Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Das war der offizielle Grund für die Goldpreis Korrektur!

Bemerkenswerterweise stieg der Dollar Kurs schon am Sonntag stark an! An Sonntagen wird der Dollar normalerweise eher selten so stark nachgefragt!

Die fundamentalen Gründe für diesen doch eher schon sehr unerwarteten Dollar Kurs Anstieg, werden uns wohl weiterhin verschlossen bleiben.

Dass dabei der Gold Kurs heute nicht steigen durfte war wohl ebenso klar.

Beim Silber Kurs jedoch verwundert dieser einseitig, überproportional zum Dollar korrelierende Preisabschlag von fast 3% dann doch schon ein wenig.

Im übrigen halte ich es mit der Meinung von Thom.

Es wird nicht lange dauern, bis Gold wieder steigt!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

germoney

Danke für die beiden Charts!

Kupfer hat heute ebenfalls etwas nachgegeben, doch lässt der Trend, und die jetzige Nachfragesituation beim Kupfer, mittelfristig eigentlich nur einen Weg wahrscheinlich erscheinen, denjenigen nach oben.

http://www.mrci.com/qpday.asp

Was meine Meinung zur zukünftigen Preisentwicklung bei Gold, und Silber anbelangt, diese ist bekannt, und weiterhin ungebrochen postiv. Leider ist die Bewertungsgrundlage für Rohstoffe, und Edelmetalle nach wie vor der US Dollar, sodass wir vorderhand wenigstens noch, damit leben müssen, in Euro gerchnet ,uns mit relativ kleinen Preisteigerungsraten begnügen zu müssen

Erst wenn sich die preisliche Entwicklung bei den Edelmetallen vom Dollar abkoppeln kann, wir stehen meiner Meining nach kurz davor, oder der Dollar nicht mehr die alleinige Preisbewertungsgrundlage für Gold darstellt, werden wir auch in Euro, oder Franken gerechnet von den zu erwartenden weiteren Preisanstiegen angemessen proftieren können.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

October 4 - Gold $413.50 down $5.60 - Silver $6.73 down 17 cents

Gold Cartel Attacks Right On Schedule/Russian CB News Big Deal For GATA

Zitat

"I myself was to experience how easily one is taken in by a lying and censored press and radio in a totalitarian state. Though unlike most Germans I had daily access to foreign newspapers . . . and though I listened regularly to the BBC and other foreign broadcasts, my job necessitated the spending of many hours a day in combing the German press, checking the German radio, conferring with Nazi officials and going to party meetings. It was surprising and sometimes consternating to find that notwithstanding the opportunities I had to learn the facts and despite one's inherent distrust of what one learned from Nazi sources, a steady diet over the years of falsifications and distortions made a certain impression on one's mind and often misled it."

Occasionally one was tempted to say something about this factual discrepancy to a friend, acquaintance, or a co-worker, an otherwise intelligent and educated person who did not have access to diverse sources of information.

Zitat

"Sometimes one was tempted to say as much, but on such occasions one was met with such a stare of incredulity, such a shock of silence, as if one had blasphemed the Almighty, that one realized how useless it was even to try to make contact with a mind which had become warped and for whom the facts of life had become what Hitler and Goebbels, with their cynical disregard for truth, said they were."William Shirer, The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich

So much to get into and so little time for me to do it. Am finishing preparations for my presentation this afternoon at the Toronto Natural Resource Conference, getting our Russian CB news out there, writing this early MIDAS, and dealing with the gold market bashing.

Bid after bid was hit this morning according to my sources. Gold was pounded as the dollar rose after the G-7 meeting concluded with little accomplished. (see below). For heaven’s sake, what did anyone think was going to come out of this staged meeting with our Presidential election only a month off? Did anyone really think The Working Group on Financial Markets was going to take a chance on an unpredictable outcome by allowing major changes in the financial markets? When you rig markets, you don’t take chances at such critical times. With Bush dropping in the poles, it is time to goose the dollar and US stock market to bring back the “feel-good” moments.

How about Mike Bolser’s call made months ago to look for a savage cabal attack on October 4th! He warned everyone to get out of long positions on Friday because his proprietary work told him what was coming. By the way, this is not “technical analysis.” Mike believes he has figured out the complex game plan of The Gold Cartel. When I say complex, I mean complex. Mike says it has to be to confound every one. What is key is the bad guys (bullion banks) know the formula and what the sought-after Gold Cartel price points are. Therefore, they may trade accordingly and rip you off. More fodder for the Blanchard class-action lawsuit. Anyway, congrats to Mike for his pounding-the-table call, even if it is most aggravating for our camp.

This is why MIDAS was so irritable on Friday. For tens of thousands of specs to be pouring in on the long side and gold only rally chump change, The Gold Cartel was telegraphing what their intentions were.

The good news is the cabal forces are only delaying the inevitable. The gold fundamentals remain “10+++++.”

The gold open interest rose another 3816 contracts to 209,336. JB notes that amounts to 11.8 tonnes.

Silver followed gold down with the silver open interest gaining 1759 contracts to 94,968.

