Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Blow Off wird meist nur in Tops verwendet, doch was sich in den letzten Tagen insbesondere bei den GM Titel abspielt ist diesem nicht unähnlich. Bleiben wir also bei Selling Climax - vielleicht gibt es auch multiple Climaxes?


    IMHO, wir sind zwar nahe dem Boden, jedoch ist die Frage sind wir schon dort? Who cares, diese Kurse sind zum Teil zu geil um nicht daran zu knabbern. I am a Hamster!


    Eine Silberchart von Rodin - aren't we all some kind of rodents - verdeutlicht meine Ansicht: Double Bottom?


    http://www.contrarianthinker.com/index.177.jpg

    You've said it.


    Nibble away and build the beavers dams in order to tame the waterfall declines of the Ex-Bretton Woods monetary system delusions.


    Got Gold and some silver? ... As in time it will be a rat race to the bottom in all currencies -pegged to nothing - ...


    In Go(l)d we trust - has become a blasphemy - next to Haders biblical Jesus cartoons in Greece!


    Quo vadis?


    To zero value is the only answer available -...

    Artikel von Gold-eagle dazu:


    The Emperor's New Clothes
    Yesterday; was the pivotal event and turn for Precious Metals… As if on cue, the dislocations began in force. We are now on our way back to the 170 - 188 range for the HUI and 88 - 92 for the XAU. These remain only the first series of targets we hold open for this decline. There remains many lower Price Objectives, for now, these are key.


    Dollar Price Objectives for April - May:


    $82.32
    $82.92
    $83.51
    $84.17
    $85.34
    $86.54
    $87.98
    $88.86
    $89.02
    $90.27
    $92.12


    Gold Price Objectives for April - May:


    $433.05
    $429.42
    $428.73
    $427.00
    $424.40
    $420.94
    $419.10
    $414.15
    $412.45
    $403.99
    $400.77
    $396.27
    $393.04
    $385.05
    $375.88


    $414.15 and $400.77 are our initial price targets for spot gold. We will use this opportunity to purchase additional metals. It will be a phenomenal gift granted by the price rigging Federal Reserve. Embrace it, this brand of desperate fraud will be bitterly contested throughout the April - May timeframe.


    We nailed this downturn in Gold seven weeks ago and began issuing clear warnings that the Precious Metals Complex would be heading lower, with the potential for new lows coming fast and furious. Those who heeded last week's advanced warning stepped safely out of the way. Those who are holding and convinced this is another minor shakeout have a very serious surprise in store.


    Many shares did hold somewhat firm, the volumes were frankly unconvincing, as was this entire recent move back up to the 222 pivot we suggested would not hold. There will be immense volatility ahead for the Precious Metals Complex. Trade it safely and securely, we will hold no positions overnight until we are entirely comfortable we have seen THE bottom. It will be a very trying and difficult assignment, but one that will certainly catch most unaware.


    A number of the Junior Mining Equities have staunchly held their ground, but on poor volumes. The appearance of further consolidation should quickly give way to panic once the herd begins to realize they have been misled and this entire move was perfectly orchestrated to attempt break Precious Metals holders backs.


    Ideally, we would like to observe the HUI and XAU holding firm at recent lows, we doubt this will be anything more than another smoke screen.


    The Spot Metals Market closed at the pivots implied for yesterday, 427 & 6.92. These levels should give way quickly as the Dollar continues a relentless climb Steve Saville projected back in May of 2004.


    This is an incredibly dangerous Market, one that is fraught with dislocations and disaster.


    FNM, GM & AIG are merely several of the crises looming large on the minds of participants, with many more to come. The Bond Complex is in total dislocation. Please remember March is settlement for Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction.


    In addition, Japan closes its year end books in March as well.


    CONfidence will be challenged at every turn and with it the din of desperation will continue to increase within the confines of our Central Banks corridors.


    These are distinctly difficult times.


    Literally everything is in question, sans the result.


    Protect yourself and stand aside; as we are going to witness a renewed and geometric level of manipulation in the weeks ahead.


    Up is down, right is wrong. It is that simple.


    We will issue a clear and concise point of entry in the weeks ahead for a return to the Precious Metals Equities.


    For now, consider standing aside, there is much more pain to come.
    John Mackenzie


    PS: Ich hoffe seine lows treffen nicht ein !


