@ gogh ich glaube wir sollten den mal fragen und um hilfe bitten??
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.foof.most.org.pl/g_ksiazk/nirwan.jpg]
Der hat andere Tricks auf Lager um Mboweni zu beeinflussen....
[Blockierte Grafik: http://people.freenet.de/hlindner/SOU10RRHI.jpg]
Gruss Cmanson
Aus "BUSINESS DAY" vom 15.10.2004
Rates hold; Moody's to upgrade SA
By Hilary Joffe and Nasreen Seria
SA moved a step closer to an upgrade of its international credit rating yesterday after rating agency Moody's gave SA's improved foreign exchange reserves and better growth prospects the thumbs up.
This came as the Reserve Bank's monetary policy committee decided to leave short-term interest rates unchanged, but indicated the outlook for inflation was favourable for at least the next two years.
However, economists said the Bank's decision yesterday to keep the repo rate flat at 7,5%, which was widely expected, did not rule out further rate cuts if oil prices declined or the rand continued to strengthen.
Moody's said it had placed SA's Baa2 sovereign rating on review for a possible upgrade. This commits the agency to a decision within three months, with the probability that it will upgrade to Baa1, a rating that is two notches above investment grade. The other two leading international agencies, Standard & Poor's and Fitch, have SA at one notch above investment grade, but Moody's has traditionally led the pack .
A sovereign ratings notch-up would make it cheaper for SA to borrow on international markets and that should ultimately help to cut the cost of capital in the domestic market.
National treasury director- general Lesetja Kganyago said the spreads on SA's international bonds were likely to start pricing in the likelihood of a ratings upgrade by Moody's, whose analysts are due to visit SA within the next couple of months before making their decision.
The low level of SA's foreign exchange reserves had previously been a key factor holding back an upgrade. But Moody's vice-president Kristin Lindow said yesterday that SA's international liquidity position was now fully consistent with a rating at this level.
SA's external assets were now such that SA could avoid a lot of the volatility, in the exchange rate and in capital markets, that had plagued it in the past, she said.
Moody's was also more optimistic about SA's ability to sustain a stable healthy growth rate. "It seems as though things have really stabilised and improved and we are looking at a situation where SA will achieve quite good growth for several years to come."
Two issues that the agency would be checking out on its visit to SA were whether there was any chance of a reversal of the strong capital inflows SA had been seeing, and whether the big pick-up in domestic credit demand indicated any "overheating".
Bank governor Tito Mboweni said yesterday the inflation outlook was "promising" over the longer term. But he highlighted the unpredictable rand, soaring oil prices, high wage costs and strong domestic demand as factors causing the Bank to hold rates steady yesterday.
The rand strengthened to below R6,50 to the dollar following the Moody's announcement, almost 10c stronger than its previous close of R6,5975. The local unit fell back late yesterday to trade at about R6,5135.
Business Day
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Da wird es wohl in nächster Zeit nichts mit einer weiteren Randschwäche. Mboweni wird uns den Gefallen nicht tun.
Bleibt nichts anderes übrig, als weiter abzuwarten.
Kuddel.
Pressemitteilungen
Durban Roodepoort Deep Ltd - DRDGOLD Wins R35.7 Million Case Against JCI Gold/CAM
21.10.2004
Johannesburg High Court Judge Lewis Goldblatt today ordered Brett Kebble’s JCI Gold Limited (JCI Gold) and Consolidated African Mines Limited (CAM) to pay Durban Roodepoort Deep, Limited (DRDGOLD) an amount of R35.7 million, plus interest and costs, including the costs of two counsel. (297 KB)
Gruß
Schwabenpfeil
Neue Nachrichten von DRD.
Kuddel.
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Durban Deep CE moots mega mine
DURBAN - Roodepoort Deep CE Ian Murray has called for pooling of assets to create a mega goldmine in Carletonville.
He said yesterday that this would be the best way of extending the life of the mines in the area, and that his proposal would stand whether or not Harmony was successful in its hostile bid for Gold Fields.
