Beiträge von ThaiGuru

Fiat money

Aus Wikipedia, der freien Enzyklopädie

Fiat money, auch Kreditgeld genannt, ist Geld, dessen Deckung entweder nicht vollständig oder aber tautologisch ist.

Nicht vollständig ist die Deckung dann, wenn man bei der Rückgabe des Geldes Dinge zurück bekommt, die real weniger wert sind als der nominale Wert des Geldes.

Tautologisch ist die Deckung dann, wenn man bei der Rückgabe des Geldes keine nützlichen Güter, sondern lediglich Forderungen zurück bekommt, die eben wieder auf fiat money lauten.

Beispiel:

Gibt man 1000 € an die Europäische Zentralbank zurück, so erhält man nicht einen Schrank oder ein Fahrrad, sondern man erhält ein Zahlungsversprechen irgendeines Schuldners, etwa 1000 € zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt zu zahlen. Wird dieses Zahlungsversprechen eingelöst, so erhält man wieder 1000 €. Man ist also wieder da, wo man vorher war.

Die Bezeichnung fiat money ist abgeleitet aus dem lateinischen fiat lux (Es werde Licht), denn solches Geld kann einfach nach Bedarf geschaffen werden (Es werde Geld), und der Erschaffer (in der Regel die Zentralbank) muss nicht befürchten, je dafür gerade zu stehen.

Bei tautologischer Deckung kann es den Zentralbanken egal sein, wieviel ihr Geld eigentlich wert ist. Das liegt daran, dass z.B. die EZB bei Einlösung von Euro-Scheinen nur Euro-Forderungen zurückgeben muss. Lautet beides (Passiva und Aktiva) auf Euro, so ist der Marktwert des Euro egal, denn die EZB kann die Einlösung in jedem Fall vollziehen, da sie ja keine realen Werte zurückgeben muss.

Praktisch alle Währungen sind heutzutage tautologisch gedeckt und damit fiat money.

****
Eine sehr empfehlenswerte, und noch bedeutend umfassendere Beschreibung von "Fiat Money", in englischer Sprache, gibt es hier zu lesen:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Silber Bugs!

Ich glaube es wird Zeit den Kühlschrank, die Waschmaschine, und die Klima Anlage zu wechseln.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.manilatimes.net/images2/runners/runner.gif]

http://www.manilatimes.net/nat…ey/life/20040605lif1.html

Saturday, June 05, 2004

A silver lining in home appliances

THAT old chestnut about silver being a potent weapon against monsters has just received a 21st Century update.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.manilatimes.net/nat…/05/yehey/images/life.jpg]

Samsung uses nano-sized silver ions to coat its new line of refrigerators, washing machines and air-conditioners

Samsung’s new line of home appliances uses nano-sized silver ions—positively charged silver particles 75,000 times smaller than the width of a human hair—to zap disease-causing molds, germs and bacteria. Not only does the nano size (nanotechnology deals with atomic particles measured in billionths of a meter) allow the silver ions to easily penetrate the cells of microorganisms, but the positive charge increases surface area and draws negatively charged elements toward them to greater effect.

This “Silver Nano” technology is available in four Samsung’s home appliances launched last week: the HA-1435A washing machine, the AS-24S6GB air conditioner, and two side-by-side refrigerators, namely the stainless steel RS-23JGRS and the mirror finish RS-21DLMR.

The nano-sized silver ions are used to coat refrigerator interiors, air-conditioner filters and washing machine tubs. The silver coating keeps food fresh 15 days longer than average and makes the refrigerator resistant to odor-causing bacteria. Air-conditioner filters treated with silver ions stop the growth of fungi and bacteria inside the air-conditioner, as well as reduce the presence of bacteria in the air within five minutes of operation. In washing machine tubs, meanwhile, the silver ion coating kills bacteria and fungi in soiled laundry.

The silver-ion technology is the product of an extensive three-year study in Korea involving a team of 30 electronic experts and over $10 million invested in research and development.

The antibiotic and disinfectant properties of silver have long been documented by modern science. Silver has been found to be toxic to pathogens yet harmless to humans, food and fabrics. NASA, as well as most major airlines, uses silver filters to guard against water-borne diseases.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

MIDAS

Appendix

Good grief, if half of this story below is true and is the way it really is with President Bush. While off-color language is something I don’t normally permit in MIDAS commentary, the use of the "F" word in this article seems to capture the essence of what the author has found out. I even thought about not putting the entire story up (in case the story was off base, much less off color), however, if these are the whispers such as this going around the Belt Way, it won’t be long before they have some serious effect on the dollar and gold. Thus, better for you to make up your own mind that not be aware of what is circulating.

However, for new Café members, I will repeat something I mentioned a while ago about President Bush. A former head of state (in the Americas) told a Café member that Bush told him he was on a mission from God, which has me thinking this bizarre story might be right on the money. This "head of state" thought Bush’s statement was one of the oddest ones he ever heard.

One more thing for newer Café members. I am not a Democrat and am not out to bash Bush for political reasons. Au contraire. I went out of my way to be of assistance to him months after he became President by going to Austin, Texas. There, I met with two of his boyhood friends from Midland, Texas – one was the most powerful state politician in the Longhorn State. The purpose was to bring the gold manipulation issue to The President’s attention and make him aware how it might bite him down the road if not resolved properly. The meeting went well and a two page executive summary of my presentation (which I prepared upon my return to Dallas) was sent to the President on his private fax the next morning. Days later I received a letter from Lawrence Lindsey, the President’s Economic Advisor at the time, which was postmarked the same day the fax was sent.

The error in judgment I made was that Bush would be different from Clinton as far as gold was concerned. WRONG!

Bush's Erratic Behavior Worries White House Aides
By DOUG THOMPSON
Publisher, Capitol Hill Blue
Jun 4, 2004, 06:15

http://www.capitolhillblue.com…ublish/printer_4636.shtml

President George W. Bush¹s increasingly erratic behavior and wide mood swings has the halls of the West Wing buzzing lately as aides privately express growing concern over their leader¹s state of mind.

