Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

kevincito

gold hat sich heute kontinuierlich entwickelt.
sprünge solcher art wie beim euro/dollar sind im devisenhandel nicht selten, auch ohne aktuelle marktdaten. unterstützend hat wohl noch gewirkt, dass der euro über das allzeithoch von 1,3005 ging.

kevincito
schon alles probiert, hab bestimmt shcon 1000 bilder hier hochgeladen, doch seit heute gehts nicht mehr, egal welche endung.
kannst du so guit sein und mal probieren obs bei dir auch nicht geht, ansonsten bekomm ich verfolgungsangst, 23 verschwoerungszuckungen, und somit Falten auf der kopfhaut

17 Nov 2004 12:18

17.11.2004 12:17:18 FOKUS 1-Euro klettert auf Rekordhoch über 1,3005 Dollar

Frankfurt, 17. Nov (Reuters) - Angesichts einer anhaltenden negativen Stimmung gegen den US-Dollar ist der Euro am Mittwoch auf ein Rekordhoch geklettert. Die Gemeinschaftswährung überwand den bisherigen Höchststand von 1,3005 Dollar und kletterte zeitweise auf 1,3047 Dollar.

Zudem erklärten Händler den Anstieg mit technischen Faktoren. "Im Markt gibt es eine große Option bei 1,3010 Dollar, die heute Nachmittag fällig wird", sagte ein Händler. "Offenbar haben die Anleger, die diese Marke bislang verteidigt haben, die Nerven verloren." Andere Börsianer äußerten sich ähnlich. Devisenstratege Johan Javeus von der SEB kommentierte den jüngsten Anstieg: "Das ist eine rein technische Bewegung. Es ist schwierig, sich kurzfristig gegen diesen Trend zu stemmen."

Als weiteren unmittelbaren Grund für das neue Euro-Rekordhoch nannten Börsianer den Rutsch des Dollar unter die Marke von 105 Yen. Dieser habe die US-Währung auch zum Euro belastet. Vor diesem Hintergrund bekräftigte der japanische Finanzminister Sadakazu Tanigaki die Bereitschaft seiner Regierung, entschieden gegen rasche Kursbewegungen an den Devisenmärkten vorzugehen. "Heute hat die Bank von Japan aber offenbar noch nicht in den Markt eingegriffen", sagte ein Händler.

G20-TREFFEN WIRFT SCHATTEN VORAUS
Unabhängig davon warteten Anleger gespannt auf das Treffen der G20-Staaten am kommenden Wochenende, da sie mit Kommentaren zu den jüngsten Wechselkursbewegungen rechneten. Börsianer rechnen im Anschluss an die Gespräche der sieben größten Industrienationen (G7) und der wichtigsten Schwellenländer mit steigenden Kursen bei einigen asiatischen Währungen. Dies gelte vor allem für den chinesischen Yuan, der bislang noch an den Dollar gekoppelt ist und als unterbewertet gilt. Dessen Aufwertung würde den Dollar auch zu den übrigen asiatischen Währungen unter Druck setzen.

In diesem Zusammenhang sagte US-Finanzminister John Snow, China mache bei der Flexibilisierung der Wechselkurse Fortschritte. Er wolle der chinesischen Notenbank aber keinen Zeitplan vorgeben.

BÖRSIANER SEHEN VORERST KEIN ENDE DER DOLLAR-TALFAHRT
Für die Zukunft rechnen Börsianer allenfalls mit kleineren Kursrückschlägen für den Euro. Schließlich habe sich am Hauptbelastungsfaktor für den Dollar - dem Zweifel an der Finanzierbarkeit der US-Defizite bei Haushalt und Leistungsbilanz - nichts geändert. "Die nächsten Kursziele sind im Bereich von 1,3050 und dann 1,3150 Dollar anzusiedeln", sagte Analyst Folker Hellmeyer von der Bremer Landesbank.