Murray said there was scope for further consolidation in the South African gold-mining sector, and he wanted a slice of the action.
"With its bid for Gold Fields, Harmony is shaking the tree, and that is going to start the next wave of consolidation," he said.
He said there could be major synergies through combining four mines Gold Fields' Driefontein, AngloGold Ashanti's Savuka, Durban Deep's Blyvooruitzicht and Harmony's Elandsrand.
"All the mining assets in SA are tightly held, but we do think there is room for further consolidation, and for regional consolidation, such as at Carletonville," he said .
"There is one ore body there, and there is a need to pull all the mines into one company." He warned, however, that such a move would require all those involved to "drop their egos".
"This makes sense for the country and for the industry, and we need all the players to sit around and discuss it."
Murray said that Durban Deep "would be a willing buyer", and it was unlikely that any of the other players would wish to acquire all the Carletonville mines.
He said a combined mine would be more than the sum of its parts, and that the life of the reserves, which were approaching their end , could be extended through consolidation and "that would have to be in SA's best interests" .
He said that if the Harmony bid were successful, he would want to speak to Harmony, "and if not, we would want to speak to both Harmony and Gold Fields".
He said there could be similar consolidation opportunities for gold assets in the Klerksdorp area, and that there should be more deal-making in SA, citing the example of Australia.
"Whenever I go to Sydney, there are so many assets, with hundreds of listed gold companies. People are keen to do business, and there are lots of deals to be done."
He said the company could make a small margin on its South African operations at the current rand gold price after shedding a third of its workers. Durban Deep was known as the Roodepoort Rocket, he said, for its ability to react to changing conditions, and a "10% rise in the rand gold price has historically led to an increase of over 50% in our share price".
Business Day
3 Kurze Fragen:
Sind die neuen Aktien bereits im Umlauf ? Wenn nein, wann kommen sie in Umlauf?
Zu welchem Kurs wurden / werden sie angeboten.
Danke
# gogh
# gogh
Es ist sehrwahrscheinlich nur noch eine Frage der Zeit wann wir diesen Wert auch abschreiben müssen, für mich schon ein sehr schmerzlicher Verlust.
gruß hpoth 
#gogh,
Oder wir in Frankfurt sagen " Der Herr hats gegeben und der Herr hats genommen"
Gruß hpoth
Tom O’Brien: Tiger Financial News Network
By: Alec Hogg
Posted: '19-NOV-04 14:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004
MINEWEB: Let’s bring in Tom O’Brien now from Florida. He’s with Tiger Financial News Network. Tom, just by way of maybe giving us some background about yourself, you’re a portfolio manager, you’re a broadcaster, you have financial newsletters – how many people do you reach? How many retail investors would look to you for advice?
TOM O’BRIEN: Well, the potential audience is 13 million every day. As to how many listen it’s hard to tell, 200, 300,000 people – we’re in the whole East Coast of the United States, we’re in the West Coast, we’re in Colorado. And we’re drive time, so if it’s four to six Eastern Time, and of course, everyone’s trapped like rats in their cars in the United States.
MINEWEB: Not too much different nowadays in Johannesburg, I can assure you. On the Harmony Gold Fields issue have you been favouring either of the sides?
