Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

PARIS (AFX) - Finance minister Nicolas Sarkozy said it is "natural and normal" for the Bank of France's gold reserves to be used to generate revenues for France.

Responding to questions in parliament, Sarkozy said that if the country sold off the 500 tonnes allowed after agreement with the European Central Bank, it could generate some 200 mln eur in revenues from interest per year.

"Do the maths, its simple: 100 tonnes of gold is close to 1 bln eur. One bln eur is between 35-40 mln eur of revenue per year. 500 tonnes of gold would allow us 200 mln eur in revenues where we have previously had none," Sarkozy told parliament.

Sarkozy also said that the "entire nation" should wonder why the Bank of France's gold reserves are the only form of capital not generating an income.

Bank of France governor Christian Noyer told daily Le Parisien today that he is open to the idea of selling some of the country's gold but said the proceeds would not go directly to the state.

"Sell gold, yes, but... There is no question of selling it to give the money obtained directly to the government," he told the paper.

Proceeds from the sale could be invested, with the accrued interest generating revenue for the Bank of France, which then could be paid as dividends to the state as the shareholder of the central bank, Noyer said.

paris@afxnews.com

ahe/ros/jad/wf

ThaiGuru · 14. April 2004

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http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1081954861.php

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Gold Seeker Special Update – HUI

After a quick sell-off over the last few days, it is important to review the technical damage made, if any. As of the open today, the HUI is finding support at a major uptrend support line, around 207. After a massive run in the HUI over the last year, the INDEX has finally made a consolidation taking it back to the 200 DMA of 209.90.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/goldse…/index_files/image003.png]

Gold, silver, HUI have all made important retracements to support levels. It is important that we hold these supports today and make a reversal higher. Many shares have seen huge declines in the matter of 20%+ so far this week alone. Yet, gold and silver still look as lucrative as ever. These moves are only short-term technical moves shaking out the weak hands. In long-term, secular bull markets in which gold and silver are in, one must buy the weakness and sell into the strength. That has proven to be the most successful trading technique over the past years and simply put, another one is presenting itself again.

Full report available: http://www.gold-seeker.com

ThaiGuru · 14. April 2004

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[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/DailyReckoning/drlogo_black.gif]

http://news.goldseek.com/DailyReckoning/1081959152.php

Snowdrifts of Debt ** Money supply exploding... will the dollar blow up?

By: Bill Bonner, Addison Wiggin & Christopher Mayer, The Daily Reckoning

The Daily Reckoning

London, England

Wednesday, 14 April 2004

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Too good to be good.
Houses soaring...cars zooming...goods flying off the shelves: what are these strange times we're livin' in?
Money supply exploding...will the dollar blow up? Tet Offensive in Iraq? How the gods must howl! And if that isn't enough...there's more!

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Too good to be good.

That was the problem with yesterday's financial news. So many corporations, for example, reported earnings 'greater than expected,' it was almost as if they planned it that way.

We explained a day or two ago how consumer spending seemed to have topped out. Would you hold that item, dear reader? We will use it later.

But yesterday's news brought more evidence that the consumer was still ruining himself - faster than ever. Retail sales rose 1.8% in March. The poor lumpen consumer had no more money to spend - his wages had not gone up, his costs had not gone down - but he spent it anyway.

Where did the money come from? Thank the feds. Like sneaking whiskey into a rehab center, the Fed keeps plying consumers with the one thing they cannot resist: free money.

The Fed's key lending rate is 1% - well below the actual level of consumer price inflation. This is an "emergency" level, we've been told. But as for what the emergency is, the feds keep that to themselves.

Reading the news, we see no emergency at all. Life goes on as always. People borrow. People spend. People go further into debt.

It has to come to an end sometime. We don't know when. What we do know is that it didn't come to an end in March. Instead, the fantasy economy became even more fantastic.

In San Diego, house prices rose more than 16% over a year ago. In LA they were up an incredible 29%. Even in the Baltimore area, the median house sold for 20% more in March than it had a year ago.

This is great news, of course. It means your editor can borrow more money against his house. He is not sure how he will answer the "use of funds" question...or even if the question is still posed to prospective borrowers. But the lure of taking out equity - that is, spending money you never earned - is so strong, he is sure he can think of something.

