Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    Original von ageka


    Germoney
    Koennen Sie bitte hier oder in eine neue thread die Englische Cafe briefen weiterposten ?
    Vielen Dank
    AugustGK



    Ich habe ein privat mail gekriegt das sagt das ich le Cafe lesen kan
    auf silberinfo seiten
    Das war nicht die fragen , die frage ist obt ich es hier nog lesen kan

    October 25 - Gold $428.20 up $4.20 - Silver $7.32 up 3 cents


    Cartel Caps Gold At $430 / America The Titanic


    Yesterday I dared to struggle. Today I dare to win...Bernadette Devlin


    GO GATA!!!


    The early trading in Asia last evening was the strongest since the aftermath of the Washington Agreement announcement on September 26th 1999. With the euro up .60 and oil down 8 cents, gold popped $5. With the investment world so blasé about gold, as brought to your attention in the last MIDAS, this was an exciting development. Here we are approaching 16-year highs and so many potential gold investors are out of the market. The only question is to what extent The Gold Cartel will call on their resources to stop gold from taking out $430 in New York trading, as it had briefly pierced that key level in overseas trading?


    If it were not for the blatant price-capping last week, gold would have come in $440 bid today which is one of the reasons for that capping in the first place. The heinous cabal needed some breathing room for a time such as this when the world wanted "in" as far as gold was concerned.


    Thus, while excited last night to see such gold strength, I sensed it would be all down hill from there on in; that the fun was over for the next 24 hours. This day was likely to be similar to all the others when the cabal forces were in deep trouble, or when gold has approached pivotal $430. The Gold Cartel would swing into action in New York with all they had to keep the price below $430+ doomsday gold and to cap it until they could eventually get a tailwind from a price correction in the very oversold dollar.


    All the above was written BEFORE the New York opening. Now, let us see what occurs.


    ***


    Gold opened very firm in New York, beating the opening call, a rarity, and immediately went $430.40 bid, up $6.40 on the session, or limit-up ($6 Rule). At least this tells us The Gold Cartel is going to at least have some kind of battle on their hands in their effort to keep the gold price artificially suppressed.


    8:11 CDT: might as well begin the commentary. The handwriting appears to be on the wall:


    *Thus far gold has made its highs in the first 15 minutes (to an hour in almost all instances), which is standard operating procedure when the crooks go to work.


    *The $6 Rule has been enforced, as is almost always the case, encouraging other sellers to side with the cabal for the trading session.


    *The market is trading with little volatility and fanfare, another Gold Cartel trademark. Why? Because they are capping the price and deterring would-be buyers. After the capping, they wait for others to join in the selling. They will only attack more today if the dollar goes there way.


    *All of this with gold at a 16-year high and a 16-year PM Fixing high of $429.15 (JB caught that one). The cabal has managed to keep gold excitement to less than a dull roar, more like a parade of monks.


    I defy anyone in the gold establishment world to point to any market in history that has traded like gold, with the same predictable, repetitive Groundhog Day patterns mentioned above and for the past YEARS.


    What blows me away (it’s SO bullish) is how little interest there is in gold from a public participation level. The small spec open interest, the lack of the usual futures participants at some prominent brokerages, pitiful US gold coin demand, lack of volume in the smaller golds, and the Café Sentiment Indicator, are all a contrarian’s delight. Never has a market had such constructive bullish fundamentals and attracted such an anemic following. Never has there been a three year BULL MARKET like gold which has attracted such ennui.


    To give you some idea how powerful this neglect is adding up to, I did a Café Search using "Sentiment Indicator" over the last 6 months. These were five I found at random on my first shot. It is remarkable to me that this valuable indicator has been so low for so very long. This past Friday I still reported it to be only a 4.


    Café Sentiment Indicator (1 is the lowest or most bullish and 10 is the highest or most bearish) five month history:


    June 17 - Gold $388.70 up $4.30 – Silver $5.90 up 18 cents
    The Café Sentiment Indicator has been about a 3 for some time. Just when investors should be paying the most attention to gold and silver investments, they have been showing scant interest. Some things never change.


    July 9 - Gold $407.40 down 50 cents – Silver $6.45 up 4 cents
    The Café Sentiment Indicator has barely budged off its lows. Compared to the price action of this week, the lack of interest in gold is remarkable – stunning really. What a contrarian’s delight. SO bullish!


    August 16 - Gold $402.50 up $3.90 – Silver $6.69 up 9 cents
    Seems to me gold and silver, as mentioned last week, are ready to really pop. Everything is in place and FEW in the investment world and in the general public are paying any attention, as indicated by the continued abysmal Café Sentiment Indicator.


    September 20 - Gold $405 down 60 cents – Silver $6.23 unchanged
    Had some interest to update the Café Sentiment Indicator. Café paying memberships has picked up. However, hits on the site are way down and new trials are as low as they have even been. Would have to put the indicator at a 3, where it has been plus or minus for some time. The fact that the indicator has been so feeble for so long and interest in the gold sector (junior and exploration shares especially) remains so abysmal, suggests a move of significant magnitude is coming. Quiet before the storm sort of thing. The gold fundamentals suggest this coming move will be one which takes the gold price sharply higher. Silver too.


    September 29 - Gold $418.40 up $5.80 - Silver $6.90 up 25 cents
    The Café Sentiment Indicator works again. It has finally started to move up to a 4 or 5, yet has a LONG way to go. What is significant in my book is that it was so lousy for so many months, which I constantly brought to your attention. Like a market which has built a broad base, this tells me the gold and silver moves up will be that much grander this time as the persistent lack of investor interest suggests there is that much more to finally show up during the months to come. Just when investors should have been paying the most attention by doing their gold and silver homework, they ran away in droves. Isn’t that always the way? Once gold takes out $430 for good, gold will be the talk of the town and The Café Sentiment Indicator will soar to 9 and 10.


