Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://biz.thestar.com.my/common/images/thestar_140x45.gif]


    http://biz.thestar.com.my/news…ness/8088578&sec=business


    Monday May 31, 2004


    Tin mining makes major comeback


    By HANIM ADNAN

    THE tin mining industry, written off as an obsolete industry for almost two decades, is set to make a major comeback, thanks to China's huge demand, new uses for the metal and the new highs the price of the commodity has reached on the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) and the London Metal Exchange (LME).


    The Malaysian Chamber of Mines, which has continued to champion the cause of the local tin mining industry despite the metal market's collapse and the cessation of operation of the London-based International Tin Council's buffer stocks in 1985, is optimistic that these encouraging developments would give renewed hope to the industry.


    The chamber's executive director, Muhamad Nor Muhamad, said the chamber had charted a five-year road map under the grand mineral resources master plan, which forms part of its Vision 2008, to aggressively promote tin as well as other major metals and minerals like iron ore, gold, bauxite, sand-silica, aggregates, limestone, clays, kaolin and coal in Malaysia.


    Zitat

    “Once in place we believe that the mining industry in Malaysia, given the full recognition and support by the Government, will be able to attract foreign investments over the next five years,” he told StarBiz in an interview in Kuala Lumpur.


    Muhamad said that despite its lesser role in terms of production, the tin mining sector could still be considered one of the major contributors to the country's economy alongside the oil and gas, and palm oil, stressing that the industry needed the Government's continuing support to return it to its former glory.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://biz.thestar.com.my/arch…1/business/b_4muhamad.jpg]


    Last year, Malaysia's tin production stood at only about 3,358 tonnes, a far cry from its heydays. “This year, we expect the same level of production, unless more new tin mining areas can be opened up,” he added.


    Muhamad said given that tin price was trading above US$9,000 per tonne, the chamber was pushing hard to ensure that both the federal and state Governments would open up more tin mining areas and give leases to interested groups.


    Zitat

    “We believe that states like Perak, Kelantan, Pahang, Johor, Terengganu and Sabah still have large deposits of tin and other minerals just waiting to be explored and mined,” he added.


    Muhamad said even after the tin market collapsed miners, including the chamber’s members, had continued to seek approvals to carry out more prospecting, exploration and mining activities in Malaysia but the state Governments had been reluctant to issue more licences and leases due to profit concerns.


    The Malaysian Chamber of Mines was incorporated on Dec 10, 1914, under the Federated Malay States Chamber of Mines Incorporated Enactment No. 25 of 1914, which is now known as the Malaysian Chamber of Mines Incorporation Act 1914.


    It is the only chamber in the country to have been established via an Act of Parliament.


    Today, it has 127 members from major mining management groups, mining companies, mining and mineral associations, consultants, engineers and individuals.


    According to Muhamad, it is timely for the state governments to be more flexible in their policies and allow potential miners to rework the mines, especially in view of the insatiable demand from China, at least over the next two to three years, and the resurgence of tin uses in various industries.


    Zitat

    “We (miners) have been entrepreneurs for decades. Just leave the decision to us whether a venture is going to be profitable or unprofitable. Just allow us to prospect, explore and mine,” he added.


    In the case of tin, the chamber believes that Malaysia has the capability to produce about 10,000 tonnes a year in the near future. As at end-December last year, there were 54 mines in operation in the country.


    Zitat

    “Of course, Malaysia cannot produce as much as before because most good virgin grounds for mining are gone.


    “However, there is still potential if land can be made available to miners, like those in mountain ranges and in even offshore areas in Malacca, Terengganu, Johor and Perak,” he said.


    Last Friday, tin closed at its all-time high of US$9,840 (RM37,392) per tonne on the KLTM. At such a price level, Malaysian tin miners could possibly reap good profits based on their current estimated average production cost of RM2.50 per kg or RM2,500 per tonne, Muhamad said.

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    http://www.mineweb.net/fast_news/326064.htm


    Gold long positions fall


    By: Gareth Tredway
    Posted: '31-MAY-04 08:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004


    The net-speculative long position in COMEX gold fell to 22,209 contracts as of May 25, compared to 30,066 on May 18, reports Reuters.


    Non-reportable net long positions slipped to 27,030 contracts, from the 30,066 contracts a week earlier. Open interest inched down to 252,665 lots from 253,647 previously.


