Beiträge von ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif]

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?t…id=4957006&action=article

Breaking news

2004-04-22 19:40 GMT:

Gold futures up, close near $394

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- June gold closed at $393.90 an ounce, up $2.50 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, recouping some of the more than $10 it lost in the last three sessions. May silver continued lower, however, to close down by 2.3 percent at $6.028 an ounce -- the contract's lowest closing level of the year. This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see http://www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

GoldenCentury

Das wär doch mal was anderes, ein Krieg ums Zaren GOLD!

Würde mich nicht verwundern wenn die Russen nächstens sich etwas mehr um dieses "Unnütze Zeugs" bemühen, das eh niemand mehr braucht.(FT)

Gruss

ThaiGuru

PS: In Thailand ist Gold in den letzten Tagen von 7950.- auf 7450.- THB pro Bath (15.1 Gramm) gefallen, das freut die Thais, und erhöht die Kaufeslust am gelben Edelmetall enorm. Umsomehr als gerade in der Thai Presse die Storry einer Frau gebracht wird, die seit 40 Jahren jeden Monat 1 Bath Gold gekauft hatte. Der Preis eines Gewichtsbath Gold soll damals nur 400.- Bath pro Bath gekostet haben, und sich bis heute fast verzwanzigfacht haben. Die Dame wird jetzt als reiche, und klever investierende Frau, mit einer ausgezeichneten Absicherung für`s Alter vorgezeigt, und ihr Anlageverhalten gelobt, und zur Nachahmung empfohlen.

Die Thais lieben Geschichten von anderen Leuten die reich wurden sowieso. Die Thais lieben erst recht Gold, echtes Gold, kein *Fiat Gold*. Papiergold gibt es in Thailand meines Wissens nach, noch nicht einmal zu kaufen. Die Thais wissen im Gegensatz zu den meisten Europäern den inneren Wert von Gold zu schätzen. Nicht wenige der besser betuchten Thais werden wohl jetzt höchstwahrscheinlich diese besagte Dame imitieren wollen, und kaufen jeden Monat jetzt auch mindestens einen Bath Gold (ca.1/2 Unze).

Gut so!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

kalle14

Zitat

Wir sehen und fühlen doch alle,das um uns herum irgentetwas nicht stimmt,nur verstehen wir es nicht in gleichem Maße.

Sehr zutreffende Aussage!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

@alle

Ich krieg Kopfweh

Nein, nicht wegen dem Gold, und Silberpreis, der die letzten Tage so gewaltig eins auf`s Dach gekriegt hat, und vielleicht noch ein`s mehr übergebraten kriegt.

Sondern darum weil ich die Verunsicherung, und selbst Bemitleidung, oder sogar wie in einem Fall, Endzeitstimmung machende Postings für`s Gold und Silber nicht mehr lesen kann.

Wer für physisches Gold vor 2 Wochen 420.- Dollar pro Unze bezahlt hatte, dem war doch Gold auch soviel Wert, und derjenige muss den Goldpreis zudem einen höheren Wert als die 400.- eingeräumt haben, sonnst hätte er ja wohl nicht gekauft. Und das wichtigste ist, man besitzt auch heute noch genau die selbe Menge an Gold, für die man bereit war 420.- pro Unze zu bezahlen.

Gold steht jetzt auf ca. 391.- Dollar pro Unze, also gerade einmal nur 6.9% weniger als vor 2 Wochen. Kurzfistig ist jetzt dieses Gold in Dollar gerechnet billiger geworden. Da der Dollarkurs gegenüber dem Euro, ohne echte fundamentale Gründe, unerwartet an Wert zulegen konnte, ist ein Kilo Gold in Euro, oder Franken, etc. gerechnet, bis jetzt nicht einmal 3.5% gefallen.

Beim Silber sieht`s für einen Käufer der allenfalls gerade erst auf dem Höchst bei 8.40 Dollar pro Unze gekauft hat, heute bei 6.20 Dollar pro Unze, zur Zeit etwas weniger erfreulich aus. 26% Wertminderung in Dollar gerechnet, ist, wenn auch nur temporär, recht happig, und tut sicherlich weh. In Euro gerechnet sind es ca. 22% Wertverlust.

Über die Gründe die zu diesem "Preiverfall" beim Silber geführt haben wurde bereits viel diskutiert, und ich möchte jetzt nicht noch einmal darauf eingehn.

Silber ist jedoch nicht Konkurs gegangen, auch ist es nicht verfallen, oder mit Restwert zwangsverkauft worden, wie bei Derivativen zum Teil üblich. Man besitztalso immer noch die haargenau gleiche Menge an Silber, für die man selbst, und ebenso alle anderen Marktteilnehmer, vor 2 Wochen bereit war, mit Sicht auf weitere Preissteigerungen, einen Preis von 8.40 zu bezahlen.

Das was wir heute alle, inklusive mir selbst, an Wertverlust in *Fiat Money* gerechnet, jetzt wohl für einige Zeit akzeptieren müssen, meiner Einschätzung nach etwa 1-3 Wochen, ist überhaupt kein Grund dafür, bei sich selbst, oder bei anderen zu suchen, die diese negative Entwicklung der "Preise" in dieser kurzen Zeit nicht für möglich gehalten haben, und dementsprechend ebenfalls vorübergehend in *Fiat Money* gerechnet auf dem Papier verloren haben.

Im Nachhinein zu sagen, "hätte ich doch nur", oder "ich hätte es wissen müssen", bringt rein gar nichts, und ändert auch nichts an der Sache.

Wir Gold, und Silber Bugs haben seit Ende 1999 richtig investiert. Vor zwei Wochen war es auch richtig, und wenn wir jetzt noch einmal investieren, ist es erst recht richtig!

Denke in etwa 3 Wochen werden die ersten User wieder bei erreichen von 430.- Dollar Gold hier im Board auf`s Neue die Frage stellen, soll man jetzt noch Gold kaufen. Einige unsichere Anleger werden sich vielleicht dann sogar ärgern, dass sie diese günstige Möglichkeit Gold, und Silber zu kaufen, nicht benutzt haben.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

bognair

Lass Dir die Lust nicht verderben!

Deine Dreiecke sind sehr sehr interessant und nützlich, nur zur Zeit sind zu Starke Einflüsse vorhanden, als dass die Märkte normal spielen könnten. Zeig und Deine Dreiecke trotzdem weiter. Die Dreiecke werden schon bald wieder nach oben thrusten.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

Teil II

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

JUST IN LATE from Greg Pickup, says it all:

The Wizard of Fed testified today that the US economy is in a "vigorous expansion" that has not yet produced "broad based" inflation pressure.

How can we be sure? According to Wayne Angel former Fed pooh bah and now resident insider at Bear Sterns it is because the price of gold has been "smashed." Speaking on bubblevision with head cheerleader Kudlow, Angel couldn't quit talking about gold. The price had been smashed he averred, with his trademark smirk, and even more importantly it had declined relative to a basket of other commodities for 15 weeks! This was proof postive that there was no inflation. Angel also stated that since China had pegged the yuan to the dollar it functioned in the same manner as if it was on a gold standard. Obviously obsessed with the success of their bear raid Angel was about to pontificate further on gold when Kudlow broke him off and turned to a shill from Business Week who had another positive point. Employees are willing to be happy with, or at least accept, salary increases of 2-3% becasue "they are happy to have a job." So no wage inflation.

Greg

GATA has linked Wayne Angel to the gold price rigging scheme for many years now.

If I could take back one headline put out over the last 5 ½ years, it would have been yesterday’s about mindless selling. It is always prudent to protect gains or equity. Today’s further sell-off proves that. It was written with my notion that gold, silver and the shares will be MUCH higher in prices in the months to come and, in retrospect, this selling will look to have been panicky.

The commodity gyrations of late remind me of the late 70’s. The action suggests we are going through a transition phase from the more docile moves of recent years into more violent ones. While prices have tanked the past few weeks, the supply/demand situations for many commodities remains very tight. The odds of the CRB going into new high ground is very high. Often before some of the grandest commodity moves of the 70’s, we would get a "killer shake out" to the downside before prices really began to soar. This is what the latest setback feels like.

The gold shares continued their slide with the XAU falling 1.30 to 87.96 and the HUI sinking 2.81 to 194.55.

This has been one ugly week so far – never easy to get used to – but something we have seen before over the last five years. This is the time to think where we are going again and not what we are going through. That sort of thinking has paid off over and over again.

Just as I finished the MIDAS, this email came in from a fellow Cafe member titled, "Grinning." It makes my point better than I did:
I love bargains, and Gold is returning to be one and Silver is at fire-sale prices. I know I should be upset, but I wasn't able to accumulate as much as I wanted on the last pullback.

And another reason is that I remember similar action in gold all the way up. Anyone who has been around LeMetropoleCafe for a while will remember that 285 had a hard time falling. The Bank of England dumped it all around 275. Then it moved up. 305, 318, then 330 looked like ceilings. It hit, then dropped. A few weeks later it mounted another assault. Then 350 was going to hold - oops 380. Then it was never going over 400.

The supply-demand imbalance is still there, the CBs cupboards are bare except for paper that won't be good to even protect shelves, mine supply isn't coming on that fast. Then there's the M3, the Inflation they can't manipulate out even with great efforts, the various derivative pyramids... Still a 10 +++++.

I was worried since things were getting frothy. I didn't like it that the hot money, momentum players, and the hedge funds were getting in BECAUSE they turn on a dime and all exit just as fast - they cause both the spike and the crash. That is what we've been seeing, along with the fact that the relatively small market cap works BOTH ways - when everyone wants to pile in, there are only so many gold shares. But when weak hands pile out all at once it makes things seem worse.

This may continue for a little while (until it gets despondent and everyone who knows nothing hates gold again). But it is still only a bearish correction still in the beginning of the bull market of the century. The gold bought under 300 is still nicely profitable, and I remember the HUI in double digits and the XAU in the tank (when they put Phelps Dodge in the index for a while). Corrections happen. And manipulation can happen, but they can't create gold or silver out of thin air. Supply and Demand always win in the end.

Your archives are there - Anyone worried should go back and read about the similar corrections to gold over the last few years. Just as scary. Just as clearly times to buy with both hands as you were suggesting. And when it reverses, if it is strong and fundamental, it won't give a clear signal. Just a 2% today, 3% tommorow, small pullback, up another 1%, so if you don't watch Gold will be at 450 before anyone notices. All on fundamentals and not hot money so it won't be reversed.

***
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Another good read from Down Under:

Good Morning Bill,

I suppose I should be depressed about the trashing of gold and silver that continues as I speak. But I'm not, as my latest piece outlines.

Stay strong GATA - our time is at hand!