    ***


    The main reason for bringing this to your attention is think of this sustained gold neglect as a foreteller of the explosive market action ahead of us. Gold has worked its way up to 16-year highs and the public could care less. Think of how many future buyers are out there all over the place. GATA love that.


    The following charts are very telling. The dollar has closed lower 9 trading sessions in a row and the price of oil has surged recently from a scarily HIGH $42 per barrel to almost $56 dollars per barrel. The dollar came within a whisker of 85 today. That combination ought to have gold close to $500 per ounce (minimum). Instead, it is not ALLOWED to even move above $430.


    December euro (127.97, up 1.49)
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/EC/C4


    December dollar (85.08, down .89)
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/C4


    Weekly dollar
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/W


    December gold
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C4


    Weekly gold
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W


    December oil ($54.54)
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/C4


    If you had presented the oil, dollar and euro charts to anyone a couple of years ago, before their being prejudiced by the recent price action, most everyone would have had gold flying over $500 per ounce.


    Well, when all was said and done, gold closed lower than where it opened and traded last evening, which is par for the course, even though the dollar weakened and euro strengthened during the Comex session. Never have crooks in the US (including the Mafia) been able to rip off the public and do so in such visible fashion. Where are the regulators? Where is the gold industry?


    The gold open interest rose 3267 contracts to 310,353.


    IN VERY LATE: Heard from our STALKER source. The skinny:


    *The total gold buying by the main STALKER and three little STALKERS will be $4.5 billion. Half of that has been bought already.
    *The main STALKER is about done, leaving the smaller STALKERS to do the buying.
    *The smaller STALKERS may trade some of their purchases, i.e. sell rallies.
    *The group is looking for $500 gold within 6 to 8 months.
    *The thinking is some of the Asian buying last night was partly this group (thought to be Chinese and operating principally out of Australia).
    *They are interested in silver, however, the Canadians are trying to sell them certificates. They want physical only and need a place to store it. If they can sort this out and can find silver in SIZE, they will be in the market.
    *They feel that dollar still has 25% to go on the downside and there could be an official devaluation.


    The London gold dealer connection to our STALKER source checked in too. Still bullish and looking for gold to take out $434 this week and then to move past $450.


    Silver, which much prefers to run higher on its own (without the help of outside markets), surged early, as much as 17 cents, and then fell back. Perhaps the cabal couldn’t lean more on gold because of the pronounced dollar weakness so they took it out on silver. Remember The Gold Cartel’s mantra: keep precious metals excitement to a minimum as much as possible.


    The silver open interest rose 1011 contracts to 115,321.


    Even rigged markets won’t act the same way after a period of time. When it is this obvious, too many people find out the true score and then go after the manipulators if they find them to be vulnerable. With the gold fundamentals a "10+++++," we know the bums could go down at any time. So does the biggest money in the world (Russians, Chinese, Arabs, large hedge funds). They know GATA is correct and are acting accordingly. With the dollar very oversold, it could easily correct a bit from here and you can be sure The Gold Cartel will make their move to take gold down. Whatever, I cannot see corrections lasting too long. The cash market is TOO FIRM. The Gold Cartel is having trouble because of this most important element of the market. In the past the cash market was not there to support cabal attacks at this high a price level, as it failed to follow the specs. This time it has followed the specs all the way up, unlike the "public" which shows little interest.

    The John Brimelow Report


    Gold on the Western Front. Comfort from Bridgewater


    Monday, October 25, 2004


    India returned in a buying mood after Friday’s national holiday. Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.64, PM $7.22, with world gold at $428.40 and $428.80. Quite adequate for legal imports. This is basis Bombay: the second importing city, Ahmedabad, shows similar results. The rupee edged to an import-friendly 4 month high today.


    Reuters carries the usual story quoting Indian importers moaning that prices are damaging their business; other news stories are more upbeat about gold seasonal buying, and indeed the Indian economy generally. See


    http://www.newkerala.com/news-…?action=fullnews&id=38749


    This is the highest $US price at which I have records of Indian prices being conducive to imports.


    Japan opened to find $US gold up $4 from the NY close, record Oil prices, and the dollar reeling against the Euro and the Yen. TOCOM was a moderately firm buyer, apparently offsetting the firm yen against the Oil price action, perhaps; there was also some reference to the bout of bullion buying seen in Japan in 1995 following the Kobe earthquake. On aggregate volume equal to 22,681 Comex lots (+29%) open interest rose the equivalent of 1,986 Comex contracts to equal 100,507 Comex. Mitsubishi implies that the "public" (e.g. specs) added some 7.3 tonnes to their long (235,000 ozs). The active contract closed up 8 yen; world gold went out $4.50 above the NY close. (NY traded 34,876 contracts on Friday; open interest rebounded 3,277 lots to 310,363 – substantially erasing Thursday’s fall.)


    In contrast to the position on COMEX, the spec long in Tokyo, at some 61.4 tonnes, is only about half the conventional peak reached three times earlier since 2000, so there is still some plausible potential support from this quarter.


    Japan’s mild interest contrasts sharply with China. On heavy volume, the Shanghai Gold Exchange is showing steep –c. $4 – discounts to world gold. Whatever influence China is currently having on world prices does not include bolstering gold.


    Friday’s 10.2 tonne increase in Comex open increase indicated the apparently gentle down/up fluctuation masked some serious activity. UBS notes:


    "In New York on Friday gold opened under pressure form speculative selling - both via futures and through options. After the metal made a low…gold moved higher…despite some decent selling from investment banks. Gold closed around $424.00 / 424.50 just shy of the highs. In Asia, the weak US dollar triggered buying via Access ahead of the Asian open and the buying continued into Asia trading although reports of scale-up selling capped the move higher."


