Summary
There's no shortage of cheap producers in the gold sector today after another waterfall decline in the Gold Miners Index despite little movement in the gold price. However, I prefer to concentrate exposure in producers on those names that are the best run, and B2Gold has consistent per share growth like Agnico Eagle (AEM). And while B2Gold may not share Agnico's attribute of being a primarily Tier-1 jurisdiction producer, it is one of the few producers sector-wide that has consistently grown its per share metrics, consistently beat guidance and a company that consistently guided conservatively, seen the market sell it off on these conservative estimates and then beat significantly by year-end on costs and production.
I wouldn't expect any different this in 2024, with production likely to come in closer to 915,000 ounces (FY2024 guidance midpoint: 900,000 ounces) at $1,390/oz AISC (FY2024 guidance midpoint: $1,390/oz), suggesting there's an opportunity to buy here ahead of the B2Gold transformation and on low expectations - one of my favorite setups for buying major producers.
[Blockierte Grafik: https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/3/15/45984866-17105034584068408.png]
B2Gold Actual Production vs. Guidance - Company Filings, Author's Chart
Given this track record of over-delivering on promises, I've increased my exposure further given the violent sell-off in the stock. And while it's certainly possibly that the stock could continue to drift lower, this is not a position I am worried about given the excellent track record of management and the fact that production and margins are expected to bounce back with a vengeance in 2025 (2024: ~915,000 ounces estimates at $1,400/oz AISC estimates ----> estimates of ~1.22 million ounces at $1,100/oz AISC in 2025). Hence, I would expect a 180-degree shift in sentiment in the second half of this year as we await first pour from Goose, which hopefully can also benefit from positive grade reconciliation like Agnico has been seeing at Meadowbank.
In summary, B2Gold remains one of my top-5 favorite ideas sector-wide currently, and I see this pullback as a gift.