Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

GO GATA!

It was one of those days. When I turned on my computer this morning, gold was down another $22, so I went back to bed.

The comedy show we call our US financial markets becomes more ridiculous each week.

For some time MIDAS has been pointing out that a desperate Gold Cartel was going after the gold market to flush out specs, so they could cover some of their short positions. If that could not be done, then they would have to cover by driving the price to the moon. I did not think they could win their day by driving the gold price this low. That was wrong.- They did !

It is very clear why Goldman Sachs has been short more than 50,000 contracts on the TOCOM. They patiently waited until the cavalry showed up to bail them out … to at least substantially reduce losses. Little did I realize Goldman would send its own man to the US Treasury to get the job done.

The cavalry showed up as Condo Rice saying the US wanted to talk with Iran. As a result, the gold specs dumped a staggering 22,013 contracts, dropping the open interest on the Comex down to 292,481. And they did so on relatively light volume, only 60,570 contracts.

That liquidation continued today. It appears the Gold Cartel onslaught forced out a number of the new long-term specs like pension funds … probably a number of those who put positions on in the $400’s.

What did Iran have to say about the new US posturing?

06:21 Iran says it will talk to the U.S. regarding its nuclear program, but will not stop uranium enrichment first -- Sky News
The condition to halt enrichment was a condition as part of the U.S. initiative to renew diplomatic efforts. UN Security Council members, along with Germany, are due to meet in Vienna to discuss a package of incentives and threats to present to Iran.

So why didn’t gold rally back up on this news, as the US is back to where it started from as far as Iran is concerned?
Simple … Gold Cartel!
Why didn’t the US stock market take a hit on this news?
Simple … PPT!

It goes like this … from the horse’s mouth:

Bill,

Sometimes, people say more than they intend. Here is a quote from yesterday by Goldman Sachs CEO, and Treasury Secretary Designate, Henry M. Paulson, Jr., "Your (the President's) economic policies have put the American economy on a strong upward path, and I've been pleased to have had a part in working with you to advance those policies." So Goldman Sachs, a private company, has had a role in advancing American policy ?

I wonder what they've been doing, don't you?

Best wishes,

Peter R.

Any more questions?

Silver continues to gyrate violently. Predicting the short-term has been futile. Yet, it ought to be sold out by now. The fundamentals remain extremely positive.

More for the strange category. The silver open interest rose 850 contracts to 110,235.

Other markets:

*The euro was hit hard early, but came storming back. Spot dropped to 127.23, before rebounding to 127.93, down .22.

*Same with the dollar. It rose early but then sank to close up only .09 to 84.74.

*US interest rates fell on weaker than expected US economic news.

Another strange day in the energy sector. Crude was all over the place, closing off 89 cents to $70.40 per barrel. However, gasoline closed up 3 cents and nat gas closed higher too … repeat of yesterday.

*Nat gas looks like it is ready to go on a tear, as per the former war hero Marine, Roger Pruitt, CEO of Sol Cool.

July nat gas

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NG/76

While a horrendous day, gold closed well off its low of $620.40 and silver did the same, climbing back from its low of $11.54.

One of our top European sources called early this afternoon to say a major European bullion bank, who happened to call and catch this correction, says we will not see these low gold prices "for many years to come."

The big hullabaloo on CBNC :D...this morning was highlighting copper going limit down. Yet for all the noise, copper is still $3.47 per pound. That price is phenomenal and one I never thought I would see.

The falling silver stocks have meant nothing thus far. Still it bears further watching …

Hi Bill,

COMEX Silver withdraws slowed to a mere 255,246 ounces on Wednesday. That makes it 11,560,367 ounces withdrawn in the last 6 business days. Also there was a large transfer of Silver from the registered category to eligible in the amount of 3,046,555 ounces.

Regards,

-Bryant

To: Dennis Gartman
From: Bill Murphy

Hi Dennis,

You have become the kiss of death of late going long gold. For the second time in a row The Gold Cartel, which you say does not exit, has buried you … quickly stopping you out of your long positions. Perhaps it is time you reconsider your position on the cabal and their shenanigans.

