Global Economic Collapse


    Hallo,


    nö, da wird der Nominalzins doch an die Inflation angepasst. Somit wäre eine Gewinnmaximierung bei einer Deflation nicht gegeben, wenn der Kredit variabel verzinst ist. Bei Fixzinsen sieht das anders aus, aber die gibt es kaum mehr ;)


    best regards
    BAAL

    Und wenn Du meinst es geht nichts mehr, kommt von irgendwo ein Weltkrieg her.

    2 Mal editiert, zuletzt von BAAL ()

    Zitat

    Original von BAAL
    Hallo,


    nö, da wird der Nominalzins doch an die Inflation angepasst. Somit wäre eine Gewinnmaximierung bei einer Deflation nicht gegeben, wenn der Kredit variabel verzinst ist. Bei Fixzinsen sieht das anders aus, aber die gibt es kaum mehr ;)


    best regards
    BAAL


    Wenn der Nominalzins im variablen System an die Inflation angepasst wird, würde das immer zu einer Rendite von 0% führen, eigentlich sogar zu einer negativen Rendite, wenn man einen zeitlichen Verzug zwischen Feststellung der Inflation und Zinsanpassung berücksichtigt. Um eine reale Rendite zu erwirtschaften, muss der Zins über der Inflationsrate liegen


    In einem Deflationsszenario sollte sich das genau umgekehrt abspielen, bedingt durch die negative Korrelation der Fishergleichung. Theoretisch könnte man hier sogar eine negative Nominalverzinsung bekommen.


    Im Endeffekt sollte sich also bei beiden Szenarien der gleiche Realzins einstellen.


    Marty

    Defunct Spy Satellite Falling From Orbit


    By EILEEN SULLIVAN – 3 hours ago


    WASHINGTON (AP) — A large U.S. spy satellite has lost power and propulsion and could hit the Earth in late February or March, government officials said Saturday.


    The satellite, which no longer be controlled, could contain hazardous materials, and it is unknown where on the planet it might come down, they said.


    The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the information is classified as secret.


    http://ap.google.com/article/A…CAV8m2HtJSuPxPNwD8UDPFC80




    Spy satellite loses power, may fall to Earth


    Satellite could contain hazardous materials; U.S. secrets at risk


    U.S. spy sat out of control


    Jan. 26: A 'large' U.S. spy satellite has lost power and propulsion and is expected to fall out of Earth orbit in February or March. MSNBC's Chris Jansing and Patty Culhane have the details.
    MSNBC


    WASHINGTON - A large U.S. spy satellite has lost power and could hit the Earth in late February or March, government officials said Saturday.


    The satellite, which no longer can be controlled, could contain hazardous materials, and it is unknown where on the planet it might come down, they said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the information is classified as secret.


    "Appropriate government agencies are monitoring the situation," said Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council, when asked about the situation after it was disclosed by other officials. "Numerous satellites over the years have come out of orbit and fallen harmlessly. We are looking at potential options to mitigate any possible damage this satellite may cause."


    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22857051/



    UPDATE


    Disabled Spy Satellite Threatens Earth


    By EILEEN SULLIVAN – 1 hour ago


    WASHINGTON (AP) — A large U.S. spy satellite has lost power and could hit the Earth in late February or March, government officials said Saturday.


    The satellite, which no longer can be controlled, could contain hazardous materials, and it is unknown where on the planet it might come down, they said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the information is classified as secret.


