Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

[Blockierte Grafik: http://business.iafrica.com/pics/business/iacbanner.gif]

DRD seeks listing in Papua New Guinea

Posted Mon, 10 May 2004

http://business.iafrica.com/news/321418.htm

[Blockierte Grafik: http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/nws/main5.gif]

Kinross Gold reports Q1 profit of US$13.2M, reverses loss of US$12M in '03

http://story.news.yahoo.com/ne…/ca_pr_on_bu/kinross_gold

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ccnmatthews.com/images/ccnlogo.gif]

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www2.cdn-news.com/images/logos/highriver.gif]

High River Gold and Kinross Gold to Suspend Development at the New Britannia Mine

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0510161n.html

UBS, die hatten doch früher (fast) nie Vertrauen in Gold!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/321774.htm

UBS Keeps the faith in gold

By: Stewart Bailey

Posted: '10-MAY-04 20:05' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Undeterred by the smack gold has taken over the past fortnight, UBS Warburg has ratcheted up its long term forecast for the metal, raising the average price forecast for next year by $25/oz, to $455/oz.

The call is a plucky one, given that gold has dropped almost $50/oz, or 13 percent, from its daily average of $426.25/oz at the beginning of April to its current level of around $376/oz. The fall has been caused by the strengthening dollar, pushed higher by growing evidence that the economy is recovering from its slump and the spectre of rising interest rates. UBS, along with a host of commentators, believe that spiralling deficits in the US - which continue to rise unchecked – will lead to a long term weakening of the dollar.

John Reade, UBS Warburg’s gold analyst, said in note released today that the long-term outlook for bullion remained positive, although the climb to its peak would not be as steep as earlier anticipated. Accordingly, Reade revised his earlier forecast average price for this year, to $422/oz from $447/oz previously.

“UBS continues to forecast that gold will trade higher from the current level, however, due to the change in our economists’ forecast for USD/EUR, we now forecast that the peak in gold will occur in the first quarter of 2005, rather than the fourth quarter of 2004,” he said. The peak of $470/oz, Reade believes, will be reached in the first quarter of this year.

The bank reckons the dollar will trade at an average of $1.32 this year, better than the $1.40 it had previously anticipated. The dollar is currently at $1.18, better than the $1.29 low it reached earlier this year.

Reade reckons this latest strengthening of the dollar is merely a “pause for breath” in a weakening trend. “Our economists believe the US dollar has further to fall although they have changed the profile of the USD forecast,” he said.

But it is not the dollar alone that impacts the gold price. Reade says he also watches speculators’ holdings of gold, a useful barometer of bullion’s susceptibility to a crash. One benchmark of speculative activity, the Comex market, recently registered record net long positions – a bet on a rising price - of 22 million ounces. A sell off by those longs, triggered by a dollar-induced fall in the gold price, caused the “first phase sell-off in gold”. The current long position, Reade says, is at about 10 million ounces, about as low as it’s likely to go for the time being.

“The risk of short-term liquidation has passed, we believe and we forecast that the further weakening of the US dollar will see the dollar-denominated gold price rally over the remainder of 2004 and into early 2005,” he said.

There is some support for Reade’s view. GFMS, a market consultancy, has predicted a $450/oz average of this year. Standard Bank, meanwhile, believes that the price will be supported above $370/oz. The bank says, however, that the price will encounter strong resistance at $394/oz.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://images.bloomberg.com/nav/bblogo.gif]

Gold May Rise on Concern Inflation to Accelerate, Survey Shows

http://quote.bloomberg.com/app…d=nifea&&sid=a_k6i.mUbqmk

Die gute Nachricht des Tages für Gold Bugs!

Der DOW sieht sich die 10000 Punkte endlich wieder von unten an!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://images.bloomberg.com/nav/bblogo.gif]

U.S. Stocks Fall, Sending Dow Average Below the 10,000 Level

May 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average below 10,000 for the first time this year, as speculation that the Federal Reserve may increase its benchmark interest rate as soon as next month fueled concern profit growth will slow.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/app…eRE&refer=top_world_news#

