Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

    @Dau


    Ja-Ja du alter Pessimist :D


    Siehts nur mehr schwarz, better get some colour in your portfolio.


    Ein Nervenkrieg mit den Goldbugs so einer wie du es bist ist das ganze was im Moment ablaeuft.


    Die schwachen Haende zittern wieder.


    Der Abend ist noch nicht rum, abgerechnet wird viel spaeter.


    XEX

    Ok, Eldo, jetzt hab' ich bei 658 noch nen Gold-OS etwas aufgestockt, UB1ACZ.


    Ich hoffe genau zu dem Zeitpunkt, wo das PPT ins wohlverdiente Wochenende aufbricht :D.


    Dau, wenn Du, wie oben angedeutet, mit Traden den POG/POS ausperformen willst, braucht es gutes Taktgefühl für das Rein-Raus (kannst Dich von Eldo dirigieren lassen, wenn der nicht grad im Urlaub ist ;)). Ansonsten wird nämlich nicht der POG, sondern der Dau-User outperformt ;)

    The high level of risk in the financial sector is one major reason why I buy gold and silver.
    Remember, these precious metals have no accounting games attached to them.
    That gold coin in your hand won't go bust and suddenly vanish into thin air!     ;)


    Jul 26, 2007
    Richard Benson


    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/benson/benson072707.html


    Ps. Gerade Kaffee auf Banknoten versehentlich geschuettet, gleich getauscht so braun und klebrig die waren in ein paar gute Flaschen zum Wochenende, dachte dann Gold ist besser, es brennt auch nicht und kann ruhig Nass werden. :D


    THE ONLY REAL MONEY IN THE END OF THE DAY

    ...Gold and USDX


    Adam Hamilton ;)
    Archives
    Jul 27, 2007


    Over the past couple weeks the financial markets have burst free from their usual summer doldrums to provide some welcome excitement. Prices that have long seemed locked in stasis with trivial daily moves are now witnessing dramatically increased volatility. It is great to see the markets getting interesting again!


    While mainstream attention remains focused on the rising amplitude and frequency of down days in the general stock markets, the volatility in the currencies has also accelerated considerably. As a dollar-denominated American investor and speculator riding the secular gold bull, I've found the behavior of gold and the US Dollar Index particularly intriguing lately.


    Gold, of course, has been the ultimate form of money all throughout history. Its immutable intrinsic value has transcended every era, government, and currency the world has ever seen. Gold is the perfect form of money because it is universally prized and is rare in the natural world. This scarcity of gold ensures that world supplies only grow around 1% a year on average over centuries, so it is immune from inflation...... more....


    And there certainly was a reason for this lockstep opposition. Gold bulls have three stages.


    The first stage is driven by a currency devaluation. The dominant currency, in this case the dollar, grows weaker which gets early contrarian investors interested in gold again following a long gold bear. During Stage One, most of the time dollar weakness indeed was the primary driver of gold just as people wrongly assume it still is today.


    Eventually Stage One matures and investors start to pursue gold for its own fundamental merits.


    This ushers in Stage Two when gold starts rising on its own global investment demand independent of whatever the dollar happens to be doing.


    The transition zone from Stage One to Stage Two is marked above on this chart. It happened in mid-2005 when gold held stable despite a powerful USDX rally.


    Since mid-2005, we have definitely been in Stage Two of this gold bull.
    There are several empirical ways to verify this fact on this strategic chart. First, from 2005 to today, the r-square between gold and the USDX plummeted to 18%. Thus only 18% of the daily moves in gold were statistically explainable by opposing moves in the USDX since early 2005. 18% is not much, virtually uncorrelated, and is a radical departure from the 92% witnessed from 2001 to 2004. These are obviously entirely different environments.


    Second, the last time the USDX approached its long-term support at 80 in late 2004, gold was trading near $450. Today with the USDX once again approaching 80, gold is trading nearly 45% higher near $650.
    If the dollar remained gold's primary driver, then gold would probably be back at late-2004 levels today.


    Clearly something else is driving gold demand besides dollar weakness.


