Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

    Irgendwie schon irrational. HUI -6%, Dow und Dax drehen ins Plus.


    Wetten da wurde jede Menge Rohstoff-Kohle in Aktien umgeschichtet?


    Vom Regen in die Traufe würde ich da sagen.


    Der HUI mag ja auf 220 gehen, vielleicht. Kurz und schmerzlos. Bei den Aktien wird es länger dauern, so 2 bis 3 Jahre. Dow -20 bis -30% für den Anfang, S&P etwas mehr. In Japan vielleicht -50% und in Deutschland -50% und mehr.


    Gruß
    S.


    Das ist es, die Fiat-Berge müssen irgendwo investiert werden und wandern jetzt nolens volens wieder in den Aktienmarkt. Wohin mit den Bergen von Papier?
    Die Rohstoffe waren die vorletzte Blase, die letzte werden die Edelmetalle sein...


    Dann werden die Märkte crashen, aber Gold einfach nicht mitmachen ...

    Ich vermute das man durch Reden von ""Experten"" das eine schwache Wirtschaft dazu fuehrt das Rohstoffe fallen.
    Man vergisst einiges der Boom und Asien & India und Arab Laender weiter geht und die Rohstoffe und Hightech brauchen.Dort geht die Post ab und geben denen dann Fiat zurueck. :D
    In Quatar wo 15% der Weltgas Reserven liegen wird alleine pro Jahr 20 Mrd USD investiert. Viele Oil/Gas Firmen sind schon unten. :D
    USA hat seit 9/11 alleine 160 Mrd USD fuer Homeland Security ausgegeben und heute will man schon gar nicht mehr in der US fliegen, man zahlt diese Security aus eigener Tasche mit Airport Tax.


    Naja,........die Iran Story heute ....Oil und Gas haelt sich super, es wird bald steigen und Gold auf die Beine helfen IMO.
    Egal, die freuen sich nun ueber solche Spotpreise und werden somit das Fiatgeld wieder los. Die machen das still und heimlich, darum stuerzen die Rohstoffe nicht so einfach wie sich manche Trottel vorstellen.


    Its all distraction @Planet Media ;)...just show me where ?(

    Es gibt ja noch die Immo-Bubble.


    50% aller haushalte besitzen Aktien, 67% Immobilien. Also min. 17% beides. In der Realität wohl eher 40-50%, ein Großteil besitzt eben gar nichts.


    Wenn's da kracht wirkt das wie ein Staubsauger, dann wird das Geld einfach durch Pleiten vernichtet.


    Die banken haben schön alle ARMs bereits jetzt als Umsatz gebucht und so tolle gewinne ausgewiesen. Das Risiko tragen meist irgendwelche Pensionskassen, die die Hausschulden als Bonds gekauft haben.


    Immos krachen, hausbesitzer müssen Aktien verkaufen, Pensionskassen machen Verluste mit Immo-Kreditbonds und die Firmen müssen Geld in die Pensionskassen nachschießen wodurch die Gewinne fallen.


    Also nichts mit Edelmetallblase, so schnell jedenfalls.


    Wenn's deflationär wird und kracht sinken natürlich die Renditen. Aber die Risikoaufschläge für schlechte Schuldner (im Extremfall alle außer Staat) werden steigen. Im Extremfall kann die FED die Zinsen auf 0% senken und die mortgage rates könnten trotzdem steigen.
    Da Gold keinen Schuldner hat, ist es de facto besser als inflationsgesicherte Staatsanleihen. Wenn es so steigt wie gute Anleihen, könnte sich der Wert verdoppeln (wobei der Preis jetzt bei 590 steht, wo der "innere" Wert steht - keine Ahnung).


    Gruß
    S.

    Kommentar von Bill Cara aus seinem Blog:


    Gold (Dec) is down $26 to $591 today. But traders who figure that gold is the problem had better check the whole market.


    What is happening today around the world is that the equity Bear is in full motion. Nothing has changed from my continual forecast of a much lower U.S. equity market. The equity market is unfolding as I thought it would for the reasons I have consistently expressed here.


    What is different, and perplexes me, is that the $USD has gained much strength, and that commodity prices (oils and metals) are falling so quickly. While I did note about ten days ago that the $CRB had broken down technically, I am surprised at the rapidity of the move, and with it the depth to which precious metals have fallen.


    I suspect that hedge funds and momentum traders are playing this commodity sell-off move with a $USD hedge. Unfortunately, the speculation that took oil to 80 and gold to 730 could drive oil to 55 (-31.3 pct) and gold to 540 (-26 pct). X(


    I don’t know the extent of the decline, but I do know that at the present level, gold is a bargain, and for every $10 lower it goes, it will be a bigger bargain. :]


    If the commodities Bear phase continues at this pace, and works through to the levels noted, then there is no doubt in my mind that the economy is headed for a hard landing, many hedge funds will collapse, and corporate earnings will be quickly turned to losses in some cases, and major disappointments in others. 8o


    In that event, I do see the worst case Dow = 8800 forecast I made early in the year to be the most probable result.


    But, and this is critical, the problems with the U.S. twin deficits continues, and the only way out of this stagflation mess is for the Treasury/Fed to reflate, which is the same solution that central bankers took in the mid-70’s (the last time stagflation existed).