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

May 10 - Gold $378.30 down 10 cents - Silver $5.75 up 19 cents

Silver And The Gold Shares Show Signs Of Life

Zitat

"Recent flagrant abuse of the power to wage war by modern-day Presidents, including the most recent episodes in Iraq, Afghanistan and Sudan, should prompt this Congress to revisit this entire issue of war powers. Certain abuses of power are obviously more injurious than others. The use of the FBI and the IRS to illegally monitor and intimidate citizens is a power that should be easy to condemn, and yet it continues to thrive. The illegal and immoral power to create money out of thin air for the purpose of financing a welfare-warfare state serving certain financial interests while causing the harmful business cycle is a process that most in Washington do not understand nor care about. These are ominous powers of great magnitude that were never meant to be permitted under the constitution."Congressman Ron Paul, February 2, 1999

Some wake up call this morning: Gold due $7+ lower. After last week’s debacle, it was a bit much to take. The Nikkei had fallen almost 5%, an enormous drop, and our stock market was expected to come in sharply lower also. For some strange reason, the dollar continues to move higher, which didn’t help our precious metals case in the early going. However, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley showed up as aggressive early buyers (now that they have wiped many of the specs out) and gold ground its way higher in quiet fashion the rest of the day. A well informed little birdie told me a decent amount of the buying was for producers. Gold still couldn’t closer higher, but the unchanged level was a moral victory of sorts compared to where we began the session.

The dollar closed at 91.75, up .44, while the euro fell .37 to 118.44

The gold open interest fell 918 contracts to 253,194.

Word from one of my best sources is that gold demand in London is very brisk. This adds to the very positive physical market demand feedback we keep receiving. A Canadian bullion dealer last week said the gold pipeline was drying up and JB reported this from a London trader in his Friday commentary "… the physical market has been quite good for the last couple of months…It is actually quite hard to get bars in places like India and Dubai, the refineries are working flat out."

I keep hearing how investment manager types can’t understand why gold is doing what it is. They say inflation is really kicking in and point to the bond market as evidence. They figure gold should be rallying in this environment.

They haven’t heard about The Gold Cartel yet.

Silver firmed up immediately after its lower opening and quickly went positive. This extremely oversold market caught bids all session long, with Morgan Stanley the featured buyer.[/size]

The silver open interest fell 1264 contracts to 92,353. It has shed about 20% of its open interest since making those highs above $8 a little over a month ago.

The gold fundamentals are as good as they have ever been. If this technical market onslaught has ended, gold should go right back up again. Same with silver.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

a precarious short (yawn)?

Monday, May 10, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM: $9.74, PM $12.19, with world gold at $375.60 and $371.70. Far above legal import point. Indian markets are currently somewhat confused by the question of whether the pro-Business BJP Government will gain a majority in the Indian Parliament after India’s very protracted election. This caused the rupee to go to a gold import-unhelpful 7 week low today. There is a possibility of a dramatic reversal.

TOCOM met a very much lower world gold price on the opening, (down $9.90!) but also a much weaker yen. Consequently, contrary to some commentators, there seems to have been little selling in Japan - perhaps even some buying. Open interest rose the equivalent of 2,392 Comex contracts on volume equal to 38,076 lots (up 78% on Friday) and the active contract was down only 4 yen, although world gold was down $2.35 from Friday’s NY close. The other precious metals saw minor declines in open interest. (NY on Friday traded 78,248 lots: open interest fell 918 lots.)

Friday clearly saw massive short selling: normally such a large down move would have seen a much larger contraction of open interest. In fact, the spec long position must be now be getting pretty low:

UBS suggests that as of last Tuesday’s CFTC data:

Zitat

"Data released Friday shows that Comex trading speculators cut their gross long positions further …the net long position fell by 2 million ounces to 10.44 Moz roughly in line with our expectations…We now estimate that Comex trading speculators have a net long position somewhere between 8 and 9 million ounces in size, considerably lower than the recent all-time high of 22.5 million ounces."

HSBC amplifies:

Zitat

"In the gold market the total speculative long position fell by 1.2Moz on the week to 8.94Moz, the lowest level since last May. The long liquidation at the end of last week will not show up until the release of this week’s data on Friday. In this respect, however, it should be noted that last Tuesday, the cut-off for the CoTs data, was the peak of the recent price rally up to USD393/oz."

Although it gets very boring saying this, the physical market and the implicit short derived from the Comex data are both suggesting a major rally.