    Finally, gold has powered 181% higher in its bull to date while the dollar has "only" fallen 34% in its bear to date.


    Gold's strength is outperforming the dollar's weakness on the order of 5.3 to 1.


    The dollar bear alone is nowhere near devastating enough to account for the impressive early-Stage-Two strength in gold.


    The bottom line is the dollar's impact on gold is now only a shadow of what it once was on a purely technical and fundamental basis.



    We have moved on into Stage Two where international investors bid up gold on its own fundamental merits independent of the dollar bear. Despite this, the dollar's fortunes still have a big sentimental impact on gold futures traders and hence the tactical gold price.


    So while dollar weakness is no longer necessary for gold to power higher, its lingering psychological impact could make a sub-80 slide look like gasoline thrown on a fire. :D


    As gold approaches its seasonally strong time of the year and the dollar threatens to plunge to new all-time lows, it should generate a lot of positive sentiment for gold. :]


    This can only help gold, silver, and the PM stocks in their coming upleg. ;)


    Adam Hamilton, CPA





    http://www.321gold.com/editori…ilton/hamilton072707.html

    Wenn ich mir die Gold und HUI Charts anschaue geht nun um die Wurst. :rolleyes:


    Bei Gold 648 $ unten und bei 670 $ wo Gold wieder ueberzeugend wirkt, wir sitzen nun in der mitte bei 659 $ an diesen schoenen Abend. :D.....ohne zu aergern !!


    Bei HUI hoffe ich keine 330 am Montag, hoffentlich 350 + wenn ich mich nicht irre :rolleyes:


    330 und 350 und wird sitzen nun auch in der mitte bei 340. HooooUI :(


    IMO, wer in diesen Moment PM's kauft kann nicht viel falsch machen. ;)


    Nach meiner Erfahrung geht eine Korrektur selten laenger als einen Monat, das hier ist ein kleines Erdbeben bis jetzt.


    THINK POSITIVE !!


    Cheers


    XEX


    Next week is another week on the market.

    Zitat

    Original von Eldorado
    Wenn ich mir die Gold und HUI Charts anschaue geht es nun um die Wurst.


    XEX


    Aber wiederholt sich dieses Szenario nicht seit geraumer Zeit mit schon nahezu schnöde gewordener Regelmässigkeit? Wie oft schon ging es scheinbar um die Wurst, ums letzte Gefecht der FED etc.?
    Für einen massiven Anstieg des Goldes vom gegenwärtigen Stand aus braucht es nach wie vor eine totale Panikstimmung auf den Finanzmärkten, also weit mehr als Subprime-Fiasko etc. Solange man täglich Billionensummen mit Gewinn auf dem Währungsmarkt verschieben kann, scheint mir diese Zeit noch nicht gekommen. Gold ist da noch ein Zwergerl dagegen, wenn auch eines mit sehr grossen Ohren und vor allem ohne Pinocchio-Nase. Vorerst (muss nicht so bleiben) nichts Neues beim Gold - es korreliert weiter mit den anderen Märkten, vor allem mit den Aktienmärkten wie schon seit geraumer Zeit.


    "Perhaps the most important market in the world today is the vast network of foreign currencies, where total trading volume, including derivatives and futures, average around $2.9 trillion a day. This is ten times the size of the combined daily turnover on all the world’s equity markets. And as world’s economies have become increasingly integrated, so have the foreign exchange and global capital markets (...)


    Is gold a safe haven from the brutal stock market shakeout? The US M3 money supply is expanding at a 13% annualized rate, its fastest in 30-years, the US dollar is plunging to its lowest levels in decades, and crude oil prices are soaring to record highs. Most logical folks would probably agree these signals are forecasting higher inflation, and bullish for gold, irrespective of the Fed’s contortionism.


    But we have seen this movie before, and during previous periods of panic stricken sell-offs in stock markets, gold has been swept lower by the contagion. If the Dow Jones Industrials are starting to price in a US economic recession however, then gold should outperform the DJI-30 index, no matter which way the markets move.


