ZitatAm effizientesten könnte China sein Verschuldungsproblem durch den Kauf von Gold lösen, welches zur Sicherung der Passiva der Zentralbank dienen könnte. Sollte der Goldpreis im Zuge einer Finanzkrise in den USA bis auf 1000 USD laufen, so wären die Probleme im Binnenmarkt Chinas nahezu vollständig gelöst.
Genau das machen die Chinesen bereits seit geraumer Zeit
Sie kaufen physisches GOLD!!!!!
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http://www.busrep.co.za/index.…nId=561&fArticleId=423462
NEWS
Gold says reports of Norilsk arrest are untrue
May 3, 2004
By Sherilee Bridge
Johannesburg - Gold Fields, the world's fourth-largest gold producer, confirmed at the weekend that the controlling shareholder of its newest shareholder, Norilsk Nickel, had not been arrested.
Andrew Davidson, a spokesperson for Gold Fields, said on Friday that the company had been in contact with Russia and was confident that reports that Vladimir Potanin, the head of Norilsk Nickel's parent company Interros Holding, had been arrested were untrue.
The rumours were that Potanin had been arrested in connection with Norilsk's $1.16 billion (R8 billion) acquisition of Anglo American's 20 percent stake in Gold Fields.
According to news agency Bloomberg, no warrant had been put out for Potanin's arrest, and Gold Fields was unable to confirm whether the Russian tycoon had been called in for questioning. While unconfirmed, the rumours of the arrest shaved $2 billion off the market capitalisation of Norilsk since Wednesday.
Gold Fields stock climbed on Wednesday but then slid sharply in the last two days of the week to close at R70.25 on Friday, in line with the gold mining sector's 0.61 percent decline.
This led Russian market analysts to believe that the rumours were manufactured to benefit speculators.
Traders quoted by Russia's Kommersant newspaper said the story of Potanin's arrest had been circulating for a few days.
According to the news report, it was spread by "one large investment company, which called its clients to tell them that Potanin had been summoned to the prosecutor-general's office".
Both the company and the prosecutor-general's office denied the questioning.
Potanin left Russia for Israel on what his company said was a scheduled business trip.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.nwherald.com/images/header/nwhhead_03.gif]
http://www.nwherald.com/BusinessSection/284883620461286.php
Monday, May 3, 2004
Gold prices may rise
BLOOMBERG NEWS
Gold may rise this week, ending a five-week slide, amid speculation the Federal Reserve on Tuesday will hold target interest rates at a 45-year low, boosting the metal and driving the dollar lower, a Bloomberg survey shows.
Twenty-seven of 34 traders, investors and strategists surveyed from Sydney to New York on Thursday and Friday advised buying gold. Six recommended selling, and one advised "hold."
Gold had its biggest monthly drop in 19 years in April as the dollar rose against the euro on expectations the Fed will boost its benchmark rate as early as August. A rising U.S. currency erodes the appeal of gold as an alternative to other dollar-denominated assets. The metal touched a five-month low last week on the prospect that demand from China may decline.
Zitat"I don't think the Fed will do anything to hurt the economy or hurt President Bush's chances of re-election,"
said Jeffrey Ward, chief executive officer of Metallic Ventures Gold Inc., which started producing gold in Nevada in February after four years of development. "I would bet they won't do anything at least until after the election."
Gold for June delivery rose as much as $2, or 0.5 percent to $389.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $389.40 an ounce at 11:29 a.m. Sydney time. Gold for immediate delivery gained as much as $6.88, or 1.8 percent, to $393.88 an ounce, before falling back to $388.95 at 11:41 a.m. compared with $387 at 1:30 p.m. Friday in New York.
The most-active contract fell 9.5 percent in April, the biggest such decline since July 1984. The metal fell 2.1 percent last week and 1.5 percent the previous week.
"Some people have difficulty conceiving of a rate increase in a presidential election year," said Tim Evans, senior commodity analyst at IFR Markets in New York. "A weaker dollar and low interest rates, especially in an environment when the economy is growing: That combination is really ideal for gold."
Evans gave a "buy" recommendation for gold after correctly predicting in the past two weekly Bloomberg surveys that the metal would fall. Most analysts had said bullion would increase.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://wwwi.reuters.com/comX/images/reuters.gif]
http://www.reuters.com/finance…5019235§ion=investing
Hot Stocks
North Atlantic shares jump on gold-mining results
Mon May 3, 2004 02:55 PM ET
TORONTO, May 3 (Reuters) - North Atlantic Nickel Corp (NAC.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) shares jumped almost 12 percent on Monday after the mining company reported favorable results from its Kantela gold-mining project in western Mali.
Shares of Toronto-based North Atlantic rose 11.7 percent or 20 cents to C$1.90, before paring their gains to C$1.85 by mid afternoon. Volume was 254,000 shares, more than five times above their 90-day average of just over 45,000.
