Beiträge von Blue Horseshoe

  • Chalice Mining / CXN, CHN (TSX, ASX)

    so die nächsten news, einfach meeeega! ca 90% plus über nacht.... :thumbsup:


    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/…15/pdf/44gys7gss005ks.pdf


    Exciting new results received from RC drillingat the Julimar Nickel-Copper-PGE Project, ~70km north-east of Perthin WesternAustralia, following the recentlyreported discovery holeJRC001.


    A new,shallow,high-grade Pd-Ni-Cuzonehas been intersectedin JRC006, ~60m east of JRC001(19m @ 8.4g/t Pd, 1.1g/t Pt, 2.6% Ni, 1.0% Cu and 0.14% Co from 48m). Assay results have been received for the first 80monlyand include:o41m @ 2.6g/t Pd, 0.4g/t Pt, 0.5% Ni, 0.4% Cuand 0.03% Cofrom 39m(sulphide)to limit of assays, including:▪31m @ 3.3g/t Pd, 0.5g/t Pt, 0.7% Ni,0.5% Cuand 0.04% Cofrom 40m.o29m @ 1.9g/t Pd and 0.4g/t Pt from surface (oxide), including:▪11m @ 3.8g/t Pd and 0.7g/t Ptfrom surface.oThenewzones areinterpreted to bestrikingparallel tothe zone in JRC001andremainopenin all directions–aligning with an early to mid-time MLEM anomaly ~200mto the south.



    In addition,allsix RC drill holesassayed to datehave intersected broad zones of significant palladiummineralisation with associated base metals,and three RC drill holes have ended in mineralisation–confirming thelargescalepotentialof the newly-named Gonneville Intrusive.•The Gonneville Intrusive is modelled as a~1.6km long x ~0.7km wide chonolith(irregular shapedintrusive body)–a favourable geometry for large-scale magmatic sulphide depositsgloballyincluding Jinchuanin China and Kabangain Tanzania.•Significant intercepts (>0.3g/t Pd) at the southern end of the Intrusive(in addition to intercepts in JRC006)include:o33m @ 6.5g/t Pd, 0.7g/t Pt, 1.6% Ni,0.7% Cuand 0.1% Cofrom 44m(JRC001);o30m@ 0.9g/t Pdand0.4g/t Ptfrom 8m (oxide) (JRC004);o58m @ 0.9g/t Pdand0.2g/t Pt from 132m(JRC004–base metal assays pending);o25m @ 1.3g/t Pdand0.4g/t Pt from 5m (oxide) (JRC005–base metal assays pending); and,o60m @ 0.9g/t Pdand0.2g/t Ptfrom 30m(JRC005–base metal assays pending).•Significantnewintercepts(>0.3g/t Pd) at the northern end oftheIntrusiveinclude:o119m @ 0.6g/t Pdand0.1g/t Ptfrom 124m (JRC002);and,o142m @ 0.6g/t Pdand0.1g/t Ptfrom 17m (JRC003);


    bg bh

  • Informationen über Öl

    FIRST STAGE OF OIL DEMAND DESTRUCTION: U.S. Supply Of Petroleum Products Down 7 Million Barrels Per day


    The U.S. is only in the FIRST STAGE of the country’s oil demand destruction. Since the nationwide shutdown announced by the U.S. Government in mid-March, domestic oil demand has fallen more than 7 million barrels per day. In just the past three weeks, the total U.S. petroleum products supplied to the market fell by 33%.
    However, I don’t believe we have seen the low yet in U.S. total oil demand. According to the EIA – U.S. Energy Information Agency, total petroleum products supplied to the market on April 3rd were 14.4 million barrels per day (mbd) compared to 21.5 mbd for March 13th.


    [Blockierte Grafik: https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-…ly-Apr-3-2020-768x511.png]


    Over the next 3-4 weeks, I see the total U.S. petroleum products supplied to the market falling to the 12 mbd level (or even lower). With 96% of U.S. airline passenger traffic now lost and a 65-75% reduction of domestic vehicle traffic, the data released for April 3rd still haven’t factored in all the demand destruction.
    For example, U.S. gasoline supplied to the market is down 48% while Jet fuel is off 56%. When U.S. gasoline supplies fall by 60-75% and Jet fuel down by 80%, then we will likely reach a bottom. However, this doesn’t include other petroleum products such as Propane/Propylene (1.1 mbd) and other oils (3.7 mbd):
    [Blockierte Grafik: https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-…ly-Apr-3-2020-768x524.png]


