Rohstoffnews

15 Nov 2004 09:07

15.11.2004 08:05:05 Gold starts Europe trade near 16-1/4 yr highs

* Gold commences European trading on a strong note, sitting just off a new 16-1/4-year high as the ailing dollar struggled to stay above Friday's all-time low. * Spot quoted at $438.25/439.00 a troy ounce by 0705 GMT, up from New York's late quote on Friday at $437.70/438.20 and just off a peak of $438.80, gold's highest since July 1988. * Silver matches gold's buoyant tone, rising to $7.59/7.62 an ounce, yp from New York's $7.57/7.60 and at its firmest since April. * Platinum trades just near three-month highs at $876.00/881.00 from $871.50/876.50, as Japanese dealers continue to buy ahead of the release of a closely watched industry report from British platinum refiner Johnson Matthey later in the week. * Palladium creeps up to $217.00/222.00 versus previous $215.50/221.50.

© Reuters 2004
15 Nov 2004 09:09

15.11.2004 06:15:23 Gold matches 16-year high as dollar nears euro low

(Updates to afternoon)

SINGAPORE, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Gold touched a 16-year high in Asia on Monday as the dollar traded near a record low against the euro, although a holiday-thinned market held the precious metal back from making more significant gains.

Spot gold was trading at $437.50/$438.25 an ounce by 0424 GMT having hit $438.80 an ounce, a 16-year high also struck on Friday in London trading.

Gold was quoted at $437.70/$438.20 an ounce late in New York on Friday.

Some traders said they expected gold to hit $440, a level last traded in July 1988, during the European trading session after national holidays reduced market activity in Asia.

Singapore and Malaysia were closed for a Muslim holiday on Monday. Markets in Indonesia, which is Southeast Asia's largest gold consumer, are shut the whole week.

The euro was quoted around $1.2963 , near a record high of $1.3006 traded last week. The rise in the euro's value has made dollar-denominated gold cheaper for those buying in the European currency.

"I think we have to really watch the dollar," said Martin Mayne, associate director at N M Rothschild in Sydney.

"The market certainly has been talking about $440 level for a few days now and it looks like it would probably give it a go later on today," he said.

In yen-based Tokyo gold futures, the benchmark October gold contract lost one yen per gram to 1,485 yen as the dollar fell to a seven-month low against the Japanese currency, triggering profit-taking.

Some dealers said spot gold's outlook was positive given it held above crucial price support at $430 an ounce last week despite selling by investors eager to take profits.

"Short covering pushed up the price to around $439 this morning but there was no follow through buying. I don't see any support from the physical market," said a dealer in Hong Kong, a key bullion trading city in East Asia.

"We may see a wider trading range in Europe, probably between $435 and $440. If the resistance is broken, the market may go up to $442," the dealer said.

Gold would watch the currency market for direction but market worries lingered that massive long positions in New York's COMEX market could lead to selling.

The latest weekly Commitments of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the week ended Nov. 9 was delayed until Monday due to the Veterans' Day U.S. holiday on Thursday.

Some traders said gold could trade up to $450 an ounce, a level last seen in June 1988, with some expecting $465 and above as a possibility. Gold last saw prices above $500 in mid-December 1987.

Platinum was at $873/$878 an ounce after hitting a 7-week high at $874 an ounce on buying in Japan. That compared with $871.50/$876.50 an ounce quoted in New York late on Friday.

A key industry report from precious metals refiner Johnson Matthey is due on Tuesday. The report provides estimates on world supply and demand for platinum and palladium.

Palladium rose to $217/$222 an ounce from $215.50/$221.50 in New York.

Silver firmed to around $7.58/$7.61 an ounce from $7.57/$7.60 in New York.

15 Nov 2004 17:49

15.11.2004 17:37:34 Europe gold ends down after hitting 16-1/4 yr peak

* Gold ends slightly lower on profit-taking after scoring a new 16-1/4-year high at $440.00 per ounce as an ailing dollar struggled to stay above Friday's all-time low versus the euro. * Spot bullion ends at $436.05/436.80 a troy ounce by 1615 GMT, compared with New York's late trade on Friday at $437.70/438.20. Euro last quoted at $1.2941. * Spot silver follows gold down after earlier firming to its highest since April at $7.61. At $7.47/7.50 by 1632 GMT, from New York's $7.57/7.60. * Platinum trades near three-month highs at $874.00/879.00 from $871.50/876.50, led by Japanese buying earlier ahead of release of closely watched industry report from British refiner Johnson Matthey on Tuesday. * Palladium flattens out at $215.00/220.00 versus previous $215.50/221.50.

15 Nov 2004 17:50

15.11.2004 17:30:05 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> Veneman resigns, first woman to head USDA [nN15241460]

WASHINGTON - Ann Veneman, the United States' first woman agriculture secretary, has resigned after four years on a job that included widely praised handling of the mad cow crisis last winter, administration sources said on Monday.

The White House was expected to make a formal announcement later in the day. Veneman planned to stay at USDA until a successor can take over.

- - - -

> NY gold backtracks from 16-1/4-year high atop $440 [nN15394967]

NEW YORK - Gold futures in New York fell from a 16-1/4-year peak above $440 an ounce on Monday morning, as cheaper oil eased investors' fears over inflation while the dollar edged up from recent lows against the euro.

Sister metal silver was off from a prior seven-month high, while platinum hit a fresh 6-1/2-week peak on bullish ideas about the content of market analysis due on Tuesday from precious metals refiner Johnson Matthey.

- - - -

> NY coffee leaps 8 pct on supply worries [nN15378960]

NEW YORK - New York coffee futures jumped more than 8 percent Monday on aggressive fund buying amid worries about falling supplies of U.S. coffee and a report of an earthquake in Colombia, traders and analysts said.

"There is talk that there will be a huge reduction in inventories," a trader said, referring to the level of green coffee stocks warehoused in the United States.

- - - -

METALS > COMEX copper drops as profit-takers sell at highs [nN15388207]

NEW YORK - COMEX copper futures fell Monday morning as participants here and in London took profits after red metal prices ended Friday at one-month highs.

- - - -

> Chile doubles copper exports in October from yr ago[nN15218354]

SANTIAGO, Chile - Copper export income in Chile, the world's top producer, doubled in October from the same month last year to $1.433 billion due to high prices and strong demand from China, according to central bank data released on Monday.

- - - -

> European steelmakers profits rise on Asia [nL15628919]

BRUSSELS - European steel makers delivered healthy results on Monday amid strong steel prices supported by China's booming economy, in a fragmented industry showing signs of further consolidation.

Arcelor (/CELR.PA), the world's largest steel maker, reported a more than doubling of third-quarter profits, topping forecasts, and its earnings are set to receive a further boost from the consolidation of a Brazilian unit.

- - - -

> Implats says strike to hit H1 profit, output [nL15696954]

JOHANNESBURG - South Africa's Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (Implats) (/IMPJ.J) said on Monday it had lost around 44,300 ounces of platinum production and around 177 million rand ($29.32 million) in net profit due to a strike that ended last month.

Implats, the world's second biggest platinum producer, said it hoped to make up the lost mine production by the end of the financial year next June.