"In terms of grade and thickness, the results are very positive," said Catherine Gignac, an analyst with Loewen, Ondaatje McCutcheon. "But to put this in perspective, this is still early stage and they need a lot more work done."
Depending on future results, North Atlantic said they may delay planned drilling at another property southeast of Kantela, in favor of expanding the current project.
Kantela, located in the Republic of Mali, West Africa, sits beside Sadiola, a gold mine already in production by AngloGold Ltd.(ANGJ.J: Quote, Profile, Research) and Iamgold Corp.(IAG.A: Quote, Profile, Research) .
"If they find something economic, the economics of the project are a lot more favorable because you've already got a mine sitting next door," Gignac said.
($1=$1.37 Canadian)
© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.
Möchte mal die boardeigenen technischen Möglichkeiten etwas besser testen, und feststellen, ob man hier im Board auch kleine Programme zum Download anbieten kann.
Downloads mit der Endung ZIP als Anhang, die nicht grösser als 200 Kilobyte sind, sind ja erlaubt.
Hier unten als Versuch ein kleines, aber nützliches, und sehr, sehr einfach, per rechte Maustaste, zu bedienendes Programm zum verschlüsseln von Daten, oder Files. Das Programm ist übrigens Freeware, und läuft einwandfrei auf WIN95, WIN98, WIN98SE, WIN98ME, und WIN XP!
Falls es funktionieren sollte, mit dem Download, dieses im Zip Format angehängten, garantiert "virenfreien" Programm, einfach abspeichern, entzippen, und per Doppelklick auf das Schlüsselsymbol installieren. Danach mit der rechten Maustaste auf irgend ein File im eigenen Computer, am besten mal ein Text File klicken (Bitte nicht im Windows Ordner), und Verschlüsseln wählen, Passwort eingeben, fertig.
Falls mein Versuch nicht klappen sollte, gebe ich für diejenigen unter Euch, die daran Interesse haben sollten, noch den direkten Link zum gratis Download bekannt.
Gruss
ThaiGuru
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http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/2…usiness/money/money02.asp
Put my money on gold, not dollars
Victor Hugo warns that US debt will make markets unstable
Markets will be driven in coming weeks by the impact of Chinese credit tightening and the prospect of higher interest rates in the US and the UK. The shares of resources suppliers have been dumped as investors decided that the credit tightening would have a large impact on Chinese orders and earnings.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/2…s/money/11-BT02Victor.jpg]
The major markets have traded lower and investors are asking themselves about broader market vulnerability after the strong runs of the past year in Europe and the US.
Markets have merely reduced some of the exuberance around commodity prices. After all, China and Japan are still doing their accelerating growth. Slightly slower demand and growth is not a bad thing - the market will wake up to that soon - and commodity shares will be snapped up in this heaven-sent dip.
But what about the Dow?
Long term technicals on the Dow Jones Industrial Average suggest that the last three weeks have been setting up scope for an aggressive sell-off soon.
Despite all the ra-ra talk about a new bull market in recent months, the Dow has not managed to break typical range resistance since January 2000. That is after some of the most intense efforts in history to stimulate the US economy.
China and Japan, as well as some resource producing countries, are about the only ones to confirm robust growth.
What do the prices that people are willing to pay for the shares of major US companies say when relativity is measured and projected on time-and-price tests?
They say that a market sell-off has been gathering momentum and that every point that the Dow falls between now and the important psychological area at about 10 000 can increase scope for selling all the way to 2002's lows or to about 6 000 by October 2005.
If that scenario develops, think of the impact on world markets and your portfolio.
It's time to be defensive - and too soon to write off gold as an unfaithful relic of history. Watch the US dollar and the Dow closely. End-April is an important cycle signature for broader markets (perhaps down next) and precious metals (perhaps up next).
There are two main views on the prospects of gold from now to year-end. The one that has become fashionable is that the gold run is over - now that the gold price has fallen and US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan is warning markets that interest rates will have to rise at some time.
Investors look at the big rises since April 2001 from $255.95 to January 2004's peak at $428.20. Well, well, they say - a correction was due.
Analysts argue for a long selling (down) scenario next because of volatility since January 2004's peak, as well as loss of six-month upward momentum.
This camp expects scope for more gold selling and for the price to fall to between $372 and $343, with the US dollar stable or stronger. These gold sceptics have already sold some of their precious metal shares, or are about to do so.
The other bullish scenario is a gold price of above $500 this year and above $600 by 2006. I can hear screams of derision. This implausible scenario is still my preferred candidate, based on technical evidence.
In this scenario, the US doesn't overcome its debt problems soon enough to avoid an asset bubble pop. The pop comes - which has an impact on the dollar, stock markets, property and bond prices all over the world.