    And we all by now recall what happened to gold at that point. It traded wildly both up and down, but went on to set a record high that was close to $800. In inflation-adjusted terms, a comparable gold price in the next Bull cycle would be much higher than any gold price I have forecasted here.


    Why I am writing this, at this point, is to remind you that the past year corporate financing market has resulted in almost all gold companies, including explorers and even penny stocks, to be debt-free and cash-rich. The properties these companies control and are presently exploring will result in new discoveries and much market promotion in the future. The lower energy costs, if sustainable, will result in lower production costs.


    And when you look at the current cash operating costs of companies like Goldcorp and potentially with Crystallex, and you look at a gold price of $540, you have to smile.


    Then you consider what the profitability will be with the gold price at $700-$850-$1000-$2000, and you can only conclude that the present price pull-back is resulting in the Buy of the Generation.


    Unlike the Internet Bubble of 2000 when debt-laden corporate shells were trading at billion dollar market caps, these precious metal miners are cash and property rich and can immediately sell their production. They can easily withstand ANY price that precious metals are going to reach in the Bear phase of the current cycle.


    Today is a day when you should be making plans to attend gold shows in Toronto and Denver on the 24th-25th of this month. That will present you an opportunity to meet the management of the companies you might wish to be investing in.


    If you can’t attend and see for yourself that lower gold prices do not present a deterent to these companies, then go to their websites and read the literature.


    I’m going to organize a group of readers who wish to collaborate on research of the micro and small cap precious metal exploration and development companies. There is so much data out there that one person operating independently couldn’t possibly do it all. But together, we can do what’s needed. Whoever wishes to join such a group, send me an e-mail marked “Micro-cap precious metals”.


    We can have our first info meeting at the Toronto Gold Show on Sept. 24.


    Gruss

    Es ist noch kein Verschwörungstheoretiker vom Himmel gefallen.
    - Altes Sprichwort, neu übersetzt

    Die sind schon Gemein, an Onkel Harry Schultz Geburtstag den PoG zu pruegeln macht ihm bestimmt keine Freude. :(


    @ Vanescent ;) ;)..ja so schauts aus.


    What is different, and perplexes me, is that the $USD has gained much strength, and that commodity prices (oils and metals) are falling so quickly


    Bei CNBC Herr Hefti von UBS sagte gerade das ist Bullshit das der Bedarf an Energy faellt....


    Im Gegenteil !!


    So jetzt einen doppelten Whiskey, I call it a day.


    Die Shorties kriegen schon was sie verdienen eines Tages.


    Gnight


    Eldo

    @Eldo, noch ne Fortsetzung...


    Ich möchte noch einen weiteren Auszug von Bill Cara aus seinem heutigen Blog zitieren
    (Mann, der schreibt sich ja die Finger wund... :D )


    In diesem Auszug erwähnt er auch den neuesten Artikel von Antal E. Fekete.
    (“When Atlas Shrugged”). Ich lese seine Artikel (von A.E.F.) immer mit grossem Interesse.
    Es ist mir aber klar, dass seine professorale Ausdrucksweise nicht leicht zu lesen ist.


    Also weitere Auszüge werde ich heute nicht mehr präsentieren. Versprochen! :D


    Last Thursday I wrote a few words to express that I believed that capital markets were being manipulated again. I talked of the T-Bonds vs Gold trade.
    As to gold, I see no fundamental reason for the sell-off. It appears to me that central banks have intervened. Whether it is the Fed or the European central banks selling heavily to conclude their sales this month under the so-called Washington Agreement, with the funds used to buy Treasury bonds, I can’t say.
    But I can’t overlook the timing of the pop in T-Bonds, the move in certain Nasdaq sectors, and the sell-off in gold just after 10:00am today, and earlier at the 7:20am opening of the futures market.
    The only econ data of importance that was published prior to 7:20am ET was the Bank of England decision to pause on rates, which in and of itself was quite insufficient to cause the major swings a couple minutes later in gold and U.S. bonds.
    The U.S. energy data was published later at 10:30am ET, and that market didn’t really soften until just after 12:00pm noon, so the oil market was not a factor today either.
    Again, I suspect that central banks were into the market to try to prop up the USD by buying T-Bonds and selling gold.