Alas, good fortune is self-correcting. Yesterday's news was so good, investors were spooked by it. "Now the Fed will have no choice," they said to themselves. "They'll have to raise interest rates...before the election, not after."

The morbid specter of higher rates dropped upon Wall Street like an exhausted zombie. Stocks fell. Gold fell. Bonds fell. Only the dollar rose - in anticipation of higher yields from U.S. dollar holdings.

Isn't it fascinating, dear reader? We mean, the way everything works. Things seem to get better...but only as long as people fear they are getting worse. Then, when the betterness is undeniable...they suddenly get worse. And then it looks as though they were right all along!

No, consumer spending didn't head down in March as we thought it might. Nor did the dollar end its rally. But hold these thoughts, dear reader; we may need them soon.

And now, over to North America, where our U.S.-based colleagues bring you more news:

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Addison Wiggin writing from the mean streets of Baltimore...

- The history of the U.S. credit bubble now stretches back over two decades. And yesterday gave rise to some wacky action in the markets...

- First, some background. As Michael Lewis details brilliantly in his 1988 classic, "Liar's Poker," we owe much of our current dire fiscal situation to two men: Michael Milken of Drexel, and Lewie Ranieri of Salomon Brothers. In the early eighties, these two fellows were responsible for innovations that enabled Johnnie Q. Public to leverage himself with billions of dollars of debt. Using junk bonds (Milken) and mortgage bonds (Ranieri), Wall Street began siphoning off wealth "locked up" in America's great pool of medium and small-cap corporations...and the neighborhoods that housed their employees.

- America never looked back. So doggedly ahead did she forge, that staggering debt loads on the family balance sheet now seem as American as apple pie. The monster these two men helped create has become so big - and so unpredictable - that good news now causes the market to tank.

- "U.S. stocks extended losses Tuesday in afternoon trading," says CBSMarketwatch, "on concern interest rates may rise sooner rather than later after earnings and better-than-expected retail sales suggested the U.S. economy is in robust form."

- We are skeptics, dear reader, and we rarely accept the conventional wisdom. But to suggest that that "stocks extended losses" as a result of the economy's "robust form" sounds like somebody missed the point.

- The point is this: low rates are puffing up the stock market, lifting share prices over and above the true fair value of the assets they represent. When the artificial stimulus is removed...when rates rise, as they must eventually...stocks will fall. Bonds and house prices, too. Both of those markets are trading near all-time highs. And who owns these assets? Johnnie Q., our friendly indebted consumer...

- The precious metal markets were in absolute disarray yesterday. Gold was down over $15 at one point, then bounced back to close at $407. Overnight in London, the barbarous metal continued to sell off, falling an additional $7 to just below $400. Silver got whacked hard, too...dropping 57 cents, or 7.12%, to $7.45 an ounce. Gold stocks were murdered, receiving the double whammy: soft equities and soft metals (To illustrate: Silver Standard dropped 13%, Western Silver 9%, Vista Gold 8%, Goldcorp 6%).

- Conversely, the dollar rallied all the way to a buck eighteen against the euro. The last time the greenback saw this level, November 27, Americans everywhere were comfortably tucking into a steaming plate of turkey and stuffing.

- Our friend Chuck Butler, watching the currency markets on the Everbank Trading desk, summed up yesterday's action nicely: "I'm very confused these days," writes Chuck, "by the rhetoric that comes across the screens and in the market place.

"For instance, this morning...I see a report that says the dollar is gaining VS all currencies on the basis that it is believed CPI will be higher in this morning's report...

"What? Pardon me, but isn't inflation the bane of all currencies? OK, I realize that the traders and investors that wear short-term glasses, are only looking at this as an indication that the Fed would be moving interest rates higher...

"Again though, this is where I get so confused, because with U.S. rates so low, how much higher are interest rates going to have to go to bring U.S. assets up to those offered in Australia, New Zealand, or even the U.K.? And even more important, who among us believes that the U.S. recovery can withstand 200 to 300 BPS of rate hikes in less than a year?

"So, you can see my confusion with the dollar bulls holding the hammer right now..."

