Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Its a good weekend for the gold and silver bugs... enjoy the sun on gold.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuG_316cPMY&feature=related

Coming back to live ... Brothers in Gold and Silver.

XEX

Next week is another week.... the battle goes on, the winner is ? ..... Gold and Silver ... IMO

Take care, buy or hold the line...

XEX

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjt0av-GWak

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hkjkTe5kZE

Gold, What Gold?

By David Galland, Casey Research

Wonder what's happening with the gold market lately? So has David Galland, of Casey Research. (publishers of Casey's International Speculator) Here he offers some insights into the current state of the precious metal... and the companies that mine it.

One of the most intriguing aspects of the current market is the dearth of major discoveries so far in this cycle. This despite record amounts of money spent on exploration since this bull market began in 2001. Older and smarter minds than mine, minds resting in the cranium of Explorers’ League members, for instance, have been convinced that a number of major discoveries would be announced. But so far, other than a small handful that appear to hold the stuff, there has only been one legitimate elephant bagged; by the team of Aurelian (T.ARU). Unfortunately, the carcass of that particular elephant rests entirely within the sketchy outlines of the nation of Ecuador where the locals are currently circling like a pack of hungry hyenas. It has been our contention that what was needed to light the fuse on the junior exploration stocks would be, in no specific order:

Sustained higher gold prices.
Improving financials and free cash flow of the major producers.
A discovery to heat the blood of the investing community.
So far, we have had (1) and we are beginning to see (2), but (3) has proved remarkably elusive. Now, don’t misunderstand. You can have a whopper of a bull market in these stocks without the discovery – that was the case in the 1970s bull market. But a discovery that fires the imagination can jump-start things in a big way, no question about it.

Evidence of that statement is provided by the gold share bull market of the mid-1990s, the most powerful to date, which occurred against a back drop of flat to falling gold prices. In case some of the big winners from that market have slipped from your memory, they include returns such as; Cartaway, up 26,040%; Pacific Amber, up 4,376%; Arequipa, up 5,692%, and so on and so forth. So, What’s Going On? According to MineWeb, Peter Munk, the somewhat unpopular chairman and acting CEO of Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold producer, stated at the company’s recent AGM that there have been "virtually no new discoveries." While we might disagree around the edges of that statement, Chairman Munk is technically correct in that the level of discoveries being made is a small fraction of that needed to replace the depleting reserves of the gold producers. In short, we appear to have reached the era of Peak Gold.

Whereas a major discovery used to be 10 million ounces or more, the threshold for attention-getting discoveries these days has fallen to more along the lines of 1 to 3 million ounces… and even those are hardly falling off the trees. Viewed from the perspective of an investor in the junior resource sector, this lack of discoveries means the fuse is lit – starting with straight-up supply and demand fundamentals – for a rocket shot tomorrow. Adding boosters to the rocket, we have a commodities bull market that shows no sign of ending anytime soon and, while the U.S. dollar will periodically rebound, it is not going to somehow reinvent itself as sound money in our lifetime.

Importantly, as you can clearly read between the lines in Chairman Munk’s words, once the majors get cashed up and serious about replacing their reserves, they are going to have to look downstream to the juniors with discoveries… even if those discoveries are below the 5-million-ounce threshold they previously required to even consider taking an ore body into production.

A Risk and an Opportunity

Of course, lowering the threshold on deposit size will require trade-offs. For example, in order to be considered for an acquisition, a smaller deposit will almost certainly have to be near surface and open-pittable. It will also have to be near good infrastructure, and located in a jurisdiction with good laws and reasonable taxation. There is, in this situation, an opportunity and a risk.

Starting with the latter, if your portfolio now includes companies going after deposits in the one- to five-million-ounce range, you need to make sure they are not in a remote location, or will require going underground or building a mill to process sulfides. (Under 1 million ounces? Fuggedaboudit!)

As for the opportunity, while the odds and the amount of exploration spending still favor that we’ll see the discovery of at least one and maybe two monster deposits in this cycle (there are a couple of companies advancing projects with that potential), and early shareholders will make fortunes as a result, there has rarely been a better time to invest in junior exploration companies with modestly sized projects in good locations. That said, you should still be focusing only on projects with at least 2 million ounces, or the strong potential of same.

In other words, take the opportunity in these down markets to focus on getting positioned ahead of the majors… that’s where the big money will be made as things gather steam again going forward.

Fazit: Nehmt nur Juniors die mindestens 1 million Unzen Gold nachweisen koennen ins Depot.

Strength

Gold futures surged late in the week as crude oil's rally to a fresh record high above $126 a barrel boosted the precious metal's appeal as an inflation hedge.
Junior mining and natural resource stocks represented by the S&P/TSX Venture Exchange gained roughly 2 percent this week as current market strength appears to be expanding into the small-cap arena.
The recent rally in the U.S. dollar subsided this week in response to rising fuel costs and growing inflation expectations.