It doesn't matter too much whether the trigger comes from some of the biggest geopolitical and large-scale terrorism risk of all time - a time when confidence is shaky - or whether it comes from the realisation that the dollar, US Treasury Bonds, Wall Street and US property prices are inflated and ripe for a puncture or a blowout.
The main factor for the medium- and long-term prospects of gold is the dollar and what drives it. Momentum and cycle evidence say the dollar is merely taking a breather before resuming its downhill trend - 15% or more lower in the next year and perhaps still weaker after that.
Until the US produces more, sells more, spends less, pays down debt and consumes on growth earned rather than on debt, the global financial system has a problem.
Years of investment flows to the US, reducing US production, increasing spending - and flamboyant consumer patterns - have caused distortions.
The imbalances have to be cleaned out before the dollar can recover on a sustained basis. Until then, any shock to the system - even gradually increased interest rates - can set off chains of dominoes.
That is what the huge increases in recent years of the gold price, precious metals and other commodity prices have been saying. Either the dollar or gold wins. Many people out there have been expecting gold to win and still do. Unfortunately though, if gold wins, the world can expect a lot of turbulence financially and eventually militarily.
Hugo is an analyst at GOLDSignals.com
Danke für den Link
Wenn jemand glauben sollte, dass diese Wahnsinns-Schulden von 128560.- US Dollar pro Kopf der Bevölkerung, (Arbeitslose, Oma, Tante, Kind, und Kegel mit eingerechnet), Tendenz stark steigend, je wieder zurückbezahlt werden wird, oder eine andere Lösung gefunden werden würde, die verhindert, dass ein bevorstehender *Fiat Money* Crash tatsächlich eintreten könnte, der sollte sich mal ernsthaft fragen, ob es nicht vielleicht doch besser wäre, einen neuen Taschenrechner, und danach etwas zusätzlich physisches Gold, und Silber zu kaufen.
Wie viele Leute glauben leider immer noch Staatsanleihen zu kaufen sei eine mündelsichere "Langzeit Kapital Anlage?"
Eigentlich unglaublich!
Gleichzeitig aber auch sehr dumm, und naiv!
Gruss
ThaiGuru
America has become more a debt 'junkie' - - than ever before with total debt of $37 trillion, or $128,560 per man, woman and child.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://mwhodges.home.att.net/nat-debt/dollar.gif]
65%, $24 trillion of this debt was created since 1990, a period primarily driven by debt instead of by productive activity.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
The US stock market continues to roll over. More and more investors are realizing the good news is behind them. The reality of increasing inflation, higher interest rates, horrendous US budget/trade deficits, and an Iraq disaster are staring them in the face. The DOG is really barking these days, closing at 1920, down 38. The DOW fell late for a change, finishing at 10,225, down 46.
Not very pretty:
DOG daily
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NA/X
DOG weekly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NA/W
More evidence of inflation and a deteriorating job picture:
GLK raises prices of all bromine and phosphorus specialty chemicals by up to 20% The exception is phosphite antioxidants, effective 5/24. The price increases are in addition to those previously announced.
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. said it plans to close 45 supermarkets and sell 111 more, affecting as many as 10,000 workers, as the grocer struggles against Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s supercenters.
Winn-Dixie would shed one in seven of its 1,078 stores in the next year, the Jacksonville, Florida-based company said in a statement. Third-quarter net income fell 99 percent to $610,000; sales declined 5.5 percent to $2.67 billion for the seventh- largest U.S. grocer by number of stores.
GATA’s Mike Bolser:
Hi Bill:
The Federal Reserve added $5.75 Billion in repos today April 30th, an action that caused the repo pool to fall a bit to $32.92 Billion. The DOW's 30-Day moving average remains in a smooth, definite up-turn mode and in my view will quickly recapture its Fed-engineered target trend line which was established by the June 2003 to December 2003 linear phase.
As much as we wish for the forces of free markets to operate, the Fed cannot tolerate such an environment and they have the capacity to pour unlimited billions in their vain efforts.
The attack on gold is but a temporary down phase in an over-all retreat by the Fed. Last night's DIVG 200-Day ma chart
http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis
clearly reveals that the yellow linear phase established since Jan 2, 2004 remains intact. There has been no change in this regression pattern and that should calm worried gold bugs.
There are other reasons that I cannot delve into that also confirm that the Fed is still in a retreat to higher ground in the gold market and will remain there. In viewing the daily up and down action one must appreciate that this is a war with stupendous Federal Reserve forces arrayed against the truth about gold. However, even with all the money in the universe they are losing their gold at an unsustainable rate and they have signaled that fact to the world through the DIVG 200-Day moving average. Gold bugs are winning and unfortunately many don't appreciate they are winning. The shares in particular.