    Under Paulson’s tenure at the US Treasury, stock market bulls have always been able to rely on their “Plunge Protection Insurance” policies, to rescue their portfolios from nasty corrections. But as the stock markets climb to higher and higher levels, the cost of the Plunge Protection Insurance premiums is also going higher, as mushrooming money supply growth guarantees greater volatility in the markets. "


    http://www.sirchartsalot.com/article.php?id=63


    grüsse


    auratico

    Zitat

    Aber wiederholt sich dieses Szenario nicht seit geraumer Zeit mit schon nahezu schnöde gewordener Regelmässigkeit? Wie oft schon ging es scheinbar um die Wurst, ums letzte Gefecht der FED etc.?


    Zitat

    Für einen massiven Anstieg des Goldes vom gegenwärtigen Stand aus braucht es nach wie vor eine totale Panikstimmung auf den Finanzmärkten, also weit mehr als Subprime-Fiasko etc. Solange man täglich Billionensummen mit Gewinn auf dem Währungsmarkt verschieben kann, scheint mir diese Zeit noch nicht gekommen. Gold ist da noch ein Zwergerl dagegen, wenn auch eines mit sehr grossen Ohren und vor allem ohne Pinocchio-Nase. Vorerst (muss nicht so bleiben) nichts Neues beim Gold - es korreliert weiter mit den anderen Märkten, vor allem mit den Aktienmärkten wie schon seit geraumer Zeit.


    Diese Einschätzung teile ich auch. Man sollte sich nicht wegen jedem Rücksetzer hier verrückt machen lassen und auch nicht immer die Schuld bei einem virtuellen PPT suchen, welches auch nur eine Personifizierung eines "Trader-Teams" in diesem Board darstellt - ich denke es steckt wesentlich mehr dahinter.


    Im GEC-Thread, zum Glück existiert der (!), werden momentan Diskussionen geführt, wo ich den ein oder anderen aus diesem Thread auch gerne mal lesen würde. Wahrscheinlich reicht einigen aber die widersprüchliche Analyse des Tagesgeschehens. Schade.


    Das Daimler keinen Käufer für Chrysler findet finde ich die TOP-Story der Woche, weil hinter dieser Transaktion noch viel mehr steckt als das Geschäft ansich. Es sagt über die Beschaffenheit der Finanzmärkte mehr aus, als hier einige denken. Gold wird nicht stetig ansteigen wie sich das hier alle wünschen. Bei einem Trigger-Event ist Sense mit nachkaufen. Da geht es dann ab - deswegen akkumulieren wenn man kann: egal ob bei 600, 650 oder 700. Das sind mittel- bis langfristig alles Schnäppchen. Einige Minen gibt es mittlerweile geschenkt und damit meine ich Geschenk (Properties, Cashbestand, Mine & Produktionsanlage sind mehr Wert als die MK!)...


    Nice weekend, gentleman!

    Meine zitternden Hände haben heute wieder bei AUY und ADA zugegriffen - wahrscheinlich zu früh, aber vielleicht wird die 660 was bisher die 640 war.


    @€ldo und Milly:
    Warum jetzt Rio Tinto? Alcan stemmen wird nicht einfach, haben die nicht noch etwas Luft nach unten? Bin interessiert, da ich aus BHP raus bin und wieder einen Basiswert suche.
    Thanks
    midas

    'Das Gold dem Einzelnen zu entziehen, ihn seines Anspruchs zu berauben, ist ihr Bestreben, während er es vor ihnen zu verbergen sucht. Sie >wollen sein Bestes<< - - - daher nehmen sie es ihm. Sie horten sein Gold in tiefen Tresoren und zahlen mit Papier, das täglich an Wert verliert.'
    ERNST JÜNGER; EUMESWIL, 1977

    [quote]Original von GOLD_Baron


    Man sollte sich nicht wegen jedem Rücksetzer hier verrückt machen lassen und auch nicht immer die Schuld bei einem virtuellen PPT suchen, welches auch nur eine Personifizierung eines "Trader-Teams" in diesem Board darstellt - ich denke es steckt wesentlich mehr dahinter.
    ...


