Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

@Edel - das ist doch nur Alibiübung (nehm ich mal an), damit er auch über die Politiker & Co. im gleichen Ton herfallen kann glaubst Du nicht auch

linar

....nicht eben beruhigend

A Special Gold Report

Jack Chan
http://www.simplyprofits.org
Aug 20, 2006

..............Gold bulls have been anticipating a contraction on the ratio between the Dow and gold, and most expect this ratio to return to a single digit, because it has happened before, meaning a four digit gold price and a four digit for Dow. So far, the ratio has contracted from a high of 42 in 1999 to a recent low of 17, while a bullish divergence has been developing since 2003. As long as the low of 17 is not exceeded to the downside, we could see the ratio expand once again based on the bullish divergence. And that means the Dow will outperform gold, as sector rotation begins to favor growth stocks over resource stocks once again. This is a total contrast to current general consensus that the resource stocks are just warming up while growth stocks are about to collapse. What do you see?...................
.........Another piece of evidence that the commodity bull cycle may be ending is the long term CRB chart. For the first time since the commodity bull began in 2001, we have a MACD sell signal, while prices are threatening to break the five year uptrend. One thing for sure: this is not an ideal time to be investing in resource stocks, not until after a major correction anyways. This long term CRB chart is a stark contrast to the general consensus that the commodity bull is still in its infancy. You make the call!...........

full story: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan082006.html

linar

we will see...

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
G.Tanashian rechnet mit dem schwindenden Gefühl seiner Landsleute über die wirkliche Lage in den USA ab.

"....Its time has not yet come and it will not come until a majority of the public learns how to look beyond the headlines and hype and figures out that 1+1 does not equal 10 trillion...."

http://www.321gold.com/editori…hian/tanashian082106.html

Grüsse

Alles anzeigen

Interessanter Artikel; bin auf's "unfinished business" gespannt...

Zitat

Original von LuckyFriday

Hallo Edel Man,
ebenso wenig taugt es, sich nur auf die Fundamentaldaten zu verlassen. Denn danach müsste Gold bei mindestens 2000 oder 3000 USD pro Unze und Silber vielleicht bei einem Zehntel davon stehen.
(...)

Hallo Lucky,

was Du sagst klammert aber die Umstände aus, die dazu führen, dass Gold eben nicht bei 2000$ steht.

Wenn man z.B. Marktmacht, Manipulation, im Ohr nachklingende Renditeversprechen, bzw., Interesse / Desinteresse bei den Käufern, zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt, als Teil der "Fundamentals" ansieht, die ja mehr sind, als nur "Fundamentaldaten", - es gehören sicher auch bestimmte schlichte Gegebenheiten dazu (s.o.), - dann kann man auch zum Schluss kommen, dass der Preis für Gold & Silber sogar gerechtfertigt ist, im Moment.

... Eben weil im Augenblick noch genügend Leute einverstanden sind, mit dem bestehenden Geldsystem, sehen die Fundamentals so aus im Moment!

Dass sich das absehbar ändern wird, weil die ebenfalls zu den Fundamentals gehörigen Exponentialkurven bei Verschuldung & Geldmenge hässliche Begleiterscheinungen haben, sobald die durch sie ausgelösten Ungleichgewichte wieder ausgeglichen werden, ist eigentlich klar dabei.
Und auf einen erwartbaren Meinungsumschwung bei der Masse, der die Dinge auch so bewerten lassen & sehen lassen wird, kann man setzen, das machen wir hier ja auch alle.
Nur: wann so ein Umschwung dann kommt, ist eine Ausgeburt des Zufalls.

Und das wichtige dabei ist: Über das Wann können Charts ebensowenig zweifelsfrei Auskunft geben, wie die Fundamentals. Ob die Abzweigungen "diesmal" oder erst "nächstes Mal" genommen werden, weiss man ja immer erst während des Ablaufs der entsprechenden Entwicklung.

Am besten ist es halt, wenn man einen Markt vor sich hat, dessen Fundamentals bullish sind & dessen Charts an Wegscheiden stehen.

Dann kann man mit höherer Wahrscheinlichkeit davon ausgehen, dass man recht behält, wenn man bullish tippt.

Grüsse & Euch eine gute Woche noch,
gutso

PPS: Oh, sehe grade, Edel Man war vorher schon am Schreiben. ...

TODAY'S HIGH ALERT - Anthony Wile - Monday, August 21, 2006

.......The City and Wall Street community have a vested interest in keeping prices steady and often trending lower. They don’t want to let anyone else in the game and rising prices tend to undermine control. This latest nickel flap is only the most recent example of what will likely go on in the metals markets for a number of years to come. The betting here is nearly another defade..........
.............
Rather than let nickel ride, given that it claimed less than eight hours worth of deliverable nickel in its warehouses, the London Metal Exchange set forth a number of rules to damp trading and lower prices. In “LME intervenes to ease nickel panic,” The Australian enumerates regs (among others) as follows, calling the intervention “extraordinary:”

-Traders with "short" positions, betting on price falls, may defer settlement of their trades.