In diesem Zusammenhang bezeichnete US-Finanzminister Snow die Reduzierung des rekordhohen Haushaltsdefizit als eine Hauptaufgabe für die zweite Amtszeit von US-Präsident George W. Bush. Gleichzeitig rief der Europa zu Wirtschaftsreformen auf, um die Konjunktur diesseits des Atlantik anzukurbeln und dadurch das enorme US-Leistungsbilanzdefizit zu verringern.

ers/leh

© Reuters 2004

bognair
habs mal mit deinem link versucht, das geht bei mir auch nicht weil es wohl keine "normale" bildverknüpfung ist. da sind so serverbefehle drin und du kannst nur "echte" bilder verlinkt reinstellen.
aber wenn du es bei dir vorher als .gif abspeicherst dann sollte es funzen wenn du es manuell hochlädst... dann ist halt das bild logischerweise genau von dem zeitpunkt als du es gespeichert hast, dh der chart wird nicht mehr aktualisiert.

ohh, hab gerade versucht das gif hochzuladen, dabei gabs ne fehlermeldung:
"Es sind Fehler beim Hochladen aufgetreten. Bitte überprüfen Sie Ihre Eingaben."

jetzt bin ich aber auch baff, habe alles richtig gemacht, bild ist nicht zu groß, format stimmt auch... mmhh... vielleicht ist der webspace vom forum erschöpft??

gleiche fehlermeldung bei mir auch....
forum kapazitaeten erschoepft? ooh,...hmmm hab doch keine 1000 bilder hochgeladen...

Die Party geht weiter:

17 Nov 2004 14:32

17.11.2004 14:30:04 TABELLE-US-Verbraucherpreise stärker gestiegen als erwartet

Washington, 17. Nov (Reuters) - Die US-Verbraucherpreise sind im Oktober zum Vormonat saisonbereinigt stärker gestiegen als erwartet. Das US-Arbeitsministerium veröffentlichte am Mittwoch in Washington folgende Daten:

OKT 2004 SEP 2004
VERBRAUCHERPREISE

Monatsveränderungsrate + 0,6 vH + 0,2 vH

Kernrate (ohne Nahrungs- + 0,2 vH + 0,3 vH

mittel und Energie)

ANMERKUNG: Von Reuters befragte Volkswirte hatten im Durchschnitt für die Verbraucherpreise gegenüber dem Vormonat einen Anstieg von 0,4 Prozent erwartet. In der Kernrate hatten sie einen Anstieg von 0,1 Prozent prognostiziert.

fri/dud

hab eben auf n-tv einen vorbericht zur telebörse 21.30 gesehen, mit ca. 5 min über die aktuelle goldhausse und dem hinweis auf ausführlicheres eingehen auf gold und co um 21.30.

laut n-tv spielen die hedgefonds jojo mit gold wie vorher beim öl. man solle sich nicht die finger verbrennen.
ständige hinweise auf frühere blasen und deren ende (die den anlegern noch in schlechter erinnerung gebliebene EMTV wurde wenigstens 5x eingeblendet oder erwähnt) - die gesamtaussage betrug in etwa, dass man diese goldzockerei nicht mitmachen solle.

da schau ich doch lieber fußball 21.30. so wenig sachverstand bei einem börsensender. und dann wundern sie sich, dass keiner die scheiße schaut.

option63

Auf N-TV oder einem anderen Wirtschaftssender auf Sachverstand zu hoffen ist vertane Zeit,da werden nur Nachrichten verkauft, 99% Geblubber.....die dortigen Aussagen sind eigentlich nur als Kontra-Indikator tauglich.....

Viele Grüsse
GC

ein interessanter Artikel von Jason Hommel:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/hommel111604.html

Zwar ziemlich viel drum herum geredet, aber doch mit einigen interessanten Punkten.

@option

sie spielen nicht nur mit Gold jojo sondern auch mit den anderen Börsen. Derzeit glaube ich dass sie Hausse spielen, überall. Könnte eine ähnliche Situation wie März-Okt 2003 geben wo alles steigt.

Der Handel in den so genannten streetTracks Gold Zertifikaten soll in der kommenden Woche an der New Yorker Aktienbörse starten. Dieses Papier ist das amerikanische Pendant zu den Gold Bullion Securities, die bereits seit mehr als einem Jahr erfolgreich an den Börsen in Australien, England und Südafrika platziert sind. Das Besondere daran: die ausgegebenen Zertifikate, die einer zehntel Unze Feingold entsprechen, werden in Form von physischem Gold in den Tresoren großer Banken wie der HSBC in London hinterlegt. Im Unterschied zu den reinen „Papiergoldscheinen“ wird hier die Nachfrage nach der physischen Ware nachhaltig erhöht. Somit tragen diese Instrumente langfristig zu einer besseren Performance des Goldpreises bei. Die Analysten sind sich über die Erfolgsaussichten der streetTracks Gold Zertifikate nicht einig. Die Schätzungen reichen von 50 Tonnen bis zu 250 Tonnen, die innerhalb der ersten 12 Monate in den Banktresoren lagern werden. Sicher ist aber Eines: Sollte es einen enttäuschenden Handelauftakt geben, wird dies kurzfristig negativen Einfluss auf die Goldnotierung nehmen. Wir werden Sie über die Markteinführung in jedem Fall auf dem Laufenden halten.