The trouble with Alan Greenspan is that he's just too old. Oh I don't mean that he's got a touch of Ronnie Reagan disease, at least not in the accepted sense, and I don't doubt for a moment that he's always been a couple of kangaroos short in the top paddock. No, It's just that at his age, he can remember the Great Depression of the 1930's and for the past 4 years the memory of that terrible time has guided his action on monetary policy.

When the market crashed back in 1929 after a decade of easy credit and stock market speculation, the Federal Reserve did a classic 'shutting the door after the horse has bolted' routine by actually tightening monetary policy. That was intended to curb what Big Al would have called 'irrational exuberance', similar to the lunacy of the Nasdaq bubble in the second half of the last decade. The accepted economic wisdom is that because the Fed held rates too high for too long after the crash, America suffered its worst economic slump in history. Well Big Al wasn't going to fall into that trap.

So instead of letting America have the 'recession it had to have' as an erstwhile Australian Prime Minister once pronounced to his eternal chagrin, and allowing the US economy to have a good clean out, Greenspan embarked upon the greatest round of monetary stimulus ever. Rates were cut to below the inflation rate, and trillions and trillions of new dollars were printed - a process that continues to this day. Deflation was the bogeyman (and still is - but not yet) and Al and his buddies at the Fed weren't going to lie down and watch it develop. Fellow Fed Governor Ben Bernanke and his infamous 'printing press' speech were indicative of the prevailing mood - deflation will be stopped at all costs!

Well it looks like they've done just that, because last night Big Al said deflation was no longer a threat - and inflation now is the danger! A bit of classic 1984-speak there if ever I saw one. Of course everbody who has to meet their daily expenses knows that inflation has been around for quite a while, because they've had to dig deep to find the money to pay for everday things like fuel and food (too volatile to be included in the official inflation figures say the bean-counters) health care and schooling, not to mention soaring prices for building materials and just about every other commodity. But so far, the Government has stubbornly refused to acknowledge that the inflation beast is out of its cage. They do admit that commodity prices have risen, they couldn't do otherwise with the stats staring them in the face. But they say inflation is tame because labour costs haven't risen.

That beggars a very big question: if labour costs are under control, and they are because business can't afford to hire new permanent workers let alone give pay hikes to existing ones, then just how are people going to be able to meet the costs of increased mortgage payments and credit card bills? This week's Index of Leading Economic Indicators showed that hours worked had decreased, and so had real wages.Yet Big Al is clearly paving the way for a rate hike, maybe as soon as June.

Last night the greenback soared and the stock and bond markets fell. But hold on a minute - weren't we supposed to expect a fall in the dollar to correct that yawning current account deficit? Has everyone forgotten that markets will punish a currency that continually labours under the twin burdens of 5% plus deficits? While George Bush may be comfortable with the idea that inflation will increase sales tax revenue, and all those new jobs (?) will increase income tax revenue, hopefully reducing the Budget deficit, he has to contend with the burgeoning cost of the occupation in Iraq, an item that still hasn't been included fully in the Budget forecasts.

Last month US business capacity decreased again, so while Greenspan says that pricing power is 'slowly returning' it's hard to see how. And if prices of manafactured goods do rise, who can afford to pay? The average debt on a credit card in America is over $9000! Joe Six-pack can't fall back on refinancing his home any more to buy consumer goods, because bond yields are rising and so will his mortgage repayments.

There's another big question mark here too: if the bond market tanks, and it will, and the stockmarket continues to fall, which it well may, and the housing market stagnates, or worse still collapses, where will all this new money being created find a home? Commodities? Maybe. Gold and silver? Probably, but not just yet while the manic euphoria surrounding the US dollar continues. And what can we expect in the way of interest rates and inflation/deflation for the rest of the year? Who knows, but I return to the words of that Austrian economist Ludwig Von Mises "Credit driven booms always end badly." This has been a credit driven boom unparalled in US economic history. There's every reason to believe that its ultimate demise will

also have no peer.

The Idle Fellow.

PS:- Regular readers of my raves will know that I'm a longtime bull on gold and precious metals. The last 10 days has seen one of the biggest corrections in spot prices of gold and silver for many months. Some of you may feel I've got egg on my face after so much hype. Far from it. For once these falls really do fall into the category of a 'technical correction', because the fundamentals for PM's haven't changed one bit. In fact I'm more bullish on gold and silver than I've ever been, and there has never been a better time to buy. Once the market realises that America's debt isn't going to go away, that it has to be repaid, that Iraq isn't going to finish any time soon, that terrorism still threatens everyone on the planet, that America makes thousands more enemies with every passing day, and that pieces of paper, churned out by the trillion and backed with nothing but a promise of debt are intrinsically worthless, then gold will once again have its day in the sun. And it will gleam and glitter as never before.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

While gold and silver were pummeled, the US stock market yawned. The DOW gained 3 to 10,317 and the DOG leaped 17 to 1995.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed took another holiday today April 21st 2004. This non action caused the repo pool to stay unchanged at $31.33 Billion and as expected, it's 30-day ma kept edging up. The DOW at this hour is weak at 10,280 as the Master of the Universe tours Capitol Hill with his newfound higher interest rate speech. The DOW will rebound towards the end of the month.

Interest rates aren't moved up because someone in the economics department at the Fed produces a study saying they ought to go up. The Fed has been FORCED to begin raising interest rates. They have been dragged kicking and screaming to this point. What has such power to move the Fed itself to a policy reversal? You guessed it....GOLD.

The 200-day moving average of the Dollar Index Value of Gold (DIVG) to be specific. In January the drainage of physical metal had become unsustainable and the gold-sellers defensive dam dam burst open and the retreat to a higher DIVG was sounded.

To be sure the day-to-day DIVG is carefully masked by the Fed to give the false impression of randomness and because it is the mixture of both gold and the major currency dollar index (MCDI) it is effectively impossible to predict the exact dollar price of gold beyond a trend direction. So those attempting to pick off a target price and deftly jump in and out are taking unnecessary risks.

We know where the DIVG is going and we know that now is the time to get into physical gold and silver because the 200-day ma of the DIVG is headed up on a straight line. That clean yellow line is doubtless the result of a pre-arranged agreement between central bankers to retreat to higher ground or to stay in a gold retreat mode altogether until interest rates are raised high enough to cause a slackening of physical gold demand.

Given the deteriorating geopolitical environment and feckless US leadership that date may be years away.
Mike

Chuck checks in late this afternoon:

Bill:

Obviously ready for something dramatic. The total lack of concern towards the market is increasingly amazing. It certainly appears that everything is in for a temporary bottom in the golds and even the silver stocks, although I think silver will break $6, perhaps tomorrow. Your sentiment figures on the Euro and Canadian dollar just confirms this. There was a lot of volume in the gold and silver stocks and throw in the near panic liquidation, and we should be ready to bounce well.

You know I am a very deflationary person so this type of action cannot be shocking. But if the commodities are behaving this way, what will happen to the stocks and housing.

It is a good time to take a shot at puts on stocks here.

Chuck

But, there is no inflation, unless you have to feed pets:

CL raises U.S. pet food prices by average of 3-4% -- Reuters
CL cites commodity costs.
(Colgate Palmolive)

From The King Report last evening:

Because there is so much opinion and hype these days, it’s incumbent on investors to arduously seek and carefully scrutinize evidence and facts about what is occurring in the economy.

The WSJ’s Jesse Eisinger in his column yesterday notes GM (1.3m) and Ford inventories at near all-time highs. He also notes what we reported several weeks ago: the average new car buyer rolls over negative equity of over $3k/new car. New buyers are stretching payment terms to 6 years to keep payments level. Now add in the growing inventory of new homes. Housing starts are almost double sales. The refi game is arrested, extended employment benefits are ending and the last dribbles of W’ tax rebates (and accelerated depreciation) will soon end. Automakers bought the hype and conventional wisdom that the first half of 2004 would be an economic boom due to the ‘momentum’ from the end of 2003. However as we wrote, for the first two months of 2004, income growth was at a historically low level (1%), not seen since the energy depression of 1986. When IRS data is available, a clearer picture will emerge.

The 2.2% decline auto production for March is now easy understood.n This recovery has been homes and autos. New home prices have been falling since November on the increasing inventories. PENT UP DEMAND IS NEGLIGIBLE GOING FORWARD.

In the titantic battle between global deflation and central bank/government inflation, it’s highly probable that deflation is re-emerging. A preponderance of investing/trading vehicles are falling and the dollar is up due to deleveraging by the over-leveraged propreitary trading community.

Easy Al says most banks are hedged, neutral on rate risks. That means everything is hedged at a risk-free (T-Bill) rate of return. Ergo they can’t make any money. Easy Al is either trying to downplay the likely carnage of an increase in short rates or he doesn’t understand banking and/or hedging.

Greenspan said labor costs are well-contained, a sign that he isn’t concerned about inflation. The financial media quickly noted that the biggest component of consumer price inflation is wages. This is totally, egregiously WRONG! The primary determinant of consumer price inflation or CPI is RENTS! And that is irrefutable. Rent is the single biggest component of CPI and it has little to do with wages.

-END-

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Well Bill:

So much for that second home in Canada this month.

I am still amazed at the complete vertical disintegration in silver. Looks like we might need to head down to $6.00 and maybe even lower to $5.85 until this thing exhausts itself. One thing is sure - when the selling is finished, there will not be many fund longs left in there. I bet they got most of them today. Tomorrow will be margin calls for those who did not get out today. No doubt many of the little guys were wiped out today. Very, very tragic.

Gold held up a bit better but still got caught up by the silver downdraft. It was holding its own until then and had come back really nicely even showing signs of a potential bottom near 390. Now, it's anyone's guess. Next stop below $390 is $388 and then $385. I would say that I do not expect that $385 will be tested after seeing the buying emerge at $390, but after today, anything is possible.

Bad day all around for the gang. Unfortunately, it is going to take quite a bit to repair the technical damage that was done today especially in silver. It is considerable. One thing is certain, we are not going to head right back up again. It will take time for the players to get their courage and confidence back after today's shellacking. Buying is going to be tentative at best outside of the physical market. The Specs are reeling right now. A lot of this can be traced to the unwinding of those carry trades that the Fed's easy money policy facilitated. When these big hedge funds unwind positions that have been in place for such a long time, the sheer size and magnitude of their selling or buying is almost mind boggling to comprehend.

We will need to watch the volume and open interest figures to see when the liquidation and selling pressure has abated. Then we will stabilize; not necessarily head back up but at least stop going down.

Talk to you later,

Dan

A point of view to ponder after our licking:

Bill:

Too bad about the last couple of days, but I feel it is small potatoes in the long run. I’m keying in on Chinese gold buying. Do you remember how the Swiss Franc was viewed in the past? It was a hard currency, because it was backed by Gold. The stability of the Swiss Republic when their currency was hard is legendary. Now, think China.

