[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
Teil II
From a subscription based oil news service sent by Café member Mark:
"I dabble in the oil tanker markets. Something few folks know is that the breaking price for tankers is at all time high-ship breaking runs around 400-450 a ton-the worldwide ban on single hull tankers has pushed the scrapping tonnage up exponentially as 2007 is the closing date-comparatively there is little scrap vessel tonnage left."
Shanghai. (Interfax-China) - The Chinese government plans to upgrade its local oil fleet to bring its imported crude oil delivery capacity up to 50 mln tons by 2005. The fleet will mainly deal with imports from the Middle East and West Africa, said a senior official with the Ministry of Communications.
Four leading domestic carriers, the China Shipping Group (CSG), the China Ocean Shipping Group Corp. (COSCO), the China Merchants Group (CMG) and the the Nanjing Tanker Corp. (NTC) under the China Changjiang National Shipping Group (CSC), will collaborate with the two local oil majors, PetroChina and Sinopec, in forming the fleet.
The target is to raise the proportion of foreign oil shipped to China by Chinese tankers to 50% in 2005, when approximately 100 mln tons of foreign oil will be brought into China. Currently, Chinese oil carriers only ship around 10% of the foreign oil imported to China each year……..
The International Energy Agency said on Tuesday that the rapid acceleration of economic growth and surges in Chinese domestic consumption will lead to world oil demand rising by 1.95 million barrels per day. This is 270,000 bpd more than what was forecast in April by the Paris based International Energy Agency (IEA). World oil demand is set to rise to as much as 80.6 million bpd, or 226,5 billion tonnes annually. The increase in the IEA's forecast is equivalent to 92,4 million tonnes annually. Assuming that a major share of the extra oil will be transported by tankers, the employment outlook for the world tanker fleet is looking positive.
According to the FT, global oil refinery capacity could be stretched to the limit if current consumption estimates are achieved. This will cause oil prices to remain above current record levels at US$40 per barrel in New York for some time to come.
US gasoline demand, which is currently running at 5% above last year's levels, and soaring Chinese oil usage are the two main factors driving the higher consumption forecasts from the IEA. Not helped by spring refinery shutdowns, possibly offset by a lower demand for heating oil in Europe and the USA, oil prices continue to rise. Opec admitted this morning that it was powerless to act, and despite intentions to increase production, oil prices are heading for all-time highs. The situation is expected to tighten further in the run-up to Christmas, the peak time for oil usage in the developed world.
-END-
Does that sound like China is slowing down? MIDAS recently reported of a Chinese task force in Chile looking to substantially increase their copper production and supply in the years to come. What slowdown?
Anyone heard of an "official" confirmation of the bin Laden gold reward tape? Answer so far: NO! Figures!
From the second edition of THE Hedge Book, the Virtual Metals/Haliburton hedging survey on behalf of Mitsui:
Zitat
"Q1 04 saw another large fall in the global gold hedge book, with the Hedge Impact falling by 2.5 Moz to 68.3 Moz."
Which means the gold producers covered as gold ran up to $430, which once again proves GATA’s point there was an organized attempt by The Gold Cartel to keep gold from blowing through $430. In the past, The Gold Cartel would use the cover of gold producer selling to explain why the gold price was falling, or not rising as it should. They can’t do that anymore and get away with it. As we know, the gold open interest rose to around 306,000, a record. So who were those guys who were the sellers, if not even partially gold producers who were instead BUYING? The Gold Cartel and friends of course!
From GATA’s Sid Reynolds in Australia last evening:
Hi Bill,
2 good things to report:
1)In Australian $ gold has barely changed in last month ie around A$550/oz ($A has fallen from 80c to 68c)
2) With gold and silver staying down, it can't have all been paper manipulation, else as you've pointed out repeatedly any paper manipulation without physical would result in immediate recovery from any falls. So this means the cartel must have used a huge amount of physical which means they surely will run in next month.
Regards, Sid
On Saudi official sector gold supply:
Hi Bill,
Found some info. on the WGC site regarding Saudi central bank gold reserves. Saudi Arabia started reporting or acquiring gold reserves in 1957 which is quoted at 14 metric tons fine gold for that year. The figure reached 96 tons in 1973, 141 tons in 1978 and remained consistent, peaking at 143 tons 1998 -- the last reported year. See Adobe pg. 20 for the Saudi statistics. The reference at the bottom of the page is the IMF (International Monetary Fund).
Gregg
http://www.gold.org/pub_archive/pdf/Rs23.pdf
-END-
Mahendra sent this to his members and to myself for Café members:
Dear Bill/Members,
This note I am writing after have good time in meditations and off-course after sending this email I will enjoy more in peace.
I was expecting upward move in metals from Tuesday to Thursday in current week but didn't happen except Wednesday open very strong. According to my newsletter tomorrow should be weak trading day for metal but here I want make small correction that in Asia and Europe metal will trade weak but not in last two hours of New York trading that is why I am writing to my members and Bill. Here (Santa Barbara) I have lot of extra free time so taking advantage of it and doing deeper study in astrology and planetary movements. Yesterday and today I did in-depth study on metals and it’s current movement because metal community has lot of faith in my work and it is my duty to guide them when time and scenario is most uncertain. So here is out come and final predictions:
Moon may help tomorrow - We haven't seen upward trend during this week instant of strong Moon so I don't see downward also on Friday especially in last two hours because Moon is playing hidden game that did on Wednesday when gold/silver open strong and closed weak. Friday metal stocks and metals should do exceedingly well in last two hours in New-York.
