• 16 Sep 2004 17:53
    16.09.2004 17:45:06 Commodities News Summary


    (For full story click on figures in brackets) TOP NEWS > Europe gold eases on dlr reaction to U.S. data [nL16429482]
    LONDON - Gold lost ground in Europe on Thursday, but losses were limited on the dollar's muted reaction to U.S. inflation data that suggested the Federal Reserve would stick to a measured pace of interest rate rises, dealers said.
    Spot gold fell to $403.05/403.80 per troy ounce by 1453 GMT, compared with $404.25/405.00 quoted late in New York on Wednesday.
    - - - -
    > Malaysia boosts border watch to rein in birdflu [nKLR131340]
    KUALA LUMPUR - Malaysia is sending more troops to its border with Thailand to check smuggling of chickens into northern Kelantan state, under quarantine for a bird flu virus that can kill humans, defence officials said on Thursday.
    Around 40 extra soldiers will join the 400 Malaysian troops already deployed to watch border entry points into Kelantan, where thousands of birds were culled since the H5N1 strain of bird flu surfaced there last month, the officials told Reuters.
    - - - -
    > Vietnam reports 2 bird flu outbreaks, culls [nHAN227143]
    HANOI - Vietnam has moved to stamp out two more bird flu outbreaks near the capital by culling about 600 sick chickens and ducks, an official said on Thursday.
    Bird flu has killed 29 people in Asia this year, 20 of them in Vietnam, and experts fear it is so widespread it will take years to control.
    - - - -
    > Jamaica reports heavy crops losses after Ivan -U.N [nL16559831]
    GENEVA - Jamaican farm ministry officials have reported heavy crop losses following Hurricane Ivan, including 60 percent of coffee and up to 15 percent breakage of sugarcane, the United Nations said on Thursday.
    - - - -
    GRAINS, OILSEEDS, LIVESTOCK
    > French analyst revises up EU-25 grain crop [nL1597737]
    PARIS - French analyst Strategie Grains on Thursday raised its forecast for EU-25 grain production this season to 281 million tonnes from 277.4 million last month, mainly due to larger-than-expected crops in Germany and Hungary.
    The EU's soft wheat crop was estimated at 123 million tonnes, up from 121.5 million last month and 98.3 million last year. Germany's harvest was revised up 800,000 tonnes, it said.
    - - - -
    > Russia sees grain harvest at 76 mln tonnes [nL1655339]
    MOSCOW, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Russia's 2004 grain crop will be at the top end of a previously forecast range of 73-76 million tonnes, Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev was quoted as saying on Thursday.
    - - - -
    > Kenya funds $40 mln maize deal with c.bank [nL16136908]
    NAIROBI - Kenya's government purchased $40 million of maize using central bank reserves on Thursday, despite traders' expectations that it would buy dollars in the market to fund the deal, government officials said.
    - - - -
    METALS > Squeeze play sends COMEX copper to one-month high [nN16402577]
    NEW YORK - COMEX copper rose to a one-month high at the open on Thursday driven up by a surge in London prices that was triggered by an advance in the Asian market where a temporary supply squeeze sparked the rally, traders said.
    - - - -
    > China seen turning to become net importer of zinc [nHKG327902]
    HONG KONG - China, once a major exporter of refined zinc, is becoming a net importer as domestic demand rises and industry sources say this could support the international price of the metal.
    - - - -
    > Jamaica alumina shipments affected for 2 months [nL16335910]
    LONDON - Jamaican shipments of alumina could be affected for at least two months as ports used by domestic alumina refineries, recently damaged by Hurricane Ivan, will be shut for repairs, officials in Jamaica said.
    - - - -
    > Minor metals-Indium hits $800/kg, absorbs dip [nL16134043]
    LONDON - Indium remained in demand this week, absorbing a bout of profit-taking, as the chronically-tight market hit the $800/kg level for the first time since 1939.
    - - - -
    > Kodak to close Australia plant, cut 600 jobs [nN16487729]
    NEW YORK - Eastman Kodak Co.(/EK.N), the world's largest maker of photographic film, will close a Coburg, Australia, plant that makes color photographic paper at the end of November, cutting about 600 jobs and causing a $105 million charge.
    - - - -
    SOFT COMMODITIES
    > Ivan benefits drought-stricken Cuban sugar crop [nN16500924]
    HAVANA - Hurricane Ivan caused almost no damage to Cuba's sugar industry as it roared by the western tip of the island Monday, and the storm provided much-needed moisture to the drought-stricken crop, media reports and sources said.

  • Zusammenfassung eines Artikels aus FocusMoney:


    Da in den nächsten 1 oder 2 Dekaden nach dem amerikanischen Rohstoffexperten Doug Casey die Energiepreise ein schockierend hohes Niveau erreichen werden, gehöre dem nuklearen Energieträger Uran die Zukunft.


    Seit dem Jahr 2000 hat sich der Kurs von Uran verdoppelt. Uranaktien wie Cameco und Paladin stiegen sogar um 250 %. Studien zeigen, dass eine Kilowattstunde Nuklearstrom deutlich günstiger zu haben ist als aus hochsubventionierten Energieträgern.


    Gründe für den weiteren Anstieg der Uranpreise:

    • Erstmals seit 25 Jahren ermuntert die USA die Energieunternehmen Reaktoren zu bauen. Derzeit erzeugen 104 amerikanische Meiler ca. 20 % des nationalen Stromangebots (Deutschland: 30%, Frankreich: 75 %). In den USA wuchs der Atimenergieverbrauch in den vergangenen 10 Jahren um 5 % (Europa: 26 %).
    • In China und Indien begeistern sich immer mehr Politiker für uran. Bis 2020 will China seine Kapazität um das Fünffache steigern, Indien bis 2012 um das Dreifache.
    • Sollten die Pläne in Indien/China realisiert werden, könnte das aufs Äußerste angespannte Angebot-Nachfrage-Verhältnis bei Uran in den kommenden Jahren endgültig kippen. Schon 2002 stand lt. OECD einer Urannachfrage von 67000 Tonnen nur eine Produktion von 36000 Tonnen gegenüber.
    • Zusätzlich bauen die Japaner fleißig neue Reaktoren und wollen so die Emissionsziele für Kohlendioxid einhalten.

    Uran-Minen:


    Ein Großteil des Uranabbaus fällt bei den großen Bergbauunternehmen wie WMC Resources als Beiprodukt an (2004: ca 4400 Tonnen). Konkurrent Rio Tinto besitzt zudem eine 2/3-Beteiligung an Energy Resources of Australia (größter Uranproduzent Australiens mit 4500 Tonnen). Einer der wenigen reinen Uranproduzenten ist Cameco aus Kanada (ca. 8700 Tonnen).


    Auf Grund langfristiger Lieferverträge schlägt der gestiegene Uranpreis aber nur nach und nach durch. Dennoch ist die Aktie die beste Variante, um vom Kursanstieg zu profitieren.


    Der französische Areva-Konzern spezialisiert sich dagegen auf die Aufbereitung des gebrauchten Rohstoffs sowie die Ausstattung von Atomkraftwerken. Wegen der hohen Bewertung dürfte das Kurspotenzial aber begrenzt sein.


    Aussichtsreicher, wenn auch sehr viel spekulativer, sind die Explorationskonzerne Paladin (Projekte in Australien, Namibia und Malawi) und Fronteer Development (Projekte im Norden Kanada, zudem Goldprojekte). Beide Gesellschaften sollten in den nächsten Monaten angenehm überraschen.



