Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Unfunded liabilities in the Social Security and Pension Fund area continue to mount with no solutions in sight. Wait until the stock market is battered. The latest input:

By Mary Williams Walsh
The New York Times
Tuesday, November 16, 2004

The federal agency that insures pension plans said yesterday that its deficit, already at the highest in its history, had doubled in its last fiscal year, to $23.3 billion.

Over a 12-month period, the agency, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., incurred losses of $12.1 billion, according to the agency's audited annual report for fiscal 2004. Much of the loss was a result of pension fund failures in the airline industry.

The agency, created in 1974 to be the federal safety net when pensions fail, has now lost an average of $10 billion a year for the last three years, according to one estimate. The mounting losses come at a time when the agency is responsible for paying the pensions for more than one million people covered by pension plans that failed.

The agency's executive director, Bradley D. Belt, called on Congress yesterday to address the situation quickly, "so the problem doesn't spiral out of control." He said that the Bush administration was preparing a plan for a comprehensive overhaul of the pension system, which it would propose early next year……

-END-

On the real inflation front:

The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Wednesday Nov. 17, 2004 – Issue 3040 "Independent View of the News"

We had the expected Turnaround Tuesday to the downside, which was abetted by a worse than expected PPI and more disappointing economic news.

Fannie Mae warned that it will have to post a $9B after-tax loss of $9 billion as of Q3 if the SEC finds that they have been accounting improperly for derivatives.

Copper had its biggest decline in two weeks due to reported Chinese selling.

PPI soared 1.7% (0.6% exp) in October, the largest increase since January 1990. Energy prices increased 6.8%, the biggest increase since February 2003. Gasoline prices in October surged by 17.3%, the largest increase since June 2000. Home heating oil soared 17.9%, the largest advance since February 2003. Liquified petroleum gas, such as propane, jumped 14.7%.

Many pundits and TV ‘experts’ said the market will discount the PPI because energy prices have been falling recently – the October PPI is old news. Not so fast, the problem is the market has yet to fully realize the full inflation damage. The surging energy, healthcare and other costs that were regularly cited during earnings reporting season are not fully reflected in PPI and CPI. But they soon could be in profits.

Please recall that BLS has energy prices DOWN 9.6% for Q3 in the CPI. Ergo, BLS data still has energy prices lower than June levels. Oil traded mostly between 36.50 and 38.25 in June. Gasoline this month has traded between 1.42 and 1.31. It traded mostly between 106.35 and 100 in June. The Goldman Sachs Industrial Metal Index is still about 15% above its June trading range.

Yesterday’s worse than expected PPI induces serious analysts to lower real GDP, retail sales and earnings forecasts due to higher inflation. By not fully accounting for inflation, economic data is stronger than warranted. Retail sales are an example of the insidiousness of under-reported inflation. Unit volume is often ignored at the sake inflated dollar volume sales. In recent retail sales data, gasoline service stations provide a big boost to the sales numbers.

Other notable prices increases in the October PPI: food prices 1.6% (hurricane influence – veggies +34.3%, fruit +11.3%), construction machinery and equipment 2.7% (biggest jump since 1/80), and light motor truck 2/7%. Intermediate prices were up 0.9% and 0.3% core, but crude prices rose 4.3% and 5.4% core. This implies inflation other than energy. Core crude prices are +28.3% for the past twelve months

Notable declines in the PPI: passenger cars 1.3% and heavy motor trucks 0.7%.

As we have warned for months, market activity, both economically and financially, is characteristic of late cycle action; and is this case it’s an abjectly over-extended cycle.

Recent dollar downside pressure is due to reports that Japan & China will allow the $ to fall. As we mention regularly, Japan normally desires a weaker than warranted yen to facilitate its exports. However, when inflation becomes a problem, they will allow the yen to appreciate versus the dollar.

The US is now exporting inflation via the declining dollar. The remedy for countries importing inflation is a strong currency; however that will crimp economic activity in the current environment.

-END-

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

The latest commentary from Reuters on the bond madness... Check out the section I highlighted in blue.

In the humble opinion of yours truly here, I am convinced that the main fear of the Central Bankers is interest rate related and the subsequent derivative implosion that could easily occur in that market. Bonds are the target therefore and the gold price manipulation is the corollary to that. That is why GATA's work is so important. It reveals just the tip of the iceburg as the extent of the corruption of the financial markets is far greater than even some of the folks who have finally come around to believing that the gold price is rigged even grasp. It is complete and pervasive and at all levels of the major markets.

