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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
Some US economic news:
06:27 Flat shopping season seen by NPD Group -- Reuters
According to a holiday buying survey by NPD Group, most Americans are planning to curb their holiday spending this year, making it a challenging shopping season for US retailers. Nine out of 10 consumers said they would spend the same amount as or less than they did in 2003. A sluggish economy and nagging labor market weakness are cited. Higher gasoline prices are also seen as another big factor, according to the results. NPD also indicates 72% of consumers will shop this season in discount stores including TGT and WMT.
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07:27 NJR NJR subsidiary New Jersey Nat'l Gas received NJ BPU approval to raise gas prices on 10/5 (42.10)
A 7.5% monthly increase was approved, which means the average bill will increase more than $14 during the peak season, with the average customer seeing an increase of more than $95 for the year. Citing wholesale energy prices.
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U.S.: NATURAL GAS WELLHEAD PRICE EXPECTED TO BE UP 23%
U.S.: PROPANE PRICES UP 17% THIS WINTER
US: HOME HEATING OIL PRICES UP 29% THIS WINTER
10:31 DOE reports crude oil inventories +1.1M barrels vs. expectations +2.75M barrels
Gasoline inventories reported +600K barrels vs. consensus (750K) barrels.
Distillate inventories reported (2.1M) barrels vs. consensus (1.05M) barrels.
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1:02 API reports crude oil inventories +2.7M barrels
Gasoline inventories (3.4M) barrels; distillate inventories (2.9M) barrels. Nov. WTI crude continues to trade higher; last $51.60. High of day is $51.80.
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Chuck checked in this morning:
Bill:
I think that the precious metals market is going to shock here. Remarkably, the TFC sentiment has strangely turned very cautious and the small exploration companies are still absorbing selling although the volume is rising. I think that something spectacular is ready to go here. Perhaps, the old squeeze play as Jackie Gleason said on the "Honeymooners." What else can the Fed and the government do buy pump? C.
Then later on:
That's twice near $420. What is interesting is that once gold sells off, there is no lift in the metal. That smacks of forced selling to push the price down.
I think that the days of capping here are coming to a close. Like an army, they will have to retreat and try to battle at another location, probably near the old high. But in this leg, it is more obvious why one should buy gold, and more buyers are continually entering the fray. But, it is still very annoying.
Chuck
Amusing:
Hi Bill,
This is a gem. On attempting, three or four times, to go on the cross reference given in today's Midas in the appendix:
Central Bank Foreign Exchange Market Intervention and Option Contract
Specification: The Case of Colombia/
http://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/03135.html#download
I get a message that says, "Access to the port number given has been disabled for security reasons."
Paul T
Well deserved praise for Houston’s Dan Norcini:
Dan Just Keeps Knocking Them Out of the Park!
Dan,
I always enjoy your writing and continue to learn a great deal from you. I am especially grateful for your most recent piece about open interest, because it clarifies a very problematic issue for me. I have been with LeMetropole about two years and have learned a great deal about commodities markets. However, the open interest contract positions often cited in Midas remained an enigma. What I thought the correlations should be, didn't coincide with the market direction, nor Bill Murphy's spot on interpretations. Because market direction didn't function in a logical progression, it continued to be a source of frustration for me. Futures and the COMEX (CRIMEX) are very difficult markets for the average investor to learn about, but you have now explained it in such a clear, cogent manner, that the Alice In Wonderland actuality of everything upside down, is understood. Not factoring in the criminal manipulation and counter intuitive behavior of the COT was the missing link. Understanding the process now, the anti trust law violations are blatant! I say this as a person who has thirty years of municipal law enforcement experience and who has served in such positions as Chief Investigator. I know a strong case when I see one! For the regulators, charged with oversight of these exchanges, to not do their sworn duty is evidence of criminal corruption extending to the highest possible levels. There can be no other explanation for these contradictory trends than price control of gold and silver through manipulation.
Moreover, it is being done by persons who are not remotely connected to the mining industry, which completely contradicts the COMEX's own regulatory language concerning producers being able to hedge for price protection. The gun is smoking, dripping with the victims blood, and not only covered with finger prints, but also still in the hand of the shooter! Yet, those charged with protecting investors and maintaining the honesty of the exchange remain silent, while enjoying their high paid positions even though they are dysfunctional, impotent, pathetic, cowards, who lack even a modicum of integrity. Not one whistle blower in the bunch! This is insult to injury, as corruption amongst those sworn to uphold the laws is the least tolerable of all criminal behavior.