    As we can see, gasoline supplies fell the most in volume, followed by jet fuel. If we just focus on U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, the total products supplied fell 5.8 mbd, or 38%. Diesel supplies are holding up rather well due to the critical transportation via semi-tractors, rail, and ship… all which use diesel fuels.
    Unfortunately, there are secondary negative impacts that are now taking place due to the massive drop-off in gasoline demand. U.S. ethanol production has also fallen off a cliff because most gasoline sold in the country is blended with 10% ethanol. So, if there is less gasoline demand, there will be less ethanol needed.
    [Blockierte Grafik: https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-…ly-APR-3-2020-768x512.png]


    And what about the petroleum products that aren’t used for transportation??? What about the millions of barrels of petroleum that are used to make thousands of products, such as PLASTICS and PAINTS, for example?
    With the U.S. Automobile Industry at a virtual standstill, how is this impacting the demand for petroleum products?? Good question. Well, according to ROAD & SHOW article, COVID-19 and plant closures: The automotive industry’s response to the pandemic, most of the auto-plants in the country will be shut down for at least a month. So, how much plastic goes in each vehicle today??
    In the article, Plastics use in vehicles to grow 75% by 2020, says industry watcher, the typical car will incorporate about 350 kg of plastic, or 772 pounds of plastic. I did some rough calculations and found that about 2.5 pounds of plastic come from a gallon of oil. Thus, each car will consume more than 7 barrels of oil just for the plastic used in each vehicle.
    With approximately 1.5 million vehicles not produced in a month due to the shutdown of auto-plants in the United States, that would equate to a loss of 10.5 million barrels of oil. And, this is just one product in the entire supply chain. So, as we can see, there is a great deal of petroleum product demand destruction taking place, besides what is burned in cars, trucks, trains, and ships.


    vollständiger artikel https://srsroccoreport.com/fir…-million-barrels-per-day/


    bg bh





  • Informationen über Öl

    @vatapitta bitte, gern geschehen - freut mich wenn andere auch etwas rausziehen können.


    ich möchte derzeit meine positionen noch nicht weiter ausbauen... ich halte stärkere rücksetzer bei öl und gas für möglich. alleine der globale tourismus steht für 10% des welt gdp.


    manche schätzungen gehen ja von -30% bpd aus, also bei ca 90mio bpd verbrauch vor der krise eher ein negativ-wachstum von 25-30 mio bpd.


    da ist es bei voll- laufenden öllagermöglichkeiten etc auch nicht mit einem production cut von 9,7 mio bpd getan...


    was passiert dann noch sollte eine zweite covid wave im herbst umlaufen...


    spannende zeiten...
    bg bh

  • Informationen über Öl

    Here Is The "Secret Weapon" That Allowed Tiny Oil Producer Mexico To Defy Giant Saudi Arabia


    It wasn't meant to be like this.
    After the Saudis and Russia cobbled a historic OPEC+ oil production cut which at 10 million b/d was the biggest ever, and one which received the blessing - if not the participation - of Donald Trump, the rest of OPEC+ was supposed to applaud the two oil exporting giants who agreed to cut 23% of their, and everyone else's output, and fall in line agreeing to the terms that were imposed upon them in hopes of sending the price of oil slightly higher, because as a reminder even the agreed upon 10 million cut would do nothing to balance an oil market crushed by what Trafigura calculates was a record 36 million b/d drop in oil demand.