Remember when the skeptics were bashing us "gold conspiracy nuts" that inflation fears were being hyped back when gold was struggling to get its head over $400. They kept pointing to the gold price and proudly informed us that such fears were misplaced. Now here we are sitting with gold knocking on the door of $450 and still they cannot bring themselves to admitting that inflation is a serious threat. Now they point us to the bond market instead. "See how bonds are rallying - the bond pit is telling us that the inflation fears are overstated". Hey fellas, What happened to gold?

Can anyone see a pattern here? They are losing control of the gold market and have focused on the real threat, rising interest rates.

I thought what took place in the bonds yesterday was ridiculous. what is taking place today is downright obscene. The shorts are being squeezed as I can recognize a short squeeze when I see it. It appears that they are intent on bringing long term yields back down again. My guess is that the current squeeze will run out of steam around 113^28 at the best. We shall see.

Dan

U.S. Treasuries rally, benefit from bund switch

By Wayne Cole
NEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Treasuries prices rallied on Wednesday after core U.S. inflation proved restrained enough to reassure bond bulls that the Federal Reserve could stay measured when raising interest rates.

The benchmark 10-year note climbed 15/32 in price, lowering yields to 4.15 percent from 4.21 percent late Tuesday. The market weathered strong data on U.S. industrial output and housing and a jump in stocks, impressing analysts and discomforting the many bears who had shorted bonds.

"Markets which trade well despite bad news need to be watched," said Peter McTeague, head of U.S. government bond strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital. "It's either technical, denial, or the time of the year where risk is being reduced."

In this case, traders reported a big cross-border shift, with two central banks rumored to have unwound long bund/short Treasury positions to the tune of $12 billion. A well-known U.K.-based hedge fund was also spotted selling German government debt for Treasuries.

Currency considerations were also helping bonds as the dollar's latest slide under 104.00 yen stirred speculation the Bank of Japan would intervene to restrain the yen, much as it did early in the year. Traders assume the bulk of any dollars bought in such intervention would end up in Treasuries.

Overseas central banks, particularly from Asia, have already bought a net $198 billion of Treasuries this year and helped fund over half of the U.S. government's budget deficit.

All this helped the two-year Treasury note rise 3/32 in price, lowering yields to 2.84 percent from 2.89 percent late on Tuesday and an early high of 2.93 percent.

Five-year notes rose 10/32, taking their yield to 3.49 percent from 3.56 percent. The 30-year bond climbed 28/32, lowering yields to 4.85 percent from 4.90 percent.

Treasuries had slipped overnight on fears U.S. consumer price data would show some of the inflationary pressure evident in Tuesday's October producer price report.

But while the overall CPI rose a high 0.6 percent, the core measure, which excludes food and energy, rose a more modest 0.2 percent. That was a relief to bond bulls, who had feared a gain of 0.3 percent or more.

"That the bond market has taken the numbers so well is at least mildly surprising, though arguably the market was braced for an above-consensus outcome after the earlier PPI report," said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4CAST.

The data merely cemented expectations of an interest rate hike at the Fed's December meeting, but helped futures <0#ED:> rally on the view rates might not have to rise so aggressively next year.

Other data out on Wednesday showed industrial output rose 0.7 percent in October, handily beating forecasts of a 0.4 percent gain. Capacity utilization ticked up to 77.7 percent, but remained well below the 81.1 average of the previous 30 years.

"The bond market is holding up in face of the industrial production gain," noted Josh Stiles, senior bond strategist at IDEA Global. "Maybe some people are hoping there might be a big intervention to buy the dollar and that money would go into Treasuries," he said.

"The pressure is growing for some kind of (bond) surrender, but we're not seeing it right now," he added.

-END-

Then Dan again:

You know what is really almost comical Bill - it is watching the market commentary attempting to explain the price action in bonds. this is really becoming a hoot.

When crude oil prices were RISING, it was supposedly BOND BULLISH because rising crude prices were like a tax on consumers draining disposable income and thus hurting consumer spending and slowing down the overall economic growth. Talk was heard of how crude prices would trim GDP.

Now that crude has sold off and moved down some $10.00/bbl FALLING crude prices are also said to be BOND BULLISH since the threat of inflation has been removed! How'da like them apples!

Crude goes up - bond bullish
Crude goes down - bond bullish

I have got one to top that.