Around mid-day the dollar was up .84 with the euro down 1.31. Same pattern we have seen for many months. Whenever, the dollar breaks down, the PPT yanks it back up. There is no apparent reason in my mind for the dollar to do what it did today.

Who knows how much damage The Gold Cartel will inflict on us. Historically, the specs need be flushed out before gold rallies back. The cabal forces will demand their pound of flesh. Will this time be different? Sure hope so and with the fundamentals so powerful, perhaps The Gold Cartel will lose this battle for $420 on their way to losing the war.

From a big picture standpoint, today is far more bullish than bearish with the release of a speech by Bank of Russia's deputy chairman, Oleg V. Mozhaiskov, to the London Bullion Market Association in early June. All GATA supporters owe a big thanks to Chris Powell who has worked on securing this speech for three months. Letters, faxes, emails, phone calls – Chris did it all. What a wonderful job he has done over an extended period of time. He has worked tirelessly and most effectively 7 days a week for nearly 6 years on behalf of GATA.

Why is this speech release such a big deal?

*The Russian Central Bank went out of its way to mention GATA at this prestigious conference, one infiltrated with the bad guys. The only part of Mozhaiskov’s speech in English was his reference to GATA.

*No one in the gold world would send GATA a copy of the speech in Russian, including the LBMA. We, and others, tried unsuccessfully for months. Draw your own conclusions on that one.

*The number two at the RCB went to the chairman’s office at the Moscow Norodny Bank in London to secure GATA a translation. That is like Greenspan’s number two going to the chairman’s office at JP Morgan Chase.

*Think about this. GATA can’t get the WSJ, Washington Post, Barron’s, Bloomberg to even mention the world GATA and the Russian Central Bank goes out of its way to not only mention GATA, it went way out of its way to provide us with an official English translation of Mozhaiskov’s speech.

*This is the HIGHEST levels of the mainstream financial world and bureaucracy we are talking about. To do what the Russians did is official acknowledgement of our camp’s work. This was NO off-the-cuff remark. When you then read what Mozhaiskov inferred, he might have just as well come out and stated, “GATA knows what they are talking about.”

*To mention Bank for International Settlements, J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank, is to spotlight them and what they are doing.

*There is a great deal of substance here from GATA’s viewpoint. Mozhaiskov talks of $740 to $760 gold as a fair price were it to have kept pace with inflation. When I first became interested in gold in 1996, Frank Veneroso believed the fair price to be $600 per ounce way back then. Only the price suppression scheme has kept gold from going over $700 an ounce. This is why I get so mad at the those in the gold world who are not outraged. Shareholders should be furious these gold producer CEO lightweights are allowing The Gold Cartel to rip them off without a fight.

*Another point of interest is the Russians pointing out how the gold derivatives are 5 to 10 times that of any other commodities market. This is one of GATA’s most significant points, one which points to gold price manipulation. I will be covering this at length this afternoon.

*What more need be said from a high level central banker bureaucrat to give GATA enormous official credibility: “given ground to suspicion that the real forces acting on the gold market are far from those of classic textbooks that explain to students how prices are born in a free market.”

To me it is simply amazing and infuriating that it takes the Russians to give GATA the exposure we have earned, while the financial market press in the US (or Canada) won’t give us the time of day, nor allow our name to be even mentioned. Free press in the US, free markets in the US, what a joke!

Chris Powell busted his tail to make this happen. Please take some time and get the following out to as much press as possible.

GATA issues international press release about central banker's suppressed speech

8:40a ET Monday, October 4, 2004

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA today issued an international press release via the Business Wire news service about the June speech of the Bank of Russia's deputy chairman, Oleg V. Mozhaiskov, to the London Bullion Market Association, which the LBMA suppressed. The press release can be found here:

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp? ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20041004005442&newsLang=en

GATA urges its friends to copy the press release to their contacts in the precious metals business and the news media.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

The Russian CB speech has been served at The Matisse Table for those of you who have not read it yet.

Some feedback from on GATA’s veteran supporters in Germany:

Hi Chris,

I am very proud to be a member of GATA; this is the first time, a member of a central bank´s directory is citing GATA and acknowledging the work of GATA.

That is a breakthrough for GATA and a sign, that the ole days of keeping it under the blanket are over.

It is very pity, that the people in the East are more sophisticated towards gold than the "old western industry countries" including the US. We - the old western (former:) industry countries - now with diminishing production capacities - are printing money, are robbing our children for our social security benefits and THEY (the eastern countries) are collecting the precious metals.

May God be with us.
Best regards
Dietmar

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

Monday, October 4

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.39, PM $8.25, with world gold at 417.65 and $415.60. High and extremely high. India is clearly a buyer of world gold in the teens.

The rupee strengthened again and the stock market rose another 1.6%, to the highest level since April 23. Foreign portfolio inflows in September are reported to have been the highest since April - that is, since before the fall of the BJP government. Foreigners buy Indian paper; Indian buy foreign gold. Hmmm.

Of course the Middle East is active too: Turkey's September imports were reported at a robust 22.2 tonnes, despite the Lira price of gold being a record high.

