Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Precious Metals Bulls, take heart, paper shares are merely a trade, a hedge in the Short to intermediate Term, before uncertainty unfolds.


    This is precisely why; we have remained congruent with respect to GOLD and SILVER: "Own the Metals first." Nothing suits Precious Metals more than uncertainty. CONfidence lost is certainty gained; five thousand years of History remain entirely congruent in this simple exercise. GOLD and SILVER are money, they are sound, honest and remain Debt free.


    The paper shares, at some point in the not too distant future will go up in flames as well; they are merely a leveraged play in the Metals. The opportunity to position in the shares after we complete this most recent, forced trend reversal will provide an enormous potential for Capital Gains.


    This most recent attack was perfectly orchestrated. Those who recognized the assault in advance moved aside and now have the ability to repurchase shares at much lower price levels, thereby gaining in terms of both positions for entry as well as being able to purchase more shares.


    We trade for position, and seek to make the greatest returns when we Buy and collect when we Sell.


    http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…_05/jmackenzie041705.html

    3 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Eldorado ()

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/roffey041705.html


    Another article:



    If you follow the myriad of "Gurus" all professing to have some magic "voodoo" which allows them to predict price and time movements, you will soon realize that following the crowd is a real good and real fast way to lose money. If "gurus" were worth a damn, they would give their service away, they wouldn't need to charge for it. But it's in the nature of man to want to follow the crowd and to listen to those who preach what they want to hear. That's why the scalliwags will always be present in the financial arena and always do quite well for themselves.


    Commodities in general have been correcting and have a lot further to go. This includes oil as well as base metals. Moly is down from $35.50 to $32.45, oil from about $58 to $52 and I expect them to continue to correct. This does not mean it's a good time to sell, on the contrary, it's a good time to buy. Jim Rogers makes the most valid of points about where we stand in a commodities bull market. He points out that there are 40,000 stock mutual funds and 6 commodity funds. That's not a top. That's actually pretty close to a bottom, it doesn't get much worse.


    Baby Bush and the Beltway Bandits continue to rape American taxpayers as they press on with their cornucopia of corruption and deceit. Congress abdicated their role as the institution responsible for declaring war when they passed a resolution allowing Baby Bush to invade Iraq pending two conditions, (1) Certification that Iraq possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction and (2) Certification that Iraq was connected to 9/11.


    Neither was true which makes the invasion illegal even according to US law, which Attorney General Gonzales considers quaint. Wars are easy to start and nearly impossible to end. You can no more win a war than you can win a case of the clap, everyone loses in a war. And they are expensive. Without doubt, when the reckoning is made, the Iraq invasion will prove to be the straw that broke the back of the dollar. The only real issue is if our Republic ends with a whimper or a bang.


    After some 150,000 Iraqi deaths and 1600 American lives thrown away, Bush and crew seem tempted to try it again since they did such a wonderful job in Iraq. Our new target is Iran which Bush believes is on the verge of gaining nuclear weapons even though he can't figure out Israel posses a far great arsenal of WMD. If we attack Iran it will be obvious in the first week that we have bitten off far more than we can chew. For the first time since I have been alive, I firmly believe we are on the verge of a global nuclear war which we will lose. You can forget an Israeli attack in Iran, their aircraft lack the range and Israel has no friends anywhere in the region. If there is an attack on Iran, it will come from us and a short time later oil will be $100 a barrel. You won't be able to give dollars away.


    There are some really valid reasons to invest in gold and precious metals, both in the physical and the shares. The dollar may be in a short term correction higher but like a row boat 500 meters upstream from Niagara Falls, the future is predictable and it's not a pretty picture. The dollar and our republic are toast. We are in a slow motion crash but make no mistake, Rome burns as Nero fiddles.


    I wrote a piece in January, suggesting we were at a bottom. I was about half right. Silver hit the basement in January but gold and precious metals shares continued down until a temporary bottom in February. We have tested that bottom with a slightly lower XAU and HUI. Both of them seem to be discounting $350 gold which isn't in the cards. We had a hard crash in the metals shares on Friday and that's a good time to be buying. We have been in a 17 month correction since the beginning of December of 2003 and that's long enough for me. I believe if you invest now you will be soon rewarded.