My dog has fleas - bond bullish
My dog no longer has fleas - bond bullish

the sun came up in the East today - bond bullish
the sun went down in the West today - bond bullish
the sun was shining today - bond bullish
it was cloudy today - bond bullish

Bill Murphy is a crazy Irishman - bond bullish
Bill Murphy is a genius - bond bullish

Welcome to Wayne's World courtesy of our Central Bankers. Ya gotta love 'em. They make logic an unnecessary and obsolete science. All you parents out there who are spending good money on those private academies where they teach your kiddos logic and reason and how to analyze - stop wasting your money and send them all to Central Banker University where they teach such courses as:

Irrational Analysis 101
Advanced Principles of Irrational Analysis 202
Central Banker Sleight of Hand 303
How to "Wow 'em, Confuse 'em and Befuddle 'em" 404
Principle of speaking out of both sides of one's mouth at the same time - Graduate study program
How to Build Lasting Friendships with Morgan and Sachs - Doctoral Program
Later gator,
Dan

From Jesse to Dan:

Dan,
There is not one doubt in my mind that you are correct. I am even finding the mechanisms how these jokers are doing it.

I am not complacent on gold yet, and will not be shocked by yet another whacking. But in this case the physical market is what is saving us: metal cuts paper.

Here is one hell of a commentary from Mark Gilbert over at Bloomberg. I think we might subtitle it: "Comes the Dawn." Despite all the smoke and mirrors, some of the Europeans are finally 'getting it.' The US is going to try and inflate (devalue) its way out of the current situation. Its about time they figured it out. Talk about a wake up call for the bond vigilantes. That's why the bond shorts are getting hammered as they are today. Maybe we should form a new organization: BATA?

Its a little lengthy but Sean Corrigan sent it my way and said to be sure to read it. As a European, he is shocked and rightfully so. Since we know and understand these jokers, we're not.

-END-

U.S.'s Snow Laughs Off Dollar's Drop to Record: Mark Gilbert

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- ``The history of efforts to impose non- market valuations on currencies is at best unrewarding and checkered,'' was U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow's response today to a question about whether the U.S. might join with other countries in a bid to arrest the dollar's decline.

The currency market quickly parsed Snow's comment, made in London at a briefing on global economies, and came up with its own translation: ``Sell the dollar.''

Down it went, dropping to a record $1.3048 against the euro and slumping to 104.29 against the yen. When Bloomberg reporter Edie Lush told him his comments were driving the dollar lower and his alleged ``strong dollar'' policy wasn't working, Snow chuckled. ``The policy is the policy,'' he said.

Snow, looking scarily like Jack Nicholson in his role as the Joker in the ``Batman'' movie, is laughing all the way to narrower deficits. His lips said, ``No-one ever devalued their way to prosperity.'' His eyes seemed to be saying, ``There's no way I'm bailing out a bunch of cheese-eating surrender monkeys who can't even lick their trade unions into shape.''

The U.S. currency continues to disregard every piece of good news that would typically drive it higher. It ignored yesterday's figures showing U.S. producer prices jumped 1.7 percent last month, their biggest surge in 14 years. It ignored U.S. Treasury figures showing international investors bought a net $63.4 billion of U.S. assets in September, the most since June.

Moving to Higher Ground

And it ignored the latest comment from the Federal Reserve flagging its intention to keep pushing the benchmark U.S. interest rate higher. ``There is certainly more ground to cover,'' Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow told his local chamber of commerce yesterday.

In contrast, there's little prospect of an interest rate increase from the European Central Bank in coming months, with growth slumping to 0.3 percent in the third quarter for the 12 nations that use the euro. The Fed has doubled its overnight target rate to 2 percent this year, so the benchmark rates in the U.S. and Europe are level for now. Even with the prospect of a widening gap that should promise higher returns on dollar deposits, the U.S. currency isn't rallying.

Room to Raise Rates

That's because currency traders are growing more convinced that the Fed is as happy as the U.S. government to watch the dollar drop. ``The issue for the Fed is getting the Fed funds rate back up, so they can cut it again in future if they need to,'' says Steve Major, global head of fixed-income strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. ``A weaker dollar allows them to do that.''

Asked by Heidi Crebo-Rediker of Bear Stearns Cos. how he expected overseas holders of U.S. Treasuries to react to the losses the dollar will inflict on their investments, Snow segued into a long joke, the punch line of which was ``no comment.'' That's not funny when international investors own $1.9 trillion of the $3.8 trillion of marketable U.S. Treasury securities.

So far, the U.S. government has been able to feed its $55 billion-per-month addiction to the foreign capital needed to fund the current-account deficit by relying on overseas purchases of its bonds. Yesterday's figures showed international investors bought $19.2 billion of government debt in September, up from $14.6 billion in the previous month.

The figures also showed that Japan dumped Treasuries for the first month since October 2002, with net sales of $1.5 billion.

