Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

*Perhaps today’s oil price action is revealing/reflecting concern over what lies ahead. Oil was firm early on, climbing sharply to $48 per barrel. When bearish oil stats (see below) were announced at 10:30 AM, the price cratered below $47 per barrel. However, the price crept back to unchanged and then exploded late to finish the day at $48.33, up $1.07 per barrel on the session. Technically, in the commodity markets we had yet another outside day key reversal to the upside with oil doing what it did.

*Silver managed to climb back and closed higher than where it traded most of last evening and most of this morning. Those who sold in the hole are now trapped if they were new short positions.

*The gold open interest rose 2515 contracts to 262,589, as a result of new spec buying and cartel selling. Still, this is a relatively low number and leaves room for the specs to power gold through $430. The silver open interest rose 878 contracts to 96,899 and is also relatively low. Plenty of room for the specs to pile in here too and easily take silver to new highs.

April gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/45

Gold filled the near-term gap it left right below the market after a previous gap opening. Having recovered nicely on the day after filling that gap, gold was strengthened from a technical standpoint and has built strength to take it through $430.

Nothing wrong with that gold chart. None at all. Gold broke out on Monday, taking out a well-defined downtrend line. During the last two days of cabal selling, it has held above its breakout point. Gold is warming up to go much higher, along with silver.

The John Brimelow Report

Sensible Resource Investor

Wednesday, February 16, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.75, PM $6.69, with world gold at $424.70 and $424 .Adequate, and ample, for legal imports. Reserve Bank pressure on the rupee might have abated.

TOCOM selling pressure might have abated, too. On volume equal to 17,129 Comex (-42%) open interest fell the equivalent of only 302 Comex lots. The active contract went out up 5 yen, but world gold was down 25c, at $425.25. (NY yesterday traded 49,926 contracts. Open interest rose 2,515 lots.)

Shanghai gold, reopening for the first time since the 4th, showed slight (4-50c) premiums. An effort to rally gold yesterday in NY hours was once again defeated by determined selling in the upper $420s. ScotiaMocatta says:

"Gold started the New York session 425.20/425.70 and soon worked its way higher as both Comex based funds and New York dealers were noted buyers. The price topped out at 427.10/427.60 but …Overseas sellers seemed to catch the market positioned long, helping to force gold to the session low of 423.50/424.00. The sell off allowed scattered resting scale down physical buy orders to be filled."

Once again the absence of visible short covering has to mean that fresh buying was more substantial than the open interest numbers superficially suggest – and therefore the selling too.

Various alarming news events notwithstanding (and how much more alarming can the Middle East news get, short of war?) gold is clearly capped by a serious seller in the upper $420s.

One is struck by a very sensible commentary on the IMF posted on the relatively new Resource Investor web site:

"…whatever happened to moral hazard in banking?...borrowers with shocking risk profiles were extended almost unlimited lines of credit…"Highly indebted poor country" is another way of saying "planet sized non performing loan"…this…is yet another government shakedown to save multilaterals and their creditors…"

See http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=8307

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW rallied later on in the day, as is so often the case, and only closed down 2 to 10,385. The DOG followed, finishing the day at 2087, down 2 also.

In a gyrating day the dollar ended up .12 to 83.72. Most currencies were weaker against the dollar; however, the March euro was up slightly to 130.31.

US economic news:

08:30 Jan. Housing Starts reported 2.159M vs. consensus 1.925M; Building Permits 2.105M vs. consensus 2M
Prior Housing Starts revised to 2.063M from 2.004M; Building Permits revised to 2.069M from 2.021M.
* * * * *

The housing news was better than anticipated. The industrial production news was like most of the rest of the US economic news the past two months, slightly softer:

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Production at U.S. factories, mines and utilities was unchanged last month, held back by a decline in energy demand, according to a Federal Reserve report.

The result follows a 0.7 percent rise in December that was lower than first reported, the Fed said today in Washington. The share of industrial capacity in use fell to 79 percent from 79.1 percent. –END-

The economic news out of Japan was soft also:

Japan Falls Into Recession as 4th-Qtr GDP Shrinks

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's gross domestic product unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter, and revised figures also showed a contraction in the previous period, throwing the economy into its fourth recession since 1991.

