Summary
B2Gold's Q1 results came in as expected and actually slightly better than my expectations, with the one negative being that Goose has been pushed out by a quarter, which has a significant impact on FY2025 cash flow and free cash flow estimates. However, this is only a one quarter push, does not affect its net asset value in any material way and I continue to see a fair value for B2Gold of US$4.60, pointing to ~80% upside from current levels or ~86% on a total return basis with its industry-leading dividend yield.
For value investors willing to be contrarian, B2Gold is now at its most attractive valuation since I highlighted the stock as a steal in Q1 2016 at US$1.30 per share, yet it has a much stronger portfolio, has added its first Tier-1 jurisdiction asset that should help to expand its multiple, and it's a far more de-risked story today. This is because Fekola is in production and optimized, it has a stronger pipeline with full ownership of Gramalote which it took for a song from AngloGold (AU) and if optimized, Goose could potentially be closer to a 400,000 ounce per annum asset with a second mill vs. the ~310,000 ounce per annum asset envisioned in its first five years today.
In summary, I see this weakness in the stock truly being a gift and I would gladly add to my already overweight position if we see further weakness.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4691213-b2gold-high-quality-miner-at-dirt-cheap-valuation