    The latest weekly Commitments of Traders data is issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

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    http://www.mineweb.net/fast_news/326066.htm


    Silver contracts down


    Posted: '31-MAY-04 08:59' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004


    The net speculative long position in COMEX silver fell to 23,340 contracts on May 25 from 26,183 on May 18, reports Reuters.


    The non-reportable net long position slipped to 25,781 contracts from 27,141 previously. Open interest eased to 88,330 contracts on May 25 from 89,376 lots on May 18.


    The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issues the latest weekly Commitments of Traders data.

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    http://news.ft.com/servlet/Con…907917666&p=1012571727088


    Beware bursting of the money bubble

    Published: May 30 2004 19:30


    The financial markets have been hit by shocks from the Middle East over the past few weeks. But the real risk to world markets is that the speculative bubbles and "carry trades" that have developed as a consequence of American monetary policy over the past year will unravel as the US Federal Reserve moves to increase interest rates.


    During the Nasdaq bubble of 1998-2000, US interest rates ranged between 4 per cent and 6 per cent. Since June 2003, they have stood at 1 per cent. The advent of such low money market yields has unleashed speculative capital flows to asset classes that played no role in the technology bubble of four years ago.


    The first bubble that US monetary policy has spawned is in east Asia. America cannot finance an external deficit equal to 5 per cent of gross domestic product with 1 per cent yields, so east Asian central banks have intervened heavily to support the dollar exchange rate. This has encouraged faster monetary growth and a capital spending boom in China, which has turned the country into the world's largest consumer of many industrial raw materials. The ensuing commodity boom is now threatening to increase inflation everywhere.


    American monetary policy has also had a dramatic impact on many other asset markets. There were significant price gains during 2003 and early 2004 in emerging market debt, high-yield debt, government bonds and property, as well as equities.


    Wall Street has earned large profits over the past year from bond trading. The financial services sector now accounts for 31 per cent of the market capitalisation of the Standard & Poor's 500 benchmark index, up from less than 10 per cent during the late 1980s. The borrowing of primary government bond dealers has tripled to nearly $800bn during the past four years. Issuance of high-yield bonds in the US debt market rose to $175bn last year, a level just below the bubble peak of $200bn. American households refinanced $3,500bn of mortgage debt during 2003, compared with $2,500bn during 2002 and a previous peak of $750bn in 1998. American residential real estate prices also rose at a 16.7 per cent rate in the year to April, compared with gains of 6-8 per cent during 2003 and 2002.


    US monetary policy has produced great distortions on the periphery of the world economy as well. The most notable example is South Africa's currency market. According to data from the Bank for International Settlements, South Africa now has the largest currency market in the developing world. Its trading volume is now equal to 24 per cent of the country's gross domestic product compared with 4 per cent for Thailand and 2 per cent for Brazil. The rand's trading volume has increased ninefold during the past decade. South Africa also has a swap market nearly three times as large as the country's GDP. The size of South Africa's currency market and swap market is a by-product of surplus global liquidity, which has been attracted by South Africa's money market yields of 8 to 9 per cent. The large interest rate differential has produced a rand carry trade - investors borrowing in dollars to invest in the rand or rand-denominated assets - that has driven the rand/dollar exchange rate from nearly R14 to the dollar in late 2001 to R6.25 in March this year. Large flows of speculative "hot" money are behind this, which means the currency will remain volatile in the future.


    Low interest rates in the US and Europe have also encouraged a large carry trade in other currencies. The volume of currency trading in Australia and New Zealand is now 35 per cent of GDP compared with 27 per cent for the US and 18 per cent for Europe. As with South Africa, investors have flocked to the south Pacific in search of higher yield, turning the currencies into global casino chips, rather than a simple means of payment.


    The Fed's mandate is to make monetary policy for the US economy. It has adhered to a highly stimulative policy because, until recently, US employment growth was subdued and the core inflation rate had collapsed. The central bank has not seen much risk of a liquidity bubble in the US because margin debt - money borrowed from brokers to buy shares - has remained below 2 per cent of GDP, compared with 18 per cent on the eve of the 1929 stock market crash. US banks also behaved far more prudently in the bubble economy of the late 1990s than during previous booms. They securitised their potentially bad loans and sold them to pension funds, mutual funds and insurance companies rather than keep them on their own books. As a result, America has had only 21 US bank failures since 2000, compared with nearly 500 during the early 1990s, when banks experienced large losses on property lending.