In meetings with top aides and administration officials, the President goes from quoting the Bible in one breath to obscene tantrums against the media, Democrats and others that he classifies as ³enemies of the state.²

Worried White House aides paint a portrait of a man on the edge, increasingly wary of those who disagree with him and paranoid of a public that no longer trusts his policies in Iraq or at home.

³It reminds me of the Nixon days,² says a longtime GOP political consultant with contacts in the White House. ³Everybody is an enemy; everybody is out to get him. That¹s the mood over there.²

In interviews with a number of White House staffers who were willing to talk off the record, a picture of an administration under siege has emerged, led by a man who declares his decisions to be ³God¹s will² and then tells aides to ³fuck over² anyone they consider to be an opponent of the administration.

³We¹re at war, there¹s no doubt about it. What I don¹t know anymore is just who the enemy might be,² says one troubled White House aide. ³We seem to spend more time trying to destroy John Kerry than al Qaeda and our enemies list just keeps growing and growing.²

Aides say the President gets ³hung up on minor details,² micromanaging to the extreme while ignoring the bigger picture. He will spend hours personally reviewing and approving every attack ad against his Democratic opponent and then kiss off a meeting on economic issues.

³This is what is killing us on Iraq,² one aide says. ³We lost focus. The President got hung up on the weapons of mass destruction and an unproven link to al Qaeda. We could have found other justifiable reasons for the war but the President insisted the focus stay on those two, tenuous items.²

Aides who raise questions quickly find themselves shut out of access to the President or other top advisors. Among top officials, Bush¹s inner circle is shrinking. Secretary of State Colin Powell has fallen out of favor because of his growing doubts about the administration¹s war against Iraq.

The President's abrupt dismissal of CIA Directory George Tenet Wednesday night is, aides say, an example of how he works.

"Tenet wanted to quit last year but the President got his back up and wouldn't hear of it," says an aide. "That would have been the opportune time to make a change, not in the middle of an election campaign but when the director challenged the President during the meeting Wednesday, the President cut him off by saying 'that's it George. I cannot abide disloyalty. I want your resignation and I want it now."

Tenet was allowed to resign "voluntarily" and Bush informed his shocked staff of the decision Thursday morning. One aide says the President actually described the decision as "God's will."

God may also be the reason Attorney General John Ashcroft, the administration¹s lightning rod because of his questionable actions that critics argue threatens freedoms granted by the Constitution, remains part of the power elite. West Wing staffers call Bush and Ashcroft ³the Blues Brothers² because ³they¹re on a mission from God.²

³The Attorney General is tight with the President because of religion,² says one aide. ³They both believe any action is justifiable in the name of God.²

But the President who says he rules at the behest of God can also tongue-lash those he perceives as disloyal, calling them ³fucking assholes² in front of other staff, berating one cabinet official in front of others and labeling anyone who disagrees with him ³unpatriotic² or ³anti-American.²

³The mood here is that we¹re under siege, there¹s no doubt about it,² says one troubled aide who admits he is looking for work elsewhere. ³In this administration, you don¹t have to wear a turban or speak Farsi to be an enemy of the United States. All you have to do is disagree with the President.²

The White House did not respond to requests for comment on the record.

© Copyright 2004 Capitol Hill Blue

Then, The Serious Implications Of President Bush's Hiring A Personal Outside Counsel For The Valerie Plame Investigation
By JOHN W. DEAN Click here: FindLaw's Writ - Dean: The Serious Implications Of President Bush's Hiring A Personal Outside Counsel For The Vale

-END-

Global: The Mother of All Carry Trades

Stephen Roach (New York

Everyone does it — borrow short and invest long. With the overnight lending rate well below the inflation rate, the cost of money is essentially "free" in real terms. All it takes is reinvestment anywhere else along the yield curve to make a positive return from the spread, or carry, trade. By holding the nominal federal funds rate at a 40-year low of 1%, the Federal Reserve has aided and abetted a multiplicity of carry trades — from those in the Treasury market, to high-yield and emerging-market debt, to credit instruments and mortgage securities. It’s the rage. You can’t afford to miss the carry trade — until, of course, the Fed takes away the proverbial punch bowl.

The American consumer has put on the biggest carry trade of them all. In a job- and income-short recovery, consumers have defied the fundamentals of consolidation and kept on spending. Consumption has soared to a record 71% of GDP in the past two and a half years, well in excess of the 67% share of the 1990s; moreover, during just the past year, the Y-o-Y growth rate of real consumption expenditures accelerated sharply from 2.3% in 1Q03 to 4.3% in 1Q04. Income short consumers have turned, instead, to two exogenous sources of purchasing power — a steady stream of tax cuts and the extraction of equity from their favorite asset, the home.

The asset-based impetus to consumer spending is nothing more than a huge carry trade. Taking advantage of rock-bottom interest rates, American homeowners have embarked on a record mortgage-refinancing bonanza. By some estimates, the equity extraction that has resulted from this frenzy exceeded $550 billion in 2003, or more than 6.5% of disposable personal income. I should note that this estimate is based on the simple difference between the change in mortgage debt and net investment in residential housing — a gauge that Dick Berner has criticized as a macro-analytical tool (see his August 1, 2003 essay, "Why the ‘Refi’ Bust Won’t Cripple Consumer Spending"). Notwithstanding his critique, Dick concedes that refis have been an important source of consumer purchasing power in recent years. And with good reason: The temptation of low interest rates and ever-rising property values simply proved irresistible to income-short US households. This was a sure-fire way to make ends meet in tough times.

The only catch in this sure thing is the means by which it occurs — debt. The American consumer has never — repeat, never — gone on a debt binge the likes of which has occurred in recent years. Household sector debt now exceeds 85% of GDP — an all-time high and about 20 percentage points higher than the ratio a decade ago. The common refrain to this complaint is that consumer debt ratios have always risen over time as households have become wise in the ways of sophisticated balance sheet management. Moreover, there are many who argue that consumers are being entirely rational in turning to debt in a low interest rate climate; after all, goes the logic, with rates at 40-year lows, it seems inconceivable that debt service could ever become onerous.

