Beiträge von DannyOcean

  • Woernies Grabbelkiste.

    1) Stealth - 2) Wall of worry - 3) parabolische Phase


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.abload.de/img/july9edbulltemplaterbzzk.png]



    Im Vergleich nun die Bullenmärkte des Barron's Gold Mining Index (BGMI), Nikkei, Nasdaq und der HUI.
    Die Zahlen bei Nikkei, Nasdaq und HUI zeigen jeweils die P/E Ratio also das KGV an.



    Barron's Gold Mining Index (Vorläufer vom HUI) von Sommber 1958 bis Ende 1980
    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.abload.de/img/july8edbgmi7gakd.png]


    Von 1960 bis 67 konnte der BGMI stark zulegen. Die "wall of worry Phase" dauerte von 1968 bis Ende 72 an. Zu sehen ist, dass Ende 1971, als der Boden ausgebildet wurde, der Markt absolut keinen Fortschritt über die letzten 6 Jahre erzielt hatte. Danach explodierten die Gold- und Silberminenaktien förmlich, sie haben sich im Durchschnitt mehr als ver-4-facht in nicht mal 2 Jahren. Nach einer finalen Korrektur 1974 bis 1976 konnte der Sektor erneut stark ansteigen, und ver-6-fachte sich innnerhalb von 4 Jahren. Leider gibt es keine Daten mehr zu den KGVs der Minen von damals.


    HUI - Amex Gold Bugs - AKTUELL
    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.abload.de/img/july9edhuivml2e.png]


    Interessant zu sehen, dass der HUI in der "wall of worry Phase" stärker war als die anderen Bullenmärkte. Der Minenindex hatte die größte Korrektur, er hatte aber auch den stärksten und schnellsten Rebound. Seit dem ersten Hoch im HUI (März 2008 / 519 Punkte) sind nun 4 Jahre und 4 Monate vergangen. Das letzte Hoch mit 638 Punkten wurde im September 2011 erreicht. S&P 500 und Nasdaq sind nach 4 Jahren Korrektur beide nach oben ausgebrochen, der Nikkei und der Barron's Gold Mining Index brauchten 5 Jahre. Der HUI wäre nun also allmählich reif für einen Ausbruch.


    Für mich ist der Bullenmarkt im HUI weiter intakt. Die Korrektur seit September 2011 hat das Tempo des Bullenzugs gebremst, doch das war auch nötig, denn manche Goldaktien (auch miese!) hatten rechte hohe Bewertungen erreicht. Die Nasdaq mal aussen vor gelassen, hat es bei jedem anderen Bullenmarkt 4 oder 5 Jahre gedauert um nach oben aus zu brechen und ein neues Hoch zu generieren. Die aktuelle Schwäche im HUI ist mehr eine Korrektur der massiven Gewinne aus 2009 und 2010.
    Betrachtet man sich also die Historie der letzten Bullenmärkte, und wiederholt sich die Vergangenheit dann müsste der HUI in den nächsten 6 bis 12 Monaten auf ein neues Hoch ausbrechen. Natürlich können die Minenaktien aber auch noch Monate lang schwach performen, oder aber die untere Trendlinie sogar nochmals berühren.



    Bullenmarkt Nikkei
    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.abload.de/img/july9edjapanhpbkw.png]



    Nasdaq dot.com und NEMAX Bubble
    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.abload.de/img/july9ednasdaq7llvl.png]



    S&P 500 in blau und die KGVs der enthaltenen Unternehmen in rot. (Ähnlicher Bogen wie beim HUI)
    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.abload.de/img/july9edspxe3bfw.png]


    Hier noch die Quelle im Original: http://thedailygold.com/the-go…red-to-past-bull-markets/

  • Alio Gold / ALO (TSX, NYSE)

    ... und Ziel von 100.000 Unzen Gold in 2012 hat weiter Bestand


    July 10, 2012
    Timmins Gold reports record production of 23,203 ounces of gold and 14,453 ounces of silver during Q2 2012


    Vancouver, BC - Timmins Gold Corp. (TSX:TMM, NYSE.A:TGD) reports record gold production of 23,203 gold ounces for its Q2 2012 fiscal quarter ended June 30. Timmins Gold also produced 14,453 ounces of silver during the quarter.