    In that article I referred to central bank selling of gold, and I see that today others are writing it up as a possible explanation to the extreme trading in gold.
    This weekend in the Week In Review I talked a bit about the derivatives market gone amuck. Today I was sent an article published by Prof. Antal Fekete entitled, “WHEN ATLAS SHRUGGED, Part One: The lure and lore of risk-free profits”. Download file
    I think Antal Fekete is as close to the truth about what’s happening today as anybody I’ve read.
    The implications, whether Fekete is right or whether the current down spike in gold is caused by central bank selling, are that capital markets are manipulated. Now we know they are, at least to an extent, but if the manipulation is as great as I think, what will eventually happen is what I wrote in this week’s WIR, as follows:
    Seemingly safely hedged positions have to be unwound at certain times, which sends a flood of hot money running in the opposite direction. Back and forth, as the derivative markets escalate. At some point there will be increasing dissatisfaction that turns to disillusionment and finally disengagement by the independent trader as government and central banks step up their market interventionist tactics, trying hard to save the financial system from a systemic collapse.
    The clouds are growing darker, I am afraid, and the problems are not being caused by the independent trader but by a triumvirate of government-gnomes-and-bankers. Independent traders have turned to mathematical trading decision models as a defense, and these are the programmed trading decisions that are swinging sectors like energy and technology from first to last and back again, from week to week.
    I think humans are getting tired of it all, and want the system fixed. It won't be of course as long as the people running the major economic powers and money center banks of the world can 'get theirs'.
    The rest of us will stand in line.
    This morning on CNBC there was a roundtable discussion by the Chairman of JP Morgan Chase and former GE Chairman Jack Welch. These salesmen for America made statements that I found absolutely disgusting -- about how well off Americans are, how great the U.S. economy is, and how wrong it is that the current president is not recognized for his amazing economic performance.
    I thought I’d be ill. They think the public has been so dummied down that we can’t think for ourselves. No, what’s happened is that we’ve been lied to, misled, and kept from ‘getting ours’ for so long, some of us have cottoned on to using the Web to spread the word about these people and their “best practices” to control us.
    There is a reason why terrorism exists today, why Washington politicians are at all-time record lows in the polls, why few of us trust NYC bankers, and on and on.
    It is precisely because We The People won’t drink their lemonade anymore that their capital market system is going to collapse. They won’t let markets alone to the honest use and benefit of the independent owners and managers of capital. They have turned our market into a political sideshow.
    I don’t know when the collapse will happen, but I do know the system is broken.
    Please read “When Atlas Shrugged”. It speaks to our future.


    Gruss

    Es ist noch kein Verschwörungstheoretiker vom Himmel gefallen.
    - Altes Sprichwort, neu übersetzt

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Vanescent ()

    Lastly, interventional analysis undoubtedly shows that large players have and are intervening in the precious metals markets, as well as oil and other commodities.



    This is self-evident from the derivative positions in these markets held by various financial entities, on both the governmental and private level. In our weekly market wrap we presented a table of all these derivative positions: totaling approximately 3 TRILLION DOLLARS


    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1158073380.php

    Ich habe mir nochmal Gedanken zum genauen Timing gemacht..


    a) Gold und US$ werden ca. mit Anfang 2007 bis Ende 2007 miteinander korrelieren, danach wieder negative Korrelation
    b) US-Renditen sollten in den nächsten 3 Jahren auf ca. 2% sinken, vermutlich das Ende des Bullenmarktes
    c) US$ wird steigen durch die SKS mit Kopf Ende 04/Anfang 05. Damit Preisziel 1.05 ca. Ende 2007.


    Warum sollte es so kommen? Aufgrund der Immo-Bubble bricht der US Konsum Weg, Rezession ab 2007. Aufgrund des geringeren Konsums bricht das Handelsbilanzdefizit ein, der US$ wird stärker.
    Die Rezession/Depression wird bis ca. Ende 2009 dauern.
    Gleichzeitig aber wird es aufgrund des geringeren Exports in China zu Problemen kommen. Ca. ab Ende 2007 wird die Situation in China dramatisch, es werden Gelder aus den USA abgezogen, weil man sie einfach braucht. Der US$ wird vermutlich leicht schwächer.
    Selbst das wird nicht reichen, 2009 dann werden die Probleme in China so groß sein, daß man sich dort nur noch per Inflationierung zu helfen weiß. Die Zentralbank wird versuchen den Wechselkurs stabil zu halten und wird US-Anleihen verkaufen wodurch die langfristigen Renditen in den USA wieder steigen werden. Vielleicht wird dann auch die USA in eine inflationäre Phase eintreten.
    Staatsanleihen sollten also bis Ende 2009 steigen, dann fallen und im Zug der Inflation wertlos werden.
    Der US$ gibt ein Zwischenspiel bis Ende 2007, danach im wesentlichen seitwärts, ab 2009 ist es sowieso egal ob eine Währung 10% zulegt oder nicht.
    Aktien werden bis 2009 fallen. Gold wird auch fallen, aber irgendwann zwischen November 06 und März 07 steigen. Ab dann steigen Gold und US$. Ab Ende 2007 ist zwar die positive Zeit für den US$ wieder vorbei, aber ab dann ist die Korrelation planmäßig auch wieder negativ, d.h. Gold wird weiter steigen. Die Anstiege bis 2009 werden sich aber in Grenzen halten (sagen wir mal nicht 5-stellig).


    China ist der wahrscheinlichste Kandidat für eine Hyperinflation. Es ist eben noch keine überschuldete Volkswirtschaft wie die westlichen, die für Deflation anfällig sind. Bargeld spielt noch eine größere Rolle und vermutlich wird auch einfach Bargeld in großen Mengen gedruckt werden.


    Ob es eine Hyperinflation ab Ende 2009 auch bei uns geben wird ist vollkommen unklar. Es ist aber klar, daß die Chinesen bei einer Inflation irrsinnige Mengen Gold kaufen werden. Also wird der Preis global steigen egal ob Inflation bei uns / in den USA oder nicht.