- - - -

> Union at Poland's KGHM strikes 2005 pay rise deal [nL15688060]

WARSAW - Polish non-ferrous metals producer KGHM (KGHM.DE) on Monday signed a deal with the company's biggest trade union to raise wages by an average of 9 to 10 percent next year, a supervisory board member said.

Wages at the world's sixth largest copper producer are to rise by an average of 8-9 percent this year, far above the country's average annual inflation, seen at around 3.5 percent.

- - - -

SOFT COMMODITIES
> Ivorian Oct cocoa exports from San Pedro drop [nL15680542]

ABIDJAN - Cocoa bean exports from Ivory Coast's southwestern port of San Pedro totalled 15,628 tonnes during October, down seven percent from the same month a year ago, port data showed on Monday.

One leading shipper in the town said a farmers' strike in the world's top cocoa grower had weighed on exports last month.

- - - -

GRAINS, OILSEEDS, LIVESTOCK
> CBOT wheat, corn climb early following soybeans [nN15243731]

CHICAGO - Chicago Board of Trade wheat and corn futures climbed early on Monday on short-covering, following the strength in soybeans, traders said.

Soybeans were boosted by concerns that the yield-cutting soy rust disease may have spread to three more fields in Louisiana.

15 Nov 2004 17:50

15.11.2004 17:06:29 UPDATE 2-Gold hits $440/oz, new 16-year high on weak dollar

(writes through with fresh quotes, comments)

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Gold hit $440.00 an ounce, its highest in 16-1/4 years, in Europe on Monday and was seen consolidating before rising further on a shaky dollar.

Dealers were eyeing $450 -- last seen in June 1988 -- as dollar weakness on worries about the U.S. current account deficit strengthened the attraction of bullion for non-U.S. investors.

They said however that the market did not seem to be in a hurry, with prices likely to consolidate slightly lower before resuming upwards.

"The market wants and sees that it has the potential to go higher, but it won't happen quickly," Peter Hillyard, head of European metal sales at ANZ Bank said.

"We'll probably see another crack at $440 but not today. There's more chance of seeing it back down to the $433 area before it goes up again," he added.

After hitting $440 as the dollar hit a nine-year low against a basket of major currencies, spot gold fell to $436.25/437.00 per troy ounce by 1559 GMT from New York's late quote on Friday at $437.70/438.20.

The U.S. currency later strengthened slightly as dealers took profits in preparation for a fresh wave of dollar selling.

Analyst Frederic Panizzutti of MKS Finance said that a move to $450 depended on another drop in the U.S. currency.

DOLLAR WEAKNESS
The dollar, down more than five percent against major currencies since October, ignored upbeat U.S. economic data last week as currency markets focused on speculation Washington was happy to see a weaker currency, which would help narrow the deficit. The euro was last at $1.2933.

Analysts said the expected imminent launch of an exchange-traded gold fund in New York was adding to positive sentiment.

The gold-backed security, known as streetTRACKS, is designed as an alternative to investing in physical gold which is an expensive buy for small retail players.

Platinum also strengthened after a run up on Friday when Asian dealers speculated about the contents of a forecast from precious metals refiner Johnson Matthey.

Traders expect a bulllish tone to figures in JM's report, due on Tuesday.

Spot platinum stood at $875.00/879.00, compared with $871.50/876.50 late in New York on Friday.

"Should tomorrow's report fail to provide such bullish data, as some expect, a correction appears to be a logical consequence with levels around $850 likely to provide initial resistance," Alexander Zumpfe of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said in a daily report.

Palladium was at $215.00/219.00 from $215.50/221.50 in New York previously.

Silver followed gold, settling back slightly after hitting a peak last seen in April at $7.61.

Spot silver was last at $7.49/7.52 from $7.57/7.60 previously.

15 Nov 2004 20:44

15.11.2004 20:42:19 COMEX gold slips off 16-1/4-year peak to end lower

NEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Gold futures in New York closed lower on Monday after briefly flickering above $440 an ounce to a 16-1/4-year peak, as traders cashed in on gains with the dollar firming against the euro and oil prices in retreat.

December delivery gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division shed $1.00 to settle at $437.30 an ounce.

In overnight NYMEX ACCESS electronic trading, December gold touched a new contract peak at $440.60, which was the highest for futures since July 1988. The session low was $436.30.

Profit-taking knocked gold as dealers said they digested consolidation in the U.S. currency and oil's slide to a two-month low due to easing fears over winter fuel supplies.

A firmer dollar typically dents demand for the precious metal, which is priced in gold, for non-U.S. buyers.

"Currency-led buying in Asia overnight as the yen rose to its highest level in seven months took gold to $439, while progressive buying leading into the U.S. open eventually saw gold touch $440.10 before running into profit-taking once the U.S. session was underway," said James Moore at TheBullionDesk.com.

Traders said the metal could slide toward $430 support on liquidation out of the towering speculative net long position in the market.

But buyers were likely to be aggressive on price dips due to decent physical demand, a weak dollar and bullishness related to the expected launch this week of new exchange-traded fund streetTRACKS Gold Trust.

"The key number here is the euro at $1.30, and if it gets above there, gold should go higher," said Leonard Kaplan of Prospector Asset Management.

Technically, brokers pegged resistance at $440 an ounce, followed by $450 and $460, with support viewed at $430, $425 and $410.

At midafternoon, the euro was down at $1.2932, off from Friday's high around $1.2987 and last week's all-time high at $1.3005.

U.S. crude futures fell 72 cents to $46.60 a barrel, sharply lower from a recent record peak above $55.

Closely watched weekly Commitments of Traders data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the week ended Nov. 9 will be delayed until Monday afternoon due to the Veterans' Day U.S. holiday.

Spot gold last was at $436.45/7.20, against its earlier 16-1/4-year high at $440 and Friday's New York close at $437.70/8.20. Monday's London afternoon fix was at $437.60.

Silver finished down from a prior seven-month high, while platinum hit a fresh 6-1/2-week peak on bullish ideas about the content of market analysis due on Tuesday from precious metals refiner Johnson Matthey.

COMEX December silver lost 5.0 cents to $7.572 an ounce, within a range of $7.66 and $7.495. Spot traded to $7.53/56, just below the last close at $7.57/60. The fix in London was $7.59.

NYMEX January platinum rose $3.10 to $877.30 an ounce. Spot platinum was stable at $874/879.

December palladium fell $1.65 to $219.50 an ounce. Spot palladium hit $214.50/220.50.

16 Nov 2004 09:10

16.11.2004 08:10:52 Gold off 16-year high in Asia, wary over COMEX

(Adds premiums in Singapore in paragraph 14)

By Lewa Pardomuan

SINGAPORE, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Gold traded below a 16-year peak on Tuesday after a U.S. dollar rebound took the shine off the metal's safe-haven appeal, and as a buildup of long positions in New York raised fears of heavy liquidation.

Spot gold was at $436.25/437.00 an ounce at 0627 GMT, little changed from $436.45/437.20 in New York late on Monday. Gold had hit $440 an ounce in Europe on Monday before profit-taking erased some gains.

Some dealers said gold could drop below immediate support of $432 an ounce if investors liquidate large speculative net long positions in New York.