TOM O’BRIEN: Yes. Well, I do a gold report. I’ve done it for two and a half years. And in the United States what happens is – we’ve owned Harmony for a long time, we’ve owned GFI for a long time. You see, most of the folks that buy in the United States are buying the option, they’re buying South Africa. That’s what they’re really buying. And the holders that have held these equities for a couple of years, the feedback we’re getting on the air is that, listen, we bought GFI because we bought South Africa, and on a technical basis both of these stocks have acted the exact same way. They haven’t really moved because of the rand relationship, going right back to May of 2002. It’s been a choppy market, the relationship is the same. So what ends up happening of course is the investors in the United States have a choice. If they want an international gold maker, which most of them have, well that’s great, you can get a Goldcorp, you can get a GLG – there’s other stocks that they know they can buy or that they do already own. So that’s what we’re finding. What is interesting, though, is that because we came out of such a large bear market, a 22-year bear market, what has happened in the United States is this. Folks who have put money into these – you have the trade, that’s for sure and I trade a lot, we invest a lot – you have holders in the United States that have been holding these stocks for a long time. Some of these equities we have from $4, $3, and these people are holding them and they’ve been rewarded. Volatile, yes it’s been volatile beyond belief in the gold market, but you have a lot more holders in the United States, and every day you’re getting more of them, because of course the dollar’s got destroyed, the dollar’s dust, there’s no two ways about that. You see, it’s still an education process in the United States in relationship to the dollar, the South African stocks and the rand. But what folks have seen now is that the dollar is a lot lower, and in fact the rand is still much stronger, and that’s a huge plus for investors in the United States because the dollar is at a low and of course the rand made its low in July, I believe, at 580 points. So the folks in the United States said, OK, listen, on a flat currency basis versus gold, the inverted relationship, the rand is not getting stronger than the dollar.
MINEWEB: Mm, OK, well the rand is certainly terribly strong at the moment from our perspective on this side. But if you then put your neck on the line, Harmony would be the one that you favour, because they are keeping it more South African-related – is that the way you’re interpreting it?
TOM O’BRIEN: That’s the feedback we’re getting because, and that’s what I’m doing too. I’m buying an option on South Africa. The way I feel about it, if you’re a golden bull you have all the gold. South Africa has all the gold, and I’m looking at the gold price right now – another year and a half it’s going to be probably $558/oz. This is going to be a long-term bull, this baby is just starting. So in that context I own plenty of other gold stocks. If I wanted an international stock I already own them. I don’t need GFI to go outside and be an international stock. Maybe that’s what happens in South Africa, but that doesn’t happen in the United States because we continually buy a lot of other stocks for that same deal. I’m buying specifically South African, that’s what I’m doing because, if the gold price goes where we think it may go, what ends up happening is you have all the gold. Is it more expensive gold? Yes it is, but in the relationship of the rand, in the relationship of how much gold is in the ground, well, you know what? South Africa is the kingpin.
MINEWEB: What about a stock like Durban Deep? That is a very high-cost producer in South Africa. It’s also been moving progressively outside of this country. Papua New Guinea is where they seem to be putting a lot of their effort at the moment, and yet American retail investors in particular have been piling into this share to the disbelief of a local person like Nick Goodwin. Can you explain it?
TOM O’BRIEN: You know what is amazing? This is what’s happened – we called Durb Deep, we go from DROOY (the computer code) to dreamy to droopy. It’s unbelievable, because it really depends, OK, on the last three years what it’s done. People will pile into it, but they’re doing the exact same thing – it’s an option on South Africa. Right now we’re looking at DROOY – it’s like OK, are you going to make it off that bottom. I’m a technical trader, Alec, and we’re always looking for strictly the supply and demand, how much money is getting put to work in the United States versus how much selling. Now DROOY has to make it by US $2.34, and it’s $1.79, but there’s a lot of money getting put into DROOY, into GFI, into Harmony, into South Africa. There’s plenty of investors that walk in here to whom $50, $60, $80,000 is like nothing. They just put money into it because they know they don’t want to hold the dollars, they’re willing to do this. DROOY right now on a technical basis, though, still has problems where GFI and Harmony don’t have problems on a technical basis. Both of them to us are the exact same, technically they’re the same deal. On a fundamental basis, of course, if GFI goes south the folks in the United States, well, the folks that are my listeners, will say: “Well, listen, I’ll just buy something else.” They’re buying the option with the gold in the ground in South Africa, that’s what I get as feedback.
MINEWEB: Tom O’Brien from Tiger Financial News Network, giving us the American point of view. David?
