Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

Bei den Preis von 130 USD sind ein paar SLV ins Depot gehupft.

Der HUI koennte auf 340 fallen noch mehr abgeladen wird durch das Dollarwunder mit der PPT Vitamin Spritze.

XEX

Kein Problem, wenn der € bei 1,50 - 160$ $ steht.

Wenn die Minen, wie so oft, dem POG vorlaufen steht die Sache verdammt schlecht. Selten habe ich soviel rot im Depot gehabt wie die letzten Tage.
Erst kreuzen wir die ominöse ZAhl dieses Mal von oben und dann kann es nochmals zum Test der 640 oder gar 600 kommen oder auch ganz anders.

Schaun mer mal
midas

Le Metropole Members,

Served at The Dos Passos Table:

KEEPING OUR EYES PEELED FOR

THE SILVER AND GOLD BASIS

Antal E. Fekete

Gold Standard University

"Gamblers shorting the dollar and bonds beware. Rumors
about the imminent demise of the dollar and the bond
market are grossly exaggerated. Bear in mind not only
that the casino owner rigs your odds. He is also rigging
the value of chips in which payoffs are made, thereby
confusing the issue further.

"The teetering of the dollar at the 80 mark, according
to some the most important chart point ever in the
history of charting, smells like a bear-trap. A lot
of analyst predict that if the dollar violates that
support, then it is bound to go into a free-fall. Nobody
is seriously considering the possibility that this chart
point, like everything else about the dollar, is rigged.
It is the trip-wire set to trip up the bears."

All the best,

Bill Murphy
Le Patron

...hmmm - ich hoffe ich verstehe das richtig

"The teetering of the dollar at the 80 mark, according
to some the most important chart point ever in the
history of charting, smells like a bear-trap. A lot
of analyst predict that if the dollar violates that
support, then it is bound to go into a free-fall. Nobody
is seriously considering the possibility that this chart
point, like everything else about the dollar, is rigged.
It is the trip-wire set to trip up the bears."

....also den $ nicht abschreiben 80er Marke in oder her
das wäre eine ziemlich widersprüchliche Meinung zu vielen hier
bin etwas verwirrt

linar

Bis jetzt hat sich das Zuwarten absolut nicht ausbezahlt. Der POG ist gestiegen der HUI ist gestiegen, aber mein Depot nicht.

Dafür kann man jetzt überall lesen, dass die Juniors u. Explorer erst zum Schluss steigen nachdem die "Großen" gestiegen sind. Außerdem ist es jetzt offensichtlich ein schlechtes Zeichen, wenn der HUI dem POG vorangeht.

Schön, dass man das auch erfährt nach 15 Monaten. Ich frag mich nur worauf ich dann eigentlich warte. Dass der Goldpreis vielleicht vor Ende des Jahres noch die 700 übersteigt? Das der HUI noch vor Ende des Jahres die 400 erreicht?

Tolle Aussichten sind das!!!

Fällt der HUI halt auf 340. Fällt der POG halt auf 600 oder wohin auch immer. Solange meinem Depot alles gleichgültig ist spielt das sowieso keine Rolle. Da kann ich ja gleich in Barrick investieren, wenn es eh niemanden interessiert ob die hedgen oder nicht.

Bis irgendwann! Mir wird das Ganze schön langsam eindeutig zu blöd.

Gruß

der DAU

@Dau

Du kannst depremiert Pfirty Gold sagen,... good luck to you.

linar

Alles was offensichtlich ist und vorrausgesagt wurde zeigt oft etwas anderes was man erwartet.

Die Wackelparty geht weiter mit dem USD und Gold die kommt erst heftiger viel spaeter als man erhofft.

Der Physcho mit den Goldbugs geht weiter, Dau hat die Nase bereits voll von dem Stoff.

Selten ein Nachteil ohne Vorteil.

MfG

XEX

Wie war das nochmal bei Kostolany?

