Beiträge von Silbertaler

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Die bisher alle zwei Wochen erscheinende Informationen über Silberaktien (in meinen Augen eine der besten) verzögert sich in der letzten Zeit und ist eigentlich schon überfällig. Der letzte Stand ist die Nr. 53 (vom 15 Okt.).


    mein letzter Informationsstand:

    • Jason Hommel hat vor ca. 3 Wochen eine Mail an alle Newsletter-Interessenten verschickt und ganz konkret auf 4 Silberaktien hingewiesen, von denen kurz darauf 2 stark anstiegen (wahrscheinlich auch durch die Information mit ausgelöst).
    • Etwas später gab es eine Information, dass er sich an einem Private Placement beteiligt hat und dafür sehr kurzfristig eine größere Geldmenge benötigte. Zu diesem Zweck hat er auch einige (physische) Silberbarren verkauft (u.a. hatte er auch kritische Anmerkungen zu seinem bullion dealer).


    Bei verschiedenen Silberminen, die er lt. seiner letzten Silberinfo hält, waren in der letzten Zeit auch z.T. größere Verkaufsmengen an einzelnen Tagen zu beobachten. Inwieweit er für das Private Placement evtl. auch sein Depot umgeschichtet / reduziert hat, bleibt abzuwarten. Ich gehe davon aus, bin schon auf seine nächste Information und vor allem auf nähere Information über seine Beteiligung / Ziel der Beteiligung (wahrscheinlich an einer Silberminenaktie) sehr gespannt. Es scheint jedenfalls etwas im Busch zu sein.


    Gruß


    Silbertaler

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    By: Theodore Butler

    When I first picked the title for this article, I had this nagging thought that I had used it before. Sure enough, I looked in the archives and there it was, dated September 2, 2003. I just think I had forgotten about it because I have written about 60 articles since then. Just to make sure I was recycling the title in the proper context, I reread a few of my articles, starting with that one.


    It’s amazing how similar today’s situation is with the situation then. I’m referring, of course, to the market structure, as defined by the COTs. As we were at the time of the original article, we are still in what has been a high-risk zone, with extreme technical fund long positions and dealer short positions in silver (and gold). Also just as we were then, there is no way of knowing for sure how it will be resolved. Will the dealers get overrun (for the first time), or will the funds again fold and liquidate positions at lower prices?


    If it does get resolved in the manner it has always been, then we should also be presented with another "mother" buy point. Of course, it may not play out that way, as the fundamentals in silver are so powerful and compelling that it’s hard to imagine these COMEX paper trading games continuing to manipulate prices. Whether we get that one last sell-off before we explode in price, or we just explode, remains to be seen. You must be prepared for either event. Real, fully paid-for silver is good, no matter what.


    The big December COMEX options expiration has come and gone (today), with no big fireworks. It was somewhat unusual to see so many call options in gold and silver expire in the money, but my best bet at this point is that all it has done is confirm and accentuate the extreme COT position. The resolution of this extreme mismatch between the funds and the dealers will dictate short-term price action. While these positions are open (which they are), it is premature to declare which side, funds or dealers, as the eventual losers or winners. Picture it as a giant poker game in which the pot keeps growing, due to raising and re-raising, but all the cards haven’t been turned over yet. Let’s declare the winner when the last card is turned.


    We know that the usual resolution would be if the tech funds start selling at lower prices in the relative near future. In that case, the dealers get to cover many of their short positions and this gets them "off the hook." But what other resolutions could there be? Well, for instance, events in the cash market could become so tight that some dealers could break rank with the wolf pack and stop selling short or even begin to buy back short positions. Then prices would rise, either explosively if a dealer short-covering panic erupts, or more gradually if the rest of the wolf pack maintains discipline. In either event, the tech funds could eventually close out their long positions at current or higher prices, and would be declared the winners in gold and silver for the first time. My point is that regardless of the outcome, that outcome is not here yet.


    Although I write much about the COTs and the short-term resolutions, I hope everyone recognizes that this is divorced completely from the long-term resolution of the silver situation. One is concerned with short-term gambling, the other with the long-term certainty of the law of supply and demand. The very last thing that a long-term silver investor should do when the COTs suggest potential short-term trouble is to even think of selling. While the temptation may arise to sidestep a temporary downdraft, it is not a temptation to succumb to, except for the most speculative. (By the way, there is nothing wrong with short-term speculation, just don’t let it disrupt long-term commitments). $7.50 silver is cheap on a long-term basis. It’s not the price that’s the potential short-term problem, just the big poker-pot sitting in front of the COMEX paperboys.


    Lately, the markets seem to be dominated by talk and price action of the dollar against other currencies. It is hard to deny the apparent connection between movements in the currency markets and gold and silver. Yet, long-time readers know that I comment little on currency movements. I can accept the notion that if the dollar falls tremendously against other currencies, or in purchasing power, items bought with dollars will tend to "rise" in price. This is an argument that is widespread and logical. And I have previously admitted that it can be a bonus reason for buying silver. While this argument is important, one reason I don’t write about it much, is precisely because it is a widespread argument and I wouldn’t be bringing anything unique to the table by writing about it. I do try to confine my writings to those things I think would be most educational and thought-stimulating.