    Das Daimler keinen Käufer für Chrysler findet finde ich die TOP-Story der Woche, weil hinter dieser Transaktion noch viel mehr steckt als das Geschäft ansich. Es sagt über die Beschaffenheit der Finanzmärkte mehr aus, als hier einige denken. Gold wird nicht stetig ansteigen wie sich das hier alle wünschen. Bei einem Trigger-Event ist Sense mit nachkaufen. Da geht es dann ab - deswegen akkumulieren wenn man kann: egal ob bei 600, 650 oder 700. Das sind mittel- bis langfristig alles Schnäppchen. Einige Minen gibt es mittlerweile geschenkt und damit meine ich Geschenk (Properties, Cashbestand, Mine & Produktionsanlage sind mehr Wert als die MK!)...


    Gold_Baron,
    das war dein bester Beitrag bisher ! :)
    midas

    'Das Gold dem Einzelnen zu entziehen, ihn seines Anspruchs zu berauben, ist ihr Bestreben, während er es vor ihnen zu verbergen sucht. Sie >wollen sein Bestes<< - - - daher nehmen sie es ihm. Sie horten sein Gold in tiefen Tresoren und zahlen mit Papier, das täglich an Wert verliert.'
    ERNST JÜNGER; EUMESWIL, 1977

    Ich schliesse mich an, well done ! Baron ;)
    Wieder mal die depperte triple 6 wegraeumen. :(



    auratico ;)


    Für einen massiven Anstieg des Goldes vom gegenwärtigen Stand aus braucht es nach wie vor eine totale Panikstimmung auf den Finanzmärkten, also weit mehr als Subprime-Fiasko etc. Solange man täglich Billionensummen mit Gewinn auf dem Währungsmarkt verschieben kann, scheint mir diese Zeit noch nicht gekommen.


    Yep !..... Pinoccio kommt schon noch aus dem Wal raus und macht die Runde. :D...nothing last forever.



    midas...


    du zitterst gewaltig. :D


    Ich verkaufte als POG bei 638 meine Supertanker die sehr langsam fahren wie Rio in Tinte etc. und legte physisch nach.


    Rio koennte ich jetzt 12 % guenstiger kaufen.


    Aber wie immer kann man nicht alles nachkaufen. :(


    Erstmal die bargains beim HUI und physisch nachlegen war mir wichtiger, klar ein paar PM Calls weil es so beschissen ist dazu. :D


    Erstmal der grosse Zock bei den Explorer und Juniors die eventuell geschluckt werden von grossen Minengesellschaften fuer ein paar Jahre.


    Ich hole mir die Supertanker spaeter auch wenn sie teurer sind. ;)


    Spaeter dann auch Teck's , Anglos, BVN's, BHP's, FCX's, Cameco's noch dazu und mit physisch Gold im Safe leasst es sich auch gut leben. :D


    Die faden PM tanker wie NEM und GG oder KGC/PAAS/SSRI/SLW's z.B. habe ich bereits alle in der Schublade.


    Ich warte schon lange auf die fetten Dividenden erst recht bei den PM Minen die hoeher als die Zinsen bei der Bank sind.


    .....wollt ihr einen Chrysler ? :D


    Gruss


    XEX

    Hallo Midas,


    bei Norilsk Nickel gab's auch zunächst Zweifel, ob Lionore nicht zu viel sei - da hab' ich mitten in die Schwäche reingekauft und es ging voll auf. Inzwischen sind sie aber relativ teuer.


    Ansonsten gäb's noch Cia Vale do Rio Doce als Rohstofftanker.


    Bei vielen Rohstofffonds sind Cia Vale, Norilsk Nickel und die beiden Aussies die größten Positionen. Aber Fonds mag ja hier keiner, ich warte immer noch, daß Eldo einen aufmacht :]


    Eldo und Goldbaron, in der Tat, toller Beitrag, hoffen wir's.


    In der Praxis glaub' ich aber noch paar mal an die 666.