    Nur ein mögliches Szenario, das m.E. aber am wahrscheinlichsten ist, jedenfalls kann es alle Kursverläufe (wenn sie denn so kommen) erklären. An der Börse ist es so, daß man oft die Ursachen schon viel früher erkennen kann wie z.B. das Ende der Immo-Bubble ab 2005, das nun als Ursache für den Preisverfall an den Aktienmärkten dienen wird.


    Alle bisherigen Krisenszenarien zeichnen sich ja vor allem dadurch aus, daß jeweils immer nur einzelne Staaten betrachtet werden. Genauso demographische Faktoren, die meist nur auf einen Staat/eine Region beschränkt sind.


    Anleihen sollten also bis Ende 2007 komplett in Gold getauscht werden. Sie sollten ohnehin mehr als Spekulation auf einen starken US$ angesehen werden.


    Gruß
    S.

    Gmorning Saccard


    Bist mal wieder sehr positiv was USD angeht, der ist doch 30% ueberbewertet. Mit China mach da keinen Fehler, die sind schlau !


    Sollte wohl so geschrieben sein:


    2009 dann werden die Probleme in USA so groß sein, daß man sich dort nur noch per Inflationierung zu helfen weiß. Die Zentralbank wird versuchen den Wechselkurs stabil zu halten.


    USA ist der wahrscheinlichste Kandidat für eine Hyperinflation.


    US$ wird fallen durch die SKS mit Kopf Ende 04/Anfang 05. Damit Preisziel 1.50 ca. Ende 2007.


    Gruss


    Eldo

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Moin Eldo und Saccard


    Die ganzen Überlegungen,wohin der $ marschiert,hängen in großem Masse von China und anderen Asiaten ab.
    Sicher spielt die sich abzeichnende Rezession in den USA auch eine grosse Rolle.


    Letztlich sieht das so aus:
    Fällt der $,wozu ich neige,stärkt dies die Edelmetalle.
    Ist er stark,dann nur aus den von Saccard dargelegten Gründen: Ebenfalls gut für die PM.


    Fazit: Gold und Silber,sicher auch die Weißmetalle,steigen so oder so. 8)


    Grüsse
    Edel Man


    "Die Märkte haben nie unrecht, die Menschen oft." Jesse Livermore, 20.Jh.


    "Die Demokratie ist das Paradies der Schreier und Schwätzer, Phraseure, Schmeichler und Schmarotzer, die jedem sachlichen Talent weit mehr den Weg verlegen, als dies in einer anderen Verfassungsform vorkommt." E.von Hartmann


    Dieser Beitrag ist eine persönliche Meinung gem. Art.5 Abs.1 GG und Urteil des BVG 1 BvR 1384/16

    Wenn die Menschen oder Regierungen sehen das ihr Geld wertloser wird dann kauft man alle TANGIBLE ASSETS (Sachanlagen) um den Wertverlust zu vermindern.


    Viele sind still und heimlich jetzt schon dabei, die grosse Panik und Flucht aus den Fiatwaehrungen hat noch nicht begonnen, die kommt aber !!


    Irgendwann kapieren die Leute das eine Goldmuenze oder Oil mehr bringt als Fiatgeld das taeglich an Kaufkraft verliert.


    Da kommen noch turbulente Zeiten auf uns zu.


    Got Gold ???


    XEX

    Zitat

    Original von Eldorado
    Wie gehts auf dem Goldmarkt weiter ?


    Nicht mal der Papst weiss das ganz genau. :D



    Naja, zumindest wirst Du gleich wissen, wie der Goldmarkt von gewissen Herren geplant wird. Hoffe, jetzt sind gleich nicht zuviele Weltbilder zerstört :rolleyes:


    Quelle: http://www.goldensextant.com/MinutesII.html#anchor163744



    A meeting of the principals of the Exchange Stabilization Fund was held at Camp David, Maryland, on Saturday, September 2, 2006, at 11:00 a.m.


    PRESENT:


    THE PRESIDENT
    THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY


    THE VICE PRESIDENT


    Guests:


    Mr. Bernanke, Federal Reserve
    Mr. Gonzalez, Department of Justice


    Mr. Hazmat, Goldman Sachs International
    Mr. Shortz, Goldman Sachs London
    Mr. Jetski, JP Morgan
    Mr. Fu, HSBC
    Mr. Apnea, Citibank


    Staff and Aides, Working Group on Financial Markets


    Ms. Miers, Secretary




    THE PRESIDENT. I appreciate you all being here for this special meeting of the Gold Stomping Fund, or whatever you want to call it. I understand we got a lot to go over. I’m going to turn things over to Hanky Panky directly. We start talking about this financial stuff and I’m out like an odd man. But first, Dickie has something.


    THE VICE PRESIDENT. Unauthorized disclosure of the existence or content of these proceedings will be deemed to be an act hostile to the vital interests of the United States. Violators will be tortured and shot.


    SPEAKER. (?) Surely the Vice President is speaking figuratively. Such -- uh, extreme -- penalties for a simple leak would raise serious issues under the Constitution.


    THE PRESIDENT. I got all the Constitution I need right here, son. It’s called the Bible. Albertini?