A Chorus Line

Maybe Japanese investors have been listening to the chorus of Fed officials warning that U.S. economic policies threaten the health of the Treasury market. Yesterday, it was the turn of Philadelphia Fed President Anthony Santomero to caution that ``the issue of how a cyclically balanced budget will be restored introduces another element of uncertainty in the outlook.''

Tim Bond, the global head of rates strategy at Barclays Capital in London, says it's ``an odd time'' for the Fed to embrace a weaker dollar as a means of slimming the current-account deficit, given worries about the government's enthusiasm for more tax cuts.

``A suspicion lurks that the renewed emphasis on the current account position betrays an attempt to remove the source of temptation -- ultra-cheap foreign financing -- before the politicians manage to enact some truly disastrous policies,'' Bond wrote in a research note yesterday.

With every grin, every shrug of the shoulders, every elusive response to perfectly straightforward questions, Snow told Europe and Japan that a weaker dollar is just fine by him. Strong growth, he said, is what will narrow the U.S. trade gap from last year's record $496.5 billion, and the current account deficit from the $166.2 billion reached in the second quarter.

What he meant was, the U.S. is happily devaluing its way to an improved deficit position.

-END-

Chuck checked in mid-day:

Still not attracting attention especially with the garbage going on in stocks. The middle tier juniors-NG, MFN, WHT, WHT starting to pull out and there is some volume coming in the exploration companies. If a squeeze is coming, we should start to see some strong blips in the metal and SOON. Yesterday we still had more puts than calls on the options-very positive.

I think that the real bull will begin when the market turns down or/and when the dollar stops going down and gold and the shares move up anyway. But it feels right here. Chuck

CEO Nick Ferris of J-Pacific Gold:

Hi Bill,
Its been months since I last checked in. From a standpoint of the juniors exploration companies, not much has changed over that time. Bob's comments in yesterday's Midas are most precise. Many juniors are now trading at prices that are lower than when gold was $340 per ounce. There is virtually no interest in the sector. It is hard to believe that companies that have recently announced significant new discoveries, such as Candente, have not budged in price.

It would be easy to despair and look at this in a negative way. However, gold is breaking out to the upside and making new 16-year highs. The market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish. As we both witnessed at the New Orleans conference, save for James Turk, Doug Casey, John Embry and yourself, almost all the "experts" were looking for a major pull-back in gold and gold shares. There was even some talk of going short precious metals (against the primary trend!). Some of these "experts" even stated that the gold market was getting frothy! (my golden beer has been flat for a while!) Perhaps the best tell-tale of all is that we see the same faces at these investment conferences. This move in gold over that past four years has not attracted a new crowd of investors.

Bill, I firmly believe you are right. We have the greatest bullish set-up of all time and this gold sector presents us all with a once in a lifetime opportunity. Once the masses begin the realize what is going on, we will witness one of the most explosive moves imaginable.

Nick Ferris
J-Pacific Gold Inc.
http://www.jpgold.com/
1-888-236-5200
TSXV Symbol: JPN
OTC BB Symbol: JPNJF

The action in the gold shares remains pitiful. Day after day, investors can’t wait to sell no matter what the bullion price does. The XAU only rose 1.67 to 110.34, while the HUI fell more than 3 off its high to close at 245.13, up only 4.25.

The HUI remains WAY off its high:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

The US stock and bond markets go on their merry way even as the US dollar is routed. Very strange. With every reason in the world for the price of gold to go nuts, it rises, yet is held in check by a corrupt anti-American price-fixing operation headed up by The Gold Cartel.

Something has to give here. What is least expected by most everyone is that the gold price will explode in the days and weeks ahead. Few in the know can imagine The Gold Cartel absorbing that sort of licking, while gold still remains way off the radar screen of the investing public.

It seems to me we are close to a sea change in thinking. The deep-routed problems facing America are not only still there, they are worsening. Denial and Wall Street hype can go only so far. The Grim Reaper is watching the US financial market action these days with bemusement.

Gold’s time to gain the investment spotlight around the world is close at hand. The good news is so few out there believe that it will happen.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

November 16, 2004

The Coming Currency Shock
Declining Superpower Act

By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS

China's currency peg to the US dollar prevents correction of the US trade imbalace and imperils the US dollar's role as reserve currency.

In the post World War II period, the dollar took over the reserve currency role from the British pound, because the supremacy of US manufacturing guaranteed US trade surpluses. The British pound lost its role due to debts of two world wars, loss of empire, a run down industrial base, and socialist attack on UK business.

The reserve currency conveys unique advantages on the favored country. As the reserve currency, the US dollar is guaranteed a high level of demand. Foreign central banks hold their reserves in dollars, and countries are billed in dollars for their oil imports, which requires other countries to buy dollars with their currencies.

