Gehen wir Tauben vergiften im Park...

    Im Frühjahr hätte ich ein Vintage Print eines Meisterfotografen von 1948

    mit P. A. vor einem tollen PKW aus der Zeit ersteigern können.

    Das Blatt hatte etliche Randmängel. Das hat mich mehr gestört als

    der Zuschlagpreis von 500€..


    Wahrscheinlich wäre es klüger gewesen trotzdem zuzuschlagen.

    So ergeht´s auch oft mit dem Einkauf von GM-Aktien.


    Bei GM-Aktien und Portraits dürfen Randmängel

    nicht den Ausschlag geben.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://beamovclassics.club.fr/pier_angeli/ltouch_sc6.JPG]

    ANGELI, Pier (1932 - 1971),


    amerik. Filmschauspielerin ital. Herkunft,


    e.U. "Anna Maria Pierangeli", Widmg., O. u. Dat., Rom, 18.11.1950,


    auf frühem Porträtf. (24 x 18, Foto Civirani, Rom, 2 Ränder beschnitten,


    kleinere Gebrauchsspuren);



    (das Auktions-Foto hab ich weggenommen, man weiß in so einem Fall

    nicht, ob irgendjemand Rechte verletzt sieht)

    Nebenan


    Sicherlich haben Sie schon von den alten Tanten gehört


    Und ihrem Tangokonzert mitten in der Nacht.


    Sicherlich glauben Sie, ich hab mir das damals halt so irgendwie ausgedacht


    Und sich nur lustig gemacht mitten in der Nacht.


    Aber eins steht fest: Die alten Tanten, die tanzen noch immer,



    (Österreichischer Kabarettist Georg Kreisler)

    In einem Traditionsauktionshaus in Bonn (inzwischen

    pleite) sah ich Tabakpfeifenköpfe aus Ton schwarz

    geschlämmt. Es handelte sich um typische

    Kamerun-Graslandpfeifenköpfe.

    Anhand der Nr. konnt man im katalog nachlesen:


    Bali usw (Rubrik Indonesien)




    Ein Blick auf die Pfeifen ergab, daß sich daran

    alte Sammler-Aufkleber aus der Zeit der Dt. Kolonien

    im Kamerun hafteten..


    Einer der Stämme im Grasland heißt: Bali


    Was hat das mit GM zu tuen?

    Direkt: nichts

    Indirekt: alles. Selbst denken ist der Schlüssel

    Ostzaun-Gedichte gibt es etliche. Dieses
    ist knapp mittelmäßig. Hab´auf die Schnelle
    keines der Guten gefunden.


    Ostzaun ist die Metapher für den Rückzug
    ins Private und eine spezielle Gattung alter Chinesischer Lyrik.

    Vielleicht verstehen Goldbugs etwas schneller...............



    Mein Haus hab' ich nah bei den Menschen gebaut,


    Und höre doch nichts von Pferden und Wagen.


    Wie dieses wohl möglich ist?


    Hat sich dein Herz von der Welt gelöst,


    Dann wohnst du von selbst in Frieden.



    Am Ostzaun pflücke ich Chrysanthemen,


    Betrachte in Stille die Berge im Süden.


    Erfrischend die Bergluft am Abend,


    Wenn Vogelpaare zum Neste fliegen.


    In all diesen Dingen liegt tiefe Bedeutung;


    Doch will ich sie nennen, so fehlen die Worte.




    (T'ao Ch'ien, 365-427 n. Chr.)

    Whatever it meant to mean is now only - Plunge Protection Team - an entity of the TSY and ESF to manage = manipulate all financial "asset" markets, introduced after the "plunge" of Oct. 1987. It was only a few months after introducing Alan Greenspan as FED Head.


    Nice to see the old guy still performing to his masters voice ... says who-
    maybe cb2 -


    CoBra(too) (7/7/05; 13:59:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 133886)
    On a clear day you can see forever ....
    Contemplating todays Dollar/Gold chart and with it the SM's and Bonds in view of the atrocities in London it becomes clear that there is only one overwhelming strategy.


    No, not the WAT, as was re-indoctrinated at the G8 Meetings - we will not ever budge to terror - and especially not at a time when we hand out some scraps to the poorest countries, we've raped forever and reset the Tokyo climate accords, probably to the worse.


    Oh no, that's not the goal at all. The only goal is to set the globalized world "free" enough to choose and accept the new world order of a pa(u)perized monetary system, ensuring perpetual serfdom to its users, and perpetual power to its usurers.


    All else is written off as collateral damage ... in the quest to keep the system working for another cloudy day ...


    ... Only the spin seems to go on forever ... and ever cb2


    ... Oba hiatzn gemma Taubn vagiftn im Gortn! oda - oida? wos woas denn I ... oba Du moan I wirst es eh bessa wissn?!
    Dammbock oda so a jogdbores wüd- moan I hoit, oda wos moanst is eppa bessa ois a lederna Tambok? Nix für Unguat, ös wor nit eppa bes gmoant, oba konnst ma amoi sign warum Du net den Morgenstern zitierst. Und wann a nit de oide Mechtilde von Lichnovski - de hot schi wos am huat g'hobt!


