Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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Cluff gets ready to float his gold mining interests on Aim

Algy Cluff, the mining entrepreneur and former proprietor of The Spectator magazine, is poised to float his gold company on the Alternative Investment Market.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/mon…ey/2004/03/14/ixcity.html

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http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/040315…ts_precious_europe_2.html

Reuters
UPDATE - Gold firm in Europe as market clings to euro

Monday March 15, 11:01 am ET

LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Gold held firm in Europe on Monday in fairly quiet activity, influenced by a broadly firmer euro against the dollar, dealers said.

The dollar trimmed losses against the euro (EUR=) but dropped around one percent against the Swiss franc as indications al Qaeda might have planted last week's deadly bombs in Madrid encouraged a flight to safe-haven investments.

Dealers said bullion was not directly involved in safe-haven buying, with dollar moves seen as paramount. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for holders of other currencies like the euro and the yen.

"In the past we've had an association with safe-haven buying, but not this time. We're just tracking the dollar, there's no fund interest and very little producer interest," Peter Hillyard, head of European metal sales at ANZ bank, said.

Spot gold (XAU=) was at $397.20/397.70 an ounce by 1552 GMT versus $394.90/395.60 in New York late on Friday.

"Going into this week, we expect the gold price to stay in a $395.00-406.00 range with the dollar remaining the major trigger," Alexander Zumpfe (Das ist der Kollege vom Wolfgang) of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said in a daily report. Analysts said gold's behaviour indicated that geo-political tension was fading as a fundamental.

"The move higher...is in reaction to the firming euro and this is a clear demonstration that currencies and not risk aversion continue to be the main driver of the gold market in the short term," UBS Investment Bank metals analyst John Reade said in a daily report.

Silver (XAG=) followed gold's gains on Monday, moving up to $7.11/7.13 from $7.03/7.06 in New York on Friday. Having hit a fresh six-year high last week at $7.25, the market was due a correction lower due to weak fundamentals.

Silver speculators had raised their exposure to the metal substantially, according to Commitments of Traders data released last week.

Dealers said funds were nearing the limit of their buying, which added to perceptions, that the metal's bull run was almost finished.

The net speculative long position in COMEX silver rose to 58,686 contracts as of March 9 from 54,304 contracts on March 2. Open interest rose to 116,299 from 113,485 on March 2.

Platinum (XPT=) was firm at $908.00/913.00, versus $902/907 in New York. Palladium (XPD=) extended gains, with the market quoted at $277.00/282.00 against $271.50/277.50 in New York. It hit a 16-month high of $280 earlier. Dealers said palladium was on track to reach a technical target of $300 on speculative interest.

Ein weiterer Bericht zur Harmony Gold Übernahme der Abelle Ltd

Bin mal gespannt wie sich morgen der Preis von Abelle entwickelt. Könnte für eine Überraschung gut sein?

Wie sich der Kurs der Abelle Ltd. bis anhin entwickelt hat, könnt Ihr am Chart ablesen. Dass ich da keine besondere Freude an der Übernahme durch Harmony habe, scheint dann vielleicht etwas verständlicher.

Der Harmony Gold wird die Übernahme der Abelle zukünftig sicherlich mehr Profit bringen als mir. Dass ich gleichzeitig auch Harmony Gold Aktionär bin, kann da aber trotzdem nur sehr wenig trösten.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://trinity.mips1.net/MGGol…6E58003BE57F?OpenDocument

Harmony bids for Abelle minorities

By: Peter Gonnella


Posted: 2004/03/15 Mo 12:00 | © Mineweb 1997-2004


PERTH (minewebaustralia.com) – Harmony Gold [JSE:HAR] today made a $92 million (R620 million) offer to buy the shares it did not already own in Abelle, its 83 percent owned Australian gold subsidiary.
The company this afternoon made a A$2 a share offer for Abelle, confirming earlier Mineweb speculation that it intended taking our Abelle minorities. a cash offer to buy the remaining shares in its 83.2 percent-owned Australasian gold mining subsidiary, Abelle [ASX:ABX].

The offer had been flagged earlier in the day when Abelle requested a trading halt for its securities.

The clean-up move comes at a time Harmony and Abelle had been advancing discussions in relation to the possible debt financing of the planned A$177 million development of the Hidden Valley project in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and as the economic and technical robustness of Abelle’s PNG assets appears to have been significantly improved.

It also comes a little over 12 months since Harmony made a friendly takeover bid for Abelle (see related article in side bar). In the wash-up last year Harmony opted not to pursue the 90 percent shareholding threshold that would have triggered compulsory acquisition and delisting because it perhaps would have meant not being able to retain the incumbent management team – which still spoke for a key portion (about 3.5 percent) of the minority Abelle equity. Prior to today’s bid, Harmony had invested about A$160 million to acquire its 83 percent Abelle interest and about 67 percent Abelle options.

Abelle recently released updated operating and financial parameters for Hidden Valley, which is being designed to produce an average of 300,000 ounces of gold and 4.5 million ounces of silver per annum over the estimated (phase one) mine life of about six-and-a-half years commencing in late calendar 2005 following an anticipated 18-month construction period. Proved and probable reserves for phase one stood at 21.4 million tonnes grading 3.0g/t gold and 43g/t silver for a contained 2.04Moz of gold and 29.5Moz of silver.

The amended base-case scenario for the proposed multi-processing, multi-open pit Hidden Valley operation assumes gold and silver prices of A$550 per ounce (at press time around A$542/oz) and A$8/oz (currently A$9.70/oz) respectively and an Aussie/US exchange rate of US$0.75 (US$0.734). Consequently, Abelle is projecting a total operating surplus from Hidden Valley of A$424 million, total cash surplus of A$224 million, an after-tax IRR of 29 percent, an NPV of A$141 million and a whirlwind “simple” capital payback of only three years. In addition, cash costs (after silver credits) and total production costs (including allowances for royalties and taxation) are forecast to average A$263/oz and A$431/oz respectively.

Last month it advised that Harmony had gone over the Hidden Valley bankable feasibility study numbers and that they had fitted the South African-based gold giant’s “investment criteria”.

Meantime, positive results from the recently completed diamond drilling program at Abelle’s other main PNG gold project, Wafi, have been converted into a 35 percent increase in the identified mineral resource hosted there to an indicated and inferred 72Mt at 2.72g/t (at a 1.0g/t cut-off) for an insitu 6.3Moz. First-stage development options were being examined, Abelle reported.