A return to US asset triumphalism (last night it looked more like a celebration by the Undervaluationist Axis in Asia) inevitably pressures gold. But beyond that, comprehension is clearly spreading about the massive nature of the selling which greeted the approach to $420. With estimated volume at 57,000, Friday was not a light day either.

Indian and Middle Eastern physical buyers are unmoved by this consideration. They have their own, quite independent reasons to buy gold. This will offer important, possibly decisive, protection to the highly leveraged western speculators who have been enticed in over the past week.

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

From The King Report:

Current market action is producing causation problems for some economists due to China's voracious commodity appetite. Surging cement, oil, copper and other industrial commodities, as well as near-capacity freight loads, used to mean that the US economy was jiggy. That is no longer the case due to China. It's amusing, if not hypocritical, that many of the same economists and gurus who, during the tech bubble, pronounced the US industrial economy either dead or irrelevant due to the 'new paradigm', now hail the China-induced boost to US manufacturing as the sine qua non for a US economic boom.

Some permabulls are attacking Bill Gross for joining us reprobates that aver that the BLS has no clothes on its CPI. One critic admonished Gross for denigrating such an important economic statistic. But the critic's lame exercise is easily refuted by just reading the BLS's web page on CPI. The multitudes of items that are hedonically adjusted are listed. Perhaps our favorite passage is the one whereby the BLS states that any sharp or abnormal price increase is ignored. And we don't have to get into substitution or sampling, do we?

Still not convinced? We must then direct you to an item we highlighted over a year ago. The WSJ's Jeff Opdyke in a 5/12/03 article asked: "If the Federal Reserve is so concerned about deflation, why are so many of the everyday costs of life on the rise?" But the death blow for permabulls and permadeflationists is this admission: "Even Pat Jackman, economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which calculates the official inflation rate, says the widely reported numbers understate the rising cost of life from one year to the next. The fact is, he said, 'more money is coming out of your pocket.'"

http://www.baltimoresun.com/bu…ll=bal-business-headlines

-END-

Bayer Aspirin, gold market – same drill:

Bayer Pleads Guilty
in Price-Fixing Conspiracy,
Will Pay $33 Million Fine

U.S. Department of Justice Statement
Thursday, September 30, 2004

http://www.usdoj.gov/opa/pr/2004/September/04_at_661.htm

WASHINGTON -- Bayer Corp., the Pittsburgh subsidiary of German firm Bayer AG, has agreed to plead guilty and to pay a $33 million criminal fine for participating in a conspiracy to fix prices of a chemical used in a number of consumer products, including plastic grocery bags, shoe soles, and automotive parts, the Department of Justice announced today.

Today's charge is the first in an ongoing investigation of this product, polyester polyols.

Polyester polyols are also used in automotive coatings, filters, belts, seals and gaskets, adhesives, sound-proofing products, and textiles. The chemical involved in the Bayer case, aliphatic polyester polyols made from adipic acid, is added to other chemicals to improve tensile strength and resistance to abrasion.

According to the one-count felony charge filed in the U.S. District Court in San Francisco, Bayer Corp. conspired from 1998 to 2002 with an unnamed producer and unnamed individuals to suppress and eliminate competition in the United States for aliphatic polyester polyols made from adipic acid. Under the plea agreement, which must be approved by the court, Bayer Corp. has agreed to assist the government in its ongoing investigation.

"Today's charge represents a significant step in our continuing effort to eliminate illegal cartel activity," said R. Hewitt Pate, Assistant Attorney General in charge of the Department's Antitrust Division.

The Department charged that Bayer and unnamed co-conspirators carried out the conspiracy by:

-- Participating in conversations and meetings to discuss, raise, and maintain the prices of aliphatic polyester polyols made from adipic acid to be sold in the U.S. and elsewhere;

-- Participating in conversations and attending meetings concerning implementation and adherence to the agreements reached;

-- Issuing price announcements and price quotes in accordance with the agreements reached;

-- And exchanging information on the sale of aliphatic polyester polyols made from adipic acid in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Bayer Corp. was charged with violating Section 1 of the Sherman Act, which carries a maximum fine of $10 million for corporations and a maximum penalty of three years imprisonment and a fine of $350,000 for individuals for violations occurring before June 22, 2004. The maximum statutory fine may be increased to twice the gain the conspirators derived from the crime or twice the loss suffered by the victims of the crime, if either of those amounts is greater than the statutory maximum fine.

Today's charge is the result of an ongoing investigation being conducted by the Antitrust Division's San Francisco Field Office and the Federal Bureau of Investigation in San Francisco.

No surprises:

By Mark Drajem
Bloomberg News
Sunday, October 3, 2004 http://quote.bloomberg.com/app…d=aqInugWKloSg&refer=home

WASHINGTON -- China offered no new timetable for changing a 9-year-old peg of its currency to the dollar, and warned U.S. policy makers not to press too hard for a change.

"What we are trying to do is create the conditions for a market-based exchange rate," Central Bank Deputy Governor Li Ruogu told bankers at a luncheon in Washington. "If you force China to change it will hurt the United States. You destroy a goose that will give you a golden egg."