Think again. Debt service measures published by the Federal Reserve are already flashing warning signs. The Fed now has two official gauges of household debt burdens — a narrow measure of mortgage and installment debt payments and a broader measure of financial obligations, which also includes auto lease payments, residential rents, and homeowners’ insurance and property tax payments. Even with interest rates at 40-year lows, both of these debt burden proxies are in the upper decile of historical experience. The reason: the sheer magnitude of the stock of outstanding indebtedness.

But the "rational" consumer is widely thought to have the fallback position of what the trade calls a "long duration liability structure" — a preponderance of fixed rate indebtedness that supposedly locks in low interest rates for a longer period of time and thereby shields the indebted from the upside of the rate cycle. Think again here as well. In recent months, there has been an ominous surge in the demand for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). In May 2004, the ARMs share of the dollar volume of new mortgage originations rose to 50%, up sharply from the 20% average that had prevailed from 2001 through mid-2003. This recent rush to ARMs leaves overly indebted American consumers increasingly exposed to the upside of the interest rate cycle at just the point when the Fed is about to embark on the march to policy normalization. In other words, the American consumer has upped the ante on the carry trade at precisely the wrong point in the rate cycle. And they call that rational?

There’s one final twist to this puzzle — the possibility that carry trades lead to asset bubbles. In perpetual search of the easy returns that steep yield curves seem to guarantee and, in today’s case, returns that can be financed freely at rock-bottom short-term interest rates, investors have rushed into a host of long duration assets. In other words, the lure of the carry trade is so compelling, it creates artificial demand for "carryable" assets that has the potential to turn normal asset price appreciation into bubble-like proportions.

In my view, that’s now a perfectly legitimate concern in what is arguably America’s most important asset market — residential housing. Just-released government data on nationwide house prices are flashing distinct warning signs of just such a possibility (see Dick Berner’s, "Bubble Trouble?" in today’s Forum for a more sanguine assessment of this aspect of the problem). The so-called OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) US house price index has now increased at a 9.8% average annual rate over the past two quarters, one of the strongest two-quarter increases on record and enough to take the index up 7.7% above its year-earlier level in 1Q04. While that’s not in outright bubble territory just yet, there are some increasingly worrisome signs of such a possibility in some of America’s most important housing markets. That’s especially the case in California, which contains approximately 20% of the nation’s housing stock by value; according to the latest OFHEO sample, home prices in the Golden State stood 13.9% above their year-earlier level in 1Q04. In the tri-state New York area, Y-o-Y house price inflation averaged 10% in the most recent period. And these numbers, of course, pale in comparison to what you hear on the bi-coastal cocktail circuit.

The problem with asset bubbles in an overly indebted economy is that they are a recipe for disaster. Think back a mere four years ago — bubbles always pop. But the real threat is the popping of the levered bubble. Therein lies the biggest risk of all for today’s overly-indebted, income- and saving-short American consumers. If they lose the asset-based underpinning of the carry trade, it could finally be game over.

I will be the first to concede that this is Old Macro — in other words, it’s based on a theory that has been dead wrong for the past year and a half. But in retrospect, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why consumers have kept spending. It’s Washington, stupid — the most powerful combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus in modern history. Consumers have been well trained to pounce on such opportunities. Ever since they discovered the sheer ecstasy of the wealth effect in the late 1990s, American households have refused to live within their means, as those means are delineated by what they earn on their jobs. Instead, consumers have repeatedly gone to the Fountain of Youth and, courtesy of an overly generous central bank, freely monetized purchasing power from an increasingly over-valued asset. This strategy has worked so brilliantly in recent years that American consumers have now thrown all caution to the wind and opted for floating-rate liabilities at precisely the wrong time — just when the interest rate cycle is about to turn.

History tells us that carry trades end when central bank tightening cycles begin. The Fed knows full well what’s at risk in the biggest carry trade of them all. Little wonder the US central bank wants to be "measured" in normalizing its policy rate. In my jaundiced view, it will take nothing short of a miracle to extricate the self-indulgent American consumer from this mess.

-END-

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

With supposedly superb job news, the US stock market action was disappointing. It even closed lower than where it opened. Throw in positive news from Intel after the close last evening and the action was particularly poor. The DOW gained 47 to 10,243 and the DOG rose 18 to 1978.

One reason there is little follow through on stock market rallies:

June 2, 2004

According to the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, corporate insider have been selling stock at a furious pace throughout 2004. Fourteen billion dollars worth in the first four quarters. David Coleman states that insider sales have NEVER been higher, since the company started tracking the data in 1971.

Crude oil fell 79 cents per barrel to $38.49.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed's "Desk" was closed today June 4th 2004. Due to a $2 Billion expiration, the repo pool fell a bit to $36.85 Billion. The 30-day moving average of the repo pool remains in its long up-slope, providing gentle support to the DOW. The DOW sits near 10,200 right along with its own 30-day ma, acting quite content ahead of what everybody says is a "certain" 25 basis point rate rise by the Fed at the June 29th meeting. The DOW may be the only smooth operation the Fed has these days.

An interesting M1 money stock Fed chart can be found below:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1/25

It reveals that the Fed poured about $130 Billion into the markets just after 9/11/2001 in order to float the banking system which had been damaged by the inability to deliver checks via air since aircraft were grounded.

Another interesting thing here are the three ongoing M1 money stock spikes in 2004 which seem to correspond to the oil price swings we are experiencing. Based only on the realities of these two events, we can imagine the Fed is under great stress these days due to oil and the upcoming rate rise. But the Fed has BEEN under stress ever since an event late in 2002.

Big Bang

The Big Bang of today's monetary universe began when SECTREAS Paul O'Neill resigned without a replacement. Everything we see today is a direct result of that cataclysmic action. Resigned? No sane President would terminate a Secretary of the Treasury, losing the ESF's power, thus leaving the country naked on the gold and currency exchange battlefield...and yet that is exactly what George Bush did.

On that fateful day in Dec 2002 the dollar and Euro were at parity. Gold then shot straight up until the day John Snow was confirmed because with no SECTREAS the ESF's gold operations could not Constitutionally be implemented. The DIVG topped 362, the Euro ran up over 28%, gold over 30% while the major currency dollar index fell 12.6%. As soon as Snow arrived the indexes retracted a bit but they never really recovered. It was a disaster of the first magnitude from the Fed's point of view.