    Now, the buoyancy of the US economy has encouraged the Fed's rate- setting open market committee to open the door to a possible increase in interest rates, signalling an end to America's experiment with ultra-low money market yields.


    It will be up to other central banks to prepare for the consequences.


    David Hale is a Chicago-based economist

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    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,121346,00.html


    'Deadly Blast Near 'Green Zone'


    At least two killed, 20 injured after car bomb explosion in central Baghdad; two Americans killed in clashes with Shiite militiamen in Kufa


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    http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/s…?siteSect=143&sid=4969896


    31. Mai 2004 13:18

    Grosse Öl-Vorkommen in Chinas Nordwesten gefunden

    PEKING - In Chinas Nordwesten ist ein grosses Öl-Feld entdeckt worden. Dessen Vorkommen sollen alle anderen Funde seit einem Jahrzehnt übersteigen.


    Gemäss ersten Schätzungen der staatlichen Ölfördergesellschaft China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) lagern in dem Öl-Feld Xinfeng in der Provinz Gansu etwa 108 Millionen Tonnen Rohöl.


    Vermutlich seien die Vorräte noch grösser. Geologische Probleme erschweren und verteuern gemäss der Darstellung von CNPC aber die Erschliessung dieser Öl-Vorkommen. Auf Grund sinkender Fördermengen in den grossen Feldern im Osten verlagern die Ölgesellschaften ihre Suche stärker in den Westen des Landes.


    Der wachsende Bedarf Chinas ist einer der Hauptgründe für den massiven Anstieg des Öl-Preises auf dem Weltmarkt. China ist hinter den USA der zweitgrösste Ölimporteur der Welt. Im ersten Quartal 2004 steigen sind die Rohölimporte um mehr als 30 Prozent gegenüber der Vorjahresperiode. 311313 may 04



    SDA-ATS

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.reuters.de/images/reuters.gif]


    http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=520441&section=news


    Notenbank:


    Italienisches Defizit 2004 über Drei-Prozent-Grenze


    Montag 31 Mai, 2004 11:39 CET

    Rom (Reuters) - Italien wird nach Ansicht des Chefs seiner Notenbank in diesem und im kommenden Jahr die Defizitgrenze der Europäischen Union (EU) überschreiten.


    Im laufenden Jahr erwarte er eine Neuverschuldung von 3,5 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts, sagte Notenbankchef Antonio Fazio am Montag. Auch 2005 werde das Land mit 4,0 Prozent deutlich über der von der EU verlangten Drei-Prozent-Grenze liegen. Die drittgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Euro-Zone könne in diesem Jahr nur mit einem Wachstum von einem Prozent, im kommenden Jahr von zwei Prozent rechnen,
    "wenn das internationale Umfeld günstig ist".


    Die Regierung geht bislang von einem Wirtschaftswachstum 2004 von 1,2 Prozent und einer Neuverschuldung von 2,9 Prozent aus. Im Gegensatz zu Deutschland und Frankreich rechne er im April und Mai für Italien mit einem weiteren Rückgang der Industrieproduktion, sagte Fazio

  • Wenn ich alles richtig verstanden habe, hat die deutsche Regierung bereits 1 Milliarde Euro Mehreinnahmen auf Grund ihrer Tabak Steuererhöhung eingerechnet. Obwohl uns doch immer gesagt wird, wir sollen aufhören mit dem Rauchen, weil es so schädlich ist, und auch die ständigen Tabaksteuererhöhungen damit begründen.


    Einer Regierung die vordergründig vorgibt die Gesundheit ihrer rauchenden Landsleute schützen zu wollen, aber in Realität sich nur am Suchtpotential der Raucher steuerlich bereichern möchte, und diese Ausnutzung der Raucher auch gleich noch mit wieder einer zusätzlichen Milliarde Euro in die Bilanz rechnet um ihr Haushaltsbilanz Defizit auszugleichen, geschieht es mehr als nur Recht, wenn nun wie es aussieht, die Raucher auf günstigere Tabak Produkte, und auf billigere Schmuggelware umsteigen, und dadurch im Endeffekt eventuell sogar nicht nur keine Steuer Mehreinnahmen erreicht werden können, sondern sogar im Endeffekt Steuer Mindereinnahmen daraus resultieren, ohne dass weniger geraucht wird.