The weekly Commitments of Traders data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said the long position in COMEX gold increased to 117,853 lots in the week through Nov. 9, from 111,437 contracts a week earlier.

"The momentum has gone strongly overbought, so we do want a retracement which may bring us down to around $417," a level seen earlier this month, said an analyst in Sydney.

Analysts believe a rebound from $417 would spark a new rally which could bring the markets towards $480 an ounce, a level last traded in early 1988.

"A drop under $417 will confirm that an attempt to break above $432 has failed," said the analyst in Sydney.

Some analysts expected a trading range between $425 and $437 an ounce this week, with the currency market providing direction.

The euro was at $1.2932 , down from around $1.2950 in late U.S. trade and off last week's record high of $1.3006.

The dollar's rebound was triggered by a fall in U.S. oil prices to a two-month low near $45 a barrel on Monday -- a drop that has tarnished gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation.

PREMIUMS UNDER PRESSURE
In Hong Kong, a key bullion trading city in East Asia, gold bars were at a discount of 30-40 U.S. cents an ounce to London physical prices, widening from 20-30 cents last week as holders sold gold to take advantage of a firm bullion price .

Dealers noted some sales by Japanese investors but those from mainland China were holding back, probably waiting for more price hikes before they cashed in their holdings.

"(There was) only a slight selling from the Japanese this morning. There's nothing special in the market and people are just waiting," said Ellison Chu, a senior manager at Standard Bank London.

Gold bars were on a par to London prices in Singapore, compared with a premium of 10 U.S. cents an ounce last week after goldsmiths and holders of scrap gold sold their possessions. The city-state is a centre for bullion trading in Southeast Asia.

In other precious metals, platinum paused for breath after touching a three-month high at $879 an ounce on Monday, mainly due to speculative buying in Japan ahead of the release of an expected bullish supply and demand report by precious metals refiner Johnson Matthey later on Tuesday.

Platinum fell to $865/870 an ounce from $874/879 late in New York. Sister metal palladium was steady at $215/220 an ounce, versus $214.50/220.50.

Silver stood around $7.49/7.50 an ounce, versus $7.53/7.56.

In Tokyo gold futures, the benchmark October gold contract lost 6 yen per gram to 1,481 yen.
16 Nov 2004 09:11

16.11.2004 08:50:41 TOCOM platinum falls on profit-taking, gold eases

TOKYO, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Tokyo platinum futures finished lower on Tuesday, succumbing to profit-taking after their jump to a five-week high the previous day on speculative buying.

Gold futures posted small losses, weighed down by a fall in the spot market, as a recovering dollar weakened buying interest in the safe-haven metal, brokers said.

The October 2005 platinum contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) ended down 54 yen per gram at 2,860, slipping from a five-week high of 2,919 yen set on Monday.

Other months were 33 to 56 yen lower at the close.

"The market was vulnerable to long liquidation as the latest rally was so steep," a Tokyo broker said.

By the end of Monday benchmark platinum had gained 168 yen or 6.1 percent from the recent low of 2,746 yen marked on Nov. 2.

The market rallied on Monday amid expectations of an upbeat report by British platinum refiner Johnson Matthey on supply-demand conditions and a price outlook for the white metal.

The report is due out at 1300 GMT on Tuesday.

TOCOM platinum is expected to swing widely this week depending on the contents of the Matthey report, with resistance seen at 2,950 yen and support at 2,750 yen, the broker said.

Spot platinum was quoted at $863/868 an ounce at 0630 GMT, down from $874/879 in late New York.

In the gold market, TOCOM's benchmark October contract settled down four yen per gram at 1,483. Other months were three to six yen lower at the close.

Activity was light as many investors shunned the range-bound market. The October contract was confined to a tight band between 1,478 and 1,484 yen on Tuesday, with rises capped by a weaker spot market and support coming from a softer yen.

Bullion traded below a 16-year peak on Tuesday after the dollar's rebound took the shine off the metal's safe-haven appeal, and as a buildup of long positions in New York raised fears of heavy liquidation.

Spot gold was quoted at $436.00/50 an ounce at 0630 GMT, down from New York's last quoted $436.45/437.20 and the over 16-year high of $440 set on Monday.

The dollar ticked up on Tuesday, extending its rebound from the previous day's seven-month low versus the yen after a sharp fall in oil prices led traders to scale back their bloated dollar-selling positions.

The dollar was at 105.51/56 yen at 0630 GMT, off the seven-month low of 105.16 hit on Monday.

The euro was at $1.2932/34 , down from around $1.2950 in late U.S. trade and its record high of $1.3006 hit last week.

Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

Closing prices are in yen per gram except for silver, which is in yen per 10 grams:

For open interest details please click
Closing price Turnover (lots)
GOLD 1,483 (down 4) 46,523
SILVER 251.9 (down 3.6) 3,396
PLATINUM 2,860 (down 54) 64,164
PALLADIUM 742 (down 7) 410

16 Nov 2004 09:39

16.11.2004 09:36:39 UPDATE 2-Most of China's copper futures close limit-down

From Nov. 10, Reuters began quoting daily price changes based on the previous day's settlements, in compliance with data now carried on Reuters and supplied by the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

Previously, Reuters had quoted daily price changes based on domestic closing prices.

(Adds closing prices, trader's comments)

SHANGHAI, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Most Chinese copper futures contracts slid their 3 percent daily limits on Tuesday, as investors cashed in gains from rallies over the past three weeks, traders said.

The most active January contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dived 890 yuan to close at 28,660 yuan ($3,463) a tonne, retreating after a 12 percent jump from Oct. 20 to Monday's settlement.

"Profit-taking emerged from the start of trading after spot prices showed signs of weakening," said a Shanghai trader. "We expect this correction to extend over coming days as recent high spot prices had triggered widespread jitters."

Shanghai's copper futures had rallied recently due to tight supply on domestic spot markets after below-average imports from May to August. Imports had risen since September but had yet to resolve underlying shortages, traders said.

Spot prices led gains, and have been hovering for weeks near their highest in a decade.

But on Tuesday, spot copper in Shanghai plunged 930 yuan to close at 31,320-31,470 yuan per tonne, traders said.

On the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper managed to hold above the $3,000 level on Monday, ending the kerb session at $3,004 a tonne, down $13 from Friday.

In Asian trade on Tuesday, it had fallen $78 per tonne to $2,930/$2,940 by 0408 GMT after opening at $3,003/$3,013.

Other Shanghai copper futures contracts dived between 640 yuan and 940 yuan per tonne on Tuesday, with volume more than doubling to 211,824 lots from 102,340 lots on Monday.

Affected by copper's losses, most domestic aluminium contracts closed down between 200 and 230 yuan a tonne as volume fell to a puny 5,090 lots from 32,368 lots.

The price ratio between Shanghai's March copper contract and the LME three-month narrowed to 9.1 at the close of the Shanghai market at 0710 GMT.

Investors tend to buy LME copper when the ratio exceeds 10.3, which accounts for import and shipping fees. ($1=8.276 Yuan)

© Reuters 2004

16 Nov 2004 13:19

16.11.2004 13:11:25 Europe gold steady just off 16-yr peak

LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Gold prices sat just below the previous day's 16-1/4 year peak on Tuesday in Europe, with expectations of further dollar weakness seen taking bullion to $450 an ounce and beyond.

