Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

I can’t ever recall a bullish consensus number falling so fast and so far. This is on top of all the bearishness exhibited at the NO Investment Conference.

We now have two extremes. The cash gold market is roaring, yet the speculators and gold share investors are bearish/morose. This has to be resolved in the near future. My bet is that we are set up for a gold/share price explosion as we head into January and beyond. The substantial physical buyers around the world in India, China, Arab countries, etc., don’t give a hoot what western stock investors think.

What strikes (but not surprise) me is how no one out there is dealing with the most important aspect of the market and that is the price has been artificially and surreptitiously suppressed for 7 to 10 years via central bank gold supply. The Gold Cartel has used up 1500 tonnes, or so, per annum of this gold to foster their scheme. This supply is finally beginning to dry up just as mine supply is waning and demand for gold is surging. Next year, this continuing convergence is going to send gold SHARPLY higher.

The John Brimelow Report

Happy Indians vs. NY (shorts?)

Tuesday, December 14, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.67, PM $8.62, with world gold at $438.55 and $438.65. High: very ample for legal imports. Reuters carries a specimen of a fairly rare story: India bullion dealers exulting over business:

"NEW DELHI, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Gold demand in India, the world's largest importer, has been boosted by soft global prices and fresh gains made by the rupee…traders said on Tuesday. "It is the best buying opportunity," said Ashok Chokshi, a leading trader from Ahmedabad's bullion trading hub of Manikchowk Dealers in Bombay, India's financial capital, said 600 to 700 kg of gold was being sold every day in the city, compared with 400 to 500 kg at the beginning of December. "Vacation demand is boosting sales and if prices remain at the current levels we hope to do good business," Suresh Hundia, an official of Bombay Bullion Association, told Reuters Sales in the western city of Ahmedabad, which supplies gold to the adjoining states of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, have doubled to around 300 kg daily from a week ago, traders said."

This type of report is usually a signal of a world gold price low.

Indian buying power looks like being further accentuated by a further rise in the rupee. The Reserve Bank apparently intervened to block a further rise today, but expectations are widespread that it will permit more gains shortly.

TOCOM is not interested. Volume fell 19% to equal only 15,224 Comex lots; open interest edged up the equivalent of 293 NY contacts; World gold was 10c above NY at the close, at $438.50, while the active contract ended up 12 yen. (Yesterday NY traded 51,444 contracts: open interest edged up by 177 lots.)

Shanghai, curiously, continues to show rather high ($1.60 - $1.80) premiums to world gold.

Flat open interest despite a $5 rise in Feb gold yesterday supports the view expressed by Refco Research after the close:

"The Commitment of traders….sizeable increase in noncommercial shorts helps explain the large drop into open interest seen recently notwithstanding February gold’s staunch defense of 435—a good deal of short covering is going on."

(No Dealer commentator, of course, ever reports these positions being established.) Others, however, clearly sense selling, possibly shorting, interest is still around. Mitsui-London commented this morning:

"Gold saw very good two way interest through Comex and Asian hours with what really seemed to be specs positions changing hands. 430-432 support remains intact and we look for choppy conditions to prevail. We expect range trading to continue with an eventual and more rigorous test of this support."

This would appear to reflect conventional trading wisdom in NY Mark Hulbert reports on CBSMarketWatch today that his Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, which is weighted to bullion timers, has dropped a huge 52 points in the last few days to stand at 19.6%. And Dennis Gartman is still cheering on the Bears.

All of this will be making the Fathers of Indian brides, vintage ’04, very happy indeed.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The dollar rose .21 to 82.44 and could not take out resistance at 82.50. The euro lost .20 to 133.11, while the pound rose .12 to 191.75.

The DEC bond rose ½ a point to 114 8/32.

The DOW gained 39 to 10,676, while the DOG leaped 11 to 2160.

By the action of the US stock and bond markets, you would think all is rosy out there in US financial market land. Markets do what they do. Fighting city hall has been a losing proposition as of late. It won’t be next year.

US economic news:

08:30 Oct. Trade deficit reported $55.5B vs. consensus $53B
Prior reading revised to $50.9B from $51.6B prior.

US trade gap swells more than expected in October

WASHINGTON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened nearly 9 percent in October to a record $55.5 billion as sky-high oil prices helped propel imports into uncharted territory, the government said on Tuesday.

October's unexpectedly large shortfall pushed the deficit tally for the first ten months of the year to $500.5 billion, surpassing the record of $496.5 billion for all of 2003.

