Dieser heutige Bericht des FED Primary Dealers und Nachfolgers der Rothschild Bank als Gold Preis "Fixing" Members der LBMA in London, *HSBC* (Hongkong and Schanghai Banking Corporation) schlägt ja wohl alles an Falschinformation, und Manipulationsversuchen, was ich in den letzten Jahren lesen durfte. Selbst Reuters könnte sich da noch ein Stück davon abschneiden.
Trotzdem wird in diesem "Beitrag" der HSBC ein steigender Gold Preis erwartet.
414.- 2004 und 436.- Dollar 2005.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.timesofmalta.com/core/images/times_s.gif]
http://www.timesofmalta.com/core/article.php?id=164819
Sunday, September 19, 2004 - Updated 09:20 (CET)
Currency Outlook
Currency considerations dominate bullion market
HSBC Bank Malta plc
Having rallied to a 15-year high of US$430/oz last January and again in March, following the Madrid bombings, gold prices have spent much of the past months in consolidation mode. Prices have generally traded in a $385-415/oz range. The lack of a clear direction in prices has mirrored that in the currency markets.
While the euro rallied to a record high against the dollar in February, rising US interest rates and worries over the impact of the strengthening currency on economic activity in Europe led to a sell-off in the currency markets. The euro fell to a recent low of 1.176 against the dollar before recovery to current levels.
Currency considerations will continue to dominate activity in the bullion market over the coming months. Although the easy gains for both gold and the euro have undoubtedly been made, our economists believe the trend for both should still be higher. The Fed is now in the process of adjusting interest rates back to a long-term neutral level, and conventional wisdom has it that this should be good for the dollar and bad for gold. However, the statistical evidence for these relationships is weak at best.
Higher interest rates will only boost the dollar if the spread between US and overseas bonds widens significantly. Our economists doubt this will happen, as they expect US economic growth to stall throughout 2005, eventually forcing the Fed to cut rates.
Moreover, the continued structural problems facing the US economy should put pressure on the dollar. Their forecast of 1.35 for the euro next year is the main driver behind their continued bullish outlook for gold.
Any currency-driven gains will be made against the headwinds of a continued surplus in the physical market.
Last year, the gold market was in oversupply by 600t, and they expect a further surplus of more than 300t this year.
Gold demand has been falling steadily since peaking in 1997.
Although the industry would like to think this is largely a result of the high and volatile prices, the reality is that consumption was also falling in periods of low and stable prices.
As yet, there is little evidence that campaigns to stimulate demand are having a material effect.
On the supply side, despite the clarion calls over recent years that mine output was set to enter a period of continued decline, aggregate mine production has changed little in recent years.
However, producers continue to unwind hedge positions and the renewal of the Central Bank Gold agreement will boost sentiment towards gold. Although gold prices in US dollars are up by almost 60 per cent from the April 2001 lows, with much of the rally reflecting the weakness in the US dollar, the performance of bullion in other currencies has been much more sanguine, if not disappointing.
While the performance of gold in local currencies has undoubtedly been a disappointment for South African, Australian and Canadian producers, the same cannot be said for the prices received by the 'new' producers. Prices received by producers in China, Russia and Peru, all of whom produce more gold now than Canada, have matched the increase in US prices, while prices in Indonesian rupiah have lagged somewhat.
In part this reflects the fact that many of the new producer currencies are either pegged directly to the US dollar or are managed to minimise currency fluctuations.
When our economists took producer prices for the 15 largest gold producing countries (excluding Uzbekistan) which together amount to 83 per cent of global output, it results that when prices in all producer currencies are taken into account, gold prices are still some 43 per cent above their 2001 lows.
High domestic inflation in a number of producing countries will diminish the real gain of the rise in prices, but nevertheless, most producers will have enjoyed a significant real gain in recent years.
That gold prices for consumers have moved broadly in line with dollar-denominated prices - except for European and Japanese consumers - partly explains why fabrication demand has been so weak in the past two years, as price-sensitive demand has been choked off by the hike in prices. Conventional wisdom has long had it that a weak dollar is good for commodity prices. Over the longer term, the relationship between foreign exchange movements and commodity prices is through changes in the underlying supply/demand balance - a weakening US dollar puts pressure on marginal non-US producers to cut back on output, while at the same time stimulating price sensitive consumption.
Increasing demand and falling supply should put upward pressure on US dollar-denominated prices. Unfortunately, trends in supply and demand change only slowly over time.
However, the funds, knowing of the long-term relationship, will buy as the dollar weakens, and as a result prices move simultaneously with currency movements. That is to say the principal short-term influence on prices remains the actions of the speculative community.
In a presentation at last year's LBMA conference in Lisbon, Steve Matthews, the commodities strategist at Tudor Investments was explicit in describing how his hedge fund views gold.
He noted that the fundamentals of the market were "super bad for trading" and that there was the "possibility that fundamental analysis is inappropriate".
Over the past two years, it has been the movement in the US dollar/euro exchange rate that has denominated movements in the gold price. At first glance, this may seem strange, given that European gold output amounts to only 20tpa and much of this is as a by-product of base metals production.
However, the funds have taken positions in the gold market based on changes in the US$/euro exchange rate, ensuring bullion price movements have mirrored forex changes.
Our end-2004 forecast for the dollar of 1.28 against the euro is consistent with a gold price of c$414/oz, while our end-2005 forecast of 1.35 for the dollar is consistent with a gold price of c$436/oz.
If, as our economists expect, 2005 proves to be a year of slowing global economic growth, this positive price outlook is likely to be supported by renewed investor interest in alternative asset classes, of which gold will definitely feature.
This report has been compiled by HSBC Bank Malta plc on the basis of economic research carried out by HSBC International Bank's team of economists and financial analysts.
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