Chinese don’t play for five minutes or five cents, whichever comes first. Their long term view is legendary.

What value is accrued to China if they are "THE" Industrialized nation of the world "AND" have a hard currency?

Having a hard currency in the midst of depreciating fiat currencies assures them that China will take over the de-facto economic leadership of the world. Raw resources tend to find themselves going to countries that have hard currencies instead of currencies backed by promises. Having lived overseas in the 50’s and 60’s, I am well aware that importers never want to receive their payment in soft currencies.

It makes sense therefore (if you are Chinese) and following this scenario to do several things:

Accumulate gold through surrogates.

Buy time by making promises that in the future you will de-peg the Chinese currency from the dollar, which until it is, will:

1. Assure that your exports will be cash positive allowing you to.

2. Accumulate more raw resources, to expand your economic infrastructure and clout, and

3. Gold

Having a hard currency greatly increases domestic stability, which China will need to be a world economic/industrial leader.
For the above reasons, I believe that the present down-trend in gold and shares will be viewed as a non-event in years to come, when we see how the migration of precious metals has gone from the West to the East.

Best,
Will

Down Under thinking:

Hi Bill:

Shocking day but not unexpected. Things are now unravelling as more and more people see that something is awfully wrong. There are those in the Gold community who tonight are congratulating themselves for moving into "cash" before the recent drop in Gold shares.

They are deluding themselves. They may have sold gold/gold shares for fiat Dollars but they are mistaken in now thinking they are SAFE. For US Dollars are no longer "cash". They are interest free loans to the FED and they are depreciating at an ever increasing rate against real goods and services.

What we are now witnessing was long predictable. The inflationary policies of Central Bankers have created VAST and ever INCREASING pools of currency in the control of Hedge Funds, Insurance firms, Pension funds and the Trading Banks. These pools are now moving back to the US Dollar as they flee Gold/Euro/Commodities. We cannot predict how long they will hold the Dollar but we can say with certainty that they will move again. This is guaranteed by negative real interest rates and ever greater fiat currency printing. And when they do move, the next swing in the pendulum will be even greater than this one. So far we have not heard from Wage Earners and Pensioners. But we soon will. They will demand Cost of Living increases. That is next. The demand for currency can only increase.

So the question tonight for those holding so called CASH (which is guaranteed to buy them a lot less next year) is how to TIME their exit. The next move away from the US Dollar will be even more shocking than the current move into it.[/b]

The only SAFE place to be in these uncertain times is GOLD.

The swinging of the pendulum is designed to shake you out of your gold holdings. Remember this: Gold was not chosen to be money by fiat. It has earned its reputation over 5000 years of human experience. And sad to say, it is at times of stress and turmoil that it has proven itself over and over.

Cheers from Auckland, Ed

More from Ed in Kiwi Territory:

Hi Bill:

To follow up my comments of yesterday concerning the movement of Hot Money around the world, I think we should look at the effects this will have on other countries besides the USA. The Euro, Aussie and New Zealand Dollars are all down approx 10% from their highs. These areas have been protected until now from rising energy prices.

Here in New Zealand we have seen our currency rise from 38.5 cents to 70c over the past few years. Imports have grown faster than exports and we now run a large trade deficit. The prices of a lot of goods have dropped significantly yet we still have inflation. Now with a falling currency (62c today) we will see rising inflation caused mainly by rising fuel prices. This will put pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise short term rates. Probably the same in Australia.

In other words the interest rate spread between the USA and other countries may not change. Hot Money will be tempted once again to flee the US Dollar with 1% yields compared to our 5%+ yields here or in Australia. So far Greenspan has only hinted (slightly) that US short term rates are going up and look at JPM-down $6 off its high. I don't think the Fed can raise
rates. The mountain of interest rate related derivatives would collapse.

What has shocked everyone is the size of the drops in gold/silver and the shares. This volatility can go both ways. Watch your $6 rule. We may soon see $10 a day jumps in Gold because there is no doubt Hot Money has been in Gold and the shares. They may want back in FAST. The HUI can go up 10+ points at the open.

Finally to add to my comment yesterday about holding so called US Dollar "cash". As Hot Money moves in and out of Gold the US Dollar price of Gold and Gold shares will change violently. Don't measure the change in your FORTUNE by the US Dollar valuation after each swing but rather by the number of Gold ounces or shares you hold. In the end you don't want to be left holding a bag of fast depreciating US Dollars.

You want Gold.

Cheers again from Auckland.
Ed

Mihaly on the Swiss central bank gold sales:

Hi bill,

Swiss National Bank(SNB) gold sales almost done!

Here some information from our Swiss friends. As we know, the Swiss are selling a big chunk of their reserves (1300 tonnes). At the end of 2003, they sold 956.9 tonnes which would leave them with 343.1 tonnes available for selling in the future(annual report 2003).

However, in a report from the GFMS (http://www.gfms.co.uk/Market%20Commentary/newcbga.pdf), the GFMS reacts to the new Gold Agreement from march 8th 2004 made by the central banks.

They say: "This time round, the Swiss will have a residual 130 tonnes to sell and the United Kingdom is out of the picture altogether (indeed the UK Treasury in not signing up to the second CBGA has explicitly ruled out any further sales)."

According to this statement, the Swiss sold 213.1 tonnes in the first 3 months of 2004. So the Swiss are with 130 tonnes left to sell…almost done! The Swiss have been providing large amounts of physical gold for the market in the last couple of years, in excess of 200 tonnes a year the last 3 years. This extra supply will stop, and stop soon.

Their gold reserves dropped from 2806.1 tonnes in 1997 to 1400.3 tonnes at the end of 2003. With the selling probably completed this year, it would leave the Swiss with 1057.2 tonnes of gold, a huge drop of 1750 tonnes in 8 years. The chances of further selling looks very small.

Another point of interest are the lending operations. The SNB lends gold in 2 forms, secured lending and unsecured lending. The secured lending was introduced in 1999, and increased from 73.3 in 1999 to 104 in 2003. The unsecured lending decreased from its high, from 238.8 tonnes(2000) to 128.9 tonnes in 2003.

2003: The lending was Secured by a deposit of first-class securities with a market value of CHF 1,887.9 million. The value of the gold lend was CHF 1762.5 million.

Concluding, the SNB can lend 328 tonnes(limit from CBGA in 1999), but they decreased its lending instead of keeping it at 328. It decreased from 325.6 tonnes in 2000 to 233 tonnes in 2003.

So they decreased lending & the amount still lend was increasingly backed up by collateral. They certainly reduced their credit risc.[/u]

Looks like the Swiss will be at the sidelines in a few months...

Greetz
Mihaly

Gold supply continues to wane on balance:

Business Day – April 21

[u]AngloGold warns on lower earnings, output

The world's second largest gold miner AngloGold (ANG) warned that its adjusted headline earnings for the three-month period ended 31 March 2004 would be materially below adjusted headline earnings for the three-month period ended 31 December 2003.

The adjusted headline earnings AngloGold was referring to are headline earnings before unrealised non-hedge derivatives and fair value gains or losses on interest rate swaps….

The group also announced that it is anticipated that gold production for the first quarter of 2004 will be 11% below that of the previous quarter, when the company produced 1.389 million ounces of gold.

The lower production is broadly in line with AngloGold's expectations, the company said in a statement.

The decline in quarterly gold production is due to the usual slow start to production during the first quarter of the year, following the Christmas break and the year-end shut down of mining operations in South Africa.

Lower grades at AngloGold's Geita operation in Tanzania, following the unusually high grades reported in the last quarter of 2003, also knocked total output during the quarter.

Another reason for the reduction in AngloGold's output was the fall in production at the Morila gold mine in Mali, as a result of lower ore throughput and grade.

However, ore throughput is expected to increase at Morila in the future once a new plant extension has been commissioned.

Finally, lower production at the Cerro Vanguardia mine in Argentina, due to a planned reduction in ore throughput, also lowered AngloGold's quarterly output….

-END-

Teil I

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

ACCESSing a selling climax?

Wednesday, April 21, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $10.46, PM $13.14, with world gold at $390.40 and $389.90. Far above legal import point. An Indian correspondent informs me that some credit limits in the Indian bullion importing trade have maxed out, a measure of the steepness of acceleration in the pace of business. Holding gold below $400 is going to require a great deal of physical.

TOCOM on opening at 8PM NY time encountered world gold around $393, $4.60 below the NY close, and $6 below the previous Japanese close. Although this must have been an unpleasant development for leveraged futures players and has to have triggered liquidation, there were buyers around. In the end the active contract closed down 11 yen, virtually where it opened, and open interest slipped only 468 Comex lots, to equal 116,983 Comex. Volume surged 220% to the equivalent of 56,323 Comex lots, and world gold went out at $392.75. (NY yesterday traded 50,354 contracts; open interest fell 5,026 to 255,395.)

During the last hour of trading yesterday – long after the Comex close - gold shares staged one of their most dramatic declines in recent memory. Not coincidently, heavy selling via the ACCESS system then sent gold down very steeply, such that, as noted above, prices were far below the NY close by the time any market likely to be a net buyer had opened. Heavy activity on ACCESS, particularly selling, is always dubious. Belying its name, only a few large operators can use the system, and for much of the time the only global counterparty is the Pacific Ocean. Australia, the first overseas market to open, is of course a natural seller. Observation suggests that ACCESS is mainly used, when actively traded, to groom or guide the market in favor of pre-established positions. (An additional advantage is that European based commentators, for whom this is the middle of the night, frequently assume the prices they see in their morning are Asian, rather than US- motivated.) Most likely this was the case on Tuesday.

If the objective was create downward momentum, it failed. Gold has repeatedly bounced off $390, and looks inclined to trade above the ACCESS close. Considering the huge premiums being paid in the largest buying market, this is not a surprise.

Of course, there is a reasonable case to be made that commodities in general are seriously overbought, especially if a slow-down in China becomes pronounced. (There has been no evidence of heavy Chinese involvement in gold.) But gold tested its 200 – day moving average today, while most commodities are still way above. The huge selling which blocked the attempt to break into new high territory at the start of April also prevented a seriously over bought situation arising. Furthermore, open interest is down over 50,000 contracts from the recent high, being in fact not far from the 230-240,000 range at which it bottomed in February. These technical data support what studying the physical prices also suggest: gold is not to be lumped in as another commodity.

JB

John later reported today’s gold volume was enormous at 88,000 with 25,000 of that coming in the last half hour.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

April 21 - Gold $390.80 down $6.60 - Silver $6.14 down 76 cents

Bad Day At Black Rock

Zitat

Within each of us is a hidden store of energy. Energy we can release to compete in the marathon of life. Within each of us is a hidden store of courage. Courage to give us the strength to face any challenge. Within each of us is a hidden store of determination. Determination to keep us in the race when all seems lost
...Roger Dawson (The 13 Secrets of Power Performance)

GO GATA!!!!!