Trading in Abelle shares was halted by the company today and should resume tomorrow. They were last at A$1.80.

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Asia Debt Weapon Pointed at United States

A default by the US government is still unthinkable, but not so a unilateral change in the rules of international finance - akin to Richard Nixon's halt to the convertibility of dollars into gold in 1971, or Franklin D. Roosevelt's devaluation and repudiation of gold-denominated contracts. . . . (More)

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Bei W:O ist er, und seine Homepage tabu, und verpönt. Die Linken hassen ihn, die Rechten hassen ihn auch. Die Demokraten warnen vor ihm. Die Republikaner schneiden ihn. Die Mainstream Presse ignoriert ihn. Die meisten Leute kennen nicht einmal seinen Namen. Zu meinen Favoriten gehört er auch nicht.

Trotzdem, manchmal trift er den Nagel auf den Kopf.

http://www.larouchepub.com/oth…/3111financ_dynamite.html

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http://www.optionsscheinecheck…etype=5&AnalysenID=395951

15.03.2004

Harmony Gold-Call Top-Chance

Optionsschein Trader

Für die Anlageexperten vom "Optionsschein Trader" bietet der Call (ISIN DE0007702110/ WKN 770211) der Commerzbank auf die Aktie von Harmony Gold (ISIN US4132163001/ WKN 864439) derzeit eine Top-Chance.

Nach Ansicht der Experten dürfte das Unternehmen, stellvertretend für die ganze Rohstoffbranche, von der erwarteten Hausse deutlich profitieren. Zwar habe das Unternehmen Zahlen gemeldet, die unter den Analystenschätzungen gelegen hätten. Doch bleibe die Halbjahresdividende bei 0,40 ZAR, was zeige, dass der Konzern über einen gesunden Cashflow verfüge.

Doch mittlerweile dürften alle negativen Impulse bereits im Kurs eskomptiert sein, so dass der Titel vor allem für ein Longplay interessant sei. Hinzu komme der Verkauf der Highland Gold Mining Beteiligung, welcher dem Goldproduzenten einen Buchgewinn von 510 Mio. ZAF beschert habe. Außerdem erwarte man in den kommenden Monaten einen anziehenden Goldpreis, wovon Harmony Gold profitieren dürfte.

Vor diesem Hintergrund halten die Wertpapierexperten vom "Optionsschein Trader" den Call der Commerzbank auf die Aktie von Harmony Gold für ein aussichtsreiches Investment. Das Gewinnpotential bis Mitte Mai sehe man bei 50%.

WKN 770211
OS-Typ Amerik. Call
Emittent Commerzbank
Underlying Harmony Gold
Basispreis 20,00 USD
Kurs Underlying 14,87 USD
Bezugsverhältnis 10/1
Laufzeit 18.06.04
Aufgeld in % 36,87
Omega 7,76
Preis OS 0,033 Euro

Weitere Analysen zur ISIN US4132163001

27.01.2004 Harmony Gold Mining "buy" Merrill Lynch
14.01.2004 Harmony Gold Verdopplungspotenzial Der Aktionär
08.12.2003 Harmony Gold über 18 USD kaufen Chartanalyst/Optionsbrief

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http://de.biz.yahoo.com/040315/71/3xqez.html

Reuters

Gold in Europa kaum verändert

Montag 15. März 2004, 18:26 Uhr

London, 12. Mär (Reuters) - Gold hat am Montag in einem ruhigen europäischen Handel kaum verändert notiert. Vor allem der zum Euro etwas nachgebende Dollar verlieh dem Edelmetall eine Stütze. Die von den Anschlägen im Madrid ausgehende allgemeine Unsicherheit, die etwa bei den Aktien spürbra wurde, wirkte sich im Goldhandel kaum aus.
"Früher (bei Krisen) dachten die Marktteilnehmer immer erst an "sichere Häfen" wie etwa Gold. Dieses Mal war das nicht der Fall," sagte ein Händler. Nun spiele die Währungsentwicklung im Goldmarkt eine grössere Rolle als politische Unsicherheiten.

Gold wurde in Europa gegen Handelsende zu 398,50/399,00 Dollar je Feinunze gehandelt nach 398,60/399,30 am Freitagabend. Das Nachmittagsfixing in London erfolgte bei 398,10 Dollar nach 399 Dollar am Vormittag.

Silber notierte leicht fester auf 7,11/7,14 Dollar nach 6,79/7,00 Dollar am Freitagabend.

Eine Schweizer Grossbank nannte den Kilopreis des Goldes mit 16.283/16.533 (Freitagabend 16.250/16.500) sfr.

pma/ajs

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http://www.de.tradesignal.com/…l/analyse.asp&id=5883

Der große GOLD Bulle bleibt, was er ist ... STARK!

von Harald Weygand, Godmode-Trader.de , BörseGo GmbH,

15. März 2004 05:01

[B]Aktueller langfristiger Monatschart (log) seit 1975 (1 Kerze = 1 Monat) als Orientierungsdarstellung:

- 1999 bis 2001 konnte sich eine riesige breitbasige Doppelbodenformation mit maßgeblicher BUY Triggerlinie bei 325 $ ausbilden.

- Seit Februar 2001 befindet sich GOLD in einer übergeordneten Aufwärtsbewegung.

- Zu Beginn dieses Jahres ist die Aufwärtsbewegung auf eine wichtige Widerstandszone bei 405-415 $ aufgetroffen. Dieser Widerstand rührt aus dem Zeitraum August 1993 bis März 1996 her. Das 405-415er Niveau stellte die maßgebliche BUY Triggerlinie eines mehrjährigen steigenden bullishen Dreieck, in der Spitze eines gigantischen mehr als 10jährigen symmetrischen Dreieck dar. Das bullishe Dreiecke entwickelte sich damals zu charttechnischen Bullenfalle. GOLD brach 1996 und 1997 aus dem bullishen Dreieck regelwidrig und anschließend auch aus dem symmetrischen Dreieck nach unten.

- Unser mehrfach genanntes großes übergeordnetes Mindest-Kursziel für GOLD liegt bei 480 $. Es läßt sich über mehrere charttechnische Kurszielermittlungsverfahren sondieren.