    Secondly, I don’t write about the dollar and currencies because they are not unique to silver (or gold). Admittedly, currency adjustments can and do impact the value of all commodities, including the metals, precious and base alike, but these adjustments are macroeconomic in nature, and are not peculiar to the specific supply/demand of any commodity. If someone buys any commodity solely because of expected dollar weakness, for instance, he would be better served, in my opinion, to skip the commodity and confine the bet to the currency he thinks will appreciate the most against the dollar.


    Most importantly, I don’t focus on the dollar because to do so would shift the focus from where I feel it should be – on silver’s very special supply/demand fundamentals. This is akin to my reluctance to write about silver in terms of charts and technical analysis (the COTs excepted). My reasoning is as follows; if one allows currency (or chart) considerations to be the main determinant for buying silver, then one must also abide by currency or chart signals to sell silver. That is something I’m not prepared to do. As long as the real supply/demand fundamentals of silver suggest it is severely undervalued, currency and chart signals matter little in the investment decision process.


    Finally, great investor interest has been generated in the new gold ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) introduced for trading on the New York Stock Exchange. For those not familiar with the issue, this is a securitization for gold bullion, or in other words, the creation of an investment vehicle in which gold can be bought and sold in common stock form. I am going to confine my comments as to what it may mean for silver. Because of this new gold ETF, there has been speculation as to whether an ETF will be created for silver.


    On one hand, because silver is cheap and you get so much physical mass for your money, silver would be ideal for an ETF – professional storage combined with the ease of purchase in common stock form. No worries about where to keep it and in a form open to every type of investment account, retirement and custodial included. In fact, an ETF actually makes more sense for silver than gold, inasmuch as storage is much more of a problem in silver. After all, $100,000 worth of gold weighs less than 20 lbs, while $100,000 worth of silver weighs about 1000 lbs.


    But I doubt we will see an ETF for silver soon, or ever, mainly because it would be too disruptive to the price. A legitimate silver ETF, in which real silver was purchased for the fund, would launch the price skyward. In the first three days of the gold ETF on the NYSE, more than 28 million shares (translating into 2.8 million ounces) were outstanding, and the fund reported it held over $1.25 billion worth of gold. Now, there’s no way that a silver fund could match the gold ETF’s first days’ numbers.


    Even if you allowed for a year’s worth of trading of a silver ETF, and not just the first three days as in the case of the gold ETF, there doesn’t appear to be enough real silver in the world to enable anyone to buy $1.25 billion dollars worth, or 168 million ounces. Not unless the price were shockingly higher. Seven years ago, Warren Buffett bought 130 million ounces of silver, causing the price to almost double in six months. Due to the structural deficit, we have about a billion ounces less in world silver inventories than then. Ask yourself, if Buffett’s purchase caused the price to double seven years ago, what would a larger purchase do to the price today?


    This highlights one great difference between gold and silver, namely, that silver is much more price-sensitive to investment flows. More than a billion dollars flowed into gold in the first few days in the gold ETF on a remarkably orderly price basis. If that were attempted in silver, the impact on price would be incalculable, as the entire visible silver world inventory is currently valued at less than a billion dollars. Considering the real facts about silver, common sense would seem to dictate that it’s only a matter of time before serious investment money discovers it. Make sure you get there first.



    -- Posted 23 November, 2004


    Ted Butler mit einem Kommentar über den sehr großen Erfolg der ETF (Anmerkung: von den ETF wurden in den ersten Tagen über 400 Mio. $ verkauft) und spekuliert, ob ein ETF für Silber aufgelegt wird. Dies wird aber eher nicht so wahrscheinlich sein, da das Silberangebot deutlich deutlich niedriger ist und evtl. ETFs in Silber stärker preistreibend auswirken würden und Silber im Vergleich zu Gold auch einen größeren Lagerplatz benötigt (Anmerkung: er geht in seiner Vorstellung davon aus, dass auch tatsächlich in physischer Ware investiert wird).

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Ich finde die Gata/MIDAS-Berichte auch immer interessant, da sie ein sehr gutes Bild vermitteln, was in der Gold-/Silber-Gemeinschaft aktuell los ist.


    Ich habe schon manche sehr interessante Informationen (vor allem über die Goldmanipulationen) erhalten. Aktuelle Themen (z.B. gegenwärtig ETF oder die Auswirkungen der gegenwärtigen COT-Spekulationen) werden hier auch sehr schnell kommuniziert und vor allem z.T. fundiert auf einem Niveau diskutiert, das man lange suchen muß. Natürlich wird auch sehr viel geschrieben, was man nicht immer so braucht.


    Insgesamt bin ich aber dafür, dass die Berichte hier weiter gepostet werden. Schwabenpfeil, herzlichen Dank für Deine Aktivitäten. Da steckt einige Arbeit dahinter.


    Gruß


    Silbertaler

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Ich finde es einen gewaltigen Skandal, was hier mit dem Schuldenerlaß vom Irak wieder passiert ist. Für mein Dafürhalten hätte man dem Irak auch die Schulden einstweilen für ein paar Jahre stunden können.


    Man muß sich nur mal das Szenario in ein paar Jahren ansehen. Der Ölpreis steigt weiter, die Knappheit nimmt eher noch zu und im Irak kehrt wieder Normalität zurück, so dass das Öl wieder normal produziert wird. Dann sitzt Irak auf einer der größten Ölreserven, die es in der Welt momentan gibt und sie verdienen hervorragend.


    Übrigens, Russland wollte/hat man doch auch die Schulden erlassen, oder ? Und jetzt schwimmen sie allmählich in Geld, bauen ihre Devisen-/Goldreserven immer weiter aus und denken daran, ihre Schulden vorzeitig zurückzuzahlen.