- Mainstream stocks fared better, but not well. Like a fainting woman needs a cool rag for her forehead, a glass of water and assistance sitting on a couch, the ailing Dow could use some investor TLC. Instead, it got hammered yesterday...losing 134 points to close at 10,381...and is off another 40 points as we write this morning. The S&P slid 16 points to 1,129, while the Nasdaq shed nearly 2% to close at 2,030.

- The market's sell-offs came despite reports of a 1.8% rise in retail sales, released just moments before the opening bell. Interest-sensitive stocks - banks, utilities and financials - were hit hardest. Meanwhile, government bonds also sold off, predictably; the 10-year Treasury added 11 basis points to yield 4.34%.

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Bill Bonner, back in London...

*** Why are houses rising in price so much? We don't know. But the feds are doing some extraordinary things. The national debt is rising at the rate of $2 billion per day. And the Fed itself has not only left its key lending rate at an extraordinary 1% for almost a year - apparently fighting a battle with an enemy it says doesn't exist - it has also goosed up the money supply to an extent the world has never before seen.

In the last 4 weeks, M-3 has shot up $100 billion. At this rate, a trillion dollars is added to the planet's money supply in a single year. By our calculation, this equals about $10,000 new dollars for every family in America. Hmmm...

*** Colleague Dan Denning ventured the following reflection on M-3's astonishing growth: "My conclusion: Sell bonds. Quickly. Look for the dollar to depreciate against nearly everything."

But the situation is not simple.

"In another scenario," wrote Marc Faber last June in the Gloom Boom & Doom report - as Dan graciously pointed out to us - "asset inflation would spill over into the commodities, goods, and service markets and would be, in my humble opinion, discounted by rising bond yields - and this well in advance of the price inflation showing up in the doctored inflation figures published by the government. The sudden rise in interest rates amid still-benign inflation figures, as published by the Wall Street Journal on its front page, would then prompt Mr. Greenspan, whose habits have changed little since he was a consulting economist for White Weld in the early 1970s, to erroneously believe that the Fed hasn't eased sufficiently. Another tidal wave of liquidity would then be injected into the system in the hope of bringing down rates. But by then the bond and foreign exchange markets would no longer be fooled! A violent downward adjustment in the dollar exchange rate and in bond prices would immediately follow.

"The question, of course, is against what one should expect the U.S. dollar to depreciate, since the Fed can almost force other central banks to ease monetary conditions in concert through a massive dollar magnetization. Such a policy would lower the dollar value so much against other currencies as to create serious economic problems in Europe and Japan (competitive devaluation). In this event, foreign central banks would be compelled to pursue similar monetary policies as the Fed, which would lead to an unprecedented reflation on a global scale.

"However, such concerted global reflation wouldn't necessarily lead to global growth. What it would do is to depreciate all currencies against any hard asset whose supply couldn't be increased at the same rate as Bernanke's 'money printing presses' would turn out additional banknotes and credit.

"In other words, prices of real estate, art, collectibles, coins, jewelry, stocks (but not bonds), and commodities, especially precious metals, would soar for some time...until a major financial reform in the world would lead to a stabilization crisis that would not only pale against the German stabilization crisis of 1923, which produced temporary unemployment of around 30%, but also the Great Depression of the 1930s. (Only in this stabilization crisis should we expect massive deflation.)

"The global reflation that I am talking about could last for several years and, given the way smart operators amassed large fortunes during the German hyperinflation, under this scenario there would be great, although very speculative, investment opportunities.

"Hard assets aside, and emerging market equities, I believe that Japanese stocks would be one of the prime beneficiaries of this (in the long term) financially suicidal central bank policy. In a global reflation, Japanese interest rates would likely rise in percentage terms more than other interest rates around the world, and such a rise would bring about a huge reallocation of financial assets from bonds into equities."

*** Since Dan was in the office, we posed another question: Is what's going on in Iraq at all like the Tet offensive in 1968? And what was the effect of Tet on markets?

"The short answer," he replied: "Tet was a sell signal...even though in military terms, it was a U.S. victory. In that respect, today's situation in Iraq bears looking at.

"The market is overbought. The economy gives conflicting signs of its fundamental health. America finds itself in the midst of another contentious election and another contentious war...just as during and after the Tet Offensive. Fallujah could be a similar sell signal..."