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW pulled another one of its Hail Mary rallies again in the last 20 minutes, storming back 60 off its lows. It was getting pretty ugly going into the last half hour of trading. As is, the DOW fell 127 to 9990. The DOG was clipped for 22 points, falling to 1896.

One broad-looking top formation:

June S&P, which took out its March lows before recovering

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SP/64

This could lead to serious trouble:

WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush plans this week to impose economic sanctions on Syria after accusing it of supporting terrorism and failing to stop guerrillas from entering Iraq, people involved in the deliberations said on Monday….

-END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Federal reserve added $6 Billion in repos today May 10th 2004 in an action that caused the repo pool to rise to $37.67 Billion.

Both operative 30-Day moving averages, the DOW's and the pool's, have momentarily turned flat. I expect this condition to rectify itself by week's end but it bears close watching as ANY shift in the moving averages is significant. Today's DOW weakness combined with the increasing interest rate jitters isn't what the Fed wants to see.

While the repo pool is an assist tool (for the Fed) of proven effectiveness, it hasn't been tested through a crisis such as a sharp rise in long interest rates. With the 10-year at 108.5 and the 30-year yield tracking just above its long term ceiling at 5.4% the Fed is in a danger zone and as such they are vulnerable.

Conflicts

During any struggle, the conflicting parties seek intelligence in order to prevail. Neither side is ever fully aware of the battlefield status of the other until afterwards.

Additionally, it can be said of today's gold war that the attacking longs have time on their side while the defending gold sellers have the high ground but suffer dwindling resources. We can't know how much metal remains to be sold or when the central bank participants will finally realize the cause is lost or even where in the gold cartel's defense walls the first significant break will occur.

What the history of warfare has often proven is that the decisive break will occur when we least expect it.

Mike

The latest GATA news from Russia:

Dear Bill,

I am happy to inform you that GATA's efforts are attracting more and more public attention in Russia.

Take a look at a book on economics published in Moscow this spring (5000 copies).

http://paxamericana.narod.ru/index.html

If you translate this book's name into English you will get something like "The US Dollar Empire Decline".

This book was reviewed in popular business weekly magazine Expert (http://www.expert.ru).

GATA's position is presented in chapter 6.

I have translated this chapter into English using http://www.translate.ru site. The result is below.

The translation program does not know some words so they were transliterated (painted in pink) -- FRS is FED; antitrestovskogo is anti-trust; tsentrobanki -- central banks; pereotsenen -- overpriced; obrushajutsja -- crash; domohozjajstv -- households

You should read PLOT as conspiracy; scedule as graph

Best wishes,
Ivan Rogojkin, Moscow

Sarge reports on the inflation front:

Just went to Kroger to get milk for kids. Was walking down the ice cream freezers isle and saw new notices posted everywhere. In a nutshell Kroger is saying that these are the highest prices (in some cases EVER) paid for milk, butter, ice cream, cheese and other dairy products. They attribute it to a shortage in the supply of milk. They refer you to a website that "explains" everything.

http://www.idfa.org/news/stories/2004/04/milksupply.cfm (interesting short read)

So we are seeing "record high levels" in milk and products prices and this is because of a 1.8% reduction in milk production by farmers in Jan and Feb this year versus the same period last year?? Extrapolate this to the gold and silver markets. The disparity sticks out like an amputated (not just sore) thumb to me. Does it to you? –END-

Inflation is everywhere. From a Reuters release on remodeling costs:

Hourly earnings of U.S. construction workers averaged $19.19 in March, up 2 percent from a year ago, according to the U.S. Labor Department.

In the past year, prices have skyrocketed for the main types of panels used in home construction. The cost of a 4-by-8-foot plywood sheet has doubled to $15.36, while particle board of that size now goes for $15.65 -- nearly three times year-ago levels, said Michael Carliner, an economist at the National Association of Home Builders in Washington.