Weakness

According to a recent Kitco report, trading desks are still seeing weak retail investor demand for bullion and large-spec traders are continuing to sell into strength.
Imports of gold to India have plummeted this year because of high prices, declining by 42 metric tons in the first quarter based on data from the Bombay Bullion Association.
Additionally, sales for the annual Akshaya Tritiya festival, which normally sees large gold buying, may be down by about 40 percent this year, says MNC, a large bullion wholesaler.

Opportunity

Gold may rally further in the near term as the ratio of crude oil-to-gold has reached nearly three standard deviations from the typical trading relationship, possibly suggesting that gold may strengthen to catch up with oil.
The trend of producer dehedging continues as gold hedge books of major mining companies fell 18 percent to 22 million ounces in the first three months of the year.
Gold and platinum miners sounded more optimistic about South Africa's electricity situation in their March quarterly reports, but they still warned that uncertainty about the sustainability of power supply made it difficult to forecast future production levels.

Threat

Venezuela continues to block access to new gold projects and threaten other mining concessions in an effort to tighten its control of natural resource assets.
Environmental Minister Yubirí Ortega said the country would not give permits for any open-pit mines and will not allow companies to look for gold in its vast Imataca Forest Reserve.

Energy....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Gz4mk5Jh5U&NR=1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IniP49TCWyo&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJv7VxeWe3E&feature=related

Oh, forget it, buy BP or Excson as usual...

WE NEED YOUR MONEY,stay stupid !!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woVLV9q1y-U&feature=related

Harald Seigel Show...16th May 2008

Jetzt ist die Zeit, die letzte Chance Gold unter 1000 $ zu kaufen, letzte fuer Silber unter 20 $.
Inflation steigt nun enorm an mit 127 $ Oil,nichts als Luegen von der US Regierung, die Spannung steigt mit Israel/Iran,man druckt aus vollen Rohren weiter Geld, die Vorhersagen fuer Gold sind 2500-3000 $, Silber 100 - 150 $, die Flucht in Sachwerte steigt langsam an,die FED rennt wie ein Huhn ohne Kopf umher, ...frueher oder spaeter Zinserhoehungen,Dow > 9000>8000>7000, Dire Straits,Jim Sinclair : Gold 2008 1200 $, John Embry : Letzte Chance Gold guenstig zu kaufen, Society General : Silber steht in der zweite Jahreshaelfte mit Schnitt 20-21 $, Sprott Asset Management 2000 $ Gold short time 30 $ Silber.....das laueft runter wie Oil.

http://www.hesradio.com/radioshows.html

Bob Hoye:

..der meint das Gold nun ansteigt und der Ratio zum Oilpreis nun umdreht, er sagt auch das er mehr in Goldaktien investiert als Silberaktien zur Zeit.
Was den USD angeht meint er das er schwaecher wird im Juni.

Oil, Gold Action *AUDIO*

http://www.howestreet.com/audio/bobhoye_2008_0516.mp3

Road to Roota V

By Bix Weir

MELT THE WITCH

…swap all your Gold for Silver!

Attention GATA Army:

What would you do to take down the Gold Cabal? What would you sacrifice? How hard would you work if you KNEW that the culmination of your effort would end the long term manipulation of gold? As for me, I am very tired of fighting the Cabal, but I am also tired of watching all that I love about my country get washed out to sea by the Manmade Monsoon of Market Manipulation that is currently sloshing over the United States of America.

LET’S FINISH THIS THING!

I’m going to say it flat out…SELL ALL YOUR GOLD INVESTMENTS NOW AND BUY PHYSICAL SILVER! This is not a joke and don’t get me wrong, I am the biggest “gold bug” you’ve ever meet, but it is time we ended their evil game. The Cabal has shown their Achilles Heal over the past few months and it is not gold but the depletion of Physical Silver available for delivery that will ultimately lead to their demise. Many of us figured out long ago that physical Silver will likely run out before physical gold simply due to the tiny size of the Silver market compared to Gold, but most of us have not ACTED on this knowledge to accelerate the demise of the Gold Cabal due to our affinity for Gold and all that Gold represents… sound/honest money, freedom, liberty and justice for all!

Recently, I have been thinking a lot about Gold as money and why I personally believe that Gold is the best form of hard money. Why not Silver or platinum or copper or zinc? I must admit that most of my knowledge on this subject comes from the writings of other people. I have read hundreds of books and articles by brilliant economists, sound money advocates and other monetary philosophers who have dedicated their lives to the study of monetary theory. I am truly amazed at the vast amount of intellectual capital that has gone into the analysis of Gold as money with each monetary thinker building upon the knowledge passed down by others through the ages.