Mike
Houston's Dan Norcini:
HI Bill:
Not much of a surpise in the Commitments of Traders report this week that we did not already know so I will pass on commenting much this time around. The fund longs bailed out, the fund shorts added on ( many of those new positions put on between 390-398), the small spec longs ditched and the cartel covered a sizeable portion of their still obscene level of shorts into the fund rout as we all expected them to do.
I sent a comment up to Jim Sinclair piggybacking on his thoughts about a potential rate hike here in the States and am sending it your way if you would like to use it.
Here it is below:
Hi Jim:
Please feel free to post this at your site. I am going to get it over to Bill Murphy as well. This is to follow up on your interest rate comments.
Along the line of your thinking in regards to the dollar, (which thinking I am perfectly in agreement with), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced a SURPRISE rate hike this very week of 25 basis points of .25% brining the cash rate to 5.5%. Any guess what the reason they gave for the unexpected hike?..... they cited 'inflationary pressures.' They also went on to say that future rate hikes were now on the table. New Zealand now has the highest official cash rate in the developed world.
This move out of New Zealand has fueled expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may follow suit sooner than later. The March housing credit numbers came in very strong suggesting that the Central Bank make hike sometime after the government's May 11 budget. Australia has its own troubles down under with a red hot housing market and the financial authorities are growing concerned about a developing bubble. Unlike their counterparts here in the States, both the Kiwi's and the Aussie's are far more responsible guardians of their respective economic houses.
If the Federal Reserve here kicks rates up a measley .5%, any interest rate differential benefit is going to be quickly lost as others follow suit and a round of hikes take place. The dollar is dead in the water and is going no where but down in the long term.
I cannot personally think of any situation more conducive for gold.
Kind regards,
Dan Norcini
9:20p ET Thursday, April 29, 2004
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
A great conference seems to be shaping up for Thursday and Friday, May 13 and 14, at the American Institute for Economic Research in Great Barrington, Mass., up in the beautiful Berkshires just south of Stockbridge and the Massachusetts Turnpike, 35 miles west of Springfield and 40 miles southeast of Albany.
The topic is "An Exploration of the Process of the Resumption of the Gold Standard," and it means to answer the question: "Does society gain from adopting a gold monetary standard, and, if so, how does it go about resumption from a practical standpoint?"
Speakers include Anna Schwartz of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a member of the U.S. gold study commission of 1981-82; Hugo Salinas Price, director and honorary president of Mexico's Groupo Elektra and proprietor of the silver money advocacy Internet site, http://www.plata.com.mx; Walker F. Todd, lawyer, former Federal Reserve official, and economist; John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund; and Thomas Ferguson, professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts at Boston.
Admission to the conference is free and includes a reception and dinner on both evenings but seating is very limited and as of tonight there are only a few openings left. So if you're interested in a couple of intellectually stimulating days in beautiful surroundings, check out the conferenceprogram at AIER's Internet site now:
http://www.aier.org/04conference/index.html
The institute's Internet site has information about conference registration and contacts for lodging in the Great Barrington area.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
There has been no stauncher and more consistent GATA supporter than Seabridge Gold (SEA), one of my holdings. Last July this gold resource rich exploration company (14 million ounces plus) was trading for less than $2 Cdn. It shot up to $6 and has settled back like most of the gold companies to $4.02 Cdn., up 8 cents today. It is a wonderful leveraged to gold play for those who believe the gold price is headed to $500 and beyond.
Seabridge closed its latest financing today with insiders taking 30% of the issue. Those insiders include CEO Rudi Fronk, Chairman Jim Anthony and the highly regarded Friedberg Mercantile Group (a 20% owner of SEA).
Seabridge Gold Closes $5.4 Million Equity Financing
Toronto, Canada … Seabridge reported today that it has closed its previous announced private placement financing consisting of 1,200,000 common shares at $4.50 per share for proceeds of $5,400,000. Of the shares issued, 350,000 were purchased by insiders of the company. The shares issued under this financing are subject to a four-month hold period expiring August 31, 2004. There were no commissions or finder’s fees payable on this financing.
Proceeds from this financing will be used to fund the development of its 100% owned Courageous Lake and Grassy Mountain projects, acquisitions of further advanced-stage gold projects and to supplement general working capital.
Seabridge has been designed to provide its shareholders maximum leverage to the price of gold. The Company has acquired a 100% interest in eight North American gold projects which collectively contain an estimated 8.74 million ounces of resources in the measured and indicated categories (250.1 million tonnes grading 1.09 grams of gold per tonne) plus an additional estimated 6.83 million ounces of resources in the inferred category (201.0 million tonnes grading 1.06 grams of gold per tonne).