    Wie bescheuert müssen denn unsere regierenden Politiker sein, wenn sie nicht einmal einfachste Zusammenhänge erkennen ?


    Gruß


    Silbertaler

  • Chartanalyse US-Dollar

    Markt und Meinung


    Der Euro-Höhenflug ist nach Einschätzung von Experten noch nicht beendet. "Es ist durchaus möglich, daß wir Niveaus von 1,50 Dollar oder auch darüber sehen werden. Genaue Prognosen sind schwierig, weil die Devisenmärkte teilweise dazu tendieren, einen gerechtfertigten Kurs auch zu übertreffen", sagte Deka-Bank-Chefvolkswirt Ulrich Kater am Montag. Der Ökonom erklärte, bei Wechselkursen des Euro gegenüber dem Dollar von über 1,45 oder 1,50 werde "auch die Europäische Zentralbank an das Instrument der Intervention denken". Der Bundesverband deutscher Banken stellte unterdessen in seinem Konjunkturbericht November fest, daß das amerikanische Doppeldefizit - Haushalt und Leistungsbilanz - den Euro nach oben treibt. "Finanziert werden diese Defizite vor allem durch Dollarkäufe der asiatischen Notenbanken - insbesondere der chinesischen und der japanischen Notenbank - die auf diese Weise eine Aufwertung ihrer eigenen Währungen gegenüber dem Dollar verhindern wollen."
    Artikel erschienen in Die Welt, am Di, 23. November 2004

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    By: James Turk, The Freemarket Gold & Money Report

    Letter No. 355


    November 22nd, 2004


    Copyright © 2004 by The Freemarket Gold & Money Report. All rights reserved


    This past Thursday trading began on the NYSE for what is being called a ‘gold ETF’. Here’s how CBSMarketWatch described it just before the launch: “The first exchange-traded fund investing in gold bullion will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, said sources familiar with the situation. Called StreetTracks Gold Shares, the ETF will trade under the symbol ‘GLD’ with the World Gold Council as the sponsor.” After the launch Reuters reported: “The ETF…offers investors the ability to access the gold bullion market, with each share representing one-tenth of an ounce of gold.” [Emphasis added]


    From these and other news reports it would appear that anyone buying this new ETF is buying gold bullion. But a different picture emerges from a careful reading of GLD’s prospectus and accompanying advertising material.


    By way of background, I have been following very closely the development of the gold ETF because I wanted to see if it would have a high level of governance over its bullion assets that was comparable to what my colleagues and I have achieved in GoldMoney. A product launched by the World Gold Council could have some competitive impact. Additionally, GoldMoney is exploring the possibility of creating its own ETF using goldgrams as the underlying asset.


    Last year after analyzing the WGC’s proposed ETF, I concluded that its custodial controls were inadequate. In December 2003 I wrote: “The risks of the WGC’s funds appear too great. Until more questions are answered and/or the fund's structure is changed to eliminate its loose custodial controls, I do not recommend that these funds be purchased.” To understand this conclusion, I recommend reading that article in full.


    Shortly after my article appeared, representatives of the WGC contacted me and threatened me with a lawsuit, unless I retracted the article. Needless to say, I was shocked, because I knew my work to be accurate, based as it was on publicly available information (i.e., the draft prospectus of the proposed US fund and the actual prospectus for similar funds in London and Australia). Also, it was clear from my article that I was focusing upon the importance of owning physical gold bullion, rather than just paper promises to deliver gold. Given that the stated mission of the WGC is to encourage ownership of physical gold bullion and to educate consumers about gold, why were they menacing me? But the threat of litigation does cause one to focus their mind, so I hired a top NYC attorney specializing in SEC law, just in case the WGC followed through on its threats.


    Fortunately, they didn’t. I assume that the WGC in the end recognized my work to be accurate, and that they didn’t have a case. My attorney came to the same conclusion. What’s more, he advised that the WGC was interfering with the work of an analyst, which is something the SEC seriously frowns upon. Remember the hot water Donald Trump got into when he intervened to have a brokerage firm analyst fired after writing a negative story on Trump’s casinos?


    Anyway, because of discussions with my attorney and some additional study, I learned a lot about SEC procedures. And one of the foremost requirements established by the SEC is that mutual funds must have absolute control over their assets.


    In other words, this requirement exists to make sure that retail investors purchasing shares in a mutual fund are in effect buying the assets the fund is supposed to own, and not just some promise to deliver those assets. I understand that this safeguard is required because of past instances in which certain funds never really owned the assets they purported to own, and collapsed with losses to the fund’s shareholders. Thus, by enforcing this requirement, the SEC is doing its job of protecting the ‘little guy’. The conclusion of my December 2003 article was that the WGC’s proposed ETF did not meet this requirement, which I took to be the reason the SEC had not registered at that time the WGC’s proposed fund despite the many months it had been under review.

    Given GLD’s recent launch, I was therefore interested to learn from its prospectus how GLD had been changed to provide the necessary assurances of integrity that the fund’s gold bullion assets really exist. More specifically, I was interested to learn how the WGC had improved the custodial controls so that GLD met the same standard that the SEC applies to other mutual funds. The answer came quickly. It didn’t.