    During Q2 2012 a total of 39,028 ounces of gold were placed on the heap leach pads, compared to 31,150 ounces of gold during the previous quarter (Q1 2012), a 25.3% increase. Gold produced during Q2 2012 reached 23,203 ounces of gold, compared to 21,532 ounces in the previous quarter (Q1 2012), a 7.8% increase. The number of gold ounces placed on the pads is scheduled to increase during the rest of the year as the mine continues its expansion. Timmins Gold maintains its production target of 100,000 ounces of gold during 2012.


    The increased production in Q2 was achieved despite downtime for the calibration of the new larger capacity tertiary crusher. The calibration of the crusher has resulted in a finer crush size of 3/8 of an inch which is designed to maximize recoveries. The gold recovery ratio was 59.45% for the quarter and would have been higher but for the fact that the crusher calibration caused a substantial amount of ounces to be placed on the leach pads towards the end of the quarter and those ounces will not be extracted until Q3. The recovery ratio adopted by the Company is defined as the ratio of gold ounces produced divided by the number of contained gold ounces stacked on the leach pads over that specific period.


    The following are some key production statistics for Q2:




    Komplette Nachricht hier: http://www.timminsgold.com/s/N…s-of-gold-and-14453-ou...

  • St. Andrew Goldfields / SAS (TSX)

    Jul 10, 2012
    SAS Reports Record Second Quarter Production Results, Producing 23,016 Ounces of Gold
    St Andrew Goldfields Ltd. (TSX-SAS) (OTCQX-STADF), ("SAS" or the "Company") ") reports second quarter ("Q2 2012") production of 23,016 ounces of gold from its Holt, Holloway and Hislop mines in the Timmins mining district, north-eastern Ontario, Canada.


    "We are pleased to report another record quarter of production at SAS, on our way to achieving our annual production target", said Jacques Perron, President and CEO of SAS. "Production increased steadily from the first quarter and was in line with our expectations. As underground development progresses at Holt and Holloway, we will open new mining areas that will provide us with the ability to continue to increase our consolidated gold production. "


    Weiter gehts hier: http://www.sasgoldmines.com/s/…Producing-23016-Ounces...



  • Barkerville Gold Mines / BGM, BGMZF (CVE, OTC)

    Und hier nun der Kommentar von Quinton Hennigh


    Let’s just visualize what this deposit would have to look like on the ground. It is an order of magnitude richer per cubic meter than the Timmins Camp in Ontario. To support such a resource, the 1,000 by 300 by 300-meter block of ground at Barkerville’s Cow Mountain would have to host approximately 39 kilometers of Mother Lode type veins, at a density of one 2-meter wide vein spaced every 7.6 meters. This assumes each and every vein is consistently grading 5.28 grams per tonne gold along a 300 meter strike and 300 meter depth. Got it?


    As a geologist, I will steer away from commenting on some corporate anomalies at Barkerville such as the recent resignation of a couple and the very short tenure (45 days) of a CEO appointed in early March.


    I do not have the luxury of having the final NI43-101 report supporting this resource in hand, so my initial review comes from the June 29, 2012 news release and other publically available information from the company’s website and SEDAR. Having reviewed these over the weekend, I would like to address several technical red flags I see around the reported resource at Cow Mountain.