Erfolg einer Anlage macht zu 10 % Geld und Psychologie, aber zu 90 % das Sitzfleisch aus. So oder so ähnlich hat er es gesehen. Und es stimmt wohl.

Ich kann warten und sitze das Gehampele der Lackaffen vom PPT aus.

Irgendwann wird schon jemand beginnen mit den vielen USD um sich zu schmeißen. Es wird langsam schon umgeschichtet zum EURO. Das ist der erste Trippelschritt. Ölverkauf in Euro läuft auch schon. Viel Spaß auf dem Immomarkt in den Staaten

Nur nicht huddeln.

Zitat

Original von Eldorado

linar

Alles was offensichtlich ist und vorrausgesagt wurde zeigt oft etwas anderes was man erwartet.

Die Wackelparty geht weiter mit dem USD und Gold die kommt erst heftiger viel spaeter als man erhofft.

Der Physcho mit den Goldbugs geht weiter, Dau hat die Nase bereits voll von dem Stoff.

Selten ein Nachteil ohne Vorteil.

MfG

XEX

Alles anzeigen

...mit dem physischen hab ich kein Problem - das schlummert still vor sich hin und bekommt immer wieder etwas Zuwachs - ich finde nur Herr Fekete drückt sich etwas sehr *vielseitig" aus ohne eigentlich was zu sagen, erinnert mich irgendwie an einen gewissen Herrn Greenspan Wie auch immer - geschenkt wird einem nichts

linar

Der Run nach den physischen Gold fuer Fiatgeld ist noch nicht da.
Was triggert den Silberpreis ?.. da muessten die meisten zu Pro Aurum laufen und eine Silbermuenze oder Teekanne erstmal kaufen.
Da fehlen die Silbermuenzen als Geld im Umlauf oder wie steigt man dort den Bedarf oder Verbrauch in einer Rezession.
Es sei denn die Banken oder die Reichen haben ein Silberlager was aus Platzgruenden besser mit Gold gedeckt ist.
Stellt Euch vor ihr muesst 4 tonnen Silber polieren.

Was ne geile Party
Reg ich mich auf ? Von wegen, je öfter PPT und Konsorten ihre Strategie preisgeben, desto mehr lernt man. Know your enemy!

Viele wissens schon, mein Name ist Programm .. gut zum Silber gibt es Gold, Basismetalle und Uran, aber chillen ist die Strategie für mich und der Erfolg gibt mir bisher recht... sollte mich umbenennen in Rohstoffchiller, nur das reimt sich nicht mehr so schön.

Eines muss ich euch noch teilhaben lassen .. heute in meinem Spamfilter gelandet und einfach köstlich ..

Zitat

Sie handeln bislang nur mit Aktien oder Zertifikaten?
Dann verpassen Sie eine große Chance...

... denn D-E-V-I-S-E-N
bieten Ihnen unge ahnte Möglichkeiten!

Leider wissen hiervon viele Privatanleger noch
nichts und verpassen somit enorme Gewinnchancen!!

Der Devisenhandel ist der liquideste und spannendste
Markt der Welt! Wir sprechen hier von einem Handelsvolumen
von ca. 1,9 Billionen US-Dollar - täglich (!!). Somit sind
Kursmanipulationen, wie Sie oftmals am Aktienmarkt vorkommen,
unmöglich.

Alles anzeigen

@Linar....read my lips :D...

KEEPING OUR EYES PEELED FOR

THE SILVER AND GOLD BASIS

Antal E. Fekete

Gold Standard University

aefekete@hotmail.com

Setting up the trip-wire

Gamblers shorting the dollar and bonds beware. Rumors about the imminent demise of the dollar and the bond market are grossly exaggerated. Bear in mind not only that the casino owner rigs your odds. He is also rigging the value of chips in which payoffs are made, thereby confusing the issue further.

The teetering of the dollar at the 80 mark, according to some the most important chart point ever in the history of charting, smells like a bear-trap. A lot of analyst predict that if the dollar violates that support, then it is bound to go into a free-fall. Nobody is seriously considering the possibility that this chart point, like everything else about the dollar, is rigged. It is the trip-wire set to trip up the bears.