More gold goodies:

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM ($4.69) PM $2.59) with world gold at $637.50 and $631.70. Seriously below legal import point. This was despite a steadying of the rupee. The Bombay Stock Exchange closed down a further 3.15%, having now lost 21% from its May 11 high. It seems undeniable that this is putting stress on the functioning of the domestic gold market.

Japan was pretty stressed too, with volume leaping 115% to the equivalent of 51,475 Comex lots, and the active contract eventually falling the 60 yen limit, where it closed. Mitsubishi grumbled

"Public Tocom stop loss selling ruined the market."

Their data implies the Public cut 18 tonnes from their long: open interest itself fell only 8.7 tonnes (equivalent to 2,294 Comex contracts). World gold went out at $632.60, $11.80 below both the Japanese open and the NY close: for once pre open ACCESS selling was not a feature.

Why the Japanese public did this, in contrast to their heavy buying seen a couple of weeks ago, is very likely bound up with the near-euphoric reception abroad of the US initiative on Iran. This seems to have had much greater impact overseas than in America. Overseas parties, of course were more scared.

Just how scared is vividly illustrated by the astonishing Turkish imports for May, reported today by the Istanbul Gold Exchange. At 33.475 tonnes, these appear to have been the third highest in the 11 years the IGE reports, 135% higher than April and 45.4% higher than May’05, despite weighted average $US prices being 9.6% and 59.7% higher respectively (and of course being at generational highs).

The only possible explanation for this is geopolitically motivated buying from neighboring states, notably Iraq and Iran. It should be noted that these must have been small buyers – a Central Bank or extremely wealthy individual would surely deal direct in Europe. Those who think peace has broken out in the Middle East will no doubt look for a reversal. Those who do not will expect a resumption.

Yesterday was pretty remarkable in NY too, with an initial rally being routed for a $11.50 loss (on a $21.50 range). Although volume was only 60,570 lots (reportedly) open interest dropped an amazing 22,013 contracts (68.47 tonnes) to 292,481 lots, a level last seen in early September, when gold was $445.

Today’s $15.50 drop, on only slightly more impressive estimated volume of 75,000 saw a notable closing sell-off of over $5, and immediate weakness in the always questionable mid afternoon aftermarket. Opportunistic short selling has probably entered. These actors need continued Indian incapacity and mid -east euphoria.

The WGC’s GLD ETF celebrated these developments by adding 3.09 tonnes yesterday.

Neville Bennett
Christchurch, New Zealand
neville.bennett@canterbury.ac.nz
June 2, 2006

The Economist warns that bears are on the advance. They are haunting the housing market and preparing to predate equities. It is a fine read but NBR readers might regard it short of authoritative analysis. It does not ask "Why are bears preparing for a rampage?"

The starting point for our quest is to ask "why is Wall Street on the defensive?" It looks like a Goldilocks economy, neither too hot nor too cold. But GDP is running at a rate of 5% but there is concern about how growth can be maintained in the face of falling house values, and huge increases in energy and commodity prices.

The focus shifts to inflation and interest rates. The Fed warned earlier this month that higher rates were necessary to compensate for the surge in energy prices. That statement created uncertainty. Were not 16 consecutive raises by the Fed enough? What should an investor do? Should they commit new money to funds or equities, or play safe and let money earn its keep in fixed interest?

Millions of investors faced this crucial question. There will be an answer, of sorts, when the fed reviews rates at its June 28-9 meeting. But until then, it seems probable that Wall Street will vacillate. One day it will be up of good news from one of the market darlings, another day it might retreat on news of productivity data, job growth or whatever. It will worry too about the dollar. It will sometimes get bullish about tax cuts. But it will drift.

The market anticipates that Bernanke will raise rates as part of his mission to support a growing economy while controlling prices. This fear has been increased by the CPI exceeding 3% and core inflation exceeds the 2% comfort zone. Inflation is rising.

This raises concern about the yield curve. It is rather flat, and appears to be flattening as recent market volatility has created a rush for security. Investors world wide have retreated for prime sovereign debt, especially US bonds. The two-year rate is 4.97%, while the 10-year has fallen to 5.05%.