    It appears that a reconnaissance in force by the bears was routed by buyers, who then attacked fiercely Sunday evening NY time. ACCESS volume was well over 3,000 by 11 PM, and over 9,546 contracts traded in the whole session, said to be a record - double what is usually seen on a busy day. Japan was really just a co operative passenger. The invaluable website thebulliondesk.com reported record traffic over the weekend, (a time they do not normally update) – English-speaking interest, inevitably. Comex looks certain to report record open interest tomorrow; perhaps by quite a large margin.


    All this heroic buying achieved was to uncover a fresh line of resistance at $428-430. Another line of trenches – is this the Western Front?


    However with macro events – oil, dollar, etc still pushed forward on one flank, and Indian/Middle Eastern buying matching pace on the other, the speculative outfits clearly in action at present may well feel they can still dislodge and overwhelm this obstacle as well, during this offensive. Heavy put buying, allegedly by a politically well-connected Investment Bank, and general nervousness about the size of the spec long are certainly caveats. But given the character of the gold market in recent months, a decisive follow-through to the achievement of a 16 year high on the AM fix this morning is probably going to require plenty of records.


    While waiting, it is soothing to contemplate Bridgewater Associates’ argument today that ballooning foreign FX reserves are liable to be associated with surging commodity (& gold prices) and instability:


    "…we think that this situation is most reminiscent of that which occurred in 1968-73, when Japan was in essentially the same position as China now… Back then, like now, it didn’t take much penciling to figure out that if the dollar wasn’t revalued, it wouldn’t be very long before Japanese ownership of U.S. paper would be larger than the entire Japanese economy. Right now, Chinese ownership of U.S. paper is nearly a third of the Chinese economy, up from about 15% two years ago…we estimate that the total value …of Chinese holdings of U.S. dollars will exceed the total value of China’s GDP in five years."


    "a lot of dollars are being produced now, as they were being produced back in 1968-73 (though, as a percentage of GDP, they are being produced much more rapidly now than back then). The increases in the dollar supply and the dollar’s devaluation (which exacerbated the money supply growth, as money growth was no longer constrained), together with commodity supply/demand tightness, sent commodity prices higher. When shortages of inelastic commodities occur, prices classically rise in an upward arching pattern…until some structural change occurs. In the case of past oil shocks, it was monetary tightening, much more than the high oil prices, that slowed the economy and curtailed demand…. Largely for these reasons, we expect next year to become more interesting."


    (The second attachment is derived from this Bridgewater. It shows the comparative magnitudes of the previous oil price shocks, and the gold price response. This time, of course, there has been a huge lag. Ultimately, the physical market will correct this.)


    JB

    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The DOW fell 8 to 9750 and the DOG sank 1 to 1914.


    Some economic news:


    10:00 Sept. Existing Home Sales reported 6.75M vs. consensus 6.51M
    Aug. Existing Home Sales unrevised at 6.54M.
    * * * * *


    11:20 Bloomberg reports Norway govt ends oil rig conflict
    A Reuters headline indicates that striking workers will wait for formal order before resuming work.
    * * * * *
    Meanwhile, the terrorists were blowing up more pipelines in Iraq.


    The Nikkei led off the trashing of world stock markets by dropping 200 to 10,659 last evening. The European bourses followed suit and were clobbered in their early going by 1 to 2%. When I woke up the S&P was due 7.50 lower. It was uphill for the US stock market from there on in as the PPT was out there huffing and puffing.


    After Friday’s intense beating, The Working Group on Financial Markets was prepared to go all out to stem the negative tide, as they have done for so long now. NEVER is the public allowed to sense any sort of market panic.


    The big news overseas was the dollar thumping. Yet, few seem to really care here. While other foreign markets ended badly, the price managers in the US managed to stave off a rout and our market came back to the steady level. This is very scary. I remember in 1987 the dollar was crushed and our market did nothing for an extended period of time (months). A few warnings went out, yet most said it didn’t matter that much as the market continued to remain elevated. THEN: CRASH!


    It’s also scary that the bullish consensus and complacency is so high. Thank the PPT for this coming disaster for the average Joe and Jane investor. When this market dumps, they won’t know what hit them. What a sad state of affairs. Orwellianism so rampant in New York and Washington, will wreak havoc on America in the weeks or months to come. Think Titanic.


    Information was sent my way as early as Saturday that dollar dumping was the order of the weekend and that Monday would turn out like it did. It wasn’t just one of my sources; there were rumors were flying all over the internet – rumors which turned out to be mostly fact.


    One which was not a rumor:


    http://newsfromrussia.com/main/2004/10/22/56751.html


    Central Bank stops supporting dollar


    13:20 2004-10-22
    The weighted average dollar exchange rate was 29 RUR/USD in the first 90 minutes of trade at a special session today. Thus, the official dollar rate for October 23-25 will decrease by RUR0.12. This is the most considerable one-day drop of the dollar against the ruble since late April. The low on the deals was even 28.95 RUR/USD at the UTS.


    According to commercial bank dealers, the Central Bank has not supported the dollar despite a large selling of dollars by market participants.


    Banks sold over $436m at a special session at 11:30 a.m. Moscow time. Yesterday, the trade volume was just $19m at the UTS at the same time. The average lot of dollars to be sold was $1.7m in the first 90 minutes of trading.


    A Bank of Moscow expert told RBC TV that the trade volume on MICEX including a special session for today deals almost reached $1bn in the first 30 minutes of trading. The expert said that the Central Bank's activities could be attributed to the dollar's decrease on international exchanges and growth in the gold and currency reserves in Russia. However, the Central Bank's leaving the market at the end of the week was quite unexpected. The specialist thinks that the Central Bank is currently concerned about its obligations on preventing inflation.


