Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Ich sehe die Woche mehr als Unterhaltung vor 1000 $...

The yellow metal remains vulnerable to a visit near the $875/$885 area and players will now have to show that they indeed have the guts to follow the recommendations (make that outright commands) of the perma-bulls to buy on every single one of the dips. At least one of those soothsayer's gut feelings were totally in error, as the rally that was supposed to add $25 to gold on Friday and another $25 this morning, not only failed to materialize but turned into precisely the opposite scenario. Silver dropped 6 cents to $16.70 bid while platinum rose $35 to $1791.00 and palladium moved $13 higher to $424.00 per ounce.

Here is an eye-opening statement/forecast you can easily find by running your own Google news search. [Yes, we could exclusively bring you stories about $1,000 gold and falling skies, However, as an information platform (and the best one at that) it is incumbent upon us to present the aspects that generally do not make it into the field of vision of the average precious metals investor. At that point, they can make up their own minds better, as they are closer to being fully aware of both sides of the proverbial coin/story.] Bloomberg reports that:

"Ben S. Bernanke's decision to lower interest rates 1.25 percentage points last month will end the dollar's two-year slide, according to the world's biggest currency traders."

Who dares to be of this opinion? Oh, only Deutsche Bank (the largest global currency trading firm), UBS AG, (the second largest), and BNP Paribas - (Bloomberg's most accurate of currency forecasters). Newsflash for the dollar's morticians:

"Paris-based BNP, the most accurate of 31 firms surveyed about their currency predictions for the second half of 2007, is among the most bullish on the dollar in 2008 with its forecast of $1.36 per euro by yearend. Zurich-based UBS predicts $1.35. The median estimate calls for a 5.4 percent increase to $1.40 by the end of this year and a 6 percent gain to $1.32 in 2009. The dollar weakened 10.6 percent in 2007 and 11.4 percent in 2006 after strengthening 12.6 percent in 2005."

"Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest currency trader, predicts an 8 percent gain in the dollar this year as the euro- zone economy expands 1.6 percent, lagging behind the 1.9 percent growth projected for the U.S."

When you play with billions of currency units and recognize that the ECB has been behind the curve and that the time may have come to move back into the greenback, it is safe to assume you need to know what you are talking about. Further:

" We remain wedded to the view that the USD (U.S. dollar) will ultimately determine gold prices; although currently under pressure, we believe the likelihood of a USD recovery later this year holds the prospect of eventually drawing precious metals lower," James Steel, metals analyst at HSBC in New York, told clients in a research note." Wait, he could be part of the 'cabal' - Yes, the cabal that happens to hold in custody the very metal the perma-bulls salivate over when pointing to the phenomenal interest in gold of late.

While this is a very early and perhaps small crack in the outer shell of the casket that the greenback had been placed into by the bottomless pit theorists, and significant dips may still be in the cards for the US dollar as the (thus far painful) first quarter unfolds, the sentiment is now undergoing the proverbial battleship turn and could show us a different picture after the middle of the year.

Thus, the possibility of one more spike back to $950 (or higher, even to $1000, if you insist) notwithstanding, the US dollar is very likely putting in a long-term, rounding bottom as we speak. And, yes, Dennis Gartman says that: "We have overstayed our welcome in gold." Just so you that you are aware. Gold's post-September 7 mega-rally (that's where our rally really was!) was most clearly defined by the slump in the US currency that the series of rate cuts have engendered. The upside potential is shrinking, the further one looks out. But, feel free to disagree with these firms and these analysts.

May we also remind that this is not about the price forecasting Olympics or about which camp prevails. This is about speculators obviously wanting to know what may come next. As well, about novice investors being tempted to jump aboard just because they caught a headline somewhere. There is a middle ground. A prudent person should keep around 10% of their wealth in the metal, and hope not to have to sell it. Who wishes to cash in on their life insurance policy before the sand runs out? It does not get any simpler than that.

Best Regards,

Jon Nadler
Senior Analyst
Kitco Bullion Dealers Montreal

888....back to square one...bis Freitag bombardieren die Banker erstmal weiter den Goldpreis.

Gold unter 600 Euro wuerde den Herren besonders gefallen.

Kauft in den naechsten Tagen .....wer noch fluessig ist.

Ansonsten Augen zu oder Zipfelmuetze ueber den Kopf ziehen.

Das Kopfweh oder der Kater sollte spaetesten bis Freitag weg sein Schablonski.

Denke dir nichts, ich habe ins fallende Messer bei 894 $ gegriffen, egal, der Schnitt zaehlt.

Ein paar Schwarzseher sagen es koennte bis auf 840$ fallen da man nun auf den USD scharf ist.

Ehrlich gesagt ich kann es mir nicht vorstellen,,,warten wir mal diese Woche ab, bei 870 liegen heftige Widerstaende die halten sollten/muessen !

Heli Ben, im Auftrag von... hat wahrscheinlich der EZB befohlen USD zu kaufen, Gold zu verkaufen oder die Zinsen zu senken.

Diese Nutten (Moneymasters) machen das auch...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdfCKDq95yE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptLZXh9Cdjk&feature=related

Die Amis koennen nun waehlen wen sie wollen...alle sind sie im Club CFR.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-jTpQSLCq_Q

Soweit ich weiss befindet sich alles Gold zu 70% in privater Hand, wer ist das ?

Rockefeller- Rothschild zum Grossteil vermute ich, die befehlen das Gold vom Volk verkauft wird und man dafuer Papier bekommt, spaeter wenn sie genug Gold haben ordern sie an das die selben Gangster die es verkauft habe es nun hoeher bewerten und der arme Buerger ist mit Klopapier abdeckt statt mit Gold.
Klar die Chinesen, Inder, Russen, etc kaufe ebenfalls, aber wohin geht das Gold der EZB oder SNB in Wirklichkeit ?

IMO R & R kontrollieren die groessten Zentralbanken und somit den Goldpreis mit einen Hintergedanken.

Alles Helicopter Money was da reinfliesst.
Vitaminspritzen, damit die Boersen nicht weiter abfallen, sonst nichts !
Der Kleinanleger rennt in die Bullenfalle wenn er mitmacht.
Ist aber eine gute Gelegenheit nun auszusteigen wenn man mich fragt.
Raus aus dem Dax und rein in Gold/ Silber/Hard Assets, sowie die PM Aktien.

Fasching Dresswechsel...lustig...in wenigen Tagen wissen die schon die Zukunft.

Jeder will USD leihen, viele ZB's helfen mit.....und ein Wunder ist geschehen das der USD bei Zinsenkung steigt.

Ja, eine zeitlang, die auf CNBC sagen schon 2.5% sicher und dann ist alles ok.

Da koennt ihr nun sehen wie schnell ein Problem weg ist, besonders in der Karneval Zeit.

Hellau Jekken...