The demise of the US long-bond market has been talked about for years. Analysts are so busy in writing the post mortem that they have no time to look at the charts. Yet the charts clearly show that the price of the 30-year US Treasurys is in an upward channel, where it has been for past 25 years. This in spite of the dollar index being in a downward channel, where it has been for the past 35 years. How is it that nobody sees a contradiction here that cries out for explanation? That nobody sees the hand of the master-rigger setting up the trip-wire?

Ticket to riskless profits

Here is a question for the discriminating observer. How is it that interest-rate derivatives do not obey the Law of Supply and Demand? The more there are of them, the more they are in demand. Half-a-quadrillion (500 trillion) dollars’ worth are out there at last count (in comparison the US GNP is a paltry 13 trillion), and it is increasing at the rate of 40 percent per annum. At that rate volume doubles about every other year.

Everything in human experience will tell you that such a thing is not possible. The more of anything exists, the less it will be appreciated. If the quantity of a security increases exponentially, then its value is bound to decrease exponentially for the stronger reason. Yet here we are, derivatives doubling in quantity every other year and, far from losing value, they are ever more in demand. Why?

Because derivatives are tickets to risk-free profits.
As such they are the straw on which the world’s banking system swims or sinks. Swims, as long as interest rates are falling; sinks, as soon as they start rising in earnest.

Have the Chinese been tricked?

Enormous fortunes have been made on the long side of the bond market by the bulls during the past 25 years, among them by the Chinese, of all people. Make no mistake about it: their $1 trillion kitty is not all trade surplus. So much of it is the wages of adroit gambling on the long side of the bond market for the past 25 years. In 1982 the Chinese were astute enough to realize that US 30-year treasurys yielding 16 percent per annum were a fantastic bargain. Not only did they lock in an income at 16% for 30 years, but they held out a promise for capital gains by doubling in value at least twice as interest rates fell from 16% to 8%, and then again from 8% to 4%.

The Chinese are not naive as suggested by the analyst. They wrote the book on irredeemable paper currency when the paleface treasurers in the Occident were still experimenting with the alchemy of diluting silver and gold coins in circulation for the benefit of Old Coppernose. The Chinese invented paper without which Helicopter Ben could not do his air-drops of Federal Reserve notes.

Noises from China about their efforts ’to diversify’ the dollar portfolio is meant for the gullible. Whenever they are ready to diversify in earnest, the Chinese will not tell you about it in advance.

Moreover, the fate of the dollar is already pretty well in their hands.

The Chinese have the power, through their continued buying of US long bonds, to drive interest rates further down, all the way to the Japanese, chalking up fabulous capital gains on their bond portfolio in the process. Most importantly, they can do it even in the face of continuing erosion in the purchasing power of the dollar.

Fast breeder of bonds not fast enough

The bond market today is immensely different from that of the 1980’s. Not only have T-bonds been created through fast-breeders, bond gambling has been further escalated through the creation of interest-rate derivatives. A new generation of derivatives is „invented” every few months. The first generation was to hedge the value of bonds. The second was to hedge the value of the first hedges. The third is to hedge the value of the second. And so on and so forth, ad libitum.

There is never enough of those derivatives because new risks crop up with the rise of every new generation of hedges. Academic economists see in them an admirable sophisticated instrument. Pity our poor forefathers. They had to do without them.

Financial journalists want to stay blissfully ignorant of the fact that derivatives have put the Law of Supply and Demand into abeyance. „See no evil, hear no evil.” Cockaigne is here.

Perpetual motion has been invented. Enjoy it. Don’t ask questions. Sit down, sit down: you are rocking the boat!