    -END-


    In recent weeks MIDAS has mentioned a number of price-fixing cartels in the United States and elsewhere. The highly regarded Don Coxe enhances the subject matter:


    Basic Points


    Donald G. M. Coxe



    Global Portfolio Strategist, BMO Financial Group
    Chairman, Harris Investment Management, Inc.
    Chairman, Jones Heward Investments Inc.


    An Investment Journal


    Dollar Devaluation: The American Strategy


    To Win The Real World Series


    ....the dollar is
    now the subject of
    a price-fixing
    cartel....


    The way statisticians record global trade, GDP, and shares of global wealth is in dollars. By those statistics, a stronger dollar gives the US a greater share in global GDP and in share of global trade.


    But that same stronger dollar gives US businesses and farmers a smaller share of its own GDP.


    Why? Because US producers incur their costs in a strong currency and then try to sell into countries whose producers incur their costs in a weaker currency, enabling them to undercut US producers in their own markets—and in the USA itself. Result: the US trade deficit, which for years was in the range of 2% of GDP, has been climbing steadily since the beginning of Clinton's second term and is now more than 5% of GDP. We work in the Upper Midwest, and we are acutely aware what the overpriced dollar has done to manufacturers here.


    And how many workers who lost their jobs when the recession hit didn't get them back when the US emerged from recession, because their former employers were priced not only out of foreign markets, but out of their own market?


    Free currency markets are the world's way of balancing out cost differentials and avoiding massive external imbalances. But the US goes deeper into debt daily to foreigners and the dollar stays at levels that keep the US uncompetitive. Why doesn't the currency fall, to


    restore trading equality?


    Answer: because the dollar is now the subject of a price-fixing cartel which operates roughly the way OPEC used to operate back when it was in control of oil pricing and there was massive overcapacity in world oil production.


    We published an analysis of the global dollar cartel, The Great Symbiosis, in February. In that essay, we showed how Japan and China, with help from other Asian central banks, had put a seemingly impregnable support under the dollar through their willingness to buy hundreds and hundreds of billions in Treasury bonds. The scale of this support was astounding and unprecedented: in just one week before we published that issue, Japan bought more than $60 billion in Treasurys as the yen was threatening to rise against the greenback…


    -END-


    A fellow Café member sent us this article from London saying, "This is the mainstream trade mag for the financial industry in London, very mainstream." It is another significant coup for GATA and extends our recent roll. Barry Riley is one of the most highly regarded journalists in England:


    Gold Waits as Base Metals Fall;
    South African Bid Is Reminder
    that the Commodity Has Great Potential


    Barry Riley
    E-Financial News
    Monday, October 25, 2004


    It has been a frustrating year for gold bugs, who have been forced to watch the bullion price tracking sideways while other commodities have been soaring -- oil by 60 percent and copper by 25 percent.


    But Harmony's cheeky bid last week for the somewhat larger Gold Fields, representing an attempt to create the
    world's largest gold producer, is a reminder that the yellow metal has great potential.


    There is a Chinese puzzle here. Soaring demand for industrial commodities by China, at the forefront of a global economic boom, has been the key factor in triggering the price inflation in raw materials, which has sent the GSCI index up by 36 percent this year.


    True, base metals suffered a sharp selloff this month and the mining sector of the stock market has tumbled too. There are fears of a Chinese slowdown. But there are fundamental capacity shortages in the international mining industry, which will support prices as long as the Chinese industrial machine continues to prosper.


    Gold is different. The bullion mining companies have had to watch the progress of their base metal peers with envy.


    The FTSE Gold Mines index is down 5 percent since the end of 2003, and a slightly higher exchange rate for the rand has put pressure on the profits of South African producers: Harmony has had to defend its profits through job cuts, for instance.


    Might China come to the rescue here too? The country has for several years been accumulating a hug hoard of U.S. dollars, mostly in the form of Treasury bonds.If it revalues its currency, as is constantly being rumoured on foreign exchange trading floors, it will take a hug hit in terms of its own money.


    But its options for diversifying the currency risks are few: euros, certainly, but other currencies are based on relatively small economies or, like the Japanese yen, cannot be regarded as reliably independent of the U.S. dollar.


    That leaves gold, traditionally a central banker's diversifier, but one that has fallen out of favour in recent years. China has not yet announced an official gold purchasing strategy but it has opened the doors for private buying by Chinese citizens.


    A weakening U.S. currency, moreover, must be concentrating the minds of the big dollar hoarders. As if on cue the bullion price rose last week to $425 an ounce, the highest level since a brief spike to near $430 in the spring. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar sank against the euro and hit and 11-year low against the Canadian dollar.


    The steady drain on gold from sales by central banks has slowed.


    Indeed, Argentina, which has no reason to trust the dollar, bought 42 tonnes of the metal during the summer and the new five-year Central Bank Gold Agreement, signed last month by the European Central Bank and 14 other institutions, will limit sales to 500 tonnes a year.


    Gold bulls doubt whether sales will even reach those target levels in the context of a weak dollar and a rising gold price.


    Apart from China, there is also speculation that the newly oil-rich Russia will diversify its growing foreign exchange reserves, which are about to exceed $100 billion, by adding some yellow metal. In fact, North American gold speculators, led by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, have for years been accusing the U.S. Treasury of covertly manipulating the gold price, starting in 1998, when, allegedly, a big bullion short position amassed by Long-Term Capital Management, the failed hedge fund, was secretly absorbed.


    Soon afterwards, in 1999, the Bank of England launched a highly publicised series of auctions involving 415 tonnes, sold at sub-$300 prices, which now look like very poor value for the British taxpayer.


