Ein ungenannter Analyst sieht den Grund für Harmonys Übernahmeangebot in den sehr ernsten Problemen, die HAR bei anhaltender Randstärke hat.
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"Probably the most pressing question facing South African gold mining companies is how to adjust to the current low rand/kg gold-price scenario," Harmony Gold said in its December quarter earnings statement. Its widely believed, it added, that the rand could continue to be strong for at least another 12 months, driven by the weak dollar.
It's for this reason, according to one analyst, that Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HMY) Chief Executive Bernard Swanepoel "had no choice" but to table his all-paper bid for South African peer Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI) on Oct. 18 last year.
"He's in serious, serious trouble at Harmony and he needed better-quality assets to see him through a period of a lowish rand/kg gold price," said the analyst, who didn't want to be named.
Cash-flow from Gold Fields' better-quality South African and international assets could help subsidize Harmony's marginal operations, the analyst added.
On a cash-operating cost basis - a metric used by South African gold companies to compare their costs, which strips out items including the cost of capital - Gold Fields is estimated to need a rand/kg gold price of ZAR72,000 to break even, while Harmony needs a rand/kg price of ZAR80,000.
But Harmony Executive Director Ferdi Dippenaar dismisses this view, saying the company made the bid for Gold Fields because its executives reckon they can create value for both companies' shareholders, "not because the company has any cash-flow problem." Gold Fields is bitterly contesting the bid.
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FOCUS: S Africa Gold Companies Pushed Into Survival Mode
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/050329/15/3rjq2.html