Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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http://www.thestar.com.my/news…nation/8124886&sec=nation

Dr M: Use yen as East Asia’s trading currency

TOKYO: Japan should stop trying to prop up the US dollar and instead make the yen the trading currency of East Asia, said Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

While noting that it was understandable for Japan to continue to shore up the US currency because it holds a lot of dollars in reserve, the former Malaysian Prime Minister warned that it could not “go on forever.”

“The US must maintain the value of its currency by reducing its huge deficit and living within its means.

“Whatever Japan does, its yen is bound to appreciate against the US dollar.

“What it means is that Japanese goods have become expensive for South-East Asia. They cannot compete with some American goods, but more significantly with Chinese goods.

“This is not healthy. This is the result of using the US dollar as a trading currency and valuing other currencies against it,” said Dr Mahathir in his speech entitled East Asia Community and the Role of Japan at Keio University here yesterday.

The university had earlier bestowed an honorary Doctorate of Law on him.

Dr Mahathir suggested that the Japanese currency be used to replace the US dollar as the trading currency for East Asia and in return the region agreed on a trading currency backed by gold.

Zitat

“East Asian countries need not have an East Asian currency for domestic use as the euro is in the European Union. To give it reference value against currencies of countries of East Asia, we can base the East Asia Trading Currency on gold.”

Gold can fluctuate in value in any currency but the fluctuation would never be very wide,” he said, adding that such a trading currency would be more stable than the US dollar, euro and even the yen.

Zitat

Dr Mahathir also touched on the need for East Asia to unite as Europe had done with the formation of the EU after centuries of going to war against each other..

Zitat

“We must learn from Europe, from France and Germany. We must all admit our mistakes, not hide them or ignore the past as if it did not happen."

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“We must admit that it happened and that we are truly sorry that it did. Having done that, we must look at the present and the future and work for the betterment of our life together,” he added.

Saying Asian countries which have suffered from invasion and war must be realistic, Dr Mahathir said demands for reparations and apologies must stop.

This was in reference to constant calls by countries invaded by Japan during the Second World War for compensation to victims and for Japan to apologise for the atrocities committed then.

“If France and Germany can seemingly forget and forgive, East Asian countries too must learn to forget and forgive. It will be very difficult. It will be painful. It will take time.

“But we cannot forever allow the past to shackle us, to stop our progress. The baggage of history must be left behind,” Dr Mahathir said.

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June 3 - Gold $387.70 down $3.60 - Silver $5.71 down 10 cents

Still Rope A Dope Time

Zitat

To reach a port we must sail, sometimes with the wind and sometimes against it. But we must not drift or lie at anchor...Oliver Wendell Holmes

GO GATA!!!

Talk about a lousy day. This MIDAS may be more abbreviated than most. This is the third time I have put it together. Thus far, two electrical stoppages have wiped out the commentary this afternoon even though I have been saving it as I go along. Very strange. This is the third day in a row of outages as we experienced two violent storms the past two evenings here in Dallas.

Once again The Gold Cartel beat up on gold after firmer trading in the early going and for the second day in a row, gold was battered by cabal forces for $3+ even though the euro was still higher on the day at the time. Most of the pundits will say the opposite (gold fell as a result of a weakening dollar), however, anyone who watched the gold action knows otherwise. We have to do a Mohammed Ali Rope A Dope routine to withstand this constant mugging by The Gold Cartel. They key is to hang in there, keep standing, don't be knocked out, and be prepared to counterattack.

The gold and silver takedowns this week are completely out of whack with what is going on in other financial markets and in the geo/political world. The Gold Cartel and Working Group on Financial markets have been as blatant with their manipulation as they ever have been and, as usual, don’t seem to care who notices. They don’t give a crud because nobody takes them on except the GATA ARMY and, in the case of Morgan, Blanchard & Co with their lawsuit in New Orleans District Court. There aren’t any constraints for their ripping off the public. They operate with impunity. Long Live Mussolini-like economic fascism in America! Screw the little guy!

Here is a look see at the bums in action:

From Sarge:

See a pattern here??

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Followed almost immediately by another Café member:

Hey Bill,

Have you noticed the cartel driven decline in gold has occurred exactly as the London market is closing? Check out the Kitco 3 day chart. A new strategy for their "game?"…..