Calls for change in the Chinese exchange rate, set at 8.3 to the dollar since 1995, have grown louder since the Group of Seven industrialized nations first recommended more "flexibility" in September 2003. China on Friday pledged to "push ahead firmly and steadily" toward a more flexible exchange rate without providing a timetable for the shift from its currency peg….

-END-

Canada resists IMF plan

By BARRIE McKENNA
From Monday's Globe and Mail

Washington — Canada has thrown up a major new roadblock to a debt-cancellation deal for the world's poorest countries by vigorously resisting a British plan to inflate the value of the International Monetary Fund's vast gold reserves. Finance Minister Ralph Goodale said Ottawa wants guarantees the plan won't undermine gold mining companies in Canada and elsewhere. He and other finance officials from around the world met for three days of talks in Washington, where the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund were holding their annual meetings.

“We need absolute assurances that [revaluing the gold] should not be disruptive to the international gold industry or international markets for gold,” Mr. Goodale told The Globe and Mail.

“It must be handled in a way that does not cause disruption to the gold mining industry in Canada.”

Mr. Goodale made the comments after the IMF's top policy-making group failed on the weekend to finalize a deal to cancel billions of dollars worth of debt owed by the world's poorest countries.

Also at the meetings, officials expressed growing concern that $50 (U.S.)-a-barrel oil could unravel an otherwise improving global economic outlook.

Coming into the twice-yearly gathering, there had been growing elsewhere. He and other finance officials from around the world met for three days of talks in Washington, where the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund were holding their annual meetings.

“We need absolute assurances that [revaluing the gold] should not be disruptive to the international gold industry or international markets for gold,” Mr. Goodale told The Globe and Mail.

“It must be handled in a way that does not cause disruption to the gold mining industry in Canada.”

Mr. Goodale made the comments after the IMF's top policy-making group failed on the weekend to finalize a deal to cancel billions of dollars worth of debt owed by the world's poorest countries….

-END-

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Derek Van Artsdalen was kind enough to send us the following this weekend from San Antonio:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/DVA1004A.jpg]

Resistance around $425. But notice that the 50-day moving average has finally broken through the 200-day moving average again.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/DVA1004B.jpg]

Another view showing the recent breakout from the symmetrical triangle. Measured move to somewhere around $480 or so.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/DVA1004C.jpg]

Same thing but with a 2-year perspective.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/DVA1004D.jpg]

Silver hasn’t closed below (or above) this channel since third week in April. MACD just now breaking upward through the zero point.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/DVA1004E.jpg]

As with gold, the 50-day MA has turned upward, still several cents above the 200-day MA. MACD gaining strength.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/DVA1004F.jpg]

Longer view in weekly terms. Notice what happened last time it broke up through the resistance line. Right now, the critical level seems to be about $7.25 or so. If we break through that convincingly, we might be in for another setup for fireworks as in January through March. Internals looking great, too. The 50-week MA is really starting to pull away from the 200-week MA, which is back above $5.00.

Russian central banker cites GATA, says gold market may be less than free

10:13p ET Sunday, October 3, 2004

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Movements in the price of gold are sometimes "so enigmatic" and central banks and bullion banks are so involved with it that the gold market may be less than free, the deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia says.

The deputy chairman, Oleg V. Mozhaiskov, made the remarks in a speech at a meeting of the London Bullion Market Association in Moscow in June, but the LBMA and other participants in the meeting suppressed it, refusing repeated requests to release a copy. After months of negotiation, the Bank of Russia last week supplied the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee with an English translation, which is appended.

In his speech to the LBMA Mozhaiskov cited GATA's work at length, and while not formally endorsing it, he showed that the Bank of Russia has been following it closely and knows that much more has been going on in the gold market than is widely acknowledged. Likening the central bank to a giraffe, Mozhaiskov quoted a poem well-known in Russia: "The giraffe is tall, and he sees all."

The central banker acknowledged that the great increase in the use of derivatives and central bank leasing of gold have depressed its price in recent years.

Mozhaiskov also denounced "the blatant lack of discipline" of United States fiscal policy and "the social and economic injustice of a world order that allows the richest country in the world to live in debt, undermining the vital interests of other countries and peoples."

Despite its use as jewelry, gold is mainly a financial asset, not merely a precious metal, Mozhaiskov said, and international financial circumstances are making gold particularly and hard assets generally ever more desirable for investment.

[B]GATA is grateful to Mozhaiskov and the Bank of Russia for their willingness to address gold market issues openly, and we will encourage study and discussion of this speech.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

The London Bullion Market Association
Bullion Market Forum
Baltschug Kempinsky Hotel, Moscow
June 3-4, 2004

Perspectives on Gold: Central Bank Viewpoint

By Oleg V. Mozhaiskov, Deputy Chairman
Bank of Russia

I would like to thank the conference organisers for this opportunity to share my thoughts on such a complex, even mythical subject as gold and the prospects for the near and medium-term. I assume that the request was made for one simple reason: that I, as a senior executive of the Bank of Russia, should know more than other ordinary mortals.