The economy contracted at an annual 0.5 percent pace, the Cabinet Office said in a report in Tokyo today. The median forecast of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.7 percent pace of growth in the fourth quarter.

Sony Corp., Hoya Corp. and Citizen Watch Co. have cut profit forecasts because of slowing global demand for products including flat-panel displays and digital cameras. Companies are keeping costs down by putting a lid on wages, damping the consumer spending that makes up half of the world's second-largest economy.

``The headline is obviously Japan is in recession,'' said Richard Jerram, chief economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. ``The main reason that things slowed down so much in the second half was exports, and I think that consumption was a little disappointing.'' ..

-END-

Greenspan:

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy has firmed, and except for food and energy prices, inflation ``has remained low'' even with interest rates that remain ``accommodative,'' Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said.

``The economy seems to have entered 2005 expanding at a reasonably good pace, with inflation and inflation expectations well anchored,'' the Fed chairman said in the text of testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. ``The evidence broadly supports the view that economic fundamentals have steadied.''

Follow-up: Greenspan says markets remain more optimistic than business executives
Greenspan notes "exceptionally low" credit spreads and a "pervasive sense of confidence among investors".
* * * * *

00 Greenspan says fed funds rate remains "fairly low" despite past rate hikes
* * * * *

10:11 Follow-up x2: Greenspan testimony
The Chairman says that the economic fundamentals have "steadied" withconsumers helped by rising incomes and low interest rates. However,continued caution among business executives is noted. Inflation remains controlled, but Greenspan notes that slowing productivity growth could put pressure on prices in the future, though competitive pressures have limited inflation thus far. Greenspan also discusses narrowing credit spreads and the decline in long-term rates, noting many possible reasons for the surprising decline even as the Fed has hiked short-termrates. Finally, on the subject of the funds rate, Greenspan acknowledges the significant increase to date, but says that the real funds rate remains "fairly low" by most measures. Treasuries have moved lower on the testimony: 10-year (12/32) to yield 4.14%.

Oil news:

0:30 DOE reports crude oil inventories +2.1M barrels vs. consensus +1M barrels
Gasoline inventories reported +4.9M barrels vs. consensus +350K. Distillate inventories (3.1M) barrels vs. consensus (1.5M) barrels. March WTI crude is trading lower in reaction.
* * * * *

0:31 API reports crude oil inventories +5.6M barrels
Gasoline inventories +4.3M barrels, while distillate inventories (3.1M)barrels. March WTI crude is trading lower to $47.25 in fast market conditions in reaction to both sets of data.

From Jesse on the dollar:

Bill,
I could not remember if I had sent this to you. Its been on my web site since February 4th.

Bottom line is that as the Fed and Treasury play out their money game, the pressure point is the value of the dollar. The foreign central banks are straining to keep buying enough bonds to cover the trade deficit. The Fed and Treasury will have to start monetizing debt (I believe we're already there as of November and its starting to show now). They can play all the hedonic games they wish with prices, and gimmick interest rates as they can, but the dollar is the pressure point, the 'tell' as they say in poker.

65 is not the endgame for the dollar, and at some point if things hold together we might be a little shocked at how low it can and will go, and what we might become 'used to.'

Maybe I'm wrong. But no matter how I work the numbers it always comes out that the dollar is heading to 65 this year The stock market may do surprisingly well, because inflation is not necessarily a negative until people realize that price inflation exists and interest rates must increase.

Further, in a different chart on my site, I show pretty conclusively that as credit expands the stock market bubble can absorb a great deal of the 'money' that is created, but does not show up in M3! Its a classic Ponzi scheme. Nothing comes out in big way until the bubble starts to burst.

I can see a day in the not too distant future when a tsunami of dollars come back to us from overseas, and come pouring out of financial assets until the money supply seems to explode. In a situation like this gold will shine, and the dollar is further devalued most likely to something around .35.