    Even before starting the prospectus, I downloaded the 2-page fact sheet from http://www.streettracksgoldshares.com, and there on the first line was an eye-opener laying out the essential nature of GLD: “Objective: Designed to track the price of gold”.

    Its objective is not to provide investors with the opportunity to own gold bullion by investing in the shares of an ETF. Rather, GLD is designed to track the price of gold. That objective is no different than what is accomplished by a gold futures contract or any of the dozens of numerous gold derivatives available these days. More to the point, futures and derivatives are sold even if the seller does not own the underlying gold bullion needed to deliver on its obligation. They are in practice fractional reserve systems, which allow liabilities for gold to far exceed the quantity of gold owned by the seller of that liability.


    Notwithstanding the numerous news accounts that described GLD as a means of investing in gold bullion, GLD cannot be accused of false advertising. Based just on their 2-page fact sheet, the WGC has by its own description created a security which has been designed to bet on the price of gold, not to enable investors to own physical gold bullion. My subsequent reading of the prospectus confirmed this conclusion because on the face of it, the weaknesses I identified in my December 2003 article have not been corrected. GLD has the same loose custodial controls described in the early draft prospectus.


    To explain this point, the London bullion market operates on a ‘trust-me’ basis. Rather than move gold bars around when they are bought and sold – which is a costly process – the various participants accept the word of their counter-party that the bar they just bought really exists, and that it is safely stored in the counterparty’s vault or the vault of another market participant.


    Thus, for example, when GLD adds a gold bar, there is no assurance that the gold bar really exists unless it is in the vault of the custodian, HSBC. But the prospectus discloses that HSBC uses subcustodians and even sub-subcustodians, and what’s worse, “the Custodian is not liable for the acts or omissions of its subcustodians”. In other words, if the subcustodian does not have the gold, GLD “Shareholders cannot be assured that the Trustee will be able to recover damages from subcustodians...for any losses relating to the safekeeping of gold by such subcustodian”. This means that “Because neither the Trustee nor the Custodian oversees or monitors the activities of subcustodians who may hold the Trust's gold, failure by the subcustodians to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the Trust's gold could result in a loss to the Trust.” To be blunt, these disclosures mean that there is no certainty that the gold supposedly owned by GLD really exists. After all, if there was complete certainty that the gold did exist, the objective of GLD would be to provide investors with the opportunity to own gold bullion by investing in shares of an ETF, rather than its stated objective to just track the price of gold.


    To explain this gold storage risk in greater detail, it is necessary to describe how the London bullion market functions. There are several vaults in London used by the various market participants, but I want to draw attention to only one – the vault owned and operated by the Bank of England. The BoE plays a central role in the operation of the London bullion market, as its vault is actively used as a clearing agent. In other words, the various bullion banks keep storage accounts with the BoE, and here’s an example of how the clearing process works.


    Say, Morgan Bank buys a gold bar from HSBC. Rather than incurring the cost of shipping the bar from HSBC’s vault to Morgan’s, HSBC says that Morgan can have one of HSBC’s bars held on account with the BoE. The BoE makes a bookkeeping entry (‘clearing’ HSBC’s obligation to Morgan), while enabling HSBC and Morgan to save the expense of shipping the bar between different vaults. Morgan now owns the gold bar in the BoE vault that was previously owned by HSBC. The BoE is reputed to store more gold than any other participant in the London bullion market, and here is where the problem arises.


    The BoE does not allow the gold in its vault to be audited. In fact, there is no way of substantiating that the gold stored there is not owned by multiple parties, or for that matter, that the gold supposedly stored there even exists. Like the gold reportedly stored in Ft Knox, there is no verification of its existence by independent (i.e., non-government) auditors.


    In reality is surprisingly not acknowledged by the GLD prospectus, which states: “The Trust’s independent auditors may…visit the Custodian’s premises in connection with their audit of the financial statements of the Trust.” In what appears to be a glaring omission, the prospectus fails to disclose the important risk that the independent auditors will not visit the vaults of the subcustodians and sub-subcustodians, and more to the point, that the BoE does not allow auditors into its vault, even though the prospectus allows for the possibility that all of the fund’s gold may be stored in the BoE.


    Hence, by accepting the loose custodial controls of GLD, the SEC has thrown caution to the wind. It has inexplicably accepted for registration a fund that does not meet the same custodial standards required of other retail-oriented mutual funds. The question is why? For what reason has the SEC established this dangerous precedent with these nebulous custodial arrangements that could be exploited in GLD or in the future by unscrupulous operators who mimic the custodial structure, but have no intention of delivering the underlying assets to the fund? And after sitting on the WGC’s filing for 18 months, why was GLD finally registered and launched this week?


    Readers who are familiar with http://www.GATA.org and its research will no doubt recognize the subtle coincidence of surprising occurrences. For those not familiar with its work, GATA is an informal association of analysts (I am a card-carrying GATA member and proud of it) who contend that the gold price is being managed by central banks. For several years GATA’s analysts have been providing ongoing evidence to support this conclusion.


