Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Ja wer ist denn da schon wieder, nicht mal am Wochenende hat man seine Ruhe.

Bist nun wieder beim Hintertuerl reingekrochen.

S I L V E R F R O S C H A L L T I M E L O W !!!!!

Anstatt Grains, wie waere es mit mehr brain ?

Eine Schande fuer Oesterreich, moechtes du das sein ?

Wennst weiter so machst Silversqueeze wirst wieder gesperrt.

Wann begreifst du eigentlich das es nichts bringt.

Lasse mich bitte aus deinen Kommentaren raus, wir beide habe alles besprochen.

An einen weiteren Schlagabtausch bin ich nicht interessiert, das Leben ist zu kurz um sich zu aergern.

Komm bitte zur Sache wenn du es kannst und werde nicht persoenlich.

Dafuer kannst eine PN schreiben, die anderen User interessiert das bestimmt nicht.

Das hier ist ein Gold und Silber Forum und kein psychotischer Treffpunkt wo man auf anderen rumhacken kann ohne Konsequenzen.

VASTEHST ????...und jetzt lass mich bitte in Ruhe.

Freu dich lieber ueber den POG und POS im Moment.

Gruss

Eldo

Winston Churchill hat schon Recht, es ist besser zu schweigen und als Idiot erkannt zu werden.

Drei Scenarios gibt es fuer den Dollar sagt Crooks.

Falls er zu stark abschmiert dann gibt es Zinserhoehungen was der Housing Market bestimmt nicht braucht z.ZT.
A controlled soft landing ist was der FED eigentlich will, schafft er es oder gibt es eine Panik. ?.....
Was glaubt ihr welches der Scenarios tritt ein.

The "dollar smile" is a concept developed by Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Jen. It highlights the three major scenarios that could determine if the U.S. dollar will go up or down, as we head into 2007.

1. The left side of the smile reflects an appreciating U.S. dollar if global risk comes back into the financial system. Despite the ongoing problems facing the U.S. economy and the much talked about structural problems that are supposed to hurt the dollar, e.g. budget deficit, trade deficit, etc. the dollar could rally significantly if there's a shakeup to the global financial system. And there is a scenario unfolding that could do just that.

You see, U.S. fund managers hold approximately US$18 trillion in their hedge funds, which help prop up the U.S. dollar. These amounts dwarf the foreign exchange reserves held by Asian central banks. And I suspect much of this US$18 trillion investment is highly leveraged on borrowed money, based on the latest data from the Bank of International Settlements and International Swaps and Derivative Association.

Leveraged bets by institutional fund managers have been successful thus far because there's been little volatility in financial markets and because stocks and bonds have continued to trend higher and higher on this wall of money.

But this game, or a large portion of it, could end quickly if there is a major institutional bankruptcy or political shock. Given the general level of euphoria across the global stock and bond markets, this type of surprise could easily trigger a rush back into short-term U.S. deposits for safe-keeping. That would spark a significant rally in the buck no matter what the condition of the U.S. economy is.

2. The middle of the smile reflects a depreciating dollar against the major currencies as the U.S. economy continues to muddle through . This view takes into account the ongoing weakness in the U.S. economy led by U.S. consumers finally surrendering to falling housing prices, rising energy prices, and too much debt. This would shift the expectation among currency players from a Federal Reserve Bank that is virtually "on hold" to one that is looking to cut rates as fast and as often as it can going forward. This could be a double-whammy for the buck. If growth falls and interest rates fall, then the buck loses the two fundamental supports to keep it afloat against the major currencies. It would be the green light traders need to dump dollars. And with overall sentiment in the market still being dollar bearish, this would validate expectations and likely lead to more and more selling.

3. The right side of the smile reflects an appreciation in the dollar on the back of a U.S. growth surprise . Even though U.S. consumers have taken a hit from the falling housing market, consumers have overall, shown surprising resiliency. Just a few months ago, many economists expected that the surge in energy prices -coupled with the downturn in housing and rising interest rates - would hammer consumer spending and push the U.S. economy to the edge of recession.

There is no doubt all these factors have slowed U.S. growth. And housing is still the major wildcard that could push the consumer over the edge. But, some economists are beginning to believe that if the U.S. job market remains firm, U.S consumer spending and growth could reaccelerate. This rather optimistic crowd is labeling the current economic slowdown a "mid-cycle pause." That would surprise the market and it would shift current expectations toward higher U.S. economic growth and higher U.S. interest rates. And that's good news for the buck.

Only time will tell which of these scenarios plays out. I'll be on the lookout for any indicator that favors one scenario over the other. But rest assured, no matter which direction the dollar is headed, I'll tell you how to play it. Stay tuned.

JACK CROOKS, Currency Director
On behalf of The Sovereign Society
http://www.crooksoncurrencies.com

Dollar assets hard to diversify, Chinese FX official admits

Submitted by cpowell on 02:48PM ET Saturday, November 25, 2006. Section: Daily Dispatches
From Reuters
Saturday, November 25, 2006

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/061125/3/2tgsm.html

Saturday, November 25, 2006

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20…ustraliachinaindiaecon...

SYDNEY, Australia --

Western nations must prepare for a future dominated by China and India, whose rapid economic rise will soon fundamentally alter the balance of power, former World Bank chief James Wolfensohn has warned.

Wealthy countries were failing to understand the impact of the invevitable growth of the two Asian powerhouses, Wolfensohn said in the 2006 Wallace Wurth Memorial Lecture at the University of New South Wales at the weekend.

"It's a world that is going to be in the hands of these countries which we now call developing," said Australian-born Wolfensohn, who held the top job at the global development bank for a decade until last year.

Rich nations needed to try to capitalise on the inevitable emergence of what would become the engine of the world's economic activity before it was too late, he said.