So what happens when the yield curve is so flat? Investors feel something is amiss: long-term yields should be higher to compensate for increased risk. A flat curve is dangerous for banks and other agencies that lend. They usually borrow short term in order to lend long. In these circumstances lending is reduced.

Reduced lending can lead to recessions. Every recession has been preceded by a flat curve. Fortunately, there have been flat curves and no recession.

The yield curve is of concern because the world is still sending massive amounts of capital to the USA. In March (last available data) foreigners bought a net US$89 billion of US securities. Japan holds a massive portfolio of $640 billion and China holds$320 b.

Rising US interest rates have global consequences. The Fed’s base rate is now a robust 5%. This is an attractive yield. Some investors will now increase their exposure to the USA. The rest of the world will find that money is being pulled out of their economies as investors turn their nose up at business that seemed interesting when the Fed’s rate was 2%. There is a massive credit crunch taking place.

It is obvious, for example in Japan where the Bank of Japan has released a massive US$ 13.3b into money markets to try to reduce interest rates. Japan’s tightening interest rate environment is already changing the channels of international capital flows. The IMF has observed it is affecting adversely emerging markets.

Bloomberg have confirmed that emerging market stock have been hammered in May. They were down for 10 days and $5 billion has taken off in capital flight; the worse monthly loss in eight years. India and Russia had to close their bourses. The Saudi market has halved in value since February.

US hedge funds have taken huge hits in the last month because they often had long positions in emerging market equities. The fierce correction has hurt them. Others were long in commodities. Imagine a hedge fund betting that gold would continue to advance by leaps and bounds. So it buys contracts for December or December delivery at $720. Ouch! Gold is at $650 today.

Hedge funds have retreated from what has been a favourite ploy of staging IPO’s in Asia. One casualty is Thai Beverages, Thailand’s biggest brewer and distiller. It had indications that with hedge fund participation it would raise Singapore $@ billion in its float. The Hedge funds pulled out and the IPO raised onlyS$1.4b. Pacific King Shipping pulled out of listing at a very late stage. ING pulled out of an IPO for an equity fund.

There are bears about, and they are thriving on the impact of uncertainty and rising interest rates.

... bin wieder aus Asien zurück!

Habe wohl nicht viel verpasst in den 14 Tagen ohne Gold- und Silberkurse...

Stehe ab jetzt wieder bereit, die Hymne einzuspielen - also bitte anschnallen zum Start

schuldenblase

Jetzt haben wir den Schuldigen

Wenn du nach Asien fliegst dann gehts runter, wenn ich fliege rauf.

Jetzt habe ich eine Schuldenblase.. :D...zum Glueck noch nicht geplatzt.

Also spiel mal die Hymne, wir brauchen Optimismus und Spass beim Stress.

Guten Tag Edel

Viele Analysten sind geteilter Meinung und investieren mit ihren Gewinnen von den PM's nun auf Defensive Stocks wie Gas waerend die Korrektur bei Gold und deren Aktien weiter geht.
Paul van Eeden ist auch so einer der sich raushaelt und weiter zuschaut was die PM's und der PoG macht.

Ich hoerte gerade Lou Paquette auf Gold Radio:

http://www.howestreet.com/gold…/mediaplayer?audio_id=331

Er meint falls der PoG wieder unter die 620 faellt dann liegen die naechsten Supports bei 590 und der letzte bei 540 USD der sicher halten wird.
Er glaubt der Anstieg auf die 637 USD am Freitag war ein ""dead cat bounce"".
Er rechnet und wettet das die 200dma bei heftigen Korrekturen ""wieder immer"" kurz unterbrochen wird was ca. 275 HUI und Gold bei 575 ist.
Bei dem Punkt hupfen dann alle die warten auf den Zug, die Frage bleibt nun offen ob der ueberhaupt erreicht wird.

Im Schnitt sind derartige Korrekturen ca 88 trading days, erst die haelfte der Korrektur ist erreicht von ca. -30% beim HUI.