The Fed now faces a rate rise regime on top of all their other troubles. A single trading house (JPMorgan) with over $27 Trillion in notional interest rate derivatives. We can imagine that very few of those contracts are "long".

No doubt the Fed will hammer gold in order to "send a message" not to go there. During that "message" phase will be the exact moment in time to buy the metal.

Mike

Houston’s Dan Norcini with the COT analysis:

Commitments of Traders Analysis for week ending 6-5-2004

Examining this week’s latest release of the Commitments of Traders data contains a bit of a surprise. Looks like I could not have been more wrong in my assessment in last week’s commentary regarding the low point in the total number of commercial shorts being behind us. They continued to shed some 1,196 short contracts and were net buyers for the week. I will say however that the rate of their reduction in short positions has slowed considerably. Here are the numbers detailing the short positions held by the cartel beginning with the peak reached on April 6, 2004:

4/6/2004... 243,320

4/12/2004... 239,183

4/20/2004... 182,891

4/27/2004... 168,845

5/4/2004... 161,564

5/11/2004... 153,147

5/18/2004... 144,769

5/25/2004... 138,156

6/1/2004... 136,960

I still feel we are very close to seeing the end of cartel short liquidation. It is simply against their motif operandi to sit back and allow gold to rally without intervening. With open interest falling this week, I could not understand the price capping near $400 that obviously took place. That kind of selling in the face of clear technical buy signals seemed to me to have the trademark of the gold cartel written all over it. My question has been – If not them doing the selling – then whom?

I had ruled out the funds since in all the years I have been trading, I have NEVER seen the funds mass on the opposite side of such clear technical signals as gold had generated last week. Technical indicators all turned over from deeply oversold regions and had generated mechanical buy signals; for the technically based funds to be selling would be an anomaly of the highest degree. As a matter of fact, I was sure that the funds were covering shorts as well as adding new longs since the 10 Day, 20 Day and 40 Day Moving Averages had been violated to the upside these past weeks. That is normally enough to shove the funds out and force them to begin to cover or at least stop selling. Still, I could not confirm that until today’s release when the mystery became clear.

It needed some substantial firepower to offset that fund buying of the last week which all totaled was an amazing 9,774 contracts, 8,194 of which were shorts that were covered. We got that firepower from the commercial category alright – but it was from the commercial longs, not the cartel. That explains the continued drop in open interest. Selling by the commercial long category absorbed THE ENTIRETY of net buying that took place this week. When I say entirety, I mean, "entirety" – new fund longs; old fund shorts that were covered; cartel shorts that were covered and small spec shorts that were covered! All of it – a grand total of 12,316 commercial longs were closed out.

I remarked last week that the commercial longs had amassed the greatest number of long positions that they have held in more than 2 ½ years. Many of those longs were being added as the market headed down from 425 beginning back in early April with the bulk of them being added as gold dropped beneath 385 and headed down to the 370 region. This group of traders apparently decided that $20 - $25 profits on those longs was a pretty nice gift and apparently unloaded this past week as gold moved up. They are still sitting on a fairly sizeable number of longs even with the selling they did through Tuesday of this week and thus are a force to contend with should they continue to liquidate. I would expect them to stop selling if gold were to descend much further since that is the region where they did their heaviest buying in the past few weeks. What is more likely to take place is that they continue their scale up selling program gradually reducing their longs as the market moves up. That is the professional manner of covering positions – notice that they are doing it into strength in gold unlike the cartel which had a recent habit of making it quite obvious that they were going to sell in quantity when they decided a take down job on gold was necessary.

This in conjunction with expected capping action from the cartel tells me that we most definitely need to see open interest totals increase in the weeks ahead. Falling open interest in a market is not a healthy sign as it indicates a lack of enthusiasm. To generate any sizeable and sustainable price rally in gold, we will need to see the specs begin to re-enter on the long side and the fund shorts to continue to exit. What is most encouraging to us gold bulls however is that the funds have ample room to pour onto the long side again as do the small specs who more than likely will be chasing the market higher as is their habit. Still, we need them to offset commercial selling that is inevitable.

The kicker however is that open interest has continued to decline as gold has moved down since Tuesday this week. We have seen a reduction of more than 26,000 contracts bringing us down to 226,553 as of yesterday - levels last seen in August 2003. It would appear that some speculators have grown discouraged with gold’s relatively lackluster performance given current supportive fundamentals. These frustrated specs and momentum funds then trot off looking for greener pastures in which to play, draining liquidity and siphoning off the capital necessary to generate bullish enthusiasm. While they are busy chasing coffee or some other commodity du jour, gold is left to languish. Of course that is exactly the game plan by the financial powers that be. Beat the dickens out of the yellow metal and then trot out their shills do decry its lackluster performance as evidence that all is well with the economy and those gold bugs and their cries of "the sky is falling" are nothing but demented madmen and women. Once that is done, the illusion can continue and it’s let the good times roll. The question is, "what will they do when the gig is up"?

Today’s action however in gold appears to have a chance to change all that and might signal renewed spec interest is in the cards. The swift reaction away from support near 385 in spite of a "dollar bullish" jobs report, bodes very well for gold next week. Now that the jobs report is out of the way, the next event the market can look forward to will be the FOMC meeting at the end of June. I am of the opinion that for the dollar to get any kind of sustained bounce, the Fed will need to surprise the market with a 50 basis point rate hike; something I am convinced they will not do. As a matter of fact, I do not expect them to hike at all. Obviously that cuts across the grain of thinking that is currently dominating most analysts but I feel that until the Fed gets proof that crude oil prices are coming down and STAYING DOWN, they will not risk upsetting the apple cart. Regardless, we shall see.