    For example, in an article published last week, John Brimelow states: “It was interesting to find in Paul Volker’s memoirs the following comments about the aftermath of the successful American effort in 1973 to force a 10% currency revaluation on Europe and a 20% revaluation on Japan: ‘The key was the yen currency of Japan, which had an enormous trade surplus. Appreciating the yen 10% against gold, and devaluing the dollar 10% against gold would mean that the yen would have appreciated by 20% against the dollar. European currencies would remain stable against gold and appreciate 10% against the dollar. On the condition that Japan agreed to revalue the yen, the European countries agreed to the realignment of exchange rates and the U.S. announced that the dollar would be devalued by 10%. By switching the yen to a floating exchange rate, the Japanese currency appreciated, and a sufficient realignment in exchange rates was realized. Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake. Through March, the price of gold rose rapidly, and that knocked the psychological props out from under the dollar.’ One can infer that the mistake of allowing gold an unrestrained voice at times of policy shifts was subsequently guarded against.” In other words, the gold price is being thwarted by active central bank intervention, so that central banks do not repeat the 1973 experience described by Mr. Volcker – or more broadly, today as in 1973, gold and the dollar are competitors, and gold is being managed to make the dollar look better than it really is.


    Therefore, is it just coincidence that British exchequer Gordon Brown was recently trotted out again as the gold price was climbing to raise that old canard about the IMF selling some gold? When his statement had no effect and the gold price continued to rise, it was clear that gold’s price managers needed stronger medicine.


    So on Friday the Banque de France said it would dishoard 500 tonnes of gold over the next five years, a conspicuously timed announcement given the quiet accompanying the 2nd Washington Agreement on Gold after the IMF meeting in early October. As John Brimelow astutely remarked: “Experienced observers of the gold market will have been amused to see the French gold sale announcement, sustaining the long tradition of this type of thing happening during interesting phases of gold price activity.” But in contrast to past anti-gold announcements by central banks, recent jawboning has had little visible effect in talking down the gold price, which continues to rise.


    Thus, jawboning by central banks is no longer enough. And given the ongoing decline in hedging by gold miners, the central banks need new tools in their attempts to suppress the gold price. One of these tools is apparently now being delivered by GLD. Because of its loose custodial controls and the opaque cloak thrown over vaulting at the Bank of England, GLD can deflect demand for physical gold into the paper market. Mineweb.com neatly explained this outcome in a recent article, the title of which makes clear the essential nature of a new security launched in South Africa with WGC support, “Paper gold for Johannesburg”.


    People who might have otherwise bought physical gold coins or bars, but wanted the same thing with more convenience, could be misled into thinking that they are buying physical gold by investing in the shares of GLD. But given GLD’s loose custodial controls, there is no certainty that the investor is actually buying gold bullion in the form of an exchange-traded security. They may instead only be buying paper (i.e., a promise to deliver physical metal, rather than the metal itself) because there is no possibility by independent auditing or other means to substantiate that the gold supposedly owned by GLD and stored in the BoE and other vaults (other than HSBC’s vault) really exists. This mechanism thus provides the central banks managing gold’s price with a tool to divert into paper promises the money coming from investors who otherwise think they are buying physical metal, thereby enabling these central banks to relieve the upward pressure we have been seeing on the gold price. Therefore, if you are intending to buy physical gold bullion, do not buy GLD.


    I would like to thank the many members of the GATA army who supplied information and ideas for this article, particularly Ron Lutka. But I would like to call on the army for another task. A lot of important questions need to be answered.


    We need to find out why the SEC registered GLD. What’s more, why did it happen just as gold’s price managers are starting to lose control of the gold market and need new tools to bolster their efforts to keep a lid on the gold price?


    The SEC has broken with precedent. Like the bucket-shops of the 1920’s that allowed investors to bet on price changes without owning the underlying security, GLD enables investors to bet on the price of gold, without GLD being required to meet the same custodial standards required of other retail-oriented mutual funds. Why? Did central banks force the SEC to register the WGC’s fund? Did the SEC cave-in under central bank pressure, even though GLD’s loose custodial controls conflict with longstanding SEC requirements and establish a dangerous precedent? Why did the SEC register GLD in a week when anti-gold jawboning by central banks wasn’t working, making clear they need new tools to keep a lid on the gold price? And why doesn’t the prospectus disclose the big risk that there are serious restrictions on auditing the gold supposedly owned by the fund?


    The SEC needs to be called ‘on the carpet’. And I call on the GATA army to do it.


    In conclusion, as gold climbs higher, the nefarious scheme to manage its price comes closer to collapsing. When it does, many ill-fated and uninformed investors will come to understand that the promises they hold to deliver gold to them aren’t worth the paper they are printed on. Don’t fall for that trap. Don’t take risks with your bedrock asset – gold. Demand physical bullion. Don’t take paper.


    -- Posted Sunday, November 21 2004


    Contact James Turk: jamesturk@goldmoney.com


    Previous Articles by James Turk


    Damit dürften wohl jetzt sehr berechtigte Zweifel bzgl. der ETF vorhanden sein. So wie es aussieht doch keine physische Ware im Hintergrund, sondern anscheinend wieder mal nur eine gigantische Nebelkerze, die die SEC mitträgt. Ich bleibe weiterhin dabei und werde nicht in ETF investieren.