    This summer the gold price suppression allegations were assembled in a document published by Sprott Asset Management, which runs hedge funds out of Toronto. The World Gold Council, the London-based global mining trade association, refuses to accept speculators' claims that it is being misled by the leading central banks about the extent to which they have lent gold to the markets and capped the price.


    Nevertheless, the World Gold Council last month launched a research study titled "Gold as a Hedge Against the U.S. Dollar." After statistical tests, as detailed in the study, gold turns out to have been an erratic but "remarkably robust" hedge: It cannot be debased in the way that currencies can.


    Past sharp movements in the gold price -- in the 1930s, for example, and the 1970s -- have usually been associated with currency crises. For periods as long as several decades, however, gold can be a very dull investment.


    You have to smell trouble ahead for gold to be at all appealing.


    With the U.S. trade deficit spiralling ever higher, there are plenty of serious dollar bears around at the moment.


    Now for an intriguing power struggle among the gold mining giants. The two combatants are based in South Africa but have broad international share ownership, including the 20 percent stake in Gold Fields owned by the Russian mining group Norilsk Nickel.


    The latter has its own agenda, probably involving the attractions of spinning off its Russian gold interests into the newly merged group, thus placing assets out of the easy reach of the Russian government.


    Such a combination -- creating the world's biggest gold producer, though one less valuable in terms of market capitalisation than Newmont of the United States -- would have the advantage of spreading Harmony's production risks more widely outside South Africa.


    But, for a big payoff, Harmony would need to benefit from a revival in the bullion price. A rise to above $430 an ounce, a 16-year high, would be a start.


    Continued strength in the Chinese and Indian economies would greatly help demand because gold is a highly popular commodity in those countries. Above all, however, central banks will need to take a different attitude to gold and the dollar.


    -END-


    Speaking of the useless World Gold Council…. They are again serving the cabal's interests by promoting paper gold products instead of physical metal. Now it is providing South Africans with a way to buy paper gold, taking away money that would otherwise go into physical bullion. It's another big screw-up by the World Gold Council. But at least MineWeb correctly labels this product for what it is -- paper gold, so hopefully the South Africans will understand that this new WGC product isn't worth the paper its printed on and therefore still go for physical metal instead of just some gold denominated paper promise.


    http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/385325.htm


    Paper gold for Johannesburg
    By: Allan Seccombe
    Posted: '25-OCT-04 16:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004


    JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- From next Tuesday retail and institutional investors in South Africa will be able to invest indirectly in gold through securities on the JSE Stock Exchange called NewGold Gold Bullion Debentures. They are being promoted by Absa Corporate & Merchant Bank in association with the World Gold Council. Until now, local investors exposure to gold has been largely restricted to gold coins, jewellery and gold miners’ shares….


    -END-


    Joke of the day emanates from the Yahoo finance board:


    "The dollar's drop against the euro and Goldman Sachs' move to raise its gold price forecast to $420 from $400/oz in 2005, and to $400 from $350/oz in 2006, have also helped the commodity."


    How about that audacious call from Goldman "Hannibal Lecter" Sachs! Can you imagine them being this bearish on any other sector they cover on Wall Street three years into a bull market? Just as bad is they weren’t bullish at any point in time all the way up. No way they can be that stupid, uninformed and of so little value to their formidable clients. They cannot be that inept, just that corrupt.


    More on the Wall Street sewer:


    SEC Sees Indications
    Of Fund Payments
    To Pension Planners


    By DEBORAH SOLOMON and CHRISTOPHER OSTER
    Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
    October 25, 2004; Page C1


    The Securities and Exchange Commission is finding troubling indications that mutual-fund companies and other money managers paid retirement-plan consultants to be recommended to the consultants' clients, people familiar with the probe said…


    -END-

    There is much excitement over the US election because it is so close. It is turning into one of my pet peeves since neither of the two, or their parties, are addressing what they are going to actually do about the horrendous problems facing the US. The election is so close because the contenders for the Presidency are so similar, as are their agendas. Both are Yalie Skull & Bones. Both are backed by the same elitist big money. Both refuse to address the issues which are going to bury America financially in the years to come. To name a few:


    *The mortgaging of our future via the uncontrollable US budget deficits (how true conservatives can vote for Bush is beyond me). The US trade and budget deficits have reached 6%. Historically, this is a point at which foreigners refuse to fund debt. This is what happened in Argentina when their % hit 5 to 5.5%. We are gradually becoming an Argentina with no end in sight.


    *The disastrous Iraq War, the biggest blunder in US history, is costing $200 billion, also with no end in sight. How are we going to pay for this in the years to come? Meanwhile, the insurgency in Iraq is growing by all accounts and the situation deteriorating on most fronts, especially security.


    *The unfunded liability problems of Medicare, Social Security and major pension funds are going to lead to financial market chaos. There are no realistic solutions offered by either candidate. The one person who wanted to deal with this these issues in the Bush Administration, former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill, was fired.


    I can’t think of any CEO in the country who would be re-elected with Bush’s record – loss of jobs, stock market going down, starting a debilitating war on false premises with over 1100 soldiers dead and over 7,000 maimed and wounded, etc.


    Re-elect Bush, IMO the worst President in the history of the US, if you want America. Let him be in the kitchen to take the heat in the years ahead. Fahrenheit 9/11 will be like a walk in the park.


    Before all the Café Bush fans jump all over me, I must point out that Kerry’s economic man, Robert Rubin, is the one most responsible for the coming financial market disasters in the US. He is the one who implemented the gold price rigging scheme as the main cog to his vaunted strong dollar policy. The gold rig has fostered extraordinary imbalances in the US financial market system which will need to be corrected for many years to come. During these corrections, the American public will suffer dearly.