The cost of framing lumber has risen about 34 percent in the past year to $382 per thousand board feet, and softwood products made from spruce, pine and fir have climbed 58 percent to $378 a thousand board feet, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Collectively, price spikes for wood and metals could add $5,000 to $7,000 to the cost of building an average-sized home, according to Carliner. -END

An interesting read in Barron’s:

J Alfred Greenspan
Barron’s

http://online.wsj.com/article_…aV3mputbXuGa66Cm5,00.html

-END-

Something to ponder:

Bill,

I want to make a comment about the following statement made in Antal Fekete's posting "WHAT GOLD AND SILVER ANALYSTS OVERLOOK"

He refers to the growing naked short position in silver and says:

"One reason why I find the theory of inordinate and growing naked speculative short positions unattractive is because it assumes that the insiders are either stupid or suicidal or both. It is dangerous to underestimate one’s opponents"

I think it is very important to address this because I have heard similar comments from other sources and even from friends and colleagues who like Mr Fekete cite the requirement of people to be either stupid or suicidal to commit errors of judgement that could lead to catastrophic consequences. It is easy to fall into the trap of this argument. Clearly, one has to agree that the likes of JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs are not staffed by stupid or suicidal people and then one has to agree therefore that their precious metals or derivative positions can not possibly pose a systemic risk to the world's financial system.

However, the flaw in the argument is the supposition that stupidity or suicidal tendencies are a prerequisite for monumental mistakes. There is very little historical evidence that catastrophic events have been triggered by the actions of stupid or suicidal people. Let's look at a few:

*The LTCM failure occurred when the market moved against a 1 trillion dollar derivative position that was backed by 4 billion dollars in assets. The LTCM founders were Nobel Prize Laureates! They were neither stupid nor suicidal. Infact the book that has been written about the collapse of LTCM was entitled "When genius failed"!!

* Enron collapsed when an untenable scheme of reporting loans as revenue became public. Enron was not run by stupid or suicidal people.

* The Metallgesellschaft oil derivatives fiasco which cost the company 1.5 Billion dollars was not because the company was run by stupid or suicidal people.

* Barrings Bank was brought down by a huge derivatives gamble on the future direction of the Nikkei. Nick Lesson, nor his supervisors, were neither stupid nor suicidal.

* The USSR collapsed when a hugely inefficient centrally planned economy failed. The USSR was not run by stupid or suicidal people.

* The Titanic was declared "Unsinkable" but ironically sank on its maiden voyage. The ship was not designed by stupid or suicidal people.

* John Law's Missippi scheme failed dramatically. There is no evidence that John Law was either stupid or suicidal.

It is a fact that the bullion banks continue to build their short positions in gold and silver to levels that it would be impossible to deliver against. It is fact that the gold derivatives at these same banks continue to grow while mining company hedges are being reduced. It is fact that some of the same banks have mind-boggling large interest rate derivative positions. What is NOT a fact is that these positions can not bankrupt the entities concerned because the people involved are not stupid or suicidal.

If conclusions are based on a set of incorrect assumptions catastrophies can and will happen. When problems first begin to appear the tendency is for everyone to make decisions which make the problem grow bigger because it is unacceptable for people in positions of power to allow anyone to question the original assumptions...until it is The gold and silver markets and the derivative markets have all the hallmarks of a problem being made a bigger problem in order to avoid admitting that original positions have been built on incorrect assumptions. In highly leveraged markets such action very quickly passes the point of no return. The only thing that then seems to be suicidal to the participants is to STOP adding to ludicrously untenable positions.

Cheers
Adrian

Out of Control:

War tab swamps Bush’s estimate
Spending projection: $150 billion by 2005

URL: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/…004/05/09/MNGOU6IK1J1.DTL

With troop commitments growing, the cost of the war in Iraq could top $150 billion through the next fiscal year — as much as three times what the White House had originally estimated. And, according to congressional researchers and outside budget experts, the war and continuing occupation could total $300 billion over the next decade, making this one of the costliest military campaigns in modern times.

As a measure of the Bush administration’s priorities in the war on terrorism, it has spent about $3 in Iraq for every $1 committed to homeland security, experts say.

That divide may be growing.

The Pentagon says its monthly costs for Operation Iraqi Freedom shot up from $2.7 billion in November to nearly $7 billion in January, the last month for which it has provided figures. Since then, the number of troops has jumped by 20,000 to 135,000, and the bloody insurgency has grown….

–END-

The gold shares finally caught some bids. The XAU gained 1.91 to 79.94 and the HUI rebounded 4.44 to 173.24. The fibonacci 62% retracement close is holding so far. Every gold company in the HUI closed higher with Meridian rallying 4.72% to lead the way. Newmont finished up 92 cents to $36.33.