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Aktueller Wochenchart (log) seit 19.08.2001 (1 Kerze = 1 Woche):

- GOLD befindet sich im Rahmen der übergeordneten AUfwärtsbewegung in einer 2-3monatigen Korrekturphase. Das Verlaufsmuster imponiert durch eine bullishe Charakteristik.

- Bei 388-390 $ liegt eine zentrale charttechnische Kreuzunterstützung.

- Wird die 388-390 $ auf Wochenschluß unterschritten, ist dies bearish zu werten. Es würde eine weitere Ausdehnung der Korrektur maximal bis auf 360 $ ankündigen

- Unterhalb der 388-390er Kreuzunterstützung liegen weitere sehr wichtige Unterstützungsmarken bei 380 und bei 384 $. Außerdem bei 374,4 und bei 366,25 $.

- Beachten Sie unsere charttechnischen Kommentierungen der GOLD Kursentwicklung in unseren nahezu täglich veröffentlichten GodmodeTrader Edelmetall Reports. Der derzeitige Stand der Dinge ist jener: Steigt GOLD über 408-412 $, wäre dies identisch mit einem Startschuß der nächsten Ralleywelle bis auf 430 $. Die 430 $ muß anschließend erfolgreich überwunden werden, damit das große 480er Ziel in Reichweite kommt.

http://www.godmode-trader.de

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Chart erstellt mit Tradesignal

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http://www.de.tradesignal.com/…l/analyse.asp&id=5884

Goldindex - Kleiner Bär zum Abschuß freigegeben ...

von Harald Weygand, Godmode-Trader.de , BörseGo GmbH,

15. März 2004 05:01

Gold & Silver Index ($XAU): 93,53 Punkte

Aktueller Wochenchart (log) seit dem 20.01.2002 (1 Kerze = 1 Woche).

- Dezember 2003 bis Januar 2004 Ausbildung einer mehrwöchigen Doppeltop Wendeformation mit SELL Trigger bei 101,45 Punkten. Durch das Unterschreiten der 101,45 wurde die Wendeformation ausgelöst und damit Konsolidierungsziele von bis zu 90 Punkten.

- Übergeordnete Aufwärtsbewegung seit 2001 ist nach wie vor intakt.

- 92,0-93,8 liegt ein starkes charttechnisches Supportcluster.

- Seit dem 15.01.04 konsolidiert der Index in Form eines Diamanten. Die 101,45er SELL Triggerlinie wird mehrfach attackiert. Der Index hat bisher noch keine "Lust" die Doppeltopformation regelkonform bis in den 90er Bereich aufzulösen.

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Aktueller Tageschart (log) seit dem 06.11.2003 (1 Kerze = 1 Tag).

- Seit dem 15.01.04 ist der Index eingekeilt zwischen dem Unterstützungsband bei 92,0-96,11 und der SELL Triggerlinie bei 101,45.

- Gelingt auf Wochenschlußkurs der Anstieg über 102,6 Punkte, dürfte die nächste Aufwärtsbewegung starten; und zwar in Richtung 114, 130 und übergeordnet bis auf 150 Punkte.

- Kursverluste unter 93,8 sind negativ zu werten und kündigen eine zähe Fortsetzung der laufenden Korrektur an.

- Eine sehr starkes charttechnisches Supportcluster liegt bei 86,0 - 89,11 Punkten.

http://www.godmode-trader.de

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Charts erstellt mit Tradesignal

Die bösen Spekulanten!

Solche Kommentare zum Gold, und Silber Geschehen sind in die Kategorie "Strotzt nur so vor Falschinformationen" einzureihen.

Entweder Dieter Claasen hat keine Ahnung wovon er schreibt, oder er schreibt diesen Mist wieder besseren Wissens.

Gruss

Thaiguru

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http://www.diepresse.com/Artikel.aspx?id=410600

Spekulanten:

Lieber Silber als Gold

Von unserem Korrespondenten DIETER CLAASSEN (Die Presse)

15.03.2004

Während aus dem Goldpreis derzeit die Luft heraußen ist, treiben Anleger den Preis für Silber auf ein 6-Jahres-Hoch.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.diepresse.com/upload/20040314/15-gold.jpg]Bei Gold ist die Luft draussen | (c) Bloomberg

London. Die Entscheidung des US-Kamera- und Filmriesen Kodak, sich künftig verstärkt auf die Digitalfotografie auszurichten, hätte zu einem anderen Zeitpunkt den Preis für Silber, unentbehrlicher Bestandteil für die Entwicklung von Filmen, sicherlich abstürzen lassen. Dieses Mal ist es anders, obwohl die Fotobranche noch immer für gut ein Viertel des Jahresverbrauchs des Metalls steht, das als Nebenprodukt bei der Förderung von Blei und Zink sowie Gold und Kupfer anfällt.

Der Grund: Zahlreiche Spekulanten haben dem derzeit bei 400 Dollar je Unze dümpelnden Gold den Rücken gekehrt und engagieren sich verstärkt am Silbermarkt. Mit 7,19 Dollar je Unze ist dessen Preis seit Jahresbeginn um 20 Prozent und innerhalb eines Jahres um gar 60 Prozent in die Höhe geschnellt.

Die auf einen steigenden Preis setzenden Terminkontrakte an der New Yorker Warenbörse, Comex, haben bereits das Volumen einer gesamten Jahresförderung des Metalls erreicht. Im Februar 1998 hatte der Silberpreis zum letzten Mal die Marke von sieben Dollar je Unze übersprungen. Damals überraschte der US-Investor Warren Buffet die Welt mit der Nachricht, er habe 129,7 Mill. Unzen Silber aufgekauft und damit ein Fünftel des weltweiten Angebots.

John Reade, Edelmetallspezialist der UBS in London, hält den Preisanstieg von fast 20 Prozent seit Jahresbeginn angesichts des Verhältnis zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage nicht für gerechtfertigt.

"Viele Anleger haben wohl die negativen Auswirkungen der Digitalfotografie auf den Silberabsatz überschätzt", meint hingegen Kamal Naqvi von Barclays Capital. Denn: Eine wachsende Zahl von Digitalaufnahmen würde auf Spezialpapier ausgedruckt, das wiederum Silber enthält.

zeitgenosse

Du solltest etwas mehr überlegen, und meinen Kommentar zum Link richtig lesen, bevor Du eine solche Unterstellungen verbreitest.