    Vote Libertarian.


    The share prices of South African gold producers, and a number of others outside SA, have performed very poorly on this gold run-up compared to the one a year ago. Share prices are as much as 50% lower, or even more, than they were then with gold prices the same. The reasons vary; however, most of the underperformance is because of higher costs due to currency considerations and sharply higher energy prices. One of our more learned Café mining experts (many years as an executive in the business) sent us some info and clarification on all of this:


    The mining industry in general is under great pressure due to the increased cost (and sometimes lack of availability) of energy. In the case of precious metal mining many more negative factors; have to be counted with.


    The production of gold is diminishing due to manipulated low valuations; most mining companies have restricted grassfield and brownfield explorations. They have high graded their mines in order to achieve positive cash flows during periods of extremely low gold quotations. (Profits, if any, were minimal and yields unattractive for investors to purchase and hold gold mining shares). Only a few economically feasible properties were found and in general the reduced yearly production of gold is far superior to the new reserves yearly being found and developed.


    The mines in South Africa, historically the largest gold producing country in the world, produced well above 1000 metric (kilo) tons per year before 1970, now their production is well below 400 metric tons per annum. All other historically large production countries are suffering from reduced grades in their mineralizations, high energy cost, political risks, increased cost due to currency appreciation against the US$. The world gold quotation is still expressed in US Dollars and for instance the currency of South Africa has appreciated more than 50% in the last few years which has doubled their production cost in US currency. The Australian and Canadian currencies have similar problems, although to a smaller extent.


    Some mines in South Africa have to sustain operations at depths of 2500 up to 4000 meters below surface levels. The accumulated ground water and hot air are to pumped out and cold air (A/C) to be pumped in (temperatures at depths are very high and the cost of energy for this aspect of their operations are murdering. In the case of open pit or open cut operations (the latter is a typical Australian definition for open air mining operations), sometimes two or three times more earth/rocks have to be moved in order to reach paydirt, which contains the valuable metal content.


    By bringing "run of mine" ore to the surface for treatment, same containing sometimes only 6 or 10 grs of gold per metric ton, 1.000 kilos of rock have to be heisted to the surface for treatment in order to recuperate 90% of the gold content. This means discarding of every metric ton 999 kilos and 990 grams of rock after having been dynamited, mined and brought to the surface and treated in a large mill in order to extract only about 6 or 10 grams of gold. The cash cost is generally above US$ 200, per ounce of gold and cost of capital investment, administration, etc, etc, is to be added. This is not an attractive investment, because the yield does not commensurate with all the risks and costs involved in this industry.


    In spite of the negative aspects for investing in gold mining, many investors continue to purchase mining shares because of existing uncertainties today, like explosive political risks, expected monumental inflation and consequently money devaluations. In those cases the purchase of shares of those companies, with large reserves and resources, low political risks, good metal grade in ore, low cash cost for production and without any hedges/derivatives on their books, are desirable investments because of their intrinsic value once gold prices are moving freely again without market manipulation and consequently at substantial higher quotations than today.


    The downside risks in gold prices are minimal because of a substantial deficit between primary production and consumption (including hoarding or investment purposes) of reduced availabilities, high production cost, which can hardly be reduced due to unabated higher energy and labor outlays. So that there is now an effective floor on the future price of gold.


    Best regards,
    Your friend in Costa Rica


    When asked what to do about investing in firms such as Durban, my strongly held opinion is to hold, especially the Roodeport Rocket. It has had its troubles, however, as we all know they are rich with high cost reserves. As gold soars towards $500 and beyond, high mining costs will fade away as a detrimental reason for investors to stay away.


    The gold shares roared at the end of the day with the XAU jumping 3.60 to 105.96 and the HUI leaping 9 to 239.55, right below key resistance at 240. Way undervalued Golden Star Resources, my largest holding, gained 36 cents to $5.39. I spoke with management today and requested they put their junior World Gold Council membership on the table at their next Board meeting. Drives me crazy to see them throw away money to an organization that hurts the gold market and does nothing for them. It is ludicrous to pay those bums a dime. Meanwhile, GSS was around $8.40 when gold traded at these levels less than a year ago. Since then their gold resources have gone up by 30%. Stocks tend to be in favor, then out of favor. GSS one was in, now out. I fully expect it to be back in favor and a leader of the pack up in the months to come.


    HUI
    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8


    It was nice to see such a strong gold share close. Even some of the smaller golds showed some decent life.


    Has The Gold Cartel run out of bullets? For the short-term we should know very soon. They are itching to knock gold off its perch here. Yet, the perfect storm is closing in on the horizon. The storm clouds build and blacken by the day. Yes, if the dollar corrects tomorrow, the crooks will go after the gap left today at $424. However, if the dollar falls further or some event affects the financial markets before tomorrow’s opening, Murphy’s Law could strike the cabal. If gold opens sharply higher again tomorrow, it is possible we could get our long awaited Commercial Signal Failure as Gold Cartel allies run for the hills.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS


    Appendix


    Morgan Stanley


    <>Global: Cracked Facade


    Stephen Roach (New York)


    The delicate equilibrium in world financial markets may be starting to unravel. The dollar has broken out of its recent range, credit spreads are widening, equities are sagging, and riskless sovereign bonds are well bid. The message is worrisome: For an unbalanced and increasingly vulnerable world economy, the unrelenting rise of oil prices spells mounting risks of global recession in 2005. Financial markets are only just beginning to comprehend this possibility.