Bill,

Coinciding with the London close, the following events occurred simultaneously:

1. Stocks rallied
2. Bonds rallied
3. Dollar rallied
4. Gold declined
5. Oil declined

I can hear the bulls now; "George Tenet’s resignation is GOOD NEWS!"

-END-

Why does the Gold Cartel make their move once the London PM Fix is over?

Most all substantial physical gold market transactions are priced based on the London PM Fix price. Once over, most bullion deals won’t be done until the AM Fix, but the PM Fix is the one which carries most of the weight. Thus, The Gold Cartel can play with the derivatives markets on the Comex/OTC markets to knock the price down and not have to use up extra ammo taking on physical market buyers. They have been at this for years. Just another one of THEIR modus operandi.

Why is gold being savaged this week? Some candidates:

*President Bush is on his way to Europe for D-Day celebrations.

*President Bush could be in serious trouble (see Appendix). All scandals start small and then grow. Too much of a coincidence for me that CIA director resigns at the same time Bush puts an attorney on stand by for possible implication in a felony criminal investigation (see story in Appendix).

*The G-7 is meeting off the Georgia coast this weekend.

*Something is really wrong behind the scenes and the powers want gold in the weeds in case it breaks.

The gold open interest fell another 3388 contracts to 225,333. The cabal took the spec longs out first, then did the same to the tech shorts. Now, that those spec shorts have covered, The Gold Cartel is on the attack again.

Silver showed some early strength and then tanked when gold was bashed. The silver open interest rose 1697 contracts to 87,588. Since it rose on the big down move yesterday, it tells us spec shorts are moving in.

One small positive for the day:

The Comex silver stocks went down again. This time to the tune of 465,534 ounces. The new total is 117,914,045.

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The John Brimelow Report

India is back. And who else?

Thursday, June 03, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $ 7.61, PM $ 6.48, with world gold at $390.60 and $390.90. Ample, and adequate, for legal imports. The largest Bullion buyer in the world is an importer again.

The invaluable The Bullion Desk website has today produced the official Dubai Gold Trade statistics. These reveal that gold imports into this Gulf distribution center in Q1 ’04, measured by weight, rose 15.2% above the previous quarter and 63.7% above Q1 ’03, to 37.6 tonnes. This stunningly steep inflection confirms that something powerful is indeed underway in the Middle Eastern gold market. See

http://www.dmcc.ae/activities_gold_stats.asp

Average $US prices were:

Q1 ’03 $354.68;
Q4 ’03 $392.27;
Q1 ’04 $406.67.

So this is not simply a question of price elasticity: the demand schedule for gold seems to have shifted.

Japan had a surprisingly active day, against the background of the Nikkei Dow falling 1.9% and the yen weakening a yen against the dollar. Volume leapt 169% to the equivalent of 38,276 Comex lots, the active contract closed down 12 yen, but world gold went out 70c above the NY close. There was some talk of the public buying, but open interest slipped 1,029 lots. It would appear that the key impulse came from offshore. (NY yesterday traded 59,580 contracts, with open interest dropping a further 3,388 lots to 225,333, the lowest since late 2002.)

Something powerful seems also to be going on Comex too. ScotiaMocatta notes:

Zitat

"Gold opened on the high at 396.90/397.40 and soon backed off as offers were seen from a number of sources. Overall it appeared that the market was generally long, as even a break of 1.23 on the EURO could not take the gold price higher…Funds…appeared as sellers keeping the price under pressure as the day went on."

Refco echoes this:

Zitat

"From open on COMEX, gold futures stayed on the defensive throughout the session. Trade selling was accompanied by fund selling,"

The multiplication of sellers, to say nothing of gold’s behavior today despite a weaker dollar and an initially resurgent oil price, strongly suggest that, as anticipated yesterday, opportunistic traders have noted the resolute defense of the $396 200-day moving average, and have decided to go short.