    Es gibt doch heutzutage so viele schräge Zertis mit lauter "wenn's" und "dann's" - die Zertifikatensei..., äh, ... oops Goldseiten ;) redaktion macht ja dauernd Werbung für.


    WIE WÄR'S MIT NEM ZERTI; DESSEN AUSZAHLUNG DAVON ABHÄNGT; WIE OFT DER POG NOCH DIE 666 DURCHKREUZT ?( ?( :D 8)


    PS, Eldo, fette Dividende gibt's bei KGHM Polska dieses Jahr 14% kein Witz, die Hälfte ist auch schon auf dem Konto.

    ja bitte, oder nein ich kauf ihn mir selber wenn sich meine Gold+Silber OS verzehnfacht haben und der dollar noch was wert ist (weil die dann auch nix mehr wert sind-harhar.) gibt von ABN aber auch Quanto-OS (währungsgesichert-wieso notiert ein Wert in einer Währung und nicht umgekehrt?) allerdings leicht überteuert die Bande-aber langfristig-i.S.v. wie gefräßig der Dollar in the long run ist zahlen sich die weit mehr aus als jeder andere...


    was mich freut ist die Suche nach Sicherheit seitens der Investoren, und Risikoaversionsaufkommen, das sind gute Vorboten für Edelmetalle....


    ich hab mal meine PUT OS verkauft, haben zumindest Verluste meiner heiligen Silber-OS abgefangen...tolle Investmentstrategie...


    den fetten crash erwarte ich erst ab Ende August..der jetzige wird abgefedert durch positive Quartalsergebnisse die ja zu 70% rosig und saftig präsentiert werden und sonstige Feuerwerke. der Doppelboden wird noch geformt, so wie immer wenn man sich die vergangenen chartmuster ansieht. unter 12, unmöglich. USD iih, Öl aaah, milk, wheat, mais, egg, alles teurer, China=Jahr des Schweines=Goldkaufnachfrage², Indien Monunernte großartig, big demand und das kommt alles ab Sept. und so viel Optionen schwelen noch mit kleinem Ameisenkopf und dem Speer in der Hand die den Goldpreis nach oben schiessen können. vorausgesetzt Amerika läuft nicht in die Rezession und das ist mM der einzige Grund wieso Gold so lustlos und laternenlos seit Wochen durch die Steppen zieht. wenn hier der Richtige Weg eingeschlagen wird in Richtung Hyperinflation (das ja Ben Bernanke versichert hat, das ihn zum HeliBen machte) dann ist der Ausbruch echt geglückt. August gilt es durchzustehen und nachzukaufen :rolleyes:


    kam am Mittwoch in meiner mailbox an:


    Are we heading for a 2007 market crash?


    They say history doesn’t repeat it merely rhymes. If that’s the case, we may be setting up for a 2007 market crash. Take a look at this 1987 stock market crash picture:


    1987 stock market crash picture (dow top; bonds below)
    Chart 1 - 1987 stock market crash picture (dow top; bonds below)


    Since the early 80s the stock and bond markets had been motoring along nicely. Bonds made a high in early 1986 and had been building a top formation into 1987 (not shown). Then in early 1987 Bonds moved lower out of their top formation. The weakness continued until early May when all told the Bond market received a 15% haircut.


    The stock market however wasn’t phased. It was quite content to plough ahead even in the face of a deteriorating bond market. In fact, once bonds made a short term bottom in May the stock market celebrated and rallied to fresh highs.


    The summer of 1986 saw bonds and stocks rally together — until July. Bonds began declining again (I’m sure the expectation was a double bottom as the stock market continued to surge).


    Then came Fall (excuse the pun). Bonds broke below their May lows in September and the market finally sat up and noticed. From then on out it was Katy Bar the Door - the stock market proceeded to tumble into what culminated as the largest 1 day decline in history - Black Monday 19th of October 1987.