    Quelle: FocusMoney, 39/2004, S.38/39

  • 17 Sep 2004 14:10
    17.09.2004 13:55:02 TECHNICALS - COMEX/NYMEX metals technical indicators


    GOLD SILVER PLATINUM PALLADIUM COPPER
    DEC DEC OCT DEC DEC

    Close Sept. 16 $406.50 $6.318 $842.3 $211.25 $130.15
    High 407.80 6.355 850.0 212.25 130.90
    Low 404.20 6.260 838.2 209.00 126.80

    5-DAY M.A. 406.10 6.243 843.7 210.68 128.36
    20-DAY M.A. 407.10 6.539 852.5 214.41 126.54
    50-DAY M.A. 403.40 6.577 838.3 218.99 125.83

    9-DAY R.S.I. 54.86 44.30 41.78 52.86 70.82
    14-DAY R.S.I. 52.66 39.02 43.43 47.54 65.45
    Note: Data calculated from previous close. Previous high and low include ACCESS trading from previous session. Indicators are based on the time periods recommended by their developers or commonly used by technical analysts. Moving averages are simple moving averages. RSI formulas include a smoothing factor utilizing an exponential moving average (EMA), determined to be the industry standard. All calculations can be made using Reuter Graphics or Reuter Technical Analysis products.


    Contract High 436.50 8.480 915.00 345.00 132.50
    Contract Low 290.00 4.440 750.00 203.50 74.20
    First Notice Day Nov 30 Nov 30 Oct 01 Dec 01 Nov 30
    Expiry Date Dec 29 Dec 29 Oct 26 Dec 27 Dec 29

    BULLISH CONSENSUS ON September 14: 24 Month Range
    Low Hi
    Gold 74 from 70 on September 07 13 - 91
    Silver 47 from 47 on September 07 13 - 89
    Platinum 66 from 66 on September 07 14 - 95
    Copper 72 from 71 on September 07 08 - 88
    * Bullish Consensus, Copyrighted, Market Vane Corporation, P.O. Box 90490, Pasadena, CA 91109-0490. Phone +1 626 395 7436. The survey expresses a percentage of bullish sentiment among analysts and advisors. The company said 50 percent is considered support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market. Data are most recent available.


    For prices, double click on: -2


    For related news, double click on: [GOL] [MTL] [MET] [MIN] [GOL/X] [PLA/] [COP/X] [MINT] ["DLA"]


    For updated CFTC Commitment of Traders report, double click on for the latest week's data and for the previous week's data. Futures/options data is on and .
    ---
    © Reuters 2004

  • Hallo hpoth,


    so geht es mir auch, wenn ich diese weltfremden Ökofritzen im Fernsehen sehe. In Deutschland steigen wir aus der Kernenergie aus,
    während rund um die BRD Atommeiler hochgezogen werden. Nicht genug, dass wir schon von Rohstoffimporten abhängig sind, jetzt müssen wir uns auch noch den Strom aus dem Ausland kaufen. Oder in
    Kohlekraftwerke investieren. Es lebe die Umwelt!


    Gruss


    Warren

  • Renaissance der Atomenergie?


    CDU/CSU-Politiker, aber auch manche Publizisten, sagen eine Renaissance der Atomenergie voraus. Die Erneuerbaren allein schaffen es nicht, - um den Treibhauseffekt zu reduzieren, brauchen wir AKW, - wenn die Menschen in der Dritten Welt ausreichend Elektrizität wollen, brauchen wir mehr Atomkraft. Das sind die gängigen Argumente. Die Atomfrage wird wieder zur Kernfrage. Kommt es aber schon auf Grund einer neuen Diskussion über die Atomenergie auch zu einer Renaissance der Atomkraft?


    Die "alten" Argumente gelten immer noch. Es gibt keine Endlagerung des atomaren Mülls. Die Terrorgefahr ist eher gestiegen und inhärent sichere AKWs gibt es nicht. Die neue EPR- Reaktorlinie, die Frankreich zusammen mit Siemens entwickelt hat, soll zwar "sicherer" sein als die bisherigen Reaktoren, aber nach wie vor spricht die Versicherungswirtschaft von einem "unkalkulierbaren Risiko". Deshalb hat auch nur Finnland einen einzigen EPR- Reaktor bestellt. Alle anderen klassischen Atomländer, auch Frankreich und die USA, haben seit Jahrzehnten kein einziges AKW gebaut und planen aktuell auch keines. In den Kernländern der EU gibt es Überkapazitäten im Stromnetz.


    Auch in den USA gibt es Wirbel um "Endlager" - es gibt keine. Die atomfreundliche Regierung Bush wollte atomare Mülldeponien in Nevada mit einer Sicherheitsgarantie von 10.000 Jahren. Das Ansinnen wurde von einem Bundesgericht gestoppt mit der Begründung, ein atomares "Endlager" müsse für eine Million Jahre sicher sein. Ein solches "Endlager" kann es nach menschlichem Ermessen niemals geben.


    Wer jetzt noch auf Atomkraft setzt, handelt wie ein Flugkapitän, der mit seinem Flieger in die Luft geht, obwohl er weiß, er wird keinen Landeplatz finden. Regierungen, die trotzdem noch Atomenergie propagieren, müssen mit der Abstrafung durch die Wähler rechnen. Deutsche Politiker, die von neuen AKWs träumen, kann man nur empfehlen: "Viel Spaß bei der Suche nach einem Standort."


    Es kann ja sein, dass künftige Generationen weniger atomkritisch sind und Tschernobyl verdrängt wird. Es kann aber auch sein, dass ein "neues Tschernobyl" passiert und der Ausstieg weltweit forciert wird. Wirklich sichere Atomkraftwerke sind aus heutiger Sicht so unwahrscheinlich wie sichere Endlager für Atommüll. Atomares Restrisiko bleibt also jenes Risiko, das uns jeden Tag den Rest geben kann. Die Terrorgefahr ist leider eine Realität und weltweit verfügen wir über unendlich viel mehr umwelt- und klimafreundliche Energie als die gesamte Menschheit je brauchen wird.


    Allein die Sonne schickt uns in acht Minuten so viel Energie wie alle 6,4 Milliarden Menschen zur Zeit in einem ganzen Jahr konsumieren. Der fossil-atomare Energiemix kann in einigen Jahrzehnten zu 100 Prozent ersetzt werden. Wir brauchen gar keine gefährliche Atomenergie. Eine atomare Renaissance ist überflüssig.


    Quelle: http://www.sonnenseite.com (Franz Alt)


    ---
    Atomträume utopisch


    13.09.2004 + Auf der Weltenergiekonferenz in Sydney haben Chinas Energiemanager angekündigt, dass in den nächsten Jahrzehnten bis zu 1800 neue Atomkraftwerke gebaut würden. Das ist reine Fantasie und Utopie von durchgeknallten Technokratengehirnen.


    Der Weltenergierat in Paris geht davon aus, dass die Uranvorräte zum Betreiben der heutigen etwa 450 AKWs noch etwa 40 bis 50 Jahre ausreichen - eine Vervierfachung der AKWs ist schon deshalb unmöglich, weil dafür der Brennstoff fehlt. Die Natur hat menschlichem Größenwahn Grenzen gesetzt.