Despite a continued slide in the value of the dollar, the trade gap grew by 8.9 percent in October, from a revised $50.9 billion in September. The shortfall was much larger than a mid-point estimate of $53.0 billion from Wall Street analysts surveyed by Reuters.

Imports jumped to a record $153.5 billion in October, fueled by record prices for imported oil which averaged $41.79 per barrel, according to the Commerce Department.

The United States imported a record $9.5 billion worth of oil and other goods from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The trade gap with OPEC also set a record at $7.2 billion.

The U.S. trade gap with China - politically sensitive because U.S. exporters blame an artificially low yuan currency for keeping the China's goods unfairly cheap -- also hit a record $16.8 billion, as imports from the Asian giant leapt to a record $19.7 billion.

-END-

A couple of key points on the trade number:

*The spin on CNBC was the huge number was much higher than expected due to the $50+ oil prices of previous months finally showing up and this will be mitigated in the months to come because of the sharp drop in the oil price. True, about the drop, however, whether oil will remain around $40 for very long is dubious. Just as likely to go back up next year.

*A more ominous note was the trade gap with China. It is going up, not down, and is not falling because of their currency peg to the dollar. Thus, the drop in the dollar is having no affect, with the trade gap with the Chinese actually worsening. This does not bode well for the dollar down the road.

08:55 Redbook chain store sales index (0.8%) through 12/11 week vs November
Unchanged from the prior (0.8%) reading through the 12/4 week.
* * * * *

09:16 Nov. Ind. Production reported 0.3% vs. consensus 0.2%; Cap. Utilization 77.6% vs. consensus 77.8%
Prior revised to 0.6% from 0.7%, and 77.5% from 77.7%, respectively.

As usual these days, no surprises from the Fed announcement:

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers raised the benchmark U.S. interest rate a quarter point to 2.25 percent and restated a plan to carry out further increases at a ``measured'' pace.
``The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement released after the meeting in Washington. ``With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.''..

-END-

However, a number of traders were looking for some kind of dollar supportive commentary. They got zip. Hard to see the dollar mounting any sort of sustained rally in the weeks ahead, as the fundamental news re the dollar deteriorates. Once again we see signs the US budget deficit will worsen, not improve as urged by foreign countries that hold dollars as reserves:

Pentagon Emergency: Additional $80 Billion For Iraq, Afghanistan
Tue Dec 14 2004 10:23:54 ET

Pentagon officials said they will ask the Bush administration for an additional $80 billion in emergency funding to help pay costs of the military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, slightly higher than the $70 billion to $75 billion many on Capitol Hill had expected.

The WALL STREET JOURNAL reports Tuesday: "Senior Pentagon officials met to review and finalize the new budget request before sending it to the White House this week.

"The final White House request, which will be submitted to Congress early next year, would probably come in between $75 billion and $80 billion, pushing the total military costs, since the Iraq war began, to well over $230 billion. 'The [Defense Department] request is on the higher side of our expectations,' said an official involved in the process. 'We are still sorting through it to figure out what the final number will be.'" Another "US official said the total Pentagon request would likely be in the $80 billion to $89 billion range."

-END-

Silver input yesterday from Rhody:

Hi John! Thank you for that illustration of charges at a silver bullion bank.
That was a perfectly timed buy. The 2 pm London fix was $6.65 and the COMEX closing price was $6.68, so they should have charged you the higher of those two. So it SHOULD have been 6.68 + .20 retail mark up + .30 bar charge + $5 paper charge and all that times exchange of 1.24. You got charged .15 per ounce more. That does not mean they cheated you. THEY HAVE RAISED THE SPREADS!

That's a sign of stress and tightness of supply! I have been waiting for this! Spreads are up .15 cents per ounce at Scotia Mocotta! Yet the actual disinflated price is cheaper now than it was in year 2000 by about 10% NOW I'm going to scream this from the electronic roof tops to anyone who has enough grey cells to understand the implications, starting with Ted Butler and the guys at Midas. Thank you very much for the report on this Toronto bullion bank..... I love these bullion bank guys! They play paper games with the physical market by naked shorting futures contracts to lower the price to ridiculous levels and then RAISE THE SPREADS when Joe Public walks through the swinging doors to buy some actual metal. GEEEEEEE, I thought low prices meant plentiful supply..... (snicker) Yup, there's lots of paper silver out there but RISING SPREADS says the exact opposite for real metal!
Regards Rhody aka Bryan.