Web Site http://www.geocities.com/arthurcutten/jesse

Dollar Chart: Three Ways to 65 http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/DollarVLT.gif

-END-

Rhody on leasing:

Good morning Bill:
Gold lease rates remain mixed, flattened and elevated, while silver lease rates continue to decline across the board. Now the near term silver rates are falling as well as the long term rates, although long term rates are falling faster. All of this suggests that there is a general withdrawal from the lease silver market, or there is a sudden surge in supply of available silver. I think the former is more likely. Entities might hesitate to borrow silver if they thought that the price of returning it was going to be excessive.
Regards, Rhody.
http://www.kitco.com/market/lfrate.html

The gold shares were very weak early in response to the gold and silver weakness and spent the day rallying from lower levels before fading late. The XAU closed up .09 to 93.95, while the HUI lost .39 to 207.75. The HUI fell all the way to 204.14, then went up .60 on the day before it gave up its gains near the close.

The Gold Cartel has huffed and puffed and has little to show for it. With tensions in the Middle East building, and the US doing nothing to seriously solve its fiscal problems, the odds of silver and gold taking off soon are quite high and probable in my book.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Michel de Chabert-Ostland

PREFACE

I've never worked this hard in my life; 90 to 100 hours/week is the norm. It's been a long day, a long week, a long month, a long year, and a very long five years. What no vacation ? Not for me. There is too much at stake: nothing less than the preservation of one's accumulated wealth and, with some luck, the opportunity to increase that wealth measurably.

The backbone of this nation's economic strength and dominance in many areas has been the role and acceptance of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. It is nothing new that the US dollar has been challenged of late but I don't think that many understand to what degree the US dollar is the Achilles heel of our economic system at home. In my humble opinion, we are on the threshold of a sea change in the role played by the US dollar on the world scene and its consequences for us with be very painful. I want to give you an example why I believe this is so:

Late in the evening, as the adrenaline wears off, I am in the habit of watching the Discovery or History Channels or CSPAN. About 10 days ago, I tuned in to CSPAN and there was someone from the GAO ( General Accounting Office ) in the middle of a Q & A session before a congressional committee regarding Bush's Social Security reform proposals. I didn't know at the time who he was and I was really tired so I listened with only one ear as I thought it might be the same rehash of previous testimonies. But this fellow seemed really pale and very serious and I decided to listen more carefully ( this took some effort as it was getting close to midnight and I'm up by 4 to 5am latest ). Before I knew it, he was mentioning as a courteous aside to the questions posed to him, that the spiraling healthcare costs to the government were a more pressing financial problem than social security ( you bet they are ) AND THEN HE ADDED ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT FINANCIAL STATEMENTS I HAVE EVER HEARD - HE SAID: " THE UNFUNDED LIABILITIES OF THE US GOVERNMENT ROSE BY $13 TRILLION ( YES, TRILLION ) IN ONE YEAR, NAMELY 2004 ". I jumped out of bed and the adrenalin kept me up for another hour; I asked myself, did I really hear correctly ( I can't quite comprehend $100 Billion, never mind $13 Trillion ) ? Well, today, I got my answer since he was appearing before a congressional committee again ( while everyone was watching Mr. G ) and HE MADE THE SAME STATEMENT. His name is Walker and he is the Comptroller General. Today, he went on to say that the total UNFUNDED liabilities of the US government is $43 Trillion which represents $350,000 for every full time worker !!! I think most reasonable accountants would say that the US government is broke and would have been declared so were it not that the US dollar was and still is, if even to an ever lesser degree with each passing day, the world's reserve currency which allowed the US to continue borrowing at an ever increasing rate from foreigners.

It is well known that we absorb roughly 80% of the rest of the world's savings. This is an unsustainable path which can only end very badly for the dollar and consequently for our economy and the US consumer.