DAVID SHAPIRO: You know why he calls it DROOY? Their code in America is DROOY.O, In other words, that’s the code they’ll put in a computer, DROOY.O
MINEWEB: Maybe your good friend Ilja Graulich from DRD should start listening to guys like this, because DRD is trying to move out of South Africa – and yet their American investing base, if Tom’s right, are buying the stock because they want an option in South Africa.
NICK GOODWIN: But, Alec, if I can just come in here. They must be very careful of the rand, because I think they misinterpreting the rand. He was saying …
MINEWEB: Do you think they understand? Do you think they want to understand, Nick?
NICK GOODWIN: He was saying that the rand is not as strong as what the dollar’s been weak. Well it has been, exactly the same. It’s been matching exactly the same. Now the thing is, if the rand stays at this level – and personally from the work I’ve done I think it’s probably going to stay here for a year – these mines will be devastated, and the gold price in dollars will have no effect on them whatsoever.
MINEWEB: But if they’re buying the gold in the ground?
NICK GOODWIN: Well, that gold might never even get mined. It’s better to leave it there than take it out at a loss. So the point is, if the rand price does not move up then our mines here, the optionality, will be destroyed – irrespective of what the dollar price does.
MINEWEB: Right, just to close off with Nick, you say that the gold price could get to $500 an ounce – but are you looking at that as a longer-term target?
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, I think down the road the trend certainly is up, but I think after $450 it’s going to be a struggle. It’s not going to move up quickly. It’s going to be a real saw-tooth type action, and that’s going to affect the shares substantially.
MINEWEB: Nick Goodwin, our gold guru, and before that you heard, from the United States, Tom O’Brien of Tiger Financial. Of his audience of 13 million, potentially many of them are retail gold investors and – how did he put it, David? – for them $60-80,000 is nothing.
Goodwin sees gold at $500/oz
By: Alec Hogg
Posted: '19-NOV-04 14:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004
MINEWEB: There’s a wonderful Nedbank ad a few years ago, where they showed a guy playing pool and he looked up at the fellow who was standing next to him and said “gold, take it from me, gold”. Allan Seccombe is one of our reporters here at Moneyweb and he’s been following gold which went to a 16-year high today Alan?
ALLAN SECCOMBE: Yes, it did. It broke through $446/oz. I spoke to some analysts in London and South Africa today, and they reckon gold could go up as high as $450, which could be quite a stiff resistance level. Just before I came into the studio it was at $441 an ounce. Analysts are reckoning the weakness of the dollar is playing quite a large role in this. The dollar is about 1.29 against the euro at the moment. Barclays Capital in London reckon it could go to about 1.32, which would take gold up to $450, if not more expensive than that. There’s also been quite a lot of buying in gold coming through ahead of the launch of a gold-backed exchange-traded fund in New York and some analysts reckon the price could come down once those ETFs have listed. The interesting thing is that the rand has also firmed, and this has also kept the rand price of gold at around R86,000 a kilogram.
MINEWEB: Thanks to Allan Seccombe, one of our reporters at Moneyweb. Well tonight’s top story is gold. Our gold guru Nick Goodwin is in the studio – and we’re going to be crossing to Florida in a little while as well, to Tom O’Brien of Tiger Financial News Network over there, one of the big names or drivers of retail investors in gold. But Nick, let’s kick off with you. A 16-year high. A couple of years ago we wouldn’t have thought it was possible. Maybe you would have, but we wouldn’t have.
NICK GOODWIN: Well that’s quite interesting. I think we’ve spoken about this in the past, I think about a year ago I thought it would go to the $440 area and then come off back to $400 and then later on go up. We’re probably going to see about $500 later on, maybe in a year’s time or so. It’s mainly dollar-driven as has been said here. People are talking the dollar down to 1.45 [to the euro] or so. There’s just a problem that, as the dollar moves through 1.30, the Europeans start jumping up and down, because obviously that has a major effect on the whole European economy and I think there could be central bank intervention there eventually, because it really hurts them – just like our rand has been so strong, they don’t really want the euro to be much stronger.
MINEWEB: Why should that have a direct impact on the gold price?