    "Appropriate government agencies are monitoring the situation," said Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council, when asked about the situation after it was disclosed by other officials. "Numerous satellites over the years have come out of orbit and fallen harmlessly. We are looking at potential options to mitigate any possible damage this satellite may cause."
    He would not comment on whether it is possible for the satellite to be perhaps shot down by a missile. He said it would be inappropriate to discuss any specifics at this time.
    A senior government official said that lawmakers and other nations are being kept apprised of the situation.
    Such an uncontrolled re-entry could risk exposure of U.S. secrets, said John Pike, a defense and intelligence expert. Spy satellites typically are disposed of through a controlled re-entry into the ocean so that no one else can access the spacecraft, he said.
    Pike also said it's not likely the threat from the satellite could be eliminated by shooting it down with a missile, because that would create debris that would then re-enter the atmosphere and burn up or hit the ground.
    Pike, director of the defense research group GlobalSecurity.org, estimated that the spacecraft weighs about 20,000 pounds and is the size of a small bus. He said the satellite would create 10 times less debris than the Columbia space shuttle crash in 2003.
    As for possible hazardous material in the spacecraft, Pike said it might contain beryllium, a light metal with a high melting point that is used in the defense and aerospace industries.
    Jeffrey Richelson, a senior fellow with the National Security Archive, said the spacecraft likely is a photo reconnaisance satellite. Such eyes in the sky are used to gather visual information from space about adversarial governments and terror groups, including construction at suspected nuclear sites or militant training camps. The satellites also can be used to survey damage from hurricanes, fires and other natural disasters.
    The largest uncontrolled re-entry by a NASA spacecraft was Skylab, the 78-ton abandoned space station that fell from orbit in 1979. Its debris dropped harmlessly into the Indian Ocean and across a remote section of western Australia.
    In 2000, NASA engineers successfully directed a safe de-orbit of the 17-ton Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, using rockets aboard the satellite to bring it down in a remote part of the Pacific Ocean.
    In 2002, officials believe debris from a 7,000-pound science satellite smacked into the Earth's atmosphere and rained down over the Persian Gulf, a few thousand miles from where they first predicted it would plummet.


    Associated Press writers Pamela Hess and Deb Riechmann contributed to this report.

    Mortgage bond insurers 'need $200bn boost'



    America's biggest mortgage bond insurers collectively need a $200 billion (£101 billion) capital injection if they are to maintain their key AAA credit ratings, a figure that dwarfs a plan by New York regulators to put together a capital infusion of up to $15 billion, a leading ratings expert said yesterday.


    http://business.timesonline.co…inance/article3248731.ece




    Holla die Waldfee!

    Crisis grips European hedge funds


    Zitat

    Up to 10 European hedge funds have suspended redemptions after investors clamoured for their cash when the managers made severe losses.


    A London prime broker told The Sunday Times that even before last week’s extreme gyrations, nearly two-thirds of London-based hedge funds had lost between 4% and 10% of their value. A “significant number” had lost much more, he said.

    "Do we want the communist to run the banks or the terrorist? But yah know I'll take anything 'cause we're so desperate."


    Jim Cramer 1/17/08

    Hans Fallada in seinem 1937 erschienen Inflations-Roman "Wolf unter Wölfen":


    "Irgendwo in dieser Stadt stand eine Maschine und erbrach Tag und Nacht Papier über der Stadt. 'Geld' nannten sie es. Sie druckten Zahlen darauf, wunderbare, glatte Zahlen mit vielen Nullen, die immer runder wurden. Und wenn du gearbeitet hast, wenn du dir etwas erspart hast auf deine alten Tage - es ist alles wertlos geworden; Papier, Papier und Dreck."

    Chavez Urges Withdrawals From U.S. Banks


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.portfolio.com/image…08f-b797-7ced1b0b3f42.jpg]


    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez urged his Latin American allies on Saturday to begin withdrawing billions of dollars in international reserves from U.S. banks, warning of a looming U.S. economic crisis.


    Chavez made the suggestion as he hosted a summit aimed at boosting Latin American integration and countering U.S. influence.


    "We should start to bring our reserves here," Chavez said. "Why does that money have to be in the north? ... You can't put all your eggs in one basket."


    To help pool resources within the region, Chavez and other leaders launched a new development bank at the summit of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Nations of Our America, or ALBA.


    The left-leaning regional trade alliance supported by Chavez is intended to offer an alternative, socialist path to integration while snubbing U.S.-backed free-trade deals.


    Chavez noted that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Colombia in recent days, saying "that has to do with this summit."


    "The empire doesn't accept alternatives," Chavez told the gathering, attended by the presidents of Bolivia and Nicaragua, Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage, and other leaders.


    Chavez warned that U.S. "imperialism is entering into a crisis that can affect all of us" and said Latin America "will save itself alone."


    Rice left Colombia on Friday after a trip aimed at reviving a free trade deal that has stalled in the U.S. Congress. She sidestepped an opportunity to confront Chavez, who accused Colombia and the United States of plotting "military aggression" against Venezuela.


    Chavez took up the issue again on Saturday, saying, "I warn the world of the following: The U.S. empire is creating the conditions to generate an armed conflict between Colombia and Venezuela."


    Formerly cordial relations between the two nations have been tense since November, when Colombia's U.S.-allied president, Alvaro Uribe, said Chavez was no longer welcome to continue mediating a hostages-for-prisoners swap with Colombia's leftist rebels.


    Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega backed Chavez in the dispute at the summit, saying "the heating up (of tensions) toward Venezuela is toward the ALBA" as a whole.


    He also joined Chavez in his criticism of U.S.-style capitalism, saying "the dictatorship of global capitalism ... has lost control." Three days earlier, Ortega had shouted "Long live the U.S. government" as he inaugurated an American-financed section of highway in his country.


    The leaders signed a series of accords at the end of the summit pledging cooperation in areas from energy to agriculture, plus a document denouncing "the warlike attitude of the U.S. government and its attacks against our governments."


    A spokeswoman for the U.S. Embassy in Caracas rejected that characterization. "A door is always open to dialogue and cooperation on issues of mutual concern," Robin Holzhauer said.


    Chavez welcomed the Caribbean island of Dominica into the ALBA - an acronym that means "dawn" in Spanish - joining Nicaragua, Bolivia and Cuba.


    Chavez said a new fund created by Venezuela and Iran to support projects in third countries would have links to the ALBA Bank.


    Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


    http://www.portfolio.com/news-…withdrawals-from-us-banks

    Forbes Says U.S. Dollar Policy Amounts to `Zimbabwe Economics'


    Simon Kennedy – Bloomberg January 24, 2008


    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are guilty of "Zimbabwe economics" by failing to step in to support the dollar, said Forbes Inc.'s Chief Executive Officer Steve Forbes.


    Neither the Fed nor the Treasury has bought dollars since August 1995 and last stepped into foreign-exchange markets in September 2000 when they sold U.S. currency to buoy the euro. Paulson has said repeatedly the U.S. favors a "strong dollar" with its value set in free markets.


    "I want to hear that Bernanke and Paulson are going to shore up the dollar," Forbes told reporters at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, today. "Eventually the markets will force them to. If the Fed shored up its value, it would help bring interest rates down."


    The U.S. currency has fallen in five of the past six years, according to the Fed's trade-weighted dollar index. Policy makers cut the target rate for overnight banks loans by three- quarters of a percentage point on Jan. 22 as global stock markets tumbled on concern the fallout from the U.S. subprime- mortgage crisis is spreading.


    The U.S. prefers a "weak" dollar because it helps the nation's exporters, Forbes said. "That's Zimbabwe economics."


    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…d6vDJU7gOg&refer=currency

    Zitat

    A spokeswoman for the U.S. Embassy in Caracas rejected that characterization. "A door is always open to dialogue and cooperation on issues of mutual concern," Robin Holzhauer said.


    Komisch, früher war für südamerikanische Staaten niemals eine "door open", jetzt bietet man den offenen Dialog an. Man spürt in diesen Zeilen förmlich die Angst der USA, dass ihnen die Felle wegschwimmen könnten.

    US-Satellit rast unkontrolliert auf Erde zu


    Ein US-Aufklärungssatellit ist außer Kontrolle geraten und wird auf die Erde stürzen. Die Trümmerteile könnten gefährliche Materialen enthalten, warnen die Experten. Wo der Satellit in die Erdatmosphäre eintritt und einschlagen wird, halten die Regierungsbehörden allerdings geheim.


    Ein außer Kontrolle geratener großer US-Aufklärungssatellit könnte Ende Februar oder im März auf die Erde stürzen, wie aus amerikanischen Regierungskreisen verlautete. Der Satellit verfüge über keine Energie und keinen Antrieb mehr, sagten Gewährsleute in Washington.


    Er könnte gefährliches Material enthalten, und es sei nicht bekannt, wo der künstliche Himmelskörper auf die Erde auftreffen würde, sagten die Informanten, die mit Hinweis auf diese als geheim eingestuften Informationen anonym bleiben wollten.


    Die zuständigen Regierungsbehörden beobachteten die Lage, sagte der Sprecher des Nationalen Sicherheitsrates, Gordon Johndroe. Die Regierung sei bemüht, Schäden, die der Satellit verursachen könnte, abzumildern. In der Vergangenheit seien immer wieder Satelliten außer Kontrolle geraten und ohne Schaden anzurichten abgestürzt, sagte der Sprecher. Johndroe wollte sich nicht dazu äußern, ob die Möglichkeit bestehe, den Satelliten abzuschießen.


    http://www.welt.de/vermischtes…rolliert_auf_Erde_zu.html


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new…/2008/01/27/wsatel127.xml

    Moody’s: They Lied to Us


    DAVOS


    The 2008 Norris award for willingness to be beaten up goes to Raymond McDaniel Jr., the chief executive officer of Moody’s. He came to the World Economic Forum.