While most pundits on the financial scene keep on talking about the Euro as the only challenger to the US dollar, I think this is a big mistake because the dollar has fallen dramatically against all major currencies, for example: the Russian ruble, the Indian rupee, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the Brazilian real ( and, of course, the Chinese yuan (renminbi) when it will be allowed to trade freely ). I think it is a mistake to assume that everyone that exists from the US dollar will buy the Euro. As an aside, I think the charts on the Canadian and Australian dollar ( which I own for some time ) look particularly good. In summary, there will be a general and continuing exodus from the US dollar into many currencies which makes much more sense than dumping it all into the Euro. Isn't diversification the key to a successful investment strategy ? In conclusion, I remain firmly bearish on the dollar regardless of what happens in the short term. This is, of course, bullish for gold and silver.

I wanted also to express my views on that cunning fox Putin , the new Grandmaster chess player on the world scene, but it will have to wait for another day since it is getting late and I promised you my views on gold. Let me just say that he is doing everything to redefine the geopolitical scene in Russia's favor and would love nothing more than to see the dollar continue its downward path and eventually lose its precious " world reserve currency " status and thereby bring huge economic pain to this country. Georgie boy, contrary to what you think, he ain't your friend.

GOLD

In view of my analysis of the dollar above and the precipice on which it hangs, I want to repeat what everyone who follows Midas already knows; i.e. the " powers that be " will do everything they can to keep gold from SURGING upward since this would confirm the stress on the financial system which is being reflected in the weaker dollar.

While on the subject of the dollar, I find it quite extraordinary that so few have paid attention to the expected $100 billion in foreign earnings by multinationals which is expected to be repatriated this year. It will be subject to a tremendous tax break of 5%+ instead of the 30% normal rate but this year only ( it would be interesting to know who threw this into some appropriation bill last year - the reason should be obvious to us all, i.e. to serve as a prop for the dollar while the underlying fundamentals continue to deteriorate at an accelerating rate - anything to postpone the inevitable and for the big players to buy some currencies on the cheap ). No way to know how much has been done already or how much will be done in total this year. OK, back to gold. I assume we all agree on the very bullish fundamentals for gold as supplied by Le Metropole Cafe. So here goes the technical analysis as I see it:

1. On Jan.6, 2005, I gave two equally probable scenarios for gold. One slightly more bearish IN THE SHORT TERM ONLY than the other. Both were bullish gold in the bigger picture as I viewed these as corrections within an ongoing bull market in gold.

2. As it turns out, #2 mentioned on Jan. 6 was the correct analysis and I will repeat it now ( I would suggest you go to the archive section and reread the whole posting I said then that the cash gold market was correcting the move from the $318.75 low of April 7, 2003 to the high of 457.63 on Dec. 2, 2004 and that the preferred targets for this correction were 424.78 and 404.38. I added that at no time should the market take out 387.89 to 389.50 to which I should have given a little bit more leeway as the markets are always fond of fading crucial numbers before making a very significant reversal. To date, the market has reached a low of $410. on Feb. 9 and is at present trading at 425.50 ( all prices basis cash ). The market has huge and significant resistance just above the recent high of 427.70 ( Feb. 15, 2005 ), i.e. between 428.00 to 434.50 and I would certainly like the market to take these out. In view of the fact that this is a " controlled " market, there is no way to know what will happen in the short term. My best guess is that the market will trade in a zig-zag fashion for some time ( I have no idea for how long ) before taking out the previous multi year high of 457.63, basis cash. As I have said before, I view the cash dollar index as a false indicator for the gold market ( since it is so heavily weighted by the euro and yen - together 71.2% of the index ) since neither of these currencies belong to areas from which the gold demand is surging. However, that seems to be what the market is trading off for now so we must abide by this until something changes. In any case, as mentioned above, I expect the dollar to resume its slide against all major currencies.

A quick note on silver: it is undergoing a normal correction after a 91 cent move in 4 days. Should March Silver drop to 6.90 to 6.97, I would be a buyer ( for those not already long ) - I am not predicting that this will happen. I have been asked if silver can go up without a proportional move up in gold, and my answer is " yes " since the " powers that be " really don't care if silver trades at $9 or $12 or anything else as it is not viewed as an indicator of financial stress the way gold is.