    Regards


    XGX

    Donnerstag 24. März 2005, 12:55 Uhr


    Polizei beendet Aufruhr von Kleinanlegern vor Börse in Karatschi


    Karachi (AFP) - Spezialeinheiten der pakistanischen Polizei haben einen Aufruhr hunderter wütender Anleger vor der Börse von Karatschi beendet. Die Unruhen seien ausgebrochen, nachdem der Börsenindex KSE-100 am Mittwoch den sechsten Tag in Folge gefallen sei, sagte ein Polizeioffizier der Nachrichtenagentur AFP. Die Börsenleitung habe daraufhin den Handel von einigen Großunternehmen ausgesetzt, worauf viele Kleinanleger ihre Papiere nicht mehr abstoßen konnten. Etwa 400 enttäuschte Investoren hätten sich daraufhin vor dem Börsensitz versammelt, mit Steinen auf das Gebäude geworfen und zu randalieren begonnen. Zu Hilfe eilende Einheiten der Polizei hätten Schlimmeres verhindert. Fünf Menschen seien festgenommen worden.
    http://de.news.yahoo.com/050324/286/4gxe2.html

    John Mackenzie ist nicht ganz allein mit seiner kurzfristigen Prognose. Sollten wir weitere Kurseinbrüche bei den Goldies sehen - wie z.B. XCL, die bei hohem Volumen vielleicht schon ihren selling climax gesehen haben - ist das für mich eine weitere Gelegenheit zur Akkumulation von
    guten Projekten, die auch entsprechend finanziert sind. XCL - wird heuer 5.5 Mio US $ in das Sleeper Development stecken und ca 1 Mio $ ins Mill Creek Projekt.
    http://custom.marketwatch.com/…ink-net/mw-news.asp?guid={06E143D8-200C-49DF-A181-3FEA2401C080}


    Frohe Ostern

    On Tuesday the Federal Reserve raised its target for the Federal Funds rate -- the interest rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans -- by one quarter of a percentage point to 2.75%. The move was widely expected and the Fed indicated that it would continue to increase interest rates at a "measured" pace. The word "measured" was the focal point, since it indicates that interest rates are likely to continue to rise at one quarter of one percent for the foreseeable future. It means the Fed is not too worried about inflation yet.


    But the Fed did say in its statement on Tuesday that "...pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months..." The market is taking that to mean that the days of "measured" interest rate increases could be drawing to an end. The inference is that interest rates might well start rising more rapidly in the future.


    But if the threat of inflation is looming, and interest rates are rising, why is the gold price falling?


    The answer is simple: the gold price in US dollars is reflecting changes to the US dollar exchange rate. As I wrote on March 4 (you can read the article on my website at http://www.paulvaneeden.com in the Commentary section), gold is not the main act. The prospect of rising inflation in the US is interpreted to mean that US interest rates are going to rise as well. Since higher interest rates attract more capital (better return on investment) the supposition is that the dollar will strengthen as foreign capital flows into the US bond market. In anticipation the dollar is therefore rallying and, by extension, the gold price in US dollars is declining. It's not just the gold price that's falling in US dollar terms. The price of oil and other commodities have also declined in dollar terms as the dollar rallied this week.


    So the fact that the gold price dropped during the past few days amid all the talk of rising inflation didn't really come as a surprise. Nor do I think it's very material. What is important is that even though the Fed raised its target for the overnight rate, which impacts short-term interest rates, long-term interest rates actually declined this week. That's because money is moving into bonds.


    The prospect of higher inflation and rising interest rates does not bode well for the stock market and when stocks are perceived to be risky there is usually a flight to bonds, which are generally perceived to be safer. Higher interest rates will stymie the fragile US economy and when economic growth peters out I fail to see why foreigners would continue to invest in the US at the same rate as in the past. So even though the currency markets are optimistic about the prospect of continued foreign investment, I think it's misplaced optimism.


    I don't know how long this rally in the dollar will last. Actually, I hope it lasts a while longer. As the dollar exchange rate increases the gold price in US dollars will drop, and since most investors who invest in gold related equities are fixated by the US dollar gold price, it means that gold stocks will get slaughtered. I do hope that happens, because I have cash that I'd like to invest, and I can think of no better speculation than to buy gold related investments as the gold price falls.


    Regardless of how long the dollar rally lasts, it is still a counter-cyclical rally in a dollar bear market. The dollar will head lower soon enough and when it does, the gold price will start to rise again. As I've said in these pages so many times before, the next major downward move in the dollar -- and hence upward move in the gold price -- will not occur until the dollar falls in conjunction with rising interest rates.