Traders said the market was steady and awaiting the release of U.S. economic data throughout the week to sway the dollar.

"The dollar maintains it dart to the bottom right-hand corner of the graph and gold will benefit," one trader said.

Spot gold was at $437.85/438.35 by 1152 GMT, up from New York's late quote on Monday of $436.45/437.20. Prices peaked at $440 on Monday, their highest since late July 1988.

Analysts and traders said expectations of further inflows of demand with the imminent release of a new exchange-traded gold fund in New York were also enhancing gold's allure.

Investors and speculators had filled their boots in the latest rally, with the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report showing a net long position on the New York futures market near the all-time high set earlier in the year.

"This should limit the outperformance by gold of the euro in the near term, although further dollar weakness will see both the euro and gold higher," John Reade, analyst with UBS Investment Bank, said in a report.

The dollar was within half a cent of last week's record low against the euro as investors awaited data to indicate how easily the United States can fund its current acount deficit.

The euro was trading around $1.2966 at 1122 GMT.

"I think this rally is a little bit more professionally based. Professional fund managers are prepared to take profits and have another look," the trader said.

Silver was barely moved at $7.49/7.52, slightly down on New York's $7.53/7.56.

Platinum slipped back after several days of buying from Asia ahead of today's release of an interim market report by UK refiner Johnson Matthey.

Traders said an upbeat report could push platinum towards $900, while a negative one had the potential to trigger liquidation that might take prices back towards $825/800.

Palladium was steady at $215.00/219.00 from $214.50/220.50.

16 Nov 2004 14:55

16.11.2004 14:51:54 Huge PPI rise pressures LME metals lower

* LME metals drop sharply after a 1.7 percent increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for October versus a 0.1 percent in September. Analysts had expected a 0.5 percent rise. * Copper falls $42 to $2,962/66 a tonne by 1347 GMT. Copper ended the second morning rings at $2,978. * Aluminium falls $5 to $1,793/94, having climbed $5 above Monday's close in the second rings. * Nickel drops $175 to $14,325 bid and lead drops $5 to $949/50 having hit $957 in the second rings. Zinc and tin also lower.

16 Nov 2004 16:38

16.11.2004 16:33:28 NY gold lifted by PPI surge, misses new high

NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures rose Tuesday morning after October's producer price index posted the biggest jump in 15 years, but futures just missed a new 16-year high, with little follow-through buying for inflation hedges.

"It's all dollar-related -- PPI came out," a bullion trader said.

The Labor Department said pipeline inflation rose 1.7 percent last month, the largest increase since January 1990. The market was looking for a 0.5 percent jump after September's tame 0.1 percent increase. Subtracting food and energy prices, the PPI went up 0.3 percent.

December gold rose to $440.40 an ounce, just off Monday's peak at $440.60, before trimming gains when the struggling dollar steadied against the euro.

At 10:08 a.m. EST the contract was up $2.90 at $440.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, after setting an overnight low of $436.20.

"The euro has come back off and the Aussie dollar has come back off, so they are starting to pull back on the gold a bit here," said a floor broker.

Still, the market has set its sights on $450 for gold, expecting that the dollar will keep sliding on perceptions that the second Bush administration will tolerate a weakening currency to make U.S. exports more competitive, even as they profess to maintain a strong dollar policy.

The weak dollar makes it cheaper for foreign currency investors to buy bullion. It also discourages selling from producer countries like Australia.

The U.S. dollar index is near a nine-year high. But traders have said gold may not start churning into the $440s until the euro gets established above $1.30. The almost-six-year-old European currency hit a lifetime high at $1.3005 on Thursday.

Retreating oil prices have tempered some of the ardor for gold as store of value. Yet, funds appear to have rotated some of the money they pulled out of oil futures back into gold and other commodities.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's commitments of traders report, released a day late on Monday due to last week's Veteran's Day holiday, showed the net speculative long position in gold increased to 117,853 lots from 111,437 contracts in the week to Nov. 9.

"It's possible that we've seen the peak for this cycle, with fund managers stopping shy of the 144,253 contract peak from April 6, not necessarily wanting to stretch the risk envelope this late in the year," wrote analyst Timothy Evans at IFR/Pegasus.

Spot gold fetched $437.75/8.50, up from $436.45/7.20 at Monday's close. The morning fix was $437.95.

December silver was off 3.7 cents at $7.535 an ounce, trading from $7.62 to $7.48. Spot was at $7.50/53, off from $7.53/56. The fix in London was $7.5050.

January platinum was off $10.30 at $867 an ounce. Spot platinum was at $865/870.

December palladium was up 70 cents at $220.20 an ounce. Spot palladium hit $216.00/220.00.

16 Nov 2004 17:16

16.11.2004 16:56:00 UPDATE 1-Europe gold touches new 16-1/4 yr peak

LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Gold touched $440.25 per ounce on Tuesday in Europe, scoring a new 16-1/4 year high for the third day running, with the market poised for more gains.

Expectations of further dollar weakness amid worries over the U.S. current account gap were seen taking bullion to $445, ahead of $450, as a falling U.S. currency strengthened the metal's appeal for non-U.S. investors.

"Gold's made a second charge for the $440 level, if it can get through there we're probably looking at $445 but there's quite a bit of resistance," a dealer said.

Spot gold was at $439.95/440.70 by 1542 GMT, up from New York's late quote on Monday of $436.45/437.20.

Analysts and traders said expectations of further inflows of demand with the imminent release of a new exchange-traded gold fund in New York were also enhancing gold's allure.

Investors and speculators had filled their boots in the latest rally, with the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report showing a net long position on the New York futures market near the all-time high set earlier in the year.

"This should limit the outperformance by gold of the euro in the near term, although further dollar weakness will see both the euro and gold higher," John Reade, analyst with UBS Investment Bank, said in a report.

The dollar won some relief from mounting selling pressure on Tuesday after a U.S. government report showed an increase in U.S. capital inflows in September.

But that was not enough to remove negative sentiment towards the dollar as many analysts maintained the view that Washington wanted a weaker dollar to curb the burgeoning U.S. current account deficit.

Silver followed gold's move higher, firming to $7.56/7.59 from New York's $7.53/7.56.

Platinum slipped back after several days of buying from Asia as precious metals refiner Johnson Matthey released its key outlook report.

Its Platinum 2004 Interin Review showed the global platinum market was expected to move into surplus for the first time in several years in 2005.

But the metal, used in jewellery and to clean exhaust emissions in autocatalysts, could be in short supply by 40,000 ounces in 2004 due to a reduced South African supply forecast, JM said, reversing its forecast in May of a possible surplus.

Spot platinum was at $864.00/869.00 from $874.00/$879.00 previously.

Palladium rose slightly to $216.00/220.00 from $214.50/220.50.

"Kriegsberichterstattung" heute mit Verspätung...

17 Nov 2004 00:38

16.11.2004 21:58:45 COMEX copper ends down on supply rumors, PPI surge

NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - COMEX copper futures fell on Tuesday as funds unloaded some of their holdings initially to follow the selling in Asian and London markets, then added to losses when U.S. producer prices showed a surprising surge, traders said.