Oder liegt Dein Problem ganz wo anders?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

PULLING OUT THE RUG

by Kurt Richebächer

Apparently, the consensus economists are still convinced that the growth acceleration in the second half of 2003, and above all a sharp rise in profits, have laid the foundation for sustainable growth. In particular, sustainable growth with sufficient creation of employment.

We disagree.

But we must admit that our own assessment is prejudiced by the postulate of the Austrian school, that "the thing which is needed to secure healthy economic growth is the most speedy and complete return both of demand and production to its sustainable long-term pattern, as determined by voluntary consumer saving and spending."

Friedrich Hayek said in 1931: "If the proportion as determined by the voluntary decisions of individuals is distorted by the creation of artificial demand, it must mean that part of the available resources is again led into the wrong direction and a definite and lasting adjustment is again postponed. And even if the absorption of the unemployed resources were to be quickened in this way, it would only mean that the seed would already be sown for new disturbances and new crises."

We think this precisely describes what has been happening and continues to happen in the United States. The Greenspan Fed has discovered a new, amazingly easy and quick way to create higher consumer spending virtually from thin air - by way of so-called wealth creation through asset bubbles. It began with the stock market bubble, to be followed by bubbles in bonds, house prices and mortgage refinancing.

Measured by real GDP growth, it seems a successful policy. But measured by employment and income growth, it is an outright disaster. The so-called "wealth effects" are not for real, neither for the economy as a whole nor for the individual asset owners. The reality in the long run is only the horrendous mountain of debts that consumers, corporations and financial institutions have piled up.

Given the general euphoria about the U.S. economy and its recovery, there appears to be a general apprehension in the markets that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates in the foreseeable future. The Fed is clearly anxious to dispel any such fears - and this, in our view, is for a compelling reason. U.S. economic and financial stability have become inexorably dependent on the existence of a steep yield curve allowing and fostering unlimited carry trade in long-term bonds. Any major rise at its short or long end would shatter this artificial stability and send the economy and financial system crashing.

Considering all the imbalances impairing U.S. economic growth, we are unable to see the sustained, strong recovery. A closer look at the recent economic data [and last Friday's jobs report] confirms this skepticism. Possibly, if not probably, economic growth has already peaked. For us, the question rather is when general disappointment will gain the upper hand.

That, of course, is sure to soothe the bond market, allowing moreover the Fed to maintain low interest rates. But it will conjure up another, even greater risk at the currency front. It will pull the rug out from under the dollar.

In our view, the U.S. trade deficit is big enough to cause a true tailspin of the dollar against all currencies. So far, two things have prevented this threatening dollar collapse: the gargantuan dollar purchases by Asian central banks and the still rather positive perception around the world of the U.S. economy. In our view, few people realize its true weakness and vulnerability.

There is widespread hope that the falling dollar will go a long way to lower the U.S. trade deficit. It takes a lot of wishful thinking to believe that. Its persistent growth has various reasons. One of them is that the gap between exports and imports has simply become too big to be reversible. Last year, exports amounted to $1,018.6 billion and imports to $1,507.9 billion. Just to prevent a further rise of the deficit, exports would have to rise 50% faster than imports.

Principally, the trade flows of a country are exposed to three major influences: first, relative prices and the exchange rate; second, relative demand conditions; and third, relative supply conditions.

Empirical experience suggests that exchange rate changes by themselves have very little effect on trade flows. One obvious reason is that Asian as well as European exporters readily adjust their prices to maintain their market shares.

For years, the United States has been top in the world with its domestic demand growth propelled by the loosest monetary policy in the world. For sure, lacking demand growth in the rest of the world has played a role in boosting the U.S. trade deficit. Yet what matters most for the trade balance is not U.S. growth in relation to other countries, but U.S. demand growth in relation to U.S. capacity and capital-stock growth. In essence, such a deficit indicates an equivalent excess of domestic spending over domestic output.

More precisely, the U.S. trade deficit reflects gross overspending on consumption on the demand side and a grossly unbalanced investment structure on the supply side. There was gross underinvestment in manufacturing versus gross overinvestment in retail, finance and high-tech.

Our assumption is that there is no intention or will on the American side to correct any of these maladjustments. Given their enormous size, it is a Herculean task, too Herculean, in fact, to be seriously addressed.

Principally, American policymakers and economists take only two economic problems seriously: high rates of inflation; and, in particular, slow growth and rising unemployment. They could not care less about the dollar. The low inflation rate is the excuse for more of the same extreme monetary looseness.

There is quite a variety of accidents waiting to happen in the markets, but the most predictable and biggest risk is a dollar crisis. In addition to the gargantuan trade deficit, looming in the background are existing foreign holdings of dollar assets in the amount of $9 trillion.

As explained, the tremendous vulnerability of the U.S. bond market due to its underlying heavy leveraging prohibits any defense of the dollar through tightening.

Instead, the plunging dollar will pull the rug out from under the bond and the stock markets.

Regards,

Kurt Richebächer

for The Daily Reckoning

Editor's note: Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker once said: "Sometimes I think that the job of central bankers is to prove Kurt Richebächer wrong." A regular contributor to The Wall Street Journal, Strategic Investment and several other respected financial publications, Dr. Richebächer's insightful analysis stems from the Austrian School of economics. France's Le Figaro magazine has done a feature story on him as "the man who predicted the Asian crisis."

This essay was adapted from an article in the March edition of:

The Richebächer Letter

http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/RCH/trap311/

As the good doctor notes above, not only is a continued dollar decline inevitable...it is indefensible by the U.S. powers that be. If you haven't already hedged your portfolio against the dollar's devaluation, you should do so today:

Seven Ways To Sell The Dollar

http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/400SDRSS/ADetailedLook/

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http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

March 15 - Gold $399.30 up $4.30 - Silver $7.11 up 8 cents

Is The Perfect Storm Right Around The Corner?

Zitat

In the confrontation between
the stream and the rock,
the stream always wins -
not through strength but by perseverance...H. Jackson Brown

Another aggravating day, one which unfortunately proves how right GATA has been for more than five years. Only the dimwits in gold industry fail to see how manipulated the gold price is and has been. The gold industry leaders are beyond contempt for their failure to address the most important issue concerning their own product.