Have to start somewhere. Too early to tell if the gold share debacle of the last month has ended. Sure hope so. ‘Nuff of that….in it to lose it stuff. Let’s get back to:

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Ed Steer kinda says it all in his reply to Ross's position. Steer is right, the mines have been selling out shareholders by selling real metal into a rigged paper price. None of them, even set aside their own metal as Goldcorp did, but continued to sell it off at below the cost of production.

As Ross states, they sold forward as well to the tune of 300 Moz. The miners are not a bullion investor's friends. Did you know that they are classed as commercials in COMEX? They sell futures too. This is why I don't take a position in them.

Ross says there are 500 Moz of visible stockpiles out there. But these figures are compiled from GFMS, the same bunch that understate the derivatives position in gold and overstate the central bank reserves in gold. Why wouldn't they do the
same in silver? If you check how these guys do their reserve calculations, they list consumption, and list production and when they subtract one from the other to come up with a deficit in silver, they then add a disinvestment number to the supply so that every year supply and demand balance! What they are doing is looking at the paper price (which is down or flat, year after year) and assume that this cannot happen without at least a balance in real supply.

So they make up the difference in supply by an assumption that there is no supply deficit because silver investors are dishoarding into the deficit. Year after year, according to GFMS, there is no deficit because there is no price increase. So they rig the numbers to rationalize the rigged paper price. Everybody lies in the pm market.

Take a look at the gold and silver market behavior over the past several months. They act the same. Sell offs occur at the same time as do spikes up. The degree or intensity differs, but the timing is the same. But these are two different metals with different supply and demand fundamentals. The only way two completely different monetary substances can act the same in the market is if they are being managed by officials who are also monetary rivals. In short, gold and silver act the same because they are both money and are both in competition with paper money at the cusp of a great change in perception. Ross ignores silver as money and treats his product as if it's a mere commodity. It isn't. Silver has been money for five times longer than gold. This is why the rigging is five times as intense with silver as it is with gold. Yes! Five times.

Did you know, that if silver becomes unavailable, industrial production ceases?????? Modern military action ceases?????? This is why the price has been held down too. If the manipulation ends, gold will be $3000 and silver will be $300. Mind you, a cup of coffee will cost $10 and you will be using your pension check pay your hydro bill, but that's the future.

Lest you think Ed Steer and I are being too hard on Ross, I must say that he and other silver mine CEOs are in a difficult position. Not one of them supports Ted Butler. Why, stupidity? If they withhold production, I think their respective national governments would land on them like a ton of bricks. You see, governments, be they Peru, or Canada make a fortune out of fiat money systems, more than they could out of a silver or gold based system. Think about it! Six billion human beings work for pieces of worthless paper instead of a real asset. To keep that scam intact, the powers that be would squash any mine official that tried to elevate silver to its real value. That is because it would expose the real value of paper money. We can't have that, can we? You see, if silver blows up, it will take gold with it.

What happens when the world does run out of silver stockpiles? Then, world monetary interests will face an interesting question. Do we shut down our fiat money system and free its slaves or do we shut down modern industrial society? This question is too big for me to wrap my tiny brain around so I shall just have to leave it hanging out there for the experts.

Regards, Rhody

One Silver Bull

Who's Not Scared

2004-05-06

We’ll let the Warren Buffett piece ride till tomorrow, since I want to get something else of particular interest out to you this evening. I’ve just received an insightful letter from a long-time pen-pal, Karl, who sees bullish parallels between silver’s current, corrective chart pattern and the pattern it traced out between 1974 and 1978 before going parabolic. He writes as follows:

"It's interesting that you talk about all the letters you’ve received concerning a market collapse and the effect it would have on mining stocks. I would submit to you, being the contrarian I am, that the very receipt of so many letters asking that question is evidence that the stock market is nowhere near a high. There are so many things going on in the markets, and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the heavy hand of market influence that is there at each critical point. Yet, there is almost a fanatical disbelief that the market is not being controlled or influenced or colluded on at key moments. Now, THAT I find hard to believe.

Fundamentals Unchanged

"As a bit of a gold bug, I would say that the nothing has changed fundamentally. Yet, there is an almost new mindset that somehow Everything has changed, that the metals and mining shares are in trouble, and that the dollar is set to continue higher. This it may well do, but if it premised solely on higher interest rates, than I would submit to you that the edging up in rates is what kicked off the parabolic rise in the metals in 1978.