-Anyone with a short position unable to make physical delivery could postpone delivery at a cost of $US300 a tonne per day...........

..........Anybody see a pattern here? It’s in commodities prices, especially metals. They are up across the board and will continue to move up even as all sorts of explanations are offered and alarmist “actions” are taken to damp prices dow..........

Conclusion:
Nothing is going to keep the price of commodities from going up - up and up and on a fairly steady basis. Free-market thinkers who wish to take advantage of the great commodities bull markets of the 2000s with look for the kinds of anomalous markets that nickel currently represents. There will be others, certainly over the next few years - and all the palaver in the world will not explain away the profits that can be made.

http://www.freemarketnews.com/…high.asp?nid=5814&wid=134

Denke das ist ein interessanter Artikel...es geht ja nicht nur um Nickel

linar

...ich bin noch nicht dazu gekommen alles zu lesen wird Bettlektüre

......The LME "Also suspended rules that require some traders with big long positions – those betting on rising prices – to lend metal to short-sellers who need to settle trades", probably in response to the terror of longs who, already cheated out of their money by the corrupt LME, would be forced to lend their metal to some guys who are bankrupt! What are the chances of getting it back?

Simon Heale, who is the worthless chief executive of the LME, is reported to have said: “Nickel stocks are at historically low levels and we now have a genuine material shortage. Our first priority is to ensure that trading remains orderly and to prevent the risk of settlement defaults.” Hahahaha! You would think that Mr. Heale would have a "first priority" to make sure that they don't get into this damned mess in the first place! This irresponsible doofus knew the size of the short positions, he knew the size of physical metal inventory against those short positions, and he knew that nickel was rising in price (and has been rising for months and months). And yet, his only duty, as chief executive of the LME, is to ignore all of that, and merely "ensure trading remains orderly" now that his towering incompetence has resulted in a blowup? Hahaha!........

****Mogambo sez: Some things never change, and one of them is the Boring Advice Of The Mogambo (BAOTM); buy some gold, some oil, and lots and lots of silver, and you will make a lot of money, or don't and you won't. It doesn't get simpler than that!

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/aug232006.html

linar

Dear Members,

Today will be a very quiet day and one can therefore just enjoy watching the market or do some other pending work without doing much in the market as the market will be very boring today. Grains could however bring some excitement.

Metals will trade sideway therefore avoid trading them. Tomorrow is likely to be quite an interesting day and you should thus wait for my update on metals. Tueday recommended selling copper and gold around $628.80 paid nicly.

Today grains should move up though it is Thursday. If they manage to do this, then I see a sharp rising.

S&P AND DOW will move sideway but they should close high so don't remain on short- this is what Mars and Jupiter are showing. S&P is trading at 1295, and around the 1294/3 level will be good buying for the short-term.

Coffee and cotton should move sideway and therefore those who want to book profit can do that. I will however wait for the next two more days.

I recommend holding sell position in the Euro and Swiss Franc, negative day for other currencies, while remaining positive for the dollar. Sell the Australian dollar, which is trading at 0.7635.

PLEASE WAIT FOR TOMORROW’S UPDATE ON METALS, CURRENCIES AND ALL OTHER AREAS, AS INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT COULD BE QUITE INTERESTING.

ALERT

Finally, today there was some interesting news to the effect that Pluto has been demoted as a planet. I have never featured Pluto in my studies for predicting the market, and this will therefore not result to any changes in my theory. Indeed there are some who used to be surprised when I mentioned that I don’t consider Pluto, Neptune and Uranus in my study as planets.
More information on this can be found at: http://WWW.CNN.COM OR http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/space/08/24/pluto.ap/index.html

Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra, Thursday, 9.30am EST
*********************************

Dear Members,

Since we bought soy and corn they are trading around the same level and we are looking for a turn-around, which should be a big one. Meanwhile we’ll keep ourselves ready to book profit - I will update you on that.

Today's trades:

We will sell the market S&P (currently at 1301) or Dow again today in opening and look for 6 to 7 points gain and book it.

Metals will trade higher but I expect to book profit in copper, therefore trade accordingly. Today's best trade will be to sell copper. September copper is trading at $352.80 and I will let know when to buy or you can buy 5 points down from here we should see today only.

Gold may also move up to $629.50 and from there it will come down, avoid silver. Sell only copper and gold at higher side.

We booked profit in pound and today is time to sell 1 contract of EURO at $1.2848 and Swiss Franc 0.8141.

Coffee went up quite nicely and made more than what we should be making in short-term on our investment, but I will wait for two more days.

These should be today's trades.

A reminder of this week’s newsletter;

It is very important that gold trades positive from Tuesday and for the rest of the week. Failure to achieve this may bring about a short-term bear trend that could force gold prices to go below $600.