Gold came in $3 to $4 higher. The dollar was mixed with the euro about 30 points up as Comex opened. The set up for gold to move sharply higher could not have been better. Commodity markets were surging and European financial markets were weakish and upset over the win by the Socialists in Spain, considering it a repudiation of the United States for dragging Spain into the Iraq War.

This repudiation by the Spanish citizens is very serious, the ramifications of which are not going to disappear over night. Ninety percent of the Spanish were against backing the US, but Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar did so any way. There was scoffing in the America about whether we felt safer in this country after the invasion of Iraq and with Saddam Hussein out of the way. Those who said, "NO" like Presidential candidate Dean were ridiculed. Well, one thing for sure, the Spanish don’t feel safer today than they did a year ago. That is now an expressed fact following their stunning election results.

Unfortunately the realization is growing that liberating Iraq and fighting terrorism are two different animals. If anything, it seems going into Iraq may have taken away resources from destroying the heinous al-Qaeda. What has so many people becoming increasingly mad at the US is we didn’t have to go in when we did. We could have waited for the UN to do their thing and gone in with the support of many other countries. Soon, we will not even have Spain behind us. And, of course, the WMD issue, the urgency one given to invade so quickly, turned out to be a red herring as did other of the neo-con reasons to invade Iraq. What a mess!

There is a reason I am focusing on the Iraq/Spanish issue. The savvy Jim Puplava of http://www.financialsense.com has written for some time about "The Perfect Storm." You can go to his site to read the voluminous amount of material he has written on this subject the past couple of years. My take on this line of thinking will be exceedingly simplistic by concentrating on the notion we might just be there. The perfect financial market story might be right around the corner.

Why:

*What al-Qaeda did in Spain is terrifying and likely to pick up steam in the months ahead. This can only rattle the world financial markets. Greed is likely to turn to fear and investors are likely to run for the hills by exiting stock markets.

*The US/Fed measures to stimulate the economy have about run their course and still the job picture is not improving. Meanwhile the trade and US budget deficits are horrendous and not improving either. The US/Fed is running out of options to correct the problems without a substantial economic contraction.

*Not only are US government debt levels high, so are those of various states and the US consumer. An ominous sign of the times:

One in 73 US households declared bankruptcy in '03

Friday March 12, 5:13 pm ET

WASHINGTON, March 12 (Reuters) - One out of every 73 U.S. households filed for bankruptcy last year, a record high, despite historically low interest rates, the American Bankruptcy Institute said on Friday.

-END-

*We have been constantly told there is no inflation in the United States. Most all of Wall Street conjures to this notion, for their own good reason. The P/E ratios are extraordinarily high. The rationalization by many on Wall Street of these ridiculously high ratios is the low inflation rate in the US. If inflation were revealed to be what it really is, then many stocks would be looked at as way overvalued, resulting in weaker share prices..

*This is extremely disturbing. Orwellian spin is ruling the day in America. Facts mean little. If the present Administration doesn’t like the facts, it ignores them, which has to be the reason why the PPI figures are not being released. Even a mental midget can understand they are not releasing the figures because they are too high. Are you telling me it is a coincidence the US is not releasing the numbers just as the CRB has taken off and other items like steel prices are exploding? What a joke this one is and how pathetic so few in the financial community are not calling the present Administration on this egregious faux pas.

*No inflation? Take a gander at the following charts:

May soybeans ($9.78 ¼, up 22 ½ cents per bushel)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SB/54

April crude oil ($37.44, up $1.25 per barrel and a new high close)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/44

May copper ($134.90, up $3.55)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/54

April platinum ($912, up $5)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/PL/44

May silver ($7.14, up 7.7 cents)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/54

April CRB (278.36, up 4.26)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/44

*Yes, I know wage pressures are benign. However, this is because the jobs picture is so lousy. Meanwhile, as food, energy, health costs rise, the average American is getting more squeezed and going more into debt to cover this squeeze.

*The CRB is making new highs even as the dollar has shot upward the past month:

June dollar (89.23, down .35)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/64

What do you think commodity prices are going to do when the dollar tanks again? Some might say the dollar is going to rally. Then how is the growing US trade deficit ever going to get in line? If the dollar doesn’t retreat fairly soon, the US job picture is not going to improve either and President Bush can kiss a second term goodbye. Therefore, the odds greatly favor a dollar decline and for commodity prices to shoot up even further.

Market commentators routinely talk of bond market manipulation due to the extraordinary buying by the Chinese and Japanese. Course to talk of gold price manipulation is akin to hearsay. Talk of double standards. How pathetic! Still, this brings us to ask the question how long the Asians are going to keep up their buying and keep our interest rates much lower than they otherwise might be? A hint of what is to come:

NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - The dollar fell more than 1 yen against the Japanese currency on Monday, in a swift reaction after the Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan was mulling ending large scale currency market interventions as soon as the end of March.

The dollar dropped to lows around 109.23 yen from around 110.50 yen before the report. The dollar has since partially recovered to 109.75 yen according to Reuters data. Japan has been undertaking huge yen-weakening interventions in order to defend its export sector.

–END-

A week ago Friday MIDAS reported rumors were beginning to surface the Fed/Bush Administration is planning to drive the dollar down and was going to the Japanese to curtail their intervention. March 31 is fiscal year end for the Japanese.

My guess is the Japanese are paying attention and this is their response. The dollar could swiftly swoon at any time.

*The rigging of the gold price by a US led cabal has led many investors to believe the US financial market scene is much healthier than it really is behind the scenes. Like it or not, gold is used as a financial market barometer. Every time it shoots way up, there is talk of inflation or safe haven buying. Just the way it is, which is the reason the US is sitting all over the price these days. With the US financial markets in a fairly precarious position, The Gold Cartel is doing all they can to subdue the gold price.

This is what CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH has been about the past five years. Gold will only go through the roof when the anti-American/pro cabal banks are beaten and forced to give up their scheming fraud. This could happen next week, or next year. Hard to say. The good news is the bums are gradually losing control of silver. The only reason silver is moving up is the bad guys don’t have the physical anymore to keep it from rising. It has been my opinion for months that silver will lead us to the promised land. Once silver blows sky high, it is going to become harder and harder for the corrupt low-lifes to maintain their scam. Demand for gold is going to soar all over the world and The Gold Cartel will go down in flames.