A number of observers have, according to preference, expressed elation/disappointment/ bewilderment that gold has not been more buoyant, given the strong traditionally positive news background. Refco’s James Steel is representative:

Zitat

"I’m surprised we aren’t sitting at $420 right now,"

See http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/326716.htm

This makes it timely to consider the work of Mike Bolser. Bolser, an intellectual Pioneer in the spirit of a younger, more attractive America, has been testing his hypothesis that $US gold is managed on the basis of the 200 day average of the Dollar Index price. (E.g. $US gold expressed as a function of the Dollar Index, which he refers to as the DIVG.) Yesterday he was quoted on Le Metropole Cafe saying:

Zitat

"Last week I alerted readers to a potential change in one of my metrics.…I can safely say that the Fed has made a significant alteration to its gold market capping methodology. The DIVG 200-day ma has moved from a linear 9% upslope towards a flat phase. The leveling off move is un-mistakable and signals the Fed is attempting to more strongly defend a specific DIVG level, possibly DIVG=343 to 345."

See http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis

and second attachment. The fact is, this view fits with the appearance, as noted here this week, of a shadowy, but very determined seller above $396, operating in the teeth of traditionally gold- favorable influences. Something happened to move gold back into heavy Indian buying territory, contra seasonally.

From the point of view of gold’s friends, the positive news is that, as Bolser notes and illustrates, the last time this was tried, over the course of last year at DIVG 323, it eventually failed. News from the physical market today suggests this will happen again.

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (10,195, down 67) and DOG (1960, down 29) had a bad day. The news was not particularly good. The unit labor cost for the first quarter was up .8%, far higher than estimates. An in the ISI non-manufacturing report the prices paid component was also much higher than expected, rising to 74.4 versus 68.6 in the last report. Normally, both of these surprises would be gold friendly, in a free market that is. However, in a rigged market the Orwellians want the investing public to ignore the growing inflation and sic them on a falling gold price to show how of little importance these numbers are. Sick is the right word for these market manipulators. They are creating enormous market imbalances which will have devastating market/economic consequences down the road.

The dollar only rose .1 to 89, while the euro only dropped .08 to 122.13.

The CRB was clocked for the second day in a row, falling 2.96 to 273.66. Frenetic soybeans have been all over the place. Crude oil dropped 69 cents to $39.28, however it failed to close below critical $39 support. OPEC agree to lift their quotas by 2 million barrels by July 1 and by another 500,000 barrels on August 1. The question many have is OPEC already pumping out this much?

All eyes on the jobs report tomorrow. The consensus is looking for 240,000 new jobs to have been created in May. One thing for sure, the fudgers are going all out to give Wall Street the number it wants. They have to be careful on this one. Too big a number could send the bond market in the toilet. Too weak a number will send the Democrats back on the jobless recovery warpath.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $14.4 Billion in permanent ($1.4 Billion in a Bill pass) and temporary repos today June 3rd 2004. This action caused the repo pool to rise a bit to $38.85 Billion and kept up the rising support for the DOW. The Fed continues to act in a steady DOW supporting effort content to keep the rising slope of pool assets doing its thing in the futures market.

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Steve Saville opines that the Fed has no control over the amount of repo demand:

The Repo market is basically the commercial banks borrowing from the Fed on a repurchase agreement basis for one, two, seven days, etc. Central Banks can either

1) manage the Repo rate (the rate at which the funds are borrowed) and provide as much money as the banks demand, or

2) offer a set quantity of Repo funds in an auction, where the rate is
determined by the bank bids.

Most central banks, the Fed included, uses method 1.

This means the Fed has no control over the amount demanded.
Saville’s otherwise excellent technical commentary ignores the reality of the repo "market". The Fed’s primary dealers judge the open market return potential of their submitted proposals and as long as I can remember there has never been an under-subscribed repo auction because the primary dealers can extract a very good return in a manipulated market. Today’s is a common example where $31.45 Billion in repos were submitted by the primary dealers and only $2 offered by the Fed’s "Desk".

Total Propositions Submitted (in $bil.)

31.450
Total Propositions Accepted (in $bil.)

2.000
Total Money Value of Operation (in $bil.)
2.000

The Fed’s dutiful primary dealers will take as many repos as the Fed gives them so the claim that the Fed doesn’t control the repo demand is not accurate. The demand is controlled by the market’s repo return potential (Which always seems to be high enough).