Silbertaler,

Habe mit dem ETF ein Problem:

Gerade dass HSBC (die alte 'Hongkong and Shanghai Bank') mit von
der Partie ist. Bei mir steht HSBC für :

How Shiny Bullions Came (absent).

Germoney

Habe gerade mal geschaut , wie es als nächstes wohl aussehen wird.
Habe da einige shares (charts) aufgelistet und besonderes Interesse
auf OBV - 'On-Balance-Volume' gelegt.

1. NEM mit OBV
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=NEM,uu[w,a]daolynay[de][pb50!b200!f][iUo14!Lg]&pref=G

2. ABX mit OBV
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ABX,uu[w,a]daolynay[de][pb50!b200!f][iUo14!Lg]&pref=G

3. PDG mit OBV
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=PDG,uu[w,a]daolynay[de][pb50!b200!f][iUo14!Lg]&pref=G

4. GFI mit OBV
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=GFI,uu[w,a]daolynay[de][pb50!b200!f][iUo14!Lg]&pref=G

5. AU mit OBV
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=AU,uu[w,a]daolynay[de][pb50!b200!f][iUo14!Lg]&pref=G

6. KGC mit OBV
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=KGC,uu[w,a]daolynay[de][pb50!b200!f][iUo14!Lg]&pref=G

Sieht in der Summe Gut aus:

Zu Guter Letzt noch den Relativen HUI (' geliehen' von FreightStrainTrain) a la Adam Hamilton:
http://www.freighttrainstrain.…0&%20HUI%20Indicators.htm

Germoney

Germoney,

über das Thema ETF haben wir schon früher diskutiert. Ich lege jedenfalls hier mein Geld definitiv nicht an.

Ich habe es nur deshalb gebracht, da die Relation, wieviel physisches Gold dem Markt entzogen werden soll, genannt wurde. Wenn es tatsächlich so erfolgt, aber dies ist Glaubens- und Vertrauenssache.

Letztendlich ist diese Investition eine Anlage für diejenigen, die meinen damit gegen alle Untiefen gesichert zu sein. Selbst, wenn das Geld tatsächlich in physisches Gold angelegt wird, muß man sich das Steigerungspotenzial in Vergleich zu den Goldminenaktien mal betrachten. Lieber zur Risikominimierung ein gescheiten Goldfond nehmen und am deutlichen Kursanstieg partizipieren als nur alleine von der Preissteigerung von Gold abhängig zu sein.

Gruß

Silbertaler

By: James R. Cook, Investment Rarities Inc.

Last week we had two prospects tell us that they had silver stored with major New York brokerage firms. One man had 50,000 ounces he’d bought from them years ago. The other had 20,000 ounces with another well-known firm. They have both been paying storage fees. However, neither one had any kind of proof that they owned real silver. They could not get a storage receipt with the exact size and weight of the bars. Nor could they get serial numbers for the bars.

According to silver analyst, Ted Butler, if you can’t get proof that real silver is in your name, then the silver doesn’t exist. "Why wouldn’t they give you the serial numbers if they had the bars?" asks Ted. "It’s easy enough to do that and it’s something that silver buyers who store silver should insist on."

A few years ago Ted Butler addressed this very issue. "the same careful thinking and analysis that goes into the decision of whether to invest in silver, is often not present in the decision of where and how the silver will be stored. Here, I think many silver investors may be making a big mistake. That mistake is in assuming that just because you may have a piece of paper that reads that you own silver, that there is real silver backing that piece of paper. In fact, I would assert that the vast majority of silver pieces of paper, such as foreign bank silver certificates, pool accounts and all leveraged contracts have no real silver behind them. How could they? No one can provide evidence of more than 150 million ounces of verified silver bullion in the world, yet we have billions of ounces of silver promised by various pieces of paper…..