"When we started out, there was talk the Chinese were selling copper out of their stockpile. I think that's what put the jitters in the market to begin with. But I think everyone had sold their souls halfway down, until there wasn't any follow through (selling)," said one copper dealer.

"That was the panic button, but then we recovered reasonably well," he added.

Benchmark December copper on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division dropped 1.85 cents to finish at $1.3690 a lb, in a range that extended down to $1.3520 from a one-month high of $1.3970 set on Monday.

Spot November copper fell 1.75 to end at $1.4190, while other contracts settled down 1.75 to 2.25 cents.

COMEX estimated final copper volume at 12,000 lots.

Whether material was actually released from the Chinese stockpile will not be known until possibly copper goes back on warrant or stocks drops in some of the Asian warehouses.

"Obviously, stop (loss sell orders) had been triggered all the way down, a lot of paper cleaned out, then it just created a little bit of a vaccum on the upside," the trader said.

"Considering where we were to where we finished, I think it was a fitting end," he added.

One trader called the selling "a good, healthy correction as long as it stays roughly around these levels."

Brokers said rollovers out of December contracts and into March copper were also undermining prices on Tuesday.

A surge in the U.S. producer price index did not help already falling red metal prices.

U.S. producer prices shot up 1.7 percent in October, posting their largest gain in nearly 15 years. The rise was well above expectations for a 0.5 percent price rise, as energy costs skyrocketed and food prices surged.

Analysts said the report supported the case for the Federal Reserve to continue lifting U.S. interest rates.

Some players think copper selling may have run its course on Tuesday, with a number of bullish fundamentals supporting prices, like inventory levels that date back to 1990 lows and a strike at Chile's El Abra mines.

Officials at the Chilean mine, majority owned by U.S.-based Phelps Dodge Corp. (/PD.N) said on Tuesday they were reviewing a potential agreement with union workers to end a 12-day strike at the mine.

London Metal Exchange warehouse copper stocks fell by 425 tonnes to 67,125 tonnes on Tuesday.

LME three-months copper slid to $2,944 a tonne by Tuesday's kerb close, down sharply from the Monday finish at $3,004. Early losses led down to $2,924, which was well below Monday's one-month peak of $3,030 a tonne.

17 Nov 2004 00:43

16.11.2004 21:09:49 NY gold closes at new multiyear peak above $440/oz

NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures closed at a 16-1/4-year high on Tuesday as the market extended its bull move above $440 an ounce, aided by a weak dollar that made the metal cheaper to buy for overseas investors.

Silver rode gold's coattails higher, while platinum fell after dealers digested a report from precious metals refiner Johnson Matthey forecasting a platinum surplus next year.

December delivery gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division ended at $440.50 an ounce, its highest close since July 1988, and up $3.20 on the day, after moving between $436.20 and a life-of-contract high of $441.40.

Estimated turnover was a brisk 75,000 contracts.

Prices closed higher for the third straight session, with bank buying helping gold stay atop $440 an ounce-- a level that it previously had trouble holding, said trading sources.

Meanwhile, the dollar slipped versus the euro to near its all-time low as a generally positive U.S. capital flows report did little to ease fears about the huge U.S. trade deficit.

"The quality of the data was less favorable to the dollar, and that's what gave gold a boost," said Refco analyst Tom Boustead.

U.S. net inflows of capital totaled $63.4 billion in September, after an upwardly revised $59.9 billion in August.

The weak dollar makes it cheaper for foreign currency investors to buy bullion.

The market has set its sights on $450 for gold, expecting that the dollar will keep sliding on perceptions that the second Bush administration will tolerate a weakening currency to make U.S. exports more competitive, even as they profess to maintain a strong dollar policy.

The almost-six-year-old European currency hit a lifetime high at $1.3005 on Thursday.

"The important thing (for gold) might be right now to to see how the euro is closing -- to see if it can break firmly above the $1.30 mark," said Boustead.

In other data that initially supported gold on Tuesday, U.S. producer prices shot up 1.7 percent last month, the largest increase since January 1990, and above expectations for a 0.5 percent jump. Subtracting food and energy prices, the PPI went up 0.3 percent.

Slipping oil prices have tempered some of the ardor for gold as store of value. Yet, funds appeared to have rotated some of the money they pulled out of oil futures back into gold and other commodities, market data has showed.

Spot gold last was worth $439.75/0.50, against an earlier 16-1/4-year high at $440.25 and Monday's New York close at $436.45/7.20. Tuesday's London afternoon fix was at $439.40.

December silver rose 2.0 cents to $7.592 an ounce, trading from $7.48 to $7.63. Spot was at $7.54/57, up from $7.53/56 previously. The fix in London was $7.5050.

January platinum fell $8.40 to $868.90 an ounce. Spot platinum traded down to $864/869.

December palladium rose $2.50 to $222 an ounce. Spot palladium stalled out at $215.00/221.00.

© Reuters 2004

17 Nov 2004 08:46

17.11.2004 08:02:24 Gold hits fresh 16-1/4-year high on currency buys

SYDNEY, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Gold rose to a fresh 16-1/4-year peak on Wednesday as a weak U.S. dollar sparked buying at the start of European trading.

Spot gold firmed nearly $1 to $440.50 an ounce after barely budging in Asian trading.

Bullion dealers said gold was benefiting from more active European trading given the dollar's steeper slide against European currencies compared to Asia of late.

Gold climbed as high as $440.25 an ounce in New York trading overnight.

At 0650 GMT, gold had recoiled to $440 an ounce.

17 Nov 2004 08:47

17.11.2004 04:11:07 Spot gold down in Asia, eyes on G20 meeting

* Gold eased in early Asian trade on Wednesday, down from the 16-1/4-year high it reached in New York, as buyers stayed on the sidelines, waiting for what officials from the Group of 20 countries might say about the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar.

* The body, encompassing the Group of Seven developed countries as well as major developing nations including China, is expected to discuss foreign exchange issues at a weekend meeting.

* Bullion dealers were also eyeing dollar movements after a government report said U.S. producer prices had their biggest gain in nearly 15 years, raising concerns of higher inflation.

* By 0250 GMT, spot gold was trading at $439.25 an ounce, versus $439.75 in New York and an earlier 16-1/4-year high of $440.25. Tuesday's London afternoon fix was at $439.40.

* In Tokyo gold futures, the benchmark October gold contract was up 7 yen per gram at 1,490 yen.

* Platinum was at $863/868 an ounce.

* Sister metal palladium was at $216/221 an ounce.

* Silver stood around $7.54/7.56 an ounce.

17 Nov 2004 10:40

17.11.2004 10:26:01 Gold climbs to new 16-year peaks on ailing dollar

By Clare Black

LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Buoyant gold forged higher in Europe on Wednesday, hitting fresh 16-1/4 year highs for the fourth day running, as dollar weakness paved the way for bullion to step up to $450 an ounce.

Gold's three-year bull run has picked up pace this year thanks mainly to the weak dollar, although heightened geopolitical tension has also played an important role.

A wider array of investors have also poured money into the commodities arena as the raw materials sector has outperformed more traditional asset classes such as equities and bonds.