Money on the rise

The M-3 aggregates are rising along with M1 and M2. One can get confused as to the implications of each category of "money" but there is no confusion over the overall rate of "printing press" increase as shown below from the latest Fed tables:

H.6 (508) Table 2
MONEY STOCK MEASURES
Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Months from Jan. 2004 TO Apr. 2004
M1__________M2__________M3
12.6%______9.5%________9.6%

Here we see the Fed’s official monetary inflation rate very clearly. It’s between 9.6% and 12.6%. If your investment doesn’t return this rate you are losing "money". Strategic commodities are a proven method to avoid this loss, despite the temporary manipulation in precious metals. No other investment can protect one from a monetary accident cause by Fed blunders.

June 29th: The Fed’s next meeting and a possible gold attack?

Many expect a rate rise at this two-day Fed meeting. Such a rise ought to boost the dollar a bit and hit gold in the process since the two are formally linked (More on this important subject in the future). The Fed may use this opportunity to launch a major counter attack on gold, so be forewarned.

June 29th and the DIVG

An important component of the DIVG’s 200-day moving average are the expiring data values. On June 29th there is a relatively large jump upward in the expiring values from about 340 to 351. This means the REMAINING values of the average lose some "weight". This weight loss means the Fed needs that much LESS gold selling activity to force the average to conform downward (Where it seems to be headed now). It presents a good opportunity for the Fed to launch a two-pronged attack on the gold markets, a rate rise and an assist from the expiring 200-day ma data. It fits their "style".

We will have to watch the DIVG’s 200-day ma very closely in the coming days.

Mike

Some thoughts on oil:

Bill

Thought I would change the subject a bit since gold/silver was kicked around today.

Got a little bored so I went information shopping at EIA site and decided to put together some numbers for us regarding actual petroleum reserves and production for the globe. Perhaps Adrian could kick in some additional info-anyway its rather scary what you will see next. Keep in mind that world production numbers do not allow for quality crude produced for export but a total of petroleum related products that equal a barrel such as heavy oil/distilits/byproducts as such a country that produces 1.5 mbpd could feasably only produce 1.2 mbpd of refinable oil-also the production numbers do not subtract that country's own usage/consumption such as Saudi that produces 8.5 mbpd yet consumes 2 mbpd.

EIA oil producing (countries)with production over 200k bpd number 29 which includes the north sea (Norway/Denmark/Netherlands) have a TOTAL reserve life 1298 billion barrels. According to the EIA world consumption for 2004 will exceed 82 mbpd. My math says this equals 1 billion barrels every 14 days@ or 33 billion barrels a year.

WHOA!!

If my math is correct then global reserves will last roughly 37-40 years and that is without consumption growth year after year-SCARY.

Now for the gas wars as we will see 3-4$ gasoline very shortly; Shell downgrades oil, gas reserves again

by: Oil Online

Wednesday, June 02, 2004

The Royal Dutch/Shell Group has downgraded its oil and gas reserves for the fourth time this year. Shell will move another 103 million barrels from "proven" to less certain categories. Company officials said the reduction was due to accounting changes involving royalties paid in cash in Canada. Since Jan. 1, Shell has now downgraded its reserves by 4.47 billion barrels. The latest change in reserves was announced before the company's published its annual report.
------------------------------------------------------
Today's lead story:

China imports shift to clean products due to refineries maintenance

China refinery maintenance season is here, coinciding with power shortages, and a fishing ban which will keep domestic oil prices a very high levels through the summer. This in turn will affect the tanker markets from the ME Gulf, West Africa and Asia to China. Sinopec, China's largest refiner, said it would shut down parts of four plants in June, whilst PetroChina, China's number two, will shut one refinery for maintenance.

China's thin domestic inventories of gasoil, gasoline and jetfuel have caused clean imports in June to rise significantly. China imported 90,000 tonnes of gas oil in June, bringing overall imports of clean petroleum products up 80% to as much as 580,000 tonnes in the first four months of this year.

The refinery turnarounds, are coming at a time when worsening electricity shortages across the country start to bite. Summer air-conditioning usually stretched the national power grid and has spilled over to diesel generators, used as replacement sources of power.

According to Reuters, reporting from Singapore, an extended annual fishing ban on China's coastlines, to conserve marine life, due start on 16 June and which has been extended to three months from last year's two months, would mean lower diesel demand from thousands of fishing boats, which also carry smuggled oil to southern provinces.

As many as 120,000 fishing vessels will be kept in port through the summer. The boats, which are the main the main conduits of smuggled diesel from abroad, also get their supplies from small local Chinese refineries, which are normally cheaper than those sold by state refiners such as Sinopec and PetroChina.