See:
http://www.seabridgegold.net/gold_resources.htm for a breakdown of these gold resources by project). The Company continues to seek expansion of its gold resource base by acquisition of new projects and exploration programs largely funded by partners.
http://www.seabridgegold.net Email: info@seabridgegold.net
Shenanigan of the week:
Bill, replying to your 4/29 Midas--and to Eric's GSS observations: Once again, I continue to be amazed by the LARGE and small machinations trying to drive GSS down. Today, the stock closed at $4.54. BUT, they, changed the closing price down 10 cents a couple of trades AFTER 16:00. NEVER have I the closing price on any other stock changed AFTER the closing. There is NO picayune maneuver that is too small for these crooks. Note the two trades after 4pm -- the closing price was set, then changed to paint a little bleaker picture.
–END-
Evidence of rapidly increasing US inflation has been brought to your attention by many Café members for a number of months now, even while the Fed continued to nay say the obvious. Now, the cat is out of the bag (see Appendix) and markets are waking up to this reality and not listening to the drivel coming out of Wall Street which has continued to echo what the Fed has had to say.
The one leading indicator of this rapidly developing inflation should be a rising gold price, which, of course, is just what we had when a massive intervention attack by The Gold Cartel, and the Western establishment in general, sent the price into a waterfall collapse. It is pitiful the way the powers trash gold to hide the truth about what is really going on out there. Once again, they have taken away the value of a much watched barometer from the investing public. If gold were allowed to trade freely and was approaching $450 now, pundit after pundit would be citing the gold price as evidence that inflation is a significant concern. Thus, The Gold Cartel tanked it.
Their ploy worked, but not for long. The cash market is just too strong and the fundamentals are still "10+++" and getting better by the week. In my presentations this year at Vancouver, Chicago and Calgary (with the gold price much higher in each case) I presented the following as part of those "10+++" gold fundamentals. All of them are intact and most are becoming more bullish:
*Short-term interest rates are right above zero in the US... No Fed hike yet.
*We have negative US interest rates, meaning inflation is running ahead of the 1% Fed Funds, rate. Historically this has always been gold friendly…..They are becoming more negative as each month passes.
*US Government spending is out of control. The budget and trade deficits are horrendous…..The only change here is they are worsening.
*The US created mess in Iraq is likely to worsen as we approach the transition period…This looming disaster is worsening by the month.
*The US dollar is in big trouble and will stay that way….Yes, it rallied modestly, but now looks like it is turning down again.
*Investment gold demand is taking off and will soar….The cash market is on fire. Only this raid by the crooks has managed to cool down some of the investment interest in the West. It won’t be long before it is rekindled.
*Major gold producer hedgers will continue to cover their forward sale positions. This reduces gold supply…Still very true. Both Anglogold and Barrick have announced plans to continue to reduce their hedge books.
*There is a massive short position out there and those shorts are trapped….They are still trapped and cannot cover without driving the price of gold SHARPLY higher.
*Gold is reinserting its monetary role around the world….Yes it is, very quietly, especially in countries antagonistic to the US.
*The heinous terrorists will continue to create havoc and disturb financial markets…Unfortunately, this is the way it is.
*Gold will go into a bull market in most all currencies, not just the dollar….Which is just what was happening before The Gold Cartel did its thing. We will see the same again.
There are other reasons one can cite to support a very bullish case. The point here is that only The Gold Cartel has kept the gold price from screaming. This should not go on too much longer. This is why it is important to know what GATA knows. Gold is pouched in a slingshot, one which is gradually unfurling towards the heavens. Only a corrupt bunch of cowards is keeping the gold price from soaring. It is only a matter of time before they go down to defeat. Those who stay with the gold/silver program will be smiling big time in the months and years to come.
As always, the gold shares sold off late. The XAU slipped .12 to 81.94 and the HUI settled at 178.78, down 1. The gold shares are extremely oversold as a group. At times in the past, this has led to violent rallies. My guess is that is just what we are looking at once again, which is a major reason I am holding on to all my shares and will add down here any time I can. Still have my silver too.
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
Appendix
But, there is no inflation:
Don't look now, but the Fed's favorite inflation number just posted its biggest gain in three years.
April 29, 2004: 1:56 PM EDT
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money senior writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Continuing its comeback from a long hiatus, inflation reared its ugly head again Thursday, further cementing the likelihood that a Fed interest-rate hike is on the way.
The Commerce Department's price index for U.S. consumer spending (PCE), part of its quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) report, jumped 3.2 percent in the first quarter, the department said Thursday, the biggest gain since the first quarter of 2001
Inflation hits the family dinner table
After years of stability, prices rise on key items, hitting pocketbooks and economy.
By Ron Scherer, Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0430/p03s01-usec.html
NEW YORK – Many of life's necessities are becoming more expensive. Let's start with breakfast. Eggs: up 5.2 percent so far this year. Butter for your bread: up 62 percent. A glass of 2 percent milk to wash it all down: It may rise as much as 50 cents a gallon next month.