    MR. GONZALEZ. Sir. Under our reading of the relevant provisions of the Constitution and the enabling legislation promulgated thereunder, the President, in his capacity as Commander in Chief, has very broad powers in certain narrowly defined circumstances. Such powers include, without limitation, classifying certain individuals as enemies of the state, and administering such extrajudicial remedies as he may deem useful in his sole discretion, including, without limitation, corporal and capital punishment. Qualifying circumstances include, without limitation, preemptive war initiated by the CIC. Accordingly, it is our position that it is currently within the CIC’s prerogative to cause those persons suspected of breaching applicable confidentiality stipulations to be tortured and shot.


    THE PRESIDENT. Like he says. I’m the Decider. Well, all right then. Hanky?


    MR. PAULSON. Thank you, Mr. President, ladies and gentlemen. I’ll get right to the point. As I expect you are all well aware, the financial condition of the United States is best described as catastrophic.


    The St. Louis Fed has recently confirmed that we are staring at a fiscal gap of 66 trillion dollars.


    This assessment is based on our -- the Treasury’s -- numbers. It is conservative.


    You all know how we got here. Over a period of many years, many of us in positions of public and private power have betrayed our trust, looting the system and creating third world wealth disparities in the United States. We have abused our stewardship of the global reserve currency, and sequentially engineered the most dangerous and irresponsible series of credit expansions in history. The superficial effects of these credit expansions have, until now, masked the underlying rot. But a reckoning is upon us.


    Today, the country is hemorrhaging from a ruinously expensive series of mismanaged foreign military commitments and runaway domestic entitlement programs. We have made trillions of dollars’ worth of promises we cannot -- and will not -- keep. By all standard measures, by any rational calculation, we are in a state of national bankruptcy.


    THE VICE PRESIDENT. Deficits don’t matter.


    THE PRESIDENT. To me, the question comes down to this: Is our seniors saving?


    MR. PAULSON. The situation is dire. It is widely held in financial circles that we have no exit strategy. Indeed, I hold my present office at the insistence of certain important interests with a major exposure. They are increasingly alarmed at our drift. My charge is to oversee the development and implementation of a viable end game. Now, our only realistic policy option is painfully obvious: we must repudiate our debt through radical devaluation of the dollar. But I am here to see that we do so in a way that will enable our favored creditors to salvage something from the process.


    THE PRESIDENT. I met some radicals once. In college. Don’t know whatever happened to them.


    MR. PAULSON. The outlines of the strategy have now been drawn. It has four key phases.


    Phase One extends from the date of my confirmation through the November elections. Our objective is to continue to preserve the apparent stability of critical financial indicators. To achieve this goal, we will continue, and intensify as warranted, our ongoing program of market intervention. On the one hand, we will support the dollar, the domestic equity markets, and the fixed-income markets. On the other, we will keep the prices of certain precious metals, notably gold and silver, in check. We will do this in collaboration with certain friendly central banks and finance ministries. Phase One will create a window within which our favored creditors may exchange a substantial portion of their dollar holdings for alternative currencies and other assets, including precious metals, of their choice.


    Phase Two will start immediately following the midterm elections and extend for an indeterminate period currently estimated at approximately six months. As a practical matter, the length of time will depend on political factors. Our objective will be to trigger a temporary, but wrenching, recession. To achieve this goal, the Fed will stop pushing down the far end of the yield curve, and allow interest rates on dollar-denominated assets to rise well above the actual rate of inflation. Phase Two will create a window within which the dollar will temporarily strengthen against other currencies and assets, and our favored creditors may exchange a substantial portion of their dollar holdings for certain assets adversely affected by the rise in rates.


    [Disturbance: Sound of extreme flatulence; groans; laughter.]


    THE PRESIDENT. The smeller’s the feller!


    MR. PAULSON. Phase Three will commence as we approach what we deem to be the point of no return. We cannot allow the liquidation to gather such momentum that we risk a downward spiral beyond our power to reverse. Our objective will be to devalue the dollar and effectively repudiate dollar-denominated debts. We propose to achieve this by means of adopting what will be popularly perceived as a hyperinflationary monetary policy. We will work closely with the Fed to monetize virtually all assets. Phase Three will leave our less favored creditors with worthless claims, an outcome which is expected to have a commensurately negative effect on their own financial systems and productive economies. Our friends will already have taken advantage of Phases One and Two.


    Phase Four is frankly a work in progress. It will commence when we conclude that we have reduced our debt to manageable proportions, and extend indefinitely into the future. Our objective will be to restore confidence in a stable currency unit. We propose to achieve this by introducing a new currency with a nominal -- but not an actual, to the extent we can avoid it -- relationship to precious metals. This should enable us to start over once the brush has been cleared, as it were.


    We’re obviously going to need the full cooperation of the Working Group in each phase to make this a success. That’s why I’m delighted to see so many old friends from the Street here this morning, wearing their quasi-official hats. We’ll provide further detail of the program at the staff level over the course of the next few weeks. But I’ll be pleased at this time to entertain any questions with respect to the broad strokes. Yes. Kung.


    MR. FU. Hank, what is point of Phase One? Why we not rret rates rip now?


    MR. PAULSON. A change in control of either House will introduce an undesirable element of uncertainty, putting at risk the successful execution of Phases Two through Four.


