Wie auch immer, schoen war es heute.
Morgen wird es richtig spannend !
Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)
- ThaiGuru
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Und der Index soll mal unter < 88 bleiben dann brauchen wir nichts fuerchten.
Bei < 85 geht dann die Post ab mit POG. -
Hallo, Aladin,
Kommst du klar mit den 'Vierzig (Gold) Räubern"?
betr.: dein 13.09., 18:04 bezügl. Rosen's Editorial auf 321,
"Curioser and Curioser",
seltsam, ich bin schon seit Monaten am Grübeln, ob ich nicht in
der Dezember 05/Januar 06 - Phase Kasse mache und meine
HUI - Exposition auf 35% reduziere.Gründe:
- es mag sein, dass es der Peak der C-Wave ist (lt. Aden Sisters),- Steven Rhinehart erwartet ebenfalls noch ein "minor" bottom im July 2006
http://www.financialsense.com/…s/rinehart/2004/1015.html- und Mitte 2006 ist wahrscheinlich das Tal in den Sonnen-Zyklen zu erwarten, Wechsel Zyklus 23 auf 24
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/solcycle.html
----- Rosen verglich mit dem 1975/76 Bottom,
dann scroll mal runter ( http://www.dxlc.com/solar/solcycle.html)
zum Zyklus 21, Bottom war in 75/76.Zusätzlich:
Das Maximum, Zyklus 16 war im Oktober '29
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/cycl16.html
Das Maximum, Zyklus 23 war in 2000
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/solcycle.html
Die Maxima/Minima der Zyklen dazwischen - sie passen passabel
zu politischen Veränderungen, Krieg/Frieden und umgekehrt, sowie
Veränderungen in den Zins/Inflations-ErwartungenWeiterhin: Seit den 1770ern, seitdem passable Werte für die Sonnen-Zyklen vorliegen, lässt sich ein Longwave-Zyklus a la
Schumpeter (oder ein K-Zyklus, N. Kondratieff) gut mit 5 Sonnen-(aktivitäts)
Zyklen überlappen)Interessant ist hierbei auch noch, dass in den frühen Zeiten der ökonomischen Theorie, langfristige Konjunktur-Zyklen schon einmal
mit langfristigen Wetter-Verhalten/Sonnen-Aktivität verglichen wurden.Siehe:
"History of Economic Thoughts" http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/
suche nach "Climate Theories of the Cycle", speziell nach "Henry Ludwell Moore, 1869-1958."Germoney
P.S. am 18. ist Vollmond, falls wir die $456 vorher "knacken", geht's
womöglich direkt weiter .... -
@ Germoney
Die Raeuber sind meistens vom PPT X(, die soll mal ein Komet treffen.
Danke fuer die Solar Infos die mir neu sind.Manchmal denke ich mir auch wenn alle darauf hindeuten und Astrologisch ebenso, dann sollte man erstmal ein wenig absichern wenn man gerade voll angefahren ist.
Klar im Sommer Juni/Juli ist Gold meistens unten und ab September eine Steigerung, das ist normal und hat nichts damit zu tun IMHOInteressant wird es ab 1.Oktober wie sich Gold verhaelt da kommt eine Planetenstellung dazu die das ganze aendern koennen.
Ich lasse am liebsten das ganze nun laufen bis mitte 2010 und reite alle Wellen mit. Mache Kasse danach und dann ueberlege ich wohin mit dem Papiergeld.
Schauen wir mal was der Vollmond naechste Woche mit POG und POS macht.
Die 456 muss weg ,die muss halten fuer Wochen dann bin ich ueberzeugt es geht auf die 800 USD in den naechsten drei Jahren.
Ja, Sonne , Mond, Planeten, Elliots, Gurus und Analysten, ich werd noch narrisch dabei und folge besser meinen Instinkt wie immer.
Expect the unexpected, vielleicht spielt sich nur das PPT mit den Goldbugs im Moment.
Bis zum naechsten "Washout" und Bulltrap der immer wieder kommt.
Ciao
XAX
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My point in having fun with this is that this is what the Orwellians/PPT/Gold Cartel have done with American investors. They are treating them like they have "chips for brains" (back in the ole days us guys who have used a slightly different slant on the for brains comment). With their massive market rigging operations they have created an illusion that everything is OK … no need to even think, little can go wrong. The PPT crowd will take care of everything.
This is why the cretinous bums are so desperate to keep gold from exploding through $450 and then making 17-year highs. Besides setting off all kinds of bells and whistles and perhaps some derivatives bombs down the road, it will begin to short circuit those "chips." The American investor will see gold exploding and finally realize all is NOT FINE … and then is likely to start reacting accordingly.)