    The easiest money to be made investing in metals shares is to buy just before a mine goes into production. It's the most predictable move in mining. I mentioned Desert Sun (DSM-T $1.66) and Endeavour Silver (EDR-V $2.13) in January and both of them had nice (and predictable) moves higher. But the stock which is just screaming BUY-ME, BUY-ME has to be Excellon. (EXN-V $.20 Canadian 150 million shares fully diluted)


    http://www.321gold.com/editori…iarty/moriarty041805.html

    3 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Eldorado ()

    Taylor On US$ & Gold


    Richard Richard talked once again about deflation and the dollar short thesis; I believe the person who recently began circulating this thesis was Bob Hoye, who we interviewed a couple of months back. As Bob notes, the senior currency has always tended to be the strongest currency in major post-bubble eras in the past. In any event, Russell pointed to the stronger dollar, still very low U.S. interest rates, the stock market decline, and declining commodity prices as all suggestive that we could be heading toward deflation.


    I could not agree with him more. The equity markets are looking forward and they do not like what they are seeing. What do they see? We won't know until later, but I think it is entirely possible they are getting a preview of the second Great Depression within 100 yeas as we have been suggesting was coming our way. The signs Richard Russell has oft stated are certainly not suggestive of the kind of healthy and growing economy talking head after talking head is suggesting on CNBC.


    Friday we saw more strengthening of the dollar and the long bond. As can be seen from the chart above, the dollar has actually now broken above its downtrend line that began in 2002 albeit not as yet in a convincing manner. Consistent with recent "strength" of the dollar has been a recent strengthening of long U.S. Treasury instruments. Note the sharp rise in our the 20-year to 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds which are contained within the Lehman iShares that trade under the symbol TLT. The rally in the ETF has allows us to narrow our loss in this Model Portfolio selection from just under 4% last week to 1.7% this week.


    Gold Shares Remain Dreadful Performers, But That Should Soon Change


    Gold shares are still acting dreadful. As can be seen on the chart on the left, both the GoldColony.com Index and J Taylor's Gold Stocks have hit new lows since about September 2003. I think Richard Russell is probably right in suggesting gold investments will initially be adversely affected when deflation gets the upper hand in the economy because people will first scramble for dollar liquidity before trying to hang on to their gold stocks.


    The washout in the small cap gold stocks may be especially pronounced. But quite frankly, they are so cheap now, compared to what many of these companies have going for by way of the metal values they already have in the ground or are in the process of outlining. A couple of examples are once again mentioned in this weekly letter. But I truly believe this current period of weakness will most likely be seen as a golden buying opportunity for junior gold stocks. The succession should be as follows: 1) Investors scramble for cash by selling stocks, art objects, second homes and virtually everything they don't have to have to stay alive. They do this so they can remain financially solvent and hang on to the things they have to have. 2). Financial institutions begin to default, thus causing a lack of confidence in retaining fiat money in banks and other institutions. That leads people to seek the ultimate safety in money, which is beyond any doubt, gold. It is safe because unlike fiat money, it is an asset money, not a liability money as is the dollar. 3) As citizens and investors move from fit to gold, the real price of gold begins to rise dramatically. (Think Dow/Gold at a 1:1 ratio). As gold rises, the scramble for "money in the ground" will be increasingly more intense. In the gold shares, the initial move will be to the major mining firms and then down the food chain. Ultimately, the frenzy into this sector is likely to be so great that companies merely with the name "Gold" in them will likely rise significantly in value, though nominal values for these shares may be much more temperate than was true during the inflationary Internet mania. However, what we need to keep in mind during the deflationary era are "real" prices for gold and gold shares. With prices of virtually everything dropping, nominal values become of a secondary importance to purchasing power.


    Major Gold Stocks Remain Weak


    The chart of the XAU on your left demonstrates the weakness in the gold share markets last week. However, note the bull market remains very much in tact though the higher trend line displayed was violated on Friday. I would be concerned if the lower trend line were violated, but at least for now it appears quite safe. It is likely in my view that we will look back at this time as an excellent buying opportunity for the gold shares and especially for the juniors.