As a reserve currency fulfills world needs in addition to the functions of a domestic currency, the favored country can hemorrhage debt for a protracted period on a scale that would promptly wreck any other country's currency.

This advantage is a two-edged sword, because it permits the reserve country to behave irresponsibly by running large trade and budget deficits. When the tide turns against the reserve currency, its exchange value collapses.

The reason for the collapse is the huge stock of reserve currency held by foreigners. When other countries conclude that their hoards of dollars represent claims that the US cannot meet, dollar dumping begins. Financing for US debt dries up; interest rates rise; imported goods become unaffordable and living standards fall.

Flight from the dollar is already underway. During the past two years, the US dollar has declined 52% against the new European currency, the Euro. This decline is striking in view of the sluggish European economy and the fact that many analysts regard the Euro as merely a political currency.

Indeed, the dollar is declining against all currencies that have any international standing: the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, and even against the Japanese yen despite Tokyo's intervention to support the dollar.

Overcome by hubris and superpower delusion, US policymakers are unaware of America's peril. Economists and pundits are equally in the dark.

Economists believe that decline in the dollar's exchange value will correct the US trade deficit by reducing imports and increasing exports. Once upon a time a case could be argued for this logic. But that was a time before US corporations took to outsourcing jobs and locating production for US markets offshore.

US imports of goods and services rise each time a US factory moves offshore or a US job is outsourced. Goods and services produced offshore by US corporations for US customers count as imports and worsen the trade deficit. The US cannot reduce its trade deficit by increasing sales to China of goods made by US firms in China. As Charles McMillion, president of MBG Information Services, concisely summarizes: "Outsourcing is export substitution."

It is amazing that US policymakers and economists do not understand that dollar devaluation is meaningless as long as China keeps its currency pegged to the dollar.

America's greatest trade imbalance is with China. In 2000 the US merchandise trade deficit with China became larger than the chronic US trade deficit with Japan. By 2003 the US trade deficit with China was almost twice as large as the US deficit with Japan: $124 billion versus $66 billion. This year the US trade deficit with China is expected to be $160, a 29% increase from last year.

This imbalance cannot be corrected as long as China maintains the peg. As the dollar falls against the Euro and other currencies, the Chinese currency falls with it, thus maintaining China's advantage over US goods in world markets.

Both the Clinton and Bush administrations are guilty of permitting China to maintain a grossly undervalued currency that sucks productive capacity out of the US. The combination of cheap Chinese labor and an undervalued currency are destroying US middle class living standards.

As America's industrial base erodes, so does its competitiveness and ability to close its trade deficit through exports.

Currency markets cannot correct the undervalued Chinese currency, because China does not permit its currency to be traded and there are insufficient stocks of Chinese currency in foreign hands with which to form a currency market.

Sooner or later the peg will come to an end--perhaps when China fulfills its WTO obligation to let its currency float. When the peg ends, it will deliver a severe shock to US living standards. Suddenly, Chinese manufactured goods--including advanced technology products--on which the US is now dependent will cost much more. Overnight, shopping at Wal-Mart will be like shopping in high-end department stores.

China accounts for a quarter of the US trade deficit and for one-third of the US deficit in manufactured goods, is the second largest source of US imports after Canada, and is America's third largest trading partner as conventionally measured. Despite these facts, the US government does not publish full current account data for China, instead lumping China in with "Other Countries in Asia and Africa." This keeps the magnitude of the problem out of sight.

Canada and Mexico rank as the US's two largest "trading partners" because of double counting in the measure of imports and exports. For example, the full value of auto bodies shipped across the borders to Canada and Mexico for assembly operations are counted as "exports" when they leave the US and as "imports" when they return.

In contrast US "trade" with China involves almost no double counting of component parts.

Recently, Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company declared its intention to close all US plants and to manufacture offshore for US markets. Each time the US loses an industry, America's export potential declines and America's imports rise. This scenario guarantees a rising trade deficit and the end of the dollar's reserve currency role.

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy during 1981-82.

immernoch nicht moeglich hier bilder hochzuladen oder was?
manmnanmann, ausgrechnet jetzt wo Gold ausbricht, der dollar crasht,

gold is im ueberkauften bereich, rsi gefaehrlich hoch bei 70
usd is im ueberverkauftem bereich bei 30

was nu? kleine scharfe korrektur bevors weitergeht auf 480?

aggressive werbung mit yoyo-selbstbewusstsein an chart-banausen :
http://www.silberinfo-forum.de….php?postid=1381#post1381

Zitat

Original von option63
hab eben auf n-tv einen vorbericht zur telebörse 21.30 gesehen, mit ca. 5 min über die aktuelle goldhausse und dem hinweis auf ausführlicheres eingehen auf gold und co um 21.30.