It’s Wednesday morning with The Working Group on Financial Markets going into Greenspan Put operation mode … and doing it in desperado-like fashion. The scenario:
*Gold was due $2 higher, yet came in $4 higher. In 7 years I cannot recall this sort of surprise super strong gold opening during a period when The Gold Cartel was attempting to orchestrate one of their patented moving average liquidation programs. They have defended the $449/$450 level for a reason. They are petrified what an exploding gold price could do to precarious derivatives positions in the US and to real estate related interest rates. Clearly the word has gone out to all cabal operatives to sell bullion at these levels.
*Greenspan meets with the 14 largest credit derivatives players in the US tomorrow. Good timing.
You can be sure gold will be discussed privately and not allowed to be discussed publicly, just like what occurred with the PPT meetings to prevent the LTCM blow-up from contaminating the rest of the financial markets in 1998.*The US retail sales number released at 8:30 was the worst in four years and continues a slew of disappointing economic numbers, calculated BEFORE Katrina. The dollar began to swoon when the PPT sounded their counter-attack bugle. Back up the dollar went.
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we noch kein Heizöl zugekauft hat - Auch GoldBugs mögen es eher warm
im Winter,hier meine Charts für Premium Heizöl/FFm - Raum
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Der fehlt noch,
denn der hat sich auch nicht lumpen lassen!![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude")
Mal sehen, obs nicht etwas zu fix ging! -
Zitat
Original von Aladin
Ich lasse am liebsten das ganze nun laufen bis mitte 2010 und reite alle Wellen mit. Mache Kasse danach und dann ueberlege ich wohin mit dem Papiergeld.
Ja, Sonne , Mond, Planeten, Elliots, Gurus und Analysten, ich werd noch narrisch dabei und folge besser meinen Instinkt wie immer.Hab einfach mal ein paar Sätze rausgestanzt,die gefallen.
Rat einholen,Rat erteilen ist das eine,
aber entscheiden mußt Du immer alleine!
Original Edel ManGrüsse
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Aus 321.gold herausgepickt ,sehr interessant!
Ist allerdings aus einer Quelle, die nicht unser Fall ist!!
Aber immerhin von Bob Moriarty bei sich reingestellt . -
The black and the yellow
http://www.economist.com/agend…tory.cfm?story_id=4398821
So much for black gold. What about the real thing, which fans have been expecting to take off for months, if not years, in tandem with it? After all, the last time oil was on such a ride (in the 1970s), gold tore right along with it, ending up at $850 an ounce in 1980.
Since the second world war, gold bugs say, the prices of oil and gold have followed each other about, give or take the odd lag. An ounce of gold has fetched just over 15 barrels of oil, on average, and whenever that ratio got seriously out of whack one price or the other quickly adjusted. But gold and oil have been drifting apart for at least four years. While oil has blasted up by 60% so far this year, gold has risen only fractionally. These days an ounce of gold, at just under $450, buys a mere seven barrels of oil. In other words, the purchasing power of gold has been badly eroded.
Gold is a strange substance. It is a commodity, an investment and a means of exchange, and its price reflects all those roles.
Like any commodity, it responds to the laws of supply and demand. New figures from the World Gold Council, which groups producers, show that demand for physical gold is growing strongly, up by 21% in tonnage terms during the first half of 2005 compared with the same period a year earlier. Supply, meanwhile, increased less quickly, by just 18%, thanks partly to slowing central-bank sales. Gold supplies are eminently manipulable, however, and if prices rise substantially, a lot more of the stuff will hit the market.
It is from its role as an investment and a means of exchange, though, that gold derives its real mystique. Sentiment is important: in a small market, a few big positions affect prices more than, for example, they could do in the oil market. And that sentiment depends, more than anything, on expectations about inflation and the value of the dollar.
When people believe that paper assets are worth something approaching their face value, they buy gold to wear but not to put in a safe
In the past, gold prices rose with oil prices because inflation did too, and gold was seen as a safe store of value. Yet investors have not really viewed inflation as a threat for a couple of years, continuing to buy shares and houses, for example, in preference to gold despite the huge run-up in crude prices. The notion that higher oil prices will tax growth rather than stoke inflation has gained, dare one say, currency.That idea may itself be taxed by the inflation numbers coming out this week, however. Consumer prices in Britain rose by 2.4% year-on-year in August, the quickest rate of increase since the Bank of England began targeting inflation in 1997. Observers point out that the increased transport and energy costs which produced the hike are not yet being passed through to the final purchaser of goods and services—ie, business margins still have room to shrink. But with the pace of inflation likely to pick up further in September, this is presumably a short-term consolation. America’s consumer-price inflation figures are likely to show something similar later this week.