***

There is much more I could get into, but too much for a daily MIDAS. My point is there is a strong possibility the commodity, bond, dollar and stock markets could be really roiled in the weeks to come. The Working Group on Financial Markets has done all it can to keep the volatility in the financial markets to a minimum. They are deathly afraid of the a derivatives blow up, one which could set of the Gold Derivatives Neutron Bomb and lead to an interest rate derivatives neutron bomb going off. The ingredients for a financial market perfect storm are in place. We shall see.

Back to the gold market. The gold open interest rose 879 contracts to 237,511, while the silver open interest gained 23 contracts to 118,252. This tells us new silver buyers were waiting in the weeds to buy the break. Normally, the specs would have liquidated on such a substantial drop in price. It also tells us why silver rallied 13 cents off its Friday lows and followed through today.

Once again the $6 rule comes into play. When the Japanese intervention news hit the tape, gold spiked up a bit, rising EXACTLY $6 higher on the session ($401 bid) when the goon squad showed up. It is uncanny how many times this happens, yet no one ever says a word but MIDAS.

The Café Sentiment Indicator dropped to its lowest levels since the 3rd week of this year over the weekend.

Compare the CRB chart and the other commodity charts to the gold one. Price Action Makes Market Commentary. The Gold Cartel is sitting on gold for that very reason, for if gold were allowed to trade freely, the gold market commentary would be glowing, a cabal no-no. If The Gold Cartel wasn’t capping the gold price, it would have broken above $450 by now. As is, gold is still beginning to move higher in non-dollar terms, which is a very healthy sign.

April Gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/44

Silver came in where it closed. It wasn’t ready to move today and the constant cabal pressure to hold gold back was a restraint. Silver dances to its own drummer. When it is ready to move, look out above.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

Bearish overeach?

Monday, March 15, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.67, PM $3.57, with world gold at $397.57 and $398.40. Dubious for, and definitely below, legal import point. HSBC explains the recovery early today from the dismal NY close of $394.90 by saying:

Zitat

"…good levels of physical buying overnight, notably from India and China, have helped the gold price to rally back towards the USD398/oz level. The increasing physical interest on price dips is encouraging…"

However, it is a fact that Indian appetite around $400 is less than a month ago. This is quite normal from a seasonal point of view.

Apparently the lower gold price on the Asian open this morning attracted buying from several directions. UBS even refers to ‘decent Japanese buying’ and Mitsui-HK to ‘strong buying out of Tocom’. This is only mildly apparent from the statistics: TOCOM volume was equivalent to only 22,555 Comex lots (down 11% from Friday), but open interest did rise by the equivalent of 1,368 Comex to equal 116,618 NY lots. The active contract went out down 12 yen, but $US gold stood $2.10 above the NY close. Moreover, gold did reverse direction from NY, and the contrast between the tone of the commentaries emanating from the two hemispheres is quite marked. (Volume in NY on Friday was a heavy 63,853 lots; open interest rose 879 lots to 237,511. Since gold was down $5.40, most would judge short selling to have predominated over long liquidation.

Gold had had the temerity to rise in the early Asian day on Friday; it was relentlessly punished in Western hours by continuous selling. ScotiaMocatta observes:

Zitat

"…dealer selling entered the market. Dealers, locals and funds sold gold steadily throughout the day, but the sell off remained rather orderly, as significant scale down physical buying, combined with dealer short covering, absorbed all the offers. However, gold could not muster much of a bounce…"

Standard London’s version is:

Zitat

"liquidators of gold holdings seized control and gold began sliding lower and lower on the back of a rising dollar. Gold was sold to a low offer of 395.20 and the 395 held up the market for the rest of the session. Even with good physical demand at the lows, dealers continued to be on the offer and it closed quietly…"

(The open interest data belies the idea that the pressure was mainly long liquidation, of course. Bullion bank commentators never seem to see short sellers, who would probably not appreciate their activities being disclosed.)

Many informed Western observers are quite intimidated by the resolution shown by the sellers: and the CFTC data shows why. In the week to last Tuesday, large specs added 58 tonnes (18%) to their net long positions for only a $9.30 increase in price to $402.25. Technical damage has been significant, and sentiment has deteriorated. Refco Research abandoned its long this morning, unusually without being stopped out – it had been targeting $408. This is quite representative.

However the bears may be entering less favorable ground. As noted above, while the zone of strong physical interest may be a little lower than a month ago, it clearly is still around here. That more than expected of Friday’s pressure was short selling should shift sentiment a little. Indeed, MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus for gold did drop to 69% on Friday evening – not absolutely low, it is true, but gold has only spent 18 days in the upper 60s since last July, and has not gone lower. Finally, since 9/11 gold has had a geopolitical component. The evidence of Sunday’s Spanish election that the Madrid atrocity may have succeeded in cracking the US diplomatic coalition augers well for gold, if nothing else.

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The US stock market gave back all of Friday’s gains and then some. The DOW dropped 137 to 10,102 and the DOG flopped 45 to 1939. A few more days like this and we could have that perfect financial market storm sooner rather than later.

The good news:

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. industrial production rose a larger-than-forecast 0.7 percent in February as companies made more cars, electronics and business equipment, a report from the Federal Reserve showed.

The increase in production at the nation's factories, mines and utilities last month followed a 0.8 percent rise in January and was the fifth in the last six months, the Fed said in Washington. The proportion of industrial capacity in use rose to 76.6 percent, the highest since August 2001, from 76.1 percent. –END-

The bad news:

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- A gauge of manufacturing in New York state fell in March from a record, showing the slowest rate of expansion since September, as the outlook for new orders and hiring weakened, a survey found.

The factory index compiled by the Buffalo branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York sank to 25.3 this month from the high of 42.1 in February. A number greater than zero shows that a majority of manufacturers said business improved.

The bad news means this:

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Higher interest rates are at least nine months away, according to a growing number of economists at Wall Street's largest bond-trading firms.
The Federal Reserve will wait until 2005 to raise its key interest rate from 1 percent, said economists at 10 of the 23 primary U.S. government securities dealers, which trade with the central bank, surveyed by Bloomberg News. In December, just six economists said the Fed would wait that long. –END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $3.5 Billion in repurchase agreements today march 15th 2004.This action caused the repo pool to edge up a bit to $35.25 Billion and also moved the pool's moving average to a level trajectory. The ma seems to be preparing for a move back up but this conclusion is not yet firm.