"I found a parallel in the Silver chart from Prechter’s book, where he discussed a nine-wave triangle. In July of last year, I wrote about this triangle and about how it seemed that we were in an identical situation. Now, let me ask you a question: If this market (i.e., precious metals and mining shares) were on the verge of a huge move due to myriad of factors, not the least of which is the massive inflation underway while the economy is struggling, wouldn't a vicious washout to make everyone cautious be the very thing one would expect before the PMs begin a real ascent?

Collapse Served Its Purpose

"I think so, and it would have to be convincing. I’ve long expected that, when inflation began to kick into high gear, there would be an event that would make people think they were flat-out wrong and that the bull market was over. That appears to be what is happening now, with mining stocks and metals falling out of bed.

"Now, I could certainly be wrong. And maybe the fundamental picture did change in a two-week time-frame. But that would be hard for me to believe. We needed an event that would shake bulls’ beliefs to the core, and that’s exactly what we’ve gotten. If you go back to the link I posted about silver and its repetition of this triangle, everything is happening right on cue --

including the shakeout that happened after the rise out of the triangle. Granted, it didn't correct as much as now -- but then, the market has never been this heavily manipulated before. Regards, Karl."
aka Kapex

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.aktiencheck.de/images/aktiencheck_1.gif]

http://www.aktiencheck.de/anal…etype=5&AnalysenID=420124

Analysen - Ausland

10.05.2004

Oxus Gold kaufen

Emerging Markets Investor

Die Experten von "Emerging Markets Investor" raten, die Aktie von Oxus Gold (ISIN GB0030632714/ WKN 662578) zu kaufen.

Das Unternehmen welches Gold- und Silberminen in Zentralasien betreibe, werde nach Ansicht der Analysten von RBC Capital den Gewinn in diesem Jahr von 0,8 Mio. USD auf 36,50 Mio. USD steigern. In den nächsten zwei Jahren solle dieser dann schon 116,50 Mio. USD betragen. Das werde das KGV von aktuell 12 auf unter drei sinken lassen.

Daher raten die Wertpapierexperten von "Emerging Markets Investor" zum Kauf der Oxus Gold-Aktie. Anleger sollten den Titel 12 bis 18 Monate liegen lassen und sich dann über dreistellige Kursgewinne freuen.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.busrep.co.za/site/2…es/banner/site_header.gif]

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.…fSectionId=609&fSetId=304

Tuesday 11th May

NUM lashes out at Gold Fields 'racist' policy

May 11, 2004

The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) issued what it termed a "sincere, friendly warning" to mining house Gold Fields yesterday over an alleged "racist" policy. "Gold Fields is the most irresponsible mining house, because it is the one mining house that, at all times, during wage negotiations, brings the whole industry to the brink of a strike. While they want to ensure black mine workers continue to earn meagre wages by adopting a racist low wage policy, they also intend to retrench workers in profitable operations," NUM said yesterday.

Gold Fields' spokesperson, Willie Jacobs, declined to comment on the statement.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/images/gslogo.jpg]

http://news.goldseek.com/Inter…Forecaster/1084287333.php

International Forecaster May, 2004 (#2) - Precious Metals & More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster

THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER

MAY 2004 (#2) Vol. 8 No. 5-2
P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951

E-mail Address

[EMAIL]International_forecaster@yahoo.com [/EMAIL](for correspondence)

[Blockierte Grafik: http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalForecaster/chapman.jpg]

GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

As yields climb, the stock market remains stalled and these are indications that the end of the real estate bubble may have occurred.

The FED is under continual pressure to raise interest rates.

Even if they do raise rates in August you can bet they will create $1 to $2 trillion in aggregates before November and their repo numbers will go sky high. In spite of the continual negative media reporting and outright lies by people like Jeffrey Christian, the fundamentals underlying the primary bullish trends for gold and silver and the primary bearish trend for the dollar has not changed one bit.

Nothing has changed.

The enemy has just gotten away with another major manipulation. All of the negatives that make these metals so attractive are still in place. That is particularly true if the South African miners go on strike or there are mine closures there. That will just add to the supply deficit in gold. The panic we witnessed in the market for gold and silver in April just gives us another great buying opportunity. You buy when the blood is in the streets. You buy them when nobody wants them. In both metals the ultimate prices are determined by supply and demand. Silver has little or no inventory left and central banks are probably looking at 5,000 tons with which to suppress markets. Production is falling and new sources of production are at least three to five years downstream. As copper, lead and zinc production ease so will the supply of silver because that is where 70 to 75% of silver comes from.