Wishing you successful investing

Michel de Chabert-Ostland
royalpalmtrading@adelphia.net
http://www.royalpalmtrading.com

18 February 2005

Der Goldletter geht davon aus, dass der Goldkurs nun zu laufen beginnt und wir zu Beginn eines Superzyklus stehen:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldLetter/1108738803.php

Bzgl. der Südafrikanischen Minen kommen immer mehr Bären (bearisch-gestimmte Analysten) aus dem Wald:

http://news.goldseek.com/ClifDroke/1108738802.php

Dies ist ein deutliches Zeichen von Furcht. Dabei ist der Goldkurs in der letzten Zeit angestiegen.

February 17 – Gold $426.90 up $1.70 – Silver $7.33 up 11 cents

Gold Like A Coiled Spring, Poised To Take Off Following Silver / Copper Explodes

Another quote dedicated to Chairman Greenspan for his testimony before Congress:

Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give the appearance of solidity to pure wind...George Orwell

GO GATA!!!
GO GOLD RUSH 21!!!

The desperado Gold Cartel and allies continue to show their colors. Their price-rigging is as obvious as can be, so obvious that their slip is showing. So blatant as to set up a situation in which investors all over the world will soon be willing to take them on.

Much to cover today with many reasons to believe gold and silver are gearing up to explode.

Gold rallied to $427 overnight (The AM FIX was $426.60) and then was beaten back going into the Comex opening. For three days we have seen The Gold Cartel bullion dealers beat gold back at the $426/$427 level. Would today be any different? In the end, not really, only slightly. However, one can feel the tension building in gold, like sensing it is becoming more and more a coiled spring.

Gold spent much of the day tracking the euro once the New York/Chicago trading period got underway. The dollar weakened and gold rallied. However, each time it came close to $427, or took that price point out, a bullion dealer would whack the price back below $427. In addition, early on Morgan Stanley turned a major buyer (taking some profits late) while The Gold Cartel and various bullion dealers sold every dime up.

It was back and forth in choppy action all session long with gold capped by the cabal to make sure no inflation signals might crop up to embarrass Chairman Greenspan while he was assuring Congress, Wall Street and America all was under control. It was what MIDAS suggested would happen gold market-wise at the beginning of this week and it has.

An unexpected fly in the cabal’s ointment surprised them late however and almost upset the apple cart….almost throwing their "best laid plans" out the window. March copper was firm all day and then EXPLODED near the close to finish at $1.4935, up 4.55 cents, a contract high and a new 16-year high. This spooked the gold and silver market, touching off buy stops. Gold shot up to $428.10 and silver rose to $7.40.

Frantic calls must have gone out from Gold Cartel headquarters to save the day and to carry out the day’s instructions from The Working Group on Financial Markets at all costs. Those calls did not go unanswered. The cabal forces (led by Deutsche Bank) made sure gold closed below $427 and silver was beaten back 7 cents going into the close in another disgusting display of how free markets in the US continue to go the way of the dinosaur.

The good news is the bad guys held the fort, but they are surrounded by would-be gold investors. Forces are building everywhere which are going to make The Gold Cartel’s assigned task of holding the price of gold and silver down near impossible. Our fun days are not far off.

Gold has gone sideways now for 4 four Comex trading sessions with an upward sloping bias. Some day soon we will get a gap opening and blow through $430. Maybe even gap open above that level.

One fine looking April gold chart
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/25

March copper – no signs of deflation here
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/35

Middle East concerns continue to loom:

10:15 Bush calls for Syria to remove troops from Lebanon -- Reuters
The President says he will withhold judgement on whether Syria is responsible for the killing of Premier Rafik Hariri.
* * * * *

Well, we pretty much received our proof the silver raid in the Access market on Tuesday evening was a blatant attempt by The Gold Cartel to influence the gold market and (as previously mentioned) to keep the prices of gold and silver contained while Greenspan was preaching to the Senate and House banking committees inflation was of no major concern.

The silver open interest announced today, which included that Access trading, rose 2758 contracts on the bizarre downdraft move. How we know what transpired Tuesday night was Gold Cartel inspired:

We mentioned the 4,000 contracts traded. This OI number increase is close to that amount.