    Die Uranreserven und-Ressourcen sind weltweit auf eine begrenzte Anzahl von Ländern verteilt. Die größten Uranvorräte haben Australien (41 Prozent der gesamten Weltvorräte), Canada (17 Prozent), Kasachstan (15 Prozent) und Südafrika 8 Prozent).


    Weltweit stehen noch etwa 1,57 Millionen Tonnen Uran zur Verfügung. Das ist eine Berechnung der Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe. Allein im Jahr 2001 wurden über 64.400 Tonnen verbraucht, davon kamen 34.000 Tonnen aus Bergwerksproduktion und 30.400 Tonnen aus früher angelegten zivilen Lagerbeständen und aus strategischen militärischen Lagerbeständen, hauptsächlich aus der früheren Sowjetunion.


    Im Gegensatz zu den fossilen Energierohstoffen besteht bei Uran seit mehreren Jahren eine Lücke zwischen der Förderung und dem Verbrauch. Die Weltbergwerksförderung lag in den letzten 5 Jahren zwischen 32.200 und 37.300 Tonnen Uran, bei einem jährlichen Verbrauch um die 60.000 Tonnen Uran. Die Lücke wurde aus früher angelegten zivilen Lagerbeständen und zunehmend auch aus strategischen (militärischen) Lagerbeständen, besonders Russlands, gedeckt. Für den künftigen Verbrauch spielen aus der Abrüstung von Kernwaffen verfügbar werdendes Uran sowie aus der Wiederaufarbeitung von Brennelementen verfügbares Uran und Plutonium eine gewisse Rolle, die jedoch von politischen Entscheidungen abhängig sind.


    Quelle: http://www.sonnenseite.com (Franz Alt)


    ---
    Also, was ich daraus lese, ist dass Uran sich massiv verteuern dürfte, andererseits eine Investition in Atomenergie keinen Sinn macht.


    Und das Kasachstan demnächst Probleme mit den USA bekommen dürfte... aber das ist nur ein ketzerischer Gedanke und eigentlich habe ich das nie gesagt ;)

  • 17 Sep 2004 18:21



    17.09.2004 17:36:17 Commodities News Summary



    (For full story click on figures in brackets) TOP NEWS > Egypt buys 295,000 T Argentine, French, US wheat [nL17638522]


    CAIRO - Egypt's main official wheat buyer said on Friday he had bought 295,000 tonnes of Argentine, French and U.S. wheat for Oct. 15 to 31 shipment.


    - - - -



    > Australia fights biggest locust plague in decades [nSYD287458]


    NARRABRI Australia - Australia has started battling its biggest plague of locusts in decades as billions of the insects hatch along a wide front covering much of the country's central east region.


    - - - -



    > Malaysia, Thailand to meet Tuesday on bird flu [nKLR242641]


    KUALA LUMPUR - Officials from Malaysia and Thailand will meet next week to discuss how they can tighten border checks to prevent chicken smuggling, as both nations try to contain an outbreak of bird flu that is deadly to humans.


    - - - -



    > Europe gold flat, seen quiet ahead [nL17215654]


    LONDON - Gold was mostly unchanged in Europe on Friday, after U.S. consumer sentiment data came in little changed, and traders expected quiet trade next week owing to public holidays in Japan.


    Traders said they expected spot gold to stay in a $400-$408 range ahead of a meeting next Tuesday of the United States Federal Reserve to set interest rates.


    - - - -



    GRAINS, OILSEEDS, LIVESTOCK > Ukraine removes barriers to boost grain exports [nL17613973]


    KIEV - Ukraine, which could export 10 million tonnes of grain in the 2004/05 season, has lifted all barriers on sales abroad to help traders boost exports, Deputy Prime Minister for Agriculture Ivan Kyrylenko said on Friday.


    - - - -



    > Ukraine ups winter grain area, sees 2nd bumper cro [nL17574800]


    KIEV - Ukraine, breadbasket of the former Soviet Union, plans to boost the area sown to winter grain in 2005 and expects the country's second bumper grain crop in a row, a top official said on Friday.


    - - - -



    > AWB says has not signed wheat deal with I [nSP139912]


    SYDNEY - Australia's monopoly wheat exporter AWB Ltd (/AWB.AX) said on Friday it had not signed a deal to export 800,000 tonnes of wheat to Iraq.


    - - - -



    > Russia bans China, Brazil meat over foot-and-mouth [nL17650478]


    MOSCOW/SAO PAULO - Russia has partially banned live animals and meat product imports from China and Brazil citing concerns over foot-and-mouth disease, the Agriculture Ministry said on Friday.


    - - - -



    METALS
    > Union says to strike at Harmony Gold on Tuesday [nJAT001115]


    JOHANNESBURG - South Africa's National Union of Mineworkers said on Friday 8,000 workers would go on strike at some mines owned by Harmony Gold (/HARJ.J) next Tuesday.


    A statement by the NUM listed several grievances, including what the union termed unsafe blasting practices and inadequate Christmas holidays.


    - - - -



    > Harmony Gold says union strike would be illegal [nJAT001117]


    JOHANNESBURG - South Africa's Harmony Gold (/HARJ.J) said on Friday a planned strike by 8,000 members of the National Union of Mineworkers on Tuesday would be illegal because legal procedures were not followed.


    - - - -



    © Reuters 2004

  • 21 Sep 2004 19:40



    21.09.2004 18:13:44 Commodities News Summary



    (For full story click on figures in brackets) TOP NEWS > ANALYSIS-Investment funds whip up new peaks in met [nL21662578]


    LONDON - A renewed influx of investment fund money, spurred by strong fundamentals and relative weakness in other financial markets, is pushing key industrial metals to new peaks, analysts said on Tuesday.


    With supply tightening, three months aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) jumped in active trade on Tuesday to $1,802 a tonne, its highest since April 21, while copper hit a five-month peak of $2,900.


    - - - -



    METALS
    > AngloGold Ashanti says Obuasi mine "stabilising" [nL21535091]


    JOHANNESBURG - The situation at AngloGold Ashanti's giant Obuasi mine in Ghana, where production has been disappointing, is now "stabilising", President Sam Jonah said on Tuesday.


    The mine, the star operation of Ashanti Goldfields before it was taken over by AngloGold, posted production levels below expectations in the second quarter, mainly due to lower tonnages stemming from lack of equipment.


    - - - -



    > China nickel demand growth seen slowing [nL2170696]


    PARIS - Chinese nickel consumption is forecast to rise to 152,000 tonnes in 2005 from 144,500 tonnes this year as the growth rate slows after five years of rapid expansion, an industry conference heard on Tuesday.


    The rate of demand growth, at 7.4 percent between 2003 and 2004 and then five percent into 2005, compares with an average growth rate in the last 11 years of 12.5 percent, Xu Aidong of Beijing-based metals analysts Aintake said.


    - - - -



    > N.Hydro says raising Jamaica alumina after Ivan [nL21635151]


    OSLO - The Alpart alumina refinery in Jamaica, with annual capacity of 1.65 million tonnes, has increased production since the weekend after damage from hurricane Ivan, co-owner Norsk Hydro (/NHY.OL) said on Monday.


    Hurricane Ivan had halted production at the plant, which Norway's Hydro owns with Swiss-based commodities trader Glencore, a week ago after damaging the refinery's waste deposit area and port.