What they have been doing, issuing and letting their silver certificates remain unbacked by real silver, is an immensely profitable business. For twenty years, or more, by not having to go out and buy and store real silver whenever a customer buys a silver certificate, the foreign bankers have been printing profits for themselves. Their customers give them cash upfront, and not only do these banks have full use of that cash, they do not have to pay any interest on that cash, and get this - they charge storage fees, for silver that doesn't exist. It's better than stealing, because if you just stole the money from someone, you wouldn't get to charge additional storage fees. It's a racket.

Now, I have surmised that there may be a billion ounces of silver involved in these certificates, but I think the figure may be much, much more. Here's my reasoning - while a billion ounces of silver may be a lot of silver, it sure isn't a lot of money. Five billion dollars, over twenty years and all the banks that are doing this is peanuts. One man, Warren Buffett, bought almost a billion dollars worth of silver, by himself (of course, he couldn't get full delivery when it came down to it). I personally witnessed one transaction recently, where one entity bought 10 million (paper certificate) ounces from a major Swiss bank. You don't think, over the span of 20 years and the hundreds, or thousands, of banks involved in this silver certificate scam, that there hasn't been 100 others like this entity? What's five billion dollars, spread over hundreds, if not thousands of banks worldwide?

There are two things that should come to every silver investor's mind. One, is there silver behind my certificate? There most likely is, if you a have a certificate that spells out the serial numbers on the bars, or a specific description of the silver held (bags of coins for instance). There probably is, if the storage function is separate and distinct from the dealer selling you the silver. There probably is, if it's registered in your name and not the name of your dealer. If you have all three, no sweat. But, if you hold a certificate where the silver is not described specifically, or is unallocated form, or is in a pool account, or there are no storage charges, you would be wise to assume the silver doesn't exist. That doesn't mean you will automatically lose, when silver takes off, but it becomes a question then of the credit quality of the entity you are doing business with, which is a very different analysis than the merits of silver. You would then be betting upon the financial viability of a dealer whose books you have not analyzed. Appearances can be deceptive. Remember, a few years ago, the then largest silver refiner in the world, Handy and Harman Refining, suddenly went bankrupt and all silver pool owners and depositors were left in the cold. Also, there may be small print wording in these unbacked silver certificates that may prevent you from getting your silver in physical form, or that deny you the true world price at the time you may wish to sell.

The second thing, concerning silver certificates, that should come to every silver investor's mind, is the market implications that a silver price rise would have on those issuing non-silver backed certificates. This is what I was mainly referring to in my mention that these certificates are a separate and distinct short position. Even if you are not worried that your dealer may renege or go out of business (in the case of a large Swiss bank, for instance), in the event silver rises in price dramatically, the implications for the silver market will be profound. While those who have been issuing these non-backed silver certificates have profited immensely over the decades by having free use of their silver depositors' money, there is a cost to be paid for those profits in the event of a silver price spike. Even if the depositors don't demand their silver, many will want to cash out at high silver prices. The issuing banks will be liable for those profits, and the only way the banks can limit their liability is to offset their suddenly very naked silver exposure, is to buy silver in some form, paper or physical. At some price trigger point, $8, $12, $20, these banks will panic and buy en masse. Ask yourself this - if the silver short sellers that these banks have been for decades, suddenly turn collective buyers at any price, to the tune of hundreds of millions, or billions of ounces - who will be there to sell to them such quantities? Still think $50 or $100 per ounce is unreasonable?

My advice here is not aimed at only new silver buyers, I am speaking to those who have bought silver already, over the years, with no input from me. My advice for those holding paper silver in questionable form is to get your silver into unquestionable form. Get out of pool accounts and unallocated silver, and into real and allocated silver. Hold your silver in hand or with someone you trust. The additional costs will prove well worth it. Make the switch now, while you can. Don't wait for the price to rise, it may be too late. I can't think of a worse outcome than for someone to have invested in silver for a long time, to be denied a profit when the price rises, because they held the wrong form of stored silver. Please don't let that happen to you."
- James R. Cook, Investment Rarities Inc.

-- Posted 17 November, 2004 bei silverseek

Ein sehr aktueller Artikel zum Thema ETF, der deutlich davon abrät in Gold-/Silberpapier zu investieren, da dahinter vielfach kein physischer Kauf erfolgt. Den Aussagen kann ich mich voll und ganz anschließen.