Time to head to work: filling up the gas tank now costs 30 cents a gallon more since January.
After more than a decade of quiescence, inflation is returning - eating away at family pocketbooks and rippling through almost every segment of the American economy.
The latest evidence came Thursday, when the government reported that the first quarter Gross Domestic Product grew at a steady 4.2 percent rate, but inflation virtually doubled: from 1.2 percent annually at the end of 2003 to 2 percent now.
The rate would have been much higher if it were not for some big-ticket items, such as automobiles and computers, which came down in price. In fact, in the category most families would relate to - food and gasoline - prices rose at a 5.3 percent annual rate.
Those numbers echo the more widely watched Consumer Price Index, which shows inflation running at 5.1 percent annually. Those are the highest numbers since 1990.
The inflationary pressures could well lead to the end of a historically low period of interest rates. Although no immediate rate hike is expected when the Federal Reserve meets next week, analysts believe inflation is reaching the point where the central bank will signal that it will increase rates early this summer. The stock market, anticipating such a move, has already been spooked in recent days.
"Yes, inflation starting to creep up, but still creeping," says David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. "It's time for the Fed to start thinking about it, but not panicking about it."
Consumer prices have started to pick up in particular in the past three months. Before that, US companies, facing competition from abroad, had absorbed most of the price increases.
Now, however, the dollar is weaker, and Asian economies are expanding. "The modest acceleration of price increases reflects the welcome revival of pricing power and not the beginning of a problematic inflation," says Clifford Waldman, an economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI in Arlington, Va.
• Kimberly Chase contributed to this report.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg
The John Brimelow Report
Important Bullish comment from Comex, SBL, UBS
Friday, April 30, 2004
Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $10.45, PM $9.61, with world gold at $387.20 and $387.40. Well above legal import point. Although this has been a wonderful week for Indian consumers of gold, it must have been extremely stressful for the importers. World gold this afternoon was a full $20 below that of Tuesday PM! At the least they may have credit lines drawn down and may have sustained losses as well. However, they can now look forward to a period of very heavy activity. World gold will probably have to go up $30 or so before importing slows. The Indian stock market was down 4.6% this week, on anxieties that the business-friendly BJP may not get the expected Parliamentary majority which had been expected. This on the margin dulls the attractiveness of a possible competing asset.
TOCOM, which was closed yesterday, and which will not open again until next Thursday, traded the equivalent of 33,461 Comex lots (29% above Wednesday) with open interest edging up the equivalent of 702 Comex lots to equal 113,983 Comex. The active contract was down 17 yen on Wednesday, but world gold at the close was 60c above the NY close. Shanghai, which is closed all of next week, reported premiums over world gold of around $6, modestly firmer despite world gold being $3 higher than yesterday. Volume however, was only moderate. (NY traded 73,152 lots yesterday; open interest fell only 401 lots to 247,316.)
Several Bullion dealer commentators clearly think the market got precariously short this week, especially early yesterday morning. Standard London, recounting trading from early yesterday, has one of their occasional bursts of extreme candor:
Zitat"Gold started the day in Asia at 384.20 bid...Before long, funds were sniffing around for stops and gold was "forced" lower despite seeing good physical volumes. Gold traded to an early low of 382.60 offer before physical purchases overpowered sellers …It was only after the AM fix that the European dealers started to show their true intentions. Good selling was seen ahead of important US economic data release and gold was literally "whacked" to the day’s low of 377.75 offered, while stop orders were sought after. Finding no stops below 380s, dealers scrambled for cover… After COMEX opened…Those who took a short position were sorely disappointed as gold started rallying"
UBS is almost equally forthright:
Zitat"If the change in open interest reported for Wednesday proves to be correct, then new shorts entered the market during gold’s rout. This balances the near term risks in gold more evenly and could point to a rapid rally in the metal…"
(Thursday’s numbers produced no alteration.)
Besides the Far East, much of Europe is closed on Monday. Whereas, in the PGMs the absence of the key buying markets will give the Bears a relatively free paw, in gold they will get no respite from the main buyers.
While waiting for this show to get underway, Gold’s friends should take the time to read the account of an Atlanta Fed paper in today’s WSJ (second attachment). It argues that the Fed, in effect over-stimulated last year because of a technical skew in the inflation statistics which will now anyway reverse. Gold, in other words, should be getting a favorable backdrop.
The noted gold bear also seems to take the concept of excessive short selling very seriously:
Zitat"Will shorts be eaten? Of the metals crashing Wednesday, gold alone saw open interest rise on COMEX. Even if figures are not universally believed, the historical record will not be changed. And the impression that new shorts are back, for the first time since August 2002, will be pause for something more serious than a pause."
(If he is right about Aug 2002 – which will not be known until next Friday – then a major rally is inevitable.)