The con-conundrum

As I have said, the more of those derivatives have been created the more are demanded, because they are considered a ticket to riskless profits. So they are in Japan, and so they are in the United States. When the casino-owner sells tickets to riskless gains, the law of suppy and demand is suspended. Both supply and demand tends to become infinite. Ask Charles Ponzi. He’s been there. Interest-rate derivatives are proxy for bonds. They are new chips that you can use at the casino. They augment a supply the size of which already boggles the mind. On that count alone bond prices should be approaching zero and, interest rates, infinity. Instead, what do we see? Bond prices are still marching upwards. A conundrum indeed, if there ever was one. A con-conundrum.

Who says higher interest rates are necessary?

Those who still believe in the dictum of 19th century textbooks on bonds, that it takes higher interest rates and lower bond prices to perk up excitement in a lethargic bond market, are victims of the most brilliant confidence trick of all times. The gambling spirit in the twenty-first century is being upheld, not by higher interest rates, but by issuing ever more tickets to risk-free profits, that is, ever more derivatives on interest rates. Those who still think that it is necessary to bribe foreign suckers to buy more US bonds by the stratagem of printing ever higher coupon rates on the new bonds are hopelessly antediluvian. They have never heard of the miracle of creating capital gains through pushing interest rates ever lower.

Analysts still fail to see the real purpose of the derivatives monster. It has been sprung on the world in order to keep bond values buoyant, so that the game of musical chairs could go on.

The dollar has fallen through 80. So what?

But what about the US dollar index, allegedly showing that foreigners are getting tired of the infinite supplies of US dollars of diminishing value that keep coming at them? It is nibbling at the all-time low of 80 which, if taken out, you may never hear the dollar to hit bottom. Analysts tell you that you cannot fool Mother Nature. The dollar’s value is closing in on its intrinsic value: zero.

Don’t buy that. The dollar index, just like the CPI number, is manipulated in order to fool the uninitiated.

Should the dollar fall through 80 and approach 70, foreign central banks will see to it that their paper follow suit.
They are all too eager to match every point of the fall of the dollar. That will reverse the trend. The Chinese, in particular, have a vested interest to keep the fall of the dollar controlled and orderly. What is more, they have the power to do so. They don’t mind taking a loss on the dollar here and there, as long as it does not eat significantly into their mountain of paper profits on the bond portfolio.

Central bank bag of tricks

There is no way to predict the future scientifically. I would be a fool if I tried. I am simply saying that a dollar collapse is extremely unlikely at this juncture.
I am inclined to lay far greater a store by the chart showing the US long bond in a 25-year uptrend, than by the chart showing the dollar in a 35-year downtrend. Of course, I know that the dollar, the yen, the euro are all being manipulated lower, each by its own issuer. Why, the name of the game is „all fall down”, isn’t it? But fall it must at a controlled pace. Central banks have a bag of tricks with which they can slow down the depreciation of currency values. The bag is infinitely deep. Furthermore, central banks also have all the marbles. They make most of it. So you want to win by placing a wager against the dollar? Good luck to you, but your odds are infinitesimally small.

I stand by my earlier statement that US interest rates are likely to fall more, replicating that of the Japanese, violation of support at 80 notwithstanding. The world is not now at a crucial turning point in 2007, unlike it was 25 years ago, in 1982, when the Kondratyeff long-wave cycle switched from rising to falling mode.

I expect more of the same: falling interest rates, firms losing market-share and pricing-power, stockpiles of commodities ever more onerous to carry, which add up to a falling price level in a disguise. The dollar index? Forget it. That’s for the birds.

The Volcker-bluff

Why am I so stubborn in sticking to the deflationary scenario? Here is my reasoning. Hyperinflation almost engulfed the world in 1980. When in a spectacular coup interest rates were allowed to go to heights unheard-of at 20+ percent by the maverick Chairman of the Fed, Paul A. Volcker, virtually all the banks of the world became insolvent (as the value of their dollar assets was wiped out by the high-interest-rate regime). The banks were bailed out unexpectedly by the new regime of falling interest rates.