*On the alarming and sudden price contraction it has to be assumed some longs were scared out, which would mean a contraction of the open interest. With some normal spec liquidation, it gets us back to the 4,000 number of new shorts.

*If the weird and dramatic price drop were a huge spec liquidating, the open interest should have dropped by 3,000 contracts, not risen almost that much.

*What crazy person would go berserk shorting silver like that in such a thin market other than to influence markets? No person in their right mind would trade such heavy volume to bury a market like that unless there was some hidden agenda. Hidden from the average bloke and the dummies in the gold/silver world who, "See No Evil, Hear No Evil, Speak No Evil," yet certainly not from the GATA ARMY camp.

The Gold Cartel is now underwater on all their silver sales in the Access market, undertaken to influence the gold price. If silver goes like I have been pounding the table on, they will have to cover with huge losses at some point. The difference between them and a normal account is these losses are meaningless compared to the kind of money they have to throw around, and in the scheme of what they are doing to keep long-term interest rates down. What do tens of millions in silver trading losses mean versus keeping the mortgage/real estate market percolating along?

March silver, gearing up to challenge $8
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/YI/35

One more plus for silver. When a dramatic play on a market, like after what the cabal did to silver, fails, it emboldens other specs to enter the fray to take them on. Whether you believe it to be a cabal raid or not, the pros know someone is TRAPPED here BIG TIME. Even better if they don’t know it is the cabal. The pro specs will be emboldened to go long at this price level, knowing a big short is sucking wind.

More good news. JUST IN. After doing nothing for weeks, the Comex silver warehouse stocks fell a sizeable 806,116 ounces to 101,223,894, a new LOW. Now we have the intriguing possibility this recent silver price run-up has been one in advance of someone going after the available silver supply on the Comex ahead of March delivery notice time. Stay tuned.

The gold open interest rose 790 contracts to 263,279. Same comment from me...room for 100,000+ new spec longs to enter the fray and take gold to new highs. Same drill with silver.

The CRB, led by surging copper, rose to 290, up 1.43, within striking distance of two decade plus highs. It did so even though oil sank 80 cents to $47.53 per barrel. The April contract made another contract high and is following through on its recent key reversal.

Commodity markets are on the move. It won’t be long before the CRB has a 300 handle.

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday? Must be Syria

Thursday, February 17, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.00 PM $4.01, with world gold at $424.60 and $426.45. Adequate, and slightly below legal import point. World gold rose almost $2 quite abruptly just before the Indian close, and also the rupee dropped over 1% on a bout of Reserve Bank intervention, which arguably distorted the afternoon reading. However, the impression remains that forces other than India are predominant in gold right now.

These forces are not Japanese . TOCOM volume was virtually unchanged at the equivalent of 17,046 Comex lots as was the active contract (up 1 yen), but this meant world gold was down$1 from the NY close. Open interest slipped the equivalent of 534 Comex contracts. (In NY on Wednesday volume was 48,601: open interest rose 790 contracts.)

In a crucially revealing passage, UBS says of the Iran explosion scare yesterday:

"…there was no sign of any panicky short covering on Comex, which is a clear indication that there are few vulnerable shorts in the gold market at the moment. Considering the large build in gross short positions to 8 February and the subsequent rally in gold it is clear that short covering was behind (or at least heavily involved in) the rally in gold and that this is now largely over."

Of course, the open interest data shows no sign of any short covering since the last CFTC cut off – open interest is up 7,995 lots or 24.4 tonnes. Short covering must have taken place, given the violence of the price rally: clearly there has been substantial fresh selling.

UBS says as much in its further comments on Wednesday’s trading:

"Although the metal rallied in line with the move in the euro, there was no sign of any panicky buying and two US banks were noted sellers into any signs of strength."

Or as Mitsui-London says of the rally in gold:

"It feels at the moment as if the selling might be a little too much…"

Since the chasm between mainstream U.S. media coverage of the Middle East and that of the rest of the world is wider than ever, it might be easy to overlook the widespread expectation that America is about to conquer another country. A good antidote is
http://antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=4861

Regardless of the merits of this policy, it must inevitably affect gold demand.

JB