Im Moment haben viele das gleiche Szenario auf dem Schirm... Kurze Erholung und dann nochmal ein neues Tief so im Bereich des Dezember16-Tiefs, ggf auch darunter. Die Einschätzung von Avi Gilburt deckt sich m.E. auch z.B. mit der von Hopf/Klinkmüller (u.v.a.). Nur ob es wirklich so kommt, wenn so viele das gleiche vermuten?
Zitat von Avi GilburtAlles anzeigenhttps://seekingalpha.com/artic…st-take-metals-back-shoot
Summary
Metals have continued lower.
We should be setting up a bounce.
The next major rally will likely be pushed off until 2019.
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As far as my expectation for the metals, when we came into 2018, I was quite bullish the metals as they had a strong 1-2, i-ii set up to the upside. I have noted many times that if a chart that presents a long-term bullish perspective, such as metals, provides a shorter-term bullish potential set up, I will always defer to that set up as my primary expectation. That is what I did with the metals coming into 2018. But, I provided a clear guide that this will remain a strong perspective only if GLD remains over 119. I noted quite clearly that if GLD were to drop below 119, it would make me question that immediate perspective.
Moreover, when GLD then broke below 117.40, I said many times that this immediate bullish set up will now take months to resurrect. I also noted that I thought the 113 region would likely be tested, and if broken, would suggest that GLD would not bottom until we reached the 105-109 region. Thus far, this seems to be what is playing out.
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As the market has certainly followed through to the downside as outlined above, the potential for seeing that 105 region has increased. But, first, I want to see the market bounce back up towards the 115-116 region. While I am also tracking the potential that we struck a bottom to gold this past week in the overnight market, I don’t see that as the higher probability at this time. Rather, the market will have to prove that to me with an impulsive structure through the 116.50 region. So, I will be watching the next rally quite closely for the structure it develops up to the 115-116 region resistance. Should it be clearly corrective, then I will be looking down for a fifth wave drop to the 109 region, with the potential for an overly emotional reaction as deep as the 105 region.