In general, this logic is flawed, although there is sense to it: It is necessary to understand the Central Bank perspective regarding this precious metal, particularly given that it does have approximately 500 tonnes of the metal in its vaults.

It is from this perspective, that of central bank, that I intend to base my presentation. I hope you can understand that it is quite a specific topic, management of gold reserves. This is distinct from the views adopted by gold prospectors, industrialists, investors, speculators, and ordinary purchasers of jewellery.

For the central bank, the gold stock is the international payment reserve for the whole country -- for the state authorities, private companies and corporations, as well as individual citizens. Like any reserve, it needs to be conserved, in terms of both actual physical form and its value. To a lesser extent, we need to be concerned about its liquidity, or more precisely, market price developments.

The central bank's duties in managing gold reserves may therefore not seem particularly onerous to a commercial trader, who has to close dozens of transactions daily to achieve results by the end of the day.

In this there is a grain of truth. The central bank's specialists do not have to follow real-time price movements every day and every minute, or react instantaneously to every little twist and turn in the market. We are concerned with other, less immediate problems regarding gold. In a figurative sense the central bank's attitude can be compared with that to a giraffe. I have in mind an image of an animal that suggests certain ambiguity, at least in the Russian language.

On the one hand, when Russians say that someone is reacting like a giraffe, they are highlighting that person's slow reaction. It even suggests a degree of slow-wittedness. On the other hand, the evident magnificence of the animal commands respect. "The giraffe is tall, and he sees all" -- the words of the Russian bard Vladimir Vysotskii are well known throughout Russia.

With this allegory in mind, I would like to mention the issues concerning gold which fall within the "giraffe category", or more formally, present concerns of a central bank.

These are several: the volume of actual precious metal stock, both in absolute and relative terms (essentially, the optimum component of the metal in total monetary reserves); methods of controlling the stock; ensuring both security and availability for liquidity purposes and at the same time optimising income-earning potential. All these issues reflect very practical concerns.

It may seem strange but all bear direct relation to a problem that is often considered purely theoretical: What is gold currently, and what will it be tomorrow? Real money with intrinsic value? A raw material? A cash commodity that has lost some of its monetary functions? If so, what are the prospects -- complete loss of gold's role or a restoration of lost functions, in one form or another?

There is a wide circle of leading financiers who believe that pondering on these themes is a fruitless academic exercise. They are convinced that the heads of the world's richest countries, who once agreed to abolish exchange of national currencies for gold at a fixed rate, have in fact demonetised gold altogether. In their eyes, the existence of official gold reserves is simply a remnant of the past, a financial monument to the gold and gold-currency standards, which will ultimately be absorbed by the global gold market. This market has properly organised infrastructure, products, rules, and procedures, and central banks are merely one of its clientele. For them, this is the only reality to be reckoned with.

Is this a true picture for gold in the modern world?

Many people do not think like this; the reality is more complicated. The contemporary gold market has emerged as a byproduct of a series of agreements between governments, initiated by the United States and supported by the other major powers, in whose possession the bulk of all gold ever extracted lies.

These agreements (the most important of which were the Jamaica Agreements of 1976) created ideal conditions for stimulating international trade by means of expanding credit facilities in national currencies. The obligations on debtor countries to pay off the trade deficits with gold (upon demand of the creditor countries) severely limited the exporter countries' opportunities for trade expansion. The importer countries were made to live within their means, predicated by their gold reserves. Gold was therefore considered by a number of economists and policy makers as an instrument guaranteeing order and justice in international economic relations, while others remained convinced that it hindered international economic progress and development.

The latter, as you know, secured the upper hand.

That brief look back into the past was necessary to make the following conclusion: The present state of the gold market and its future cannot be analysed in isolation from the problems of the international monetary system.

Some people may question this conclusion because of the incompatibility of the present volumes in the respective gold and foreign currency markets. I would suggest that the volumes do not matter for this particular purpose. The modern monetary system, although undoubtedly robust and long-standing, in fact has a number of flaws and weaknesses. These, like the birth of the new, can cause health problems to the participants of the system.

This disconcerting phenomenon occurs because, by taking gold out of international payments turnover, people are undermining payment discipline. The discipline I have in mind is at a macro-level; that is, the discipline of rich industrial countries whose convertible currencies have taken the role of an international trade medium by virtue of their economic strength and have been accepted by the world community as reserve units of payment.

Although there are several reserve currencies, the blatant lack of discipline is demonstrated by the U.S. dollar. I am leaving aside the main aspects of this problem, such as the social and economic injustice of a world order that allows the richest country in the world to live in debt, undermining the vital interests of other countries and peoples. What is important for us today is another aspect, which is connected with the responsibility of the state issuing the reserve currency and for the international community preserving that currency's buying power.

Given the actual behaviour of the dollar on the forex markets, the problem could be more accurately termed the irresponsibility of the U.S. government in relation to the market valuation of its currency in international circulation.

Zitat

Today the net debt owed by the United States to the outside world (the so-called "international investment position") is in the region of US$3 trillion. To understand the scale of this figure, let me remind you that it exceeds the total official currency reserves in all the world's countries (including the United States itself). According to the International Monetary Fund statistics at last year-end, the world pool of foreign currency reserves totalled Special Drawing Rights 2,013 billion or about US$2,800 billion. The volume of cash only ("greenback" banknotes) available outside the United States totals about US$400 billion.