    PS: Mv.L: Aus Halb und Halb -


    Saure Mienen
    von Sardinen
    kann man sehn
    wenn man zehn
    in Schachtel zwängt, wo sieben liegen.


    PPS: C.Morgenstern -


    Pfeift ein Sturm
    keift ein Wurm
    heulen
    Eulen
    hoch vom Turm?
    Nein!
    Es war des Galgenstrickes
    dickes
    Ende,
    welches ächzte,so als ob,
    im Galopp
    eine müdgehetzte Mähre
    nach dem nächsten Brunnen* lechtze,
    der vielleicht noch ferne wäre ...


    * Free Gold - ist in ähnlicher Position

    die dinger sind so programmiert, dass man Idioten in Serie bringt.
    Und zwar ohne größere Volatilität.


    wenn man 4 eingibt, müsste als Stimme ertönen:
    Vollidiot, aus dir wird nie was!


    Da entsteht nämlich was, wenn das richtige falsch ist.


    Tschonko

    Aus Aljazeera-Online vom 28.07.05
    ===========================


    Yuan float a move towards new currency zone
    ==================================
    By Jude Wanniski



    Thursday 28 July 2005, 1



    To those of us who have followed the mysterious world of floating currencies and exchange rates since President Nixon cut the dollar loose from its gold anchor in 1971, the Bush administration’s pressure on China to break the yuan’s 11-year link to the dollar is one of the most interesting political issues of the year.



    After several months of increasingly shrill complaints from members of Congress about the flood of cheap imports from China and the US trade deficit, China has now taken a major step to complete control over the yuan (renminbi or RMB). Where it had no control of its national currency during the years it totally accepted the Federal Reserve’s management of the dollar through the link, at 8.28 to the dollar, it has now broken free.



    China’s first step was to appreciate the yuan to 8.11 to the dollar; but that from now on will move in one direction or another depending upon its relationship to a basket of currencies of its major trading partners.



    This tiny 2.1% appreciation against the dollar will actually benefit the Chinese economy, because the dollar is now in inflationary terrain, the price of gold being at $425 oz when it should be under $400. The move thus removes that much inflationary pressure from the yuan and reduces the cost of capital for all yuan transaction, foreign and domestic.



    It will not harm the US economy in the least, only benefit China. It is obvious from the shape of the new regime that the People's Bank of China has borrowed an idea from Singapore's central bank, which also manages its currency against an unspecified basket of other currencies - a mystery formula that permits it the greatest freedom in seeking the best "money" for domestic and export purposes.



    Mystery basket



    In a real sense, where American politicians have been accusing China of "manipulating" its currency by rigidly fixing it to the dollar, China can now really "manipulate" behind the curtain of its own mystery basket. In the 27 July Wall Street Journal, the deputy director of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Fang Xinghai, put it this way:



    "China could have implemented the new currency regime without any initial revaluation. But the decision to accompany it with a small revaluation was a clever move that responds to both China's growing external surpluses and American demands for an appreciation in value of the yuan.



    Since the new basket arrangement aims to keep China's nominal effective exchange rate relatively constant, it's quite impossible for the yuan to appreciate against the dollar by the much larger amount that many US politicians have demanded, unless the dollar declines dramatically relative to other major currencies.



    Because the other major central bankers at least keep an eye on the price of gold, for signs of incipient inflations or deflations, it would be "quite impossible" as Fang suggests, for the dollar to decline dramatically against other major currencies unless the dollar/gold price shot up, above $450 oz, heading toward $500.



    Optimum currency area



    This has been exactly the advice China has been getting from Canadian economist Robert Mundell, who spends much of his time in Beijing and has listed a dozen reasons why China should resist a "significant" revaluation of the RMB that have been well-publicized in the Chinese press.



    Because Mundell got his 1999 Nobel Prize in economics for work he did on "optimum currency areas" that led to the creation of the euro, his arguments carry great weight with the People's Bank of China. The fact he is Canadian also helps with the government, which is aware of the American advice to Moscow in 1989, the "shock therapy" that led to the great inflation of the rouble and the break-up of the Soviet federation.



    The idea of an "optimum currency area" or "zone" is that neighbouring countries or those that engage in significant trade with each other benefit enormously from using a common currency-which is the effect when China gives the RMB a value it keeps identical to the dollar. Several other Asian countries have monetary policies that keep their currencies in line with the dollar and, ipso facto the RMB, becoming part of this broad trading zone.



    Malaysia, for one, immediately joined China in revaluing its currency by 2.1%. In that sense, Malaysia clearly signalled that it was joining an RMB zone, moving away from a dollar zone.



    RMB zone



    An RMB zone? Yes. Unless the United States ends its own dollar manipulations, which show up in the serious fluctuations in the dollar/gold price, the Asian economies will almost certainly move toward a Chinese currency umbrella, providing a superior "money" that will end the dollar’s dominance in Asia.



    Money, remember, is not only a medium of exchange to facilitate trade. It is, even more importantly, a unit of account that enables domestic and international producers to draw contracts over time. The superior money is one that holds its value in real terms over the lives of contracts short and long. When a currency fluctuates against gold over time, the costs of doing business increase as interest rates must climb to cover the risk.