  • Rohstoffnews

    Branche in Deutschland erreicht Rekordwert - »China kauft alles leer«


    Düsseldorf (dpa/ddp). Während die Hochöfen der deutschen Stahlindustrie unter Hochdruck an der Kapazitätsgrenze produzieren, rechnet die Branche mit einer weiter steigenden Nachfrage. »China kauft mit seinem Riesen-Stahlhunger die Weltrohstoffmärkte leer«, sagte der Präsident der Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl, Dieter Ameling, gestern bei der Branchen-Jahrestagung »Stahl 2004« in Düsseldorf. Bei einer Auslastung von derzeit bis zu 98 Prozent der Kapazitäten sei im kommenden Jahr nicht mit einem Anstieg der deutschen Stahlproduktion zu rechnen, kündigte Ameling an. Ohnehin erreicht die deutsche Stahlproduktion mit 46,5 Millionen Tonnen (plus vier Prozent) einen neuen Rekordwert. Der international angelaufene Ausbau der Förderkapazitäten wird aber voraussichtlich innerhalb der nächsten beiden Jahre zu einer Beruhigung des Rohstoffmarktes führen. »Im Eisenerzbergbau gibt es derzeit gewaltige Investitionen«, stellte Ameling fest. Eisenerz ist der wichtigste Rohstoff für die Stahlherstellung. Auch beim Koks, dessen Preise sich zuletzt vervierfacht haben, sieht Ameling mittelfristig eine Entspannung. So würden in China derzeit 30 neue Kokereien gebaut. Beim Schrott, dem zweitwichtigsten Rohstoff für die Stahlindustrie, rechnet Ameling dagegen »auf Dauer« mit Engpässen.


    Quelle: Passauer Neue Presse, 19.11.

  • Lupos Schmuddelecke

    Bei PatroneLupo gehört das Beleidigen zum System und es ist auch nicht das erste Mal, dass er über das Ziel hinausschießt.


    Es gibt halt in jedem Forum einen gewissen Prozentsatz von Querulanten / Quertreiber / Provozierer und er gehört dazu. Wenig konstruktives beitragen, aber dafür umso mehr andere beleidigen, ständig stänkern und eine schlechte Stimmung verbreiten. Man muß nur mal seine Beiträge ansehen und kann dann mit der Lupe diejenigen suchen, wo er etwas konstruktives beitrug.

  • First Majestic Silver Corp./ FR,AG (TSX,NYSE)

    Press Release Source: First Majestic Resource Corp.


    Thursday November 18, 2:21 pm ET
    TSX Venture Exchange - FR Pink Sheets - FMJRF


    VANCOUVER, Nov. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - The Company is pleased to announce that it has signed a Letter Agreement with Exploraciones El Rey, S. A. de C.V. and B. J. Kennemur for the purchase of the Dios Padre Silver Mine located in the Eastern Sierra Madre Mountain range about midway between Hermosillo and Chihuahua in east central Sonora Mexico. The purchase includes all properties, assets and equipment and all mining concessions consisting of 285 hectares.


    The previous and or historic reserve and resource estimates for the Dios Padre Mine vary significantly due to the nature of the work completed and the availability and access to underground sections of the mine. The reader is cautioned that the estimation does not conform to National Instrument 43-101 requirements for reporting reserves and resources. The Company is not treating these historic or previous estimates as current resources. These resource estimates should not be relied upon until they have been verified by the Company's final due diligence program and reviewed by the Company's 'Qualified Person'. As stated in the most recent report known by the Company, dated December 2002, published by David A. Bending, M.Sc., P.Geo of Reno, Nevada; using a conservative resource model focusing on resources in the accessible upper levels of the mine, 3,500,000 tonnes grading 465 g/t containing 57,211,000 ounces of silver has been estimated which appears to be amenable to open pit mining. It also appears by reviewing this and other reports on the Dios Padre Silver Mine the ore responds well to conventional milling and flotation. The on-sight mill appears to have yielded historic recoveries of up to 87% silver.


    The Company has agreed to pay a purchase price of US$6,500,000 for the Dios Padre Silver Mine payable over a period of thirty six months. In addition, the Company has agreed to issue 500,000 common shares to the vendors. A final due-diligence program will commence immediately and is expected to be completed within six months. All the legal formalities and formal documentation is anticipated to be completed within the same time frame. An initial payment of US$300,000 has been paid. The payment schedule is as follows; Upon completion of final due-diligence and regulatory approvals, closing will take place and a payment of US$450,000 and issuance of 500,000 common shares will be paid; 6th month anniversary US$500,000; 12th month anniversary US$500,000; 18th month anniversary US$500,000; 24th anniversary US$1,000,000; 30th month anniversary US$1,250,000; and on the 36th a final payment of US$2,000,000. In addition, the Company has agreed to issue to the vendors an additional 500,000 common shares if an independent technical report from a qualified international recognized engineering or geological consulting firm confirms that the proven, probable or indicated reserves contained within the Dios Padre concessions exceeds 50,000,000 ounces of silver.


    The Dios Padre is a high grade epithermal silver-lead deposit with limited production data. Reports supplied to the Company from the vendor state mining commenced in the 17th century and continued very intermittently from 1860 to 1910, 1923, 1946 to 1947, and 1962 to 1966. Some estimates of tonnage and grade mined during these periods has been made, however, collectively it is difficult to summarize total ore and grade mined to date. In addition to the main Dios Padre claim, this agreement covers two additional contiguous claims that show good potential for high grade disseminated and vein deposits of silver.


    The Dios Padre Silver Mine can be reached via a 25 km gravel road north of highway 16 which is 220 km west of Hermosillo. The mine is located outside the small town of Real de La Trinidad.


    Management is very excited by this opportunity to acquire an asset of this potential size and thus will work diligently to close this transaction in a timely manner. The Company's objective is to proceed as rapidly as possible in order to bring the Dios Padre into production.


    The purchase of the Dios Padre Silver Mine is subject to completion of satisfactory due-diligence, receipt of any necessary regulatory approvals and formal purchase documentation.