Ed note: For Dan's "long answer" and a more detailed conclusion, see his article on the DR website:

Fallujah - A Sell Signal?

*** George W. Bush appeared on TV last night to reassure the nation. We did not see his address, but the news programs in London reported this morning that he believed he was "making the world a better place."

How the gods must have howled! Was not the world already the way they wanted it? How could a mere mortal improve upon it? Bush might push upon lever A or turn knob B...but how would he know that that would make the world better? Could he see into the future? Would he be able to recognize a better world - even if it came up and bit him on the derrière?

What surprise...what comeuppance...what irony are they preparing for him? Will they punish him now...or advance him just a little more rope, so they can hang him good and high later on? We wonder...

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weiter......

silvo · 14. April 2004

Hallo zusammen! Was Thai., Bognair, Schuldenblase, Kalle14,Magor usw hier ständig reinstellen ist schon sagenhaft und verdient vollstes Lob!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Leider war diese Woche bisher ja extrem beschi...en.

Heute hat sich Mahendra wieder mal gemeldet.
Angeblich hat er bei einem Silber-Kurs von 8,-- zum Verkauf geraten!?!? ?
(Da muß ich was übersehen haben )

Ab Freitag sieht er Gold und Silber wieder steigen, wobei nach seiner Meinug eine 8% ige Schwankung zu berücksichtigen ist.
Den Dollar sieht er gegenüber sämtl. anderen Währungen fallen (Das allerdings schon seit einigen Wochen)

schuldenblase · 14. April 2004

ich lese mahendra ja eigentlich auch gerne.

Aber ich fürchte, seine Astrologie kann uns nur helfen, indem seine von ihm beschworenen Sterne einen klitzekleinen Meteorit genau in die COMEX fallen lassen..

ThaiGuru · 14. April 2004

Der GOLD Verkäufer

Bank of France governor Christian Noyer

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Time is GMT + 8 hours
Posted: 15 April 2004 0031 hrs

Bank of France governor open to gold reserves sale

http://www.channelnewsasia.com…siness/view/80178/1/.html

ThaiGuru · 14. April 2004

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.outlookindia.com/images/logo.gif]

http://www.outlookindia.com/pti_news.asp?id=214888

LD BULLION

NEW DELHI, APR 14 (PTI)

Silver experienced a free fall across the board today in line with a similiar trend in global markets and recorded a historic hefty one-day fall between Rs.1300 and Rs.790 per kilo as stockists off-loaded in a big way to avoid further losses.

The trading sentiment turned so weak that gold also toppled down and closed with a whopping loss between Rs.180 and Rs.110 per ten gram. A moderate support by retail customers and jeweller fabricators for the ongoing marriage season failed to check the falling trend.

Silver was first time lost Rs.1300 at Rs.10,965 per kilo in Chennai followed by a drop of Rs.1000 at Rs.10,890 per kilo in Delhi. It plunged by Rs.800 at Rs.11,100 per kilo in Kolkata while in Mumbai it lost Rs.790 at Rs.11,195 per kilo.

In similiar fashion, gold tumbled in Chennai by Rs.180 at Rs.5920 per ten gram and in Kolkata by Rs.135 at Rs.6035 per ten gram. In Delhi, it dropped by rs.130 at Rs.5925 per ten gram and in Mumbai by Rs.110 at Rs.5930.

The market turned bearish soon after the international markets revealed a roll down in precious metals like silver and gold following strengthening US dollar against the euro and other leading currencies.

The white metal which climbed to multiyear high levels in last few trading sessions and crossed Rs.12,300 per kilo level, a level last seen 17-years ago, attracted fresh liquidations by speculators at prevailing levels. It further influenced the trading sentiment in the asian region.

In overseas markets, gold for immediate delivery was down 10 dollar an ounce at 406.75 in London. It earlier touched 405.17 US dollar, the lowest since March 18. A fall in silver by over one dollar in a day was first time recorded in London markets when it quoted around 7.23 US dollar per troy ounce.

A report yesterday showed US retail spending was the highest in a year, signaling a strengthening economy and gave a push to the dollar against other leading currencies, including the euro. This made the dollar-denominated metals more costly when bought outside the US and discouraged buying.