    That said, I must caution you that control appears likely to shift irrespective of the outcome of the midterm elections. Bob?


    MR. HAZMAT. What the Secretary is alluding to is a decision by the Olmert-Peretz coalition to retain Goldman Sachs to explore a sale of Israel’s controlling interest in Congress. We haven’t announced it yet, but we are enormously proud of this mandate.


    THE PRESIDENT. Holy moly. Condi know about this?


    SPEAKER. (?) What ingrates! Why would they give up on us now? Because we’re broke? Because that resolution endorsing the destruction of Lebanon was a few votes short of unanimous?


    MR. HAZMAT. No, no, nothing like that. The engagement covers only the Legislative branch. The Executive and the Press are expressly excluded. They’re quite happy with their relationship with the United States. Really. No, this deal is driven by economics. They get just $3 billion each year from the United States. They then have to turn around and reinvest a huge slug of that just to maintain the message discipline network in all 435 Congressional districts. But as we all know, the Legislative function is all but irrelevant in today’s America. They’re just not getting a fair return on their investment. Add to that the big turnover expected in November, with old assets going out the door, a slew of new guys to buy: the numbers just don’t work. Plus, there’s that stupid study out there putting a spotlight on the whole thing. Under present circumstances, divestiture is an attractive option.


    MR. PAULSON. Thank you, Bob. I’ll defer to the political experts on the broader implications of the pending sale. I bring it to your attention only to underscore the delicacy of the situation as it relates to executing our strategy. Other questions? Yes. Dopey.


    SPEAKER. (?) Hank, how can you call back the deflationary process you plan to unleash after the elections? How can you have a little deflation? And what if you get a cascading series of defaults and the system enters an irreversible downward spiral?


    MR. BERNANKE. If I may. The conclusion that deflation is always reversible under a fiat money system follows from basic economic reasoning. A little parable may prove useful: Today an ounce of gold sells for $300, more or less. Er, make that $600. Now suppose that a modern alchemist solves his subject's oldest problem by finding a way to produce unlimited amounts of new gold at essentially no cost. Moreover, his invention is widely publicized and scientifically verified, and he announces his intention to begin massive production of gold within days. What would happen to the price of gold? Presumably, the potentially unlimited supply of cheap gold would cause the market price of gold to plummet. Indeed, if the market for gold is to any degree efficient, the price of gold would collapse immediately after the announcement of the invention, before the alchemist had produced and marketed a single ounce of yellow metal.


    What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.


    THE PRESIDENT. That’s deep, Benny. I like it. Nice slacks, by the way.


    SPEAKER. (?) But how will we maintain domestic order? First deflation, then hyperinflation. Then whatever. No one has a clue this sort of thing is coming. That’s if it works. If it doesn’t work, we’re facing a thing without a name. Hyperdepression? Either way, we’re going to have riots, mutinies, rude behavior everywhere.


    THE PRESIDENT. Two words, son: Marshall Dillon.


    THE VICE PRESIDENT. Any expression of dissent from this policy will pose a direct threat to our way of life. Therefore at the first hint of opposition this Administration will have no choice but to declare martial law. Important elements will include: internal passports with imbedded transponders, exchange controls, a military draft, civilian detention centers outside the major metropolitan areas, and extensive restrictions on all non-essential travel and communication.


    THE PRESIDENT. That includes the Internets.


    THE VICE PRESIDENT. With these measures in place, we will have the ability to deter, detect and suppress any domestic opposition. And so preserve our freedoms.


    THE PRESIDENT. Hard-core objectors will be sent hunting with Dickie.


    SPEAKER. (?) Jesus Christ. Aren’t there any Constitutional impediments?


    THE PRESIDENT. I’d appreciate it if you wouldn’t take the Lord’s name in vain, son. And I’m getting pretty sick and tired of hearing the C word every time I turn around: Constitution, Constitution, Constitution. These are important times. We’ve got to stay the course. You’re either with us or against us. Albertini?


    MR. GONZALEZ. Sir. Under our reading of the Constitution, in a declared domestic emergency, the CIC assumes divine powers.


    MR. PAULSON. Yes. Sleepy.


    MR. APNEA. Hank, this seems like a pretty blunt instrument. How do we make sure we stiff our enemies but not our friends? And what’s to stop the bad guys from dumping their Treasuries before we destroy their value?


    MR. PAULSON. As to stiffing our friends, we don’t worry so much about this, since we have so few -- most of the world is already dancing on the grave of the American empire, thanks to our maladroit foreign policy -- and they’ll be in the loop anyway, helping smooth the markets. As to our enemies striking first, yes, we do worry about that. But the Chinese authorities, who have the largest exposure by far, are focused on preserving power through promoting China’s industrialization, and, conversely, our deindustrialization. Selling their dollar assets precipitously would put their own development at risk by triggering a global contraction with major blowback into their own economy. So we’re betting this strategic emphasis will lead them to defer dollar sales, to the point where they end up with a total loss on their positions. Worst case, they figure out the game and crash the party, loading up on cheap metal like our friends. We see that as an acceptable risk.


    MR. PAULSON. Sneezy.