    However, that did not happen because one country dared to stand up to not just Saudi Arabia, but also Russia and the rest of the OPEC cartel, and even forced Trump to bend to its will with the US president - desperate to get the price of WTI higher in hopes of avoiding mass defaults for the US shale industry - saying he would be responsible for Mexico's production cut balance.
    That country is the southern US neighbor, Mexico, which pumps a relatively tiny 1.75 million b/d and which would have been forced to cap its output some 400,000 barrels lower to comply with the deal, however the most Mexico would agree to was a a minuscule 100kb/d cut - a number that is completely meaningless in the grand scheme of the oil market - yet one which openly defies Saudi Arabia which staked its reputation as OPEC's most powerful nation by guaranteeing that every OPEC member would agree to the 23% production cut.
    What followed has been the most surreal "Mexican standoff", one which started during the OPEC teleconference on Thursday, continued on Friday when the G-20 was supposed to also join the production cut yet failed to do so over the confusion over Mexico's ongoing intransigence, and has not yet been resolved as of late on Saturday, with Mexico’s Energy Minister Rocio Nahle refusing to budge from her insistence that the country could only cut output by 100,000 barrels a day, 300,000 less than its fair share of 23% reductions by everyone in the OPEC+ group. On Friday morning, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he had resolved the matter in a phone call with Trump. The U.S. would make an additional 250,000 barrels a day of cuts on Mexico’s behalf. But such a theatrical sleight of hand was not enough for the Saudis who would appear weak, and unable to reign in the cartel's members, would risk cheating and excess production by virtually every smaller OPEC member who would feel, rightfully so, that it is unfair for Mexico to get preferential treatment.
    As a result, two days after oil surged on hopes of (at least) a 10mmb/d cut, the deal that was supposedly finalized on Thursday has yet to emerge, with the that come Sunday evening when trading reopens, Brent could plunge as the production cut ends in disarray.
    But why is Mexico risking the collapse of OPEC, and another sharp plunge in oil prices, by refusing to comply with the deal - after all if Mexico cuts just another 250K barrels in output from its adjusted total it will unlock if not higher prices, then at least avoid an even sharper plunge in the price of oil. Sure, it may not balance the market, and $50 Brent won't come back for a long time, but avoiding another dramatic plunge in oil would be worth the cut, right?
    Well, no because while that would be the reasonable economic equation for all other OPEC members, Mexico has always had what Bloomberg dubbed a "sector weapon" up its sleeve, one which incentivizes Mexico's president to either get his way, or watch as oil craters... and get paid billions.
    We are talking of course about Mexico's famous annual oil hedge, which in recent years has manifested itself mostly in the form of billions of dollars spent on oil puts, which we profiled extensively back in 2016 and 2017.
    As Bloomberg's Javier Blas, who has closely followed Mexico's oil hedgers in the recent past writes, for the last two decades, Mexico has bought "Asian" style put options from some of the most prominent US investment banks and oil companies, in what’s considered Wall Street’s largest - and most closely guarded - annual oil deal. The options give Mexico the right to sell its oil at a predetermined price. They are the equivalent of an insurance policy: the country banks all gains from higher prices but enjoys the security of a minimum floor. So - unlike all of its OPEC peers - if oil prices remain weak or plunge even further, Mexico will still book higher prices.
    In 2016, Mexico spent $1.03 billion to protect itself from a downturn in prices, according to data released in the quarterly budget balance. In recent years, Mexico has spent an average $1 billion buying the hedges. The hedge first appeared in 2001, when Mexico made a tentative showing, spending just $217.3 million on put options, a fraction of the approximately $1 billion a year it would spend later. In 2003 and 2004, with oil prices rising, the country opted not to hedge at all. The strategy came into its own in 2005: Mexico has hedged every year since without interruption, giving it a unique peace of mind that should a worst case scenario happen, it would be able to sleep soundly a t night. Agustín Carstens, who later became head of the central bank, was finance minister when a massive $5.1 billion payout came in 2009; some government officials also refer to the annual oil bet as "the Agustínian hedge"; then in 2015, after the OPEC Thanksgiving massacre of 2015, the hedge made $6.4 billion and another $2.7 billion in 2016 after Saudi Arabia waged another failed price war aimed to crushing US shale producers.
    Mexico's annual spending on its hedge with Wall Street banks is shown in the chart below.


    [Blockierte Grafik: https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/cost%20of%20hedging.jpg?itok=PCUxiMDn]
    Unfortunately for the rest of the world's oil producers, only Mexico had the foresight to hedge an outcome such as the one we are seeing now, and that is giving Mexico unprecedented leverage to demand... pretty much anything, even preferential treatment from its OPEC peers.
    ...
    Slashing 400,000 barrels a day to comply with the OPEC+ deal, rather than the 100,000 barrels a day that Mexico has counter-offered to Saudi Arabia, would put on hold his ambitious plan to return Pemex to its former glory.
    But a token 100,000 cut - one which flaunts the Saudi demands for equal sacrifice by all the cartel members - is unacceptable to Crown Price MbS, hence the Mexican standoff continues.