Sometimes I wish I paid more heed to what I am hearing from my sources. Our STALKER source informed us two weeks ago that The Gold Cartel was planning a major assault on gold and silver, and that’s just what has happened. Clearly, the planted newspaper articles and European central bank talk of selling gold was all part of an orchestrated plan to calm gold and silver down. It has worked thus far.

Gold was battered early, tried to rally by clawing its way back to $395, but the rally failed and it ended the day ten cents above its 200-day moving average of $390.70.

What has transpired over the past two weeks to give gold and silver such ulcers?

The reasons to own gold actually improved over the past couple of weeks, not deteriorated. However, as we have seen over the past years, the greater the reasons for the gold price to go higher, the greater the effort by the cabal to knock it down. Once again, The Gold Cartel has been true to form. They won this battle. The most powerful and richest people in the world have made their point, for the moment. In no way were they going to allow free market forces to defeat their collective wisdom and might.

The question which I cannot answer is whether this is an attempt to smash gold and silver so The Gold Cartel can cover part of their short positions, or do they intend to continue their scheme until it blows up? The same crowd doesn’t seem to have any sort of realistic strategy to exit Iraq, nor is there any end in sight to growing US deficits. Why should their gold scheme be any different? The answer lies in the amount of physical gold they have left to play their games. If GATA is correct about the size of the gold loans, they know their end game is in sight, like it or not! To some degree this has to have them troubled.

The gold open interest dropped 5026 contracts to 255,395 and is now down about 50,000 off its highs.

Silver has been a nightmare as it left its 5th gap to the upside (four of them HUGE) and has fallen far further than I ever thought it would. The big shorts and cabal members who have manipulated silver for so many years have cleaned up again by adding to their positions up to $8.46. What we have now is margin call selling and sheer panic liquidation that continues to pick up steam. Ironically, silver’s 200-day moving average is at $5.81, right above the breakaway gap it left at $5.80.

I know the silver demand input which was brought to your attention the past three months was right on, so what went wrong SO FAR? Don’t know. Like in gold, we are dealing with the most powerful people in the world. Who knows what they did to come up with enough silver to crush the price and take the pressure off the short side positions. Did they even come up with the silver, or did they just gamble they would win their Comex derivatives short play?

The real question now is where will the price of silver be in a month? If silver is not knocking on its recent highs by early summer, then the market is nowhere near as bullish as I think it is. However, if after this washout, silver is soaring again, then we will know this was a brutal technical raid designed to wipe out the specs.

Some factors to consider about what is going on out there relating to precious metals:

*Grudgingly the Bush Administration and the Fed are being forced to reveal prices in the US are taking off in many areas, thus the .5% CPI number. The delayed PPI comes out tomorrow now that the hedonic players have had time to make their adjustments.

*The dollar has moved somewhat higher in anticipation of higher US rates. The long rates have moved up, but not the key US Fed Funds rate. Meanwhile, other factors affecting the dollar continue to deteriorate. The US trade, budget and current account deficits continue to balloon. How can this be dollar friendly in the intermediate term?

*The geopolitical scene in Iraq and the Mid East is a mess. Iraq appears to be headed into complete anarchy. The US is going to have to send many more troops to have any chance of calming down the chaos. This will further exacperate US financial matters and cannot be good for the dollar either.

Now, there is talk of a draft to fight terrorism as a result of the US’s misguided effort to bring democracy to Iraq. What kind of democracy? The Shi'-ites are the majority. Will they be allowed to rule IF there are free elections? If not, what kind of democracy is that should they win free elections? What a horror show this is for the US, one which we will have to deal with in the months to come.

*Greenpsan speaks and says deflation is dead and only alludes that interest rates might rise. Should that have surprised one person in the investment world with what costs are doing in the US? Meanwhile, the Fed has actually done nothing. Today, Greenspan backed off even further from any kind of interest hike pitch, yet hedge funds and others began dumping commodities with a vengeance.

Platinum closed down $32 to $896.
Palladium closed down $20 to 304.
May Copper closed at $1.224 down 8.3 cents.
May Soybeans fell to $9.35 per bushel, down 17 ¾ cents.

The CRB was clobbered to 269.29, down 6.09.

The dollar closed at 91.42, up .67 and the euro lost .63 to 118.26. The bullish consensus on the euro has fallen all the way to 19, which is awfully low, especially considering the horrendous dollar fundamentals. The Canadian dollar bullish consensus of 17 is even worse.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Teil II

Well, here is a wonderful follow-up to that email, one from a European Café member that suggests the ECB is lying, just as the IMF has lied about the true status of central bank gold reserves.

Hi bill,

The story in yesterdays Midas about a Scandinavian central bank was shocking imo. So, it's the right time to keep the pressure on them. That's why I want to share with you the following information. I wanted to wait for the annual reports of the Central Banks of 2003, but my guess now is the time.

Let me first start with an email I send some time ago to the ECB.

Dear mister/miss,

I have a question about gold. I would like to know if the ECB knows what the current amount(ounces) of gold loans and gold swaps are at the local central banks within the Euro zone.
The reason why I ask this question, is that IMF accounting treats the swaps/loans as an asset on the balance sheet of the central banks. In all the balance sheets of the Local Central Banks, the amount of loans/swaps/repo's regarding gold is not specified.

1. Do you know the exact amount of gold loans/swaps/repo for each Local Central Bank.

2. If you do, could u give me the answer to that question?

3. If you don't know it, isn't it something you want to know.

4. Did the ECB ever check the physical amount in the vaults recently?

5. Is the gold given to the BIS or IMF still accounted as an asset on the local balance sheet, or is it withdrawn from the 'goldreserve' amount and stated separately?

Kind regards,

mihaly

There answer was:

Dear Mr,

You might wish to notice that the vast majority of the Eurosystems' NCBs does not actively manage their gold holding and therefore the question of volume of such transactions does not materialise at the level of the ECB.

With regard to the checks of the physical gold holdings, the ECB's financial statement is subject to audit by internal audit, external auditors and the European Court of Audit (ECA), which would apply "existence-checks" to all material asset categories, including gold, on a regular basis.

The amount of gold transferred to the IMF, for example as initial subscriptions, would reduce the gold holding of a central bank. The claim vis-a-vis the IMF as a result of such transfer is reported in the balance sheet of the Euro System under A2.1 "Receivables from the IMF" (see also the descriptions of balances sheet items in Annex IV of the Legal Framework for Accounting and Reporting (ECB/2000/18).

With kind regards,

ECB PRESS AND INFORMATION

The strange thing is that nobody signed the email, just 'ecb press and information'..

The sentence "the vast majority of the Eurosystems' NCBs does not actively manage their gold holding" is well worth checking. So let's check the euro countries(Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain).

Most of the information is from the annual reports(2001 or 2002) of the local central banks.

Austria 317.5 tonnes

Within the permissible framework, the OeNB conducts an active gold policy, reinforcing the effectiveness of its expertise and making considerable additional profit.

This item comprises the OeNB_s holdings of physical and nonphysical gold, which amounted to approximately 347 tons on December 31, 2001.

Moreover, the OeNB reports liabilities outstanding on unmatured gold/interest rate swaps involving 27.9 tons of gold.

The OeNB actively manages a large part of its remaining gold holdings, with a view to gaining additional revenue, but also with a view to keeping abreast of market developments and ensuring adequate flexibility.

So Austria does active manage 'a large part of its gold holdings'.

Belgium 257.8 tonnes

An email from the Belgium Central Bank stated that any information about the goldloans is confidential. Questions from the BNB shareholders about the goldloans/swaps were not answered(confidential). However, last year it was stated during the annual shareholders meeting the there were only a few kilograms left in the vault.

So it is safe to say that Belgium actively manages it's gold.

Finland 49.0 tonnes

In 2001 I asked the Bank of Finland if they had goldloans. They said: "unfortunately we don't have any gold loans at the Bank of Finland, only thing regarding gold is what we have in reserve assets (=gold and gold receivables)."

2002 Annual report:

The Bank’s gold reserves amount to 50 metric tons, half of which is invested. This corresponds to the level at which the Bank of Finland maintained its gold deposits in September 1999, when the Bank of Finland was one of the 15 European NBCs that agreed to restrict their gold sales and deposits.

So Finland does manages 50% of it's gold(25 tonnes) in short term deposist.

France 3,024.8 tonnes

An email I send some time ago stated: "You ask us of the amount of goldloans at the moment. It is not possible to give you this amount, but as we told you before you can have some answers on our website (in the french version)."

Offcourse I tried to find the numbers, but was not able to find them(my french is not that good).[/b][/color]

No hard evidence….

Germany 3,439.5 tonnes

Our 'friends'….I searched on their site many many times….but my German is not that great.

The annual report from 1998 states:

As in previous years, the gold is valued at its purchase price; consequently, the average value per ounce works out at DM 144. The item ªGoldº also includes claims arising from gold lending operations, which are conducted on a limited scale only.

However, indirect evidence about the swaps was often stated by GATA. So what was their response when I asked if they actively manage their gold holding (like loans, swaps/repo or deposits):

Dear,

Unfortunately we can not reply your question because of the fact that we deal with this topic very carefully.
regards,

DEUTSCHE BUNSDESBANK

Not much hard evidence….but the answer says enough imo. If they didn't, they would probably say it outright(Even if the number was low, like it was in 1998).

Greece 102.2 tonnes

Unable to find anything

Ireland 5.5 tonnes

The Bank holds a small portion of its assets in gold — gold holdings were valued at Euro63.1 million as at end-December 2002. With the exception of coin stocks held in the Bank, gold is held in the form of gold deposits.

Ireland does manages it's gold with deposits(100%).

Italy 2,451.8 tonnes

Unable to find anything

Luxembourg 2.3 tonnes

As at 31 December 2002, BCL holds 365.75 ounces of fine gold amounting to EUR 0.1 million (76 358.757 ounces of fine gold amounting to EUR 24.0 million as at 31 December 2001) and a first rated gold bond issued by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development purchased in 2002 and valued at EUR 24.8 million.

So at the end of 2002 they had 365.75 ounce or 100.000 euro of fysical gold and a gold bond??. Seems like the gold was used as collateral(76.000 ounces left the vault in 1 year and is still accounted in the reserves), and they probably get a nice return from this bond.

Luxenbourg manages its reserves actively.

The Netherlands 800.5 tonnes

They had 60 tonnes left in the vault at the end of 2000. Central Bank president Wellink stated in a Dutch tv program that 1 billion euro of gold was in the vault as of sept/oct 2003.