China's gasoline exports has fallen dramatically over the last half year because of the need for fuel for a domestic car boom. Reuters report that China's domestic fuel oil prices were under heavy pressure from bumper purchases in the first months of the year, forcing importers to slash May purchases into the leading Huangpu terminal by around 30% compared to April.

Fuel oil imports have risen by 64% compared to last year and totaled 10.2 million tonnes in the first four months, partly driven by the country's soaring gas oil market, which sucked in nearly 40% of heavy refinery product that can be processed into diesel, reports Reuters.

China's appetite for clean products this summer will mostly be met by other Asian refiners. However, with the US constantly in the market for Asian gasoline to supply the western coast of the country, competition could boost prices and the demand for tankers across the Pacific.

The Best of the Best Bill

Mark

Energy News:

Caracas, June 3 - USO, the United Workers Union, the union of the Venezuela oil workers, has voted to start a general strike in all the industrial installations of the state company ECOPETROL starting June 22nd, 2004.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The continental U.S. generated 75,371 gigawatt-hours of electricity in the week ended May 29, up 1.8% from the previous week and up13.8% from the same week a year ago, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday.
Eight of nine regions in the 48 contiguous states posted increases in electric output. –END-

Tom is not alone with these feelings:

Hi Bill

Market "management," "intervention" or whatever euphemism one chooses is now nothing less than Orwellian. We appear to be ruled by tyrannical interests who act as if they own us. Will gold, like the endless government statistical lies, ever be allowed to respond to market forces again? I really wonder. My belief in any integrity in government is gone. What a sad day for the republic, absolutely shameful actions by shameless rulers.

Tom K

Perhaps our side will be able to stir the pot in the near future and turn the tables against the arrogant ones:

Dear Dr. McHugh:

In Issue No. 54 of your Financial Markets Forecast & Analysis you wrote, “There must be a crisis of historic proportions coming, and the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States is making sure that there is enough liquidity in place to protect our nation's fragile financial system. The amazing thing is, the Fed's actions mean they know what is about to happen. They are aware of a terrible, horrific imminent event. What could it be?”

I think that Greenspan & Co. know that there will be a hearing in federal court next Monday to compel J.P. Morgan & Co. to reveal the names of the central banks that Morgan has been colluding with to suppress the price of gold (and to thereby support the U.S. dollar).

I spoke to Mr. Neil Ryan earlier today. He told me that defendants Barrick and Morgan have given plaintiff Blanchard the names of the bullion banks that Barrick has been dealing with but that the defendants have refused to name the central banks. This stonewalling has forced Blanchard to move that the court issue an order compelling the defendants to disclose that and other information.

Mr. Ryan also told me that Morgan has reduced its portfolio of gold derivatives from $70 billion to about $40 billion. He also said that Barrick's gold hedges are about $2 billion in the red. He invited me to call him again in about 10 days for an update on this situation.

Information about the Blanchard v. Barrick & Morgan lawsuit may be found on the web at http://www.savegold.com.

Sincerely, Scott G. Beach

The gold shares were hit again, closing on their lows. The XAU sank 2.04 to 85.78 and the HUI was hit for 4.57 to 189.76.

Patience time again. The Gold Cartel is pulling another tantrum. It is also time to step back and view the big picture. Are the gold fundamentals worsening? Heck no! They are getting better from gold’s perspective. Iraq and Saudi Arabia are a mess. President Bush may be in real trouble with the CIA operative disclosures. Gold demand is very firm. The dollar looks shaky. The US inflation numbers continue to build. The US stock market has been held up and could bite the bullet at any time, etc.

Thanks to the propagandists and financial market manipulators operating freely in the US scene, all is projected better than what reality dictates behind the scenes. One day the Orwellians are going to run out of room to maneuver and all heck is going to break loose.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

From Capitol Hill Blue

Bush Leagues

Bush Knew About Leak of CIA Operative's Name

By Staff and Wire Reports

Jun 3, 2004, 05:28

Witnesses told a federal grand jury President George W. Bush knew about, and took no action to stop, the release of a covert CIA operative's name to a journalist in an attempt to discredit her husband, a critic of administration policy in Iraq.