    FIRST MAJESTIC RESOURCE CORP.


    "signed"


    Keith Neumeyer
    President


    Kurzzusammenfassung: First Majestic kauft für 6,5 Mio. Dollar und 500 Tsd. eigenen Aktien Silberressourcen in Höhe von ca. 50 Mio. Unzen - ein Schnäppchen !

  • Macmin Silver Ltd. WKN 897 010 AU000000MMN6 MMN

    Hallo MX150,


    habe inzwischen die Daten gefunden. Als Produktionsbeginn wurde Juni 2005 genannt. Sie sind gerade dabei die wesentliche Infrastruktur auszubauen (u.a. aus einer aktuellen Info von heute zu entnehmen).


    Die Produktion soll bei ca. 3 Mio. Unzen jährlich liegen, allerdings ist der Präsentation nicht zu entnehmen, ob dies sofort oder einer Ausbaustufe entspricht.


    Gruß


    Silbertaler

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    By: James R. Cook, Investment Rarities Inc.

    Last week we had two prospects tell us that they had silver stored with major New York brokerage firms. One man had 50,000 ounces he’d bought from them years ago. The other had 20,000 ounces with another well-known firm. They have both been paying storage fees. However, neither one had any kind of proof that they owned real silver. They could not get a storage receipt with the exact size and weight of the bars. Nor could they get serial numbers for the bars.


    According to silver analyst, Ted Butler, if you can’t get proof that real silver is in your name, then the silver doesn’t exist. "Why wouldn’t they give you the serial numbers if they had the bars?" asks Ted. "It’s easy enough to do that and it’s something that silver buyers who store silver should insist on."


    A few years ago Ted Butler addressed this very issue. "the same careful thinking and analysis that goes into the decision of whether to invest in silver, is often not present in the decision of where and how the silver will be stored. Here, I think many silver investors may be making a big mistake. That mistake is in assuming that just because you may have a piece of paper that reads that you own silver, that there is real silver backing that piece of paper. In fact, I would assert that the vast majority of silver pieces of paper, such as foreign bank silver certificates, pool accounts and all leveraged contracts have no real silver behind them. How could they? No one can provide evidence of more than 150 million ounces of verified silver bullion in the world, yet we have billions of ounces of silver promised by various pieces of paper…..


    What they have been doing, issuing and letting their silver certificates remain unbacked by real silver, is an immensely profitable business. For twenty years, or more, by not having to go out and buy and store real silver whenever a customer buys a silver certificate, the foreign bankers have been printing profits for themselves. Their customers give them cash upfront, and not only do these banks have full use of that cash, they do not have to pay any interest on that cash, and get this - they charge storage fees, for silver that doesn't exist. It's better than stealing, because if you just stole the money from someone, you wouldn't get to charge additional storage fees. It's a racket.


    Now, I have surmised that there may be a billion ounces of silver involved in these certificates, but I think the figure may be much, much more. Here's my reasoning - while a billion ounces of silver may be a lot of silver, it sure isn't a lot of money. Five billion dollars, over twenty years and all the banks that are doing this is peanuts. One man, Warren Buffett, bought almost a billion dollars worth of silver, by himself (of course, he couldn't get full delivery when it came down to it). I personally witnessed one transaction recently, where one entity bought 10 million (paper certificate) ounces from a major Swiss bank. You don't think, over the span of 20 years and the hundreds, or thousands, of banks involved in this silver certificate scam, that there hasn't been 100 others like this entity? What's five billion dollars, spread over hundreds, if not thousands of banks worldwide?



    There are two things that should come to every silver investor's mind. One, is there silver behind my certificate? There most likely is, if you a have a certificate that spells out the serial numbers on the bars, or a specific description of the silver held (bags of coins for instance). There probably is, if the storage function is separate and distinct from the dealer selling you the silver. There probably is, if it's registered in your name and not the name of your dealer. If you have all three, no sweat. But, if you hold a certificate where the silver is not described specifically, or is unallocated form, or is in a pool account, or there are no storage charges, you would be wise to assume the silver doesn't exist. That doesn't mean you will automatically lose, when silver takes off, but it becomes a question then of the credit quality of the entity you are doing business with, which is a very different analysis than the merits of silver. You would then be betting upon the financial viability of a dealer whose books you have not analyzed. Appearances can be deceptive. Remember, a few years ago, the then largest silver refiner in the world, Handy and Harman Refining, suddenly went bankrupt and all silver pool owners and depositors were left in the cold. Also, there may be small print wording in these unbacked silver certificates that may prevent you from getting your silver in physical form, or that deny you the true world price at the time you may wish to sell.



    The second thing, concerning silver certificates, that should come to every silver investor's mind, is the market implications that a silver price rise would have on those issuing non-silver backed certificates. This is what I was mainly referring to in my mention that these certificates are a separate and distinct short position. Even if you are not worried that your dealer may renege or go out of business (in the case of a large Swiss bank, for instance), in the event silver rises in price dramatically, the implications for the silver market will be profound. While those who have been issuing these non-backed silver certificates have profited immensely over the decades by having free use of their silver depositors' money, there is a cost to be paid for those profits in the event of a silver price spike. Even if the depositors don't demand their silver, many will want to cash out at high silver prices. The issuing banks will be liable for those profits, and the only way the banks can limit their liability is to offset their suddenly very naked silver exposure, is to buy silver in some form, paper or physical. At some price trigger point, $8, $12, $20, these banks will panic and buy en masse. Ask yourself this - if the silver short sellers that these banks have been for decades, suddenly turn collective buyers at any price, to the tune of hundreds of millions, or billions of ounces - who will be there to sell to them such quantities? Still think $50 or $100 per ounce is unreasonable?