The DOW's own 30-day ma has made a tiny up tick since Friday and this seemingly innocuous move is important as it tells me that the Fed has steered the DOW's ma from a very short down stretch back to level, as predicted.

Back to 10,500 by the end of April

It doesn't seem like much of a prediction but by moving the DOW back to the 10,500 level at the end of April keeps it right on track for 11,750 by Labor Day.

It may not appear so but I'm trying to remain objective here and not fall in love with this working hypothesis. What continues to keep me energized is the dreadful sea of untoward financial fundamentals confronting the Fed as it grapples with reality. An inflationary reality for them that has no exit strategy except abject failure through currency debasement.

In such a scenario the Fed is highly motivated to present a brave face to the world through one of its still viable financial marionettes--the DOW. Their other stage puppet is the manipulation of long-term interest rates. However, even that Fed stalwart is being eroded by the imminent news release of $25 Billion in GSE derivatives losses which will doubtless focus more unwanted attention on JP Moragn's obscene $25 Trillion derivatives book (constructed as a pool of needed interventional liquidity).

Which of the Fed's many rigs will fail first?

There's no telling which commodity or interest rate market will collapse
first nor is it possible to predict the date. This is the reason that prudent investors should take reasonable steps as soon as possible in order to prepare for all eventualities.
Mike

My IA site has been updated:

http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis

But there is no inflation: From The King Report:

The Seattle Time’s Tony Pugh writes, "The government's top expert on Medicare costs was warned that he would be fired if he told key lawmakers about a series of Bush administration cost estimates that could have torpedoed congressional passage of the White House-backed Medicare prescription-drug plan." Bush’s initial $395B cost for his proposed drug benefit plan has been revised $100+B higher. The expert in question, "Richard Foster, the chief actuary for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which produced the $551 billion estimate, told colleagues in June that he would be fired if he revealed the higher estimate to lawmakers." The article notes, "Foster didn't quit, but congressional staffers and lawmakers who worked on the bill said he no longer was permitted to answer important questions about the bill's cost." Case closed on government economic data integrity. http://seattletimes.nwsource.c…01877368_medicare120.html

From Adrian on the Saudi/gold situation:

I just did a rough calculation to see the viability of the Saudi gold hunting news. I took $36 per barrel and said that is about $9 more than the recent average annual price and OPEC target price of around $27. This gives Saudi a windfall revenue on 8 million barrels per day of 72 million dollars per day. At $400/oz they can buy 5.5 tons per day..that is 2008 tons on an annual basis. Well, what a coincidence!

So given the extra windfall revenue the number is certainly credible. Given the noise in OPEC about the devaluing of the dollar it makes sense….then there is the dynamite link and coincidence that Matahir Mohammed of Malaysia recently visited Saudi and advised them to sell oil in gold not dollars.

The numbers and the current facts fit…and now there are rumors of large purchases being planned.

It makes sense.

Adrian

From George Ure (http://www.urbansurvival.com). MIDAS has company over my outrage at the US Government and their shenanigans:

Friday

Friday's BIG Lies

The market's decline this week, which we'll get into more for subscribers over the weekend, is not the product of "overseas security concerns", so much as it is the whole world is waking up to what we pointed out yesterday: The world is entering a period of extreme fuel price uncertainty. How will the administration cope? The answer is simple: Lie.

Let me point out just a couple of obvious ones, so you can see it for yourself in absolute black and white. Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics is supposed to release the February Producer Price Index. But they won't - they can't. Why? because they haven't released the January PPI figures. And why is that? Take your pick of one of two options. Either the government is telling the truth on their web site at http://www.bls.gov/ppi/delaynotice.htm which says in part:

"As announced on February 17, the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January 2004 has been delayed from the originally scheduled date of February 19, 2004. The length of that delay now means that the release of February data originally scheduled for Friday, March 12, must also be postponed.

The delays have been caused by unexpected difficulties in the conversion of PPI data from the Standard Industrial Classification system to the North American Industry Classification System. These difficulties have taken far longer to resolve than we originally expected.
We will continue to work diligently to resolve the remaining issues holding up the calculation of the PPI. When revised release dates for the January and for the February 2004 Producer Price Indexes have been determined, we plan to announce them at least one day ahead of time on this web page and through news advisories."
What does this imply? It means the government - with all of its resources - can't even figure out the producer price index, which has been a stalwart of economic forecasting for decades. OK, you want to believe the government? Then you have to believe they are dumber than a typical college business class, which working as a group could have resolved the whole thing in a matter of a week or two - and had money left over for a party.

Frankly, I can't buy it., I can't believe people in BLS are stupid. I think they're smart - damn smart. But they also know they would be axed if they spilled the beans about the producer prices which we demonstrated in January would be up 20% because of things like the 30-60% increases in steel prices and the fuel prices.

{Prediction: We won't see the Producer Price Index any time soon because it is a political nightmare. It won't happen until after the next "terror attack" because the BLS no doubt needs something to hide it behind.

The Second Lie

So the PPI is buried, now how does the administration get rid of inflation? Answer: Fuel Surcharges. Fuel surcharges aren't counted as "inflation" because they are deemed "extraordinary." I expect there has been a rash of phone calls from the neocons to their corporatist pals with a simple requestr: "You're a patriot, right? OK, we need you not to raise your rates. Use a "fuel surcharge" instead, so we don't have to report high inflation, OK? That way you will make the same amount of money at your corporation - and be doing a big favor for the President, who we all know needs a second term in order to defend our American Way of Life, right?" "Err...I guess so..." "The President thanks you..."

Now, let's say that I want to UPS a package to my son in Kirkland, Wa. I want to overnight him a box of CD's that weights one pound, and is 6" cube. what would I pay? I click through the UPS web site...and am rewarded with a quote:

Charges Per Package
32.91*

Hmmm....what's that asterisk?

* Rate includes a fuel surcharge.

Oh...well then, what's the surcharge rate? (click, click, search, click...)
http://www.ups.com/content/us/…/cost/fuel_surcharge.html

What we see is that UPS charges a fuel surcharge based on US Gulf Coast jet fuel prices. If the price is $0.90 a gallon, the surcharge would be 5.50%. And where do we get the fuel prices? The Department of Energy of course.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil…t/current/pdf/table15.pdf

January and Feb look like this:… Chart not available

So if Jan is the basis for March, then the surcharge would be 6.5%, or if Feb is the basis, it would be 5.5%.