    It is perhaps counter-intuitive and not widely anticipated that the dollar will fall while interest rates rise, but that's exactly how major events occur in the market: unexpectedly. For more on the topic of rising interest rates and a falling dollar I suggest you read the article "Dollar weakness and higher interest rates: how it works" on my website at http://www.paulvaneeden.com under the Commentary section.


    In the meantime I'm just going to sit back, relax, and watch what happens. Most likely this rally in the dollar will peter out rapidly and the gold price will resume its upward trend. If it doesn't, I suspect we're going to get some real bargains.


    As a side note, we got a tremendous response to the videotaped conversation between Robert Bishop, Adrian Day, Rick Rule and myself. The server hosting the video clip often became overloaded causing the video to terminate prematurely for some viewers. The webmaster in charge of the project has assured me that there are no other problems and suggests that you try again if you had problems viewing it last week, as the traffic should have subsided somewhat by now. The video is available at http://www.resourceschannel.co…ysthourpve_1showmeta.wvx.


    Paul van Eeden

    Ein kleiner auszug von den Bericht, Bunker 2 in Gold-eagle:


    The interesting fact, is that the gold-silver ratio in 1980 was 16 to 1. Today, as I write this, it is 62 to 1, and has been as high as 77 to 1, last year. The ratios are important! In the 150 years previous to 1980, the ratio was 16 to 1 or thereabouts, and was actually set as such by the Treasury's buying and coining. 16 to 1 it was. (I can't finish the Hunts this time, so let's talk about the silver they were trying to corner.) Silver became so scarce and highly priced in early 1980 and late 1979, that people were turning in their flatware, silver vases, and jewelry. I was witness to this, and bought a lot of beautiful silver candlesticks and stuff for the spot price. I was selling gold and silver in daytime, and at night, we were counting silver to be shipped to the Hunts. Wild times.


    Is there any reason to think that the same ratios will not resume eventually? If they do revert to history's ratios, this means that silver will go up close to four times, percentage wise, faster than gold. Based on today's spots, a 16 to 1 ratio would make silver about $28, to gold's $427. I doubt that silver will ever go as high as gold, but some say that gold and the Dow may cross, and I think that is a possibility. Closed Friday. Protect yourself. ;)


    And also:
    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1111708467.php

    Jim Sinclair is the PM investors freind. Take his advice to heart and all these shakeouts will work to your advantage. Read this from Jim;





    General Editorial





    Thursday, March 24, 2005, 9:08:00 PM EST


    Gold and Dollar Market Summary


    Author: Jim Sinclair






    Dear CIGA:


    The case for the price of gold at $518 to $529 is made by the following article. Inherently the case for the USDX below .8000 needs only what this article reveals as so.




    March 24, 2005
    Price Increases by Companies Start to Stick
    By EDUARDO PORTER


    In recent years, most companies were forced to absorb the higher costs of basic expenses like employee health care, raw materials and energy, focusing instead on squeezing more efficiencies from their workers and machines.


    But now, from airlines to manufacturers of advanced plastics, many businesses are overcoming their fears of losing customers and are starting to pass on cost increases.


    After two months of virtually no inflation, the Labor Department reported yesterday that the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.4 percent in February, the fastest pace since October.


    Surging oil prices contributed substantially to the increase last month. But other prices also rose broadly, pushing the core Consumer Price Index - a less volatile measure that excludes food and energy - up by 0.3 percent, the sharpest increase since September.


    The report came a day after the Federal Reserve, in raising interest rates for the seventh time in less than a year, expressed greater concern about the risk of higher inflation, citing evidence that some businesses are gaining increased "pricing power" in the marketplace.


    Including energy and food costs, average prices are now 3 percent above their level a year earlier. Some consumer prices have risen even faster.


    More..


    The top callers in the Gold Community are going wild today declaring their genius and in that ego-driven madness extending gold’s decline. The emails are falling as if from above declaring how correct they are and how despicable gold and silver are.


    Their ill selected words would upset even the insurance investors as they pan the metals and sing the merits of the US dollar. No basis is claimed other than their arcane knowledge of lines, squiggles and a weak Jupiter.


    Yet these sharpies always hang on to your purse strings by putting out the carrot that of course they are long term bulls. The implication is clear. You need only to worship them (that means sending money) and they will take you safely and profitably to the promised land of milk and honey.


    Anyone following their imploring words and selling everything gold and silver will come to realize that they have followed false prophets who are out only to make a profit.