Their damning testimony has prompted Bush to contact an outside lawyer for legal advice because evidence increasingly points to his involvement in the leak of covert CIA operative Valerie Plame's name to syndicated columnist Robert Novak.

The move suggests the president anticipates being questioned by prosecutors. Sources say grand jury witnesses have implicated the President and his top advisor, Karl Rove.

White House spokesmen, however, dismiss the hiring of outside counsel as a routine precaution.

"The president has made it very clear he wants everyone to cooperate fully with the investigation and that would include himself," White House press secretary Scott McClellan said Wednesday night.

He confirmed that Bush had contacted Washington attorney Jim Sharp. "In the event the president needs his advice, I expect he probably would retain him," McClellan said. There is no indication Bush has been questioned yet.

A federal grand jury has questioned numerous White House and administration officials to learn who leaked the name of CIA operative Plame, wife of former Ambassador Joseph Wilson, to the news media. Wilson has charged that officials made the disclosure in an effort to discredit him.

Bush has been an outspoken critics of leaks, saying they can be very damaging, but he has expressed doubts that the government's investigation will pinpoint who was responsible. While Bush has said he welcomed the leak investigation, it has been an awkward development for a president who promised to bring integrity and leadership to the White House after years of Republican criticism and investigations of the Clinton administration.

Even though he has a White House counsel, Bush is dependent on outside lawyers for private matters. A memo distributed to the staff last year reminded officials that the counsel's office works solely for the president in his official capacity and is not a private attorney for anyone.

Democrats seized on the news to criticize the president.

Zitat

"It speaks for itself that the president initially claimed he wanted to get to the bottom of this, but now he's suddenly retained a lawyer," said Jano Cabrera, spokesman for the Democratic National Committee. "Bush shouldn't drag the country through grand juries and legal maneuvering. President Bush should come forward with what he knows and come clean with the American people."

Plame was first identified by syndicated columnist and TV commentator Novak in a column last July. Novak said his information came from administration sources.

Wilson has said he believes his wife's name was leaked because of his criticism of Bush administration claims that Iraq had tried to obtain uranium from Niger, which Wilson investigated for the CIA and found to be untrue.

Disclosure of an undercover officer's identity can be a federal crime. The grand jury has heard from witnesses and combed through thousands of pages of documents turned over by the White House, but returned no indictments.

The probe is being handled by Chicago U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald, appointed after Attorney General John Ashcroft stepped aside from case because of his political ties to the White House.

Wilson has suggested in a book that the leaker was Lewis "Scooter" Libby, chief of staff to Vice President Cheney. But Wilson's book, "The Politics of Truth," gave no conclusive evidence for the claim.

The White House denied the claim and accused Wilson of seeking to bolster the campaign of Democrat John Kerry, for whom he has acted as a foreign policy adviser.

Wilson also said it's possible the leak came from Elliott Abrams, a figure in the Reagan administration Iran-Contra affair and now a member of Bush's National Security Council. And Rove, Bush's chief political adviser, may have circulated information about Wilson and Plame "in administration and neoconservative circles" even if Rove was not himself the leaker, Wilson wrote.

Another possibility is that two lower-level officials in Cheney's office - John Hannah or David Wurmser - leaked Plame's identity at the behest of higher-ups "to keep their fingerprints off the crime," Wilson speculated.

Sources within the investigation say evidence points to Rove approving release of the leak. They add that their investigation suggests the President knew about Rove's actions but took no action to stop release of Plame's name.

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http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=522756&section=news

Schröder fordert Umorientierung weg vom Öl

Donnerstag 3 Juni, 2004 15:13 CET

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Bonn (Reuters) - Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder (SPD) hat angesichts hoher Ölpreise und davon ausgehender Gefahren für die Weltwirtschaft eine Umorientierung der globalen Energiepolitik auf erneuerbare Energien gefordert. CSU und FDP forderten dagegen den Wiedereinstieg Deutschlands in die Atomkraft.