November 17 – Gold $444.40 up $4.60 – Silver $7.63 up 8 cents

Gold Continues Its Run Higher With Most Observers Clueless

"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists."
Ernest Hemingway

Gold firmed up in Asia as the dollar continued to weaken with the yen blowing through key resistance at 105. It finished the day in the US at 104.02.

The dollar continued to break down closing at 83.34, down .53, with the euro blowing through 130 and ending up at 130.36, up .70.

The blatantly obvious evidence of price-capping continues to grow and is there for all to see – and, of course, for no one to comment on but our camp. Yesterday, gold took off early and then flat-lined the rest of the trading session. Today, gold roared ahead early, fell back, and actually made new highs later on with gold going $444.70 bid. However, the price managers showed up again, not allowing it to even close above the AM Fix of $444.50.

Yesterday, and on countless other times over the past years, MIDAS has made mention that the reporting on the gold market is the worst and least professional of any market in history. The facts reveal that few of the gold market pundits, gold analysts, and beat reporters have any idea what they are talking about. They have only one credo: PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY. Thus, when gold makes a move, they look around for something to justify the move for the day(s).

As bad as the gold market commentary has been over the years, it is actually getting worse as the price rises. The apologists for The Gold Cartel, and those influenced by their public utterances, look for material to spin to the public to justify the price advance and to nullify the importance of the rise – especially since almost NONE of them are bullish, or predicted the move up over the past three to four years. At least they are consistent. The Wall Street bullion bank personnel are supposedly among the smartest folks in the investment world. However, when it comes to gold, they qualify for the nitwit category, or worse, the crookedly influenced category. Take your pick.

The word circulating on the floor and in various establishment quarters is that gold is going up mainly due to enormous buying to fund the new ETFs coming on stream. I have checked around and find this to be one big crock. Why:

*Over the past couple of weeks, and during this phase of the gold move, the price is only reflecting dollar weakness. Gold is not going up in foreign currency terms for the most part. We already know there are huge buyers out there, like the Indians and Chinese. If this run-up was substantially aided by ETF buying, gold would have exploded under these circumstances and risen in all currencies.

*Yes, there surely is some spec/dealer buying ahead of the ETF launch, but I can’t see ETF buying itself affecting the price here in a substantial way. IF any one of the ETF’s is buying and securing physical (even through intermediaries), it would only be prudent if they hedge their buys by SELLING futures. Not buying futures. Would they be buying here and risking a price collapse (one which so many are predicting) – then having to tell their new investors the EFT is underwater right off the bat. Can’t imagine the WGC or Barclays (and their buyers) taking that sort of risk.

*What if the ETFs are delayed for some length of time? Or worse, not approved. What would the buyer do then?

*The ETF flap is coming from Gold Cartel spinmeisters like Andy Smith, who is attributing this price rise to ETF buying and predicting once the launch is underway the gold price will tank. Buy the rumor sell the news kind of thing.

DJ Gold Could Fall In Wake Of Buying For New ETFs - Mitsui

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--The price of gold could fall once the effect of buying associated with the coming launch of two U.S. gold-backed exchange-traded funds subsides, according to a leading analyst with Mitsui Global Precious Metals.

"The elephant tracks of pre-U.S. launch buying are easily detectable all over the place," said Mitsui's Andy Smith in a weekly note, estimating that the funds' sponsors may have already bought as much as 460 tons of physical gold.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly close to agreeing to the launch of the two funds, with the World Gold Council's 'streetTRACKS' Gold Trust expected to be trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "GLD" within days.

The second ETF, from Barclays Global Investors, will be known as the iShares Comex Gold Trust and will trade on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol "IAU". It is expected to be launched soon after 'streetTRACKS'.

Both funds are based on similar products already trading in Australia, the United Kingdom and South Africa. They are designed to give U.S. investors the opportunity to invest in shares backed by actual physical gold, thus providing exposure to the gold price, but without requiring actual custody of the metal, which can sometimes be costly.

The new ETFs are being launched amid strong interest in gold given that the yellow metal has posted a series of successive 16-year highs in recent days. But Smith noted that the fund sponsors themselves have warned in their SEC submissions of a "pre-delivery impact" on prices, suggesting gold may have been driven artificially higher in recent weeks.

For instance, the World Gold Trust explained to investors that "purchasing activity associated with acquiring the gold required for deposit into the Trust...may temporarily increase the market price of gold."