    The top callers do not trade gold or silver or the US dollar for one good reason. They haven’t enough faith in their pronouncements. They know that they do not know. I know many of them and they are failed traders who tell you differently as skillful word smiths.


    You buy this type of weakness in the metals and sell the strength never exceeding 1/3 of your position. Let the nuts flail all over the place as they are primarily financial accidents looking for a place to happen.


    Gold is going to $518 and then to $529 and the above article is the last round peg in the round hole. There will be constant drama but in the end gold will be above $1650. ?(


    The greatest money will be made in the safest way and by following the simple approach: Buy weakness, sell strength, never exceed 1/3 of your position, and stay away from margin.


    There is no need to hurry. You probably will have a few thousand chances before this is all over.
    __________________
    Fed Chairman Paul Volcker once said: "Until there are put in place policies with a historical ability to reverse the growing deficits in the US budget, US Trade and therefore the US Current Account the value of the US dollar must continue to decline." :]

    Golden Escape Pods


    Edgar J. Steele


    What is gold really worth today? While the accurate answer simply is whatever someone will pay for it, there are historical measures which indicate that it is seriously undervalued. Could it stay that way? Only if the central bankers are correct in what they tell you about gold and also are correct that economic depression and monetary hyperinflation are things of the past. Even so, the gold market will require ongoing rigging, because there are a great many people around the world who quite simply don't believe the central bankers - and with good reason.


    I'm going to go through a quick analysis of the value of gold, one of many ways in which a value can be derived, I might add. It almost certainly will require you to read through it a few times to get the drift, because it is not the point of this article to be an exhaustive treatise on gold or investing, after all. Rather, I wish only to construct an argument for gold being used as a defense against the economic war being waged against us.


    By 1945, 63,570 tons of gold had been discovered and mined, worldwide. In 2003, 144,092 tons existed, a 127% increase. Very little gold actually is used industrially or otherwise (as in dental work), unlike so many other precious metals, so most of the gold ever discovered still exists and is sitting in someone's vault.


    In 1945, 68% of all gold was in central bank vaults. In 2003, 12% of all gold was in Central Bank vaults.
    The total outstanding value of gold outside bank vaults in 2003 was about 100 times the total outstanding value of gold outside bank vaults in 1945.


    In 1945, the total money in circulation throughout the world was about $300 billion. In 2003, the total money in circulation throughout the world was about $30 trillion, a one-hundredfold increase, which itself suggests a proper price for gold in the area of $3,500 per ounce (100 x $35).


    Expressed as a pro-rata portion of the total money in circulation in 1945, each ounce of gold then in existence accounted for $147.48. Expressed as a pro-rata portion of the total money in circulation in 2003, each and every ounce of gold then in existence accounted for $6,506.26.


    Some would call the analysis done at this point and claim that gold is worth between $3,500 and $6,506 per ounce. I am not one of those, some of whom use alternate analyses to derive values of up to $20,000 per ounce.


    By the way, some actually suggest that the correct analysis is to divide the total money supply by the number of ounces of gold in central bank vaults, since that represents the extent to which outstanding money is "backed" by gold. In that case, the per-ounce value of gold turns out to be an incredible $54,218.94. However, this neglects to calculate a similar figure for each country with money outstanding, then weight each result appropriately. Some countries, such as America, reportedly have almost no gold left in central bank vaults, though none will allow inspections.


    America's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 1945 was 18. The CPI in 2003 was 183, representing a 10X increase.


    America's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 9X from 1945 to 2003, after adjustment for inflation (CPI).


    The world's money supply, expressed in dollars, increased 100X from 1945 to 2003. America's broadest definition of money, M3, increased by about 36X during the same period.


    Note that the money supply increased significantly faster than did either GDP or the CPI or, for that matter, America's population, which has doubled.


    The Dow increased by 10X during the same period, too.


    While American post-WWII productivity increased by about 3X on a per-capita basis, the money supply (M3) increased beyond productivity by a factor of ten, which squares with the CPI increase. When I was a child, those purple first-class postage stamps cost 3 cents, but today they are more than ten times that amount, an external validation of our statistical analysis. I recall today's $1 ice cream cones costing but a nickel a scoop.


