Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

""Etwa 75% der weltweiten Dollarbestände befinden sich in ausländischen Händen.""""

Und irgendwann wollen sie was gscheites dafuer. :D..dauert noch a bisserl.
Die Alchemisten in China und sonst wo werden Papier in Gold umwandeln...ich auch !

""Es ist Angst, die die Leute in den Dollar treibt ""

Sag mal wie war das im zweiten Weltkrieg, welche Waehrung war da gefragt ???

Ein grosser Krieg um Rohstoffe ist schon am anlaufen, die wenigsten wissen das.

Mein lieber George.......zum Glueck hat er noch ein paar Verbuendete..

Linar, ich hab das Interview mit dem CEO gesehen, der sagte Suedafrika ist zu weit weg :D.. und man will sich strategisch bessere Plaetze kaufen wie Placer und die ""Absicht"" mit Nova Gold und das Geld dafuer hernehmen. Ausserdem hat GFI die bessere Erfahrung mit unseren Personal. :D.

Es ist besser fuer Barrick in Open Pit zu gehen als auf Tiefminen sitzen.

http://gata.org/node/4388

Iran knocks bank boycott, considers dumping dollars

Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2006-09-17 16:55. Section: Daily Dispatches
Iran Vows Legal Action
on U.S. Move Against Bank Saderat

From Agence France-Presse
via Financial Express, Mumbai
Sunday, September 17, 2006

http://www.financialexpress-bd…9/17/2006&section_id=2...

China sees no need for great FX reserves shift

Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2006-09-17 17:04. Section: Daily Dispatches
From Reuters
Sunday, September 17, 2006

http://za.today.reuters.com/ne…type=businessNews&stor...

SINGAPORE -- China has no need to make a big change in the composition of its $954.5 billion stockpile of reserves, the country's foreign exchange regulator said in remarks published on Sunday.

Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), told the publication Emerging Markets that China had already shifted some of its foreign currency reserves out of the dollar, diversifying most recently into the South Korean won. (Gold) ?

"Until now we haven't made a huge adjustment to our reserves composition because China's trade is largely in U.S. dollars," Hu was quoted as saying.

The dollar as a consequence constitutes a large chunk of the currency basket against which China manages the yuan, "so there's no need to shift greatly from this", she added.

Emerging Markets is being published in conjunction with the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. The paper did not say when it interviewed Hu.

She said diversification was a long-standing portfolio management practice for China that predated the scrapping of the yuan's decade-old dollar peg in July 2005 and switch to a managed float.

"Over the past few years, we have already diversified our reserves away from exclusively U.S. dollar to other currencies -- euro, yen and we have also moved now to the Korean won -- so that's already evidence of diversification," she was quoted as saying.

China does not disclose the breakdown of its reserves, the largest stash in the world.
Bankers assume that at least two-thirds of the reserves is invested in dollar assets.

* * * 540 tonnen Gold ist 1% der Forex wenn ich mich nicht verrechnet habe....
Eigentlich koennte die noch 2000 tonnen brauchen dann haben sie 5%..offiziell !

http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TE…/contemporarysolution.mp3

http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TE…ST/DORE/MP3/Historysm.mp3

http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TE…AND%20GOLD/Pay%20Me...mp3

http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TEST/ARTIST/DORE/MP3/Hole.mp3

http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TE…E/MP3/InflationNation.mp3

http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TE…/DORE/MP3/GoldenEagle.mp3

http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TEST/ARTIST/DORE/Disaster.mp3

Global: Commodities as an Asset Class

Stephen S. Roach


In a low-return world, high-yielding commodities have become the siren song of the asset-liability mismatch. Well supported by seemingly powerful fundamentals on both the demand (i.e., globalization) and the supply sides (i.e., capacity shortages) of the macro equation, investors have stampeded into commodity-related assets in recent years. Once a pure play as a physical asset, commodities have now increasingly taken on the trappings of financial assets. That leaves them just as prone to excesses as stocks, bonds, and currencies. This is one of those times.

Previously, I argued that Chinese and US demand were both likely to surprise on the downside -- outcomes that would challenge the optimistic fundamentals still embedded in commodity markets (see my 15 September dispatch, "Whither Commodities?"). I also hinted that the asset play could well reinforce this development -- largely because commodities have now come of age as a legitimate asset class in world financial markets. This companion note develops the asset-driven adjustments that could well lie ahead in commodity markets. The sociological context is key to this dimension of the issue: Virtually every major institutional investor I visit around the world -- from pension funds and insurance companies to mutual fund complexes and hedge funds -- has a large and growing commodity department. The same is true of foreign exchange reserve managers and corporate treasury departments of multinational corporations. One major Wall Street firm is now run by a former commodity executive, and another has turned over management of its global bond division to the architect of its thriving commodity business.