The Volcker-gamble worked. He staked the world’s banking system on saving the dollar from sudden death. Before the bluff could be called, the cascading of interest rates started fuelling bullish speculation in the bond market.

Please note that the Volcker-bluff cannot be replicated 25 years later. In 1982 the world was riding high on the Kondratyeff long wave; in 2007 it is in the depths of the trough. Helicopter Ben could not take his foot off the throttle. If he did, all deflationary hell would break loose, and he knows it. The debt-pyramid would collapse more spectacularly than the World Trade Center.

Keep our eyes peeled for the basis

How could the central banks work the miracle of making interest rates fall in the face of running the printing presses overtime, and keep them from rising again? That’s the most beautiful part of it. They have let the genie of the derivatives monster out of the bottle. The genie is mushrooming over the world economy, growing at a clip of 40 percent per annum. Right now it is half-a-quadrillion dollar strong, doubling in about every second year. It is the derivative monster that keeps interest rates low, and makes them fall further. Remember, derivatives are just tickets to riskless profits in bond speculation on the long side. It is as simple as that.

Does this mean that the Ponzi-scheme of derivatives creation will go on forever? Of course not.
We have it on the authority of the Bible. Read the biblical story of the Tower of Babel. But how do we know when the Derivatives Tower of Babel will start to unravel? Forget the chart point 80, it is not your clue; nor is any other. Keep your eyes peeled for the silver and gold basis. This is the subject of a blue ribbon panel discussion at the next session of the Gold Standard University in August, 2007 (see below).

Do central banks have all the marbles?

It may appear that central banks have all the marbles. Indeed they do — except for one. They have foolishly let the most important marble slip through their fingers. That marble is the gold marble.

The only wager against the dollar that has a chance of winning in the long run is the one staked out by the gold marble. Ironically, it is also the simplest, and anyone can play it, even people of modest means. That wager consists in scale-down purchases of physical gold.

Buy on every dip of the gold price. Upon bigger dips, buy more. In doing so you may ignore all the indicators with the exception of the basis: the CPI, the dollar index, bond prices, foreign exchange rates, COT reports. You keep buying, and never sell. Your gold is fully paid for. It should be a source of infinite joy to give up worthless (well, make that ultimately worthless) paper against acquiring gold marbles.

The music stops when the basis turns permanently negative, heralding the last contango in Washington. It tells the world that all offers to sell physical silver and gold have been withdrawn in the markets. The monetary metals are not for sale at any price. The game of musical chairs is up. But your gold marble has reserved a chair for you.

If personal misfortune overtakes before that happens, you still won’t sell. In an utmost emergency you borrow, but not sell. Remember, interest rates are kept at an artificially low level by the managers of the con-conundrum, offering you a gift.

Theirs is a gift that you may accept.

...merci Eldo kleine Nachtlektüre

linar

Trifft auch zu was Merriman schreibt ?
Ein Punkt stimmt auf jeden Fall
Ja, die Venus....hmmm

Short term:...hat der Dollar wieder Luft bis Anfang September ???

We are now entering the time band of the Venus retrograde influence. On July 27, Venus will reverse its apparent direction through the heavens from 2 degrees of Virgo. It will remain in retrograde through September 8. Within 12 trading days of Venus turning retrograde, the U.S. stock market has had a 78% correlation to primary or greater cycles from which prices reversed substantially. But it is not only equities that are affected by this geocosmic event. All markets can experience major turns around this time, for Venus rules values and assets of all kinds. Specifically we associate Venus with money, or currency values. And, as many readers know, currency values are influenced by changes in interest rates, which themselves are a response to perceived or real changes in monetary policy by central banks of the world. A look at currency charts will reveal that as we enter this Venus retrograde period, the Euro is making new all-time highs against the U.S. Dollar, and the Dollar itself is nearly lows of a long-term nature. The Venus retrograde suggests that these currencies could soon experience a multi-week contra trend move. I will speak more to this matter in the Long-Term section......