    My advice here is not aimed at only new silver buyers, I am speaking to those who have bought silver already, over the years, with no input from me. My advice for those holding paper silver in questionable form is to get your silver into unquestionable form. Get out of pool accounts and unallocated silver, and into real and allocated silver. Hold your silver in hand or with someone you trust. The additional costs will prove well worth it. Make the switch now, while you can. Don't wait for the price to rise, it may be too late. I can't think of a worse outcome than for someone to have invested in silver for a long time, to be denied a profit when the price rises, because they held the wrong form of stored silver. Please don't let that happen to you."
    - James R. Cook, Investment Rarities Inc.


    -- Posted 17 November, 2004 bei silverseek


    Ein sehr aktueller Artikel zum Thema ETF, der deutlich davon abrät in Gold-/Silberpapier zu investieren, da dahinter vielfach kein physischer Kauf erfolgt. Den Aussagen kann ich mich voll und ganz anschließen.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Germoney,


    über das Thema ETF haben wir schon früher diskutiert. Ich lege jedenfalls hier mein Geld definitiv nicht an.


    Ich habe es nur deshalb gebracht, da die Relation, wieviel physisches Gold dem Markt entzogen werden soll, genannt wurde. Wenn es tatsächlich so erfolgt, aber dies ist Glaubens- und Vertrauenssache.


    Letztendlich ist diese Investition eine Anlage für diejenigen, die meinen damit gegen alle Untiefen gesichert zu sein. Selbst, wenn das Geld tatsächlich in physisches Gold angelegt wird, muß man sich das Steigerungspotenzial in Vergleich zu den Goldminenaktien mal betrachten. Lieber zur Risikominimierung ein gescheiten Goldfond nehmen und am deutlichen Kursanstieg partizipieren als nur alleine von der Preissteigerung von Gold abhängig zu sein.


    Gruß


    Silbertaler

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Der Handel in den so genannten streetTracks Gold Zertifikaten soll in der kommenden Woche an der New Yorker Aktienbörse starten. Dieses Papier ist das amerikanische Pendant zu den Gold Bullion Securities, die bereits seit mehr als einem Jahr erfolgreich an den Börsen in Australien, England und Südafrika platziert sind. Das Besondere daran: die ausgegebenen Zertifikate, die einer zehntel Unze Feingold entsprechen, werden in Form von physischem Gold in den Tresoren großer Banken wie der HSBC in London hinterlegt. Im Unterschied zu den reinen „Papiergoldscheinen“ wird hier die Nachfrage nach der physischen Ware nachhaltig erhöht. Somit tragen diese Instrumente langfristig zu einer besseren Performance des Goldpreises bei. Die Analysten sind sich über die Erfolgsaussichten der streetTracks Gold Zertifikate nicht einig. Die Schätzungen reichen von 50 Tonnen bis zu 250 Tonnen, die innerhalb der ersten 12 Monate in den Banktresoren lagern werden. Sicher ist aber Eines: Sollte es einen enttäuschenden Handelauftakt geben, wird dies kurzfristig negativen Einfluss auf die Goldnotierung nehmen. Wir werden Sie über die Markteinführung in jedem Fall auf dem Laufenden halten.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Auszug:


    Die physische Nachfrage [nach Gold] hat sich gestern deutlich belebt und bescherte pro aurum eines der höchsten Umsatzvolumina der noch jungen Unternehmensgeschichte. Gesucht waren vor allem Goldmünzen 1 Unze Krügerrand und Maple Leaf. Umsatzrenner bei den Goldbarren waren die Gewichtseinheiten 50 Gramm und 100 Gramm.


    Dem Silber erging es nicht besser als dem Gold. Nachdem in Europa am frühen Morgen noch Preise über 7,60 US$ pro Feinunze bezahlt wurden, schwächte sich das weiße Metall im Tagesverlauf deutlich ab. Die Gründe hierbei waren die gleichen, die auch für den Preisrückgang bei Gold verantwortlich waren. Zudem zeigt die neue Statistik der offenen Kontrakte an der Futuresbörse Comex, wie „fondsgetrieben“ die Kursbewegungen der vergangenen Wochen waren. So legte die Longposition der spekulativ orientierten Fonds in der Woche zum 9.November nochmals um 6.974 auf nunmehr 68.107 Kontrakte zu. Somit sitzen die Fonds auf über 340 Mio. Unzen oder umgerechnet 10.592 Tonnen Silber. Nicht auszudenken was passiert, wenn einige Fondsmanager die Nerven verlieren und auf den Verkaufsknopf drücken! Wir haben unsere Bestände angesichts dieser Zahlen weiter abgebaut und beobachten den Markt intensiv. Das Interesse unserer Kunden beschränkte sich auf Silberbarren 1000 Gramm und 5000 Gramm. Der Optimismus der Privatanleger ist nach wie vor ungebrochen. Langfristig sind wir ebenfalls von einer „goldenen Zukunft“ dieses Metalls überzeugt. Kurskorrekturen Richtung 7 US$ pro Feinunze nutzen wir daher zu Rückkäufen.