Like all such trends, the expansion of the commodity culture is rooted in performance. It's not just the physical commodities themselves -- most commodity-related assets in cash and futures markets have also delivered outstanding relative returns. For several years, the so-called commodity currencies of Australia and Canada have been on a tear, and big commodity producers like Russia and Brazil have led the recent charge in high-flying emerging markets. Within the global equity universe, the materials sector has been the number-one ranked performer over the past year -- up 14%, or double the 7% returns of second-ranked financials. And, of course, there is the growing profusion of commodity-related ETFs. Meanwhile, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) now collectively manage over $70 billion in assets -- more than three times the total three years ago -- and the IMF reports inflows of approximately $35 billion into commodity futures last year alone." (See the IMF's September 2006 Global Financial Stability Report).

Significantly, the consultants are now urging institutional investors to implement a major increase in their asset allocation weightings to commodities. A recent Ibbotson Associates study recommends that commodity weightings in a multi-asset balanced portfolio could be increased, under conservative return and risk-appetite assumptions, to a high of nearly 30%. That would be more than three times current weightings and greater than seven times the estimated $2 trillion value of current annual commodity production (see T.M. Idzorek, "Strategic Asset Allocation and Commodities," March 2006, available on http://www.ibottson.com). The Ibbotson analysis praises commodities for their consistent outperformance and negative correlations with other major asset classes -- going so far as to praise commodities for actually providing the protection of "portfolio insurance." It concludes by stressing "&there is little risk that commodities will dramatically underperform the other asset classes on a risk-adjusted basis over any reasonably long time period." Laboring under the constant pressure of the asset-liability mismatch, yield-starved investors can hardly afford to ignore this enthusiastic advice. As a result, with multi-asset portfolios likely to have ever-greater representation from commodities, the financial-market dimensions of the commodity trade are likely to become increasingly important.

This transformation from a physical to a financial asset alters the character of commodity investments. Among other things, it subjects the asset to the same cycles of fear and greed that have long been a part of financial market history. From tulips to dot-com and now probably US residential property as well, the boom all too often begets the bust. Yale Professor Robert Shiller puts it best, arguing that asset bubbles arise when perfectly plausible fundamental stories are exaggerated by powerful "amplification mechanisms" (see Shiller's, Irrational Exuberance, second edition, 2005). That appears to have been the case in commodities. In this instance, the amplification is largely an outgrowth of the China mania that is now sweeping the world -- the belief that commodity-intensive Chinese hyper-growth is here to stay. That's why I blew the whistle on this one: Not only do I believe that the Chinese authorities will make good on their efforts to cool off an over-heated economy, but I also suspect they will succeed in engineering a well-publicized shift toward more efficient usage of energy and other commodities (see my 2 June essay, "A Commodity-Lite China"). The potential for post-housing bubble adjustments of the American consumer could well be the icing on this cake -- not only lowering US commodity demand through reductions in residential construction activity but also by reducing end-market demand in China's biggest export market. The recent data flow hints that such adjustments are now just getting under way -- underscored by reports of a meaningful slowing of Chinese investment and industrial output growth in August and a continuing stream of bad news from the US housing market.

Meanwhile, the performance of commodity-based financial assets is starting to fray around the edges. That's true of energy funds as well as those asset pools with more balanced portfolios of energy, metals, and other industrial materials. While most of these investment vehicles have outstanding 3- and 5-year performance records, the one-year return comparisons are now solidly in negative territory for many of the biggest commodity funds. And this is occurring at the same time that the MSCI All-Country World index has delivered a 14% return for global equities over the past year. Underperformance for a few months is hardly cause for concern, but for both relative- and absolute-return investors, negative comparisons over a 12-month period are raising more than the proverbial eyebrow. As usual, the "hot money" has been the first to head for the exits, but more patient investors may not be too far behind. Shiller-like amplification mechanisms could well compound the problem. Just as they led to near parabolic increases of many commodity prices in March and April, there could be cumulative selling pressure on the downside -- taking commodity prices down much more sharply than fundamentals might otherwise suggest.