    - - - -



    > Codelco and union still distant in contract talks [nN2140814]


    SANTIAGO, Chile - Leaders of a supervisors union at Chilean copper miner Codelco's northern division were still unsatisfied with the company's contract offer on Tuesday as a deadline for negotiations loomed.


    The 750-member union -- one of several at Codelco Norte -- could potentially strike in early October if talks fail but Codelco officials have said that only a prolonged walkout would disrupt production because other employees can temporarily carry out some of the tasks normally done by the supervisors.


    - - - -



    GRAINS, OILSEEDS, LIVESTOCK
    > Showers to slow harvest in western U.S. Midwest [nN2124083]


    CHICAGO - Showers early this week will slow harvesting of the corn and soy crops in parts of the western U.S. Midwest, a private forecaster said Tuesday.


    But "most of the rain will be in areas where they aren't harvesting much anyway. The east and the south is where most of the harvesting is and they look pretty much open," said Meteorlogix forecaster Joel Burgio.


    - - - -



    > Another cow tests positive for BSE in Japan [nT6418]


    TOKYO - A holstein cow in western Japan tested positive for mad cow disease on Tuesday, a local official said.


    The finding, if confirmed, would mark the 13th case of the brain-wasting illness in the country.


    A 103-month-old holstein cow tested positive in Nara prefecture in western Japan, an official at the Nara prefectural government's food safety promotion section said, adding that further government testing was needed to confirm the results.


    - - - -



    > Egypt minister backs raising domestic wheat price [nL21450067]


    CAIRO - Egypt's agriculture minister approved plans on Tuesday to raise the price paid for domestically produced wheat by 14 percent to boost local output, the official Middle East News Agency (MENA) reported.


    It said Agriculture and Land Reclamation Minister Ahmed el-Laithi adopted the recommendations drawn up by a wheat committee that aimed to expand the area for wheat cultivation in Egypt, one of the world's biggest wheat importers.


    - - - -



    > ABB merger to form Australia's No.2 grain group [nSYD263479]


    SYDNEY - The three-way merger of ABB Grain Ltd (/ABB.AX), AusBulk Ltd. and United Grower Holdings Ltd. that will assemble Australia's second-largest listed grains business will take effect on Sept. 27, the companies said on Tuesday.


    Proposed earlier this year, the merger, on a scrip-for-scrip swap basis, will create a group with a market capitalisation of about A$850 million ($586 million) comprising Australia's largest barley exporter and a storage and handling network of 113 silos and seven export terminals.


    - - - -



    > Brazil gov suspends sale of 70,000 bags GMO cotton [nN2136950]


    SAO PAULO, Brazil - Brazilian officials halted the sale of 70,000 bags of genetically modified cotton seeds, the Agriculture Ministry said in a statement released late Monday.


    Commercial planting and sale of genetically modified cotton is forbidden in Brazil, and the authorities have been clamping down on the practice after finding genetically modified cotton in fields in southern Mato Grosso state.


    - - - -



    SOFT COMMODITIES > Brazil 05/06 coffee crop seen sharply lower-trader [nN21504452]


    RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil - Brazil's next coffee crop could fall sharply to around 34 million 60-kg bags from 41 million bags in 2004, due to a cocktail of factors, exporter Stockler said on Tuesday.


    Production by the world's biggest producer is expected to drop more than expected due to a downturn in coffee's biennial production cycle, abnormal weather and lack of crop care.


    - - - -



    > Ivory Coast cocoa farmers welcome rains [nL21258161]


    ABIDJAN - Cocoa farmers in Ivory Coast said on Tuesday heavy rains in parts of the country in the middle of September should bolster the coming 2004/05 main crop.


    "It has rained a lot in the last week. The ground is soaked and I think it will strengthen the plants," said Mamadou Diallo, a farmer in the southern town of Divo.


    - - - -



    > EU misspent 3.1 bln euros of farm aid 1971-2002 [nL20279219]


    BRUSSELS - European Union auditors uncovered fraudulent or misspent farm aid worth 3.1 billion euros ($3.79 billion) between 1971 and 2002, the EU's financial watchdog said on Tuesday.


    Export refunds plus subsidies to fruit and vegetable farmers accounted for over half the missing aid, the European Court of Auditors said.


    - - - -



    © Reuters 2004

  • 23 Sep 2004 12:21



    23.09.2004 12:14:33 Ölwirtschaft - Anschlag auf Inlandspipeline im Irak



    Basra, 23. Sep (Reuters) - Saboteure haben am Donnerstag nach Angaben aus der irakischen Ölwirtschaft bei Nadschaf einen Anschlag auf eine Inlandspipeline verübt.


    Der Öltransport über die strategisch wichtige Ölleitung sei eingestellt worden, hieß es. Sie verbindet die Ölfelder im Norden des Irak mit denen im Süden. Die Pipeline versorgt vor allem die Ölraffinerien im Irak und wurde in diesem Jahr bereits mehrmals Ziel von Sabotageakten. Aufständische haben wiederholt Anschläge auf die Öl-Infrastruktur des Landes verübt.


    Die Ölexporte im Süden des Irak liefen nach wie vor mit fast voller Kapazität bei 1,9 Millionen Barrel pro Tag (1 Barrel = rund 159 Liter), sagte ein Makler. In Basra, dem wichtigsten Ölhafen des Irak, würden drei Öltanker beladen. Fünf weitere Tanker warteten auf ihre Abfertigung.


    Über die Ölexport-Pipeline im Norden des Irak wurde in dieser Woche mit rund 225.000 Barrel pro Tag wieder aufgenommen.


    seh/bob


    © Reuters 2004

  • 23 Sep 2004 13:36



    23.09.2004 12:55:35 Europe gold firms, targets resistance at $410



    LONDON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Gold edged up in Europe on Thursday morning, locked onto a firmer euro and indirect support from strong oil prices, with dealers looking for a possible test of resistance at $410 later in the day.


    Spot gold rose to $407.75/408.50 per troy ounce by 1040 GMT from $406.75/407.50 quoted late on Wednesday in New York. The euro was last at $1.2321.


    The euro held firm against the dollar, just off one-month highs scaled on Tuesday after a widely anticipated 25 basis point rise in the Federal funds rate to 1.75 percent.


    But comments that both inflation and inflation expectations had eased, led many to believe borrowing costs in the United States will rise more slowly in the coming months -- making an investment in gold more attractive.


    Stronger oil prices were also leading some analysts to cast doubt on a further rise in U.S. interest rates in November.


    "We are quite well underpinned by dollar weakness and the oil price rally," one gold dealer said.


    "The market has underperformed a bit recently, but we still remain within striking distance of this breakout area of $410-$411. I think we might see another assault on that today," he added.


    Additional impetus could arrive early next month during International Monetary Fund meetings which some analysts say may give further clarification on the European Central Bank gold sales agreement.


    The pact has limited official sales from its 15 signatories to 2,500 tonnes over five years and comes into being officially next week.


    Some 1,700 tonnes of planned sales have come to light so far, but much confusion surrounds how and when some major sellers will act.


    Platinum was marginally higher at $842.00/847.00 from $841.50/846.50 in New York.


    Analyst CPM Group said on Wednesday the platinum market has a growing surplus of material this year as South African supply grew faster than demand from car and jewellery makers, but robust speculative interest in the metal kept prices near their highest level in decades.


    CPM Managing Director Jeffrey Christian said the price could fall to $770/780 an ounce by year-end.