Ich hoffe er liegt falsch damit, im Grunde genommen kann man gleich eine Muenze werfen ob die Korrektur vorbei ist oder nicht.
Wer konservativ ist der schaut auch zu und laesst die Korrektur zu Ende gehen bis ganz klar bestaetigt ist das sie vorueber ist.

Selbst wenn man dann teurer nachkaufen muss wie Saccard schon gesagt hat.

Ich bin vollstens investiert und gehe das Risiko ein da ich der Meinung bin das die PM Akrien bei HUI 303 ausgeblutet sind.
Eine AUY MNG oder Goldcorp z.B. fuer 28-29 US Dollar ist ein bargain der nicht mehr wieder kommt IMO.
Einen eventuellen weiteren Rueckschlag nehme ich in Kauf.
Ich habe mich jetzt schon eingedeckt mit PM Aktien weil ich weniger Geduld habe als die anderen die hoffen die 200 dma kommen wieder.

Die 150dma hatte wir als der HUI bei 303 war.

Bis spaetestens Ende August sollte sich alles regeln, so oder so.

Gruss

Eldo

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
Moin Eldo

Wirklich wissen tut keiner was.

Was mich im Prinzip recht optimistisch stimmt,sind zwei Dinge:

1.Nahezu unisono ist alles pessimistisch,auch die alten Hasen.

Viel wichtiger: Meine Überzeugung,daß dies derzeit relativ unbedeutende Ereignisse sind,bezogen auf das noch Bevorstehende.
Selbst wenn die 200 EMA´s noch erreicht werden sollten,na und?

Habe mir vogenommen,einige Tage,evtll.Wochen fast überhaupt nichts zu tun und das ebenfalls sehr hohe Engagement zu halten.
Was sowieso eher meine Art ist.Die letzten Wochen wurde umgeschichtet.

Nur nb.:
Habe meine Calls auf Gold und Silber vorgestern stark erhöht.

Grüsse
Edel Man

Alles anzeigen

Richtig, ich versuche das auch.
Edel, falls die 200 dma kommen sollten dann erhoehe ich ebenfalls meine Calls soweit es mein Margin erlaubt. $$$$$
Danke nochmal fuer deine Vorschlaege bei den OS und Aktien.
Lets have a break and watch the ""Endgame"".

Erstmal ist Halbzeit !

Have a nice weekend

Eldo

GO GATA!

The gold fundamentals are a "10" … as good as they get. Points of the day:

*Gold was battered again last evening in Tokyo. That was nothing more than margin call, panicked spec long dumping, as a carry over from the Comex drubbing.

*Gold and silver were very oversold technically and due for a healthy bounce anyway.

*Yesterday’s pronouncement by one of the top European bullion bankers that we will not see gold prices in the $620’s again for many years is likely to prove to be spot on.

*"The CEF premium jumped up to a whopping 13%, highest I've seen it all year. It had plummeted to about 3% a few weeks ago, so I sense that the smart money knows this (as in the shares) that we have roughly bottomed for the year. " Andy.

*The sentiment numbers are astonishingly bullish:

Bill,

Mark Hulbert’s HGNSI index has plunged to an astonishing 1.8%. The bottom is in.

Cheers
Adrian

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story

*The low open interest numbers for both gold and silver are VERY friendly and are further indications of sold out markets. Yesterday the gold OI fell another 5420 contracts to 287,061, which is around 86,000 contracts off its high. The market is washed out from a big picture sense.

The silver open interest dropped 508 contracts to 109,730. Both gold and silver have dropped about the same percentage-wise off their highs. Silver should be washed out too.

*Silver appears to have put in a serious double bottom technically:

Bill,
On April 3, silver bottomed at $11.59. Today it touched $11.60 and turned up. Interesting, isn't it?
Best wishes,
Peter R.

*The outside market action was very gold positive:

*Crude oil has put in a classic rounded bottom and looks ready to take out $75 per barrel. It surged today, up a healthy $1.99 to $72.30 per barrel.

July crude oil
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/76

*The dollar fell .71 to 84.04. The spot euro was up 1 to 129.20, which puts its price at the HIGH for the move, while gold is more than $100 off its high.