"Most people in the rich countries don't really look at what's happening in these large developing countries," said Wolfensohn, who is now chairman of Citigroup International Advisory Board and his own investment and advisory firm.

Within 25 years, the combined gross domestic products of China and India would exceed those of the Group of Seven wealthy nations, he said.

"This is not a trivial advance, this is a monumental advance."

Wolfensohn said that somewhere between 2030 and 2040, China would become the largest economy in the world, leaving the United States behind.

By 2050, China's current two trillion US dollar GDP was set to balloon to 48.6 trillion, while that of India, whose economy weighs in at under a trillion dollars, would hit 27 trillion, he said, citing projections by investment bank Goldman Sachs.

In comparison, the US's 13 trillion dollar income would expand to only 37 trillion -- 10 trillion behind China.

"You will have in the growth of these countries a 22 times growth between now and the year 2050 and the current rich countries will grow maybe 2.5 times."

In light of these forecasts, it was clear that Western nations and Australia were not investing enough in educating the next generation to be able to take advantage of the coming realignment, he said.

"The fact that not enough of our young people are preparing themselves with knowledge, experience, residence and language to deal certainly with China, although India has the benefit of an English language, it does seem to me that it presents a formidable challenge."

Wolfensohn pointed to both China's and India's recent substantial investments in Africa as an example of how the two emerging giants were exercising their increasing clout on the global stage.

"Within the last two weeks the world has been put on notice that Africa is no longer the basket case that everybody had historically thought it was but is now front and centre in terms of development by India and China."

The phenomenal rally by the two countries was a return to form rather than a novelty, he said, as they together had accounted for 50 percent of global GDP from the 1500s until the industrial revolution reduced that to between five and seven percent.

Hier eine andere Meinung:

Death Knell of the US Dollar...

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund112706.html

Clive Maund
Nov 27, 2006

The Chinese, in particular, have an ancient and deep culture, and when it comes to strategic considerations, can outthink - and outflank - virtually anyone. So what's going on? - why have they accepted a mountain of paper and IOUs over many years in exchange for real hard work and a vast quantity of real tangible products? The Chinese, and others, have done this to carry them over a bringing period during which they have built up their economies and infrastructure. Their goal - which they are fast moving towards - is to arrive at the point where there is sufficient domestic and regional demand that they no longer need to rely on orders from countries like the United States. At this point - which we may arrive at sooner rather than later - things will become very dangerous for the US dollar, and the situation is actually far worse than many now believe, because the Chinese and others are preparing to WRITE OFF THEIR DOLLAR ASSETS AS A BAD LOSS - they will try to get what they can for them, of course, but otherwise will be ready to fall back on domestic and regional demand and tough it out, thus severing the umbilical with the United States, which will be left stranded, with no takers for its funny money, a gutted manufacturing base, astronomic debts and fiscal chaos, and a huge military it can no longer afford to service.

When the forces of globalization are let loose, as they have been, this is actually a natural and inevitable process, as orders and work simply move to the lowest bidders. Europe and the United States are uncompetitive and will be sidelined by the powerhouse economies of China and South East Asia. The Chinese and other trading partners with the US are already rotating out of dollars and into Dinars, Euros, commodities generally and Precious Metals at an ever increasing pace. As we already know, this has been a primary driver for the commodities boom. The recent attempt by the United States to maintain its dominance by brute force - a big reason why Iraq was invaded was that it was planning to sell its oil in Euros - is right now, quite literally, running into the sand, and it is now only a question of when, not if, the helicopters arrive on the rooftops to evacuate the last of the embattled US service personnel, like in the film "The Killing Fields", although a last wildly dangerous attack on Iran still cannot be ruled out.

Elliott Wave Gold Update X

Alf Field
27 Nov, 2006

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field112706.html

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED ... Atze

Einen manipulierten Markt kann man schwer einschaetzen.

Have a nice day

XEX

Comment on Jim Sinclairs Website:

What I am presenting to you is the thirty five year picture of the USDX, focused on the major flat bottom triangle from 1984 to the present.

Clearly there has been and will again be a battle royal at .8050. The most recent rally in the dollar from .8050 to .9100 in the long term picture was a dead cat bounce. Each of the following battles at .8050 will be decidedly less energetic or may not even exist.

The point of this Sunday exercise is that a break below .8050 confirmed on either three closes below or a 3% move if you are a wimp, is alarming. Alarming because in the keep it simple sense the price objective of that event is a fall to .4050 to .4150.

If the dollar is cut in half from here then it is reasonable to assume gold will double from here. As such, a price objective for gold of $1260 is most certainly rationale when you consider gold in terms of 1980 (gold’s last high) dollars.

There are many other reasons and means of producing the above conclusions, yet I am determined to pass along the knowledge of Seligman and Livermore to you in its magnificent simplicity.

One of those lessons is that the longest possible price history chart will in the simplest terms give you the best conclusion. The best conclusion is the best timing with the best profit and the clearly determinable stop position.

It is for this reason along with energy that I have considered the Canadian dollar as the best parking place for money whilst I was waiting to shift to gold at each low.

We should not discount energy because with no hurricanes and balmy winter so far crude still is trying to better $60. Crude is purely political and the Middle East becomes more dangerous every day. Media might like to make you believe otherwise. I heard comments concerning the next chapter in Iraq today was to open in a positive manner. Half that statement is true. The first half only.

In this train of thought now please review the Sinclair Formula followed by the Green Hornet Doctrine. I believe you cannot find meaningful fault with either.

Add to the Sinclair Formula and Green Hornet Doctrine the thesis of selling one third of your position into strength, TA guided, and you have the total package.

If you remain disciplined the next two years will be the best of your life.

That is my wish for you.