The dollar's 11 per cent drop against the euro in the past year had helped send gold prices to a 15-year high last month as investors bought the metal to hedge against further dollar declines.

ThaiGuru · 14. April 2004

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ccnmatthews.com/images/ccnlogo.gif]

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0414012n.html

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TSX VENTURE SYMBOL: SEA

APRIL 14, 2004 - 08:00 ET

Seabridge Gold to Begin Trading on AMEX

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - Apr 14, 2004) - Seabridge Gold
reported today that it expects its common shares will begin
trading on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) on Tuesday April
20, 2004 under the symbol SA. The specialist for Seabridge will
be LaBranche & Co. LLC.

Seabridge Gold's common shares will also continue to trade on the
TSX Venture Exchange under its current symbol, SEA.

weiter....

kalle14 · 14. April 2004

Alle,

da wir heute den Dollar haben steigen ,Gold und Silber fallen sehen,
möchte ich nochmals darauf hinweisen,dass

seit dem 02.04.04 FREITAG,als der Goldpreis innerhalb von zwei Minuten
um 10 $ fiel,

1.) Die Zinsen für 10 und 30 jahr. T.Bonds steigen!!!!!

2.)Der Dollar aus seiner Seitwärtsbewegung,in einen Anstieg übergegagen ist!!!

3.) Die Immobilienblase ist geplatzt,der Index ist in freiem Fall!!!

Kann vielleicht jemand den Chart hier reinstellen,beherrsche die Technik nicht

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/industry/bigcharts-com.( IYR)

möchte die Vola bei Gold und Silber besser verstehen

Hoffe eine anregende Diskussion damit loszutreten,der zug fährt ab!!

silvio

danke für Dein Lob,bin leider nur ein kleiner Laie,der sich Mühe gibt.

kalle

ThaiGuru · 14. April 2004

Von wem stammt wohl diese Meldung ursprünglich her?

Jetzt will anscheinend ein amerikanischer Wissenschaftler asiatischer Abstammung das Ei des Kolumbus gefunden haben!

Aufgepasst Investoren, vielleicht fallen ab morgen die Ölpreise ins Bodenlose?

Öl aus Schweine Jauche!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/images/pre3/logoe_news.gif]

http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.php?id=47623

Black Liquid Turns Into Black Gold

14.04.2004 6:32

Yanhui Zhang from the University of Illinois is working on oil refined from pig manure. This oil could be used to heat homes or generate electricity.

The research team has perfected a continuous thermochemical conversion process that uses intense heat and pressure to break down the molecular structure of manure into a form of crude oil.

Yanhui Zhang supposes, that years of research and fine-tuning are ahead before the idea could be commercially viable, but results so far indicate there might be big benefits for farmers and consumers.

"This is making more sense in terms of alternative energy or renewable energy and strategically for reducing our dependency on foreign oil," said Zhang, an associate professor of agricultural and biological engineering. "Definitely, there is potential in the long term."

A similar process is being used at a plant in Carthage, Mo., where tons of turkey entrails, feathers, fat and grease from a nearby Butterball turkey plant are converted into a light crude oil, said spokeswoman for Omaha, the company, which operates the plant in a joint venture with Changing World Technologies of Long Island, N.Y.

Zhang predicted that one day a reactor the size of a home furnace could process the manure generated by 2,000 hogs at a cost of about $10 per barrel.

Big oil refineries are unlikely to purchase crude oil made from converted manure, Zhang said, because they aren't set up to refine it. But the oil could be used to fuel smaller electric or heating plants, or to make plastics, ink or asphalt, he said.

Neftegaz.ru

ThaiGuru · 14. April 2004

Ja noch was, fast hätte ich`s vergessen zu erwähnen.

Schweinefleisch wird Mangelware?