The point is that the market has already discounted a rate hike of 25 basis points into the dollar. Traders typically, "Buy the rumor and sell the fact". If the Fed does indeed hike at the end of the month, the dollar might get a momentary knee jerk bid upward, but I do not expect that to last very long. Thus, any obstacle in the path of gold moving higher should quickly disappear once we are through with this idiocy of hanging on every word that comes out of the FOMC transcript. It is become personally sickening to me to observe grown adults sitting with their fingers on a "enter" key ready to slap their buy or sell orders over the internet as soon as Chairman Greenspan or his lackeys serve up the latest fodder. One would think that successful traders and investors would do some study and analysis of their own and not be so easily led around like blind, dumb sheep by those with questionable motives. Of course in today’s America, that is asking too much. Talk about a group of lemmings.

Dan Norcini
dnorcini@earthlink.net

Gold sales up 21% in India

Speaking of India:

Dear Bill,

As I was expecting rebound yesterday around closing time which didn't happen but I am happy that this time I saw clear weakness in metals for Wednesday and Thursday but I didn't wanted investors to loss opportunity of weak prices in metal and its stocks that is why I sent alert news to buy on Thursday. I am sure those who have bought on Thursday must be smiling now but according to me, for big smiling time is pending for metal investors, which is starting from next week.

Now finally after great struggle of 2 months gold will start new journey from next week. As I said that next week looks exciting and yes, I am sure my next week newsletter will be most exciting one. From here now not looking back for next 27 Day.

This week newsletter recommended orange juice and currently ORANGE JUICE IS DOING FINE.

Thanks & God Bless

Mahendra

http://www.mahendraprophecy.com

Mahenda got his reversal with his first inclination it be today was dead on. Now, if he is right about gold taking out $400 next week…that would be loverlie!

For you Ferdi Lips fans – his speech in Tokyo:

Tokyo Speech.pdf

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Tokyo.pdf

China input:

If anyone really believes the 'fluff' that China is slowing down better think again.

From a piece in today's People's Daily (China) Online - "Statistics showed that 50 million air conditioners, 65 million TV sets, and 23 million refrigerators were manufactured in China in 2003, and most of the products were sold in the domestic market." Can you imagine how many cars these folks are going to be driving soon? God help us all if they become fond of SUV's? Unbelievable - the goon squad keeps telling anyone who will listen that oil is always going to be imminently 10 bucks cheaper? Anyone accusing me of saying the glass is half empty - I give up, you got me! Perhaps we should focus on the bright side of things - we will all soon be able to buy a 'knock off' Lincoln Navigator for less than 5 g's. The tricky part will be 300 dollar fill ups when you are unemployed or working for minimum wage at Walmart. Bummer.

best
Rob

Something to ponder on oil AND silver:

Bill,

As I have been watching your daily blog and seeing more attention to oil both in your forum and others I am further convinced that our free market interests for commodities and indeed for predicting the capitulation of all these Wall street commodity scams will be best determined by study of the most important commodity of all – oil. It is after all the commodity on which our entire way of life and its associated assets are valued - from Real Estate and Income to Stocks and Bonds. At the moment the average joe is convinced this way of life is secure – so the metals are in the toilet.

We have all discussed before and concluded that this scam to end all scams will finally come to an end with a default in the critical commodities. As we know this reality is almost upon us with silver (perhaps even months away) – the point when above ground stocks available to the market come to an end, and then because of the ongoing supply demand deficit…….

“Everyone who wants or needs Silver must do with less - coz supply just ain’t there anymore to meet demand at the same rate”.

At this juncture in world history I am fascinated that in fact the detailed study of Peak Oil production is placing it in exactly the same position as that in Silver. “How’s that you say – there is heaps of Oil left but I do agree above ground silver is almost gone?”

The graph below is the product of ASPO research and includes oil and gas. It clearly shows that as soon as we peak in hydrocardon production and start our irreversible decline …..

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Dave0604.gif]

Everyone who wants or needs Oil must do with less - coz supply just ain’t there anymore to meet demand at the same rate”.

This is conservative - there are some oil industry luminaries such as Matthew Simmons - Chariman of Simmons & Co who are voicing real concerns of a potential production collapse in Saudi Arabia of up to 30-40% within a few years! This is not factored into the above chart. Refer: http://media.globalpublicmedia…rview.CSIS.2004-02-24.ram

Remembering that these above curves are not theory any more - the bottom line is that post peak - (which may be later this year) - from which point we all must do with less oil year by year by year - and I dont mean just because it is more expensive - I mean because there is simply less of it to go around - Do you think the average joe is going to think his way of life is secure? We need only take a look back to the 70s for that answer. The problem however is that the 1970s were a dress rehursal – this time it will be the real thing!.

Our entire financial system is supported and perpetuated by the phenomenon of cheap energy which has facilitated growth beyond the imagination of many – a system which has enabled growth in debt and increase in the money supply predicated on the endless increasing supply of cheap energy and other resources. My guess is when this illusion comes crashing down the markets will run way ahead of reality and really be in deep trouble. We need only wait for constrained oil supply to be self evident and the game will be over for Wall Street and the Federal Reserve. I suspect that the Islamic Nationalists whose existing governments own a majority of the remaining oil reserves are well aware of this reality - just as they were in 1973 when US production peaked.

So I would imagine that to keep the current financial system alive as this unflods the US Government will attempt to explain away the oil supply problem with "Terrorist action", whilst continuing to pump prime the money aggregates and openly deny the depletion of the key commodity on which the system is perpetuated. All the time still attempting to wash out the metals markets to shake out the physical from unsteady hands at redicuously low prices. And why? because when this financial system crashes what do you think the next one will be based on? The machinations never end, and the rabbit hole is deep indeed.

So my guess is that Oil and Silver will be hitting the wall at just about the same time over the next year or two - so we are getting awful close to permanent liftoff in the metals markets and terminal problems for all other US markets. Its all pretty clear when you look at it from an oil perspective, and you dont even need to be Mahendra to connect the dots!

Cheers
David

The gold shares rebounded nicely to end the week on a positive note. At least, the higher cap gold stocks did. Many of the explorations and smaller golds are drifting into oblivion again. Companies like Samex Mining (65 cents, down 5 cents on the day only 60 cents bid at the close) are steals down here and nobody cares.

The XAU moved 1.69 higher to 87.87, while the HUI gained 4.48 to 193.84. At one point the HUI was close to 195 where it encountered technical resistance.