At the end of 2002 the total gold holdings were valued at almost 9 billion euros. So 11% of the Dutch gold is in de vault….and probably a bit less, since the 1 billion amount was at a higher gold price.

The Dutch central bank actively manages its reserves.

Portugal 517.2 tonnes

We know this story….The Central Bank of Portugal was the only bank breaking down the swap/deposit figures in its annual report. At the end of 2001, they held 1.7 billion at the bank, 533 million euro on deposit and was 3.862 billion swapped. So 71% left there vault.

The central bank of Portugal actively manages its reserves.

Spain 523.4 tonnes

Sales of gold against foreign currency under repurchase agreements are recorded as off-balance sheet items, with no effect on the balance sheet.

…the number of ounces having remained unchanged during the year, except for slight differences arising from deposit and swap transactions.

Decline in the outstanding gold swaps position at year-end –140.46 million euros.

The Spanish central bank actively manages its reserevs.

***
So, "the vast majority of the Eurosystems' NCBs does not actively manage their gold holding", doesn't make that much sense. Maybe their definition is different..:

Austria, Belgium, Finland, Ireland, Luxenbourg, The Netherlands, Portugal and Spain have large portions of their reserves on deposit, repoed, swapped or something else, but in any case NOT in their vault.

Then we have Germany, who doesn't want to respond to the questions, but did it in the past on a small level. France is probably active, but looks like a small player. Italy & Greece are not known, since I couldn't find any information.

Greetz
Mihaly
Mr-gold@chello.nl

Good work Mihaly. This adds credence to my notion the establishment central bankers are in a huff trying to figure out how to handle a looming and most serious gold problem.

More on the Rothschild exit:

Bill,

Last week I sure picked an interesting time to take a vacation. I enjoyed reading your take yesterday on the current situation. I have one additional idea in regards to Rothschilds withdrawal from the commodity markets.

First, consider that the House of Rothschild has been rich for centuries. They are born rich, grow up rich and die rich. I have no doubt that they consider themselves to be members of some type of aristocracy. Grubbing for money is certainly not their style and I doubt they would stoop to the legal level of criminal conduct.

As I think about the shortages for delivery that exist in silver and gold (these are legal contracts to deliver, after all), we may have reached the point where a careful cartel participant may feel the LEGAL line of fraud is about to be crossed. How can you make a promise to deliver what you don't have? Of course, if you don't expect anyone to ask for delivery, than the risk is slight. But that is not where we are
now.

I'm sure their own attorneys told them to save their skins and completely cut their ties to the scam. The Rothschilds haven't stayed rich for so long by making of themselves fat targets for avenging lawyers. Whatever the real story is, this is a sign of the strain the cartel is under today.
Peter Rhalter

The gold shares were brutalized, especially after Greenspan spoke. The HUI collapsed 14.36 to 197.36, breaking through all support, and the XAU dropped 5.24 to 89.26. The set up for giant gold and silver moves higher improves by the week. At the moment, hedge funds, et al, are dumping the shares and everything else they can to shore up liquidity and their balance sheets. Mindless selling has the gold share market in a tizzy.

When gold craps out like this, all sorts of emails come my way. One suggested I was nothing but a cheerleader for gold. I plead guilty. It’s true. I think I have called every rally the past three years and missed calling every dip. The reason for that is clear. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity. I know why the price of gold fell to where it was years ago, why it rallied to these levels, and where it is going. "When" is always the tricky part. Not to be on board when the prices of gold and silver really soar would be a tragedy. Don’t want to take that chance. The upside is too large, the downside not that great. Trading in and out to make a few bucks is not worth the risk to me of being out of position.

It’s no different than what a Warren Buffet would do. Find a compelling investment out of favor, do your homework, and if the homework supports your opinion, jump in and hang on, for years, until that investment plays itself out to where it ought to go. As we all know, hanging on can be the difficult part at times.

My role is not to be an investment advisor, but to report on what is happening in the gold and silver world and deliver Café members as much useful information as possible. At the same time, I don’t mind giving my opinion and mentioning what shares I like and putting my own money in. I have been long the gold/silver shares for years now and continue to add on dips. My positions continue to increase. Days like this are sobering, however, this kind of pain has not lasted for any substantial length of time since gold took out $300.

Time to stay focused on the big picture. Gold is going to $1,000 per ounce plus. Silver to $40 per ounce+. Our REALLY big days and fun are still ahead of us.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Bill,

I’m not a Chicken Little "The Sky is Falling" type, but this strikes me as serious. Did an Internet search on this, found nothing. Couldn’t find any news coverage on this other than following article. Not directly precious metals related but still a newsworthy heads-up.
Dick Schurman

Found in today's Philadelphia Inquirer - scary
Agents look for missing tanker truck

FBI and counterterrorism officials said it was stolen in Pennsauken this month.

By Sam Wood and Jennifer Lin
Inquirer Staff Writers
Posted on Tue, Apr. 20, 2004

The FBI and a New Jersey state counterterrorism team are investigating the reported theft of a 44-foot gasoline tanker this month from a Camden County parking lot.

"We don't know what the motive was behind the theft," FBI spokeswoman Linda Vizi said. "It could have been stolen by another individual in the fuel-hauling business.

"But we feel it's important to find it, find out who took it, and find out why it was taken."

The chrome-plated tanker, which can hold more than 9,000 gallons, was empty when stolen from the TK Transport Terminal in Pennsauken between April 8 and April 12, Pennsauken Police Capt. Earl Griffin said.

"They didn't notice it missing for a few days," he said.

A woman who answered the phone at TK Transport would not comment.

The tanker, with "TK Transport" in large green letters along its sides, was made in 1996 by Fruehauf and recently refurbished, Griffin said. It bore New Jersey licence plate T852SC.

The New Jersey Office of Counterterrorism sent a notice about the tanker to all law enforcement agencies in the state Wednesday, director Sid J. Caspersen said.

"It's naturally of concern to all of law enforcement when a gas tanker truck goes missing," he said. "Since 9/11, we've known that al-Qaeda has wanted to use those. Al-Qaeda has expressed an interest in a variety of targets around the world, and they've mentioned gas tankers before.

"They've mentioned attacks against gas stations using gas tanker trucks as bombs," he said.

Caspersen noted that in May 2002, a remote-control device was used to explode a tanker truck in Israel's largest fuel depot. No one was hurt, but the Tel Aviv attack underscored terrorists' interest in oil targets, he said.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Markets, being what they are, sure act strangely at times. Alan Greenspan spoke before the Senate Banking Committee this afternoon, said just what you would expect him to say, and the stock market was roiled.

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the threat of deflation is ``no longer an issue'' for the U.S. and companies appear to have a greater ability to raise prices.

``It is fairly apparent that pricing power is gradually being restored,'' Greenspan said in response to a question on the economy from Senator Richard Shelby, an Alabama Republican, at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on the banking industry. ``Threats of inflation that were a significant concern last year by all indications are no longer an issue before us. Clearly it is a change that has occurred in the last number of weeks.''

–END-

The DOW sank 123 to 10,314, while the DOG was hit for 42 big ones to 1978. With the macro US financial picture and US geopolitical looking so bleak, it is been hard for me to fathom why the US market was going up anyway. This sell-off cannot have had much to do with what Greenspan said on the surface.

Dave Lewis uses his considerable banking background (including JPM) to give us more appropriate insight into Greenspan’s testimony this afternoon:

Bill,

Let me try my hand at translating a bit of the Chairman's mystical musings.

All told, the available data, industry and supervisory judgments, and the long and successful experience of the U.S. commercial banking system in dealing with changing rates suggest that, in general, the industry is adequately managing its interest rate exposure. Many banks indicate that they now either are interest-rate neutral or are positioned to benefit from rising rates. These views are based partly on specific steps that they have taken to adjust portfolios and partly on judgments about the effects that rising interest rates would have in easing pressure on interest margins. That is, many banks seem to believe that as rates rise--presumably along with greater economic growth--they can increase lending rates more than they will need to increase rates paid on deposits. Certainly, there are always outliers, and some banks would undoubtedly be hurt by rising rates. However, the industry appears to have been sufficiently mindful of interest rate cycles and not to have exposed itself to undue risk.

The first sentence, with its reference to the long and successful experience of the US commercial banking system in dealing with changing rates, tells me Greenspan has a very short and /or selective memory or did he forget 1994, which was but a mere speed bump in the interest rate hiking game, or the 1989-91 credit crunch, which certainly had Chase, Citi, Chemical etc. on the ropes, just to name a few interest rate changing periods within my direct experience.

The second through the fourth sentence suggests: 1) that the banks are at worst interest rate neutral, a very curious position for institutions that borrow short and lend long 2) here's the kicker, that the banks will hike lending rates faster than they will hike deposit rates. Great, in the midst of a jobless, real income declining economy for the average Joe, the banks will now pad their pockets with additional lending profits on your deposits without sharing the wealth. I think we should start calling easy Al by his de facto title, the chief lobbyist for the banking sector, the most protected industry in America.

The last sentence reminds me that but a few short years ago the Fed Chairman was the premier pied piper of the new economy. Look back at his speeches in the late 90s and 2000 and you will see the word technology featured prominently. Yes, technology assisted productivity was the wave of the future, until it all went pear shaped during 2000. Methinks easy Al's forecasting skills haven't changed much over the past few years. He thought Tech was it (Nasdaq 5000 to 2000, oops), he recently thought the economy was nearing deflation (Oil etc. at record highs, oops) and now he would have you believe that the banks haven't exposed themselves to undue risks. I guess we'll call that last one begging an oops.

regards

Dave Lewis
http://www.chaos-onomics.com

Meanwhile, the economic news out of Germany was disappointing:

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- German investor confidence fell for a fourth straight month in April, further evidence a recovery in Europe's biggest economy is failing to gain momentum.
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research's index of institutional investor and analyst sentiment fell to 49.7, the lowest since July, from 57.6 in March. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected a drop to 57. The index, which has a long-term average of 34.4, touched a 42-month high in December.
``A lot of people fear economic growth will weaken,'' said Ralph Solveen, a senior economist at Commerzbank AG, who expected the index to fall to 45. ``Compared to the world economy, Germany will have a very weak recovery.'' –END-

But, there is no inflation:

WLM WLM raises polyester staple fiber prices by 10-12% (7.76)
The increase follows an increase of 8-10% that was effective with shipments on 2/15. WLM cites increased raw material costs

30 KFT KFT says it will pass higher commodity costs through to consumers through price increases -- conf. call (31.39)

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed took no action today April 20th 2004. This caused the repo pool to slip a bit to $31.33 and supports my assessment that the Fed is satisfied that the DOW will track flat to up for a while.