A golds-eye view from London:

Good morning Bill
Once again uncertainty seems to be prevelant in the gold bull camp. But isn't this the nature of early bull markets which haven't yet reached the level of maturity where nearly everyone is bullish?

Take a look at the attached chart. I placed the blue uptrend lines on this chart in October, as soon as gold broke out of the "handle" of the "teacup", shown by the horizontal green lines. "If you had used the lower blue line as support (buy) and the higher blue line as resistance (sell)," you would have captured most of the run from $420 to $455. Gold then moved from the upper "sell" blue line to the lower "buy" blue line in 5 days trading, stopping not only on that line, but on the top of the "handle" and on the 50 day moving average as well. Gold was moving from weak to strong hands during the year it spent in the "handle". Is it really likely that those who accumulated physical gold during that period would sell it now?

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Midas1214A.gif]

Teacup and handle formations are very rare, but are very reliable indicators of the move to come, which takes gold to around $580 oz.
Best wishes.
Ian

Input on one of the possible reasons for continued crummy action in the gold shares:

Bill,
The implications of this story is continued pressure on currencies and perhaps precious metals, at least until the liqudation runs its course.
Brian

Hedge funds nurse heavy losses in early December

Fri Dec 10, 2004 05:05 PM ET By Svea Herbst-Bayliss

BOSTON, Dec 10 (Reuters) - December has not been a merry month for hedge funds, say managers who point to heavy losses at many funds caught off guard as the dollar rallied and crude oil prices sagged.

Late on Friday as crude oil futures tumbled nearly 4.3 percent and the dollar gained broadly for the third straight session, investors and managers said they heard talk that some hedge funds had lost so much money they had to shut down.

While the speculation could not be immediately confirmed, investors and managers alike said they were not surprised and braced for more bad news next week.

"Right now any number of hedge funds could be losing big chunks of their capital," said Philippe Bonnefoy, the head of Comas Management, an adviser to the alternative investment unit of Commerzbank Securities.

He said hundreds of funds with energy, currency, or U.S. bond positions might be vulnerable.

Because hedge funds, unlike most mutual funds, often employ borrowed money, their gains -- or losses -- can add up fast.

By week's end, there were no official numbers that might indicate big losses during the first 10 days of the month in the loosely regulated and highly popular $890 billion market.

But individual managers provided anecdotal evidence, saying they had lost about 20 percent, while others said they have given back 50 percent of this year's gains.

"There are a lot of people out there who have been absolutely clobbered since the end of November," said one manager who asked not to be named.

Ironically, December's losses may be linked to the previous month's gains, when hedge funds finally had a strong month after a string of months with paltry performance.

"If you made money in November and you didn't change your positions in early December, you probably lost a lot of money," said Tim Rudderow, whose Mount Lucas Management fund manages $1.5 billion in assets.

Investors finally stormed back into the markets last month after the victory of President George W. Bush in the hotly contested U.S. presidential election.

Long-absent volatility picked up again and the average hedge fund returned 2.75 percent, posting the year's largest gains, data released this week by the Hennessee Group show.

For many funds, the month was far better than the average, managers said.

"In general, November was spectacular and many funds had their best returns ever," Bonnefoy said.

But what worked in November -- the falling dollar, rising crude oil prices and a jump in stocks -- has not worked in December when markets were hit by softer U.S. payroll numbers, the dollar pared losses against the euro and crude oil prices retreated. Also the jump in stock prices slowed.

"We took profits, but we didn't get out of this unscathed," Rudderow said.

Some funds, whose performance had been lackluster all year, may have tried to make too much money back too quickly, getting burned along the way with huge positions, investors and managers said. But they also said it is only the middle of the month and there is still time to make up losses before year's end.

-END-

There’s that manipulation word being associated with a Gold Cartel member again:

14 Dec 2004 13:21

CSFB receives subpoena related to AIG probe - source

NEW YORK, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse First Boston has received a subpoena as part of a probe into the possible manipulation of American International Group Inc.'s <AIG.N> stock price by Maurice Greenberg, head of the insurance company, a person familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

The grand-jury subpoena is seeking information about CSFB's AIG-related trading activity in August 2001, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity. At that time, New York-based AIG was in the midst of buying insurance company American General Corp. for $23 billion in what was then the largest-ever insurance takeover…

-END-

The gold shares can’t rally even for Santa’s sake, yet seem pretty sold out at the same time. Whenever they have dipped the past week, their sinking spells run out of steam. The XAU lost .65 to 99.15, while the HUI gave up 1.41 to 215.97.