Hat das jemand gesehen?
Ich habe es leider verpasst.

war nichts neues, hedgefonds etc. sind die schuldigen.

immerhin wurde in einem interview angemerkt, dass wir wohl am anfang einer rohstoff/edelmetallhausse stehen.

das die gründe vor allem beim gold zusammenbrechende sozialsysteme und nicht mehr zu kontrollierende verschuldung ist wurde kaum oder gar nicht erwähnt.

ps, eben kam der trailer zur gestrigen sendung. (hedgefonds, blase, einblendung von emtv und haffa etc. - das sind laut n-tv trailer die dinge, die es zu beachten gibt) bloß nicht die finger verbrennen mit der heißen ware gold.

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Just How Precious Will Gold Get?
Demand is high, supply is scarce, and a weak greenback is hoisting its price

Gold is finally getting some respect. Four years ago, when it began a steady upward march, only the hardiest gold bug believed in the glittery metal. But now, after a 75% climb since early 2001, gold is topping $435 an ounce, a level not seen since 1988, and the naysayers have gone to ground. "We're in a secular bull market in commodities," says Frank E. Holmes, chief executive of U.S. Global Investors Inc. (GROW ), a mutual-fund company that's bullish on the metal. "Nobody believed oil could go to $50 a barrel. So why can't gold go to $500 an ounce?"

The fever is so intense that new competitors are vying to grab business from New York and London, traditional centers of the gold trade. Last month, the Chicago Board of Trade began offering standard 100-ounce gold futures contracts. Dubai plans to open a gold & commodity exchange next year.

Certainly, the stars seem aligned for gold. For one, the Bush Administration apparently doesn't mind a steady decline in the dollar to goose U.S. exports. Gold and the dollar traditionally move in opposite directions. The past few years have been no exception: Since early 2002, the greenback has fallen 25% against a basket of other currencies, vs. a 56% rise in gold.

In a market dominated by investors and central banks, an often-forgotten factor is demand by consumers and manufacturers. Just as with many other commodities, the rise of Asia is boosting gold prices as everyone from India's jewelry-bedecked brides to makers of computers and DVDs in China clamor for the metal.

Scarcity is driving prices higher still. Mining companies survived the doldrums after gold's plunge from nearly $900 in 1980 by pruning exploration and closing marginal mines. Even if miners step up investment, says Gregory C. Wilkins, CEO of Toronto's Barrick Gold Corp., it could be years before they dig out major new supplies.

Of course, gold's joy ride won't last indefinitely. Inflation still appears to be under control. Federal Reserve rate hikes in the months ahead could boost the dollar. And demand for gold might slip if global growth eases. Says Mark M. Zandi, chief economist for Economy.com Inc., a consulting firm in West Chester, Pa.: "The bottom line is that gold prices are tilted higher, but they're not going to take off." For now, the world's gold bugs are betting he's wrong.
http://www.businessweek.com/ma…/04_47/b3909141_mz020.htm

Gold Market Update
GOLD - Breakout Confirmed!
Clive Maund
17 November, 2004

With this afternoon's sharp move above $440 we can now be reasonably sure that we are on our way. This is a sufficient margin above $430 to confirm that the breakout is in all probability genuine.

Silver is close to breaking above its top channel line too, which will be an important development.

Those Elliott wavers who were bearish on gold can now go ahead and burn their chart folders.

Clive Maund
Clive.Maund@t-online.de

Clive Maund is an English technical analyst, holding a diploma from the Society of Technical Analysts, Cambridge and living in southern Bavaria, Germany.

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TOTALÜBERWACHUNG DES ZAHLUNGSVERKEHRS

Der geräuschlose Tod des Bankgeheimnisses

Von Thomas Hillenbrand

Am 1. April 2005 löst sich das Bankgeheimnis in Luft auf. Mit einem weitreichenden Gesetz hat Finanzminister Hans Eichel dafür gesorgt, dass Fiskus, Sozialbehörden und Arbeitsämter die finanziellen Verhältnisse jedes Bürgers ausschnüffeln dürfen - ohne Anfangsverdacht, ohne richterliche Erlaubnis und ohne dass die Betroffenen je davon erfahren.

