DER Martin Armstrong Thread

1. The "Panic Phase" (Current: Week 1–2)

We are seeing this right now.

Market Action: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are already showing "modest" pullbacks (0.3%–1% daily), but oil prices have jumped 50% since the start of the conflict.

The Trigger: As of April 13, President Trump’s announcement that the U.S. Navy will begin clearing mines and blockading the strait itself is the immediate catalyst. If this military move fails or results in significant ship losses, the "slow bleed" in the stock market will likely turn into a sharp drop.

2. The "Strategic Reserve" Cushion (Next 2–4 Weeks)

The world isn't out of oil yet, but the clock is ticking.

IEA Intervention: On March 11, IEA members released an unprecedented 400 million barrels from emergency reserves. This is currently "propping up" the market.

The Limit: Economists (notably from Andbank and the Dallas Fed) warn that the global economy can only withstand this shock for another month or two using these reserves.

The "Tank" Point: If the strait remains contested or closed through May 2026, the physical shortage of oil will hit refineries globally. This is when the market usually "front-runs" the disaster, meaning stocks could drop 20%–30% in anticipation of the supply dry-up.

3. The "Stagflation" Collapse (Month 2 and Beyond)

If the closure reaches the 8-week mark without a clear resolution:

Oil Prices: Projections suggest Brent crude could hit $200 per barrel.

Economic Contraction: Global growth would likely drop from 2.5% to -0.5% (recession).

Market Impact: Analysts expect a revision of corporate earnings to zero or negative growth. In this scenario, the S&P 500 could see a 30% correction as valuation multiples compress under high inflation and high interest rates.

Summary of Key Levels

The Bottom Line: You have about 4 to 6 weeks before the "buffer" of global oil reserves is exhausted.

If the U.S. Navy's operation to clear the strait this week is unsuccessful or leads to a wider war, the "tanking" of the markets will accelerate significantly as investors price in a total energy blockade.

Gold an August Low?

Sunday, July 19, 2026 By: Martin Armstrong

Gold remains under pressure in the near term into August, largely because people are NOT

viewing the Iran War as a major geopolitical threat. They seem to buy the press's rendition that Iran

can be easily destroyed and wiped off the face of the planet. The oil market also appears to be

ignoring the Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, illustrating that this is a typical Neonazi

strategy where Zelensky's hatred of the Russian people takes precedence over the long-term safety

of the Ukrainian people.

There is a real danger here that our computer will be correct and the risk of war extends into 2027.

Attacking Russian infrastructure deep inside Russia creates pressure on Putin to retaliate visibly.

Russia’s major missile and drone attack on Kyiv on July 19 followed an intensification of Ukrainian

strikes on Russian oil, maritime and logistical targets, although it is difficult to prove that any

particular Russian barrage was caused exclusively by one Ukrainian attack.

This strategy of Zelensky is highly dangerous because it (1) either forces Putin to get more

aggressive or (2) results in the overthrow of Putin in favor of a Russian hardliner. Russia has turned

to conducting sustained attacks on Ukraine’s electricity, gas, and heating systems just as Zelensky is

trying to do to Russia. Russian strikes have cut Ukrainian domestic gas production sharply and have

left Ukraine preparing for another extremely difficult winter. This does not end well because

Zelensky refuses to allow the ethnic Russians of the Donbas to live in peace separate from the

Ukrainian ethnic hatred of the Russian people. Without the Minsk Agreement simply being

honored, there does not appear to be any resolution.

Putin has been justifying his restraint, arguing that a change in the leadership in Ukraine and the EU

will end this hostility toward Russia and they can return to peaceful coexistence. I admire that

position, but it is unrealistic. The EU needs Russian blood and assets to even survive.I originally thought we would get a bounce from June into August, but the bounce was weak.

Instead of a rally into August, it is smelling more like a decline into early August amid a

convergence of three elections coming to a head in Russia (September), Israel (October), and the

USA (November).

In 2019, I wrote: "Consequently, this World War III is more likely to be a combination of class

warfare and settling old scores." The year 2026 is a Panic Cycle in international war. A Panic Cycletypically moves to the extremes in both directions. We moved toward peace, and as that declines,

we flip and become more aggressive. So far, we have followed that pattern.

In September, we have the Russian Duma elections. This holds the risk of putting pressure on Putin

to either get aggressive or step aside. Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russia is doing

more than just destroying Russian energy/military targets. After months of increasingly frequent

attacks against Russian oil infrastructure, ports, logistics hubs, and other military sites, Zelensky is

undermining one of President Vladimir Putin’s greatest promises to the Russian people: that they

could live their lives untouched by the “special military operation.”