    In other words, our money has been robbed of 90% of its value in the last fifty years by excessive expansions of the money supply, with most of the loss taking place in just the last 30 years. Meanwhile, the per-capita supply of gold actually has declined by about 40%. What's the problem, you might ask - after all, gold went up from $35 to $330 in the same time period, approximately the amount of inflation. Here's the problem: at both points, the price of gold was being artificially constrained by the central bank, both directly and through its surrogate, the American government.


    The real question is what happens to the price of gold if the bank loses control of it and, particularly, if the dollar swoons significantly, as seems to be occurring at the time of this writing.

    Very good essay -


    The problem is it doesn't tell you anything about timing.


    ... Nun sind wir alle mehr oder weniger überzeugt, dass wir in einem sekulären Bull Markt für Gold sind. OK, auch ich. Jedoch bisher ist der Bulle nur vis a vis dem US Dollar zu sehen - und auch hier hat Gold kaum Schritt gehalten, zumindest nicht in der $:€ Relation.


    Der Gold Bulle, und ich bezweifle nicht dass wir einen haben ... werden, wird erst dann richtig schnauben wenn wir seine Potenz vs allen Währungen sehen.
    Es wird der US Hegemonie als Resrve Währung weder gelingen durch einseitige Abwertung ihre div. Defizite in Ordnung zu bringen, noch kann sich der Rest der Welt dies ewig erlauben. Die USA benötigt schon jetzt 80% der globalen Ersparnisse - laut Mises das einzige Kapital um neue Produktion zu schaffen.
    Mit weiteren Schulden um den Konsumenten der "last Resort" noch weiter zu füttern untergräbt man auch seine eigene Stellung.


    Niemand weiss, wann dieses Spiel zu Ende geht - lange kann es IMHO nicht mehr gutgehen. GM, AIG, GE, JPM, Citi & Co. haben ihre eigenen Probleme bereits verdeutlicht. Derivativ Idiotien sind bereits an der Schwelle von Nirvana - Notional Values of this sector are now probably 12 times world gdp; And where are the counterparties in this Trillion $ scheme? Right, there are none!!! Not even the B(L)S - ESF is anywhere close to manage the derivative markets.


    International sind augenscheinlich DB und UBS in ähnliche Probleme verwickelt. West Points deep storage gold of 1.700 tons is probably originally owned by the BuBa. Inwieweit ist dieses Gold korrumpiert?


    Wie auch immer ... ich denke, dass wir Gold Bugs noch eine heftige Bewegung nach unten sehen werden - Kaufgelegenheit in Bullion und Minen -; Kommt Mai sei dabei!


    Frohe Ostern -

    Zitat

    Original von frr
    Very good essay - von Frrr


    The problem is it doesn't tell you anything about timing.
    Niemand weiss, wann dieses Spiel zu Ende geht -
    Wie auch immer ... ich denke, dass wir Gold Bugs noch eine heftige Bewegung nach unten sehen werden - Kaufgelegenheit in Bullion und Minen -; Kommt Mai sei dabei!


    Frohe Ostern -



    Vielleicht nehmen wir dann astrologie in kenntniss und wir haben das timing according to spica from 12 april- 27 juli. ?(
    and we have some highs over 450 ? :P


    Danke Frrr ;)


    Happy golden egg shopping, in may at the latest.
    Some say, sell in may and stay away ! ?(


    The contrarian investor, against all odds...


    Eldorado

    March 25 – Gold $425.90 up $1.90 – Silver $6.92 up 2 cents


    Gold Rush 21 Coming Along Nicely; Sellout Expected


    "There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root." --Henry David Thoreau


    With The Gold Cartel off for Good Friday, gold came right back in overseas trading. While these rallies often are rebuked when the cabal checks back in for work, this modest, quick recovery is another indication the worst is over. :D The incredible pace of the liquidation suggests the cabal does not want to be too short at these levels. Most likely the black box/hedge fund dumping of longs was also fueled by the commodity price plunge in general. The CRB fell around 16 points in only a week:

    From: GATAComm@a...
    Subject: Germany's Silberinfo interviews GATA's officers



    ADVERTISEMENT



    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:


    Our friends at the Silberinfo Internet site in Germany
    have just posted interviews with GATA Chairman Bill
    Murphy and your secretary/treasurer.


    The German versions can be found here:


    http://silberinfo.w3concepts.net/cms/front_content.php?
    client=1&lang=1&idcat=47&idart=1208


    The English versions can be found here:


    http://silberinfo.w3concepts.net/cms/front_content.php?
    client=1&lang=1&idcat=47&idart=1207


    CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
    Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc


    Quelle: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2954

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A