    Fast forward to today:


    2007 market crash? (dow top; bonds below)
    Chart 2 - 2007 market crash? (dow top; bonds below)


    Bonds made a high at 115 in late 2006 and have been trending lower ever since. The stock market likewise has been unfazed (except for a brief hiccup in March) and has been boldly moving higher.


    We are now entering an especially interesting phase in relation to 1987. Bonds began their latest leg down in earnest in March at which time the stock market surged higher — eerily similar to 1987. Now, Bonds have been staging a moderate bounce since June and if the 1987 picture is to unfold again, the minor rebound would be close to over.


    If bonds turn lower (as they very well could because of the weak Dollar) I would take that as the first sign of caution. If bonds break below their June lows I would take it as a MASSIVE warning.


    Not co-incidentally, gold stocks are beginning to come alive!


    Stock Market Outlook:


    Asset Allocation Equities (ex-resources):


    7% (4% stocks; 3% Put Options) : 93% cash *


    (07/15/2007) 7% (4% stocks; 3% Put Options) : 93% cash


    Credit contagion is definitely spreading and the stock market is waking up to the ramifications.


    Those damn sub prime woes just won’t go away! As mentioned in last week’s letter, credit spreads are on the move and the repricing of debt is no longer confined to sub prime paper but is spreading to higher rated mortgages and corporate debt. The contagion is spreading!


    That’s not good news for the banks. For banks, debt instruments are equivalent to their inventory and the latest credit problems are causing all sorts of bother.


    Banking Index has been lagging the S&P500 (blue) since March
    Chart 3 - Banking Index has been lagging the S&P500 since March


    Now I don’t know about you, but I’ve never met a stock bull market where the banks haven’t made out like bandits. It just doesn’t happen! Therefore the break to new lows in the Banking index tells us that the stock market may be in for some rough times ahead.


    It’s no coincidence that the Japanese Yen has been rallying whilst the homebuilding stocks have sunk to new lows as the above credit issues are playing out. This implies that a good dollop of Yen carry trade was used to finance the recent credit binge. [I also note that the level of private equity bids has dried up significantly.]


    So put it all together for us Greg, where is this blasted stock market going?


    Well first let me say it is uncanny how the market draws one in. Last week I put out this newsletter’s first non-resource stock recommendation. Obviously, the market had drawn me in the point where I felt it was a safe bet. And whilst the jury is still out on AOB, the last 10 days have not been kind and the stock is currently down 15%. Point being that the market pulls everyone in before it unleashes hell.


    And I think hell is close to being unleashed!


    Dollar (blue); Bonds (green); s&p500 (red) each affecting the other after a 3 month time lag.
    Chart 4 – Dollar (blue); Bonds (green); s&p500 (red) each affecting the other after a 3 month time lag.


    The following intermarket picture needs some explaining.


    What we have noticed and written about before is the lag time between the Dollar, Bonds and the Stock Market. To be specific:


    • The US Dollar (top blue line) began its current down leg in January and made a short-term bottom in late April (black vertical line). It has subsequently broken below the April bottom but we’ll discuss that later.


    • Bonds (green line) began their current down leg roughly 3-months later in March and bottomed in June.


    • The S&P500 (red line) started consolidating around June and made a nominal new high in July (approximately 3-months after Bonds began to fall). If the above intermarket correlation holds and they tend to be strong correlations, the next 3 months will not be kind to the stock market. The knock-on effect from a lower Dollar and higher interest rates is coming to bear on the stock market.


    Of further concern is the length of time the Dollar has spent probing critical support at 80. In other words, the longer a market probes support, the greater the probability that support will give way. Regardless, the fact that the Dollar has been trending lower since mid-June implies that bonds will reverse lower in a month or so and challenge their recent lows which is sure to spook the stock market further.


    The final word – IF (and that’s’ a big if) bonds reverse lower over the next 3-4 weeks and subsequently take out their June lows, the 1987 market crash scenario discussed above will take centre stage.


    Strategy: Look to add some put options on a close below the current consolidation at 1490 on the S&P500.


    Gold and Energy Market Outlook:


    Asset Allocation 78% resource stocks / 22% cash *


    Prior allocation (07/15/2007) 70% / 30%


    The fundamental question we need to ask ourselves is do we believe this breakout in Gold stocks is real?