Now let's get back to my son's CD's, OK? Let's say that the fuel surcharge is based on January, and is 6.5%. This means on a 32.91 shipment, the fuel charge component is ($32.91*.065).$2.13. But wait! Didn't UPS rates go up in the past year? Suppose their rates went up 5% over the past year...add the "surcharge" and the effective rate of "inflation" for shipping is on the order of 11.5%.

I'm not picking on UPS - they are by far my favorite shipping company and extremely well run. But I want you to know that even an honest company like UPS is using "surcharges" - which may - or more likely won't - be picked up by govercrats working in election year mode. Not counting surcharges is like not counting tax rates. Why not? They're real - and are paid by real people, right?

Meantime, I'm sticking by my December forecast of a 13% US inflation rate this year - and if we see something less, it will only be because surcharges hide the real inflation and the produce price index might be extinct, for all we know.

-END-

From http://www.theage.com in Australia: For the "Nits" in the gold industry. Cartels are everywhere all over the world. The most obvious one of all, the gold one, stares you in the face every day. Wake up and grow up!

ACCC to cure economy of 'cartel cancer'
By Gabrielle Costa
March 16, 2004

Australia's consumer watchdog has promised to bust cartels operating in Australia, setting itself up to launch a series of prosecutions to ensure the economy operates under a regime of vigorous competition.

Speaking yesterday at a Melbourne luncheon hosted by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia, Graeme Samuel, chairman of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, said that cartel behaviour had a far greater impact on consumers and the economy than the worst consumer scams.

He described cartels, including price-fixing arrangements and collusive tendering, as a "cancer on the economy" and a "silent extortion on consumers", and said they would be the ACCC's focus this year.

Mr Samuel said the ACCC had 32 investigations under way into cartel behaviour. Some centred on small groups of relatively small companies accused of price fixing, but others were international in scale.

Speaking after the luncheon, Mr Samuel said prosecutions would happen. "There are a number of them there. I don't know whether each and every one of them will prove up but . . . when you've got 32 that are there sitting on your books and some of them are coming in pretty loud and clear through the use of the leniency policy, what that says to me is that the leniency policy is working."

The ACCC has offered immunity from prosecution for companies that report cartel behaviour and assist in investigations. Only the first company to come forward from a cartel is provided with immunity - granted on the condition that that company did not initiate the cartel behaviour.

"It's (the leniency policy) starting to break down these cartels and there can be no greater satisfaction at the moment than to do just that," Mr Samuel said.

But he declined to give a timeframe for any prosecutions and refused to be drawn on which companies, or which sectors, were alleged to be involved.

The leniency policy is starting to break down these cartels.

GRAEME SAMUEL, ACCC

Mr Samuel said he would attend a conference in Korea in mid-April where international cartels would be discussed.

Australia would host a cartels workshop at the end of the year. Major international cartels were "clearly a lot more difficult to deal with because you've got to deal with international agencies," he said.

Mr Samuel also:

•Repeated his view that jail terms for cartel operators would provide a much greater deterrent than fines. The Federal Government is considering whether to introduce jail terms for hard-core cartel operators.

•Reiterated his opposition to a formalisation of the merger applications process, maintaining that the current informal arrangements were satisfactory.

•Said that any move by Parmalat to sell off its Australian holdings would be monitored because of the concentration of ownership in the dairy industry, in particular if National Foods or Australian Dairy Farmers bought stakes. "The number of processors in Australia are few and far between," he said.

-END-

Haggis from AussieLand:

G’day Bill,

Trouble in paradise!!!

The 13th of January 2004 was an important date. On that day, Gold was short sold, and since then the Gold price has formed a bullish wedge pattern, which eventually will break out above the US$ 400 – 410 resistance slope.

Also on the 13th January the stock markets started their topping formation, a "head and shoulders", which culminated in a break below the neckline on the 9th March.

On the 9th March the Silver price broke out above US$6.92. As you have correctly pointed out, there is no stockpile of silver, and as I understand it there is a massive short position.

On the 9th March Gold was yet again short sold, remaining in its wedge. There is a massive short position in Gold.

Once again, I highlight the point that the Chinese have mined gold for some 3,000 years, and currently produce the order of 3 million ounces per annum. They do not export it, so who has the Gold? China!

You have also highlighted that the Chinese have also "cornered" Silver production, having acquired 75% of all Silver production for the year 2005.

Och Aye

Haggis

Le Metropole Café has a history of trying to figure out moves ahead of time:

Dear Sir
,
In the 19-th century Le Metropole Cafe was known for accommodating chess championships.

Horia Stefan

Investors can’t get out of their gold shares fast enough. It is not hard to understand why. More and more of the pundits who follow the gold shares are advising clients (subscribers) to use extreme caution or to exit their positions. This includes Café contributors. Then you have hedge funds, which are being forced out to some degree due to the precipitously falling DOG. The XAU fell 2.33 to 96.30 and the HUI sank 6.44 to 215.60.

If the HUI loses another 6 points and closes below 210, it will break its rounding bottom formation.

As for me, I am all systems go. The Gold Cartel is in the process of losing control of the silver rig due to lack of physical market supply. While the cabal is all over gold at the moment, events in the days and weeks to come are likely to shake their iron-hand grip on gold significantly. Note that we are not undergoing a commodity price liquidation. The reverse is happening. We have close to having a melt-up. What could be more bullish for gold and silver?

Sure the shares could do anything short-term if there is a stock market debacle. But, I can’t see them staying down for more than a very brief perios. This is unlike 1987 when US interest rates were much higher. Are investors going to go into cash? If the Fed has to react to a stock market problem are they going to lower the US Fed Funds rate to ½%. Talk about panic setting in! If the dollar collapses is the Fed going to do, raise rates? Hardly! Seems to me they are in a box with few remedies to handle erupting financial market problems.

More than likely the HUI is going to come in 10 points higher one of these days and go straight up. Those out of position gold share wise will find re-entry to be very difficult.

As far as gold and silver are concerned, this was my call on Friday with gold down $5.20 and silver down 11 cents:

"My bet is gold takes out $406 and silver approaches $7.50."

That call still stands.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!