    SPEAKER. (?) I’m a little unclear on how we get people to think things are stable in Phase One when we’re obviously heading over a cliff.


    MR. PAULSON. We target two main audiences with our communications policy. One is the public. While we’ve had serious slippage in other policy areas, generally speaking, the American public still believes what we say on financial matters. So when we release economic statistics -- however inconsistent with objective reality --, and when the markets generate averages -- however absurd --, to date, we have found the public receptive or at worst indifferent.


    The second target audience is the financial community, a more sophisticated crowd. They know what’s happening. But as long as they make money at it, they’re happy to play our virtual reality game. These people are not in business to defend the principle of free markets or otherwise make trouble. They are in business to make money. We set up a simple incentive system. If they do what we want, we let them make their numbers. If they don’t, we destroy them. It’s an easy call.


    THE PRESIDENT. I love this guy. He cracks me up. Hanky Panky Bo Banky....


    MR. PAULSON. The wild card is real estate. The big mortgage resets don’t start kicking in until next year. But if housing collapses before November, we have a major problem. The public won’t listen to us on the subject of how much their houses are worth, and we don’t have a price-support mechanism for this market.

    ....hier gehts weiter.....


    SPEAKER. (?) Perhaps in that event we’ll experience some sort of shock that will take people’s minds off their declining house prices. Remind them how lucky they are to have us in charge.


    [Laughter.]


    MS. MIERS. Hank, in the markets you do control, how do you do it? Doesn’t this create a rather awkward paper trail?


    MR. PAULSON. No, Harriett, it’s a lot more subtle than that. But that’s a very discerning question. You care to amplify on this, Joe?


    MR. JETSKI. Sure thing, Hank. We tell the markets what we want in several ways. One way is direct -- we create a trading environment where only those prop desks who position themselves according to our playbook ever make it home. We make things go up when they should go down. We make things go down when they should go up. We’re very easy to read when we’re doing policy trades. The guidance is so obvious a blind squirrel could see it. It’s mostly just computers responding to our algorithms anyway. You’d have to want to lose money in a big way to override your systems and go against that flow.


    Another way is indirect -- we goose or pressure assets in one market by trading derivatives in another. We buy or sell in size, futures, say, in market A, creating obvious arbitrage opportunities relative to the underlying assets in market B. The big players that aren’t brain-dead pile in for free money. They go long or short against us in the derivatives market and do the opposite simultaneously in the cash market. They book an instant, risk-free gain in the amount of the differential we just created. They keep doing it as long as we supply the juice. At the end of the day, the cash markets go where we want. The leverage is huge.


    Still another way is my personal favorite, “Operation Rolling Plunder.” Every so often, we rain terror from the skies. We bomb the trading pits and exchange posts with massive sell orders. Without letup; all the way down. At the same time we pull all bids, blocking the exits. The refugees get trapped like rats, then panic and dump their holdings. We snarf up their discards and reload, all the while bombing and shorting the stragglers. By the time we finish, the only survivors are a few miserable deadenders and nutcases. All they can do is piss and moan about “market manipulation,” and hatch their kooky conspiracy theories. They call themselves “gold bugs.”


    THE PRESIDENT. A-holes is more like it.


    THE VICE PRESIDENT. Big time.


    SPEAKER. (?) But Hank, how will you have the gold you need as a platform for a new hard currency when you’re selling so much of it now to maintain stable prices?


    MR. PAULSON. We don’t actually sell much metal anymore. There are some wash trades among friends - the central banks - from time to time, but for the most part we sell claims to metal. When the time comes, the exchanges and OTC counterparties will declare force majeure and settle out the claims in paper.


    THE PRESIDENT. Force majeure?


    MR. PAULSON. French for “screw you.” Sir. Besides, we’re gathering up plenty of accessible metal in the ETFs. And Barrick holds a lot of reserves we can monetize if needed.


    THE PRESIDENT. American Barrick? Is that the exploration company No. 41 helped Mr. Khashoggi and Phelonious Monk set up a few years back?


    MR. PAULSON. The very one. They’re big now, and getting bigger all the time. We -- the government, that is -- are the indirect owners of most of their reserves. By the time we’re finished with Phase Two, we expect Barrick will control most of the known reserves on the planet. Except for all the stuff we -- at Goldman and the other banks, that is -- are picking up in our personal accounts. Throughout Phases One and Two, we’ll be buying gold in the ground at a fraction of its future monetary value.


    I would also point out that in any event, we don’t expect to have to use real metal backing for the new currency. Just the promise of metal should be enough, based on historical experience. People will be so exhausted by that time that they’ll clutch at anything. The Rentenmark had no gold backing, for example. So we plan to keep the metal right where it belongs. With us. Broadly speaking.


    THE PRESIDENT. The Renten-Who?


    MR. SHORTZ. I would be most pleased to address this topic, Excellency. What the Secretary is referring to is the Rentenmark, which was the immediate, interim successor to the German Reichsmark. In the course of the German inflation, the Reichsmark declined in value from an exchange rate of about 12 to the U.S. dollar in 1919 to over a trillion to the dollar in 1923. A very large decline indeed, Highness. The Rentenmark was a cracking good success, and although it was presented to the German public as a currency unit linked to gold, in fact there was not a single gram of gold behind it. It was all a very great spin. Of course, the circumstances then were very different. The hyperinflation of the Germans came before their internal repression and external aggression.