"The interest this year for gold across the world has certainly increased significantly," Frederic Panizzutti, senior vice president at MKS Finance said.

Spot gold gained just over half a percent in early trade to score its highest since July 1988, indicated at $442.50/443.00 a troy ounce by 0912 GMT, up from New York's late quote on Tuesday of $439.75/440.50.

"$445 seems to be the target for the time being and we're pretty close to that already," one trader said.

"I am almost sure we are going to reach that this week and maybe $450 by the end of the year."

Gold is up nearly 75 percent from a near 20-year low in 2001, when it slumped under the weight of forward selling from producers and central banks liquidating their gold reserves.

But miners have now changed tack and have been buying back their gold sales contracts, while 15 European central banks signed a pact to limit their sales.

NEW GOLD FUND LAUNCH
Hopes for investment from the retail sector were also growing with the launch of new exchange-traded gold funds.

Although the general public is an avid investor in some parts of the world, small western investors are less enthusiastic due mainly to the difficulty in investing in gold.

One such fund was expected to be launched any day on the New York Stock Exchange and analysts said some buying in the market may be related to that.

"One has to wait and see whether this demand is sustainable or just a short-lived fashion appearance," Alexander Zumpfe, analyst with Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said. James Moore, analyst with TheBullionDesk.com warned about near-record net long positions held by funds on the New York futures market, that may be unwound.

"Although we believe this bull run has legs to run, it may well need to see lower in December before higher in the New Year," he said in a report.

"We stick with our view that gold will reach $450 before the year is out."

© Reuters 2004

17 Nov 2004 13:27

17.11.2004 12:58:21 Europe gold hits new 16-yr peak as dollar sags

LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Gold registered its fourth successive 16-1/4 year peak in Europe on Wednesday, touching $444.60 an ounce as dollar weakness heightened the metal's allure for non-U.S. investors, dealers said.

The dollar fell to a record low against the euro at $1.3047 as worries mounted that a coming G20 finance ministers' meeting could do little to halt the currency's slide.

Most players expect the U.S. currency to remain under pressure so long as the market focuses on the ballooning U.S. current account gap and believes Washington wants a weaker dollar to curb that.

Bullion dealers also saw the prospect of increased investment demand for gold with the imminent launch of new exchange-trade gold funds (ETFs) in the United States.

ETFs are seen as an alternative to investing in physical gold, which is an expensive buy for small retail players.

Spot gold was quoted at $443.50/444.25 by 1128 GMT, compared with $439.75/444.50 late in New York on Tuesday.

"Everything's related to currency moves at the moment, with a lot of build up in anticipation of the ETF products due to be released later this week or beginning of next week. People are building up inventories in expectation of this," Simon Weeks of ScotiaMocatta said.

Weeks saw resistance at $445 as the market's next target, but the euro would probably need to break even higher against the dollar for that to happen.

He also highlighted the growing risks posed by high speculative exposure to bullion on New York's COMEX futures market -- which might provoke a stinging sell-off if investors decided to take profits.

"Everything is helping gold at the moment, and people are still looking for the upside. But if ETFs don't get off to as good a start as hoped we could be back to the $430 level." Analyst Frederic Panizzutti of MKS Finance cited added support for bullion from geopolitical worries and the inflationary impact of high oil prices.

"Taking all these matters into consideration it is likely that gold will reach higher levels before year end," he added, putting the most imminent target at $450.

In other precious metals, silver picked up in line with gold to $7.62/7.65 from late New York's $7.54/7.57 on Tuesday.

Platinun firmed slightly to $865.00/870.00 from $864.00/869.00, while palladium was at $216.00/221.00 from $215.00/221.00

17 Nov 2004 13:31

17.11.2004 13:24:50 Copper firm in first rings, regains $3,000

* Base metals all firmer in Wedenesday's open outcry session as two percent gains in copper inject life into rest of market. * Copper gains $60 to $3,004 a tonne in the first morning rings compared with Tuesday's kerb close, maintaining overnight bounce. * Aided by 1,800-tonne inventory decline. Tight supply reflected in spreads, with cash-to-threes backwardation moving out to $130/130.5 from $126 previously. * Aluminium up at $1,806 from $1,793, and managing to stay above $1,800. Needs to punch through resistance at $1,830/40 to make further headway. * Nickel up $125 at $14,375. * Zinc at $1,140 versus $1,125 on Tuesday. Continues recent solid performance above $1,100.

Auch Putin ist bullish für Gold...

17 Nov 2004 13:48

17.11.2004 13:41:58 Putin - Russland entwickelt neue Atomraketen

Moskau, 17. Nov (Reuters) - Russland entwickelt derzeit neuartige atomare Raketensysteme und will sich damit nach den Worten von Präsident Wladimir Putin gegen künftige Sicherheitsgefahren wappnen.

"Ich bin sicher, dass in naher Zukunft Waffen auftauchen werden, ... die andere Atommächte nicht haben und nicht besitzen werden", sagte Putin am Mittwoch vor den Chefs der russischen Streitkräfte ohne nähere Angaben zu machen. Die Gefahr durch den internationalen Terrorismus stelle zwar eine der größten Bedrohungen dar, doch müsse das Land auch seine atomare Verteidigung in einem vernünftigen Zustand halten.

"Wir wissen, dass wir in unserer Aufmerksamkeit nur bestimmten Stellen der Verteidigung wie dem nuklearen Abwehrschild nachlassen müssen - schon könnten uns neue Gefahren bedrohen", sagte Putin der Nachrichtenagentur Itar-Tass zufolge. Russland werde weiter konsequent seine Streitkräfte und deren atomare Bewaffnung ausbauen.

bob/dud

17 Nov 2004 17:20

17.11.2004 17:10:35 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> COMEX gold extends rally to new 16-year peak early [nN17386646]

NEW YORK - U.S. gold futures on Wednesday morning popped to new 16-1/4-year highs for the fourth straight session, propelled by a new all-time low in the dollar versus the euro and increased speculative participation in gold as a safe haven investment, dealers said.

By 10:24 a.m. EST, December delivery gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division was up $2.00 at $442.50 an ounce, trading between $439.30 and a new life-of-contract high at $445.40.

- - - -

> COMEX copper soars on dollar woes, strong housing [nN17392840]

NEW YORK - COMEX copper futures charged higher on Wednesday following overseas prices that traders said were bolstered when the dollar tumbled to record lows and copper inventories fell to new low .

Copper added to gains when the dollar was hit even harder by a surge in U.S. consumer prices.

- - - -

> NY March cocoa falls 4 pct on spec fund selling [nN17400031]

NEW YORK - Benchmark cocoa futures in New York fell 4 percent Wednesday amid speculative fund selling on signs of improving supply in top grower Ivory Coast after mob violence halted business last week, traders said.

At 9:27 a.m. EST (1427 GMT), New York Board of Trade's most-active March contract was down $69 or 4.1 percent at $1,616 a tonne after falling through key support at $1,643.

- - - -

> London coffee loses more than 3 pct as NY slides [nL17307561]

LONDON - London coffee futures fell more than three percent on Wednesday as New York extended the previous session's five percent decline, traders said.

LIFFE's January contract was at $655 a tonne, down $23 at 1441 GMT after touching a low of $646.