Smith arrived at the 460 tons figure by assuming that both new U.S. funds had, in deciding how much gold to purchase, separately multiplied the amount of gold digested by the British version by five. This multiple accounts for the proportion by which the population of the U.S. exceeds that of the U.K., he said.

The London-listed version, known as Gold Bullion Securities, has to date absorbed 46 tons of gold. Smith surmised that the ETF sponsors have already bought something approaching 460 tons of gold, placed some in Comex warehouses, hedged some or most of their price risk with near-dated put options, and purchased longer dated calls against their hopes of sustained interest in the new funds.

"This physical and call buying would partly explain why gold charged
onward... through a clear U.S. election result (wasn't a stalemate the long gold bet?) and very strong U.S. jobs numbers (enough to pausegold's rampage all this year)," he explained in his report.

But Smith said that if gold begins to fall, the call-related buying might switch to selling. "And, potentially, the 400-plus tons already pre-purchased begins to shrink like an elephant that's seen a mouse. Add this wobbly long to the 716 tons worth of net speculator longs on Comex, futures and options, and Tocom, and you have a stampede not to stand in front of," he warned.

-END-

*Sure the price could correct at any time. However, it won’t be because of the spin the dizzy gold pundits are sending your way. The Gold Cartel is selling and selling to keep the price itself from doing what it should under these circumstances – and that is to explode. Instead they cap each rise, keeping the option volatilities from blowing up and setting off another gold derivatives neutron bomb. They are waiting for the day when the dollar corrects upwards and they solicit the gold locals to help them go after the gold spec longs.

December gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C4

December dollar
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/C4

Anything can happen to the price on a day-to-day basis, however (knock on wood), the MIDAS analysis the past weeks and months has been right on the money. As of this moment, and ironically so, the scenario is actually getting more bullish, more likely gold will be not be smashed into oblivion in the immediate days ahead via a violent correction. Here is why:

*There is stunningly little interest in gold futures by the retail specs. Longs normally on the books on a big move like this are just not there.
*The Café Sentiment Indicator is only a 5.
*The cash market remains very firm.
*No one out there is talking about the ENORMOUS Gold Cartel short position, along with those of other gold shorts such as various producers and option writers.
*The lack of public interest in the smaller gold shares.
*What is going on at the Comex regarding the DEC contract.

OK, let’s go right to the gold open interest which rose a staggering 15,541 contracts to 362,236. Remember when the oohs and ahs surfaced at 300,000+ contracts and MIDAS said the open interest could easily go to 400,000? Not far from that number any more. Has the huge increase been bearish so far? Hardly. Why? The increasingly strong cash market is fouling up the cabal’s raid plans.

Here is the stunner. Yesterday, the Café floor sources thought the DEC open interest could actually rise today. It did. The DEC went up 1809 contracts instead of decreasing SHARPLY. This is unprecedented. With only 8 full trading days left until first notice day, the DEC has 246,982 contracts still open. The December longs are not rolling over into FEB yet. This suggests something BIG is up in the weeks ahead.

There is only something like 5 million ounces, or 50,000 contracts, at the Comex for delivery. Therefore, if 1 out of 5 longs want the gold that is left, it will all be gone. Is that likely? Probably not. However, what is going on here suggests some kind of fireworks ahead. One thing for sure – no one else out there in the public commentary arena is even touching on the subject, which is bullish.

The DEC 440 calls, which expire at the close next Tuesday, are now in the money. In addition to the sizeable 450 calls on the books, there are 8600 460 DEC calls and 5200 480 calls still on the books. It is important to keep in mind that the Comex option positions are only a FRACTION of what is out there on the OTC books.

Gold has been trending up within a defined channel for many months. Today’s move is a BREAKOUT above that channel.

The silver open interest rose 1607 contracts to 124,272, while the DEC lost 1633 contracts to 82,892. This is still very sizeable with so few trading sessions left.

My man Mahendra the seer did it again. He is amazing. He called for $444 gold the middle of last week by yesterday. Got it today. His long-standing call for $448 gold is still on. Once again he blows away the analysis of the Goldman Sachs and Barclays of the world. Their gold market analysis is pitiful. Neither have credibility. Both have been consistently wrong for 3 years.