    THE PRESIDENT. Who’s the towelhead, Hanky?


    MR. PAULSON. This is Mr. Grunji Shortz, sir. He’s our -- Goldman’s -- head trader in London. He quarterbacks a lot of our market management activities.


    THE PRESIDENT. Well, this is all very interesting, Hanky. No, I mean it. But I got a bike date. Then I need a nap before the Rangers game. Pablo Escobar’s pitching. So let’s wrap it up. Do I hear a movement?


    A motion having been made, seconded and carried unanimously, the meeting then ADJOURNED.


    Faithfully,


    Harriet Miers,
    Secretary

    ""Still another way is my personal favorite, “Operation Rolling Plunder.


    Every so often, we rain terror from the skies. We bomb the trading pits and exchange posts with massive sell orders. Without letup; all the way down. At the same time we pull all bids, blocking the exits. The refugees get trapped like rats, then panic and dump their holdings. We snarf up their discards and reload, all the while bombing and shorting the stragglers. By the time we finish, the only survivors are a few miserable deadenders and nutcases.


    All they can do is piss and moan about “market manipulation,” and hatch their kooky conspiracy theories. They call themselves “gold bugs.”


    .....das gibt aber ein Nachspiel, das haben sie vergessen diese Gangster ! X(


    What goes round comes around !.. die Derivitive Bombe wird eines Tages platzen und etliche Banken in die Krise werfen.IMO
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Gold Watch: A bear raid?


    By Jon Nones
    11 Sep 2006 at 02:44 PM

    Gold for December delivery fell $24.30, or 3.9%, to $593 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.


    According to CBS MarketWatch, gold fell today as intermediate bearish signs in the market continued to draw investor away.


    "The precious metal has quickly and effortlessly breached the $600 level, and is frantically trying to uncover whatever support levels there may be available to it, but appears unable to find them just yet," said Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com.


    "Intermediate bearish signals are lighting up one after the other, as traders probe lower and take the market from oversold conditions (just one week ago) to the bargain basement level, today," he said.


    "The calendar however, will not wait, and the wedding season will be upon India within a month," he said, so "some will have to decide whether $580 or $590 gold is enough of a bargain to go ahead and load up on bullion."


    Analysts with TheBullionDesk.com cited “productive” negotiations between Iranian and European officials over Iran's uranium enrichment program, according to Dow Jones Newswires.


    "The improvement of geopolitical tensions between the EU (European Union) and Iran, as well as the ongoing correction in the oil market, seem likely to keep gold under pressure for the time being, with gold now potentially looking at a pull back to the $585 support should support fail to hold around the 200-day moving average ($594.20)," TheBullionDesk.com added.


    Investors weighed bullion's longer-term prospects in the face of a declining oil price, according to Reuters.


    "Some are asking about the need to hold gold as an inflation hedge if oil's going down," a bullion dealer said.


    "We had expected more support at $600, but it didn't hold," another dealer said. "The dollar's not helping gold much this morning.”


    According to Bloomberg, gold tumbled after negotiators reported progress to resolve a dispute over Iran's nuclear research. :D


    “There's weakness across the board, and there's some talk that this could be the beginning of the end” for the five-year rally in commodity prices, said Ron Cameron, a resources analyst at Ord Minnett Ltd. “Tensions seem to be softening, and that's giving the traders an excuse” to sell. :D


    “The Iranian talks and lower oil prices support a less attractive picture for gold,” said Jonathan Barratt, head of foreign exchange and metals at Tricom Futures Pty.


    “People were playing gold up in the past two months on the basis of oil, and now it's on the way down,” said Mark Pervan, research head at Daiwa Securities SMBC.


    The gold price dipped below $600/oz as investors sold out in anticipation of a stronger dollar, according to Business Day.


    "The onslaught has continued in the Far East this morning where gold traded down to a low of $597, as investors panicked to liquidate their positions in anticipation of further dollar strength and a weaker oil price during the week ahead," said the Standard Bank daily precious metals note.


    "The market will now be heavily focused on the 200-day moving average located at $593 where a breach and close below this major support level will certainly encourage further unwinding of gold positions as investors peer into a black hole," said Standard Bank.


    December silver futures were last down 86.5 cents at $11.43 an ounce. October platinum lost $36.50, or 3%, to $1,196 an ounce and December palladium traded down $17.40, or 5.2%, at $316.20 an ounce. December copper fell 13.3 cents to trade at $3.438 a pound. Crude futures fell under $66 a barrel to touch their lowest level since late March.


    My answer :

    Da redet jeder was anderes, wenn ich das ganze vergleiche was Trichat gestern gesagt hat.


    IMF chief warns of global recession
    Monday 11 September 2006, 22:29 Makka Time, 19:29 GMT


    The international monetary fund chief has warned that the global economy could head into recession if imbalances in the world's financial systems are not resolved.


    Heute ist das US Handelsdefizit nur 68 Billion USD...but who cares if you can print it ! :D


    http://english.aljazeera.net/N…8C7-A729-79A827C45AA8.htm

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