    Lets recap:


    Last week we said that a close above 370 on the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) would cause us to begin buying Richmont Mines Inc. (TSX – RIC; AMEX – RIC) and Australian Gold explorer Goldstar Resources (ASX – GDR). The HUI did close above 370 and we did begin buying but the HUI was unable to hold onto 370 and has subsequently pulled back over the last few days.


    If we believe this is the real deal then we should be thankful for an opportunity to buy these stocks cheaper than before. If that’s not the case and we are about to embark on an extended drop, this would not be a good time be increasing exposure.


    What we do know however is that we are witnessing a flight to quality and a decreased appetite for risk on behalf of market participants.


    We note that credit spreads are widening which is a good indication that investors are demanding more yield for higher risk. We also know that Bonds have caught a bid in a flight to safety out of the stock market. What many investors don’t realize is that yields on 5 year notes are falling quicker than yields on 30-year notes. This implies that investors are fleeing to bonds in general but to shorter maturities in particular – another sign of increased risk aversion. [This by the way is causing the yield curve to widen again which if you remember from past letters is positive for Gold].


    Lest we not forget the Dollar!


    The Dollar index continues to hold on by its fingertips. The probability of a break below support increases the longer we go without a meaningful bounce. Therefore, another sign of risk aversion is the continued movement out of the Dollar and into the Euro.


    So is this the real deal for Gold?


    I would say it is!


    There is no doubting that the trend is towards increased risk aversion and ofcourse nothing is more risk averse than Gold. However, for the time being, investors prefer the comforts of treasuries and foreign currencies. When they realize that this credit problem knows no boundaries and foreign currencies are merely pieces of paper backed by further debt and empty promises they’ll wake up to the value of Gold as the ultimate safe haven.


    In other words we need to grit our teeth, continue to add sensibly to our position and hold on until Gold catches a bid as it invariably will.


    Short term outlook:


    HUI – 370 nemesis continues
    Chart 5 - HUI – 370 nemesis continues


    In my opinion, the most likely outcome is a 2 – 3 week pullback in sympathy with a falling stock market — a case of throwing the baby out with the bath water – and then Gold Stocks reverse higher to challenge the old May high at 400.


    What I will be watching for closely at 400 is confirmation from our faithful indicators that further strength in the gold stocks is likely (which admittedly has not been very gold positive lately):


    • Gold should be outperforming Industrial metals and Oil
    • Yield curve should be widening
    • Credit Spread widening
    • Inflation expectations rising


    The Silver Market


    Silver looks interesting at these levels:


    Silver has once again bounced of its 50 week moving average
    Chart 6 - Silver has once again bounced of its 50 week moving average


    One has to marvel at the power of charts.


    A chart is completely emotionless. Take the above Silver chart for example. Readers will remember the drop in April 2006 from $15 to $10. A 30% haircut. Ouch! But on the chart it’s just a series of lines moving downwards with no sign of the fear we endured at the time!


    What I’m getting at is regardless of emotions, Silver has consistently bounced off its 50 week moving average. Believe it or not, this has been the case with Silver for the entire duration of the bull market since 2001. Based on the recent bounce, it looks like further strength is in store for Silver.


    Strategy & Portfolio Update:


    Hold off on further buying until the Gold and Stock market picture evolves a little more. Watch those stop closely and don’t be afraid to pull the trigger if they are hit!


    Last week I recommended buying into Richmont Mines Inc. (TSX – RIC; AMEX – RIC) and Australian Gold explorer Goldstar Resources (ASX – GDR). In this letter I will profile Richmont and in the next letter Goldstar.


    http://gregsmarketletter.com/

    10 july Update: Are you ready for a strong summer? by David Morgan, top analyst, awesome 3-digit-return picks


    One of the best indicators that gold is ready to continue its upward journey is to see the gold stocks lead the metal itself. The chart below shows the Gold and Silver Index divided by the Gold ETF. In all bull markets gold does best when the ratio is rising. The ratio has been falling for the past year and a half. Gold and the shares have been in a consolidation phase. The downtrend line has now been penetrated to the upside shown by the blue arrow below. This is a significant indicator that we may be entering the next significant move to the upside.