Shorting the DOW stocks is a very risky venture these days as the Fed has a booster rocket fuelled with repos under them. I have no information about whether the NASDAQ or other indexes are similarly managed however, I believe they are sympathetically linked so if the Fed controls one, it controls the other.

Recall that the control isn't direct. It's more like an adjustable bias, sometimes gentle, sometimes very strong and always several layers removed from the public eye. Indeed, if you desire useful investment information regarding the forces that move markets you must look away from the visible indicators because those oft-touted metrics (interest rates, earnings etc.) have become unreliable. It's a mutated market, warped by government intervention and it can't react in a classical fashion.

This is why conventional technical analysis has not delivered for its ever faithful supporters. Many contrarian funds that predicted a DOW fall are hurting and left to scratch their heads over its seemingly unstoppable rise. In a manipulated market the indexes move when the paper wielding controllers want them to move.

The limit comes when un printable commodities such as gold become scarce due to official central bank selling. For example, we see recently that Albania and the United Arab Emirates have been coerced into selling the last of their gold bullion. They join a long list of countries like Portugal and Romania (they each still retain some bullion) that have sold off their gold.

Given the dire budget deficit straights into which US finance has entered, these vault-draining acts are, in a real sense, delusional. What magic tooth fairy will rescue the US from its imbalance of trade? What white knight will rescue investments diluted in arising sea of fiat money? Iraq's oil? For openers the law of unintended consequences is in play as the economic world is interconnected. That interconnection will yield a backlash more than sufficient to off-set any putative Iraq oil gains. The best-laid plans of the Fed aren't good enough to thwart the forces of price discovery.

As gold is hammered by more official central bank selling today an extraordinary buying opportunity presents itself...but only to those who choose to see it. In purchasing gold you are placing your faith in the ultimate corruption of governments...a bet that has historically never lost.
Mike

And again with this report just in:

Hi Bill:

The DIVG held its ground at 349.50 today, a surprising outcome given the cartel's hammering on gold and silver. I opined last week that the DIVG's points would cluster around 353. With about a week to go in the normal DIVG cycle the points are falling at 350. I'm not giving up on 353 though so we yet may see a higher DIVG with points around 358 or so to yield a 353 net cluster average.

In any event examine the almost perfect linear trace of the DIVG's 200-day moving average:

http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis.

This DIVG pattern, combined with the three previous defended "tops" simply cannot be the result of random market operations. The gold cartel is blaring at us, "We have capitulated at the former defense level of 323". "We can't accept the losses sustained down there and we are going higher AS A GROUP". They are telling us that the DIVG itself has now been adjusted to deliver a smoothly rising DIVG 200-day ma by varying the gold price and the MCDI.

Add to this conclusion the recent Financial Times anti-gold, childish tantrum, Weltke's departure and your European central bank feedback and we have one of the most extraordinary gold buying opportunities that I can remember.
Mike

Chuck checked in early:

Obviously we are close to the tipping over. Realistically, we must allow for 195 or so in the HUI, but it looks like the interest rates are ready to jack up here. All in all, it is scary.

I can't believe how many unfilled gaps we have on the golds from the top of their moves in December. Let's see if the 200 moving average kicks in here. Chuck

Quote of the day in London’s Independent:

Brigadier Nick Carter said it could take British troops between two and 10 years to restore long-term stability, under the authority of an Iraqi police force acceptable to all rival factions within the country.

"We are in cloud-cuckoo land if we think we are going to create overnight a police force that is accountable to the population," the officer told The Scotsman newspaper. "We have to build solid foundations now for the longer term."

-END-

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Hey Bill:

Not much to say except that the unthinking masses still do not get it that the dollar rally is temporary and that Sir Alan with his "no more deflation talk" today has just taken the punch bowl away from the party and spelled the end of the easy money days. Not that any of us who were watching what the Fed was doing to the money supply were ever in doubt that the deflation talk was nothing but a smokescreen in the first place for them to print money like it was going out of style. No currency in history has ever been systematically debauched like the Fed has done with the dollar and not had it result in inflation rearing its ugly head. Tragically, there are still many who believe the deflation talk nonsense.

The simple truth is that the stock market is in serious trouble and is breaking down technically. Bonds look like they have been beaten with an ugly stick. The way I see it, re-fi's have one last burst as holders of adjustable rate mortgages rush to lock in and then that gig is up. No more fuel for the consumer spending fire from that quarter. So what now? Order up some more credit cards and run those to the hilt? I don't think so. After all, how many credit cards can the average family run to the max at the same time?

The simple truth is that the consumer is tapped out and rising prices for necessities such as food, energy, and housing along with other costs such as insurance premiums and deductibles and college tuition costs, etc., not to mention state and local property taxes have placed enormous strains on household budgets and thus directly affected disposable income. We saw that with last's release of the CPI and the Real Wages numbers both of which were going in the opposite directions.

Greenspan and company have now done to this market what might be referred to as forcing them to go "cold turkey". Look for the withdrawal symptoms to begin manifesting in earnest as the bond vigilantes return in force and shove long term rates abruptly higher and the broad market indices begin to turn over. It is going to be interesting to see how the unwinding of the "carry trade" is going to affect the various market sectors as huge sums of money now begin to transition accordingly.

The S&P 500 turned over today and smashed thru last week's recent floor signaling that we are headed down to test the late March lows near 1087. Failure to hold that level will send the S&P down to the 1030-1050 area. Looks to me like the bear has awakened from hiberation just in time for the warm weather of spring and summer compliments of Greenspan and his bunch of sycophants at the Fed. I can say one thing - if Greenspan's talk of "no more deflation" sends the stock markets off the cliff and the bonds following after them and President Bush manages to get re-elected in spite of it, mark my words, HE IS GONE AS FED CHAIRMAN. The younger Bush well can remember what Greenspan did to his father's re-election chances back in 1992 with his interest rate policies. The current President prizes loyalty but he also does not forget his enemies either. In toying with the interest rates at this particular time of year, Sir Alan is seemingly preparing his own swan song especially if rising interest rates knock the housing sector off the wall and into the toilet. I personally despise the man and would be glad to see him go. The only problem is we will get someone just as bad and that brings no comfort whatsoever.

Judging from the reaction of both gold and silver in the after market hours on the Access, the witless mob has broken loose and escaped out of the nut house and is looking to lynch both the precious metals as they rush to embrace the dollar once again. Someone really needs to put a lasso on these people, handcuff them and lock them back up for their own good.

Seems like some never learn....

Best
Dan Norcini
dnorcini@earthlink.net

Yesterday’s email from Jaz was one of the most important I ever received in that it confirmed most of what GATA has discovered over the years – from someone who has never heard of GATA. Two of the key points mentioned:

*The europeans have probably lent out 80% of their central bank gold holdings, which is entirely consistent with GATA’s findings.

*For anyone to publicly discuss this issue is a career-ending move, which means anyone who tells the gold truth will be fired and left with nowhere to go.

Teil I

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

India buying

Tuesday, April 20, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.13, PM $10.84, with world gold at $400 and $398.30. Far above legal import levels. Monday: AM $10.57, PM $8.86, with world gold at $404 and $405. Also far above legal import levels. The Bears are going to have to supply large amounts of physical to India at current prices.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange also continues to show high premiums to world gold.

Combined yen/$US gold price action moved yen gold down to a 7-week low on TOCOM today. The locals showed limited interest: since Friday open interest rose the equivalent of 871 Comex lots to equal 117 421 Comex lots. Volume today was equivalent to 23,359 Comex contracts. (NY traded 34,926 contracts yesterday: open interest fell a fairly steep 5,931 contracts to 260,421 lots: down over 47,000 (15%) contracts from the peak.)

Zitat

“Gold has tested and held the 396 support level twice this morning. Physical gold demand is very strong at these levels particularly in India, the Middle East and Turkey.” (Mitsui New York comment today)

Clearly on recent downswings, the big liquidation of open interest – after all, a net quantum – happens when the fresh shorts cover, rather than, as popularly envisaged, as longs are forced out. On a conventional technical view, gold is now far less vulnerable – it may even be oversold.

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

April 20 - Gold $397.40 down $2.60 - Silver $6.92 down 26 cents

Mindless Selling Grips Gold, Silver And Especially The Shares

Zitat

"You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend to rout you out, and by the eternal God, I will rout you out! ..." President Andrew Jackson: To a delegation of bankers discussing the Bank Renewal Bill, 1832

Another crummy day in Paradise. And I thought yesterday was aggravating.

Gold and silver began to fall out of bed overnight as the euro and pound firmed. By the time Comex opened, they were on the floor. Slower reacting technically oriented funds began dumping their positions, taking gold down $5 and silver down 30 cents. Morgan Stanley and Dresdner Bank were featured gold buyers on the early break with Morgan Stanley showing up on the long side in silver.

After gold held $395, buyers became more aggressive, including some short-term oriented fund traders. However, rallies were short-lived and gold remained under pressure most of the session.

The gold open interest fell 5931 contracts to 260,421.

According to my floor sources, the "right kind of buyers" are stepping up to the plate. They like gold a lot down here.

The euro closed below its 200-day moving average of 118.96 at 118.87 at 3PM, however, it fell even further by 4PM, finishing at 118.46, down 1.51. The dollar finished the day at 90.75, up .64.

Silver was bombed again after recovering somewhat the past few sessions. Funds sold early with Morgan Stanley on the buy side again. However, just as silver was about to take off above $7.04, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and HSBC "collectively" mugged it for a dime and silver never recovered.

The silver open interest fell only slightly to 111,205, down 138 contracts. Silver made a new low close for this correction and has left 4 gaps on the upside. There is a tiny one around $8.20, however, the others are huge. On the way up to $8.46, silver only left a solitary gap, the breakaway one at $5.80. I expect all the upside gaps to be filled.

So what is going on with the precious metals?

Seems more and more apparent to me this is The Gold Cartel’s last hurrah attempt to flush out the gold/silver spec longs and then to turn them into shorts. Based on the biased negative gold articles by Bloomberg/FT, the Welteke/Bundesbank flap, discussion of increased Aussie gold producer hedging etc., it is clear there is a concerted effort by the establishment to trash both gold and silver. My take is that this is their last attempt to turn both markets bearish so The Gold Cartel and friends can cover as much of their shorts as possible before the price of both gold and silver explodes.

Furthermore, I believe the establishment is now slowly coming to terms with what they have done to gold by surreptitiously lending/swapping central bank bullion, which they know they cannot retrieve without all sorts of financial market repercussions, much less driving the price of gold up hundreds of dollars per ounce.