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weiter....

http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=522756&section=news

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http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=522878&section=news

EZB sieht Ölpreisanstieg mit wachsender Sorge

Donnerstag 3 Juni, 2004 17:37 CET

- von Ilona Wissenbach -

Frankfurt (Reuters) - Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) sieht den zuletzt rasant gestiegenen Ölpreis mit wachsender Sorge und will entschlossen gegen aufkeimende Inflationsgefahren in der Euro-Zone vorgehen. Einen unmittelbaren Handlungsbedarf sieht sie derzeit aber noch nicht: Sie ließ am Donnerstag den Leitzins erwartungsgemäß unverändert bei 2,00 Prozent und bekräftigte ihre weiter abwartende geldpolitische Haltung.

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Golden Star goes to court to block proposed Wheaton River Iamgold merger

http://www.cbc.ca/cp/business/040602/b0602114.html

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http://www.welt.de/data/2004/06/04/286698.html

Freitag, 4. Juni 2004 Berlin, 02:04 Uhr

EZB versetzt Rentenmarkt weiteren Schlag

Währungshüter setzen Inflationsprognose überraschend stark nach oben - Erste Strategen warnen vor langfristigem Kursverfall

von Anja Struve und Holger Zschäpitz

Berlin/Frankfurt a. M. - Gute Nachrichten für Rentenanleger sehen anders aus: 
Zwar ließ die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) am Donnerstag die Leitzinsen wie erwartet unverändert, dennoch hatte EZB-Präsident Jean-Claude Trichet eine Hiobsbotschaft für Anleihebesitzer im Gepäck. Angesichts des drastischen Ölpreisanstiegs sehe man sich gezwungen, die Inflationsprognose für dieses und das kommende Jahr überraschend deutlich anzuheben:

Die EZB-Ökonomen erwarten nun eine Teuerungsrate von 1,9 bis 2,3 Prozent. Noch vor drei Monaten hatten die Experten deutlich niedrigere Werte von 1,3 bis 2,3 Prozent ausgerufen. 

Kein Wunder, dass die Kurse am Rentenmarkt abermals deutlich nachgaben. Der Rentenindex Rex büßte ein halbes Prozent ein. Spiegelbildlich dazu zog die Rendite zehnjähriger Bundesanleihen auf 4,4 Prozent an. Für den ohnehin angeschlagenen Rentenmarkt brachte die EZB einen weiteren Dämpfer. Seit März dieses Jahres hat der Rex fast vier Prozent eingebüßt, das entspricht fast einer gesamten Jahresrendite.

Und auch für die kommenden Monate bleiben die Aussichten düster. Ralf Welge von Commerzbank Securities spricht bereits von einem Bärenmarkt und damit weiter steigenden Renditen und fallenden Kursen für Anleihen. "Der Ölpreis treibt die Inflationsraten in die Höhe. Wenn jetzt auch noch das Wirtschaftswachstum anzieht, dann ist das die schlechteste aller möglichen Kombinationen für Renten."

Die Malaise an den Rentenmärkten steht in krassem Gegensatz zur Beliebtheit von Anleihen bei den deutschen Privatanlegern. Seit Jahresanfang haben die Fondssparer hier zu Lande insgesamt 7,5 Mrd. Euro in diese Anlageklasse gepumpt. Dabei haben die meisten großen Fonds seit Jahresanfang kaum mehr als ein Prozent Rendite eingefahren. Noch schlechter ist die Bilanz, wenn man die letzten 52 Wochen betrachtet. Dann gibt es unter den Top Ten Fonds mit dem 1,9 Mrd. Euro schweren Robeco Lux-O-Rente sogar ein Investmentprodukt, das ein Minus von 0,1 Prozent aufweist. Die übrigen Flaggschiffe stehen mit einer Performance von rund 0,5 Prozent kaum besser da. Pessimisten wollen nicht ausschließen, dass sich dieses Jahr sogar zum schlechtesten Börsenjahr für Rentenanleger seit 1999 entwickeln könnte.

Nicht ganz so pessimistisch ist Siegfried Cordes, Fondsmanager bei Credit Suisse Asset Management in Frankfurt. Kurzfristig könne es zwar noch zu Kurseinbußen kommen, langfristig erwartet er aber eine Stabilisierung am Rentenmarkt. Seine Begründung: Während der Ölpreis kurzfristig ein inflationstreibender Faktor ist, ist mittelfristig mit negativen Auswirkungen auf das Wirtschaftswachstum zu rechnen. Sollten die Notierungen beim Schwarzen Gold dauerhaft auf dem derzeitigen Kursniveau verharren, werde der Bremseffekt umso stärker ausfallen. Nach Ansicht von Cordes dürften damit auf lange Sicht Inflation und Renditen wieder nach unten tendieren, was die Kurse am Rentenmarkt stützt. "Alles hängt am Faktor Öl", sagt Cordes.