Central bank selling cannot destroy the primary trend in gold

all it can do is destroy the underpinnings of each society that sells their most precious asset. If you look back over the last 3-1/2 years you can plainly see gold has persevered and has moved into a bull market in spite of massive gold selling by governments. What governments have done has been a total failure.

The bull market still lives.

They delayed it and for that delay we will be rewarded with much higher prices than we would have had.

This is nothing new, the Fed, Treasury, IMF and other governments did the same thing and we were rewarded with $840 gold. Nothing has changed. It’s just this time we are looking at $3,000 gold.

Gold is the natural antithesis of the dollar the world’s reserve currency. The dollar now near 92 will test 85, 82 and 80. Once 80 is broken the last stop should be at 70 to 72. This will not happen over night and there will be major bear market rallies along the way. Seventy to seventy-two would be a reflection of a normal correction, but today these markets are not normal. They are supercharged and the systemic damage done to the world financial structure is massive, so a fall to 60 is not out of the question. If social disorder were to accompany depression it could get far worse. Mind you, we are looking at several years and that is why the gold and silver bull markets have several more years to run. Mind you, we are not even out of stage one yet. Nobody wants to believe the precious metals are in a bull market. Wait until stage two when investment demand by professionals surges and some of the public gets involved. As stocks, bonds and real estate fall people will be looking for a safe home for their money where they can get a return on investment. Then, of course, there is inflation, war and political instability. This is the 1970s all over again but this time you will witness the death of the dollar and American society as we have known it. Remember in order to compete and survive you must reinvent yourself every day. The older you are the more important it is. As we said last week, privately Sir Alan Greenspan admits inflation is 8%. It will not take long for the markets in gold and silver to project and reflect this in prices. The stock market is priced to perfection; real estate has peaked, as have bonds. Where else do you go but to gold and silver? Three and one-half years ago we predicted perpetual war for perpetual peace to cover-up economic and financial failure and we have it in spades. Whether the elitists like it or not all these problems will lead to investment demand. Those who believe higher interest rates are negative for gold are wrong. As rates have risen in the past gold has had its biggest, strongest rallies. Higher interest rates are a cause of a charging bull market. Rates rise due to negative return caused by inflation. As a result, we recommend numismatic coins and silver bags.

India has witnessed heavy retail purchasing of gold in the past two weeks. In fact, it’s been fabulous. The word is that in just 15 days dealers have done two months business, just as we predicted. Gold demand in Bombay is up 800 to 900 kg a day up from 300 kg a month ago. In Madras demand is up from 125 kg to 350 kg. Pakistani demand is up 70%. In spite of these facts, Reuters and other commentators are saying Indian gold demand is falling, which is the opposite of what is really happening.

The Istanbul Gold Exchange reports that volume was up 24% in April the highest this year and 82% above 4/03. The fifth highest ever volume in nine years.

Most every one we read and hear from believes it will take a long time to repair the damage done to the silver and gold markets. We totally disagree. Those technicians are wrong. Both markets will quickly come back with a vengeance and this time the shares will follow. Nothing has changed – and you can all throw your charts out the window. This is a rigged market fighting fundamentals and we are going to win.

On Tuesday February 3rd we received photos of a fuel tanker filled with $45 million in gold bricks. Why hasn’t the government told us what they did with the gold?

There are now rumors that our government wants to upgrade the monetary status of gold bullion coins in order to confiscate them so that Mr. Bush and his neocons can finance their perpetual wars for perpetual peace, which are a cover for economic and financial calamity. If they do attempt to do this we believe they’ll get about 40% of the coins. Those of you who want to play it safe either move your coins out of the country or bury them or switch to numismatic coins. The government is capable of anything. We’d make moves to protect ourselves.

Last week Diario el Mundo said 16,624,488 ounces of gold is missing from the Central Bank of Spain. Our guess is it was leased. The Spanish Royal Family is part of the black nobility so it figures.

More for subscribers....