NICK GOODWIN: Well, no, not on the gold price. I think it will affect the euro/dollar rate, and that will affect the gold price because there’s very close correlation now between the gold price and the euro/dollar rate.
MINEWEB: So in other words, as the dollar falls people try and hedge themselves, they try and protect their assets by buying gold?
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, exactly. But unfortunately the buyers of gold now are mainly speculators, and speculators historically are not holders of gold. They’re buyers and sellers of gold. And it’s only your jewellers that really are the holders. Obviously, the stuff is converted into jewellery, and the jewellery market is very sensitive to price, especially in India who take a third of the world’s gold. So if a price rises too fast – it’s actually the rate of increase that’s important – they can withdraw from the market, and then the speculators have got no-one to offload the gold to.
MINEWEB: Have they done that?
NICK GOODWIN: Not yet, but I would expect that they’re starting to do it, because jewellers have got stocks of gold. So they can sit back for a few months before they have to buy again, and they’ve been quite a controlling force in the past. So the jewellers are really the price supporters, and the speculators are the price makers. And what’s concerning about the speculators is they’ve been buying gold net for the last three years, and they’re sitting with about 1,000 tons of gold, which is about half of the world’s annual production.
MINEWEB: But didn’t they sell it net for something like 20 years?
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, they did, true.
MINEWEB: Well couldn’t we be in a 20-year upswing?
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, er – look, in the past, anything could happen. But this is the trouble, gold’s not like oil that gets used up. It lasts forever, that’s the problem with it. In the last 10 years the longest period that they’ve held gold like this is about three years, before they started selling it again. And of course they’re very fickle. But the big thing in this country of course is not only the dollar gold price but the rand gold price, and the rand gold price is at a level at which the mines are really suffering badly. I mean, these results we’re seeing now are the worst I’ve ever seen in its history, and we are way, way far away from a turnaround in the mines. We need a gold price of about $480 for the mines just to break even.
MINEWEB: And what’s that in rand terms?
NICK GOODWIN: It would be about R3,300 per ounce, about R100,000 a kilo.
MINEWEB: And we’re around R80,000 or R85,000 a kilo. We’re under water.
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, the big thing is margins. You need an operating margin of about 30% in order to afford your capex, because your capex is about 20%. The operating margin now is 17%, so even though the gold operating margin is positive, we can’t afford our capex. So then we’ve got to go and borrow money to pay capex.
MINEWEB: So why do people buy a mine like Durban Deep? If the gold industry’s under water, that one has got to be at the bottom of the ocean.
NICK GOODWIN: It’s an interesting question. I think you must ask them.
MINEWEB: Well, we’re going to be talking to Tom in just a little while – and I’m sure he’ll have opinions on Durban Deep. It seems as though the Americans have been stocking up on that highly marginal stock. But what about the other big issue that’s going on in the gold market right now – Harmony’s takeover bid for Gold Fields Limited.
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, look, unfortunately I’m one of the few people in town who don’t favour this merger. There ARE two reasons. First of all, I wouldn’t want to lose Harmony as a stock, as a share. It’s a really nice share to have because it’s marginal. It reminds me of the old Lorraine years ago. I remember one stage when the gold price came down, the price of Lorraine went to 80c, and then the gold price turned around and within six weeks the price had moved up to R24. Now Harmony is that type of stock, and so I wouldn’t like to lose it, it’s a completely different animal from Gold Fields. Gold Fields is less marginal than Harmony, so that’s the first reason. Secondly I don’t think that it’s prudent for Gold Fields shareholders to swap their shares for Harmony. It’s not that Harmony can’t cut costs and things – they can do that, anybody can cut costs. But it’s just the whole management style of Harmony relative to the management of Gold Fields. Over the last five years Gold Fields has outperformed Harmony substantially. If I can mention a few factors which are important here – the big problem at Harmony has been the extent to which they have increased their issued shares. Their issued shares over the last five years have gone from 97m to 320m, so that’s a 232% increase. Gold Fields shares have gone up 8%. Harmony’s gold production has gone up 52% against a rise in share of 230%, and Gold Fields gold production up 8%, about the same as their shares. So Harmony’s production in ounces per share has virtually halved. For instance, in 2000 they produced 5,600 ounces per million shares, and now they’re producing 2,600.