- - - -

METALS > CVRD says not in talks with Brascan on Noranda [nN17408583]

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil - Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD) said on Wednesday it is not in talks with Brascan Corp. (/BNNa.TO) about acquiring the Canadian company's controlling stake in big copper and zinc producer Noranda Inc.

- - - -

> Alcoa Quebec smelter talks stretch into third day [nN17411399]

MONTREAL - Contract talks at Alcoa Inc.'s strike-bound aluminum smelter at Becancour, Quebec, stretched into a third straight day on Wednesday, the company said.

Negotiators for the company and union talked late into Tuesday night and had resumed discussions on Wednesday morning, a local spokesman for Alcoa said.

- - - -

SOFT COMMODITIES > Ivorian cocoa buyers need cash, transport [nL17642205]

ABIDJAN - Cocoa buyers in Ivory Coast say they lack the cash to buy the beans that are readily available in the bush because some banks remain closed after violent unrest last week.

- - - -

> India's 04/05 sugar production seen doun [nSP238439]

NEW DELHI - India's sugar output is likely to fall to 13 million tonnes in 2004/05 from 13.8 million in the previous year but there will be no shortage because of enough carryover stocks, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said on Wednesday.

- - - -

> German sugar harvest goes well, higher output seen [nL17717423]

HAMBURG - Germany's beet harvest is progressing well in favourable weather and higher sugar production is expected this season, the head of industry association WVZ told Reuters on Wednesday.

The WVZ estimates Germany will produce around 4.1 million tonnes of sugar in 2004/05.

- - - -

GRAINS, OILSEEDS, LIVESTOCK > CBOT soy up on rust, short-covering, corn/wheat tr [nN17414744]

CHICAGO - Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade rallied early Wednesday as concerns about the spread of soy rust disease in the United States sparked funds to cover short positions, traders said.

Corn and wheat futures followed soybeans, with funds also covering shorts in those pits.

- - - -

> Argentina sees 04/05 wheat output at 14 to 15 mln [nN17403225]

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina - Argentina forecasts 2004/05 wheat production at between 14 million and 15 million tonnes, compared to 14.5 million tonnes in the prior growing season, the government said on Wednesday.

- - - -

> India sees 25-27 million tonnes oilseed output [nDL231457]

NEW DELHI - Oilseed output in India, the world's top edible oil importer, is likely to be around 25-27 million tonnes this year because of good sowing conditions, the farm ministry said on Wednesday.

- - - -

> Ukraine harvests a record grain crop in 2004 [nL17638093]

KIEV - Ukraine's grain crop rose to a record 45 million tonnes in 2004 from 20.2 million in 2003, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich said on Wednesday.

17 Nov 2004 18:53

17.11.2004 18:10:20 Gold-Hausse hält an

London, 17. Nov (Reuters) - Gold hat seine Rally am Mittwoch fortgesetzt und ist gestützt vom schwachen Dollar mit 444,60 Dollar per Feinunze wiederum auf ein neues 16-Jahre-Hoch gestiegen. Der Höhenflug dürfte weiter gehen: Ein Händler rechnet noch für diese Woche mit einem Anstieg bis auf 445 Dollar und bis Ende des Jahres vielleicht bis auf 450 Dollar.

Fast rekordhohe Long-Positionen auf dem Future-Markt in New York könnten abgebaut werden, warnte allerdings Goldanalyst James Moore von TheBullionDesk.com. Obwohl er glaube, dass der Aufwärtstrend von Dauer sei, könnte im das Edelmetall im Dezember tiefer notieren, bevor es im neuen Jahr wieder nach oben gehe, so Moore weiter. Doch auch er geht noch für 2004 von einem Anstieg bis auf 450 Dollar aus.

Die gegenwärtige Gold-Hausse wird vor allem auf die sinkende US-Währung zurückgeführt. Das in Dollar faktorierte Edelmetall wird so einerseits für Anleger aus anderen Währungen billiger. Andererseits sichert eine Anlage in Gold Dollar-Vermögen gegen einen Währungsverfall ab.

Während der beiden Ölpreis-Schocks 1973 und 1979 war Gold infolge der Inflation des Dollar bis auf 850 Dollar im Januar 1980 gestiegen.

Im europäischen Handel stand Gold zum Handelsschluss bei 444,25/445,00 nach 439,65/440,40 Dollar am Vortag. Das Londoner Fixing erfolgte am Nachmittag bei 443,45 Dollar und am Vormittag bei 444,50 Dollar. Am Dienstagnachmittag war Gold bei 439,40 Dollar gefixt worden.

In diesen Tagen sollen an einigen Börsen handelbare Gold-Fondsanteile (ETF) in den Handel kommen, was Marktteilnehmer auf einen leichteren Einstieg in Gold durch Kleinanleger hoffen lässt. Goldhändler führen die derzeitige Nachfrage zum Teil auf den Aufbau dieser ETF-Fonds zurück.

Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16.519/16.769 (Vorabend 16.488/16.738) sfr an.

ish/ajs

18 Nov 2004 08:55

18.11.2004 06:57:49 Gold hits $445 a ounce in Asia, focus on euro

(Updates to afternoon)

SINGAPORE, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Gold pushed to a fresh 16-year high of $445 an ounce in Asia on Thursday as the struggling dollar hovered within sight of a record low against the euro, pointing to more gains for bullion in Europe.

A rising euro, making dollar-based gold cheaper for holders of the European currency, could help push gold to $450 an ounce later in the day, dealers said.

Spot gold was quoted at $444.75/$445.50 an ounce at 0500 GMT, edging higher from $444.25/$445.00 in late New York trading on Wednesday.

"I don't think physical demand has anything to do with the price hike. It's purely currency-linked short covering," said a dealer in Hong Kong.

"Gold has a chance to reach $450 in Europe and I think it's well supported at around $442. I don't expect people to lock in profit at $450. They may wait for the price to move up much higher," he said.

Gold at $450 would also be a fresh 16-year high.

In Tokyo, yen-based gold futures are weakening as the dollar slides towards a four-and-half-year low of 103.40 yen against the Japanese currency.

Tokyo's benchmark October gold contract fell six yen per gram to 1,490 yen. The firmer induced profit-taking, dealers said.

The latest dollar weakness follows a market perception nations at an upcoming G20 meeting would tolerate a weaker dollar.

The euro rose to a record high of $1.3045 on Wednesday and was trading around $1.3035 on Thursday. The dollar was trading around 103.98 yen .

Although a weak dollar is boosting gold, some dealers believed slack demand from the jewellery sector could restrict the gains.

Dealers were also worried about a potential wave of gold selling since speculators had heavy bets on New York's COMEX for prices to rise.

At some point, probably in December in time for end-of-year book squaring, those bets would be unwound so speculators could take profits, dealers said.

Spot gold has risen 7.28 percent since the start of the year.

"However, any correction in the price will be seen as a buying opportunity as dealers expect the dollar to keep sliding on perceptions the second Bush administration will tolerate a weakening currency to make U.S. exports more competitive," said N M Rothschild in a report.

Platinum fell to $865/$870 an ounce from $870.50/$875.50 late in New York. Sister metal palladium rose to $221/$226 an ounce from $217/$223.