Wer SHORT in Schweinebäuchen ist, sollte vorsichtshalber besser mal glattstellen, da falls die Schweine Jauche zu Öl Meldung zutreffend wäre, damit zu rechnen ist das Schweinebäuche sehr bald, sehr knapp werden könnten, weil die Viecher zukünftig nur noch für`s Pissen benötigt werden, und ihnen der Weg auf die Schlachtbank erpart bleiben dürfte.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

ThaiGuru · 14. April 2004

DJ Precious Metals Index (US)

Best Performing Stocks

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…_ind=PCS&bcind_period=3mo

Spieler0815 · 14. April 2004

schuldenblase und alle:

Ich möchte gerne einmal einige Passagen aus dem von Thaiguru so gelobten Posting von schuldenblase nehmen, um einige Fragen loszuwerden. Denn einiges, so gern ich schuldenblase zustimmen würde, verstehe ich nicht bzw. erscheint mir nicht logisch:

Dort heißt es: Ich kopiere das jetzt extra noch mal ein, damit man nicht zurückscrollen muß:

"Preis-Gestaltung
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wieder einmal wurde uns demonstriert, wie die Preisgestaltung der Edelmetalle organisiert ist:
Der Preis hat NICHTS mit Angebot und Nachfrage nach physischem Metall zu tun.
Der Preis hat NICHTS mit der Nachfrage von Anlegern oder industriellen Verbrauchern zu tun (denn die ist in den letzten Tagen nicht kleiner geworden)
Der Preis hat NICHTS mit verstärktem Angebot seitens der Produzenten zu tun (denn es wird auf absehbare Zeit nicht mehr produziert als bisher) oder mit verstärktem Angebot durch Enthortung (denn zumindest bei Silber gibt es keine Hortungsbestände mehr bei den Zentralbanken etc.)
Der Preis wird einzig und alleine durch Papier-Spielchen an den drei nennswerten Edelmetall-Börsen (New-York, London, Hong-Kong) gebacken.Die Bäcker sind einige wenige Groß-Geldbesitzer (Citibank, HSBC, AIG, Morgan-Stanley, Chase-Manhattan, Deutsche Bank und Konsorten sowie einige Fonds (die wahrschweinlich auch überwiegend diesen Banken gehören).
Durch hin- und herschieben von Milliarden-Beträgen in Long- und Short-Positionen auf dem Papier (bzw. im Computer) wird der Preis nach Belieben festgelegt. So funktioniert das Spiel seit Jahrzehnten.

Es ist eine Illusion zu glauben, die physische Nachfrage oder das physische Angebot hätte bisher etwas mit dem Preis-Fixing zu tun.
Im Gegenteil: Bei Silber besteht seit mindestens 15 Jahren ein Produktions-Defizit, d.h. die Nachfrage - vor allem der industrielle Verbrauch - ist weitaus größer als das Angebot (aus Minenproduktion und Recycling). Dieses Defizit wurde bislang gedeckt durch Aufzehrung von Lagerbeständen (vor allem der Zentralbanken und Metallbörsen). Nun gibt es keine nennenswerten Lagerbestände mehr. Die Zentralbanken haben praktisch kein Silber mehr. Selbst die USA, die vor dem zweiten Weltkrieg den größten Silberschatz der Geschichte besaßen (ca. 6 Milliarden Unzen = ca. 200.000. Tonnen) sind nun blank. Es ist nun schon so weit, daß bei Bestellung und Bezahlung größerer Mengen Silber erhebliche Lieferverzögerungen auftreten.
Das alles hätte in einem freien Martkt schon lange zu massiv steigenden Preisen führen müssen. Man stelle sich eine solche Situation einmal bei Erdöl, Kupfer oder Schweinehälften vor!
(...)
Ich denke, gegen die Silber-Triaden hilft nur eine abolute und grausame Material-Verknappung: durch konsequenten PHYSISCHEN Kauf (auch von uns Klein-Anlegern) und/oder viel wirksamer durch ein Produzenten Kartell."
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Zitatende

Ok, aber wenn nun angeblich die physische Nachfrage so groß wäre, dann müßte der Preis zwangsweise explodieren.
Denn wer bitte zwingt denn zwei Parteien = Silberproduzent und Verbraucher bzw. Käufer, zu dem Preis zu liefern (wenn denn überhaupt etwas da ist), der dort in Amiland auf den Monitoren gemacht wird ???

Guckt doch im Kleinen bei ebay: Dort werden sehr häufig ganz andere Preise erzielt bei Gold und Silber als uns die Monitore vorgaukeln wollen.