The world has come to a paradoxical situation in which the creditor countries are more concerned with the fate of the dollar than the U.S. authorities themselves are.

Thus, the evolution of the U.S. dollar's reserve role in recent years has given ground to some quite pessimistic forecasts, based on rational economic theory. No wonder that the number of people who have held assets in dollars and now wish to diversify them partly into gold -- the traditional shelter from inflation and political adversity -- is steadily growing.

The statistical correlation between the market prices of dollar and gold is obvious. For the problem we discuss today it means specifically that gold, in addition to its unique physical and chemical properties used in industry, has retained its particular monetary attractiveness for cautious financial investors, and its market price is still heavily influenced by the state of the international monetary system.

Zitat

This dualism in gold price formation distinguishes it from other commodities and makes the movements in the price sometimes so enigmatic that market analysts need to invent fantastic intrigues to explain price dynamics. Many have heard of the group of economists who came together in the society known as the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee and started a number of lawsuits against the U.S. government, accusing it of organising an anti-gold conspiracy. They believe that with the assistance of a number of major financial institutions (they mention in particular the Bank for International Settlements, J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and others), some senior officials have been manipulating the market since 1994. As a result, the price dropped below US$300 an ounce at a time when it should, if it had kept pace with inflation, reached US$740-760.

I prefer not to comment on this information but dare assume that the specific facts included in the lawsuits might have given ground to suspicion that the real forces acting on the gold market are far from those of classic textbooks that explain to students how prices are born in a free market.

So even those who stick to traditional economic theory in analysing and projecting gold market developments should admit that various factors that influence gold price interact between themselves in a constantly changing manner, sometimes in a very odd way. Here, as in nuclear physics, some factors briefly disappear or cease to act, and in their place comes a new dominant market factor. This causes confusion for the forecasters in their efforts to build a logically balanced model for the metal price movements.

So I do not even dare shed light on the methodology of gold price forecasting, but would like to risk outlining basic factors, which are permanently (and I stress "permanently") acting on the market. There are four of them -- two relating to the raw material properties of gold and two to its monetary qualities.

As an economist educated in the Marxist school, I believe that the base for gold prices is rooted in the sphere of the real economy. Like any mineral raw material, mined gold has its intrinsic value. This value fluctuates quite significantly depending on the location, time, and technology of extraction. The market averages out the individual expenses, optimising them at a level that is acceptable to the industry that uses the metal in its production. The absolute values in monetary terms for this factor fluctuate, although they are the least mobile element of the price.

The production cost category has its own "floor and ceiling." The technological particularities of gold extraction determine the minimum price level at which production is economically feasible in the industry as a whole. We think that the worldwide level is currently about US$200 per ounce. This is the minimum price limit. With lower prices the industry will plunge into a zone of catastrophe. So the average costs of gold production in volumes sufficient to satisfy expected market demand (over the past 15 years this has averaged 2,500 tonnes with the upward trend) are the first factor.

The second factor is the real volumes of demand generated by the consuming industries for physical gold. The behaviour of industrialists (jewellery is playing the most important role) is mainly caused by factors connected with an economic activity cycle. During the 1990s there was a significant but uneven rise of demand for jewellery: from 2,200 tonnes in 1990 to 3,200 tonnes by the end of the decade, with a peak of 3,350 tonnes in 1997. The first three years of the new millennium saw a decline of demand from jewellers; the volume of metal purchased by the industry dropped down to 2,550 tonnes in 2003. The fundamental correlation between gold prices and the volume of demand from industry is normally linear in character. This correlation cannot be the sole cause behind the dramatic falls in prices, but can show a vector for price movement, which can be enhanced or indeed maximised through the efforts of speculators.

However, even when speculative activity is relatively quiet this vector is not always clear. There are "anti-phases" in economic activity in various parts of the world, and on top of these, various national traditions in demand for the metal.

A recent example of this occurred at the turn of the century. After prices reached a 20-year low of US$252 in May 1999, demand for physical metal increased and pushed the price temporarily to a new "equilibrium level" of US$300 by the end of the year. The concept of "equilibrium" reflects the situation on the market when its participants believe that they are aware of a balance between supply and demand. It brings a measure of price stability to the market.

Fortsetzung der von der London Base Metall Gesellschaft, und von der Welt-Presse völlig unterdrückten LBMA Rede von Oleg V. Mozhaiskov, Deputy Chairman der Bank of Russia

Such a situation appeared to take place following the central banks' Washington Agreement on Gold.

However, as soon as demand started to shrink again and a danger of excess supply arose, prices went down. This was the beginning of a two-year market stagnation, with the price waving within a range of US$270-290. It was not sufficient for the metal producers, but they were unable to control the situation. It was investors who made the weather on the market.

Now the time has come to admit that investment demand was, and still is, the main driving force behind price fluctuations on the gold market. The changing character of demand heavily depends on what is going on in the international foreign currency and financial markets.