Steuerbescheid: Klandestines Schnüffelsystem ohne Kontrollen
Großbildansicht
DPA
Steuerbescheid: Klandestines Schnüffelsystem ohne Kontrollen
Hamburg - Für Hans Eichel war im vergangenen Jahr schon am 19. Dezember Weihnachten. Kurz vor Heiligabend hatte der Bundestag noch hastig das Gesetz zur Förderung der Steuerehrlichkeit durchgewunken und dem SPD-Politiker die wohl schönste Gabe beschert, die sich ein klammer Finanzminister wünschen kann: Den vollständigen und schrankenlosen Zugriff auf Konto- und Depotinformationen aller deutschen Steuerzahler.

Mit dem beispiellosen Gesetz, das in wenigen Monaten in Kraft tritt, will die rot-grüne Bundesregierung der Steuerhinterziehung endgültig den Garaus machen. Dazu hebelt die Regierung das ohnehin bereits arg durchlöcherte deutsche Bankgeheimnis vollständig aus. Dass bei der Holzhammer-Aktion der Datenschutz und die rechtsstaatliche Verhältnismäßigkeit unter die Räder kommen, nimmt Berlin in Kauf.

Ab April 2005 erhalten die Finanzämter Zugriff auf die Kontodaten aller Bürger. Bei der Frankfurter Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) können sie dann jederzeit abfragen, wer wo Geld liegen hat. Der Abruf offenbart, welche Konten, Wertpapierdepots, Ander- oder Treuhandkonten sowie Verfügungsberechtigungen ein Steuerzahler unterhält. Im Fachjargon wird diese Kontenübersicht als Stammdatensatz bezeichnet.

Das von Eichels Juristen konzipierte Verfahren hätte sich George Orwell kaum besser ausdenken können: Einen konkreten Verdacht oder eine Begründung braucht der Fiskus nicht vorzuweisen. Der Bespitzelte muss zu keinem Zeitpunkt über die Schnüffelaktion informiert werden. Auch die Bank erfährt nichts. Denn alle Institute werden online vom der BaFin angezapft, die in einem Datenpool namens Konten-Evidenz-Zentrale (KEZ) tagesaktuell alle deutschen Kontodaten bereithält.

Beschwerde in Karlsruhe

Das ist ungefähr so, als wenn die Polizei einen Zweitschlüssel zu sämtlichen Wohnungen erhielte - mit der Begründung, jedermann sei mutmaßlich Besitzer von Diebesgut, illegalen Drogen oder Raubkopien. Nirgendwo im westlichen Europa hat der Staat vergleichbare Kompetenzen. Eichels System, schimpft denn auch ein Banker "ist das, was Stasi-Chef Mielke gerne gehabt hätte, sich aber nicht leisten konnte". Der renommierte Steuerrechtsprofessor und Anwalt Gunter Widmaier hält den Schnüffelparagraphen für nicht mit dem Grundgesetz vereinbar: "Das macht den unbescholtenen Bürger kaputt." Der Jurist hat im Auftrag der im Kreis Borken ansässigen Volksbank Raesfeld zwei Verfassungsbeschwerden eingelegt.

Das Verdikt des höchsten deutschen Gerichts erwartet Widmaier Anfang 2005. Das Finanzministerium glaubt indes an die Verfassungsmäßigkeit seines Gesetzes. Schließlich sei der Entwurf von "Hunderten Juristen geprüft" worden, so ein Sprecher. Der damalige Bundesdatenschutzbeauftragte habe die Regelung zudem ausdrücklich begrüßt.

Auch der Norddeutsche Genossenschaftsverband macht gegen den Online-Zugriff mobil. Ein Gutachten, das die Vertretung der Genossenschafts- und Raiffeisenbanken bei dem Hamburger Rechtswissenschaftler Erich Samson in Auftrag gegeben hat, kommt zu dem Schluss, dass die Regelung aus "vielfältigen Gründen als eindeutig verfassungswidrig anzusehen" ist. Dass der Bankkunde zu keinem Zeitpunkt von der Ausspäh-Aktion erfahre, verstoße gegen das Recht auf informationelle Selbstbestimmung. Die von Karlsruhe etwa im Rahmen eines Urteils zur Volkszählung von 1983 aufgestellten Anforderungen für eine Datenerhebung derartigen Umfangs würden "nicht im Ansatz erfüllt". Damals hatte das Gericht entschieden, dass der Staat nicht unverhältnismäßig viele Daten über seine Bürger sammeln darf.