    Aside from Cash, Gold Is Where We Want to Be


    Bob Hoye gave an example of how gold tends to perform so well during deflationary periods of time. This is important to note because as I said earlier, most buyers of gold buy the yellow metal as a hedge against inflation when in fact, historically, gold acts best during deflation. Quoting Mr. Hoye from his "Pivotal Events" of this past Thursday:


    "As the great financial bubble failed in October 1825, the biggest broker, Poole & Co. in London, was considered too big and important to go under.


    "The Bank of England agreed, but the speed of the decline rendered any assistance impossible and the biggest broker in the world's financial capital defaulted. On that bubble collapse, initial pressure didn't clear the market until January 1826.


    "The secular contraction, with the usual 3-4 year business cycle prevailing, endured the typical 20-25 years until 1844. On that post-bubble contraction, copper's real price went from 137 to 81 as gold's' real price increased from 107 to 174."

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Eldorado ()

    In dem Artikel der Financial Times werden mal nicht Zertikate und andere Derivate empfohlen, auch weniger Goldminenaktien, sondern der physische Goldkauf.


    Portfolio: Wachsendes Misstrauen gegen Papiergeld
    von Markus Zydra


    Vermögensverwalter empfehlen Gold als Absicherung gegen eine höhere Inflation. Gold-Fonds gelten aber auch als volatil und risikoreich, denn bei den Minenkonzernen ist auch nicht alles Gold, was glänzt.


    [...] keine Komplettzitate! Gruß HORSTWALTER


    Aus der FTD vom 19.04.2005

    Als "neuer" User, der aber schon einige Zeit stiller
    Mitleser ist, möchte ich mich auch gerne in die Diskussion
    ums Gold einklinken.


    Der Artikel im letzten posting aus der financial times verblüfft schon etwas, da
    die Medien entweder vom Gold abraten oder wenn nicht, dann Derivate, Zertifikate
    und ähnlichem "Mist" empfehlen, der immer den Banken, nie dem Goldpreis selber nützt.

    Aber hin- und wieder müssen sie auch mal Wahres berichten, bzw. den Lesern Vernüftiges raten,
    sonst leidet ihre Glaubwürdigkeit.


    Sollte das aber der Auftakt für eine generelle Richtungsänderung der Medien sein,
    hin zur allgemeinen Empfehlung der physischen Goldanlage, befürchte ich, das eher
    als Kontra-Indikator ansehen zu müssen.


    Hoffen wir, dass die Goldpreis-Manipulation sich endlich, endlich abschwächt oder
    aufhört, bzw. die langsam am Ende sind.


    [Diesbezüglich bin ich aber leider mittlerweile wesentlich skeptischer als noch
    vor ca. 2 Jahren, als ich mich doch sehr von der ständigen Euphorie der
    (sicher sehr verdienstvollen, aber in dem Punkt leider falsch liegenden ) GATA anstecken
    lies].


    Gruesse Gold-Löwe

    @ gold-loewe


    Gut gebruellt am Anfang, herzlich willkommen von meiner seite.
    Ich habe auch so angefangen, wie jeder.
    Du hast Recht mit GATA aber die wissen auch nicht den genauen zeitpunkt wann das Cartel bzw. PPT in die knie geht.
    Die munition die sie haben ist ja ein wahnsinn, selbst 61trillionen USD stoppten den dollar bis jetzt nicht. Der kommt aber als inflation zurueck und backfires eines tages. Das Wort Inflation fehlte die letzten Jahre und das nehmen die medien seit monaten wieder in den mund was wiederum gut fuer gold ist.


    Gruss


    Eldorado

    2 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Eldorado ()

    Eldorado


    danke Eldorado, ja den Zeitpunkt, wann das Cartel bzw. PPT in die knie geht
    wissen die und auch sonst kein Unbeteiligter leider, leider nicht. Ich glaube, viele Goldbugs (und mir ging es genauso) unterschätzen einfach die Macht, die die haben.
    Ich hoffe nach wie vor (und bin deshalb auch ziemlich stark in Silber und Gold investiert), dass sich die Ungleichgewichte des Finanzsystems in Richtung 'höhere Edelmetall-Preise' entladen. Ich bin mir dessen aber keineswegs mehr sicher und halte es im Nachhinein für einen Fehler von mir, zu einseitig auf diese Option gesetzt zu haben.
    Eine Investition in "normale" Rohstoffe, die nicht so sehr im Fokus derartiger Manipulationen stehen (Basismetalle, Öl), und eher dem Angebot-/Nachfrage-Gesetz gehorchen, wäre (vielleicht auch jetzt noch) klüger (gewesen).