    In Thailand kostet eine Stange Marlboro (inkl. Steuern) bei der englischen Tesco Lotus Super Markt Kette, gerade mal 500.- ThaiBath. Das sind ca. 10.- Euro. Lokale Marken sind pro Stange bereits für weniger als 350.- THB, oder ca. 7.- Euro zu haben.


    Im Nachbarland Cambodia sind Marken Zigaretten sogar weitere 30% billiger, als in Thailand zu bekommen. Darum gehört leider auch in Thailand der Zigaretten Schmuggel zum Alltag.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.reuters.de/images/reuters.gif]


    http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=520538&section=news


    Verband:


    Absatz versteuerter Zigaretten bricht ein


    Montag 31 Mai, 2004 15:48 CET


    Berlin (Reuters) - Die Zigarettenindustrie geht davon aus, dass der Absatz versteuerter Zigaretten in diesem Jahr um bis zu 20 Prozent zurückgeht. Damit würden die von der Bundesregierung einkalkulierten Mehreinnahmen durch die erhöhte Tabaksteuer nicht erreicht.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://wwwi.reuters.com/images…41_RTRDEOP_2_PICTURE0.jpg]


    Der Vorstandsvorsitzende des Verbands der Cigarettenindustrie (VdC), Pascal Chevallier, sagte der Zeitung "Die Welt" vom Dienstag laut Vorabbericht, allein im April sei die versteuerte Zigarettenmenge gegenüber dem Vorjahr um 23,1 Prozent auf 9,2 Milliarden Stück gesunken. Damit könne die von der Bundesregierung eingeplanten Mehreinnahmen von einer Milliarde Euro durch die erhöhte Tabaksteuer nicht erreicht werden.


    Chevallier sagte, der Absatzrückgang versteuerter Zigaretten bedeute nicht, dass weniger geraucht werde. Raucher seien stattdessen auf Feinschnitt und Schmuggelware umgestiegen. Jede zehnte Zigarette in Deutschland sei Schmuggelware. Im Jahr 2003 seien 133 Milliarden Zigaretten verkauft worden.

  • Warren


    Was Weigl da in seinem Rundbrief zum Silber schreibt, kann ich mir nicht nur vorstellen, sondern ich bin überzeugt davon, dass dies aus einer langfristigeren Perspektive, sogar noch eine reine Untertreibung darstellt!


    Zitat

    "Mittelfristig können wir uns 20 bis 30 $ je Feinunze vorstellen. Sollte, bedingt durch die weltweit hohen Staatsverschuldungen, eine Reinflationierung eintreten, kann auch wieder die Spitze von 1980 mit 50$ je Feinunze erreicht werden."


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

  • Hallo thai,


    war dieser Link schon drin in deinem Thread?
    Ich habe ihn hauptsächlich deshalb reinkopiert, weil mir die genannten
    Kursziele gefallen, sie sind sehr realistisch. Vor allem der Hinweis auf die
    zweite Chance, ich habe ihn mir zu Herzen genommen und die letzten
    Tage kräftig in Silberbarren investiert.


    Gruss


    Warren

  • Warren


    Kann Dir die Frage leider selbst nicht mit Sicherheit beantworten. Dazu müssten wir eine brauchbare Such Engine für alle Threads zur Verfügung haben. Glaube mich zu erinnern, dass der Beitrag von mir selbst, oder einem anderen User bereits hier, oder in einem der vielen anderen Threads gepostet wurde.


    Wie auch immer, lieber 2 x als kein x


    Der Weigl weiss beim Silber schon sehr genau wovon er schreibt, doch wird er sich, vermute ich, jeweils etwas in seinen Preisaussagen zügeln müssen, um nicht reisserisch zu erscheinen. Weil leider die grosse Masse von Anlegern, und Analysten immer noch keinen Deut von dem verstanden hat was an Preisentwicklung ++ % beim Silber in den nächsten Jahren alles auf uns zukommen wird.


    Die Rundbriefe vom Feigl kann man übrigens gratis per E-Mail bestellen.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

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