    1) This resource is a quantum leap in size and grade over the last resource for the Cariboo Gold Project published by Giroux (2006) which, at a 0.01 oz per ton cut-off, included an indicated resource of 479,504 oz gold at a grade of 0.046 oz per ton gold and and inferred resource of 112,992 oz gold at a grade of 0.033 oz per ton gold. Such growth over such a short time would be extraordinary, especially the increase in grade.
    2) All of the resource at Cow Mountain is classified as indicated and none is classified as inferred. It is exceptional to see a resource, especially one of this magnitude, display this high of certainty.
    3) The news release mentions that if a block falls within the search ellipse of one drill hole, it is classified as “ore.” Most resource calculations require more stringent criteria for resource blocks to be classified as indicated.
    4) From a drill plan map available on Barkerville’s website, I calculate there have been 238 surface drill holes completed at Cow Mountain between 2007 and 2011. In the news release, there is a mention of 2,638 drill holes totaling 145,600 meters, mostly historic, used for calculating this resource. Although results from 2007-2011 drill holes are available in recent news releases and the NI43-101 update report from 2009, data from the vast number of historic holes is not readily available. This lack of transparency is disturbing.
    5) There are all of seven cross sections showing drill intercepts on the company’s website. Text displayed on these sections is painfully hard to read due to the very small font size used. Gold intercepts on these sections as well as in recent news releases are mostly narrow, typically no more than a few meters, and of highly variable grades ranging from less than one gram per tonne gold up to rare intercept grading >100 grams per tonne gold. On the sections, no attempt has been made to connect veins from one drill hole to the next. A full set of cross sections like those described as having been employed by the resource modeler in the news release are not available on Barkerville’s website. This makes a critique of the news release’s assertions nearly impossible.
    6) A review of recent news releases indicates some drill holes have occasionally intersect narrow, very high grade veins. Mesothermal lode gold systems such as Cariboo commonly display such “nuggety” gold. What is disturbing is that the company has employed extreme grade smearing utilizing these high grade spikes. For example, on December 12, 2011, the company reported an intercept of 62.3 meters at 14.2 grams per tonne gold in hole CM11-102. Within this are two intervals (veins), 0.9 meters at 858.1 grams per tonne gold and 0.7 meters at 84.6 grams per tonne gold. I calculate these smaller intercepts contribute 95% of the gold to the longer intercept, yet represent only 2.5% of its length. Although these high grade intercepts are intriguing, one look at the cross section displaying this hole indicates they do not extend to other nearby holes. Therefore, it is likely these represent small volumes of material, certainly not the large high grade zone implied by the longer reported intercept.
    7) Reporting “geological potential” is highly unconventional, but it is done very liberally in this news release. The QP asserts that the Island-Cow-Barkerville belt potentially hosts 405-684 million tons at 0.12-0.16 oz per ton for 65-90 million oz gold. The Rainbow unit of the Barkerville sequence is stated as being the preferential host to veins at Cariboo due to its brittle nature. The news release implies that the resource modeler used this observation to make certain assumptions about volumes of rock, vein density, etc. to help calculate this potential. While such theoretical exercises are entertaining, they are highly speculative and have no place in a news release.


    The seven red flags I have presented here are hopefully enough to provide you a taste of my initial review of Barkerville’s resource. This story comes at an interesting time given the current doldrums in the market. I’d urge subscribers to give the observations above some thought and undertake your own due diligence before jumping into this stock.


    We have now beaten this one up sufficiently. It is up to Peter T. George, the resource modeler contracted by Barkerville, to, in his upcoming NI 43-101 report, fully illuminate investors on the methodology he employed to calculate this astounding resource. Like Brent, I shall be preparing a cold gin and tonic about 45 days from now in preparation.


    Cheers, QH

  • Barkerville Gold Mines / BGM, BGMZF (CVE, OTC)

    Hier ein Originalkommentar Brent Cook und Quinton Hennigh die zusammen den Brief "Exploration Insights" herausgeben, zur aktuellen Ressourcenkalkulation von BGM - Barkerville. Das sind zwei der hochangesehensten Geologen die hier zusammen kommen. Ganz unten sind meine Quellen zu finden.


    Brent Cook im Interview mit dem Northern Miner: (Selsbt vor einem Vergleich mit Bre-X schreckt er nicht zurück)


    “It can’t go from half a million oz. at half the grade to 10 million oz. at twice the grade, you can’t do that, it doesn’t happen in reality,” said geologist Brent Cook of Exploration Insights in a phone interview. Cook said his initial reaction to the news was disbelief.
    “It got me to pull out my copy of ‘Gold Today, Gone Tomorrow,’” Cook said of the book about the Bre-X scandal."



    "...the company could theoretically be sitting on between 65 million and 90 million oz. gold.


    “It’s impossible, period,” was Cook’s reaction to the 90 million oz. figure. Even for the Cow Mountain resource itself, Cook pointed out the challenge of achieving such high numbers.
    “This is a narrow, high-grade vein district. From the cross-sections we’ve seen, you have a real hard time connecting the veins. Continuity is a real real problem there,” Cook said."


    Vollversion:
    VANCOUVER — Barkerville Gold Mines' (BGM-V) share price has climbed more than 50% since the company put out a 10.6-million-oz.-gold resource estimate for its Cow Mountain deposit, but questions remain as to the accuracy of the estimate.


    The resource estimate in question, compiled by Geoex Ltd. president Peter T. George, establishes 62.6 million indicated tonnes grading 5.28 grams gold per tonne using a 0.86 gram cut-off for the project in central British Columbia.


    On the day Barkerville released the news its share price almost doubled at one point, climbing 79¢ to a high of $1.60 before closing up 40¢ or 49% at $1.21 with 7.2 million shares traded. On July 3, the second day of trading following the news, the company’s share price again spiked, reaching as high as $1.67 before enthusiasm waned and the company closed up a penny at $1.22 with 11.3 million shares traded.


    The new resource follows up on a 2006 estimate on the project by G. H. Giroux of Giroux Consultants that estimated Cow Mountain contained 6 million indicated tonnes grading 2.23 grams gold for 431,000 oz. gold, plus an inferred resource of 1.5 million tonnes grading 1.85 grams gold for a further 91,000 oz. gold, all using a 0.68 gram gold cut-off.


    The huge jump in both the tonnage and grade has raised the suspicion of observers.


    “It can’t go from half a million oz. at half the grade to 10 million oz. a twice the grade, you can’t do that, it doesn’t happen in reality,” said geologist Brent Cook of Exploration Insights in a phone interview. Cook said his initial reaction to the news was disbelief.


    “It got me to pull out my copy of ‘Gold Today, Gone Tomorrow,’” Cook said of the book about the Bre-X scandal.


    Quinton Hennigh, writing for Brent Cook’s Exploration Insights newsletter, raised numerous questions about the estimate. To giving a visualization of what the deposit would look like, he wrote:


    “It is an order of magnitude richer per cubic meter than the Timmins Camp in Ontario. To support such a resource, the 1,000 by 300 by 300-meter block of ground at Barkerville’s Cow Mountain would have to host approximately 39 kilometers of Mother Lode type veins, at a density of one 2-meter wide vein spaced every 7.6 meters. This assumes each and every vein is consistently grading 5.28 grams per tonne gold along a 300 meter strike and 300 meter depth.”


    Along with pointing out the dubious “quantum leap in size and grade” of the resource compared with the previous one, Hennigh also points out the oddity of the whole resource qualifying as indicated category with no inferred, that a single drill hole in a 100-ft.-horizontal by 50-ft.-vertical ellipse qualifies the block as ore, that the company has employed ‘extreme grade smearing’, and that the company has released far too little data overall.


    For instance, the 2006 resource was based on 366 diamond and percussion drill holes completed between 1980 and 1998, and the company looks to have drilled about 238 drill holes between 2007 and 2011. Barkerville, however, states that a total of 2,638 drill holes have now been drilled on Cow Mountain totalling 145,600 metres of drilling, without providing the source of all those drill holes nor the assay results.


    Looking beyond the Cow Mountain resource, the Geoex study also took the unusual step of putting out the ‘geological potential’ of the 6.4-km-long trend on which Cow Mountain falls. Based on 10% of the company's tenure, including the Cow Mountain, Island Mountain, and Barkerville Mountain areas, the Geoex report states there could be between 367 million tonnes and 621 million tonnes grading between 4.11 grams gold and 5.49 grams gold. That would mean the company could theoretically be sitting on between 65 million and 90 million oz. gold.


    “It’s impossible, period,” was Cook’s reaction to the 90 million oz. figure. Even for the Cow Mountain resource itself, Cook pointed out the challenge of achieving such high numbers.


    “This is a narrow, high-grade vein district. From the cross-sections we’ve seen, you have a real hard time connecting the veins. Continuity is a real real problem there,” Cook said.


    Geologically the project is underlain by the Barkerville terrane, which is part of the Omineca belt of the Canadian Cordillera. Barkerville reports that gold mineralization occurs as quartz veins located in shear-type and tension-type fractures in lithologies more brittle than the surrounding lithologies, and as disseminated sulphide zones localized in the nose of secondary local fold structures that have the same northwesterly plunge as the regional, orogeny-related, asymmetrical, overturned, isoclinal fold structures.


    Peter George has already been rebuked once for an overly-optimistic resource estimate, with the British Columbia Securities Commission forcing Rubion Minerals (RMX-V) in March 2011 to re-state an estimate prepared by George.


    Quellen:
    http://incakolanews.blogspot.d…d-mines-bgmv-quentin.html
    http://incakolanews.blogspot.d…gmv-brent-cooks-turn.html
    www.northernminer.com/news/updated-barkerville-climbs-50-on-10-6-million-oz-resource/1001505371/

  • Avion Gold / AVR (TOR)

    Avion Gold Corporation veröffentlichte gestern die Produktionszahlen des zweiten Quartals 2012. In den drei Monaten bis zum 30. Juni erreichte das Unternehmen bei der Tabakoto-Liegenschaft in Mali eine Produktion von circa 28.637 Unzen Gold. Damit wurde wie schon im ersten Quartal eine Rekordproduktion erzielt. Seit Jahresbeginn konnte das Unternehmen einen Ausstoß von 54.894 Unzen Gold verzeichnen.


    Im Gesamtjahr 2012 erwartet Avion Gold aktuell eine Produktion von 95.000 bis 102.000 Unzen.


    During the second quarter of 2012, the Company milled 191,500 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 5.05 g/t Au, with a 92.5% mill recovery.


    Die Originalnachricht gibt es hier: http://www.aviongoldcorp.com/N…-20121130100/default.aspx

  • YUKON Gold Rush

    Ein Placement mit "Flow-Through" Aktien ist nicht vergleichbar mit normalen Aktien.


    Flow Through-Aktien sind steuerbegünstigte Kapitalanlagen im Bereich natürlicher Ressourcen in Kanada. Steuerzahler mit hohen Grenzsteuersätzen können ihr zu versteuerndes Einkommen senken und abhängig von ihrem Wohnort erstattungsfähige oder nicht erstattungsfähige Steuergutschriften erhalten. Das Unternehmen ist verpflichtet die Einnahmen aus dem Flow-Through Teil nur für den Bergbau in Kanada zu verwenden.


    Quellen:
    http://www.neilfriesen.com/flow-through-shares/
    http://www.milliondollarjourne…w-through-shares-work.htm


    Im letzten Link wird als Beispiel mit einer Steuererstattung für den Anleger von 40% gerechnet.
    Bezogen auf die 3,30 CAD von ATC ergibt sich dann eigentlich ein bereinigter PP-Preis von 1,98 CAD.


    Der kleinere Teil mit 2,85 CAD sind normale Aktien, die Einnahmen daraus sollten für working capital oder generell ausserhalb Kanadas genutzt werden.