    Palladium was at $208.00/213.00, compared with $204.50/210.50.


    Silver moved up to $6.39/6.41 from $6.33/6.36 in the U.S. market.

  • 23 Sep 2004 18:09
    23.09.2004 18:01:34 Commodities News Summary


    (For full story click on figures in brackets) TOP NEWS > Ivan heads to Texas as tropical storm [nN23251767]
    MIAMI - The remnants of deadly Hurricane Ivan, which rampaged through the Caribbean and then into the U.S. Gulf Coast a week ago, killing more than 100 people, have reformed in the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm threatening the Texas or Louisiana coast.
    - - - -
    > Ops normal on Houston Ship Channel as Ivan approac [nN23106420]
    HOUSTON - Operations along the Houston Ship Channel, the busiest U.S. petrochemical port, were normal early Thursday morning as Tropical Storm Ivan threatened the upper Texas Coast, according to the U.S. Coast Guard Houston Vessel Traffic Center.
    - - - -
    > CBOT Dec corn at new low for 10th straight session [nN23688383]
    CHICAGO - Chicago Board of Trade corn futures sagged on Thursday, with December making a new contract low for the 10th straight session, on U.S. harvest pressure and reports of excellent yields, brokers said.
    - - - -
    > UPDATE 1-Europe gold spikes to one-month high [nL23628563]
    LONDON - Gold spiked up to its highest in a month on Thursday in Europe, lifted by a firmer euro and worries on inflation as oil prices pumped higher, dealers said.
    - - - -
    METALS
    > Bearish analysts see gold price back at $370/oz [nL23485245]
    LONDON - Gold is more likely to turn tail and break back down to $370 an ounce than revisit 15-year highs before the year-end, technical analysts said on Thursday.
    - - - -
    > ANALYSIS-Codelco seen poised to set record premium [nL13166290]
    LONDON - Chile's Codelco is likely to double annual copper cathode premiums for Europe next year, traders and analysts said on Thursday.
    - - - -
    > World copper deficit to nearly double in 2004 -ISC [nL2333275]
    LONDON - The world refined copper market deficit was forecast to grow by nearly 90 percent to 701,000 tonnes in 2004 as growth in refined use outpaces production, the International Copper Study Group said on Thursday.
    - - - -
    > INTERVIEW-Hydro Aluminium sees strong rise in 2004 [n]
    ESSEN - World aluminium demand will be up six to seven percent this year, with expansion in North America and Asia especially strong, said Jon-Harald Nilsen, president of Hydro Aluminium, part of Norwegian group Norsk Hydro (/NHY.OL).
    - - - -
    > Venezuela aluminum workers seek bonus accord-union [nN23626113]
    CARACAS, Venezuela - Workers who had threatened to strike at Venezuela's largest aluminum smelter, Venalum, were close to an agreement to end their dispute over a bonus payment, union officials said Thursday.
    - - - -
    GRAINS, OILSEEDS, LIVESTOCK > Informa Economics sees US corn crop 11.4-11.5 bln [nN23263572]
    CHICAGO - Informa Economics, formerly Sparks Cos., has told its clients that 2004 U.S. corn production could stretch to a record large 11.4 billion to 11.5 billion bushels, well above the USDA's latest forecast of 10.961 billion bushels, trade sources said.
    - - - -
    > Brazil could approve GMO soy planting decree-Lula [nN23247345]
    SAO PAULO, Brazil - A new provisional decree to allow the planting and sale of genetically modified soybeans for Brazil's 2004/05 (Oct/Sept) harvest may be issued, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Thursday.
    - - - -
    > Brazil corn exports slow on weak prices, firm real [nN23258560]
    SAO PAULO, Brazil - Brazil's corn exports have lost their steam with the fall of international prices ahead of a bumper U.S. harvest and the recent appreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar, analysts said.
    - - - -
    > Russia may export 8-10 mln T grain in 04/05 [nL23279898]
    MOSCOW - Russia has increased its grain export forecast for the 2004/05 agricultural year to eight million to 10 million tonnes from a previous five million, Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev was quoted as saying on Thursday.
    - - - -
    > Price fall is too late to save Ukraine wheat sales [nL23452865]
    KIEV - A sharp fall in Ukraine's export feed wheat prices has come too late to boost sales after Ukrainian wheat lost its edge to producers such as Russia and Canada, analysts said on Thursday.
    - - - -
    > UPDATE 1-Turkey to tender Sept 30 to export 150,00 [nL23639585]
    ANKARA - Turkey's state grain board (TMO) said on Thursday it would tender on September 30 to export up to 150,000 tonnes of durum wheat.
    - - - -
    > World's biggest flour mill set for Jakarta IPO [nJAK148012]
    JAKARTA - The $1 billion Indonesian owner of the world's biggest flour mill is set for a successful IPO to raise funds to ease the debts of its parent, Indofood.
    - - - -
    SOFT COMMODITIES > L.America squares up for banana trade fight with E [nL23442473]
    BRUSSELS - Ecuador, the world's leading banana exporter, will start informal talks with top EU officials next week on future import duties for the fruit and argue strongly against raising tariffs, diplomats said on Thursday.
    - - - -
    © Reuters 2004

  • Spielt Bush doch die Ölkarte Und gibt Reserven frei (das erste mal seit dem 1.Irak-Krieg)? Es sieht danach aus.......


    23 Sep 2004 20:56



    23.09.2004 20:47:53 UPDATE 4-U.S. gov't set to make oil loans from reserve



    (Adds details on refineries, paragraphs 19-20)


    By Tom Doggett


    WASHINGTON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - With oil prices close to $50 a barrel, the Bush administration is set to allow oil refineries to borrow crude from the government's emergency petroleum stockpile to make up for supplies disrupted by Hurricane Ivan, a congressional source briefed on the pending decision told Reuters on Thursday.


    The oil would be loaned to two refineries for two to three weeks, said the source, who did not know the names of the energy companies requesting the oil.


    A separate government source told Reuters that one of the loans would be for 100,000 barrels to 200,000 barrels, and the other for 1 million to 2 million barrels.


    White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the Energy Department was reviewing the oil loan requests from Gulf Coast refiners "to make sure that our system continues to operate until production and imports can resume."


    "We've always said that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was set up to protect against physical disruptions of oil supplies, such as national emergencies or natural disasters, and not to manipulate prices of oil for political purposes, and certainly Hurricane Ivan had an effect on the temporary supply of oil imports and production," McClellan said.


    However, an aide to Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry accused the Bush administration of playing politics with the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than six weeks before the U.S. presidential election.


    Kerry has for months called for the administration to temporarily suspend shipments to the stockpile to help lower crude oil and gasoline prices.


    "America needs a president that listens to the needs of families struggling to pay their energy costs at all times -- not just when a few oil refineries weigh in and not just a few weeks before the election," Kerry campaign spokesman Phil Singer said on Thursday.


    The Bush administration has failed to offer "real world solutions to the energy prices that have been strangling the economy," Singer added.


    U.S. commercial crude stocks fell 9.1 million barrels to 269.5 million barrels last week, their lowest since Feb. 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.


    Hurricane Ivan thrashed through the Gulf of Mexico last week, disrupting offshore oil production and coastal refinery operations. As of Thursday, the effects of Ivan had shut in 9.6 million barrels of oil output from the gulf, according to the latest government figures.