BUT WHAT DO I THINK?

If I had no idea about monetary theory and history, what would my conclusions be? How have these writings influenced my affinity towards gold as opposed to other hard metals? Is it possible to NOT be influenced by information passed down over the years and clear my mind enough to use my own cognitive reasoning on this subject?

This is what I have been pondering since the “GATA Goes to Washington” conference and my conclusions have shaken me to my Gold Bug foundations! Although the facts and fundamentals of gold as the best form of hard money may have been true 50 years ago, the world of Gold and Silver has changed dramatically since then such that now SILVER is hands down the best hard money investment compared to all other metals….even GOLD!

HERESY AT THE CAFÉ!

I am hoping Bill Murphy will still publish this piece on LeMetropoleCafe.com even though I am asking people to SELL all their gold. Let me tell you it was a difficult conclusion to draw considering I have held onto my gold like a crazed miser for the past 8 years, but facts are facts and when you clear your mind long enough to examine them you too will “find religion” in SILVER. Don’t get me wrong, gold is a very good investment but when compared side-by-side to Silver you too will make the switch faster than a Hillary Clinton “Super Delegate” the night before she pulls out of the Presidential Race!

THE FACTS

The following is a list of facts and reasons to switch all your Gold investments into Physical Silver:

1) The Gold Banking Cabal is heavily involved in the suppression of the price of Silver and would be mortally wounded when Silver breaks the bonds of manipulation. Due to the tiny size of the market and the lack of physical Silver available to the manipulators, the Silver battle is much easier to win than Gold.

2) Central banks have NO physical Silver to assist in the manipulation of the Silver market but they still have a lot of physical Gold (although much less than they claim).

3) The majority of Silver mined every year is consumed as an industrial metal in very small amounts and will never return to the market whereas the amount of above ground Gold grows year after year.

4) Silver has developed, due to its low price and superior physical properties, into a vital and necessary industrial commodity that makes it mandatory for modern life. If we woke up tomorrow and gold vanished from the face of the earth, life would continue pretty much as it was the day before. Without silver, modern life would change.

5) Due to the relative very low price of silver and very high price of gold, the man in the street, around the world, is in a position to buy silver in much greater quantities than gold.

6) In various forms there is an estimated 5B oz of above ground Gold and 5B oz of above ground Silver but Gold trades at $880/oz and Silver trades for only $17/oz. Both metal prices are obviously manipulated but Silver appears to be manipulated more. As for Silver bullion that is “in play” for the manipulators, I estimate that less than 300M oz remain (COMEX Inventories + SLV Inventories) with a current market value less than $5B.

7) Silver has been in a supply deficit for over 50 years! Governments held approximately 10B oz of silver in 1950 and have been supplying that physical stock steadily into the market. Today there is no more of that surplus silver left to sell.

8 ) At current Silver consumption rates there are only 18 years of known Silver reserves remaining in the world. AFTER THAT SILVER WILL BE GONE FOREVER! Think about it.

9) Demand for Silver is price “inelastic” in its industrial applications because it is used in such small quantities per application. An increase in price does not translate into a decrease in consumption.

10) The COMEX Silver short position is the largest concentrated short position of any commodity, on any exchange in the history of financial markets.

11) Throughout human monetary history the Silver to Gold ratio hovered in the 10-1 range until the invention of futures and options trading in metals. Since that time the ratio has risen to where it now stands at over 50-1.

12) The US Dollar as defined in the Coinage Act of 1772 is Silver, not Gold, and contains “three hundred and seventy-one grains and four sixteenth parts of a grain of pure, or four hundred and sixteen grains of standard silver.”

13) Silver is massively under reported in the media vs. Gold. Even Jim Rogers, the commodity guru, purposefully ignores Silver entirely in his best selling book “Hot Commodities” even though Silver exceeds all other commodities using his metrics on what makes a strong commodity.

14) Very few investors have physical Silver in their possession. Reasoning: because they claim it is “too hard to store”. Does that mean when Silver trades at over $1,000 oz people will be more willing to buy and store physical Silver? It is difficult to make up a more bullish reason to take delivery and store physical Silver TODAY…when the Cabal price rigging scam finally fails you can always buy your own Fort Knox to store all that pesky Silver you bought!

15) Gold’s strong fundamentals are only exceeded by Silver’s so when the gold manipulation stops and the Gold price takes off investors will be looking for the next under-priced investment with similar characteristics.

16) 470M oz of Silver owned by the US Treasury and used in the Manhattan Project for the construction of the atom bomb have all been melted down and sold into the physical market to support the “Strong Dollar Policy” http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/silvermystery.html

17) Silver mineral deposits, as opposed to Gold, are usually very shallow in the earth’s crust due to the nature of the geology so most of the large deposits of Silver have probably already been found and/or already mined limiting future discoveries.