*July copper closed at $3.59, up 12 cents per pound. I cling to my notion that the Chinese have tied up metal supply of all kinds. Therefore, the move up in the metals is nowhere near the bubble most think it has been.

*The other base metals such as aluminum, nickel and zinc were all higher. While all have corrected, there is no sign of market collapses.

*The CRB, by much higher energy prices and weather inspired grain/soybean price increases, took off, gaining 6.93 to 350.05. If US weather goes into crop reduction mode and stays there, the CRB should take out its high of 365.40. July beans were up 22 cents to $6.09.

*The geopolitical news was very supportive too:

09:05 Iran will press on with nuclear enrichment -- Reuters
Citing a senior Iranian nuclear official. July WTI $71.21 in overnight session.
* * * * *

What a farce this Condo Rice/US approach to Iran has been. The US knows the one thing the Iranians will not tolerate is an unconditional nuclear enrichment cessation, so that is what they propose and Planet Wall Street jumps up and down. The Iranians’ response today was the same as yesterday’s. They were provoked and they let that be known.

Yet, yesterday the DOW took off. Today this news was blamed for the US stock market going down. More banana head stuff. This was already old news. The real story is the US economy is in trouble and disappointing economic news day after day is not good, no matter how it will affect the Fed’s interest rate decision later this month (more below).

*The yield on the pivotal 10-year T note tanked, dropping to 5%, as did other US interest rates on the lousy US economic news. Lower rates are gold supportive.

*Today’s early run-up and early sharp pullback is typical for markets which are so demoralized due to prior brutalizing downside price action. The good news for gold is it filled its opening gap and turned around. The reason: GOLDMAN SACHS was the featured buyer, along with HSBC.

Later in the day the emotional, or forced, selling dried up and there was little for sale as the day wore on. Funds that came in to buy, were forced to pay up … a good sign.

*The Gold Cartel and other major shorts remain that way. This dip allowed them to do some covering and average down losses with their futures trading, but they have a long way to go in order to extricate them out of their massive positions. That is ahead of us.

*The COT gold report was bullish once again in that it revealed how the specs are running from this market. The large specs reduced longs by 10,772 contracts and reduced shorts by 1,161 contracts. The commercials increased longs by 17,883 contracts, while increasing shorts by 8,189 contracts. It is important to keep in mind this number was of last Tuesday, or before the following shrinking of the OI by 30,000 contracts.

Gold corrected more than $120 off its highs, a correction of that magnitude I did not see coming. No surprise. I have missed the last 6 out of 7 corrections. Having traded commodities for so long, it continues to amaze me how gold is the only market I have ever heard of when the mob (I mean almost everyone) calls for a correction, and it happens. Other markets just do not accommodate herd thinking such as this. Of course, we know why. Other markets don’t have an existing cartel, backed by the US Government, BIS, Bank of England, and IMF working in concert to take the price down.

While always trying to be as helpful to Café members in every way possible, the short-term trading aspect is not what I bring to the gold/silver table. My role is very simple and has been for more than 7 years:

*Exposing the corrupt Gold Cartel.

*Understanding and explaining what their price suppression scheme has meant and what it means for gold prices specifically.

*Highlighting the fact that, as a result of what these bums have done, we are in the midst of a historic market move to the upside … with $3,000 to $5,000 per ounce as a reasonable objective for the price of gold.

*To urge Café members to do their homework (the GATA DVD at http://www.Goldrush21.com) is an absolute must to view and stay the course.

*To be a one trick pony as for as pounding the gold investing table … to assist Café members make a great deal of money and fortunes in some cases.

*So far so good. Since the early days, gold has risen from the $250/$300 level to a high recent of $740 and change. Silver from $3.60 to nearly $15. Gold/silver shares bought for pennies from the get-go are now selling for dollars in many cases.

*The percentage move up in many of the smaller gold and silver shares in the years ahead will be similar to what we have seen over the last five years.

*The dollar gains will be far greater. For those who have found the right smaller gold and silver stocks, you have a bonanza coming of epic proportions.