They have never had an exit strategy for what they have done and are now finally grappling with how to handle the problem. My guess also is the real reason Rothschild is leaving the bullion business is they are afraid of coming counterparty defaults which are sure to occur in the future (See Rhalter below). Their leaving solely due to lack of hedging business doesn’t cut it. They were in the gold business for two hundred years before hedging business became a factor in the 1980’s

Most everyone invested in gold, silver and the shares is very demoralized, which is just the way it should be before a market turnaround. Just in, sound familiar:

Hi Bill,

It is tough being a gold bug. The cartel certainly makes it difficult. They are really throwing everything at it now. They've even hired the FT and Bloomberg.

I've never been as discouraged about gold as I am at present but I guess we just need to hang in there.

Rgds,
Mario

You are not alone Mario. This is the Gold Cartel’s game plan and they are carrying it out. This is how it is done. Yet, as John Brimelow brings to our attention, with the cash gold market on fire, The Gold Cartel had better get their job done quickly. It will be very difficult for them to keep gold below $400 for very long with such strong demand for physical around the world.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://eur.i1.yimg.com/eur.yimg.com/i/de/fi/fi6.gif]

Yahoo hat die "600 Mio. Tonnen geplanter Bundes Bank Gold Verkäufe" Falschmeldung heute stillschweigend im Laufe des Tages korrigiert.

Jetzt stimmt die Zahl wieder, 600 Tonnen.

Nur, die korrigierte korrekte Zahl von 600 Tonnen wird leider nicht mehr gelesen, oder zur Kenntnis genommen!

http://de.biz.yahoo.com/040419/71/3zopb.html

Karl würde Dir gerne jetzt schon eine ausführlichere Antwort auf Deine verschiedenen gemachten Posting schreiben, doch ich habe leider keine Zeit dazu. Muss was dringendes erledigen.

Kann das meiste von dem was Du denkst nachvollziehen und auch bestätigen. Zur Zeitpunkt Bestimmung, nehme die mir bekannten Fundamentaldaten, damit kann ich die Wahrscheinlichkeiten einzelner Szenarien versuchen zu bestimmen. Persönlich bin ich geneigt zu glauben, dass das Ende unseres *Fiat Money* Systems, so wie wir es heute kennen, eher früher als später, eben in diesem Zeitrahmen von maximal 3-5 Jahren eintreten wird. Falls Du das letzte GATA Posting übersetzen konntest, und die darin gemachten Aussagen, vorläufig will ich sie noch als Gerüchte bezeichnen, zutreffend sein sollten, dann, wer weiss, erleben wir ein von Dir exakt beschriebenes Crash Szenario, sogar schon weit früher.

Eine Garantie dafür, dass ein *Fiat Money* Crash innerhalb von 3-5 Jahren wirklich kommt, das siehst Du auch absolut richtig, kann ich nicht definitiv abgeben. Du selbst kannst aber auf der anderen Seite genausowenig eine Garantie abgeben, dass wir eine Crash Situation noch während 3-5 Jahren mit Sicherheit nicht erleben werden. Es könnten unerwarte Ereignisse praktisch jederzeit die Fakten ändern.

Wenn wir und darauf festlegen können, dass *Fiat Money* nicht überlebensfähig ist, ist das übrigen schon sehr viel Übereinstimmung. Die allermeisten Anleger vertrauen dem System weiterhin fast uneingeschränkt, bis es zu spät sein wird sich darauf vorzubereiten, genauso wie Du es zutreffend beschrieben hast.

Es kann auch nicht Sinn und Zweck sein, dass wir alle gleichgeschaltet, identische Anlage Entscheidungen treffen, sondern es ist meiner Meinung nach hauptsächlich wichtig, dass man sich überhaupt darauf vorbereitet, und erkennen kann, dass etwas heranzieht, was unser Leben allgemein, und unsere Einschätzung dafür, was denn jetzt der genaue Wert von irgendwas sein wird, noch gewaltig verändern könnte.

Das Wichtigste ist meiner Meinung nach, dass wir uns überhaupt darauf vorbereiten, und abzusichern versuchen. Nicht zuletzt mit tangiblen Assets wie Gold, und Silber.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Nicht einmal die Bundes Bank selbst, scheint die genauen Auswirkungen der neuen Basel-II Regeln auf die Derivativ Positionen, und damit auf die Kreditrisiken im Bankensektor zu kennen.

Zitat

"Die makroökonomische Bedeutung dieser zunehmenden Marktfähigkeit sei aber nicht eindeutig zu bestimmen"

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://gfx.finanztreff.de/vwd_…l/kopfleiste/vwd_logo.jpg]

http://www.vwd.de/vwd/news.htm?id=22441722

Bundesbank: Kreditrisiken bleiben trotz Derivaten bei Banken

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones-VWD)--Die Banken bleiben trotz des zunehmenden Risikotransfers mit Kreditderivaten die Hauptträger der Kreditrisiken. Das zeige eine im Spätherbst 2003 durchgeführte Erhebung unter 10 deutschen Banken, schreibt die Bundesbank in ihrem Monatsbericht April. Der Handel mit Kreditderivaten sei zu 83% ein Interbankenmarkt, der Rest verteile sich zu etwa gleichen Teilen auf Versicherungsunternehmen, Hedge Fonds und sonstige Unternehmen. Die Bundesbank hatte die vier deutschen Großbanken und die Zentralinstitute der Sparkassen und Genossenschaftsbanken befragt, die die Märkte für Kreditderivate und Verbriefungen am intensivsten nutzten.

Der Umfrage zufolge schlossen deutsche Banken 67% ihrer Kontrakte über Kreditrisikotransfers mit ausländischen Banken ab. Hedge Fonds träten gegenüber den deutschen Banken dabei vor allem als Sicherungsgeber auf. Bei ausländischen Versicherern hingegen hielten sich die Positionen als Sicherungsgeber und -nehmer die Waage. Den Löwenanteil im Geschäft mit Kreditderivaten wickeln die Großbanken ab. Laut Bundesbank-Erhebung halten diese vier Institute rund 78% aller Kreditderivate. Einer Untersuchung der Ratingagentur Standard & Poor's, derzufolge nur 17 Banken 83% aller Credit Default Swaps hielten, habe ebenfalls eine hohe Konzentration bestätigt.

Das Nominalvolumen der Kreditderivate-Geschäfte aller befragten deutschen Banken beziffert die Bundesbank auf 566 Mrd EUR. Davon seien 303 Mrd EUR Sicherungsgeber- und 263 Mrd EUR Sicherungsnehmerpositionen. Die Sicherungsgeberposition entspreche damit 8% des Kreditvolumens der befragten Banken, die Sicherungsnehmerposition 7%. Der Marktwert der Derivate liege allerdings üblicherweise weit unter dem Nominalwert. Bei den Produkten dominieren die Credit Default Swaps mit einem Anteil von 89% an den Kontrakten. Credit Linked Notes kämen auf 6% und Total Return Swaps auf 5%.

Die Kreditrisiken werden laut Bundesbank unter anderem durch die Reform der Eigenkaptialunterlegungsvorschriften im Rahmen der Basel-II-Diskussion künftig an Marktfähigkeit gewinnen. Die makroökonomische Bedeutung dieser zunehmenden Marktfähigkeit sei aber nicht eindeutig zu bestimmen: Einerseits könne die Kreditvergabe der Banken durch die engere Verzahnung mit "nervösen" Finanzmärkten volatiler werden. Andererseits erhöhe sich durch die Möglichkeit der Ausplatzierung aber auch die Flexibilität der Banken im Umgang mit Kreditrisiken. Das könne wiederum zu einer Glättung der Kreditvergabe beitragen. +++ Frank Noetzel

Dow Jones Newswires/19.4.2004/fnö/hab

***

Hoffe Ihr habt alles ganz genau verstanden, was die Bundesbank zu den Kreditrisiken der Banken hier veröffentlicht hat. Falls das doch nicht so ganz der Fall ist, würde ich Euch dringend empfehlen endlich auch mal etwas physisches Gold, und Silber zu kaufen. Vielleicht einige goldene Krüger Rands? Die wären zudem auch noch schön anzusehen. Frauen sollen jedoch etwas mehr für Gold Barren schwärmen, hatte mir doch kürzlich ein Leser verraten.

Denjenigen die das ganze hin, und her Absicherungsgebilde durch Derivative bereits genau kennen, haben wohl zu ihrer eigenen Absicherung, bereits schon seit längerer Zeit physisches Gold und Silber gekauft.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach

Schlägt wieder "erbarmungslos" zu!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ftd.de/images/ft_logo_artikel.gif]

Aus der FTD vom 19.4.2004

Edelmetalle: Starker Dollar setzt Gold und Silber unter Druck

Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach ist Produktmanager Edelmetalle und Rohstoffe bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Frankfurt.

http://www.ftd.de/bm/ga/1082182980249.html?nv=cpm

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www2.cdn-news.com/images/logos/Glamis.gif]

APRIL 19, 2004 - 18:17 ET

Glamis Gold Reports Favorable Decision on Marigold Appeal

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0419152n.html

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]

$6 billion gold fraud busted

By: Gareth Tredway
Posted: 19-APR-04 00:00 GMT +2 © Mineweb 1997-2004

http://www.mineweb.net/fast_news/316904.htm

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]

Waiting for the China gold explosion

By: Peter Gonnella

Posted: 19-APR-04 00:00 GMT +2 © Mineweb 1997-2004

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/317009.htm

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOG showed signs of life, jumping 25 to 2020, while the DOW slipped 14 to 10,437.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $3.25 Billion today April 19th 2004, an action that raised the repo pool to $34.58 Billion and kept the bouncy turn back up looking odd. Recall that the past turns have been sharp and definite compared with the latest which has been hesitant and choppy.

The DOW is down a bit at this hour (11AM) and its 30-day ma still eases down in what appears to be a cycling action preparing to recapture its old linear trend.

Two-wheeler

A reader asked about the absolute pool level and why it hasn't risen with the Dow itself. My answer is that the Fed support situation is akin to a father supporting his daughter's first bicycle ride without training wheels. Almost all the "work" is done by the little girl until a problem develops and then the dad quickly shows up to rescue the day. Just the right amount of support is provided.

The above analogy isn't exactly fair because little girls learn to ride while the DOW has become dependent on the Fed to the degree that without the Fed the DOW would permanently fall to very low levels.

I continue to feel that the Fed is more worried about a DOW that runs up too fast and is careful not to add to much support.
Mike

Another one bites the dust:

Armenia sells its gold reserves

Yerevan. (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Armenia has sold the country's gold reserves of about 1.4 tonnes, the Bank told Interfax.

Details of the deal, which took place and the end of last year, are not being disclosed.

The Central Bank of Armenia's board decided to sell the reserves because of the high liquidity on the gold market over the past few years, the Bank's press service reported. "The high correlation between gold and the euro means that even without gold in international reserves the necessary level of diversification can be maintained and at the same time the yield of international reserves can be raised," the Bank said.