If I were short gold at the moment, I would be petrified to have so much company. Hard to find a bull anywhere, yet here we are with the cash market on fire and $435 gold, a level we used to drool about years ago. The surprise to most of the pundits will be the gold move UP, way up from here in the next 6 weeks. The physical market will lead the way.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

HOW THE GOVERNMENT PULLS THE WOOL OVER YOUR EYES
By JOHN CRUDELE
NY Post

http://www.nypost.com/business/36394.htm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

December 14, 2004 -- CONSUMERS can be forgiven if they haven't noticed that today's clothes dryers offer more bang for the buck than they did a few years ago. They'll still dry your towels, but the government thinks you are enjoying the machines more.

Same for refrigerators, as well as college textbooks, microwave ovens and audio equipment. In fact, over the next few years the government promises to keep track of hundreds of other everyday items to determine how technological changes — or, more often, just the elimination of older models — affects the price.

But this isn't just some arcane project aimed at keeping government statisticians busy until they can gently slide into retirement. In fact, this is the Bureau of Labor Statistics' "hedonic quality adjustment" project and it is crucial to Washington's efforts to keep you and me from realizing just how much more we are paying for stuff.

This all began in the 1990s when some Washington economists — most notable was Michael Boskin of the elder Bush's administration as well as Alan Greenspan — decided that they were pretty sure the Consumer Price Index that was released by the government each month overstated inflation.

The CPI also happens to be the gauge used by the government to determine how much of an increase Social Security recipients and others will receive each year, so there were some very real benefits if Washington could prove this point.

With that as the end goal, the big thinkers went into overdrive (another quality adjustment, I suppose) to prove their point. Soon the economic theory of hedonics was adopted, taking its name from the Greek word "hedonism" which I guess can be roughly translated into "oh, that new clothes dryer sure does make me feel good."

In my last column I explained how the BLS manages to turn huge jumps in housing prices into modest ones. Today's column, the fourth in this series, will show you some other nifty tricks of the trade.

"As seen in both Democratic and Republican administrations there has been a concerted effort to lower the reported level of the CPI," says John Williams, author of a newsletter called Behind The Government's Numbers. "Given the original intent of the CPI — which was to measure a fixed basket of goods — this is nearly criminal."

The irony is this: Even as the government is working hard to keep the reported inflation down, Fed chief Greenspan has been raising rates because he says he is worried about rising costs. There's more to rate hikes — another of which may come today — than that. They are also an attempt to prop up the value of the dollar. But on the surface, the Fed's position on inflation is extremely contradictory.

Which brings us to the big question. While we were busy worrying about the cost of living, did the government suddenly pull a fast one by changing the rules by making it measure of the cost of pleasure?

Now, take this to the most ridiculous extreme: One day you walk into a supermarket and can afford to buy nothing. As you leave with your empty shopping cart, you really haven't experienced any price rise. You'll starve, but inflation — as far as the government views it — is under control.

Next, consider something the government calls "intervention analysis." The best my sources and I can figure is that intervention analysis has something to do with removing the blips in the prices of certain goods from the calculations, although we still can't figure out how it is done or when.

Did Washington statistically intervene to make the recent rise in the price of gasoline go away? I'll have to leave that for another episode.

jcrudele@nypost.com

December 15 – Gold $440.50 up $5.10 – Silver $6.80 up 11 cents

Come on Santa! Gold Back Above $440 With Most Pundits Bearish

Give not that which is holy unto the dogs, neither cast ye your pearls before swine, lest they trample them under their feet, and turn again and rend you....Jesus, Sermon On The Mount

The tone for today was clearly set last evening. The dollar was hammered in early Asian trading, with the Euro dropping .40, etc. Gold, which sometimes drops like a stone on this kind of activity, refused to go down, falling only 40 cents for a brief moment. Before too long, it popped right back up during the Asian trading session.

This was good to see as it lent visible support to what I mentioned on Monday about a potential price setback following that day’s gold surge to $438.50:

"It was apparent to me last week that The Gold Cartel and trade, such as hedged gold producers, were in there buying what they could in the low $430’s. As a result of today’s price advance, they are likely to up their buy points to the $435 level, should we retreat back there again." (which is just what happened Tuesday during the day and evening).