Angenommen, ich bin Produzent von Fotofilmen: Ich brauche X Tonne Silber... So: Wenn nun wirklich kein pyhs. Material oder zu wenig Material auf dem Markt wäre (PHYSISCH), dann würden unter den Marktteilnehmern zwangsweise höhere Preise entstehen, jenseits der Zahlen auf dem Monitor unseres PCs.

Ist das nun so oder nicht ? Wird Silber (+Gold) PHYSISCH in größeren Mengen zu den Kursen gehandelt, die auf den Monitoren angegeben sind ???

Kann man dies verläßlich sagen ?

Wenn es tatsächlich ein Defizit gibt, wenn also mehr Leute PHYSISCH Silber in BESITZ haben wollen (zB Fotoindustrie), dann MÜSSTE der Preis ZWANGSLÄUFIG steigen - zumindest der , zu dem real Geschäfte zustande kommen.

Wenn stattdessen Geschäfte zu dem Preis auf den Monitoren zustande kommen, dann ist das für mich ein Zeichen, daß es eben das Defizit nicht gibt.

Also, wo ist mein Gedankenfehler ?? Klärt mich auf.
Wenn ich hier eine Krügerrandmünze habe und 5 Käufer um mich rumstehen, die sie unbedingt haben wollen - ja was: Gucke ich dann auf meinen Monitor und sage: Klar, A , Du hast zuerst gefragt und da der Kurs da drüben in New York bei X Dollar liegt, bekommst Du sie auch für genau X Dollar.

ODER würde ich nicht sagen: Hey, wer will sie haben... A bietet X Dollar, B legt Y Dollar noch oben drauf usw... Der Meistbietende bekommt sie... Das ist dann der reale Marktpreis = der Preis, den ich auf dem Markt real erzielen kann.
Die Spekulanten mit dem Papiersilber haben doch zu 99 Prozent genauso wie die ganzen dummen Käufer von Zertifikaten nie die wirkliche Absicht, das phys. Material liefern zu lassen ! Die hoffen, daß´Silber steigt und daß sie dann einen Gewinn in Dollar oder Euro erzielen.

Nochmals meine Frage: Wenn es WIRKLICh ein phys. Defizit (und zwar ohne Berücksichtigung des Papiersilbers !) geben würde, dann MUSS der Preis für Silber hochgehen. Tut er aber offenbar nicht. Also stimmt doch irgendetwas mit der Berechnung des Defizites nicht.

Was ich nur sagen will: Wie soll den mit Papiersilber der phys. Markt manipuliert werden ??? Wenn weniger phys.Silber da ist, als vom Markt phys.verlangt, dann muß der Preis doch steigen - egal, was die Herren dort in Amiland an ihren Monitoren tun.

Offenbar ist dem aber nicht so.

Spieler, der sich freut, wenn jemand erklären könnte, wo der Denkfehler ist....

ThaiGuru · 14. April 2004

Eine Meldung wie eine Bombe, mit weitreichenden Folgen!

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Rothschild stellt den Handel mit Gold und Silber ein, und verzichtet auf den Vorsitz beim Londoner Preis "Fixing"

Möchte wetten, dass Rothschild durch ganz andere Gründe, die sie uns im Bericht verschweigen, dazu "bewogen" wurde, den Commodities Handel inkl. Gold, und Silber, und was noch viel wichtiger ist, den Sitz beim Goldpreis Fixing (LBMA), den sie bereits über Generationen besassen, jetzt plötzlich so ohne weiteres einfach aufzugeben, und damit ihren direkten Einfluss auf die "Gold-Preis-Gestalltung" zu verlieren.

Wer weiss, vielleicht will Rothschild bereits jetzt schon, nur ganz einfach kein Gold und Silber mehr verkaufen?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://home.businesswire.com/p…0040414005692&newsLang=en

April 14, 2004 12:29 PM US Eastern Timezone

N M Rothschild and Sons UK Regulatory Announcement: Commodities Trading

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--20040414T1629+0000--

Commodities Trading

N M Rothschild & Sons Limited, London announces that it is withdrawing from commodities trading, including gold.

This decision has been taken following a strategic review of the services offered by Rothschild and will result in the withdrawal from commodities sales and trading activities in London.