    U.S. oil prices jumped as high as $49 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange as traders said the oil loans would not be enough to replenish inventories.


    President George W. Bush has insisted that the reserve must be filled to its 700 million barrel capacity to counter any disruption in oil supplies that might be caused by terror groups or natural disasters.


    In October 2002 there was a short-term loan of oil from the reserve due to supply disruptions from Hurricane Lili.


    The congressional source said the oil for the new loans would come from the reserve's four storage sites in Texas and Louisiana, or by diverting oil deliveries to the stockpile and sending them to the refineries.


    Energy companies that are scheduled to deliver crude to the reserve have also made a request to delay those shipments, the government source said.


    It is possible that oil could instead be sent to the refineries asking for the reserve's crude.


    Exxon Mobil Corp. (/XOM.N), Royal Dutch/Shell Group's (/RD.AS) Shell Oil, Atlantic Trading and Marketing Inc., Glencore Ltd. and Koch Supply and Trading LP were awarded six-month contracts last February to deliver an average 100,000 barrels of oil per day to the reserve through the end of this month.


    At least 11 refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast shut or reduced operations due to the effects of Hurricane Ivan.


    Market sources said the most likely refineries to have asked for SPR crude were Motiva's (/SHEL.L) (/RD.AS) Norco refinery and ExxonMobil's joint-venture Chalmette plant, both in Louisiana. Officials at the companies did not immediately comment.


    The reserve was created by Congress in the mid-1970s after the Arab oil embargo and stores its million of barrels of crude in underground salt caverns.


    (Additional reporting by Steve Holland and Caren Bohan)


    © Reuters 2004

  • Mit Ivan hätten sie jetzt natürlich eine gute Ausrede für eine solche Handlung so kurz vor den Wahlen... :rolleyes:
    ...denkt jemand was Schlechtes dabei...? ;) :O :rolleyes:


    Na ja, dem einen hilft ein Hurrikan, dem anderen eine Flutkatastrophe...

  • 24.09.2004 17:53:57 Commodities News Summary



    (For full story click on figures in brackets) TOP NEWS


    > CBOT wheat turns down as corn and soybeans slide [nN24333159]


    CHICAGO - Soft red winter wheat futures at the Chicago Board of Trade turned lower early on Friday on pressure from sliding corn and soy futures, traders said.


    - - - -



    > NYMEX to fight CBOT gold futures competition [nN24310868]


    NEW YORK - The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) plans an "aggressive" response to competition for its benchmark gold and silver futures contracts from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the exchange's new president said Wednesday.


    - - - -



    > Alumina prices seen firming on latest port closure [nL24502584]


    LONDON - Alumina prices could rise $20 or $30 to around $450 a tonne after a fire closed Jamaica's last working alumina port, traders said on Friday.


    - - - -



    GRAINS, OILSEEDS, LIVESTOCK
    > Ideal harvest weather forecast for US corn, soy [nN24332855]


    CHICAGO - Ideal harvest weather was expected across the U.S. Midwest corn and soybean growing region during the next five days, a private forecaster said on Friday.


    - - - -



    > UPDATE 1-Egypt's GASC buys 540,000 T wheat for Oct [nL24461048]


    CAIRO - Egypt's main official wheat buyer said on Friday he had bought 540,000 tonnes of French, U.S., Australian and Argentine wheat for shipment from Oct. 21-31 and Nov. 1-10.


    - - - -



    > ANALYSIS-Politics and chaos cloud Iraqi grain buyi [nL21584815]


    PARIS - Iraq's grain imports remain paralysed by power politics and spiralling chaos, despite promises earlier this year by the Iraqi government of open and transparent imports, analysts said on Friday.


    - - - -



    > Vancouver grain inspectors stage second walkout [nN24330973]


    VANCOUVER, British Columbia - Grain inspectors at the Port of Vancouver staged their second wildcat strike in less than a week on Friday, but the union said that it would again last for only one day.


    - - - -



    > UPDATE 1-Coceral sees bumper grain harvest in 2004 [nL24530695]


    BRUSSELS - EU cereals production should reach 282.05 million tonnes in 2004, a bumper crop and recovery from last year's drought-ravaged harvest of 226.87 million tonnes, EU grains lobby Coceral said on Friday.


    - - - -



    METALS > UPDATE 1-Glencore shuts Jamaica port, halts alumin [nL24584712]


    LONDON - Glencore has shut its Esquivel port in Jamaica after a fire damaged loading equipment on Wednesday, possibly delaying alumina shipments for weeks, a port source said on Friday.


    - - - -



    > Swiss to sell remaining gold by end-March 2005 [nZAT003791]


    ZURICH - The Swiss National Bank will sell its remaining 130 tonnes of gold reserves by the end of March 2005, the central bank said on Friday as it continues a sell-off of unneeded reserves which it began in spring 2000.


    - - - -



    > Minmetals in exclusive talks to buy all of Noranda [nWEN5892]


    VANCOUVER, British Columbia - Noranda Inc. (/NRD.TO) and state-owned China Minmetals Corp. have entered into exclusive talks on a deal that could see Minmetals buy 100 percent of the major Canadian copper and zinc miner.


    - - - -



    > Russia Alrosa may bid for S.Log with Western miner [nL24245254]


    MOSCOW - A unit of Russian diamonds giant Alrosa wants to bid for rights to develop Eurasia's biggest gold deposit, Sukhoi Log, possibly by teaming up with a foreign miner, Vedomosti newspaper reported on Friday.


    - - - -



    > Japan to sell 32,683 old golden coins [nT156045]


    TOKYO - Japan's Finance Ministry will sell 32,683 Japanese golden coins that it has held for more than 50 years, a senior ministry official said on Friday.


    - - - -



    > UPDATE 1-Rio Tinto, Glencore compete for QAL alumi [nL24358204]


    LONDON - Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto (/RIO.L) (/RIO.AX) and Swiss-based trader Glencore International are competing for a 20 percent stake in the QAL alumina refinery in Australia, company officials said on Friday.


    - - - -



    SOFT COMMODITIES
    > Brazil coffee farms seen dry to end of September [nN24324234]


    RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil - Brazil's coffee farms are likely to stay dry until the end of the month when some light rain is forecast, notably in the Cerrado region of Minas Gerais state, private meteorologists Somar said on Friday.


    - - - -



    > INTERVIEW-Kenya smallholder tea crop seen rising [nL24366739]


    ARUSHA, Tanzania - Tea production by Kenya's smallholder farmers is expected to increase by 15 million kilos in 2004, the Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA) said on Friday.


    - - - -



    > UPDATE 1-Russian sugar output seen steady in 2004 [nL24433421]


    MOSCOW - Final Russian sugar beet test results indicate beet sugar output this year is likely to be near last year's 1.93 million tonnes, analysts said on Friday.


    - - - -



    > ICO coffee group considers move to Madrid [nL24524247]


    LONDON - The London-based International Coffee Organization (ICO) is considering relocating to Madrid to cut costs, its chief executive said on Friday.


    - - - -



    © Reuters 2004

  • Rohstoffe versprechen auch 2005 Gewinne
    Die Nachfrage steigt, das Angebot ist knapp. Öl und Edelmetalle bleiben die Favoriten der Investoren
    von Wolfram Roddewig ist Vize-Präsident im Aktienteam Europa bei Merrill Lynch Investment Managers


    Rohstoffinvestments bescheren Anlegern seit Jahren gute Gewinne. Kletterte zunächst Gold von einem Hoch zum anderen, so sorgte in diesem Jahr vor allem der Ölpreis für eine gute Performance bei den Rohstoff-Fonds. Einiges spricht dafür, dass dieser Trend auch 2005 anhält.



