Richmont Options Valentine Lake Gold Property
Beiträge von ThaiGuru
-
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ameinfo.com/images/ame_fn_logo.gif]
http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/37126.html
Wednesday, March 31 - 2004
Inflation, US dollar weakness, equities, gold and property
Markets are moved by events and constantly shift direction according to the latest news. But underlying trends move according to longer term cycles, and interact in ways that analysts can discern. Phil Thompson reports.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You can be quite certain that by the time most people have noticed an economic trend, such as low inflation, its time may already have past.
There are many indications that inflation is about to trend higher. Commodity prices from gasoline to steel have moved seriously higher in the past year or so. Now we know that there is a time lag between higher raw material costs and higher prices to the consumer.
Thus as 2004 progresses there will be more and more signs of consumer price inflation. It is already about 3% in China, the country that once exported low inflation to the world, and rising.
There is also a growing consensus of opinion that the Fed has left US interest rates too low for too long, fuelling up an asset price bubble in housing, and keeping consumer demand above where it should be at this stage of the business cycle. Any junior student of economics knows that when demand is above supply, prices rise.
Once the inflation genie is out of the bottle, it is very hard to get it back in again. A nasty combination of higher interest rates and higher taxes to depress consumer activity is perhaps the only solution, but this takes time and for those with high levels of debt this experience can prove fatal.
For stock markets higher inflation is bad news if it brings higher interest rates. The price of shares is determined partly by dividend yield, and when interest rates rise share prices have to fall to increase dividends.
Now conversely the prospect of higher interest rates will strengthen a currency. Thus the US dollar would go up in value if interest rates went up; this would have the unfortunate effect of making US exports more expensive and so be bad for businesses already struggling with higher debt servicing costs.
I suppose where this leads us is to a rational assessment of the true position of the US business cycle, which is not one of solid recovery but of an imminent correction for past excesses. Inflation is one of the things that is about to trip up this false recovery.
What does this mean for investors? 'Sell, sell, sell, and go away!' That might be a fair answer, and if you are really gloomy go for gold which is a contra-cyclical asset class; is there anything to be cheerful about?
Well, if you do have large debts and can afford the higher interest rates, then inflation will gradually eroded the size of the debt relative to your income; debt is fixed and income is not. This is also especially true for property where rental income will rise with inflation while debt will fall as a proportion of the inflated value of the asset.
Thus well-financed property assets and gold may be the best places to hold your money as inflation heads upwards in 2004, but equities may face an uncertain time. Watch this space!
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.silverseek.com/images/logo.PNG]
http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1080715914.php
Shorts Gone Wild - Gold & Silver
By: Theodore Butler
The latest Commitments of Traders Report (COT) was a shocker for gold, as the tech funds plowed onto the long side and dealers went short in massive numbers. Adjusting for the trading since the Tuesday cutoff, the commercial net short position in COMEX gold is at the highest level ever. This raises the strong possibility of a sell-off, where the funds sell out their long positions and the dealers buy back shorts, as has occurred every time the dealers have previously reached record short position levels. Of course, it is always possible for the dealers to be overrun when they are holding giant short positions, but that has yet to occur in gold.For those who doubt that the dealers can orchestrate and engineer the funds in and out of the markets, as I contend, it might be instructive to review how the dealers manhandled the funds in the sugar market recently. I have rarely witnessed as severe a beating of the tech funds by the dealers in any market as what just took place in sugar. That the regulators sit by and allow speculators and speculating commercials to set and control the price of vital commodities with paper games is outrageous.
Of course, there is no guarantee that the dealers will prevail in gold and succeed in flushing the tech funds from the long side, once again. For instance, there is strong evidence that the dealers lost big, for the first time, in copper over the past few months, as strong physical demand bailed out tech funds longs and the dealers actually covered short copper positions to the upside. In fact, this is the litmus test for determining whether the dealers have been defeated or not in a market, namely, whether they close out positions at a loss after a big net position has been established, or whether they just keep adding to a losing position until they overpower a market eventually.
In my mind, the only way for the dealers to be defeated after they have taken a large net position (long or short), is for the real physical market to trump them, like recently happened in copper. What's so crazy about this is that how I'm describing the rare instance of the dealers actually losing (being overpowered by the real physical market) is, by law, how the markets are supposed to function all the time. The real world of supply and demand should be setting the price continuously, and not be the rare exception. That's why I claim these paper trading games are manipulative.
Since gold is not an industrial commodity, like copper, it is not likely to experience an industrial physical shortage. This makes it easier for the dealers to maneuver the tech funds in gold. This is not to say that the buyers of physical gold can't be more aggressive than the sellers, causing the price to rise, just that gold is unlikely to be in an industrial shortage, like copper, steel, or silver. So, when the dealers put on a record net short position, like now, it would take something other than a physical shortage to cause them to panic and cover those shorts at a loss. That "something" has yet to occur in gold, as the dealers have yet panic and cover at a loss. It appears that the dealers and tech funds have basically broken even for the past 15 months or so in their COMEX gold trading. The price of gold has advanced over that time, so I'm not suggesting that the dealers have been cleaning the tech funds' clock in gold, as they did for many years. What I'm suggesting is that the dealers continue to maneuver the tech funds in gold, and even if they aren't booking big profits, they aren't losing big either. There has been no COT dealer defeat in gold (yet), and the next time will still be the first time.