As part of this decision, Rothschild will be withdrawing from the twice daily London Gold Fixing which it currently Chairs. Discussions are being held with other members of the Fixing to ensure an orderly handover of the Chairmanship.

Rothschild will continue to provide advice, project finance, corporate banking and other services to its Natural Resources and Mining clients around the world.

The London announcement has minimal impact on metals sales and trading services from Rothschild's businesses in Australia and Singapore.

Announcing the decision, David de Rothschild, Chairman of N M Rothschild & Sons Limited, said:

Zitat

"Our income from commodities trading in London, including gold, has fallen as a percentage of our total income in each of the past five years. Following a strategic review of our activities we have concluded that this is no longer a core area of activity and have, therefore, decided to withdraw from the market.

"The sustained growth of the Rothschild Group over the past decade has been a remarkable success story. We remain committed to growing further our activities in specialist commercial banking, private banking & trust services and objective relationship-based investment banking advice."

For further information:

John Antcliffe Smithfield 020 7360 4900

Short Name: N M Rothschild and Sons
Category Code: MSC
Sequence Number: 19271
Time of Receipt (offset from UTC): 20040414T172449+0100

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kalle14 · 14. April 2004

Spieler,

ganz einfach,die Preise werden von Kartellen bestimmt,hast Du doch schon mal gehört " Londoner Fixing",da sitzt eine Gruppe von Bankern,die den Preis fixen,festlegen.Das kann Dir zum Beispiel auch in Deutschland passieren,dass die Bank zwar einen Preis hat,aber kein Material liefern kann.

Ich selbst habe mal einer Sitzung beigewohnt,in der es geheissen hat,
"den jag ich in die Wüste",um Gottes willen.dann haben die innerhalb
einer Woche Sandkappheit",darauf ein anderer

Spieler0815 · 14. April 2004

kalle14... In London sitzt da jetzt eine Gruppe beim Goldfixing, die soeben ein Mitglied verloren hat...
Meine Frage paßt vielleicht ganz gut in diesen Zusammenhang.
Aber das, was Du schreibst, beantwortet die Frage m.E. nicht.

Spieler0815 · 14. April 2004

ThaiGuru:
Kannst Du evt. mal versuchen, aus Deiner Sicht die "weitreichenden Folgen" zu beschreiben und die möglichen Ursachen für den Rückzug noch näher zu beleuchten ?
Spieler

Spieler0815 · 14. April 2004

Kalle nochmals: Willst Du damit sagen, daß an den Preis der "Kartelel" dann alle Goldproduzenten gebunden sind ??
Und beim Silber, worauf sich meine Frage ja hauptsächlichj bezog ??

kalle14 · 15. April 2004

Spieler,

Du scheinst die Funktion der Kartelle nicht zu verstehn,also,da scheinbar keine Lagerbestände in pysischem Silber mehr vorhanden sind,wird eben einfach welches erfunden.Man nimmt ein Stück Papier,und schreibt (nur als Beispiel)1 mio oz Silber,und schon ist wieder welches vorhanden,so einfach ist das.Solltest Du jetzt am Bankschalter stehen,und versuchen Silber zu kaufen,dann muss der Angestellte zu 99% anrufen,und zu 99,5%muss er es bestellen,bei einer grösseren Menge kann es sogar ne Woche dauern,bis er überhaupt weiss,ob er welches geliefert bekommt.Da kannst Du Dich jetzt hinstellen und einen Aufschlag bieten,Du bekommst keins.Es ist kein freier Markt,musst manchmal froh sein überhaupt etwas zu bekommen.Wenn die pysische Nachfrage allerdings steigt,versucht man die anleger zunächst durch
Preiserhöhungen rauszudrücken,funktioniert das nicht setzt man Vola ein.
Man muss die Preise von Gold und Silber aber auch kontrollieren,würde,allein schon durch die Marktenge bei Edelmetallen,der Goldpreis sich über Nacht verdoppeln,würde das Vertrauen in die Papierwährungen zerstört.Gerade deswegen wäre es auch wichtig ,eine Gold gedeckte Währung zu haben.Da es aber nur noch eine Gold gedeckte Währung gibt,den CHF ,steht die Weltwirtschaft vor einem riesigen Scherbenhaufen.

good night Sir

edda

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