    Mittlerweile hat sich der Preis für ein Barrel Rohöl auf einem Niveau eingependelt, das bis vor wenigen Monaten noch als illusorisch galt. Verantwortlich dafür sind in erster Linie der stark steigende Ölverbrauch durch die gute Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Asien, die Unsicherheiten durch drohende Terroranschläge und nicht zuletzt der Skandal um die umstrittenen Steuerschulden des russischen Yukos-Konzerns.



    Nach Meinung fast aller Marktbeobachter ist der derzeitige Ölpreis jedoch aus fundamentalen Gründen nicht zu rechtfertigen. Ein Risikozuschlag von etwa zehn Dollar wird generell eingepreist. Sollten Anleger in naher Zukunft deshalb mit einem fallenden Ölpreis rechnen?



    Experten verneinen diese Fragen aus mehreren Gründen. Zum einen sind die bereits genannten Faktoren, die für den imposanten Anstieg gesorgt haben, aktueller denn je. Zum anderen befinden sich die Kapazitätsreserven in der Ölproduktion momentan auf einem Allzeittief.



    Dazu kommt der höchste globale Nachfrageanstieg seit 1980 mit 3,2 Prozent. Zwar arbeiten die Ölgesellschaften unermüdlich an der Entdeckung neuer Ölfelder, denn auf je drei Fässer produziertes kommt derzeit nur ein Fass neu entdeckten Öls. Inzwischen hat die Produktion aus zahlreichen ergiebigen Ölquellen den Zenit überschritten und wird sich in Kürze verlangsamen.



    Die Research-Abteilungen der Investmentbanken rechnen trotzdem mit einem stark fallenden Ölpreis. Damit die Analysten mit ihren Prognosen zum Durchschnittspreis für 2004 Recht behalten, müsste der Ölpreis allerdings vom derzeitigen Niveau von 44 US-Dollar pro Fass nun sofort auf 31,85 US-Dollar fallen und in den nächsten Monaten auf diesem Niveau verharren.



    Auch für 2005 rechnen die meisten Analysten mit einem Ölpreisrückgang um 37 Prozent gegenüber dem aktuellen US-Spotpreis. Dementsprechend niedrig fallen ihre Gewinnerwartungen für die Öl- und Gasgesellschaften aus. Diese Einschätzung teilen viele Experten jedoch nicht. Sie rechnen deshalb mit Gewinnkorrekturen nach oben und damit auch mit wieder steigenden Aktienkursen.



    Doch nicht nur der Rohstoff Öl bleibt interessant für Investoren. Das Gleiche gilt auch für Edelmetalle, allen voran für Gold. Dafür spricht vor allem die weiterhin freundliche Situation in Asien, speziell in China.



    Da das Land die stetig steigende Nachfrage nicht mit eigenen Vorkommen decken kann, muss ein immer größerer Teil der benötigten Rohstoffe zu Weltmarktpreisen importiert werden, was die Preise weiter treiben dürfte. Schließlich sorgt allein die chinesische Nachfrage in einigen Bereichen bereits jetzt dafür, dass die weltweite Industrie mit der Produktion kaum noch nachkommt.



    Die Goldproduzenten leiden noch immer unter den Nachwehen der neunziger Jahre, als sinkende Produktionskosten und ein dadurch bedingter Verfall der Rohstoffpreise zu einer Einschränkung bei der Suche nach neuen Abbaugebieten und damit zu einer Angebotsverknappung führten. Dieses knappe Angebot lässt sich nicht kurzfristig ausweiten, da Fördermengen nicht beliebig nach oben geschraubt werden können. Schließlich dauert es in den meisten Fällen Jahre, um geeignete Vorkommen überhaupt erst ausfindig zu machen. Die Vorbereitung zur eigentlichen Förderung dauert dann oft noch weitere Jahre.



    Da das Wachstum in China ungebrochen und der dortige Lebensstandard noch weit von dem westlicher Länder entfernt ist, dürften die Rohstoffpreise zumindest auf lange Sicht weiter zulegen. Daher sollten Rohstoff- und Edelmetall-Fonds mit einem Anteil von zehn bis 15 Prozent in jedem gut diversifizierten Anlegerportfolio vertreten sein.



    Ein Einzelinvestment sollten Anleger allerdings aus Risikogründen meiden, denn die Rohstoffmärkte funktionieren nach ihren eigenen Regeln. Das musste vor kurzem sogar der wohl berühmteste Investor der Welt, Warren Buffett, erfahren. Der Multi-Milliardär kaufte vor einigen Jahren eine große Silber-Position. Damit erlitt er allerdings einen der größten Verluste seiner erfolgreichen Investment-Geschichte.



    Artikel erschienen am 26. September 2004
    Die Welt

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • 27 Sep 2004 17:13
    27.09.2004 17:11:08 UPDATE 1-Europe gold firmer, palladium at 7-week high


    (updates to afternoon)
    LONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Gold moved higher in Europe on Monday, but remained within recent ranges, while palladium added to last week's gains as speculators turned their attention to a commodity that has relatively underperformed recently.
    Despite gold's modestly firmer tone, traders expected it to remain capped around last week's one-month high at $411.95.
    But ongoing concerns about the inflationary effects of high oil prices, global growth and the U.S. current account deficit would prop up prices, they said.
    By 1504 GMT, spot gold moved up to $409.25/410.00 a troy ounce, from a late quote on Friday in New York of $407.55/408.30.
    "I still see it in a $407-411 range. I can't see it breaking out and expect gold to remain within a narrowing range," one trader said.
    Monday marks the first day of the new Central Bank Gold Agreement. In March, the pact's 15 signatories agreed to raise the limit for total official gold sales to 2,500 tonnes over five years, but confusion has emerged over when and how major sellers would act.
    Some analysts believe an upcoming International Monetary Fund meeting (on Oct 1) may give further clues as to whether allocations will be taken up or not.
    Near-term market direction would continue to be dictated by currencies and various U.S. economic data due out through the week.
    Silver gained to $6.51/6.54 from $6.38/6.41, tracking a firmer gold price and buoyancy in the base metals complex.


    PALLADIUM ESCAPES RANGE
    Platinum group metals were both buoyant, benefitting from renewed speculative interest. Palladium was last quoted at $221.00/226.00, having peaked at $223 to match an August 10 high and up from previous $218.00/224.00.
    Platinum matched Friday's three-week high at $855 and was last quoted at $853.00/857.00 from $850.00/855.00.
    Barclays Capital said in a report that palladium's rise was not due to any substantive improvement in physical fundamentals, but to its underperformance in recent weeks that improved its risk:reward ratio for speculative investors.
    Alexander Zumpfe of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said industrial demand existed but remained thin.
    "I think it has gained some upward momentum...by the fact that it was simply looking cheap. However, we have these rallies from time to time and...then fall back again," he said.
    "So I am still not convinced that we will see a longer period of stronger palladium prices."
    PGMs also took heart from news that South Africa's National Union of Mineworkers issued a 48-hour strike notice against the world's two biggest platinum producers Angloplat (/AMSJ.J) and Implats (/IMPJ.J) over wages.
    The two firms account for more than half of global platinum output.