    The insurance policy isn’t cheap," Mexican Finance Minister Arturo
    Herrera told broadcaster Televisa on March 10. “But it’s insurance for
    times like now. Our fiscal budget isn’t going to be hit." Pemex, the
    state-owned company, has its own separate, smaller oil hedge.
    As Bloomberg reports, Mexico has disclosed very few details about its insurance for 2020 after it declared the sovereign hedge a state secret. However, based on limited public information, alongside historical data about previous years, it’s possible to make a rough estimate of the potential payout if prices remain low. The government told lawmakers it has guaranteed revenues to support the assumptions for oil prices made in the country’s budget - of $49 a barrel for the Mexican oil export basket, equivalent to about $60-$65 a barrel for Brent crude.
    Mexico locks in that revenue via two elements: the hedge, and the country’s oil stabilization fund. The fund historically has only provided $2-$5 a barrel, so one can assume that Mexico hedged at $45 a barrel at least for its crude. In the past, Mexico has hedged around 250 million barrels, equal to nearly all its net oil exports in an operation that runs from Dec. 1 to Nov. 30.
    Putting these calculations together suggests that if the Mexican oil export basket were to remain at current levels, the country would receive a multi-billion dollar payout. Since December, the Mexican oil basket has averaged $42 a barrel.
    In other words, if current low prices for Mexican oil continue until the end of November, the average would drop to just above $20 a barrel, and the hedge would pay out close to $6 billion, according to Bloomberg News calculations.
    In short, Mexico may be far more incentivized to see oil prices stay low, or drop lower, than rebound modestly while also losing out on an additional 250kb/d in potential output.
    It is this math that is threatening to collapse not only the production cut deal, but OPEC itself because if the Saudis are seen as too weak to get even tiny oil exporters Mexico to heel - and absent MbS paying AMLO billions they won't be able to - then all bets are off as Riyadh loses what little respect it had before the deal. and the "cartel" becomes an every oil producer for himself free for all.


    https://www.zerohedge.com/comm…o-defy-giant-saudi-arabia


    bh bh


  • Informationen über Öl

    Zitat von konterbande

    Nachdem sich jetzt die Hauptakteure "ausgetauscht" haben wird sich auf einen "Wohlfühlpreis" geeinigt (die Rede ist von 42 $).

    das wird sich zeigen, die meisten incl. walsltreet gehen doch noch davon aus,
    das ende april der cov19 spuk beendet ist.
    da wird das meiner überzeugung weltweit erst richtig losgehen.... -25+mio bpd verbrauch über mehrere monate, dann sehen wir mal wo öl steht, abgesehen von inflatorischer maßnahmen.... bei sich beschleunigender geldentwertung, ist vieles denkbar.



    bg bh

  • Informationen über Öl

    Zitat von Wurschtler

    Bei Öl hatten wir ja nicht nur den Corona-Crash, sondern zusätzlich auch noch den (künstlichen) Konflikt Russland vs. Saudi-Arabien mit Fördermengenerhöhung statt Reduzierung.

    ich sehe da keinen konflikt. der preiskampf dreht sich hauptsächlich um die ca 7,7 mio bpd ölproduktion der usa,
    https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=847&t=6
    die die letzten jahre (subventioniert) auf den weltmarkt gekommen sind.


    sieht man auch an dem statement russlands(putin), keine verhandlungen über förderkürzungen ohne die beteiligung der usa an den produktionskürzungen.


    bg bh

  • Informationen über Öl

    What Happens If The World Runs Out Of Oil Storage?


    t was only a matter of time, really.
    With demand decimated by the coronavirus and Saudi Arabia on the oil
    warpath, the imbalance between oil supply and demand deepened
    dramatically, raising the question of what happens when the world's oil
    tanks and tankers fill up.
    The answer? Nothing good.
    Earlier this month, oil data analytics firm OilX warned that oil in storage around the world could reach 1 billion barrels before long. This week, Reuters quoted shipping industry sources as saying that as much as 80 million barrels of oil are hanging out in floating storage. OilX has calculated that this oil in floating storage could be even more, at some 100 million barrels.
    ........
    The group of doomsayers is large and growing. There is virtually no optimistic scenario about oil demand right now, just a couple of months after the IEA and the EIA predicted continued growth for U.S. shale output to over 13 million bpd, and investment banks forecast stable oil prices. But two months ago, the coronavirus outbreak had not yet become a pandemic. The situation is, according to many, unprecedented, which means the industry and all other stakeholders are navigating a terra incognita.
    Global oil storage capacity has an upper usability limit of 1.2 billion barrels, according to IHS Markit data cited by Forbes' Sharma. In order to avoid filling tanks and tankers to the brim, producers would have to cut production, and according to IHS Markit, the cut would need to be about 10 million bpd. It looks like this cut would need to come soon to avoid a collapse in benchmark prices into single-digit territory. Of course, a question arises here: who will agree to cut so much production?
    The answer: whoever wants to survive the crisis without too much pain.
    ---


    Was passiert, wenn der Welt die Ölvorräte ausgehen?


    s war wirklich nur eine Frage der Zeit.


    Mit der durch das Coronavirus und Saudi-Arabien dezimierten Nachfrage nach dem Öl
    Kriegspfad, das Ungleichgewicht zwischen Ölangebot und -nachfrage vertieft
    dramatisch, was die Frage aufwirft, was passiert, wenn das Öl der Welt
    Tanks und Tankwagen tanken.