I am happy to know that the daily update is helping in trading and I will therefore continue to send it as usual everyday before the market opens.

The Trading Range for gold will be $628.80 to 607.20 and it looks like it will move up and down a minimum three times within this range, therefore trade accordingly. If it breaks down, then you should get out from the position. You can start the week with a small buying position.

Oil is trading down and it should – The Newsletter says "The Trading Range for crude oil will be $71.80 to $67.80 and you can start the week with selling on rising (September contract).

Thanks & God Bless

Sharma Mahendra, Wedneday, 09.30am EST

Gold Does Not Run Its Own Course

By Marino G. Pieterse

August 24, 2006

http://www.goldletterint.com

Since having increased within two years by 25% from $ 400 to $ 500 early December 2005, the gold price showed a strong boost in the first five months of this year reaching a high of $ 725,75 on May 12, an increase of 40% within just four and a half months.

Considering the balance in demand and supply, which both showed a 5% increase in 2005, only a strong rise in demand in 2006 would justify the steep price increase. While the World Gold Council did expect growing investment demand to remain the main driver for a further gold price increase in 2006, the price sensitivity of higher gold prices on demand has been greatly underestimated. Recently published figures by the World Gold Council show that implied net retail investment (bars & coins, other and ETF's) declined from 298 tonnes in the first quarter of 2006 to 129 tonnes in the second quarter of 2006, including a significant drop in ETF's demand from 109 tonnes to 39 tonnes.

During the second quarter of 2006 jewellery demand, which is representing 60% of total demand, remained relatively stable with an increase of 9 tonnes to 541 tonnes compared to the first quarter, but declined 28 tonnes compared to the fourth quarter of 2005 and a robust 233 tonnes compared to the second quarter of 2005.

These figures demonstrate that retail investment demand has even been more price sensitive to higher gold prices than jewellery demand. Because the latter being by far the main source of demand, might have accustomed to the current price level of around $ 620, I expect that a new buying momentum has been created. This could be underpinned by demand of ETF's picking up again in the second half of the year to a targeted quarterly level of 100-120 tonnes.

With jewellery demand having declined 408 tonnes to 1,073 tonnes and implied net investments having declined 76 tonnes in the first half year of 2006 compared to the first half of 2005, it should be evident that considering the strong gold price increase of 40% in the first five months of 2006, gold didn't run its own course.

As such, the substantial correction of 22% in conjunction with the correction of the overall metal markets, to an intermediate low of $ 567 at June 20, just five weeks after having topped a high of $ 725 had been reached, is really surprising.

The good news is that the gold price has bottomed out in June and has recovered to well above $ 600 again, thereby underpinning my opinion that the odds are in favour for a renewed growth in demand.

US 'could be going bankrupt'

By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor

(The Telegraph)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

Paul Ashworth, of Capital Economics, was more sanguine about the coming retirement of the Baby Boomer generation. "For a start, the expected deterioration in the Federal budget owes more to rising per capita spending on health care than to changing demographics," he said.

"This can be contained if the political will is there. Similarly, the expected increase in social security spending can be controlled by reducing the growth rate of benefits. Expecting a fix now is probably asking too much of short-sighted politicians who have no incentives to do so. But a fix, or at least a succession of patches, will come when the problem becomes more pressing."

Also diese Studie würde ich gern lesen. Es ist ja dieselbe, über die ein anderer Verschwörungsthread hier berichtete, daß sie unzufälligerweise zur Zeit der Israelischen Angriffe auf den Süd-Libanon erschien.

Helga, sag mal was hast du denn fuer einen Salon ?
Das hat doch nichts mit Libanon oder Verschwoerung zu tun wenn die Amis bis auf die Decke Geld drucken muessen die doch mal pleite gehen.Ich war grade dort bei denen,da hat sich fast alles verdreifacht in 8 Jahren bei der ""stillen"" Inflation dort.
Die drucken Geld wie Confetti, der Aschermittwoch und das Kopfweh kommt noch.

Mfg

Eldo

Zitat

Original von Eldorado
Helga, sag mal was hast du denn fuer einen Salon ?
Das hat doch nichts mit Libanon oder Verschwoerung zu tun wenn die Amis bis auf die Decke Geld drucken muessen die doch mal pleite gehen.

Mfg

Eldo

Ich halte das auch für Unsinn, wurde aber hier irgendwo von Verschwörungstheoretikern diskutiert; hieß irgendwie: Knallt es links, schau nach rechts. Aber ist auch egal, da eh Hirngespinst
Aber bis die Babyboomer verrentet werden, ham wa ja noch ein paar Jährchen...

Die genaue Zeit wanns kracht weiss keiner, aber nach einen eventuellen Angriff auf Iran oder Syria spannt sich die Lage noch mehr.
Dann kostet es mehr den SUV oder Ford Mustang aufzutanken und mehr Bodybags werden heimgeschickt.