Seems to me gold and silver have done their thing on the downside. Next week ought to bring us some more smiles.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

India buying; Where are specs?

Friday, June 04, 2004

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $ 7.38, PM $7.75, with world gold at $ 388.30 and $387.60. High: very ample for legal imports. The rupee closed at its highest for almost a month today. Notwithstanding the season, India will be on active buyer on this basis.

Softness in the yen this morning did not appear to interest the TOCOM gold futures buyers: volume slumped 67% to equal only 12,580 Comex lots, and open interest slipped the equivalent of 320 Comex. The active contract closed down 9 yen, although world gold stood 50c higher than the NY close at trading’s end. The Trade House short, reported by TOCOM with a one day lag, is now the highest in many months. Often this is taken as the reciprocal of the Spec long. However, in view of the erratic fluctuations in volume, one wonders if sporadic trading on TOCOM by Western Funds is somehow involved.

Yesterday, of course, saw NY gold erase an initial rally attempt and be smashed down to a new closing low, for the third day in succession. While some observers continue to mention an Australian seller, there is clearly the feeling that opportunistic and predatory sellers have appeared, and have had some success in evicting longs. Also, that physical buyers have returned. UBS comments:

"In New York yesterday gold opened around $391.50 …But then heavy selling of the AUD saw gold come under pressure…In thin volume, one US Investment bank was able to push gold below support of 390.00 and stops were triggered and traded to a low of 387.45 75. Good scale down buying by European banks and commission houses supported the yellow metal from falling further." (JB emphasis)

Standard London echoes:

Gold opened in TOCOM at 391.50 bid and briefly touched an early high of 391.70 bid and was quickly under pressure …the Australian currency was quickly losing ground against the US dollar. Gold was quickly pressing against near term support of 390 and physical off take kept gold treading water…. COMEX gold started…firm …traded to the day’s high of 392.60 bid before good-sized selling in the market just as the US dollar made moderate advances... The market was further pressured by long liquidation …gold tumbled to the day’s low of 387.90 offer after hitting some stops building below 390."

In retrospect, when last the Indian premiums were extreme, at the mid May lows, a good deal of shorting occurred in NY. Perhaps this has happened again. Refco is unquestionably right in identifying a notable structural weakness in recent rally attempts:

"Our concern for gold is focused on speculative buying interest; in particular the lack of it. Declining open interest into recent price declines suggests spec short covering is giving way to some long liquidation"

But gold has an alternative champion in Eastern physical off take. The Western Bulls, when eventually tempted in, could buy a huge amount -approaching 300 tonnes – of Comex paper, if they chose to return to the recent high exposure.

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

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June 4 - Gold $390.60 up $2.90 - Silver $5.78 up 7 cents

Today Was The Turnaround Day

Zitat

"The world has no room for cowards. We must all be ready somehow to toil, to suffer, to die. And yours is not the less noble because no drum beats before you when you go out into your daily battlefields, and no crowds shout about your coming when you return from your daily victory or defeat." --Robert Lewis Stevenson

The US jobs number came in perfectly for The Working Group on Financial Markets, not too hot, not too cold. Just what the doctor and Wall Street ordered:

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers added 248,000 workers to payrolls in May, more than forecast, helped by the biggest gain in manufacturing employment in almost six years. The economy has now recouped all the jobs lost since the recession ended in November 2001. The unemployment rate held at 5.6 percent.
The increase follows revised gains of 346,000 jobs in April and 353,000 in March that were larger than estimated last month, the Labor Department said in Washington. Manufacturing employment rose the most since August 1998 and hours worked at factories were the highest since October 2000. Service and construction employment rose. –END-

Of course, the upwardly revised back numbers gets the Bush Administration closer to the new jobs number they are looking for come election time. Whether these numbers are bogus, or not, I shall leave to others to dissect. However, the currency traders were not very impressed. The dollar fell .41 to 88.59. The euro gained .73 to 122.86. The Canadian dollar (74.03, up .62) and Aussie dollar (69.47, up .73) were particularly strong. The 30-year fell gave up a half point on the day after running up a bit early on.

Panicky gold longs dumped their position right after the jobs number was released and gold fell all the way down to $383.70. Morgan Stanley was an early seller and then turned aggressive buyer when gold firmed up very quickly following the opening deluge of selling. The reversal close gives gold a healthy outlook for next week. The close back above $390 was also very constructive.

Some good news to report on the fundamental front. One of our better dealer sources reports a robust physical market. Premiums are the highest since the Y2K buying binge of years back. They are running 1 ¼ to 1 ½ percent from refiners. He used to be able to buy gold at a discount to spot. No more. Even with these premiums many refiners are reluctant to part with the bullion inventories in anticipation of higher prices in the weeks ahead. The market is that tight and the boys and girls refining gold know it.

One other unusual comment from this dealer – a rare one –which sounds more like me than a conservative man who is 70. He says the people he speaks to are coming to the realization that the markets are "phony." Not just gold, but all the markets. The rank and file have become very wary of anything coming out of Washington and Wall Street.

The gold open interest finally rose - to 226,553, up 1,220 contracts.

Gold finally accompanied the euro higher. For the past week there was no correlation at all to the dollar. Gold only moved within the dictates of what The Gold Cartel wanted it to do. Note:

June dollar
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/64

August gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/84

Your fellow Café member Richard has it nailed when it comes to gold market analysis:

Now I get it! when oil was at $40-$42--there was systemic risk-so the Cabal came down so hard that they even abrogated the weak dollar strong gold link--now that the totally fabricated job number-with 2 upward revisions is out--and the stock mkt isn't at risk to crash-the $/gold link is reinstated--so gold will be allowed to rise a bit here--but within the prison confines set by the Cabal.

FLASH! STOP THE PRESSES!

Birth/death model accounted for 190K of the new jobs today--has to do with new businesses created-old businesses closing.

-END-

Silver dropped a quick dime on the jobs news, however, it came back even more quickly than gold did, moving up on the day in short order. Hard for me seeing silver staying down here much longer. Then again, I have said that before.

The silver open interest fell 2049 contracts. It probably tells us spec longs exited who have been long all the way up above $8 and all the way down again and just couldn’t take it any longer.