The investors pay continuous attention firstly to the dollar rate of exchange and secondly to the level of interest rates for financial assets. The volatility of these indicators directly influences investor interest in gold. Since this interest is realised not through operations with physical metal but through deals with gold derivatives on stock-exchange and non-stock-exchange markets (where gold is mentioned only as a base asset), the volume of these deals can exceed the volume of trade in physical metal dozens of times. Last year turnover with gold derivatives was about 4,000 million ounces (or 129,000 tonnes), but physical metal actually sold totalled 120 million ounces or some 3,860 tonnes. As it is said: Feel the difference!

It is true that the markets for derivatives linked to other raw materials also usually exceed the operations with base assets. The difference in volumes are incomparably less (five to 10 times). At the same time the markets for derivatives with foreign currencies and prime securities as base assets are developing every bit as rapidly as the gold derivatives.

What can we infer from that?

One conclusion, at least, is clear: Gold is predominantly a financial asset, not merely a precious metal.

In this capacity gold is competing with other financial assets on a variety of parameters. Being inferior in terms of returns, it is far more reliable than anything else for protection against war-related, political, financial, economic, and credit risks, and also provides a high level of liquidity and lower management costs. However, since the rate of return is the main measure of success for financial institutions under normal conditions, investment-related decisions depend directly on the stability of the international monetary system, strength (or weakness) of the dollar, and the level of interest rates on financial markets.

This dependence is not linear in nature. Correlation factors change from time to time because decisions are taken by investors individually on the basis of their market expectations. As a result, investors' reaction may race ahead or lag behind developments on the forex and financial markets. If we examine gold price movements over the last 10-12 years, it becomes clear that during the first half of the 1990s the dominant factor was the weak dollar and the market was still living in hope of a recurrence of the 1980s "gold fever."

From 1997 onward, as the dollar strengthened, these hopes were dispelled, investors turned around, and price fell to the level of support on the physical market. It seems to us that the depth and duration of this depressed phase of gold prices were to a considerable extent caused by the wide use of gold derivatives by investors. Insofar as these instruments are intended for protecting banks and their customers against unwanted and unexpected changes in price dynamics, they can provoke massive closing of the existing position at a specific moment. This process may take the form of a chain reaction. As a result, the price falls below the level dictated by the sensible interests of investors.

I would also like to note that recently the central banks have been playing a significant role in the gold market. Low interest rates in the money markets and revaluation of gold reserves in line with lower market prices have exacerbated the problem of the financial efficiency of gold stock management. To earn some income on the stock and compensate for "book losses" caused by its revaluation, a number of central banks have started to place a part of their reserves into deposits with commercial institutions -- leasing operations.

Data available to me suggest that these banks deposited about 1,000 tonnes in 1991, and 10 years later the volume of the deposits reached 4,800 tonnes. Naturally, the central banks' activity increased market liquidity and thus also put downward pressure on the gold price. The influence of these operations, however, must not be exaggerated. It is even incomparable with the pressure that was exerted on the market of gold derivatives.

The same conclusion can be made about the central banks' sale of some of their gold reserves. All market participants have been paying particular attention to these operations since September 1999, when 15 European central banks agreed in Washington on the orderly sale of 2,000 tonnes of gold from their official reserves over the next five years.

One month ago the agreement was extended for a further five years (to September 2009), setting the total sale limit at 2,500 tonnes or 500 tonnes per year. One may wonder if these agreements and sales indirectly indicate that these countries have embarked on a long-term gold demonetisation programme and if their statement that "gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves" is nothing but a sort of soothing therapy for the market. Such opinions exist, although they do not prevail.

I think that the agreements do not give ground for this view.

First, the participating countries own between them 12,300 tonnes of gold. The share of the metal in their official monetary reserves has reached 36 percent. This is significantly higher than the average for all the world's countries (10-12 percent). So the sales can be seen as optimisation of the reserves structure.

Secondly, the countries making the sales (France, Germany, and some others) are currently enduring budget deficits exceeding the limits laid down by the Maastricht Treaty. Hence, this may explain the temptation to solve their budgetary problems without reducing expenditure or raising taxes.

The current decisions by the monetary authorities in European countries could therefore be considered sensible, like the actions of certain Asiatic states that in recent years increased the gold portion within their monetary reserves. The internal imperfections of the international monetary system (which I spoke about earlier) have already led to a number of regional financial crises and still carry the danger of larger upheavals.

Under these conditions, the growing interest of investors in real assets, gold in particular, is more than justified.

And on that optimistic note, I would like to end my presentation.