The breakout from $430 was huge technically. The way gold held above that level, after the big collapse, gives credence to the importance of the breakout from that point. Dips should continue to be bought by those who are out of the market and want to get back in with comfortable entry level positions, using $429 as a stop out point.

Of course, the dollar reversed course in a major league way during European trading and gold followed the euro up with a controlled lag, coming in almost $4 higher on the Comex session.

Today could be a very important one in the scheme of things for our camp:

*Gold moved above pivotal $440 resistance and closed there, even though The Gold Cartel’s price-capping presence could not have been more blatant.
*Silver moved higher along with gold, confirming some power in the precious metals, although it faded late.
*Oil, given up for mortsville, rocketed higher, closing at $44.19, up $2.37, while heating oil super rocketed 8.39 cents to $1.3884.
*The CRB leaped 5.07 to 284.44. After a drubbing the past few weeks, it is storming back.
*It wasn’t only the oil complex which exhibited commodity strength. Cocoa rose 69 to 1667. Coffee gained 6.50 cents to $1.0050 per pound. OJ popped 4.15 cents to 88.90 cents.

What is really LaLa Land is the bond market! The December 30-year closed at 114 7/8, up a whopping 3/4 and made a stunning new contract high. How can we get the sort of inflation numbers we have had, a healthy economic number out of New York today, have the dollar go poopsville, commodity prices do what they are doing, and then have bonds make contract highs (new low yields)? It makes no sense, unless to you subscribe, of course, to the notion of many in the GATA camp that The Working Group on Financial Markets is intervening in that market, like it does with gold. The buying by the mysterious Caribbean accounts must be enormous these days.

Something is very wrong out there.

The contradiction:

January CRB
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/15

December 30-year Treasury bonds
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/C4

Must be the news out of Washington which sent bonds flying. Then again, the more Secretary Snow talks, the less sense he makes:

07:31 Treasury Secretary Snow says has discussed potential for financing social security reform with bond market -- CNBC
Says that reduction in deficit would be good for bond market. Reiterates "strong" dollar policy. Snow says he is confident that reform could be funded with $850B-$1T bond issuance.
* * * * *

Results of the US strong dollar policy today:

The dollar fell .68 to 81.76.
The euro rose 1.06 to 134.19.
The yen jumped to 104.26, after trading at 106 the other day.
The pound went up 1.50 to 193.23.

OK, let’s hear it for the strong dollar policy, while the dollar does its disappearing act. What Snow is really saying is the US is continuing its policy of rigging the gold market, which has been the essential element of the policy all along. He is reiterating the US will cap the gold price as much as possible, according to Fed Chairman Paul Volker’s advice, to keep the dollar from going into total free-fall.

Now, as far as a comment on the bond market and SS: Makes sense for the bonds to soar today on the coming new supply. New bond supply coming on stream to finance SS reform is really very bullish. Huh?

Oops, not so fast on that strong dollar policy Mr. Snow. Just in:

Bush says dollar value against euro up to markets

WASHINGTON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush said on Wednesday it was up to the markets to decide the value of the dollar against the euro and added that a new rate hike by the Federal Reserve was an indication of concern about the weak dollar.

"We believe that the markets should make the decision about the relationship between the dollar and the euro," Bush told reporters at the end of a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi…. –END-

What is this? An Abbot and Costello routine, like, "Who’s on First?" Snow makes a point the US has a "strong dollar policy," then a few hours later Bush says it is up to the market. What Bush is really muttering is the free market should set the dollar exchange rate, yet behind the scenes the US is controlling its descent by capping the price of gold.

The $6 Rule kicked in for the second time in three days, this time to the penny. On its high gold rose exactly $6 to $341.40. Other commodities rise 5 to 8% in a single trading session. However, a sold out gold market is NOT ALLOWED to go up more than $6, even as the dollar is battered. GOLDMAN SACHS AGAIN, acting in behalf of Treasury Secretary Snow’s instructions to defend the dollar, was the VISIBLE designated capper for the cabal. How many times over the years does this have to occur before any of the dingbats in the mainstream gold world give this repetitive farce the time of day? Answer: Never. If God showed up with a sign saying, "There is such a thing as the $6 Rule gold world. The Gold Cartel uses it to minimize excitement over gold on a given Comex trading session," the dingbats would say, "God doesn’t know what he is talking about." Either that or they would pretend he wasn’t there.