The Comex warehouse stocks rose close to 200,000 ounces.

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The Mother of All Carry Trades

Stephen Roach (New York)

Think again. Debt service measures published by the Federal Reserve are already flashing warning signs. The Fed now has two official gauges of household debt burdens — a narrow measure of mortgage and installment debt payments and a broader measure of financial obligations, which also includes auto lease payments, residential rents, and homeowners’ insurance and property tax payments. Even with interest rates at 40-year lows, both of these debt burden proxies are in the upper decile of historical experience. The reason: the sheer magnitude of the stock of outstanding indebtedness.

weiter....

http://www.morganstanley.com/G…20040604-fri.html#anchor0

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Jun. 4, 2004. 05:40 PM

Pension fund pooh-poohs gold merger

BY STEVE ERWIN
CANADIAN PRESS

Canada's second largest pension fund plans to vote against a proposed merger of two mid-sized Canadian gold producers, which are both the objects of rival bids by U.S. miners.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/…50072197&col=968705923364

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...

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http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0604065n.html

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FOR: KINROSS GOLD CORPORATION

TSX SYMBOL: K
NYSE SYMBOL: KGC

JUNE 4, 2004 - 16:58 ET

Kinross Gold Corporation: Press Release

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - Jun 4, 2004) - Kinross Gold
Corporation (TSX:K; NYSE:KGC) ("Kinross") announced that it has
acquired 205,000 common shares of Cumberland Resources Ltd.
("Cumberland") through the facilities of the Toronto Stock
Exchange. As a result of this transaction, Kinross has acquired
an aggregate of 5,642,500 common shares of Cumberland
representing 10.37% of the issued and outstanding shares of
Cumberland.

-30-

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
Kinross Gold Corporation
Robert M. Buchan
President and Chief Executive Officer
(416) 365-5650
or
Kinross Gold Corporation
Christopher T. Hill
Vice President Investor Relations
(416) 365-7254
or
Kinross Gold Corporation
Tracey M. Thom
Manager Investor Relations
(416) 365-1362
(416) 363-6622 (FAX)
info@kinross.com

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/images/gslogo.jpg]

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1086380059.php

Gold Cot Report - Futures & Options Combined

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/images/gslogo.jpg]

COT Gold Report - June 4, 2004

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1086380059.php

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http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1086380384.php

Silver Cot Report - Futures & Options Combined

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.silverseek.com/images/logo.PNG]

http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1086380384.php

COT Silver Report - June 4, 2004

Die Regierung gibt vor die jungen Menschen vor allem möglichen Unbill schützen zu wollen

Vor dem Rauchen, vor dem Alkohol, vor harten Drogen.

Warum werden diese Menschen nicht vor der Gewinnsucht und vor dem Wucher (33% Jahreszins) der Banken geschützt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/images/gslogo.jpg]

http://news.goldseek.com/SFG/1086359613.php

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/SFG/Benson.JPG]Wither the Dollar
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/SFG/sfg.JPG]By: Richard Benson, SFGroup

Virtually all market analysts and financial writers are single-mindedly focused on the Fed raising the price of money and credit. The market is constantly told to fear the Fed tightening. Meanwhile, we are in the middle of one of the largest increases on record in the quantity of money as measured by M3.
From the start of 2004, M3 has increased at an 11% rate, or almost $400 billion. 
At this rate of growth, M3 should surpass $10 Trillion over the next 12 months. While the Fed already has the markets and future interest rates priced for a ¼ point rise in the Fed Funds rate in June, and another ¼ point rise in August, the markets are not focused on the inflationary consequences of the massive increase in the supply of money or its downward effect on the value of the dollar.

The Fed has turned the “financial bubble machine” back on. First, they wanted to put a quick end to the unwinding of the “reflation trade” which was causing a spike in bond prices and a strengthening in the dollar. This put the financial markets close, once again, to a crash. Second, the Fed needs to play the last policy cards – beneficial to the economy and the current Administration – to use the direct creation of money to: 1) tempt a reopening of the reflation trade; 2) keep inflation running higher than nominal interest rates; 3) push real interest rates even lower; and 4) use the raw creation of dollars to weaken the dollar.

Given the law of supply and demand, a rapidly rising supply of dollars will lower their value, if everything else remains the same.

The Fed has just created $400 Billion of fresh money so surprise, surprise – the value of the dollar is moving down!

Moreover, everything isn’t all “smiles and roses” for the dollar. The fundamentals causing the falling value of the dollar are: i) record trade deficits and inflation rising faster than interest rates; ii) a slowing U.S. economy as the tax cuts and mortgage REFI’s are petering out; iii) Europeans unable to cut interest rates on the Euro below 2% now that their inflation is up to 2.5%,; and, most critically iv) explosive U.S. money growth.

Why is the Fed so interested in letting the dollar go? Other than for political reasons, a falling dollar helps domestic firms compete abroad and actually hire more Americans. Moreover, a falling dollar means that more Americans are likely to buy goods made in America. In addition, we are entering vacation season and travel is a big business. More foreigners will come to America to avoid the “bomby” weather in Athens for the Olympics and many Americans will remain in the 50 states for their summer holiday.

For the short term, it’s likely that a falling dollar will boost top line revenues for U.S. businesses and increase their bottom line earnings as foreign currency profits show up as more dollars. More money, revenues, and profits, can help keep the equity markets “juiced up” through the election and until early 2005, when the Fed will need to respond to inflation concerns in a serious way. Indeed, as long as the Fed doesn’t have to take any real action until after the election, who really cares that a falling dollar and rapid money growth will encourage an increase in inflation? Savers will care, but they just don’t count in a finance economy!

The massive boost to money growth will spill over and be felt in the prices set in the financial and commodity markets. When oil prices are high, and the Fed’s only response is to accommodate, it is unlikely that higher oil prices will result in much of a cut back in the spending on higher priced beef, chicken, milk, ice cream, copper, cement or anything else. With the Federal Reserve dedicated to getting the rise in nominal GDP up to 10%, and keeping M3 growth double-digit, it is inevitable that general prices will rise. Indeed, double-digit money growth is far more consistent with a CPI heading towards 5%, than holding at 2%.