    The U.S. dollar continues to be weak and is at a level where the Central Banks usually come to its rescue. We will have to wait and see what happens this time. The U.S. economy is getting lots of mainstream press about weakness in the housing sector and the U.S. bond market. This has us a bit concerned that perhaps a real slowdown might hold back the precious metals a bit longer.


    The Gold Miners Index


    The junior sector in the mining shares are usually to last to respond, you can see from the graph below that the Gold Miners broke the downtrend on very good volume a few days ago. We look at this as a confirmation that the gold and silver shares may be ready for further gains.


    Looking Back and Looking Forward


    The chart above is updated from an update we did a few months ago. At that time many in our industry were calling for much higher gold prices and a significant breakout. At that time we sent the update shown with the five blue lines indicating that the market had failed to breakout and we were of the opinion that this was another test of the top and it would fail. Looking back we were correct!


    This chart now updated as of today’s close (July 10, 2007) it shows the HUI at the same stalling out area once again as indicated by the orange line with the question mark. We would like to state with certainty what the precious metals markets would do from here, unfortunately we cannot. We have a couple of concerns, first we do not know how much of this current rally is based on short covering, additionally silver is really not confirming gold’s move here and that gives us some caution as well. Lastly, the summer normally gives some “false hope” that this time it will be different and brings some unseasoned bulls into the rally only to disappoint them later near the end of the summer].


    Our course of action has not changed, you should be buying all summer and possibly through the fall as well. If you want technical confirmation and decide you want to get in now, then watch the HUI over the next few days and make sure the move is about 5% above the 360 level (Anm: buy low, sell high?) and both gold and silver have moved up considerably as well. If we get a strong move based upon the HUI to perhaps the 380 level and both precious metals rally strongly then there is a high probability that this summer will be strong indeed.


    The Silver Investor
    All charts courtesy of StockCharts.com


    http://www.silver-investor.com


    nope this summer ist not strong but Schnäppchenladen für GOLD+SILBER

    “History does not always repeat, but sometimes it rhymes.”


    Mark Twain.


    A lot of traders and investors are asking the question: “Is it too early to buy, or should I expect more volatility like we saw during the past few days?”


    Sometimes, by looking at the past, we can find some clues as to what might happen during similar situations in the present.


    Featured is the current gold price chart. While we don’t know what the future holds, we can determine where the support for gold is at present. Support is indicated at $650., (green arrow), the 50DMA and 200DMA are in positive alignment, and both are rising. That is bullish. The RSI and MACD indicators both have room to move up, along with the gold price.


    Some of the damage to the bullish case for gold has been caused by central bank selling during the past few weeks. The positive aspect is that they can only sell it once. In the 1960’s these same central banks (the London Gold Pool), sold tonnes of gold, trying to stop gold from rising above $100./oz. They finally gave up.


    Some traders are being spooked by the ’bounce up’ in the US dollar index. The dollar was overdue, especially so close to it’s multi-year support level at 80.00


    We should consider ourselves blessed to still be able to buy gold at $650+/oz. Think of those investors in Zimbabwe who have to shell out 3 million Zimbabwean dollars just to buy a gram of gold! :D


    Better buy your gold now, for the higher the price goes, the more difficult it will be to obtain the increasing amount of cash that will be required, and the more restrictions the buyer will face.
    Every year the US Federal government publishes 76,000 pages of new regulations. Some of these regulations will no doubt relate to gold.


    We finish this essay with the current XAU, two year, mining stocks chart.


    Most breakouts are tested right after the breakout. This one rose from 130 to 160, and has since given back 50%. It is currently just above the support of the 50DMA and 200DMA. These two moving averages are in positive alignment, and both are rising. We should soon be able to spot signs that the bottom is in, and the next rise can then take place.


    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1185564413.php

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