Bottom line:

*It won’t be long before those following the above program will find their equity in this sector moving into new high ground.

More gold goodies:

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $10.13, PM $2.34, with world gold at $619 and $630.30. Lavishly excessive, and a little narrow for legal imports. The morning value happened to coincide with a the spikedown low for the day’s gold range, but to varying degrees all the importing cities were well able to act, the first time this has been seen for over a month.

The Bombay Stock Exchange managed to rally 3.77% today and the rupee also firmed further, closing 1% above the week’s low.

A return to normal conditions in India could be decisive for the tone of world gold. UBS today supplies an interesting chart (attached plotting Indian gold imports against the 1 year rate of change in world gold (a concept which needs thought).

The outstanding conclusion is the amazing vitality of consumption on even a modest slowdown of the rate of price appreciation. Unless world gold rises rapidly, that is what the dealers will be facing as the summer wears on.

Japan continued to liquidate. On volume equal to a very heavy 71,478 Comex lots (+38.9%) open interest dropped a further 14.8 tonnes (4,769 Comex lot equivalent) – Mitsubishi’s data implies a 10.7 tonne cut in the public’s long. The active contract closed down 14 yen – a recovery from the day’s low 55 yen lower – but world gold went out virtually unchanged from the NY close at $628.40, up $5.80 from the open.

For Japan to exert explicit influence on world gold, as it clearly has done this week, is not common. Usually it is quite brief.

In NY yesterday, gold in fact spent most of the day trying to rally from the initial follow through from the European morning’s slide. On volume of 67,281 lots open interest dropped yet again, by 5,420 lots (16.9 tonnes). Other than August 31 last year it has not been here (287,061) or lower since gold bottomed in the $420s in July- early August. Late July 2005 is also the last time MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus was at last night’s reading of 65%.

The GLD ETF continued to demonstrate independence by reporting a another increase in gold holdings -4.32 tonnes.

Zitat

Original von Edel Man

Nur nb.:
Habe meine Calls auf Gold und Silber vorgestern stark erhöht.

Grüsse
Edel Man

Buenas Dias hocke hier in der heissen Sonne - Hirn mit leichtem Sonnenbrand und einem Internet welches laaaaaaaaaaaaaaahmt bitte kannst Du mir vielleicht einen Gold-Call "vermitteln" etwas längerfristig - habe was von 675 11-07 gelesen - muchas gracias - wenn's geht falls nicht - no pasa nada mit SilberCall bin ich eingedeckt

sol - vino y amor :D......muchos recuerdos y mucha suerte a todo !!!

Adios - linar

Nur eine Idee von mir:

Sentiment Gold mit Goldpreis zum Stichtag sowie das Silberspiel sagen nicht viel aus wie es weiter geht.

Genug diskutiert wie es weiter geht, es ist Zeit fuer eine allgemeine Umfrage. IMO

Ich setzt das auch mal hier rein falls die Umfrage kommt.

Vergessen wir mal alle Analysten und fragen uns nun selber.

Das Ergebniss wird sicherlich interessant.

----------------------------------------

@Moderatoren

Haben wir das Ende der Korrektur der Aktien gesehen die am 11 Mai begann ?
Das waere mal eine Umfrage wert mit einem klaren Nein oder Ja hier im Board.
Unsicher geht auch noch als Antwort.
Die selbe Frage koennte man stellen was den PoG und PoS angeht.

Wuerde mich echt interessieren wie die Umfrage ausgeht.
Bitte alle abstimmen falls so eine Umfrage kommen sollte.
Gewisse Dialoge zwischen einigen Mitgliedern zeigen nicht das Sentiment des ganzen Forums.
Viele wollen sich dazu nicht aeussern, sie sollten zumindest anonym abstimmen bei dieser Umfrage.

Bitte noch rechtzeitig abstimmen bevor der Markt es fuer uns macht.

Danke im vorraus und herzlichen Gruss

Eldo

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
Hallo linar,

Aber hol Dir keinen Sonnenstich!
Viel Spaß ...........