When we examine money growth since 1995, we are reminded of the Wicked Witch of the West who cried out in a shrill voice, “I’m melting”. For the average American pocketbook, this “melting and shrinking feeling” means we will need many more dollars to buy gas, food, 100 shares of stock, or a house. Thank God the bank has just extended the line on our credit cards and sent us blank checks for our home equity loan.

At some point, the markets will pick up on what money growth actually means for present and future inflation, and realize the Fed is getting “way behind the curve” in raising interest rates. When this occurs, we will position for a big “Humpty Dumpty” fall in the dollar. All the Fed has to do is keep the markets focused on everything but the truth until after the election.

We plan to vote in November but when it comes to the financial markets, we will be ready to vote with our feet at any time.

-- Posted Friday, June 4 2004

- Richard Benson, SFGroup, is a widely published author on securitization and specialty finance, and a sought after speaker at financing conferences on raising equity for mid-market companies.

Put/Call Ratio Soaring

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By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research

-- Posted Friday, June 4 2004

Zitat

If you look at each of these arrows, you will note that the stock markets had to fall hard in order to spawn the great fear necessary to drive up a major spike in the PCR 21dma. Yet when we examine our current PCR spike the stock markets have certainly not fallen sharply, but fear is still soaring. Weird!

The only other time in the past decade when we have witnessed such a massive PCR spike of similar magnitude was during the 1998 financial crises which rocked the US equity markets. As currencies devalued, leveraged hedge funds like Long-Term Capital Management imploded, and the very stability of the entire global financial system was believed to be in jeopardy by the Fed at the time, pessimism and therefore put buying went ballistic. It took a brutal 19.3% S&P 500 correction over only 31 trading days in the summer of 1998 to generate the huge PCR spike from 0.58 to 0.92, a 59% increase.

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http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1086370829.php

Put/Call Ratio Soaring

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By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research

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Mahendra lag wohl wieder einmal mehr richtig mit seiner Gold Preis Voraussage!

Vor 2 Tagen im GATA Bericht angekündigt, heute eingetroffen.

Für nächste Woche sieht Mahendra Gold die 400.- Dollar Marke überschreiten, um danach seinen Aufwärtstrend weiter fortzusetzen, ohne dass sich Gold wieder die 400.- von unten ansehen wird.

Falls er nächte Woche auch wieder richtig mit seinen Gold Preis Prognosen liegen sollte, überlege ich mir ersthaft die Aussagen dieses Mannes zukünftig etwas ernster zu nehmen als bisher.

"TODAYS DOWNWARD TREND I WAS EXPECTING TOMORROW BUT HEPPENED TODAY, SO BIG TURN AROUND IN METAL FINALLY WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY... WATCH THATS WHAT PLANETS ARE INDICATING ME...
NOW WE ARE READY AND AFTER DOWNWARD TREND OF 40 DAYS NOW I AM PREDICTIONG MAJOR RISE IN GOLD AND FINALLY IT WILL CROSS 400 MARK DURING NEXT WEEK."

THANKS & GOD BLESS

MAHENDRA

http://www.mahendraprophecy.com

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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Noch eine Meldung zum "Wirtschaftsaufschwung" in Deutschland!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.reuters.de/images/reuters.gif]

http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=523398&section=news

Bau-Arbeitgeber fordern Mehrarbeit ohne Lohnausgleich

Freitag 4 Juni, 2004 14:25 CET

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Berlin (Reuters) - Die Arbeitgeber des deutschen Baugewerbes wollen bei der diesjährigen Tarifrunde eine Arbeitszeitverlängerung ohne Lohnausgleich und eine Senkung der Urlaubskosten erreichen.

Der Verhandlungsführer der Arbeitgeber, Werner Kahl, sagte am Freitag in Berlin, die Baubranche plädiere für Öffnungsklauseln, um die wöchentliche Arbeitszeit von 39 auf 42 Stunden ohne Lohnausgleich und zeitlich befristet zu verlängern. "Das bedeutet für uns eine Lohnsenkung von sieben Prozent." Dies schaffe Entlastungsspielraum für die tariftreuen Unternehmen der kriselnden Branche und könne Arbeitsplätze sichern. Kahl schloss eine Lohnerhöhung aus und äußerte sich skeptisch zu Vorschlägen der IG BAU, mit einer faktischen Lohn-Nullrunde und einer bestimmten Beschäftigungsprämie Stellen zu sichern.

Die Tarifverhandlungen für die rund 800.000 Beschäftigten der Branche beginnen am 28. Juni in Berlin und dürften ganz im Zeichen der Arbeitsplatz-Sicherung stehen. Arbeitgeber und Gewerkschaft haben allerdings noch sehr unterschiedliche Auffassungen darüber, wie dies geschehen soll.

ARBEITGEBER: SEHEN KEINEN VERTEILUNGSSPIELRAUM VON 2,2 VH

"Beschäftigungssicherung bedeutet für uns kurz gesprochen unbezahlte Mehrarbeit, ein neuer Leistungslohn und Urlaub"

sagte Arbeitgeber-Vertreter Kahl. Diese Punkte müssten diskutiert werden. Dabei gehe es darum, ein neues Leistungslohnsystem zu etablieren, das den Beschäftigten mehr Geld bei guter Arbeit bescheren soll, aber weniger Geld bei schlechter Arbeit.

Um die Urlaubskosten der Firmen zu senken, sollten entweder der Anspruch von 30 Urlaubstagen gekürzt werden oder das Urlaubsgeld.

Die IG BAU hatte vorgeschlagen, die Lohnerhöhung von 2,2 Prozent, die sie für erreichbar hält, zum Großteil in einen Fonds einzubezahlen. Das Geld soll an diejenigen Arbeitgeber zurückfließen, die Mitarbeiter zwölf Monate am Stück beschäftigen. "Die IG BAU sieht einen Verteilungsspielraum von 2,2 Prozent. Wir können diesen Verteilungsspielraum überhaupt nicht erkennen", sagte Kahl. Die Arbeitgeber seien aber zu Verhandlungen über die Vorschläge der Gewerkschaft bereit.