    There are lots of moving parts to this story. But the one that intrigues me the most right now is the dollar — down 3% against the euro and nearly 4% against the yen in the past two-and-a-half weeks. In my view, this move in the dollar is a "drop in the bucket" for a US economy with a 5.7% current account deficit that could easily climb in the 6.5% to 7.0% zone in the next year. The problem, of course, is that my currency view has been a lonely one over the past nine months. The Teflon-like greenback has begun to reverse some the depreciation of the previous couple of years — unwinding about three percentage points of the 13% real trade-weighted decline that had occurred since early 2002. But in recent weeks, I have felt less lonely, as the official community — both in the US and around the world — has come out in the open in expressing concerns about America’s gaping twin deficits and what they mean for the dollar. Fedspeak has been especially focused on this issue, with at least five Federal Reserve governors and regional bank presidents weighing in on this key risk. I don’t believe in conspiracy theories, but I don’t think this collective expression of concern is an accident.


    A weaker dollar has long been the centerpiece of my global rebalancing framework. Macro deals best with global imbalances by changing the world’s relative price structure. With the dollar the world’s most important relative price, depreciation is a perfectly natural way for the global economy to restore some semblance of equilibrium. But don’t expect the world to turn on a dime in response to currency changes. In fact, it has become increasingly clear over the past decade that trade flows and inflation are a good deal less sensitive to currency fluctuations than was the case earlier. In my view, a weaker dollar would, instead, be more of a signaling mechanism — sparking a back-up in US real interest rates as foreign creditors demand compensation for taking currency risk. For an overly-indebted US economy, higher real interest rates would impair credit-sensitive domestic demand, boost national saving, and reduce America’s claim on external saving. These are the characteristics of a classic current-account adjustment.


    Yet the world has resisted this adjustment. That’s been especially the case in Asia. Lacking in support from domestic demand, the Asian currency bloc has basically refused to participate in the dollar’s depreciation, putting a disproportionate share of the burden on the euro. Since the dollar’s peak in early 2002, the trade-weighted euro has risen about 20% (in real terms), whereas the trade-weighted yen — a good proxy for Asian currencies — has been basically unchanged. I have referred to the Asian currency zone increasingly as a renminbi bloc, underscoring the key role that China’s currency peg plays in inhibiting other Asian economies from suffering any competitive disadvantage with the region’s super-competitive trading powerhouse. Recent warnings of renewed currency intervention by Japanese Finance Minister Tanigaki underscore Asia’s renewed conviction to resist currency-induced global rebalancing.


    The authorities are now swimming upstream. Monthly data from the US Treasury reveal a sharp deceleration of foreign demand for dollar-denominated assets — $61 billion average net purchases in July and August versus a $76 billion average in the prior 10 months. This deceleration is worrisome for two reasons — the first being it has occurred against a backdrop of a dramatic widening of America’s current account deficit, which went from 4.5% in late 2003 to 5.7% in mid-2004. Second, private investors have already turned skittish on the dollar, forcing non-US policymakers to up the ante in filling the void. Over the 12 months ending August 2004, fully 33% of net foreign purchases of long-term US securities have come from the official sector — more than double the 15% share of the prior 12 months and over four times the portion over the 2000-02 period. With private inflows into dollars now going the other way at just the time when America’s external financing needs are exploding, extraordinary pressure is being put on Asian authorities to resist the inevitable.


    In the end, this is a losing game. Intervention cannot neutralize the deadweight of America’s massive current-account deficit. That’s the message to take from the recent fragility of the strong dollar. For what it’s worth, I suspect that the dollar’s slide will accelerate sharply in the aftermath of the US presidential election — probably more so in the event of a Kerry victory than would be the case in a Bush win. Senator Kerry’s focus on trade and jobs puts him more in the camp of embracing market-based resolutions to global imbalances. In either case, however, the dollar’s coming depreciation will pose a great challenge for an unbalanced global economy. The flip side of a weaker dollar spells currency appreciation elsewhere — forcing the export-led economies of Asia and Europe to embrace the reforms long needed to unshackle domestic demand. If Asia continues to resist, it faces a growing protectionist threat from both Europe and the United States. I remain convinced that the world’s unprecedented external pressures will be vented in one way or another — through markets or politics, or some combination of both.


    Meanwhile, the confluence of a number of other powerful forces is putting added pressure on an unbalanced global economy. Three such developments are at the top of my list. First, oil prices have now averaged in excess of $50 (WTI-basis) for six weeks — satisfying about half the three-month duration criteria that I believe would qualify as a full-blown oil shock. So far, the real side of the global economy has held up reasonably well in the face of this price spike, buying into the long-standing consensus forecast of a sharp and imminent reversal of oil prices. The longer that forecast turns out to wrong, the greater the threat to a complacent world. For this reason, alone, I continue to place a 40% probability on a global recession in 2005.


    Second, the China slowdown remains the big gorilla in this unbalanced world. The latest batch of Chinese data point to further, albeit uneven, deceleration in this overheated economy. The September figures on industrial output (+16.2%) and fixed investment (+27.7%) were all a bit stronger than those in August but significantly below the peak rates of comparison earlier this year — 19.4% for industrial production and 43% for investment. The big news, in my view, was a stunning deceleration in Chinese import growth — 22% in September versus a 36% increase in August and 50% peak growth rates earlier this year. This, together with a further slowdown in bank lending, points to the early signs of a long-awaited cooling off of Chinese domestic demand. Data elsewhere from China-centric Asia now corroborate this development — underscored by renewed cyclical weakening in Korea and recent slippage in Japanese export growth. China has a long way to go on the inevitable journey to a soft landing. That will require more policy restraint and entail increased transmission of the China slowdown to its trading partners and commodity markets, in my view.