In recent years, gold reserves have remained unchanged at around 1,396 kg, which on October 1 2003 was estimated at $17.1 million (3.65% of Armenia's international reserves of $468.7 million). International reserves, already without gold, totaled $512 million on April 1 2004. –END-

From the horse’s mouth and a VERY appropriate follow-up to yesterday’s MIDAS:

Bill ....

Just got back from visiting my friend whose brother works for a European central bank. He called last weekend over the Easter holiday and answered some of the questions that I had left for his brother to ask. The silver buying he spoke of in December is still taking place in spite of hindrances from financial authorities. Their buying is confined to Europe but they are causing other Euro buyers to go to the Comex or other world sources as they continue to draw on local supplies. Most of the silver they have paid for remains in the hands of the dealers for now. The source can't or won't say who the buyer(s) are. He reiterated the importance of physical as they expect at least one major bullion/certificate dealer to face insolvency over this issue. He expects that we are only weeks away from a serious disconnect in the market.

Two significant issues concerning gold were addressed. The gold loans are far in excess of what the official numbers suggest (as you already know). He suspects that as much as 80% of the European held gold is out on loan or encumbered. This is a taboo subject as it would leave many Euro participants holding less than the minimum amount required for reserve purposes. He doesn't know for sure and does not think that anyone knows the whole picture. To talk of such issues is a guaranteed career-ending move. A revision of the Euro gold reserve requirements will confirm what you already suspect; something he feels we will see in the not too distant future.

One of the larger holders/dealers of Euro dollars is preparing to exit the trade after providing loans for over thirty years. They are winding down their modest US operations ahead of a huge move into gold. He would not say who but hinted that the answer can be found by seeing who is to close US offices. He could not say how much gold they will be buying other than;" a significant amount. They are concerned about punitive measures from US authorities. If you alert some of your contacts about this, you may be able to find out which fund or institution and the amount of US dollars they will be spending. In his estimation this will have a profound effect on the market. No time frame was given.

A little perspective on this info is in order. Much was said but I am getting it second hand and a week after the fact. There is also the issue of translation as the original conversation was not in English. Our source is a central banker and not a gold advocate. He is within the loop as an "XYZ" but plays a minimal role in making policy. He (and his superior) are disgusted with recent US federal reserve and IMF actions and to a lesser extent, those within the Euro community. He is within a Scandinavian country that has not as of yet accepted the Euro program. He claims that in spite of the IMF having a neutral position on Euro membership, the reality is they are very hostile to potential Euro members. They are also hostile towards expanded gold reserves and he says that they have a contingency plan to bring gold prices down to earth should they run away. The IMF is trying to promote to European central bankers and finance ministry officials a withholding tax to be imposed at point of sale to ensure that capital gains from gold sales do not go unreported . As far as he can tell, the plan is getting no support in Europe but suggests that Americans should be concerned. He says that American officials have already made recent rules concerning vendors that make this possible.

There is no doubt in his mind that gold prices are " managed "and he says that the IMF plays a substantial role for reasons that my friend did not clearly understand and was unable to relay to me.

Sincerely ..... Jax

Thanks Jax, some letter. It virtually confirms what GATA has been saying for more than five years. We are right on the money.

Houston’s Dan Norcini with a few quips:

It makes perfect and obvious sense to knock gold down $5.00 off the evening session highs given everything that has transpired the last two days? Unbelievable! Without knowing what GATA knows, not one whit of it would make the least sense.

Looks like the long liquidation continues - pretty good drop in OI again on Friday. We are getting down to some pretty low levels once again. I am thinking we might need to get down to 230,000 or so before we head back up again and move out of this consolidation pattern.

Dan

Another Texan, Derek Van Artsdalen from San Antonio:

Hi Bill,

It's been awhile since I updated the price of gold in S. African Rand, and I thought this weekend might be a good time to do it. We're right on the cusp of a major test point that I think your readers may want to know about, especially since I discovered something quite astounding. This could have big implications for the S. African mining company stocks, such as DROOY, GFI and others. These stocks could be shooting up in a big way almost immediately if the pattern I've identified continues to hold.

Here's a 3-year chart of the Rand price of gold through Friday, April 16.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/DVA041904.jpg]

According to StockCharts.com, the price of gold in Rand closed Friday at 2612.07 Rand per ounce. As shown before in "Midas," the price downtrend has been in play since as far back as December of 2001. I've drawn it here with a red line starting from the last major peak in the fall of 2002. However, the RSI and MACD internal indicators both show clear signs of strengthening, as indicated by the up-sloping turquoise trend lines.

Notice that the price as of Friday is now touching exactly on the major uptrend line (shown here in green). I've circled this point in pink and labeled it #3.

A lot of technical analysts have probably observed that when price touches a major support or resistance line for the third time in a symmetrical triangle without penetrating it, the price very often will bounce off the line and go zooming in the opposite direction. If the action is near the triangle's apex (as in this case) the price will often continue on and decisively break through the opposite trendline, thus providing resolution of the pattern and the beginnings of a new price trend.

In the chart above, the price of gold in Rand has now touched the green support line for the third time from the point of inception back in June 2001. I've circled all three occasions for easy reference. The interesting thing is, each time the Rand price of gold has touched the rising green support line it has blasted off in the opposite direction. The first time it happened, the price of gold in Rand rose about 600R. The second time it rose about 500R. These are some serious price movements on a percentage basis!

As of this past week, the Rand price of gold has now touched the green support line for the third time since its inception point back in '01. If we get the kind of reversal and price appreciation we've seen to date whenever this occurs, the Rand price of gold could be headed to more than 3000 Rand per ounce,taking the price line easily up and out of the symmetrical triangle and setting a new upward price trend in motion. Believe me, if this happens it won't escape the notice of the chartists around the planet, and it surely won't be lost on the executives of the S. African mining companies, who will then be watching their bottom-line profits skyrocket.

We already know from previous Cafe contributors that the price of gold is beginning to rise in terms of currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Lately, even the euro has been weak relative to gold. Can the Rand and other fiat currencies be far behind? I believe we'll have our answer to that question within the next six months or so. As far as the Rand price of gold is concerned, the answer may come much sooner...

Keep the heat on 'em, Bill. They're starting to squirm in their seats!
Derek

Attention: Bill Murphy, Le Metropole Café

CATCH 22

G’day Bill,

I read Jim Sinclair recent posting on the Café’.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/toulouse-lautrec_table.cfm? cfid=903378&cftoken=40831827&pid=3759

Jim reckons that Gold is head, in the long term, to US$ 1500 per ounce.

I read an article, probable compiled by Jim, some time ago that in order to "balance" the M3 Money Supply that the Gold price would have to equal US$1500 per ounce.

Silly me. "Balance" is an abstract word in today’s world, in the US Financial Markets. A "balance" of the books is not of course going to happen.

With the current financial regime, the long term prognoses is HYPERIFLATION, with an endless supply of paper M3 Money.

Either way, the US$ is caught is a "Catch 22" situation. On one hand, with HYPERINFALTION, the Gold price can only rise. One the other hand, in order to "balance" the M3 supply, the Gold price can only rise. Indeed a "Catch 22".

Add onto this the future demand for Gold, in particular the Eurasian Block. People really do not trust the US and its Government, they do trust Gold.

The escalating situation in Iraq will, unfortunately, be the grave-yard of many brave people, American and Iraqi. It will also be the grave-yard of the US$, and the catalyst to true freedom, Gold.

At what price is "Freedom"; it’s not in US$’s , but in Gold.

Oh to be a Geologist, with a nose for Gold!!
Och aye,
Haggis

Some tidbits from Mahendra:

….Today one of the Television companies from London is coming here to interview me concerning my work on the world financial markets after watching my work for quite some time.

I won’t take much of your time here. Few key predictions have come true from my book "2004 World & financial prophecies" since its launch in November 2003.

EURO TOUCHING $1.30
POUND 1.88 AGAINST THE US DOLLAR
GAINING OF YEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR. IT HAS ALSO STARTED GAINING AGAINST EURO (I
AM VERY KEEN TO SEE THIS FIGHT).
RISING OF METAL STOCKS IN EARLY 2004.
GOLD TOUCHING $433.
SILVER FINALLY REACHED $7.95.
PALLADIUM GAINED MORE THAN 50%.
PLATINUM CROSSING $900.
COPPER RISING IN EARLY 2004.
LIBYA MAKING FRIENDSHIP WITH THE WORLD.
INDIA-PAKISTAN CRICKET SERIES.
WINNING OF MBEKI IN RSA ELECTIONS.
MIDDLE EAST AND IRAQ WILL BRING UNHEALTHY SITUATION IN THE WORLD IN EARLY 2004.
MANY EARTH QUAKES IN FIRST QUARTER AND MANY OTHERS.

A few major ones are still pending and I am sure that they will be fulfilled in the pending 8 months. Here are a few:

GOLD $525 TO $580 AND SILVER $12 TO $14 IN 2004.

PALLADIUM WILL GAIN MORE THAN 300%.

DOWN JONES WILL COLLAPSE BELOW 7000 MARK ANY TIME AFTER 21 JUNE.

AFTER JULY INDIAN PRIME MINISTER ATAL BIHARI VAJPEE WILL NOT RULE INDIA AND IN COMING ELECTION NO PARTY WILL GET FULL MAJORITY.

SHARON WILL GO AROUND OR AFTER 15 MAY 2004.

BIG TENSION IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN THE MONTH OF APRIL AND MAY.

BANGLADESH WILL BE COVERED IN FLOODS AND WIPE OUT MORE THAN HALF OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE THIS YEAR BEFORE 4 AUGUST.

SOUTH AFRICAN RAND WILL COLLAPSE TO 8.75 IN THE YEAR 2004.

USA AND UK WILL LOSE BATTLE IN THE UNFINISHED WAR IN IRAQ BY THE IRAQI PEOPLE AND OPPOSITION WILL GROW STRONGER AGAINST BUSH AND BLAIR.

YES –I WILL SOON ANNOUNCE THE USA ELECTIONS RESULT. I HAVE DONE A DETAILED STUDY AND THE PREDICTION IS READY BUT NEGATIVE ASTROLOGICAL COMBINATION IS HOLDING ME TO PREDICT BECAUSE THE PREDICTIONS ON THE ELECTIONS LOOK SCARY.

Thanks & God Bless

Mahendra

Seabridge Gold, a staunch GATA supporter and one of my holdings, begins trading on the Amex tomorrow. This is a good play for those who believe the price of gold is going much higher because of their substantial gold resources.

The gold shares continue to diddle around in meandering fashion. The XAU lost .68 to 94.50 and the HUI gave up .84 to 211.72.

Today was frustrating. Such promise early turned into a dud for the most part. Tomorrow ought to be a better day.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!