The CRB soared to 288.84, up 3.20, and made a new multi-year high close. The copper bears continue to go into deeper water. December closed at $1.4105, up 4 cents+. Crude oil rebounded to $46.83 pre barrel, up 73 cents. It won’t be long before the CRB takes out 300.

The John Brimelow Report

Smoking gun found; victim not yet dead

Wednesday, November 17, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.71, PM $4.51, with world gold at $439.65 and $442.70. Comfortably above, and slightly below, legal import point. (This is basis Bombay; the lower local tax cities of Ahmedabad and Jaipur were probably still importers this afternoon.) Once again, the Indian Reserve Bank intervened to bring the rupee back from an appreciably stronger intraday level; the stock market hit another 5 month high, and prospects for further gold-import- facilitating rupee strength look bright.

World gold in India this afternoon was, of course, some $10 above the level of two Indian business days ago. India cannot be counted out of world gold buying yet – so far the country has shown impressive resilience during this rise.

Contrary to the comments of Kamal Naqvi of Barclays Capital this morning, TOCOM was a moderate seller today. On volume of 16,379 Comex equivalent open interest fell 390 NY lots, - Mitsubishi’s data implies a liquidation by the "general public" of some 5.15 tonnes (1656 Comex lots). Yen gold is fairly high, of course, and the prospects of a firmer yen quite inimical to holding leveraged yen gold. (NY yesterday traded 99,742 contracts, a massive 33% above the Comex estimate; open interest leapt 15,672 contracts – a record – to a record 362,467 lots.)

The open interest increase, a staggering 48.7 tonnes, really says all that needs to be said about yesterday’s trading. Extremely strong demand met fanatically dedicated selling of fresh positions – remember, gold traded sideways for 3 ½ hours after 10am, just above $440. If some brave trader was shorting ahead of an ETF let-down, why would such a one not have scaled up to sell short at higher levels?

So it was interesting to find in Paul Volker’s memoirs (being excerpted in the Nikkei Weekly), the following comments about the aftermath of the successful American effort in 1973 to force a 10% currency revaluation on Europe and a 20% revaluation on Japan:

"The key was the yen currency of Japan, which had an enormous trade surplus. Appreciating the yen 10% against gold, and devaluing the dollar 10% against gold would mean that the yen would have appreciated by 20% against the dollar. European currencies would remain stable against gold and appreciate 10% against the dollar… On the condition that Japan agreed to revalue the yen, the European countries agreed to the realignment of exchange rates….the U.S. announced that the dollar would be devalued by 10%. By switching the yen to a floating exchange rate, the Japanese currency appreciated, and a sufficient realignment in exchange rates was realized. Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake.

Through March, the price of gold rose rapidly, and that knocked the psychological props out from under the dollar. (JB emphasis)

In the late 70s, of course, with the IMF gold sales, "Joint Intervention" was above board. Can anyone any longer seriously maintain, looking at this trading data, that covert action is not taking place?

The news is it is not working.

JB

Many kudos to John Brimelow. His reporting and insightful understanding of the gold market has been the key to my own interpretation of what the gold price was going to do these past many months.

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The shocker of the day was the bond market soaring higher on this news:

08:30 Oct. CPI reported 0.6% vs. consensus 0.4%; ex-Food & Energy 0.2% vs. consensus 0.1%
Prior CPI unrevised 0.2%; ex-Food & Energy prior unrevised 0.3%
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The DEC 30-year closed at 113 12/32, up 29/32. Makes no sense. See Dan Norcini and Jesse below on this.

The DOW roared up again, finishing at 10,549, up 62, while the DOG leaped 21 to 2100.

More US economic news:

08:30 Oct. Housing Starts reported 2.027M vs. consensus 1.96M; Building Permits 1.984M vs. consensus 2M
Prior Starts revised to 1.905M from 1.898M; Permits unrevised at 1.998M.
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09:15 Oct. Industrial Production reported 0.7% vs. consensus 0.4%; Cap Use 77.7% vs. consensus 77.4%
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10:31 DOE reports crude oil inventories +800K barrels vs. expectations +1.5M barrels
Gasoline inventories reported (400K) barrels vs. consensus +650K barrels. Distillate inventories reported (1M) barrels vs. consensus +650K barrels.
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10:33 API reports crude oil inventories +3M barrels
Gasoline inventories +126K barrels, while distillate inventories (1.5M) barrels. Dec. WTI crude is holding gains in initial reaction to the DOE and API data.
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