MINEWEB: But aren’t they buying assets for the long term? They’ve got six new mines that they are busy with. You’ve got to issues shares maybe to have this kind of …
NICK GOODWIN: Well, they’ve just closed down about six or seven shafts. The whole ARM operation, for which they paid R2.5bn, is virtually completely closed down.
MINEWEB: So what you’re saying, Nick, is that you’re still with Gold Fields.
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, absolutely.
MINEWEB: Next Friday Nick, that’s the deadline day (Early settlement). Do you think that Gold Fields is going to be able to stave it off?
NICK GOODWIN: Well, it was interesting at the Gold Fields AGM there was a lot of support for the Gold Fields board. Only about 50% of the issued shares were voted there, but there was a lot of support. And interesting for the re-election of the chairman, Chris Thompson, that there was about a 70% vote for that. And obviously Norilsk must have voted there as well. Obviously the Gold Fields shareholders are very quiet. If they do their sums properly, I think the management of Gold Fields, the way they’ve managed the group, the way they’ve gone overseas and expanded substantially has been very successful, whereas Harmony’s overseas adventures have been a bit of a failure, in fact. They’ve got much more cash than Harmony, they’ve got R3.5bn. Harmony’s got R1bn and they’re burning R500m a quarter. So to me Harmony desperately needs Gold Fields’ cash. If they don’t get their cash, if they don’t get this group within two quarters, they are going to have to go and issue more shares and drain more cash.
MINEWEB: And if they don’t do the deal, is it life-threatening to Harmony?
NICK GOODWIN: It could be, yes. The group will change, it will still be around, but it could be a smaller group.
#gogh,
Nun ich habe Doory abgeschrieben,aber tot gesagte leben ja offt länger,vieleicht passiert das ja auch bei Doory, soll mir recht sein.
gruß hpoth
at van gogh
da han isch et doch jewuss dat du en alle Kölsche bis
Deine Einschätzung zu den SA -minen teile ich voll und janz.
Abschreiben sollte man sie noch nicht, nur umschreiben wird man sie müssen....
Renamed, revamped DRDGOLD 'no longer burning cash'
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By John Fraser
Shareholders of gold miner Durban Roodepoort Deep have approved a change of the company's name to DRDGOLD, which will come into effect this week.
Meanwhile, the company's CE, Ian Murray, has said the restructuring of the company's South African operations has succeeded, "and we are no longer burning cash".
At a sparsely attended shareholders' meeting on Friday, reflecting the fact that most of DRDGOLD's shares are held in North America, 96,6% voted in favour of the name change, which is designed to reflect the global nature of the company. The miner has diversified into Australasia, and is seeking further diversification.
All motions at the annual meeting were adopted, including awarding share options to directors, giving them the right to issue new shares, and a share buy-back scheme.
Murray said the recent restructuring, which has led to the loss of a third of DRDGOLD's South African workforce, had been a success. "It looks as if we are now making enough cash to cover our costs, including capital costs, in SA," he said.
"The restructuring is paying off. SA is no longer cash negative, and offshore our operations are earning dollars."
He said the dollar gold price continued to climb last week, but the effect of this was being offset in SA because of the strengthening rand. "So there was no uplift for South African gold production."
Murray was quizzed on reports that DRDGOLD was considering abandoning its primary listing on the JSE Securities Exchange SA.
He said no decisions had been made on this, but confirmed that with most shareholders offshore, the company was looking at the possibilities presented by a relaxation of exchange controls, which would allow it to keep a secondary listing in SA. "We would keep our local listing, and would remain on the main board of the JSE," he said.
"We will continue to be listed where our shareholders are."
Business Day