Knowing that there are great people like you involved in this fight, maintains my hope that GATA and us small investors will be vindicated one day soon, as this mockery of justice spins out of control. Criminal cartels are notorious for imploding because they became so comfortable and cocky that their omnipotent behavior resulted in mistakes which provided the evidence for ensuring their demise. We only need to have one honest judge, prosecutor, and investigator to penetrate their flawed armor. Maybe some day soon, I will get to meet guys like you and Bill Murphy during a trial, where you two testify as experts and me as an aggrieved investor. The class action suit pending (Blanchard) is the perfect resolution for this out of control lawlessness.
Your articles will contribute greatly to the chain of evidence, along with the Russian Central Bank's statements, Sprott Report, FOMC admission of manipulating the Bond market, Bill Murphy's Midas chronology, Jim Sinclair's insights, and GATA's tremendous efforts, etc. I can not imagine any prosecuting attorney not licking their chops at the bullet proof case and expert witnesses laid out before him in this air tight chain of evidence about the greatest fraud in the history of America. This is historic! You're the man Dan, and I will fight along side of you any day. I'm proud to be a part of this effort, with great men like you.
Sincerely,
Rich Caccavale
Some performance by silver again. It appears to be Rock 'N Roll time. Sure should be with oil doing what it is ($51.90 per barrel as I go to press).
The reasons to be long gold and silver become more compelling by the days and weeks. Only the considerable efforts by a bunch of crooks have kept gold from streaking towards $500. My bet is they go down the drain in the near future. Time for the GATA stretcher-bearers to warm up once again to carry the bums out.
Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime. So remember:
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
Appendix
Gulf Daily News
October 6, 2004
Stick with gold and euro Bahrain investors urged
By [/B]DALAL AL ALAWI
[B]MANAMA: Investors in Bahrain have been advised to stick with gold, the euro and other safe haven investments over the next year.These are expected to perform better in a low-interest environment, according to HSBC Bank Global Markets global strategy director David Bloom.However, he advised investors to adopt a strategy which takes into account the changing nature of economies, how the markets are reacting to the new economic environment and the political environment.
Zitat
"It is evident that high commodity and oil prices have not caused inflation in the usual way," he said.
"Major disinflation influences still exist.
"As far as market dynamics are concerned, the market is still coming to terms with the low inflation environment. This will favour the euro, gold and general safe haven investments."
Mr Bloom was speaking to HSBC's corporate clients in a presentation yesterday at the Diplomat Radisson SAS Hotel. He outlined the trends in the global currency market and his expectations for US interest rates over the coming year and beyond.
He is in Bahrain as part of a regional tour, which also included Dubai, Oman, Lebanon and Qatar.
Mr Bloom said the US - with its massive current account deficit and budget deficits, high debt level and an overvalued housing market - is likely to see the dollar suffer most.
"On the political front, investors may decide to become a lot more active once the US elections are out of the way," he said.
"There are investment opportunities, but I don't believe anyone wants to make big investment decisions before the election outcome is known."
Mr Bloom said at the moment the region has low interest rates, employment growth and a really high oil price.
"I think we haven't hit an equilibrium for oil prices but my feeling is when we do, it will be lower than $50-a-barrel," he said.
"The cost of capital is rising, but still it's going to be historically at a very, very low level."
However, Mr Bloom says the dollar has a safe haven status for two reasons. "One of them is the power of the US economy," he said.
"The second is political - the US being the main superpower in the world creates an environment which people hold dollars and feel safe with it."
Mr Bloom added that there has been some slow diversification towards Europe.
"I think that if one has all their eggs in the dollar basket then they need to have a diversity strategy that's sensible," he said.
"If you believe like I do that the euro will do very well in the years to come then you need to buy it. It's a very safe cautious strategy.
"I think strategies in which people try to make others rich very quickly are irresponsible because there is no such thing."
Meanwhile, Mr Bloom said market uncertainty is happening everywhere - not just in the Gulf - but it is something that we have to live with.
He urged people to be cautious and not to adopt high-risk strategies - even if they are frustrated by low returns, which he says are now a fact of life.
"I think people have been used to returns of 20 to 25 per cent a year and now they are looking at real returns of two," he said.
"I'm afraid the low returns environment is here to stay.
"If you want to be rich get up an hour earlier in the morning, that's the best investment strategy because there's no free money."