Gucke mal PN

Grüsse
Edel Man

Alles anzeigen

Edel und Eldo (PNs)

den hab isch schon.......muchas gracias

linar

Ein Blitzkoch von Mann..

Enjoy his meal

And who works in the bedroom ??

Mit einen Sonnenstich ?

Da braucht man viel Rotwein, der soll helfen.

linar,
Mahlzeit!
Sonnenstich vergeht, Hunger bleibt!

@.............................
http://www.value-stocks.com/mo…/article.php?storyid=3978

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.value-stocks.com/uploads/img44723cbc29de0.jpg]

Da gibt´s einen interessanten Chart mit einer Frage.:
"Kann es sein, dass die ÖL-Dollars vergoldet werden?"

Antwort darauf: No naa!

Grüße
tschonko

Dave Lewis has served commentary at The Dos Passos
Table entitled, "The limits of finance."

"Henry Paulson's appointment to the position of Treasury Secretary brings yet another Goldman Sachs player

Joshua Bolton was recently made Chief of Staff) to the Bush team.

Upon hearing the news of Paulson's appointment my first thought was that the US has been declared bankrupt and Goldman Sachs has been
appointed receiver."

Always good to read what Dave has to say.

The limits of finance

... Perhaps holders of US debt are getting a bit antsy with the "deficits don't matter" approach of Cheney et. al.

This is to invert the arrow of causation described in most press reports. Rather than thinking the Bush team chose Mr. Paulson, perhaps it was the global financiers, worried about the most recent spike in commodity prices, inter alia, who are driving the changes.

Most press reports suggest that Mr. Paulson will have a much greater voice in policy than his predecessors, which fits with the inverted arrow of causation model. Goldman Sachs will now be driving US financial policy.

Alas, but at least in my view, the problems the US faces are not financial but political, although the political miscalculations have financial repercussions. That is, the corporation that is the US government is not a well run ship that has unfortunately been unable to navigate the financial waters but rather seems to me more and more like one of those never profitable internet companies that were the rage in the late 90s.

The collective sigh of relief press reports describe emanating from Wall St. is to me a sign of confusion as to the power of finance. A well run finance department can extract more profit from an already profitable corporation, and can put off the day of reckoning for a non profitable one but it can't turn the latter into the former.

Moreover, the ability of the financial wizards to obfuscate the underlying financial facts on the ground (think Enron) tends to lead to a reduction in pressure to get the underlying business in shape in much the same way as as an ability to forge a report card tends to lead to a reduction in pressure to actually do well in school. Financial legerdemain then becomes counter productive to the true goal.

And it is the true goal that ultimately matters. In the case of a commercial corporation, the true goal is underlying profitability. In the case of a governmental corporation, the true goal is a sound economy which includes such features as ultimately balanced fiscal and trade accounts.

So, while Mr. Paulson may well be a financial wizard, he will likely not have the answers to the underlying problems of current US policy. He will not be able to help win the wars in either Afghanistan or Iraq and without victory on those fronts, the US will eventually have to deal with the failed experiment in imperialism.

You see, when President Bush says that it is imperative that we win the War on Terror I believe him. The US is, as they say in games of Texas Hold 'em, all in on a hand of military dominance. If the Afghanis and Iraqis prove as tough as the Vietnamese to subdue, the hand the US is playing with will not take the pot. And then the markers will come due, regardless of who runs Treasury.

Dave Lewis

@ Tschonko

Du schreibst im anderen thread:

""Ein weiteres richtungbestimmendes datum ist dann 19.-21.6.""

I think so too ! ;).. ""Cluster"" am 19 Juni gehts ab in den Urlaub fuer fast drei Monate.

ZWILLINGE (21. Mai - 21. Juni)

Abwechslung ist für die Zwillinge der Garant für eine unbeschwerte Woche!
Wer nicht in Urlaub ist, verbringt seine Zeit jetzt gerne Zuhause, und findet in Haus und Garten genügend Beschäftigung.
Zwischendurch aber müssen Sie unbedingt raus gehen, andere Menschen treffen oder einen Überraschungsbesuch starten.
Andernfalls kann die gute Stimmung schnell kippen. Wichtigen Verhandlungen sollten Sie wegen Missverständnissen aus dem Weg gehen.