Just as inflation has, until now, lain low, and gold with it, America’s dollar has also been resisting arrest. Gold is after all a monetary metal, an alternative to the paper currency that replaced it at the heart of the world’s trading system, when times are tough. But they haven’t seemed tough so far. Despite America’s famous twin deficits, everyone else’s currency has been even less appealing, and big exporters such as China have had their own reasons for propping up the dollar. Now, as Katrina heaps billions on a national debt that is already close to $8 trillion, might that perception change? The time is surely not far off.
For at the end of the day, the price of gold reflects confidence, more than anything. When people are confident that their central banks will control inflation while permitting the economy to grow, when they believe that paper assets are worth something approaching their face value, they buy gold to wear but not to put in a safe. Alan Greenspan has achieved the remarkable feat of suspending disbelief in America’s gerrymandered finances for the past few years. On his departure, watch the gold price soar.
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Spot gold touched a high of $450.50 before easing slightly to $449.85/450.35 in afternoon trade, steady from $449.50/450.20 last quoted in New York.
Gold's upside target is last December's peak at $456.75 an ounce. A break above that peak would bring gold to its highest level in 17 years.
"Gold shouldn't have problems reaching $453. But it's very hard to tell when it's going to happen," said one dealer in Singapore, a centre for bullion trading in Southeast Asia.
"Ultimately we will go to the $456. A lot of people appear to have vested interest to bring gold higher. I don't know whether it's going to be a self fulfilling prophecy but everyone knows gold is going to go higher," he said.
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What a pleasure ! :))
Unglaublich was da heute abgeht
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The Hat Trick Letter has benefited handsomely from the energy stock runup. Next it will benefit from the mining stock runup this autumn. My forecast is for the gold price to hit 495 before the sun sets on the month Jan2006, and perhaps flirt with the 500 mark. Proprietary readers can read all about how and why, with the economic, bond, monetary, and international justifications fully analyzed and discussed.
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Dance 457 ?
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Auch Silber bemüht sich!
Genau an dieser Stelle sprachen wir von Deckeln und sich aufbauendem Druck:
Peng!! -
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Zitat
Original von Aladin
Dance 457 ?Aladin, dat Männeken mag ich inzwischen.
Ist das der HUI 160,der was in den Allerwertesten bekam?Oder sieht der schon bald 500$? (nach 457)
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Goldy ist mit Delta und Northwest unterwegs mit Flug Chapter 11 als Guru ohne Teppich HUI 160.
Seine Wetten hat er alle verloren,haette mich echt interessiert in was der eigentlich sein Geld gesteckt hat....in Delta ???
Wird auch mal Zeit, denkt mal wie bloed wir geschaut haben als es auf 428 und 6.65 war.
Now its our time !
For how long, is another question .
Gruss
ein happy Aladin, ich reibe weiter an der Lampe damit das PPT mal eine Lektion bekommt zur Abwechslung.
Meine Bedenken sind in der naechsten Vollmondwoche sowie die Zeit bis 1.Oktober. Der Fed wird sich bestimmt was einfallen lassen, erst nach Alan Greenspan steigt Gold/Silber und holt auf mit Oil und Kupfer.
Ein zu stark steigernte Goldpreis waere er Warnsignal, diese Panik werden sie vermeiden mit weiteren Tricks und Luegen.
Ich denke mir die erhoehen die Zinsen trotz Katrina, sie haben nicht mehr viel Luft und sind in der Zwickmuehle was ihnen Recht geschied. -
Gold expected to rise above $500 by 2006, GFMS predicts
Price driven by demand for jewellery, inflation anxiety
Thursday, September 15, 2005
By IE Staff
The price of gold will exceed US$500 an ounce during the first half of 2006, GFMS Ltd., a London-based precious metals research group predicts.Bullion, which reached a 16-year high of US$458.70 last Dec. 2, rose US$3.70 an ounce yesterday to US$449.80, helping to lift the S&P/TSX gold index 8.09 points to 216.20.
The demand for gold stems from a greater worldwide demand for jewellery, and a desire by investors to hedge against inflation, a weaker U.S. dollar caused by U.S. trade and budget deficits and slower growth globally, GFMS said. The high price of oil and gas is also heightening inflation anxiety, it said.
GFMS forecasts that gold fabrication in jewellery and other industrial uses such as the manufacture of coins will rise by 6.8% this year to a four-year high.
Although the price of gold is up about 7% year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms, the price rise as measured in a number of other currencies such as Indiaýs rupee has been modest, GFMS said. Demand for gold used in jewellery is particularly price sensitive in India.
Demand was strong in India, the Middle East, Turkey and China. Europe was the only major region to see a first-half decline in jewellery demand, mostly because of weaker Italian exports.