Silver stood around $7.64/$7.66 an ounce, versus $7.63/$7.66 in the U.S. market.

18 Nov 2004 08:55

18.11.2004 08:37:38 Tokyo gold down on strong yen but trend bullish

TOKYO, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Yen-denominated Tokyo gold futures edged lower on Thursday after sharp gains in the yen against the dollar induced relatively active profit-taking, while spot gold hit a fresh 16-year high.

But the trend for gold futures traded on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) was strong, with plenty of bargain-hunting demand expected due to bullish fundamentals, mainly driven by the bearish dollar.

"Sentiment is clearly bullish, with the dollar-based spot price hitting a 16-year high," said Tatsuo Kageyama, an analyst at Kanetsu Asset Management Co. Ltd.

"Gains in New York are leading the current uptrend but domestic prices are being pressured by the bullish yen."

The benchmark October gold contract closed down 8 yen per gram at 1,488 yen. It had moved in a narrow band of 1,488 to 1,493 yen. Other contracts closed 2 to 8 yen lower.

Spot gold pushed to a fresh 16-year high in Asia as the dollar slumped to a fresh record low against the euro, pointing to more gains for bullion in Europe.

At 0657 GMT, gold was quoted at $445.40/6.15 an ounce from $444.25/5.00 in late New York on Wednesday.

Traders said gold could post further gains should the dollar extend its losses as money from fund operators and investors was increasingly flowing to the precious metal from previously favoured crude oil.

Oil was losing investment attraction and has been struggling for past few weeks.

The benchmark NYMEX light crude oil was around $46.88 in late Asian trade on Thursday compared with a record high of $55.67 per barrel set on Oct. 25.

Gold is expected to be in the spotlight, which could provide support to other precious metals, as long as the dollar stays bearish, traders said.

The euro rose to a new record high versus the dollar on Thursday, on expectations that nations at an upcoming Group of 20 meeting would tolerate a weaker dollar.

The U.S. currency skidded to an all-time low of $1.3065 against the single European currency.

Against the yen, the dollar fell to a 7 1/2-month low of 103.75 yen .

"Gold looks overbought, but funds are simply reluctant to go short now, looking how gold has been performing," said a trader at a Japanese trading house.

Spot gold has risen nearly 5 percent since the start of the month.

Sentiment for platinum continued to be undermined by refiner Johnson Matthey's forecast that supplies of the metal will exceed demand in 2005 for the first time in several years.

Johnson Matthey said in a report released on Tuesday that the world platinum market, short of supply in 2004 by 40,000 ounces, would turn into surplus next year thanks to expanded mine output.

The British refiner also said that platinum was expected to trade between $760 and $880 an ounce over the next six months.

The October TOCOM platinum contract closed down 4 yen per gram at 2,818 yen.

Other contracts closed down 6 to 14 yen.

Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

Closing prices are in yen per gram except for silver, which is in yen per 10 grams:

For open interest details please click

Closing price Turnover (lots)
GOLD 1,488 (down 53,963
SILVER 254.1 (down 0.8) 2,426
PLATINUM 2,818 (down 4) 45,302
PALLADIUM 742 (unchanged) 507

18 Nov 2004 17:12

18.11.2004 17:03:51 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> London gold dips below $440 support on soft euro [nL18563272]

LONDON - Gold fell back sharply from its fifth sucessive 16-1/4 year high on Thursday afternoon in London trading as a softer euro versus the dollar made the metal less attractive for non-U.S. investors.

By 1538 GMT, spot gold was at $440.90/441.60 per troy ounce after hitting a low of $439.65. The euro dropped back to $1.2989 after hitting a record high of $1.3074.

- - - -

> USDA finds 'inconclusive' mad cow test result [nN18490484]

WASHINGTON - First-round screening tests returned "inconclusive" results for mad cow disease from one animal and samples were being submitted for final and more sophisticated analysis, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Thursday.

Results were expected in the next four to seven days. USDA declined to give details on the suspect animal or where it was tested. But officials said the carcass was being held out of processing and did not enter the food or feed supply.

- - - -

> CBOT corn falls early, soymeal climbs on mad cow [nN18492178]

CHICAGO - Chicago Board of Trade corn futures fell while soymeal climbed early Thursday after the USDA reported preliminary tests showed an animal tested positive for mad cow disease, traders said.

Soymeal prices were supported on renewed prospects that meat and bone meal could be further restricted in feed rations, while corn was pressured on ideas of reduced beef demand.

- - - -

> London cocoa bounces, Ivory Coast concerns remain [nL18662209]

LONDON - The London cocoa market rebounded on Thursday from its lowest close in two weeks as some participants judged the previous session's decline excessive, traders said.

- - - -

METALS > Weak dollar boosts LME metals, lead hits new high [nL18450420]

LONDON - Base metals were mostly firmer at the London Metal Exchange (LME) during Thursday's open outcry trade, as renewed weakness in the dollar spurred fund buying, traders said.

Copper was also helped by another stock drawdown, while lead notched up a fresh all-time high in early trade on fund buying, though it later ran into liquidation.

- - - -

> Alcan to begin study on big South Africa smelter [nN18324371]

MONTREAL - Alcan Inc. will begin a feasibility study for the construction of a 660,000 tonne aluminum smelter in Coega, South Africa, the company said on Thursday.

Alcan, the world's No. 2 producer of primary aluminum, said it expects to complete the study by the second quarter of 2005.

- - - -

> Alcoa Quebec smelter talks to continue Thursday [nN18498376]

MONTREAL - Contract talks aimed at ending a more than four-month strike at Alcoa Inc.'s aluminum smelter at Becancour, Quebec were expected to continue for a fourth straight day, the company said on Thursday.

- - - -

SOFT COMMODITIES > Focus of Ivorian transport problems shifts inland [nL18668360]

ABIDJAN - Ivory Coast's ports were operating as normal on Thursday after violent unrest last week but some in the industry said business was subdued for the time of year as transport difficulties persisted inland.

Road blocks following days of anti-French rioting over a week ago and a lack of fuel upcountry were hampering efforts to get cocoa out of the bush, said Albert Konan, manager of the Kavokiva cooperative in the town of Daloa.

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GRAINS, OILSEEDS, LIVESTOCK > French analyst raises EU-25 grain estimate [nL1738386]

PARIS - French analyst Strategie Grains on Thursday raised most of its estimates for the EU-25 grain crops, with the total 2004/2005 crop now seen 1.4 million tonnes higher than last month at 284.5 million.

In its monthly report, the analyst said the rise now reached 24 percent from last season when most European crops were devastated by drought.

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> TABLE-Russia harvests 83.73 mln T grain by Nov 16 [nL18492385]

MOSCOW - Russia had threshed 83.73 million tonnes of grain including maize by Nov. 16 by bunker weight, up from 72.83 by Nov. 18 2003, the Agriculture Ministry said on Thursday.

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> McCain to compensate two dioxin-hit Dutch farms [nL18516469]

AMSTERDAM - Canadian potato products maker McCain said on Thursday it will cover losses of two Dutch farms, where milk had been contaminated with cancer-causing dioxin after feeding cattle with infected McCain-made feed.

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