***************

Es ist skandalös, ja fast schon unheimlich, dass die Aufklärungs-Arbeit der GATA in Sachen Gold, in einer Rede von der Bank of Russland erwähnt und publik gemacht werden muss, während die LBMA (Verantwortlich für das London Gold Preis Fixing) selbst, und die übrige Wirtschafts-Presse, weltweit die Existenz der GATA völlig zu ignorieren versucht, und verhindert, dass diese Rede der Bank von Russland, respektive dessen Beauftragten Vize-Direktor Oleg V. Mozhaiskov, an die Oeffentlichkeit gelangt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.welt.de/tplpix/welt/chl_kpf_1.jpg]

http://www.welt.de/data/2004/10/05/341885.html

Renaissance des Goldes

Preis wegen teuren Öls und schwachen Dollars kurz vor 15-Jahres-Hoch

New York - Gold ist wieder "in": Sein Preis wird diese Woche voraussichtlich das 15-Jahres-Hoch von 433 Dollar die Unze toppen. Davon gehen 27 der 44 von Bloomberg News befragten Händler und Investoren aus. Sie setzen darauf, daß der Dollar-Kurs fällt und die Nachfrage nach dem Edelmetall anzieht. Zehn der Befragten rechnen mit einem Rückgang und sieben damit, daß der Goldpreis relativ unverändert bleibt. Vergangene Woche verteuerte sich Gold um 2,8 Prozent auf 421,20 Dollar je Unze und erreichte am Freitag bei 421,90 Dollar den höchsten Preis seit fünf Monaten. In den vergangenen zwölf Monaten hat sich Gold um 9,4 Prozent verteuert.

"Angesichts der Dollar-Schwäche sind die Chancen gut, daß der Goldpreis die Widerstände durchbricht und ein neues Rekordniveau erreicht", sagt George Ireland, Vermögensverwalter bei Ring Partners in Boston. Seit der Goldpreis Anfang Mai dieses Jahres bei 371,30 Dollar auf dem niedrigsten Stand seit sechs Monaten war, ging es 13 Prozent aufwärts. Händler spekulierten darauf, daß der Rekord-Ölpreis das Wirtschaftswachstum in den USA belasten wird und dadurch auch die Nachfrage nach US-Dollar sinkt. In 58 Prozent der Zeit bewegt sich der Goldpreis entgegengesetzt zum Dollar-Kurs, erklärt Gregory Wilkins, Vorstandschef von Barrick Gold in Toronto.

Gold hat von Spekulationen profitiert, daß durch den schwachen Dollar die Inflation angeheizt wird. Dadurch sinkt der Wert von Vermögenswerten wie Anleihen. "Es wird noch viel mehr schleichende Abwertung geben, was sich nach meiner Ansicht günstig auf die Goldbranche auswirken wird", sagte Wilkins auf der Goldkonferenz in Denver. Auch Hedgefonds-Manager und andere spekulative Investoren setzen darauf, daß der Goldpreis steigen wird. Sie erhöhten in der Woche zum 28. September ihre Nettokaufposition für Gold-Terminkontrakte um 28 Prozent gegenüber der Vorwoche, gab die Aufsichtsbehörde für den Terminhandel Commodity Futures Trading Commission am 1. Oktober bekannt.

Die Experten der US-Investmentbank Goldman Sachs sehen den Goldpreis in den kommenden sechs bis zwölf Monaten innerhalb einer Spanne von 390 bis 450 Dollar. Denn sie rechnen damit, daß der Dollar fällt und die Minengesellschaften ihre Preisabsicherungskontrakte reduzieren. Einen Preis von 450 Dollar pro Unze erzielte das Edelmetall zuletzt im Juli 1988. "Wir werden noch vor Jahresende, sicherlich aber im nächsten Jahr neue Höchststände beim Goldpreis sehen", erwartet auch John Hathaway, Vermögensverwalter beim Tocqueville-Fonds in New York. "Goldbarren sind im Vergleich zu den riskanteren Gold-Aktien eine vorsichtigere Art von dem für Gold günstigen makroökonomischen Umfeld zu profitieren." Der Tocqueville Gold Fund mit einem Volumen von etwa 500 Mio. Dollar will die Zustimmung der Anteilseigner einholen, den Anteil von Goldbarren auf 20 Prozent des verwalteten Kapitals zu verdoppeln.

"Der Goldpreis dürfte sich in einer Spanne zwischen 414 und 425 Dollar bewegen", sagt Prithviraj Kothari, Direktor von Riddhi Siddhi Bullion im indischen Mumbai. Es bestehe Interesse von Hedgefonds. Sollte der Ölpreis weiter steigen, dürfte auch der Goldpreis bis auf 420 Dollar bis 425 Dollar anziehen. Vergangene Woche erreichte der Preis für Rohöl bei 50,47 Dollar je Barrel eine neue Rekordmarke. Die Kombination aus steigendem Ölpreis und fallendem Dollar ist positiv für Gold, sagt auch Frank McGhee, leitender Goldhändler beim Brokerhaus Alliance Financial in Chicago. "Sollte der Ölpreis weiter steigen, rechne ich damit, daß die Araber Euro und Gold kaufen werden, um sich gegen den Wertverlust ihrer Öldollar abzusichern", führt McGhee aus. Die Zentralbanken des Mittleren Ostens, wo etwa ein Viertel des weltweiten Rohöls gefördert wird, und auch die Zentralbank Argentiniens haben in letzter Zeit Gold gekauft, bestätigt Hathaway vom Tocqueville-Fonds. Bloomberg

Artikel erschienen am Di, 5. Oktober 2004