    Ich meine damit, dass irgendeine Euphorie oder "Gewissheit", dass jetzt endlich "sicher" der Goldpreis explodiert, weil dieses oder jenes Mosaiksteinchen gerade zum grossen Bild dazugekommen ist, (z.B. gerade der geplatze IWF-Gold-Verkauf), einfach fehl am Patze wäre. Die führenden Kreise in den USA werden die Zügel leider nicht so schnell aus den Händen geben.


    Gruss Gold-Löwe

    Report From the Little People


    Brian W Pascal
    April 19, 2005


    It's great that we have a plethora of seasoned gold and precious metal analysts. I commend them for the thousands of charts they produce that show the Little People where it's at and what's happening in the markets. Many of them sell this information through newsletters or through a variety of tools that help the Little People plot, chart and analyze better. It also appears that these analysts and gurus are the only people making money in gold these days. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Little People are pulling cellophane bags over their heads in an attempt to escape the daily rape and pillage of their souls and bank accounts. It's time to hear from the Little People.


    Little People know their place. Little People grease the market wheels. Without the Little People, no market can exist. You would think the gold market would throw them a bone once in a while. Not a chance. It's a 'scorched earth' and 'shock 'n awe' policy they have going. And the program runs daily. No rest. No respite from the plunging gold stocks and a spot price that seems to be forever hanging over the Pits of Zool. Every day, some of the Little People open a vein in front of their computers in quiet desperation. Each downtick is another blow to their dreams of power, fame and glory. This is not good for the Little People or the market.


    Some would argue that Little People are ignorant and won't take the time needed to study and analyze the markets. Let me assure you that the Little People pay plenty for Newsletters and Charting Tools. Let me assure you that the Little People are on a dozen different gold forums sifting out information and reading more material than a government Tax Auditor. The Little People can extract moisture from very old roadkill in pursuit of a profit if necessary.


    Others would argue that the Little People are too emotional and don't have the stamina and discipline required to become professional traders. Well, the Little People will let you in on a little secret. Picking a junior gold explorer because it has a nice sounding name or picking a junior using your ten thousand dollar charting and analysis program usually provides the same results. Instant poverty. Nobody goes broke faster than the Little People. And talking about stamina, who but the Little people would hang in there for over twenty years clutching their bullion and their worthless gold stocks all the way? Cold, dry professional traders make the Little People very ill.


    It's not a good time for the Little People right now. They're bruised from getting squeezed for every nickle and dime they have. They're rung out like wet blankets but still they buy the dips and read the forums and provide the grist for the mill. Despite the pain, the Little People know the Great Gold Spike is coming. They're all sitting in the Gold Patch waiting for it to wash over them like an orgasmic tsunami. :D Bring it on! .


    April 18, 2005
    Brian W Pascal

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Eldorado ()

    FRANKFURT/M. „Die schwachen Preise bieten Anlegern möglicherweise die letzte Chance auf den Einstieg in diese lange Zeit vernachlässigte Anlageklasse“, sagt der wohl populärste Vertreter dieser Gruppe, Jim Rogers, der vor vielen Jahren Partner des weltbekannten Hedge-Fonds-Managers George Soros war. Solche Preiskorrekturen seien die „letzte Chance, auf den fahrenden Zug aufzuspringen“, sagte Rogers gegenüber dieser Zeitung.




    http://www.goldseiten.de/modul…visit.php?cid=5&lid=12935

    2 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Eldorado ()

    Monday, April 18, 2005, 7:30:00 PM EST


    Gold and Dollar Market Summary


    Author: Jim Sinclair



    Dear CIGA:


    Signs appeared in the marketplace today that the short covering and carry trade reversal down under have reached the point of exhaustion. The US dollar shows signs of having made a top in this counter-trend rally and, as a result, gold appears to be bottoming -if not today then likely very soon.


    The words of former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker will be borne out in the marketplace. There is simply no chance at all of launching a dollar bull market when the cure to its ills is not policy replacement but market forces. Sure market forces will affect the US dollar but the trend of the market force is down not up.

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Eldorado ()

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