However, GFMS said that if its bullish forecast for gold proves to be accurate - it expects bullion could increase to $480 an ounce in the fourth quarter - jewellery fabrication could decline 1% year-over-year.
The low interest rate environment has helped make gold more attractive as an investment, it said.
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Hier wird widerlegt, daß China mehr Silber verkauft als benötigt!
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China a spent force in the Silver Market?
Rhona O'Connell
'15-SEP-05 12:19'LONDON (Mineweb.com) -- Is China a spent force in the silver market?
This was one of the questions posed at the GFMS seminar in London on September 14th. Tim Spencer, the company’s Australian analyst (who, probably still smarting from Australia’s loss of the ashes, had the grace to ask us Brits to treat him gently) presented on the state of the Chinese silver industry and its impact on the rest of the market.
Based on GFMS’s on-the-ground research, Mr. Spencer reported that China was currently responsible for 6% of the world’s silver demand and 12% of its supply – levels that are expected to increase over the next few years as the country continues with its industrial expansion. Demand could well account for approaching 10% of total during this year.
The most interesting area of Chinese influence in the silver market of late has been the level of government sales into the market. Many years ago the yuan was minted from silver and, since demonetisations, the Chinese government has had hefty silver stockpiles (the same also applies to India – for rugby lovers, it may be of interest that the Calcutta Cup, played for annually between England and Scotland, is so-called because it was cast in Calcutta from melted rupees). Over and above the long-standing stockpiles however, GFMS estimates that government stocks were built further during the 1990s, and peaked in 1997. During 1998 some of this silver, rather than being sold off, was shifted to other locations and from 1999 onwards, stocks have been sold down. Sales in 1999 were the largest to date, at almost 2,600 tonnes. To put this into context, global silver demand last year was just over 26,000 tonnes.
Inventories have dropped by an estimated 10,000 tonnes over the past seven years and GFMS doubts that they were much over two to four thousand tonnes by the end of 2004. All other things being equal, stocks would be depleted in perhaps four years’ time. Even this is doubtful as the government, both for economic and strategic reasons, is unlikely to want to run stocks towards zero. This would certainly underpin the fact that, despite comparative price strength, Chinese sales this year have been low (and this of itself has, of course, helped the price).
Consequently, Chinese inventory sales are not the force that they were and are unlikely to become so again in the foreseeable future. Everything else, however, is rather different.
At an industrial level, fabrication demand is expected to rise strongly. Local demand currently accounts for roughly 80% of local mine production, but by the end of the year the country is likely to be a net importer as mine and scrap are unlikely to keep pace with demand. Scrap levels will obviously increase as demand rises, but there is an inevitable time lag. One of the key features here is international involvement; electrical and electronics fabrication, and jewellery manufacture, are growing rapidly not just because of the local economy but also because a number of international manufacturers are setting up shop in China and using local fabricators.
This year China has overtaken Thailand as the largest exporter of jewellery into the United States (and Thailand itself overtook Italy as the leading supplier in 1999). Domestic industrial demand is also growing apace. This year Samsung, for example, has targeted China to be its second largest customer behind Korea.
Domestic demand is expected to become increasingly important, especially contemporary jewellery sales into the younger generation.. Local demand for electrical and electronics is also expected to overtake exports. Industrial offtake in general, however, may slow because of the recent speed of industrial growth and the government’s attempts to engineer a soft landing. The photographic market, as is the case everywhere, is under question as a result of the mushrooming digital market.
Local mine production is difficult to track because of its discrete nature and inconsistent record keeping. GFMS estimates that it was probably in the region of 500 tones in the early 1980s; it had reached 1,494 tonnes by 1999 and 1985 tonnes in 2004. There is good potential for expansion and the group expects production to grow at a “high single digit rate” over the next decade. Exports of mined metal have been growing as a result not only of increasing local production but also the treatment of imported concentrates. Between 1999 and 2003, imports of copper, lead and inc concentrates increased by 115%, 300% and 1,596% respectively ; GFMS estimates that silver contained in these concentrates has risen from 250 tonnes in 1999 to 1,095 tonnes in 2004.
So; Chinese government sales are likely to dry up, which is probably why some observers have been thinking of China as a spent force in the silver market. As with so many other commodities, however, China’s participation in both primary and secondary supply and fabrication demand is growing rapidly and far from being a spent force, it is an increasing vibrant one.
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Dear Members,
Many have been asking for silver. My advice that don't buy silver when gold is going up. We will buy in next week days but till than wait, I will give alert on that. Gold is moving higher but one can book profit at $458 because this week my newsletter predicted trading range was $448 to $458.
If gold is moving up in small good period than one can imagine what will happen when best period will starts from next year.
One must remember next eight days are only good for gold so trade accordingly.
ENJOY DOLLAR UP MOVE. -