    At a panel today, it was pretty genteel, but it was clear that people are unhapoy with the performance of the ratings agencies. They rated as AAA a lot of structured finance products that are no longer worth much.


    Mr. McDonald opened up by admitting that, “In hindsight, it is pretty clear that there was a failure in some key assumptions that were supporting our analytics and our models.”


    But then he passed the buck. One reason for the failure was that the “information quality” given to Moody’s, “both the completelness and veracity, was deteriorating.” Translation: Wall Street lied to us.


    May I suggest Moody’s should release details of where it feels it was misled?


    Mr McDaniel conceded there was another problem. The agencies did not do anything about the deterioration of underwriting standards caused by what is called the “originate to distribute” model, in whcih the bank made the loan intending to quickly package it into securities and sell it off.


    As Guillermo Ortiz, the governor of the Mexican central bank, put it, “There is a problem of misaligned incentves.” There were lots of fees to be had if the loans were made, good loans or bad.


    “One of the gaps that opened was a failure of any party to step into that gap to determine if that asset was a good loan,” Mr. McDaniel said. He reeled off some others that could have stepped into the gap, but conceded the ratings agencies might have done so.


    The ratings agencies are among the leading candidates for the scapegoat of this financial disaster, and it is clear they performed poorly.


    But, Mr. Kielholz of Credit Suisse asked, “What happened to caveal emptor?”


    “There seems to be an entitlement that rating agencies be right,” he said, suggesting that “highly compensated analysts” for institutional investors should have done their own research.


    http://norris.blogs.nytimes.co…5/moodys-they-lied-to-us/

    Ein außer Kontrolle geratener großer US-Aufklärungssatellit könnte Ende Februar oder im März auf die Erde stürzen, wie aus amerikanischen Regierungskreisen verlautete.Er könnte gefährliches Material enthalten,


    Etwas unglaubwürdig die Story - normalerweise wissen die Technker sogar bei Kühlschränken noch nach 50 Jahren was damals verbaut wurde :rolleyes: Ich glaub das ist eine Ente ;)

    Zitat

    Original von freefly
    Ein außer Kontrolle geratener großer US-Aufklärungssatellit könnte Ende Februar oder im März auf die Erde stürzen, wie aus amerikanischen Regierungskreisen verlautete.Er könnte gefährliches Material enthalten,


    Etwas unglaubwürdig die Story - normalerweise wissen die Technker sogar bei Kühlschränken noch nach 50 Jahren was damals verbaut wurde :rolleyes: Ich glaub das ist eine Ente ;)


    Die Ente wäre dann in allen großen europäischen und amerikanischen Magazinen + Internetpräsenzen.


    "As for possible hazardous material in the spacecraft, Pike said it might contain beryllium, a light metal with a high melting point that is used in the defense and aerospace industries."


    Beryllium, Berylliumoxid und Berylliumsalze sind giftig und krebserregend. Beryllium kann zu Haut-, Lungen-, Milz- und Leberschäden führen.


    http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beryllium

    Aus dem Outlook for Major European Banks in 2008 – More Stormy Waters Ahead, December 2007, von Fitch


    "...... Some of the main victims of the crisis
    were German banks, including notably IKB Deutsche Industriebank and Landesbank
    Sachsen, both of which failed and had their Individual ratings lowered to F. Another
    German bank, WestLB AG also had its Individual rating lowered in September 2007
    to D/E from D, partly because of the impact of the credit market crisis and partly
    because of persistently weak profitability, aggravated by trading losses which also
    led to the dismissal of its Chief Executive Officer and head of Risk Management.
    Since the downgrade the bank has announced further substantial losses on
    structured securities, which will result in an overall net loss for the bank for the
    whole year. None of these three banks had their Long]term IDRs downgraded since
    they were all already at their Support Rating Floor. Outside Germany, the only
    financial institutions in Europe to have their ratings lowered directly as a result of
    the financial market turmoil have been the UK’s Northern Rock, the most high]
    profile victim of the crisis to date (its Long]term IDR was downgraded twice from A+
    to A] in August 2007) and the Dutch bank, NIBC Bank (the Long]term IDR of which
    was lowered to A] from A at the beginning of December).

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