JB
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
April 30 - Gold $386.80 up 10 cents - Silver $6.05 up 25 cents
The Fundamentals Say Gold And Silver To Fly Again
Zitat"The secret to a happy life is to run out of cash and air at the same time." ...Bobby Layne, notorious ex-NFL quarterback great
I don’t know Bobby. I was running out of cash and air all week and I was no happy camper!
Government is the only agency that can take a valuable commodity like paper, slap some ink on it, and make it totally worthless... Ludwig von Mises
GO GATA!!!
Gold took out $390, rising nearly $4 before mad bomber funds assaulted the rally. After the recent drop on Wednesday, there must have been a good deal of selling to meet aging margin calls. Gold Cartel groupie hedge fund Moore Capital sold 1500 gold contracts going into the close. End of month paint the tape time.
Surely the Commitment of Traders report issued later today will reveal the specs continued to pile out of their long positions and are probably more short now than they have been in a very long time. The gold open interest dropped only 401 contracts yesterday to 247,316. We know certain long-term spec longs bailed out; therefore, the small net change suggests other funds were going short as the dealer world was buyers. The dealers were buyers again today with the funds selling once more.
Mission accomplished by the crooks. The Gold Cartel, with the gold fundamentals never better, orchestrated this multi-week raid to turn the specs from long to short so they could cover their own massive short positions. The rigged casino folks fleeced the unsuspecting spec world once again. The only question now is whether they are going to try and cover a portion of their long term gold shorts, which will drive the price of gold up close to $500, or are they planning to play the same game again as gold rallies back up towards $430? Only time will tell on that one.
As expected, The Commitment of Traders report showed more spec liquidation in the gold pits. The commercials put on 7763 more longs and exited 13,096 of their short positions. The small specs reduced their longs by 5,000 contracts. It is important to keep in mind these figures do not include the last three days in which the funds have been massive sellers and the trade buyers. All of those days were with gold below its technically significant $390 level following Wednesday’s bloodbath.
The importance of $390 and then $395 is quite clear:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/64
With the specs this short, gold should fly once $395 is cleared.
More liquidation in silver. The open interest fell 1172 contracts to 101,705. What a collapse! From high to low, silver fell almost $3 in three weeks. On a percentage basis, it is huge. Today’s decent rally suggests silver is finally sold out and should head back up to fill some of the enormous gaps left above.
May silver closed right above its steep downtrend line:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/54
There were 872 May silver deliveries. The big stoppers were Deutsche Bank (once again) and the Bank of Nova Scotia. Is this bullish or bearish? The answer will depend on what the Comex warehouse stocks do this month. If they start coming down, it will indicate silver refiners are taking Comex grade silver and getting it into shape for customers. This has not happened yet. If this does occur, it should mean they are unable to satisfy customer demands through their normal channels.
Silver spent most of the day above its 200-day moving average which is right above $5.80, while gold spent the day below its 200-day moving average about $391.50.
The silver stochastics are turning up from extremely oversold levels. A silver recovery move to the upside could be quite violent.
With all the talk about commodity markets being killed by an exiting "carry trade" hedge fund crowd, you would think we were headed into a commodity bear market.
Two of the more important commodities aren’t paying any attention. Crude oil at $37.38 continues to eye $40 and May soybeans at $10.34, up 19 ½ cents today, are not far from contract highs. Pork Bellies were limit up too.
In eigener Sache!
Musste leider heute feststellen, dass an meine E-Mail Adresse gerichtete Zuschriften, die ich bereits beantwortet hatte, bei den Empfängern, anscheinend grösstenteils nicht angekommen sind, weil der Mail Server sie als Spam klasifiziert, und nicht weitergeleitet hatte.
Der Grund dafür war, dass ich ein neues deutschsprachiges Programm "ePrompter" zur Abfrage meiner Pop3, und HTML basierten Mailkonten benutzte. Zwei meiner Mail Server, haben anscheinend etwas dagegen, dass solche Hilfsprogramme, die werbeüberfluteten Gratis E-Mailkonten Seiten, direkt, und ohne Werbung anschauen zu müssen, benützt werden können, und haben ePrompter, ein Gratisprogramm von der letzten PC-Welt, anscheinend auf den Index gesetzt. Meine E-Mail Adresse thaiguru@asia.com war davon auch insofern betroffen, dass ich die Meldungen zwar weiterhin abrufen und lesen kann/konnte, doch meine Beantwortungen über ePromter wurden, und werden einfach nicht an die Absender weitergeleitet. Somit darf ich nun allen Mail Absendern der letzten fast 4 Wochen nun nochmals Antworten. Das dürfte einige Tage in anspruch nehmen.