For my money, there is far too much talk about the globalization-led commodity super-cycle. It gives the false impression of a one-way market, where every dip is buying opportunity. Yet commodities as a financial asset are as bubble-prone as any other investment. As is always the case in every bubble I have lived through, denial is deepest when asset values go to excess. That's very much the case today. After three years of extraordinary outperformance, denial over the possibility of a sustained downside adjustment in commodity prices is very much in evidence -- underscoring the time-honored sociology of an asset class that has gone to excess. Meanwhile, China and US-housing-related fundamentals are going the other way -- setting up increasingly tender commodity markets for unpleasant downside surprises on the demand side of the global economy. The herding instincts of institutional investors could well magnify the price declines -- when, and if, they emerge. All this suggests there is still plenty of life left in the time-honored commodity cycle.

Barton Biggs always used to chide me that "Dr. Copper" was his favorite economist -- possessing an uncanny knack to provide a real-time assessment of the state of the global economy. I suspect that the good doctor has now taken his or her finger off the pulse of the real economy and spends far more time looking at Bloomberg screens. Pity the poor patient -- to say nothing of the doctor!



Your always worried about a bubble analyst,

Iran said on Monday the idea it was prepared to shelve uranium enrichment for a limited time had been misunderstood by the West and that it had made no decision yet.

Annan warns of Iraq civil war

2006-09-19

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan warned on Monday that urgent action is needed by the entire international community to drag Iraq back from the brink of all-out civil war.
Speaking as Iraqi leaders defended their policies to potential aid donors at the UN general assembly, Annan joined their appeal for a quick and massive international effort to strengthen the embattled government in Baghdad and "bring Iraq back from the brink".

"If current patterns of alienation and violence persist much longer, there is a grave danger that the Iraqi state will break down, possibly in the midst of full-scale civil war," Annan said.

Klar das auch, wie alles ""tangible"".
Da hat man wenigstens was.
Anstatt einen Fiat der kaputt gehen wird.

GUTSO !!

Gutso, der Dow/Gold Ratio wird sich schon noch aendern in der Zukunft.
Funny,... flying pigs
Ich habe noch Luft und kanns nicht lassen, ich bin schon wieder am nachladen mit calls und physisch bei 581 USD.
Boogiewoogie Musik von Steve Dore laeuft im Hintergrund.
Besser als CNBC,ob ich beim tanzen hinfliege sehe ich bald.

""Am Goldmarkt müssen wir jetzt wirklich aufpassen. Würde der HUI auf ca. 270 stürzen, wären das ganz einfach Kaufkurse. Wovor man sich hüten muß ist ein langsames tiefer und tiefer gehen der Goldkurse. Deswegen macht mich die jüngste Erholung auch eher besorgt.""

Was besorgt dich denn ?, hoffentlich sehen ich keinen HUI 270, Kaufkurse sind jetzt, besonders fuer Neueinsteiger IMO.
Wahrscheinlich bist besorgt weil die 270 nicht kommen zu kaufen.
Ja alle warten auf noch tiefere Preise, man will ja alles billig grabschen.
Ich bin mit einen guten Mittelkurs zufrieden und ab in die Schublade.

Saccard, du bist immer noch so positiv mit dem USD, der geht vielleicht noch auf 1.20 zum Euro dann schmiert er ab wie Sinclair es auch meint.
30% ueberbewertet ist der IMO.
Oil kann bis auf 200 Dollar steigen in den naechsten 10 Jahren, frag mich nicht wo Gold dann steht.
Die Oilproduzierenden Laender hatte seit Jahr 2000 Zeit Gold fuer 12 Barrel zu kaufen, auch der Ratio wird sich aendern, z.Zt ist der bei 9.4 B/Unze.

Der Ratio gehoert eigentlich auf die 20, mich wunderts das die nicht offiziell mehr kaufen.
Ich halte nicht viel vom USD und Bonds wie du weisst.
Fuer mich ist das ein falsches Versprechen das immer weniger wert wird.
Wenn Dollar dann Singapore, Kanada bald 1:1, da fuehle ich mich besser.

Gruss

Eldo

Da stehts ja Saccard... De ja vui ??

Z.Zt. beim Punkt 1 sind wir. IMO

The crash of the stock market had worsened the already severe structural damages of the United States’ economy, but the worst had yet to come due to the erroneous policies implemented by the US government:

1) In the first place, the Federal Reserve decided to defend the value of the dollar above anything and imposed higher interest rates in order to prevent the money from being turned into gold. The obvious happened, the heavily indebted consumers repudiated their debts due to the rise in interest rates and triggered a banking crisis.

2) Secondly, the FED dried up the economy by keeping the money supply very tight. This submerged the nation in a cash flow crisis and aggravated the crash in both the stock and real estate markets.

3) Finally, in an attempt to fight inflation and maintain a balanced budget, taxes were raised reducing the purchasing power even further.