    Die Antwort? Nichts Gutes.


    Anfang dieses Monats warnte die Öldatenanalysefirma OilX, dass das weltweit gelagerte Öl in Kürze 1 Milliarde Barrel erreichen könnte. In dieser Woche zitierte Reuters Quellen aus der Schifffahrtsindustrie, dass bis zu 80 Millionen Barrel Öl in schwimmenden Lagern hängen. OilX hat berechnet, dass dieses Öl in schwimmender Lagerung noch mehr sein könnte, nämlich etwa 100 Millionen Barrel.



    ........



    Die Gruppe der Schwarzmaler ist groß und wächst. Es gibt im Moment praktisch kein optimistisches Szenario für die Ölnachfrage, nur wenige Monate nachdem die IEA und die EIA ein weiteres Wachstum der US-Schieferproduktion auf über 13 Millionen bpd vorhergesagt haben, und die Investmentbanken prognostizieren stabile Ölpreise. Doch vor zwei Monaten war der Ausbruch des Coronavirus noch nicht zu einer Pandemie geworden. Die Situation ist nach Meinung vieler Menschen beispiellos, was bedeutet, dass die Industrie und alle anderen Beteiligten sich auf einer Terra Incognita befinden.



    Die globale Öllagerkapazität hat nach den von Forbes' Sharma zitierten Daten von IHS Markit eine obere Nutzungsgrenze von 1,2 Milliarden Barrel. Um zu vermeiden, dass Tanks und Tanker bis zum Rand gefüllt werden, müssten die Produzenten die Produktion kürzen, und laut IHS Markit müsste die Kürzung etwa 10 Millionen bpd betragen. Es sieht so aus, als müsste diese Kürzung bald erfolgen, um einen Einbruch der Benchmark-Preise in den einstelligen Bereich zu vermeiden. Natürlich stellt sich hier eine Frage: Wer wird einer solchen Kürzung der Produktion zustimmen?



    Die Antwort: Wer die Krise ohne allzu große Schmerzen überstehen will.
    Übersetzt mit http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (kostenlose Version)



    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Cr…s-Out-Of-Oil-Storage.html


    ich warte mit dem nachkaufen/wiedereinstieg immer noch ab.


    bg bh


  • SILBER : Märkte und Informationen

    GLOBAL SILVER SUPPLY COLLAPSE ON ITS WAY: Mexico mining suspension to hit silver supply


    [Blockierte Grafik: https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-…ountries-2018-768x526.png]


    ...
    "So, each month that Mexico and Peru are offline, would reduce silver mine supply by 28 million oz. However, I believe we are going to see more countries shut down their mines for an extended period as the global contagion continues to spread." ......


    "The shutdown of silver mines throughout the world is taking place when investors are buying a record amount of physical silver bullion. This has now become a PERFECT STORM for the silver price going forward."....



    ganzer artikel unter:


    https://srsroccoreport.com/glo…ion-to-hit-silver-supply/



    bg bh



  • SILBER : Märkte und Informationen

    von steve st angelo - srsrocco



    Silver Investing During The Coming Financial Storm


    Externer Inhalt www.youtube.com
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    Durch die Aktivierung der externen Inhalte erklären Sie sich damit einverstanden, dass personenbezogene Daten an Drittplattformen übermittelt werden. Mehr Informationen dazu haben wir in unserer Datenschutzerklärung zur Verfügung gestellt.


    bg bh

  • Informationen über Öl

    Zitat von Salorius

    wo bekomme ich nur "echte" russische Aktien her? Die wollen mir alle immer ADRs andrehen..?

    ich sags nochmal, international broker, und hört mir diesmal auf mit rating mimimi, es wird alles totgedruckt. da kippt kein broker mehr. die hiesige sparkasse ist wahrscheinlich bei realistischer betrachtung das selbe risiko.


    https://www.moex.com/n25407/?nt=207


    ich kaufe nur noch russische orginalaktien, weil ich den gdr adr verwaltern weniger traue als nen bbb+ rating von ib.


    bg bh

  • Gold ... Meinungen und Diskussionen

    Die Crash-Titanen im Gespräch: Markus Krall und Florian Homm


    Externer Inhalt www.youtube.com
    Inhalte von externen Seiten werden ohne Ihre Zustimmung nicht automatisch geladen und angezeigt.
    Durch die Aktivierung der externen Inhalte erklären Sie sich damit einverstanden, dass personenbezogene Daten an Drittplattformen übermittelt werden. Mehr Informationen dazu haben wir in unserer Datenschutzerklärung zur Verfügung gestellt.


    bg bh