Sorry
ThaiGuru
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.swissinfo.org/images/header/schweizer-nachrichten.jpg]
Freitag 30.04.2004
Eurodisney in Paris droht Zahlungsunfähigkeit
PARIS - Nach einem weiteren Rutsch in die Verlustzone droht dem Pariser Disneyland zum Juni die Zahlungsunfähigkeit, wenn in den Verhandlungen mit den Banken keine Lösung gefunden wird. Die Liquidität reicht nur noch bis zum 31. Mai 2004 aus.
SDA-ATS
Danke für deine Bemühen
Nummerierung der einzelnen Postings zur einfacheren Bezugsnahme
+
Das Problem dass viele Grafik Formate, im Gegensatz zur technisch rückständigeren "Konkurrenz" hier im Board nicht verlinkt werden können
Sind die beiden häufigst genannten Anliegen!
Gruss
ThaiGuru
Da muss es irgendwelche kleinere Probleme geben!
Wenn die FED es trotz massiv ausgeweiterten Repo Raten und der Unterstützung ihrer Primery Dealers nicht mehr fertig bringt den Markt ihren Zielen entsprechend zu kontrollieren, wird der A.G. wohl gerade zwei Kämme benutzen. Dem Goldpreis dürften seine Probleme gut tun.
Gruss
ThaiGuru
[Blockierte Grafik: http://i.cnn.net/money/images/logo/cnnmoney_logo.gif]
http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/3…markets_newyork/index.htm
[Blockierte Grafik: http://money.cnn.com/images/new_markets/big_graph.png]
Down on day, week, month
Nasdaq leads market lower Friday and in April as investors worry about rising interest rates, Iraq.
April 30, 2004: 4:09 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. stock markets tumbled Friday, at the end of a brutal week and choppy month as worries about rising interest rates and developments in Iraq overshadowed stellar corporate earnings
weiter.....
Sehe gerade, dass Du online bist!
Warum werden eigentlich in Diesem Board Fragen von mir, und vielen anderen Usern zu technischen Anliegen,
!!!! NIE BEANTWORTET !!!!
Gruss
ThaiGuru
Hyperinflation
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.usagold.com/AMK/Germanywaitline.jpg]
Deutschland 1924. Morgens Warteschlangen vor der Bäckerei. Brotkauf bevor die Preise am Nachmittag weitersteigen.
The Nightmare German Inflation
The most highly visited USAGOLD Gilded Opinion piece
Zitat"As this report points out, the correlation between deficits and inflation is sacrosanct ---deficits lead to inflation and uncontrolled deficits lead to uncontrolled inflation. Whether or not there will be a Nightmare American Inflation remains to be seen. Let it be said though that the trend is not favorable. The survivors of the German debacle did so by purchasing gold and rare coins early in the process. As a citizen and an investor, the best you can do is prepare, and then hope against hope that it doesn't happen here. This report of Germany's hyperinflation, originally published in 1970 by Scientific Market Analysis, could play an important part in that preparation process. There is little doubt it will affect your thinking."
[Blockierte Grafik: http://sg.yimg.com/i/sg/mastheads/finance_new.gif]
Friday April 30, 5:51 PM
St. Barbara Mines: $1.6M 1Q Cash Loss At Meekatharra
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.optionetics.com/images/logo_opto.gif]
INDEX INTELLIGENCE: XAU—Going For Gold
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.optionetics.com/ima…red%204%2029%2004%201.gif]
weiter....
Doch, doch, der Adam Hamilton hat vorher, bereits am 1. April von kurzfristig überkaufter Situation beim Silber geschrieben.
ZitatIn the April issue of our Zeal Intelligence newsletter for our subscribers, on April 1st before silver collapsed I wrote, “From a short-term speculation standpoint, silver’s chart does look rather toppy at the moment. The metal is accelerating to the upside and is on the verge of going parabolic, a telltale sign of being short-term overbought.”
Hamilton spricht von einem kollabierten Silberpreis, den er aber als Korrektur ansieht, bei einem wie er meint zu hoch, und vor allem zu schnell in kurzer Zeit gestiegenen Silberpreis.
Hingegen hast Du recht, er hat seinen Abonnenten nicht speziell geraten zu verkaufen, das habe ich ebenfalls nicht, von Dir habe ich auch keine spezielle Verkaufsempfehlung gelesen, oder habe ich etwas übersehen. A. Hamilton ist wohl vom Ausmas der "Silberpreis Korrekur" genauso überrascht worden, wie die meisten hier im Thread auch. Da zähle ich mich selbst auch dazu.
Hamilton versucht im heutigen Beitrag aufzuzeigen, dass es wieder aufwärts gehen wird mit dem Silberpreis.
Das ist auch meine Überzeugung, und vermutlich auch Deine, und die vieler anderer User im Thread.
Und genauso dürfte es auch kommen.
Gruss
ThaiGuru