    Third, is the potential unwinding of Pax Americana — a development of staggering implications for a long US-centric global economy. It’s not just the dollar-current-account dynamic described above. It also has to do with the possibility of a diminished US productivity advantage (see my 19 October essay, Productivity Convergence?). And it reflects the unrelenting backlash of re-regulation in the aftermath of the Roaring Nineties — underscored by Eliot Spitzer’s latest forays into the insurance and music industries, to say nothing of Enron-type accounting scandals, Wall Street’s travails, and the Sarbanes-Oxley legislation of 2002. All the stars were in alignment for the US economy in the latter half of the 1990s. But now, lacking in saving, encumbered with massive twin deficits, deeply in debt, and facing a very different productivity-regulatory nexus, America needs to be viewed through another lens. And so does the rest of the global economy as it weans itself from a US-centric growth dynamic.


    I’ve been on this global rebalancing kick for about three years. At times, it has worked well as a guide to developments in the global economy and world financial markets. On other occasions, that hasn’t been the case. But I remain convinced that it’s only a matter of time when powerful market forces transform profound imbalances into a more sustainable state of balance. Who knows what lies ahead over the near term in the financial markets? But the message of the past few weeks points to cracks in the façade of denial. I suspect there’s more to come.

    # Hallo Silversurfer


    ist ja sehr lobenswert alles in English hier reinzustellen, es gibt aber noch ein paar Deutsche hier im Forum, sei bitte doch so nett und bringe eine kurze Zusammenfassung in Deutsch, wäre Dir dankbar.


    der Doofe Deutsche


    gruß hpoth

    Das war schon die Tragik des Thai.

    Wer gegen die ganz Mächtigen argumentiert,

    wird lächerlich gemacht. Zum Schluß macht

    sich der Unabhängige sogar selbst lächerlich.

    Er verkriecht sich oder läuft verbal Amok.


    Es braucht sowas wie Anstand, sich von

    einer solchen Treibjagd fernzuhalten.


    gruss


    gogh

    hpopth


    Du hast im Prinzip völlig Recht. Ich würde auch lieber mehr aktuelle Texte in Deutsch lesen, aber viele Texte sind leider nur in Englisch zu bekommen und ob sich jeder die Mühe machen möchte / machen kann diese zu übersetzen wage ich zu bezweifeln.


    Im Allgemeinen ist jedoch ein starker Trend zum Englischen festzustellen. Sogar auf der Seite des Bundeskanzlers gab es einen Menüpunkt Kanzlernews und einen Kanzler für Kids.


    Bei uns in der Bank ist Englisch im Investmentbanking Bereich fast schon die Hauptsprache ?( ?(

    hpopth,


    Ich bin dankbar für jedes Posting,solange es sich um Berichte handelt,die unser Finanzsystem betreffen,sicherlich sind auch für mich Berichte in englischer Sprache,schwerer zu lesen,auf gar keinen Fall,sollten wir diese aber ausgrenzen.Man kann,man muss sie nicht lesen.Leider sind die meisten Berichte in Englisch,die Quartalsberichte der Minen sogar ausschliesslich.


    Wollt ihr wirklich darauf verzichten?? ?(



    Grüsse


    Kalle

    All,



    habe heute eine interessante Diskussion verfolgt,im Forum von Dottore.


    Wie bilanziert eine Zentralbank die Währungsverluste aus dem Verfall des Dollars? Gerade die Japanischische und die Chinesische,die durch Dollarhortung doch eigentlich massiv Probleme bekommen müssten?


    Bei Zentralbanken konnte das oftmals durch den Anstieg,der Währungsreserven,in Gold abgefedert werden.Mit welchen Bilanztricks kann ggf. eine Zentralbank,ihre Aktiva beeinflussen?


    Grüsse


    Kalle

    kalle14,


    der Gedanke ist absolut richtig. Die Währungsreserve von Japan beläuft sich auf ca. 800 Mrd. US-Dollar und von China ca. 470 Mrd. US-Dollar (Quelle: internationaler Währungsfonds), davon mind. ca. 65 % gehalten in US-Dollar.


    Wenn man mal unterstellt, dass der Dollar sich in diesem Jahr von 1,2 in Richtung 1,4 Dollar entwickelt, so wäre dies ein Währungsverlust von ca. 15 %, d.h. Japan hat ein Abwertungspotenzial von mind. ca. 80 Mrd. und China von 40 Mrd. (Tendenz der Risiken im nächsten Jahr: steigend).


    Da geht dann ein beträchtlicher Teil des Haushalts den Bach runter und die anderen Nationen tragen die Konsequenzen für das Handeln der USA. Wenn sie klug sind, werden sie versuchen so schnell wie möglich die Dollarbestände abzubauen. China ist ja schon dabei und kauft sich in Minenunternehmen ein.


    Gruß


    Silbertaler

    Silbertaler,


    danke für Deine Antwort,die nächste Frage hast Du damit bereits selbst gestellt.


    Die Reserven werden vorwiegend in Buchgeld und Bonds gehalten,die ja nicht so schnell zu versilbern wären,oder?


    Finde das Thema äusserst interessant,und hoffe auf eine angeregte Diskussion.Kann,muss nicht wichtig sein.


    Grüsse


    Kalle

    kalle14,


    um die Dimension in Japan zu veranschaulichen als Wiederholung einen Beitrag, den ich am 11.3. im Forum Gold & Silber, Minen, Börse und Wirtschaft gepostet habe:



    Der Yen hat nun ein massives Problem.


    Smartie hat im Forum aktuelle Wirtschaftsdaten einen Link zu einem Artikel eingestellt, wonach chinesische Privatleute massiv mit Dollarverkäufen beginnen.


    Ich würde sagen: Es geht nun so langsam richtig los. Der Run aus dem Dollar und rein in Rohstoffe beginnt.


    Gruß


    Silbertaler

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