Schaut man in die Historie, sollten Rentenanleger in der Tat kurzfristig auf der Hut sein. Denn der Ölpreis gab in der Vergangenheit häufig die Marschrichtung an den Anleihemärkten vor. Zuletzt konnte sich der hiesige Rentenmarkt noch weitgehend von den steigenden Energiekosten abkoppeln. Sollten aber die höheren Ölnotierungen auf andere Bereiche der Volkswirtschaft überspringen und etwa eine Lohn-Preis-Spirale auslösen, könnte die EZB zu einer raschen Leitzinswende gezwungen sein und damit die die Kurse bei Bundesanleihen in die Tiefe drücken. Noch geht der Markt in diesem Jahr von einer Leitzinserhöhung um lediglich 25 Basispunkte im vierten Quartal aus. In den USA sind die Anleger schon weitaus pessimistischer. Hier wird bis Ende Dezember ein Anstieg der Sätze um 100 Basispunkte erwartet. Die US-Staatsanleihen haben daher vom März-Hoch bereits acht Prozent eingebüßt.

Artikel erschienen am 4. Juni 2004

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.spiegel.de/static/sys/logo_120x61.gif]

Zehn Milliarden für den großen Bruder

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,302501,00.html

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.fondscheck.de/images/fondscheck_1.gif]

http://www.fondscheck.de/Analy…etype=5&AnalysenID=429312

03.06.2004

Goldpreis wankt

Focus Money

Das Anlegermagazin "Focus Money" nimmt erneut den Goldpreis charttechnisch genauer unter die Lupe.

Für den Amerikaner Robert Prechter, seines Zeichens Wellenzähler und Superbär, sei der Kauf von Gold ein Fehler. Deutliche Verluste würden das Edelmetall schon bald auf den Boden der Tatsachen zurückbringen, glaube er. Eine Gruppe von technischen Analysten versuche, die zyklischen Kursbewegungen zu zählen. So würden sie Kauf- und Verkaufssignale bekommen.

Prechters Investmentbrief sei von sechs ausgewerteten US-Postillen allerdings die einzige mit einer negativen Meinung.

Spätestens seit dem Ausbruch über die Widerstandszone um 330 US-Dollar Ende 2002 befinde sich Gold im Aufwärtstrend. Daran werde sich auch nichts ändern - es sei denn, das Edelmetall würde unter diese Marke fallen. Der Bereich zwischen 395 und 400 Dollar gelte Charttechnikern jetzt als robuster Widerstand. Er müsse überwunden werden.

schwejk

Frage gehorsamst

Es ist da etwa ein Hauch von Konsterniertheit in Ihren Worten zu erkennen?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

silversurfer

Momentan sieht es noch etwas beschissen aus!

Das kann sich aber sehr schnell wieder ändern.

Darum ist es so wichtig dass man in Gold, und Silber investiert bleibt, und falls finanziell möglich von diesen, in Euro gerechnet, Tiefstpreisen bei den Edelmetallen sich weiter eindeckt, oder jetzt einsteigt.

Die GATA Infos werden mir zugesandt. Sie sind wirklich sehr informativ, und interessant. Wobei zu sagen ist, dass sehr viele dieser GATA Meldungen auch anderswo im Internet gelesen werden können, unter anderem auch hier in diesem Thread. Einiges an Meldungen erfährt man zudem hier im Goldseiten-Forum sogar schneller als von der GATA. Darum steigen hier wohl auch die Besucherzahlen ständig weiter an.
Trotzdem, ohne die GATA und ihr Bemühen um das Gold und Wirtschafts-Geschehen, würden vermutlich dieses, und andere Gold Foren noch gar nicht existieren.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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Reuters

UPDATE - Norilsk says no plans to take over Gold Fields

Thursday June 3, 11:17 am ET

By Olga Popova and Maria Golovnina

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/040603…als_russia_safrica_1.html

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Press Release Source: IAMGOLD

IAMGold responds to Golden Star's latest action

Thursday June 3, 6:46 pm ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040603/to163_1.html