    In the United States, my own work shows that between 1945 and 1971, when the dollar was fixed to gold at $35 oz under the 1944 Bretton Woods arrangement, the real economy in the US grew by 4% per year. From 1971 when the dollar was floated to 2004, real growth of the US economy has managed only a pitiful 0.3% per year.



    New Bretton Woods



    Unless these inefficiencies are removed with a new "Bretton Woods arrangement," as Mundell calls it, Beijing, at some point, may decide that the costs of importing inflations and possibly new deflations outweigh the benefits of its imprecise currency zone. The intermediate step it has now taken moves it toward a fixed yuan/gold price. You might easily imagine the implications of this development.



    China’s economy is not yet big enough or secure enough to take on an international banking role, but at current growth rates relative to the US, it could rival the US economy in several years. With a convertible currency in the near future, it could take the next step toward fixing the yuan/gold price instead of importing its monetary policy from one or several other nations.



    It would be natural for Japan to break away from its currency zone with the US and join China's, as its trade with China continues to exceed its trade with the US.



    Malaysia's Mohammed Mahathir had dreamt of pulling Islamic nations out of their dependence on the dollar by joining in a fixed rate system among them, behind a gold dinar. As his success has been limited, it may be that China will get there first. Not this year or even next, but sooner than later.



    Jude Wanniski is a former associate editor of The Wall Street Journal,
    ======================================================
    expert on supply-side economics and founder of Polyconomics, which helps to interpret the impact of political events on financial markets.

    "ein schüchternes Märchen und die alte Leier"


    Überschrift frei ins Dramatische übersetzt


    von tambok



    aus MarketWatch vom 01.08.05

    A cautionary tale and a 'classic script'
    =============================



    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) --






    I've been thinking about this because of China's revaluation of the yuan. Things seem to have quieted down, just as John Dessauer predicted in his Dessauer's Investor's World. (See my July 25 column.)


    In his most recent comments, Dessauer doesn't comment at all about exchange rates -- not unusual for him, despite his letter's international orientation -- and, in his blithely bullish way, has gone back celebrating earnings results and deriding worries about a U.S. housing bubble.


    A be-on-alert view on the greenback comes from the respected Bridgewater Daily Observations, an institutional service put out by Connecticut-based money managers Bridgewater Associates.


    Bridgewater emphasizes that "this is a regime change, not just an exchange-rate change."


    It argues that "due to the Chinese peg, Asian monetary policy has basically been locked into a dollar system. No Asian country wants to lose competitiveness to China."


    China's official removal of the dollar-peg system in favor of a basket of currencies "means that the Asian dollar-based monetary system is about to collapse," Bridgewater warns.


    Bridgewater makes a powerful analogy to the international economic situation in the late 1960s and the early 1970s -- fascinating to me because the resulting disruption, and the discrediting of a conventional wisdom that was at least as entrenched as today's free-market triumphalism, spelled a spectacular boost to the investment-letter industry.


    Japan, Bridgewater says, played the role back then that China fills today:


    "The circumstances were similar -- i.e. a) real per-capita incomes in Japan were very low relative to the U.S. (60%); b) the trade balance/ current account growth rates and investment/ savings were huge, and (c) the Japanese were trying to hold the exchange rate the same via huge bond purchases.


    "The flip side of this is that the U.S. is moving toward a balance-of-payment crisis that is quite similar in its dynamic (although the imbalances are now greater in degree) to the dollar/debt crisis of the early '70s. ... While this process has been, so far, playing out in slow motion, the dollar crisis is unfolding entirely according to the classic script of a pegged currency falling apart."


    One consequence, according to Bridgewater: "substantial adjustments" in U.S. bond yields that "have been held artificially low by the direct influence of central-bank bond purchases and the indirect effect of the China peg on U.S. economic conditions."


    Bridgewater also points out that in the 1970s, U.S. debtors tended to retreat to gold.


    Bottom line: "Even a moderation in [foreign] demand for U.S. assets would lead to a major second wave of weakness in the dollar. Outright selling of U.S. assets (which would force the U.S. to massively cut consumption) could be devastating.


    "We believe the odds of a dollar/U.S. debt crisis in the next 12 months are elevated (say 50%)."


    It puzzles me that so few commentators seem aware of Bridgewater's type of analysis, not just on Wall Street but even among investment letters. An arguable exception: the really hard-core gold bugs who remember the 1970s, like Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell


    On Friday, Russell said: "The U.S. is losing control of its money. The control is gradually and subtly switching to our creditors, the Chinese and the Asians. The direction of the yuan in terms of dollars or dollars in terms of yuan may be the 'next big thing.' "


    Because the downside is huge, any risk of the dollar becoming undermined is worth noting.


    Indeed, Growth Stock Outlook's Charles Allmon said again last week that he thinks price of gold and the Dow Industrials ($DJ: news, chart, profile) could cross again -- say, in the 2,500 range.


    I know, I know -- but it looked improbable before the 1970s currency crisis, too.

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