Während der Fiskus ab April eine Liste der Konten (Stammdatensatz) jedes Bürgers anfordern kann, bleibt den Steuerbeamten der schrankenlose Zugriff auf einzelne Kontenbewegungen laut Gesetzestext weiter verwehrt. Um die einsehen zu dürfen, muss ein konkreter Verdacht vorliegen. Kathrin Berberich, Justiziarin des Norddeutschen Genossenschaftsverbandes, rechnet jedoch damit, dass auch diese weiterführenden Informationen nunmehr leicht einsehbar sind. "Die Beamten brauchen einen Verdacht, aber den können sie sich fortan ganz einfach stricken", so Berberich. Der Fiskus müsse nur ein Konto finden, dass nicht in der Steuererklärung auftaucht - das des Kegelclubs zum Beispiel. Schon läge ein Grund vor, alle Kontotransaktionen zu durchleuchten. "Bei solch laxen Anforderungen", schimpft Berberich, "können wir die Daten auch gleich auf die Straße legen".

Schweigen am Main

Anders als die kleineren Institute halten sich Großbanken wie Deutsche Bank Chart zeigen oder Commerzbank Chart zeigen mit Kritik an der Aushöhlung des Bankgeheimnisses auffällig zurück. Denn vordergründig dient das Gesetz schließlich dem Kampf gegen Geldwäscher und Terroristen - nur ungern möchten die Banker den Eindruck erwecken, dass sie bei diesem hehren Ziel mauern. Doch in Wirklichkeit hat Eichels Rundumschlag nichts mit der Jagd auf große Fische zu tun. Steuerfahnder und Bundeskriminalamt können bereits seit 2002 auf die KEZ-Datenbank zugreifen, wenn sie eine schwere Straftat vermuten.

Das Steuerehrlichkeitsgesetz eröffnet diese Möglichkeit nun dem Finanzamt sowie einer Reihe weiterer Behörden, die in der einen oder anderen Weise mit Einkommenssteuer und Lohnzettel zu tun haben. Auch Arbeitsämter, Sozialbehörden, Familienkasse und BaföG-Amt können den Zugriff jederzeit nutzen - auch sie müssen keine Begründung anführen oder die Betroffenen informieren. Jurist Widmaier geht davon aus, dass sich die Ämter ihrer neuen Befugnisse vor allem bei der Durchführung des Hartz-IV-Gesetzes bedienen werden. Empfänger des Arbeitslosengelds II könnten so heimlich überprüft werden, ebenso wie deren Lebenspartner oder Verwandte. Das Gesetz, so Widmaier, "trifft nicht die Reichen, sondern vor allem die kleinen Leute".

Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel mit Geldbörse: Wohlverhalten durch geheimdienstartige Kontrolle erzwingen
DPA
Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel mit Geldbörse: Wohlverhalten durch geheimdienstartige Kontrolle erzwingen
Bei genauerer Betrachtung fällt zudem auf, dass Eichels Novelle handwerklich unsauber formuliert ist - viele Fragen bleiben offen. Unklar ist beispielsweise, wie sich das Gesetz auf Geheimnisträger wie Notare auswirken wird. Letztere unterhalten für ihre Mandanten häufig so genannte Treuhand - oder Anderkonten. Diese werden von den Juristen verwaltet, wirtschaftlich berechtigt ist aber der Mandant. Über die Existenz solcher Konten muss der Notar Stillschweigen bewahren, ansonsten macht er sich strafbar. Diese Vertraulichkeit ist demnächst nicht mehr gewährleistet: Über die KEZ-Abfrage lässt sich problemlos herausfinden, wer bei wem Treuhandkonten unterhält. Der Vertrauensberuf Notar und auch andere Professionen werden ganz nebenbei schwer beschädigt.

Und das alles gratis

Was Finanzminister Hans Eichel ebenfalls freuen dürfte: Die lückenlose Überwachung aller 500 Millionen Konten und Depots kostet den Staat praktisch nichts. Die Kosten für die Online-Schnittstellen zur KEZ-Datenbank müssen die Banken selbst tragen. Und das für die Informationsvergabe zuständige Bundesamt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht wird ebenfalls zu hundert Prozent von den Kreditinstituten finanziert. "Der Bankkunde", so Berbereich, "zahlt seine Überwachung letztlich selbst."

Ja, wirklich erschreckend! Irgendwie fuehle ich mich auch als gesetzestreuer Buerger zunehmend unter Generalverdacht (als Selbstständiger ist man das ja sowieso, wie die letzte Verschärfung der UST-Regelungen zeigte).

Würde mich nicht wundern, wenn immer mehr Deutsche Geld vom Konto abziehen und es in die Schweiz schaffen - oder in Ware anlegen.

Wir bezahlen eine Regierung, die uns legal beraubt (Steuern) und dann auch noch Gesetze schafft, damit sie uns überwachen kann - und auch das bezahlen wir selbst. Wo ist hier eigentlich der Unterschied zwischen Demokratie und Diktatur bzw. Sozialismus?

extrel