On a more personal level, Venus also rules relationships, partnerships, and matters of the heart. Old lovers return.

Or new love interests enter one’s life that resurrect issues and patterns of the past that are still not yet mastered. If your love life has been going well with a significant other, be aware. It could reverse and head south now. On the other hand, if a relationship has been experiencing difficulties as of late, it is now possible that any misunderstandings can be corrected, and the relationship can now get back on track. On another level yet, Venus rules purchases and changes in one appearance. Venus retrograde is not a time when one is advised to make large purchases or changes in personal appearance. You may find you wish you could return the purchase, or undo the change in appearance. ... wie Dau 2006

Lond term ?

Bernanke's schlechte Tage kommen im Fruehjahr 2008 sicherlich und dauern mindestens ein Jahr.

Right now there is concern about inflation in many of the capitalistic economies, like the United States. Of interest to astrologers regarding this matter, may be an examination of the chart of the Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke, who was born December 13, 1953, time unknown, but thought to be around noon. Unfortunately I do not have my databank source available with me as I write this, so I cannot cite the source of this data, nor the city of the birth, but I believe it was somewhere in the southeast USA. In any event, He most likely has the Moon around 20 degrees of Pisces, in a T-square to the Sun-Jupiter opposition at 21 Sagittarius and Gemini respectively. This is important, because in Spring of 2008, transiting Uranus will set off this T-square as it conjuncts Mr. Bernanke’s natal Moon. Both Jupiter and Sagittarius rule expansion, and hence inflation. Although Mr. Bernanke has recently expressed concern about inflation, many people have expressed concern that the FED’s emphasis on “core inflation” – that which excludes energy and food costs – is not realistic. With Crude Oil back near all-time highs, and both Wheat and Soybeans at their highest levels in several years, consumers are feeling the stress of these high prices, even though “core inflation” seems tame. One has to wonder if the prospect of sharply rising prices might catch Mr. Bernanke unprepared, and force him to soon raise interest rates, amidst criticism that he waited too long to stem the tide. If so, the transit of Uranus over these key natal points may indicate a period of sudden reversals not just in Mr. Bernanke’s status, but also in financial stability of the United States, and possibly that of many capitalistic economies of the world. It is not only Uranus that will touch of this T-square of this most important central banker, but during this same time (spring 2008-spring 2009), Saturn will be in Virgo, opposite Uranus, and thus creating a grand square to these critical points of Mr. Bernanke’s chart - just about at the time of the USA 2008 presidential election.

http://www.mmacycles.com/weekl…-beginning-july-23,-2007/

Wie denkt ihr reagiert der Goldpreis in Euro wenn der Dollar plötzlich 10 % stärker wird ? Damit rechnet ja im oment offenbar außer ProAurum niemand

Zitat

Original von Eldorado
@Linar....read my lips :D...

Theirs is a gift that you may accept.

@Eldo... spannend wie ein Krimi nochmals merci

linar

Gold Falls as Banks May Increase Sales; Silver Falls (Correct)

By Claudia Carpenter

July 25 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell in London on speculation European central banks will increase sales of the precious metal. Silver also dropped.

The European Central Bank said yesterday three members of the Eurosystem of national banks sold 288 million euros ($397 million) of gold last week, equal to about 18 metric tons and up from 88 million euros the week before. European central banks may sell 157.6 tons in the next nine weeks, or an average of about 18 tons a week, according to World Gold Council figures....
full story: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…A&refer=commodity_futures

bald nix mehr da

linar

linar

Verfleifelt muessen die bald sein um solche Massnahmen einzuleiten, eigentlich klinisch Tod sind einige Bereiche die man nun verteidigt.

This sort of market intervention is both ludicrous and destructive. In the end it will prove to be disastrous as it creates a false sense of security and market disequalibriums.

The first stages of the coming financial/economic nightmare in the US are already being seen and felt in the mortgage/housing market. Had the price of gold been allowed to trade freely (resulting in a much higher price), it would’ve generated higher interest rates in the US, which would have prevented so many people from getting in over their heads in the real estate market. That could be an entire commentary in itself. I think you get the drift.