Former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov has publicly stated that Ukraine’s ability to push

back after four and a half years of fighting represents a “significant change” in the conflict - and one

that could ultimately force the Kremlin to respond with a serious new escalation. The Kremlin has

changed the definition of this action from a “special military operation” to Russia is now at war

with Ukraine. The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has publicly stated that the ”special military

operation” had become “a real war” and blamed Western countries backing Ukraine for the

supposed shift. He said:

“There is a war going on, this is a real war. Do you know why it’s a war? Because it all started as a

special military operation. It continues as a war because behind Kyiv stand Berlin, Paris, The

Hague, Oslo, and, unfortunately, Washington.”The West wants this war. Zelensky was told to keep fighting to kill as many Russians as possible.

Johnson has flown to Ukraine numerous times to prevent peace. He flew there to instruct Zelensky

to go to the White House and embarrass Trump publicly to try to keep the money flowing to fund

Europe's war.

McCain was at Maidan encouraging a revolution and that the United States would stand behind

them. Can you imagine if a Russian addressed the crowd on January 6th, encouraging them to

overthrow the government? The Neocons have used Ukraine for their purpose to wage war against

Russia, and they never cared about the Ukrainian people or their country.In January 2017, Senators Graham and McCain jointly announced that they would introduce a

bipartisan bill to impose additional sanctions on Russia. This was a direct response to Russia's

alleged hacking and interference in the U.S. presidential election. This action placed them in direct

opposition to President-elect Donald Trump, who at the time was seeking a more conciliatory

approach to U.S.-Russia relations. Senator Graham explicitly stated that the proposed sanctions

were designed to target Russia's most vulnerable financial and energy sectors.

The Inspector General’s report on the FBI’s investigation into Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign also

proved John McCain was feeding info to Comey to stop Trump and any peace with Russia. McCain

provided the FBI the Christopher Steele dossier, which was funded by Hillary and proven to be

fake. It was that report which McCain received from Hillary that was then used before the Foreign

Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court by the FBI to obtain the wiretap on former Donald

Trump campaign official Carter Page. This was even AFTER the Department of Justice found no

probable cause for the wiretap.

Hopefully, if there is a God, Lindsey Graham is locked up in hell for eternity. I never met such a

vile piece of shit with no regard for humanity other than John McCain. It was Lindsey Graham whoactually cheered that the Ukrainians would fight to the last person. Graham said during a 2023 visit

to Kiev:

"The Russians are dying. This is the best money we've ever

spent."

His rhetoric has always been for world domination and the total destruction of Russia. The Pax

Romana is a roughly 200-year period in ancient Rome identified as a golden age of increased and

sustained Roman imperialism and prosperity and stability. That was accomplished not by ruthless

power and sanctions that never work, but by economic INCLUSIONISM. When people benefit

from trade, that promotes peace. This raw hatred of people like McCain and Graham promotes

death and endless war. They are no different from the worst of the worst. They followed the same

path as Hitler: ethnic hatred, and peace is attainable ONLY by eliminating all opponents by force.

The British Neocon, Boris Johnson, is another vile curse upon humanity. For whatever reason, he

decided to wage war against Russia from the outset. His personal hatred of the Russian people will

not only sacrifice Ukrainian people, but he is also willing to sacrifice British and European lives

just so he can feel victory in this chess game he has turned into a blood sport.They appear to be degenerate psychopaths with no regard for human life but their own. However,

clinical psychopathy is defined by a specific set of traits: a profound lack of empathy, grandiosity,

manipulativeness, impulsivity, and shallow emotions. While these traits can certainly appear in

politics, most leaders who advocate for war do not fit this profile. In fact, psychopaths are typically

too impulsive and incapable of long-term strategic planning to successfully navigate the complex

bureaucratic and diplomatic machinery required to launch a major war. These characters seem

to genuinely believe in a "manifest destiny," the spread of their political ideology (e.g.,

communism, democracy, or religious caliphates), or the "civilizing" of other nations. They are often

true believers who see war as a moral or historical necessity, not a sadistic game.

The uncomfortable reality in Washington is that every politician knows exactly how powerful the

pro-Israel lobbying network has become. AIPAC has spent decades directing enormous sums into

congressional races. Politicians on both sides of the aisle understand the consequences of crossing

that machine. Whether one supports Israel or not, pretending this influence does not exist is absurd.

Netanyahu has been manipulating American military power exactly as Boris Johnson and Zelensky.I tend to believe that these people are sick. They adopted this "manifest destiny," following

Khruschchev's boast that we will bury you, which was a view that communism would defeat

capitalism. They got their backs up and took the position that they would spread capitalism and

democracy to the world, also by sheer force.Technically, a break below 3883 could trigger a test of 3500. We expect the volatility to rise for the

next three weeks. A break to new lows will point to a low in August during the week of August 3rd,

where we also have a Panic Cycle. The wildcard remains Ukraine vs Russia, not the Middle East.