Sun transit - Any time tomorrow or during next gold will bottom-out and once again I am reminding you that these prices will be history. Also other planetary combinations are favouring metal so metal will approach toward to new high soon.
From 14 April to 15 May was bad period for everybody even those who were not in market.
I WILL WRITE MORE IN DETAIL ON MONDAY BUT STILL I RECOMMEND VERY STRONGLY PUTTING MONEY IN METAL AT THIS LEVEL.
HOLD -IF YOU CAN,
BUY IF YOU HAVE CASH,
BUT DON’T SELL AT THIS POINT,IF YOU HAVE 1% FAITH IN ME. I ADVISED SAME LAST YEAR WHEN GOLD DROPPED TO $318. Time will be answer.
REMINDER: YOU ALL KNOW THAT FOR 2004 I AM VERY POSITIVE IN SILVER, OIL AND OTHER METALS and NEGATIVE ON STOCK MARKET and ALL OTHER CURRENCIES AGAINST GOLD.
I hope you will understand my message on gold.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra
http://www.mahendraprophecy.com
The Netherland's Eric Hommelberg:
Hi Bill,
Ever saw such a bearish attitude towards Gold and its shares ? People are really panicking out of their Gold stocks lately thereby pushing the Gold shares into its deepest over-sold territory in 6 years ! I can’t help but to think that a we’re at the verge of a very powerful upward move in Gold shares . When people ask me what to do I always tell them to take a few steps back and look at the big picture. You’ll notice that :
1 - Stocks never tend to stay either in deeply oversold or in deeply overbought area for a long period of time.
2 - A deeply oversold HUI always bounces back >50% in a relative short period of time. Yes, even during the worst years of the bear market in Gold this was the case ! See chart below !
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/LaunchPadA.gif]
3 – Last time we’ve witnessed a severe oversold condition in the Gold shares was March 2003 when the HUI hit a bottom at 112. The Bull couldn’t be stopped until the HUI reached 258.
So where are we right now ? Indeed right in the deepest oversold territory of the last 6 years !
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/LaunchPadB.gif]
So the HUI took a dive to 163 and finds itself in the deepest oversold territory of the last 6 years. According to its own history we could witness a sharp upward correction any time soon which will launch the HUI well over 200 in a short period of time !
Best,
Eric
The gold shares were firm right from the get-go and plowed their way higher for most of the trading session. The XAU wound up at 81.21, up 1.12. The HUI finished at 177.37, up 3.84. A close above 184, Wednesday morning’s spike high, could give impetus for a powerful upside move in this VERY oversold index.
HUI, like silver, made a weekly recovery high:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8
Those buying the gold/silver shares this week into this recent bloodbath ought to come up smelling like roses in the weeks ahead.
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
Appendix
BILL COMING DUE
By PAUL THARP
The NY Post
May 14, 2004
http://www.nypost.com/business/20852.htm
May 14, 2004 --
Price tag shock is heading into stores by Memorial Day due to soaring wholesale prices, with dairy prices jumping to their highest levels in 58 years.
Retailers also are suffering a new shopping slump after their biggest boom in a year and could get hit harder when higher prices kick in, analysts say.
Labor Department data yesterday show factory and producer prices jumping more than twice the level that economists had expected - due primarily to soaring crude oil and a shortage of raw materials being devoured at China's booming factories.
Some companies want to pass added costs to consumers right away, such as paint giant Sherwin-Williams, which in the past year has spent about a quarter more for its petroleum used in paint-making.
Industry data are as grim as the government's, with the private Institute for Supply Management saying that prices paid for raw materials surged in April at their highest pace in 25 years.
The government said prices of steel-mill products, for example, are at their highest rate in 30 years, surging 6.3 percent in April alone, the biggest monthly jump since a 6.8 gain in July 1974.
The list of double-digit jumps in wholesale prices in the past year is long. Refrigerators are up 13.3 percent; animal feed, up 31.8 percent. Chicken is up 18.3 percent, cooking oil's up 28 percent and eggs are 23.3 percent higher.
Analysts blame soaring oil prices, soaring above the the $40-a-barrel level this week.
"These prices are economy wreckers," said Peter Beutel, energy analyst at Cameron Hanover. "The emergency is here and now."
Some economists fear a domino effect from the wholesale price squeeze.
Major airlines already are passing along a fuel surcharge on cargo rates, a boost of as much as one-third, and are planning similar hikes for passenger fares, say industry sources.
Producer prices in April rose 0.7 percent, higher than the 0.3 percent economists expected. Retail sales last month skidded 0.5 percent following an 8 percent gain the prior month. Consumers avoided purchases of cars and clothing - two of the largest spending categories - the Commerce Department said.
The agency, in an effort to put a calming effect on the way consumers' paychecks are being eaten up, said that if cars and clothing were carved out of its data, retail sales would have gained a healthy 9.4 percent in April.
Likewise, if food and energy wholesale prices, which account for two of the biggest spending items among consumers - were carved out, the wholesale inflation rate would have been a tame 0.2 percent.
Economists are bracing for possible surprises in today's report on how much consumer prices actually rose in April.