Yes, the day has been saved this morning. The dollar was on the precipice and was rescued, the gold barometer of increasing trouble was dampened, and the DOW was boosted up to relax nervous investors after yesterday’s drubbing. However, it seems to me that this continued intervention has reached the stage where it is gradually losing its punch. Perhaps that is what the increased volatility in the DOW and rest of the US stock market is telling us.

Surely there was no overnight change in the fundamentals. The Fed is in the same bind they were in yesterday. It won’t be long before the dollar takes out 80 again, gold is on the move higher, and the DOW has another 200 point+ down move.

Adrian got it right last night on this Humpty-Dumpty Day:

Bill,

I predict that July 25 is going to be Humpty-Dumpty Day. The dollar has fallen off a wall going below 80 on the USDX and so all the King’s Horses and all the King’s men will be called in to try to put Humpty together again.

I think they will fail but they will make a lot of noise in the process. It seems to me that there is a belief out there that because the dollar has been kissing the 80 level in 1991, 1992, 1995, 2004 and now again in 2007 that somehow this is a magical limit that can’t be broken. The Cartel will certainly be trying to promote that idea as they bash gold. However, the fundamentals for the dollar have never looked so bad and the fundamentals for gold have never looked so good. Running with the Cartel has been very profitable for many speculative gold shorts over the last 20 years. All that profit can disappear in a flash if they get the next bet wrong. That is likely to be the case because they have lost the habit of thinking for themselves.

When I look at these two awesome charts of the USDX and gold they evoke the words of Clint Eastwood in "Dirty Harry" as he takes aim with his magnum "Go on Punk, make my day!"

Cheers

Adrian

@Freefly

Ich kann mir nicht vorstellen das der Gold in Euro unter 470 faellt und beim SFR unter 800 egal was das PPT nun anstellt.
.
Die anderen Waehrungen werden bei einem weiteren Fall des USD sich angleichend entwerten denn irgendwann kommt der Punkt wo der POG in allen Waehrungen steigen wird und muss.

Bei SFR ist die Marke 1.20 und bei 1.40 beim Euro das ist bei den Waehrungen die unterste Marke wo man den Amis wieder aushelfen wird damit der Handel weiter geht und die Flucht in andere Waehrungen gemindert wird IMO.

Vergesst nicht es sind mehr Euros im Umlauf als USD, selbst der Euro ist Fiatgeld und die zukuenftige Inflation wird auch den aufressen.

Beim CAD ist die Marke soweit stabil bei 1.04 dann muessen auch die Kanadier einschreiten um weiteren Export mit den Amis zu machen.

Die stecken somit alle in der Zwickmuehle aber das Kartenhaus wird irgendwann zusammenbrechen, mit oder ohne Deriviate und weiteren Druckmassnahmen der Zentralbanken.

Alle diese Punkte werden erfuellt sein, es ist nur mehr eine Frage der Zeit die jeder aufbringen sollte der in Gold investiert ist.

Als notwendige Bedingungen für einen nachhaltigen Ausbruch der PM-Notierungen führt er an:

1) A significant correction in the stock market, where gold stocks start to perform better than the rest of the market (first signs are now emerging)

2) A moderation in global economic growth (only the US economy is showing signs of weakness)

3) Gold rising again in all major world currencies (not yet)

4) Widening bond yield spreads (still flat around the world)

In 2008 wird es dann richtig spannend, das ist der Zeitpunkt wo Gold auf 1000 USD steigen koennte und viele Investoren anlocken wird die die Nase voll haben von Bonds sowie Papiergeld das immer weniger wert wird und mal endlich kapieren das Sachwerte und Edelmetalle eine besser Werterhaltung ist.

Mal schaun, kauft die Dips und ueberlegt nicht lange was nun besser ist.

Have a nice day

Gruss

Eldo