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK

BEGINNING June 5, 2006

Raymond A. Merriman

Review and Preview:

Hold on to your seat.

Here we go. Friday, June 2 began the first trading day of the third powerful cluster of geocosmic signatures for this year.
The previous two (March 1-17 and April 30-May 10) were extremely dynamic in terms of providing exceptional trading opportunities. Based on the past two trading days (June 1-2), it appears that this current time band will be just as significant.

What happened last week?:

Well, Silver fell to 1155, its lowest level since March, and already down nearly 25% from its 20+year highs of May 11 (prior cluster zone). This is consistent with our forecast for a 111-week cycle trough as discussed in the Forecasts for 2006 book for this time period. Gold is also falling, with the August contract touching 625 on June 1, well off its high of 732 achieved on May 11. On the other hand, the Euro nearby futures raced to its highest level in over a year on Friday, June 2. This too is consistent with our forecast (and special report) that the Euro is in a new 4-year cycle, with a target of at least 1.4000, and possibly even 1.7000 area in the next few several months.

....PS ...just imagine what it does to the PoG !

World equity markets also had an up week last week, as suggested in this column last week. However, the performance leaves a lot of open questions. Although nearly all the indices rose, none of them succeeded in closing above their 25-day moving averages, which leaves open the possibility that this current cluster could still produce a new multi-month low. Once we exceed those moving averages, we can confirm the lows of the past two weeks were primary in nature. But even then, the cluster zone may produce a high from which prices fall sharply into their 4-year cycle troughs, which are still due before the end of this year. And that 4-year cycle trough is still expected to finds these indices off at least 20% from the highs of the year attained in May.

This week, therefore, is very important. Readers should understand that about 70% of the time, the market is in congestion, looking for a reason to trend in one direction or another. Only 30% of the time (approximately) is the trend really clear to most analysts, including me. And this is why astrology is such a valuable tool – it gives us a slight edge in many cases, especially when the trend is unclear (which is most of the time).

Short-Term Geocosmics:

June 4-22 contains seven Level One signatures, the most powerful and consistent correlations to primary or greater cycles in stock indices. That’s a lot in such a short span of time.
Two of them occur this Sunday and Monday, June 4-5.
The first is Venus in waning square to Saturn, which has a 70% correlation to primary or greater cycles within 11 trading days. With this aspect, we like to find markets that make lows close by, for Saturn works best when it correlates with depressed prices, Then, when the aspect passes, prices rise sharply.

The lows we saw in many indices, precious metals, and even currencies in the past two trading days fir this pattern very well.

The other Level One signature is the Sun forming a waxing square to Uranus on Monday, June 5. This is an even more impressive correlation to cycle culminations than the Venus-Saturn square. In this case, primary or greater cycles happen about 82% of the time within 11 trading days. Not only that, but 4% or greater reversals have been noted within 4 trading days in 86% of cases studied. The Sun-Uranus signature is a very volatile one. The nature of Uranus is to either reverse suddenly and without much warning, or to move extremely sharply, well past well defined support or resistance levels. This is the signature that worries me right now with stocks. Because they could not rally above the 25-day moving averages last week, it makes one wonder if they might not suddenly roll right back over again and fall hard into the middle of this June 4-22 cluster zone.

Or, if they rally sharply and close well above the 25-day moving average, we can anticipate the surge will continue into the middle of this time band for a high instead of a low.

It is a case of where we have to let the market tell us what it is going to do, probably early this coming week, as the Sun squares Uranus.

Long-Term Thoughts:.....

http://www.mmacycles.com/artweek.htm

Wer nicht in Urlaub ist, verbringt seine Zeit jetzt gerne Zuhause, und findet in Haus und Garten genügend Beschäftigung.

Zwischendurch aber müssen Sie unbedingt raus gehen, andere Menschen treffen oder einen Überraschungsangriff starten.
Sonst gibts einen "burnout""...und der ist nicht gesund !