18 ) There is a significant problem with counterfeit Gold bullion because of its high price. Silver bullion has not, to date, had as much of a counterfeiting issue because its price did not justify the effort. (although there is a problem with counterfeit Silver jewelry which may significantly suppress Silver scrap recovery in the future…oddly bullish by-product of counterfeiting Silver!)

19) The total dollar value of the Silver market is a fraction of the total dollar value of the Gold market.

20) Most flat screen televisions use Silver in their internal electronics/screens and the US transfer from analog to digital signals in February 17, 2009 should temporarily increase the demand for new TV’s when the switch is made. http://www.dtv.gov/consumercorner.html#faq3

21) Retail physical shortages of Silver are already beginning to appear around the world.

22) Hedge funds are bleeding from the credit crunch and they are looking for ways to save themselves. A single hedge fund can scoop up the remaining physical Silver and blow the price sky high.

23) In the US, Gold confiscation laws are still on the books but there are currently no silver confiscation laws.

24) In March 2008 the Gold price breached $1,000 or 120% of its historical high. Silver, on the other hand, only approached $21 or 40% of it’s historical high suggesting that Silver has a long way still to go.

25) Un-backed paper Silver programs such as silver certificates and unallocated pooled accounts are the “industry standard” these days and will be scrambling for metal when redemptions are called in by the investors.

Hopefully, that’s enough pro-Silver data to convince you to make the switch.

WHAT ABOUT GOLD?

There are some pro-Gold items which, in fairness, should be weighed against all the pro-Silver arguments:

1) Gold does not tarnish. (That’s nice but hardly a reason not to make the switch)

2) Gold is promoted and perceived by the world as the “Greatest Monetary Metal”….at least for now!

Don’t worry about Gold….really. Gold, like Silver, will find its rightful place in a freely traded market. It should take less than $5B of physical Silver purchases to buy up all of the available Silver bullion, and that would only mean switching out of about 180 tons of Gold on a physical basis. 180 tons would not significantly damage the price of gold. Now $5B removed from GLD/SLV, Gold/Silver Pooled Accounts, Gold/Silver mining stocks, etc. would be much better for the price of Gold should also not cause any permanent damage to the gold investment community. As a matter of fact, can you think of anything more positive for the price of gold and gold investments than the destruction of the Cabal?!

SO WHAT IS THE TRUE PRICE OF SILVER TODAY?

I don’t know but I do know that the price quoted on the COMEX today is not even close to its Fair Market Value. It makes more sense to me to estimate the true price of Silver in relation to another “Monetary Commodity” such as Gold since gold is currently “perceived” as the best monetary metal.

- Based on my estimates of total above and below ground Silver (17Boz) and Gold (8Boz) the Silver/Gold Ratio should be 2.1-1. With Gold trading at $880/oz Silver should be trading at $419/oz or is 25X UNDERVALUED!
- Based on my estimates of total above ground Silver (5Boz) and Gold (5Boz) the Silver/Gold Ratio should be 1-1. With Gold trading at $880/oz Silver should be trading at $880/oz or is 52X UNDERVALUED!

- Based on my estimates of total monetary bullion above ground Silver (1Boz) and Gold (3Boz) the Silver/Gold Ratio should be 1-3. With Gold trading at $880/oz Silver should be trading at $2,640/oz or is 155X UNDERVALUED!

Of course all this is predicated on the assumption that gold is fairly valued at $880oz today which almost everyone agrees is a joke. Since the USA holds a little over 8,100 tons of gold in reserve it is logical to assume that Gold will back the US dollar when the fiat money system fails (not hard to imagine the failure of the US dollar). With the M3 money supply currently estimated to be in the $15 Trillion dollar range, the price of a redeemable gold backed US dollar would be about $60,000/oz IF the US stopped printing dollars today.

The $60,000/oz Monetary Gold price would put the value of monetary above ground Silver bullion, as analyzed in the last bullet point above, at….

…. $9,300,000 per oz!

Crazy, I know, but it really doesn’t end there!

- Based on the FACT that Silver is being consumed 120% faster than it is currently being mined/produced and the Gold above ground supplies are growing at 2% per annum the Silver/Gold Ratio Formula should be [(Above Ground Silver)(-20%) to (Above Ground Gold)(1.02%)]. With Gold trading at a massively manipulated low price of $880oz, Silver should be approaching INFINITY AND IS INFINITY(X) UNDERVALUED!

Wow….chilling conclusions…have you traded your Gold for Silver yet?

For those of you who have not removed the pre-conceived notion of Gold as
the BEST monetary metal I ask you to take a look at the 5-year price action of the
2ND BEST CONDUCTOR OF ELECTRICITY
…..BEHIND SILVER!