Here is a small excerpt I received from a Café member who was talking about someone in the know who works for Citigroup, a defendant in Reg Howe’s gold price manipulation law suit:

"Well the other week I was at a similar City function and found myself sitting next to the same person and we started to talk about gold which he thought was a poor investment because the central banks rigged the market!!" At least this fellow would wink when God showed up.

As far as the trading for the entire gold session went, same ole gripe. Gold continues to mostly trade like no other market in history. It made its highs in an early spike and that was it for the day. The cabal’s NO MAS sign went up again.

Here is another irksome bit. Almost without exception, when gold runs up and is hit by the $6 Rule, or rises above key technical resistance, it is IMMEDIATELY sold off in the Access Market by The Gold Cartel. Every stinkin’ time. This time gold is down 50 cents. It is disgusting!

The gold open interest only fell 1050 contracts to 316,029 on yesterday’s dip. Must have been more spec shorting as the trade was buying on the way down to $435.

The silver open interest gave up 1021 contracts to 101,774. It has fallen 25% from its recent high. This is an enormous drop and suggests this market is washed out and ready to move up to challenge its old highs.

Gold is falling further and further behind in terms of euros, finishing the day at 328.30. Only recently it reached 344. To give you some idea of the extent of the gold price manipulation, the euro is a little more than 1 point away from making a new high. Gold is $15 from making a new high. The clandestine intervention in the gold market is an outrage. So is the silence from the wimps in the gold industry who let the crooks get away with this nefarious farce time and time again. The sad part is this interference with free markets is going to end badly for so many unknowing souls down the road.

The John Brimelow Report

Bear Curry for Christmas? Chinese Gold says no revaluation

Wednesday, December 15, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.95, PM $9.56, with world gold at $436.15 and $437.60. High and extremely high: lavish for legal imports. After faltering initially, the rupee rose to a new recovery high: it has risen 2.2% in three days. The stock market rose to a new all time high amid foreign inflows described as "unprecedented". In essence, foreigners are buying Indian stocks and Indians are buying foreign gold. These sorts of premiums are normally associated with important lows in world gold.

Since the Indian close the currency appears to have risen further. India is supplying considerable dynamism to the world gold market right now.

By contrast, Japan’s contribution is modest. Open interest did edge up by the equivalent of 698 Comex lots to equal 112,378 NY contracts and Mitsubishi’s data implies a 3.6 tonne ( 1,157 Comex contract) gain in the general public long. Volume slipped 7% to equal only 14,223 Comex lots; the active contract slipped 2 yen but world gold went out up $1.25. (NY yesterday traded 36,649 lots; open interest fell 1,050 contracts.)

Chinese language markets are somewhat enigmatic. Reuters reports Hong Kong and Singapore dealers saying business is slow, but there are a couple of reports elsewhere which are more upbeat. One, via thebulliondesk.com reports the head of the China Gem Association saying, rather surprisingly that jewelry is now the third most important consumption item in China. See

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/e…-12/13/content_399719.htm

Another, from the South China Morning Post points to the 45% increase in Shanghai Gold Exchange volume so far this year amongst other stories of expanded interest, which it attributes to re valuation fears.

Of course, any resident of China expecting revaluation would actually defer buying anything likely to be influenced in price by world markets. That is why the decisive move of Shanghai Gold Exchange prices to premiums over world gold this month (after four months of significant discounts, despite lower gold prices) is significant. Unfortunately, it more probably indicates revaluation is not coming, rather than any huge surge in Chinese gold appetite.

On Tuesday and early today, UBS noted:

"Decent bids supported the metal at the lows although the upside was capped by good selling offers around $438/oz. In Asia gold had rather a quiet session with some early offers capping any upside in gold before strong Tocom general public buying interest saw the metal climb near the upper end of the session’s range."

(In fact strength late in the Japanese day probably more reflected the entry of India.) The capping seller(s) had to work very hard during NY hours: they are likely to have to work hard tomorrow too.

The Gartman Letter, important in my view as a mirror of comparatively astute professional trading opinion, has started to waver in its gold negativism:

"Were it not for the fact that the public…has not been sufficiently liquidated out of their positions we'd very likely be buying somewhere around these levels. Having seen spot gold trade to $455 rather recently, the fact that it is back to the $435-438 level would normally be sufficient to entice us back into the fray. Our interest thus is rising, and when we trade again we shall be buyers of course." (JB emphasis)

I continue to think that we have not yet seen the 2004 high in gold – indeed that it might be quite a bit higher. For the next two weeks, the main physical markets will be open most of the time; the bear-friendly Western derivatives markets less so.

JB