Vielleicht möchte der eine, oder andere User, oder Leser dem Gold Cabal ein ganz klein wenig ins Handwerk pfuschen, oder einfach nur am Papier Futures Goldhandel aktiv teilnehmen. Mit den Gold, und Silber Minifutures, angeboten vom "The Chicago Board of Trade", sollte das möglich sein.

Nähere Unterlagen, könnt Ihr unter untenstehendem Link anfordern.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://cbot.mediatwo.net/offer…old_silver_booklet_mh.gif]

http://cbot.mediatwo.net/offer….asp?MT_ID=1_1018_15_3_29

Goldbugs500

Möchte mich ebenso bei Dir bedanken für Deine interessanten, und aktuellen Beiträge, die Du immer wieder uns Lesern, und Gold Bugs zur Verfügung stellst.

Ob nun, Guru, Grünschnabe, König, oder Kaiser spielt eigentlich keine grosse Rolle, wichtig ist nur, dass ich auch, neben den vielen anderen Usern hier im Gold Forum einen Teil dazu beitragen kann, dass die ganzen Geschehnisse einem etwas grösseren Publikum bekannt werden, und nicht immer alles für bare Münze genommen wird, was man in der Presse zum Gold, und Silber lesen kann.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

yoyo

Es gibt vieles was wirtschaftlich keinen Sinn macht!

Für eine Gold Bullion Bank die in Gold selbst Short ist, zum Beispiel bei Gold Lager Stätten Gold ausgeliehen hat, Lieferverpflichtungen gegenüber Zentralbanken eingegangen ist, oder selbst Calls begeben hat, macht es aber schon sehr viel Sinn die Preise nach unten zu bringen, und zu versuchen einen Aufwärtstrend ins Gegenteil zu lenken. Ob die Preismanipulation dann auch wirklich klappt ist eine ganz andere Frage.

Wenn sich Gold Bullion Banken auf dem Papier gegenseitig solange gegen einen starken Kaufsdruck und Aufwärtstrend beim Gold Papier Gold Kontrakte verkaufen, bis der Aufwärtstrend charttechnisch gebrochen wird, und sie bei anderen an der Manipulation nicht beteiligten Teilnehmer Stop Loss Verkäufe auszulösen vermögen, und die Retail Investoren dazu bringen können ebenfalls zu verkaufen, haben sie in mehrfacher Hinsicht, zumindest kurzfrist gewonnen.

1. Die begebenen Cals fallen aus dem Geld, und verfallen wertlos, oder sie sind zumindest viel weniger im Geld, und verursachen bei Verfall weniger Kosten. Vielfach konnten wir beobachten, wie gerade immer wieder kurz vor den Verfalsdaten die Preise massiv unter Druck gerieten.

2. Bei einer bestehenden Verpflichtung physisches Gold zu liefern, z. Bsp. an eine Zentralbank, ist es doch schon sehr sinnvoll, und wirschaftlich dieses Gold wie in meinem Beispiel um 60.- Dollar billiger kaufen zu können.

3. Ein Risiko bei diesen Manipulationen besteht darin, dass wenn die zum Kauf offerierten Papier Gold Kontrakte von Aussenstehenden Käufern, wie zum Bsp. Hedgefonds gekauft werden, anstelle eines am Preismanipulations Schema teilnehmenden Gold Cabal Mitglied.
Aber auch nur im Falle, dass die Rechnung nicht aufgeht, und die Goldpreise trotzdem sofort wieder nach oben steigen. dann entstehen Verluste in *Fiat Money* weil die Cabal fremden Käufer ihre Kontrakte mit Gewinn verkaufen, oder sich bis jetzt wenigstens noch, nur extrem selten, die gekauften Papier Gold Mengen bei Verfall physisch ausliefern lassen. Bin mir aber ganz sicher, dass die Cabal Banken sich auch dieses Risiko irgendwie durch derivative Instrumente absichern lassen, oder was allfällig verlangte physische Auslieferungen anbelangt, Rückendeckung von Zentralbanken, z. Bsp. der FED erhalten.

Die gemeinsame konzertierte Gold Preis Kill Aktion des Gold Cabals war bis jetzt wenigstens erfolgreich. Das Cabal hat mit Sicherheit von den tieferen Edelmetall Preisen profitieren können, und vor allem hat wieder Zeit gewonnen, einen Ausweg zu suchen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru