Summary
Torex Gold put together another solid quarter in Q3-24, is sitting at ~82% of its guidance midpoint and is on track for another year of meeting/beating guidance. Notably, the company's financial results should improve materially in H2-24 with tax payments and profit sharing out of the way earlier in the year, and Media Luna remains on track for commercial production in mid-2025 with very solid execution by the project team. And in a sector where it's rare to find a producer delivering on promises this consistently, Torex continues to stand as one company that can be relied upon to execute successfully, and the valuation remains very reasonable at less than 5x FY2026 EV/FCF estimates.
That being said, although I see further upside in Torex Gold from current levels, I don't see enough of a margin of safety in the stock today above US$19.50 when adjusting for the fact that it's a single-asset producer in a Tier-2 ranked jurisdiction. This doesn't mean that the stock can't go higher, but I prefer to buy on sharp pullbacks, and that is not the setup we're working with today. For this reason, I continue to focus on what I believe to be more attractive opportunities elsewhere in the sector, but would strongly consider getting back into Torex if we see a pullback below US$16.10.