  • 27 Sep 2004 19:28



    27.09.2004 19:08:43 Commodities News Summary



    (For full story click on figures in brackets) TOP NEWS


    > CBOT wheat choppy, follows corn and soy higher [nN27440751]


    CHICAGO - Chicago Board of Trade soft red winter wheat futures trade was choppy and range-bound on Monday, with the strength in CBOT corn and soybeans helping to turn the market around, traders said.


    CBOT wheat futures were 1 to 3 cents per bushel higher by 11:15 a.m. CDT (1615 GMT), with December up 1-3/4 cents at $3.23-1/2.


    - - - -



    > No quick end to Asian bird flu epidemic -FAO/OIE [nL27494728]


    PARIS - The bird flu epidemic in Asia is unlikely to be eradicated in the near future and more investment is needed to counter the continued threat to human health, two world animal health bodies said on Monday.


    Pointing to recent outbreaks of the disease in China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia and Thailand, the groups said the region needed to strengthen surveillance and control measures.


    - - - -






    GRAINS, OILSEEDS, LIVESTOCK
    > CBOT corn up on technicals after hits contract low [nN27439600]


    CHICAGO - Corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were higher on Monday on a technical bounce after new-crop December hit a contract low for the 11th straight session on Friday and again shortly after the open, traders said.


    CBOT corn futures were 1 to 4-1/4 cents per bushel higher by 11:00 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT). December was up 4-1/4 cents at $2.09-1/2, following its dip to a contract low of $2.04-3/4.


    - - - -



    > UPDATE 1-Egypt says wheat, sugar stocks enough for [nL27560046]


    CAIRO - Egypt has enough wheat stocks in storage or under contract from suppliers to last until February and enough stocks of sugar for subsidised sales to last more than eight months, the government said on Monday.


    A cabinet statement said Egypt had 1.6 million tonnes of wheat in storage and a further 1.4 million tonnes under contract. It said the amount of sugar stored for subsidised sale was 322,000 tonnes.


    - - - -



    > Good harvest weather forecast for US corn, soy [nN27422328]


    CHICAGO - Generally favorable harvest weather was forecast for the U.S. Midwest corn and soybean growing region for the next five days, a private forecaster said on Monday.


    "It could get chilly in the northern Midwest on Tuesday morning and again into the weekend, but there isn't any chance of a hard freeze," said Meteorlogix forecaster Joel Burgio.


    - - - -



    > Dry weather hurting Argentina's 04/05 wheat--repor [nN27283303]


    BUENOS AIRES, Argentina - Dry weather is stunting plant development for the 2004/05 wheat crop in central and northern Cordoba and Santa Fe provinces, the second and third largest producers in the country, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said Monday.


    In those same areas, farmers are also praying for rain so they can seed 2004/05 corn.


    - - - -



    > China corn exports waning, crop looks good-USGC [nN27430963]


    WASHINGTON - China will harvest a corn crop of around 120 million tonnes this autumn and its exports may be small enough to prompt Asian millers to seek other suppliers, a U.S. Grains Council official said on Monday.


    In a telephone news conference from China, Todd Meyer, senior director of the council's Beijing office, said a tour of corn-growing provinces indicated "a good crop ... better than last year but not a record crop."


    - - - -



    > UPDATE 1-S.Africa maize stocks rise, exports fall [nL27397641]


    JOHANNESBURG - South Africa's maize stocks have risen and exports fallen on the back of a good harvest and cheaper foreign crops, data showed on Monday, with traders saying futures prices remain too high.


    South Africa's unused maize stocks stood at 8.39 million tonnes in August compared to 7.65 million tonnes at the same time last year, figures showed on Monday.


    - - - -



    > Iran tenders to buy Brazil soyoil, Thai rice [nL27597865]


    LONDON - The Government Trading Corporation of Iran (GTC) said on Monday it was tendering to buy 10,000 tonnes of soyoil on an FOB basis from Brazilian ports.


    It said on its website at http://www.gtcir.com that interested suppliers had to submit offers before 1700 local time (1330 GMT). Shipment is for October 15-November 15.


    - - - -






    METALS
    > COMEX copper adds to gains on strong US home sales [nN27400555]


    NEW YORK - COMEX copper rose to a 6-month high at the open on Monday, driven up by fund buyers catching up to the firmer prices set overnight in the Asian market which carried over to London, along with robust U.S. housing data, traders said.


    Traders said the early move was mostly technical, but strong fundamentals continue to hoist copper prices. On Monday, that lift came with a startling 9.4 percent jump in U.S. new home sales in August, its fastest acceleration in nearly four years. A fresh dip in mortgage interest rates attracted new buyers, the Commerce Department reported on Monday.


    - - - -



    © Reuters 2004

  • 28 Sep 2004 20:56



    28.09.2004 20:53:10 COMEX gold rises to 5-week high as crude tops $50



    NEW YORK, Sept 28 (Reuters) - COMEX gold rose to a five-week high on Tuesday, lifted by worries about the inflation and economic growth impact of today's rise in New York oil prices above $50 a barrel for the first time.


    The dollar lost value amid fears that high energy costs would erode its purchasing power, so investors and traders had an excuse to buy gold, which is seen as a store of value.


    "With the dollar moving inverse to the crude, it's providing some carry-over support to the gold," said David Rinehimer, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets. "In the near term, we have enough uncertainties relative to the election and what the Fed is going to do; it will probably keep the overall trading environment choppy."


    December gold rose $3.50 to $414.20 an ounce. It topped at $414.90, its highest since Aug. 23, up from an overnight low at $404.00. Estimated volume was a moderate 52,000.


    Spot gold closed at $411.80/2.55, up from $408.70/9.50 on Monday. London's late fix was $411.70.


    A report showing weakening consumer confidence in the economy helped lift the euro to $1.2314/25 from $1.2296/02 late Monday, making gold cheaper for European investors.


    "Euro profit-taking and dealer selling in gold has prevented further gains," wrote James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com. "But with U.S. growth showing signs of slowing and oil prices seeing no let-up, then I think we will be seeing a move toward the $420 level in the next few weeks."


    Investment banks took the lead running the market into pre-placed stop-loss purchase orders above $412 an ounce, a level which gold had had trouble clearing in recent trading.


    Some of Tuesday's activity was options-related. London bullion traders tweaked positions before cash options expired at 9:30 a.m. EDT (1330 GMT), a day after options on October futures expired in New York.


    "Options yesterday on the COMEX helped give the market a little bit of support. Now the over-the-counter options expiries this morning gave it some more support," said a COMEX gold broker.


    December silver went up 6.0 cents to $6.61 an ounce, trading from $6.535 to $6.68, its highest price since Sept. 3. Spot silver closed at $6.57/60, up from the Monday's $6.49/52. Tuesday's fix was $6.59.


    A planned strike at the world's two biggest platinum producers sent NYMEX October platinum up $17.50 to $877.00 an ounce, reaching a six-week high at $884.70. Spot platinum fetched $871/876.


    Unions and management were due to meet on Tuesday in last-minute wage talks before workers walk off the job at South Africa's Angloplat (/AMSJ.J) and Implats (/IMPJ.J). The two companies account for more than half of global output of platinum, mainly used in jewelry and automobile pollution control systems.


    December palladium slipped $6.25 to $220.60 an ounce. Spot palladium last traded at $217/222.




    © Reuters 2004

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