What about silver? Whereas gold has just experienced a big jump in commercial shorting, silver's COT position has remained near a record net dealer short position for months. While this has not prevented the price of silver from climbing sharply, the dealers haven't covered their shorts, as they have in copper. Therefore, the issue is still open and unresolved. Like in gold, the dealers, as a group, have yet to cover their short positions in silver at a loss. My sense is that the dealers have set the tech funds up on the long side of gold, in their hopes that a resultant sell-off in gold will cause a corresponding sell-off in silver. While it remains an open question as to how the extreme COT positions in gold and silver will be resolved, there are a number of important things we can say specifically about the silver short position.
As you know, I have long maintained that COMEX silver has the largest short position of any commodity in history, when compared to world annual production and total known world inventories. You've never seen anyone contradict that statement, nor will you. Today, I'd like to examine the extreme silver COMEX short position in some new ways. As always, I'll try to rely on the public record and common sense.
Let's look at the public record. Each week, the CFTC releases the COTs for all US-traded commodity futures. The positions of traders, by categories, is listed on both a gross and net basis. Net is, obviously, smaller than gross, and is more "pure", in that it represents the true overall position by category. Looking at the net commercial short futures position for all real commodities traded (leaving out financial futures), COMEX silver still stands out like a sore thumb when compared to all other commodities.
Even on a net basis, the short commercial position in silver, at nearly 500 million ounces (including options), almost equals total world production, while most commodities have a commercial net short position rarely greater than 5% to 10% of their respective world productions. Some commodities (cotton and cocoa) don't even have a current commercial net short position, as the dealers are net long. In fact, over the past 20 years, COMEX silver is the only commodity in which the commercials have always been net short. The commercials have been significantly net long, at some point(s), in every commodity except silver. You should be asking yourself - why are the commercials always net short in silver, and why are they usually net short, like now, in amounts many times larger than any other commodity, when comparing net short positions and respective world productions? What is it about silver, alone among all commodities, that attracts such massive commercial shorting, consistently for 20 years?
There is another clear aberrant pattern that comes into focus when comparing the commercial category of silver and the other major commodities, as posted in the COT, for positions as of 3/23. Major commodity is defined as one having a total futures open interest of at least 75,000 contracts. When you compare the gross long commercial position, to the gross short commercial position of every major commodity in the current COT (futures only) report, you see that the gross short position rarely doubles the size of the gross long position. (A gross short twice the size of a gross long equals a 2.0 ratio.) Here's the actual breakdown (in contracts):
Commodity Gross Commercial Long Gross Commercial Short Ratio
Wheat (CBOT) 63,555 100,288 1.58
Corn 291,610 469,505 1.61
Soybeans 97,222 166,079 1.71
Soybean Oil 71, 324 151,413 2.12
Soybean Meal 89,788 142,870 1.59
Live Cattle (CME) 50,818 62,395 1.23
Cotton 51,358 51,198 1.00
Cocoa (CSCE) 84,053 70,220 0.84
Sugar 114,630 217,011 1.89
Coffee 41,838 82,971 1.98
Heating Oil (NYMEX) 92,092 113,815 1.24
Natural Gas 185,484 210,214 1.13
Crude Oil 387,245 483,735 1.25
Unleaded Gasoline 81,350 30,204 1.60
Copper 27,411 54,600 1.99
Gold 49,762 - 204,617 * 4.11 *
Silver 10,670 - 97,561 * 9.14 *
Certain numbers should jump out at you, namely, the ratios of gold, but particularly of silver. Why are the commercials so lopsided in their short versus long positions in gold, but especially silver? These are aberrations that demand a reasonable explanation. Let's first eliminate what isn't a reasonable explanation - because the price is up. The price of many commodities on this list are up, and there is no lopsided ratio. That's because commercials should have legitimate hedging needs on both sides of the market in a rising price environment, such as users protecting themselves. In most of these commodities, it is clear that there is significant and legitimate commercial long side participation, even though the short side may be larger. In silver, it should be obvious that there is virtually no long side commercial participation. Let's cut to the chase and explore why that is so, even though the last thing we need is still more evidence that silver is manipulated.
There is one reason, and one reason only, why the commercial dealers are overloaded on the short side and barely inhabit the long side in COMEX silver - because there is no competition between the dealers. They are all reading and acting from the same play book. They act in unison. They never break ranks with one another. They operate as one against all comers - the tech funds, the big and small speculators, the real silver value investors and any one who stands to gain from a free silver price. The silver commercials are a disciplined and unified wolf pack, kept in tow by the leaders of the pack, the Silver Managers. This wolf pack operates by the rules of force and the wild, and not by the rule of law. Protected and coddled by the CFTC and the NYMEX/COMEX.
The key feature of the silver dealer short wolf pack is that it is operating against the laws of true supply and demand. Nothing that they are doing is in conformity with legitimate economic purpose, save one - take as much money as possible, the law be damned. And stay alive. Aberrant short figures and ratios aside, there is no sound economic reason for holding the largest short position on record in a commodity in a structural deficit. I'd like to see someone step forward with a plausible and legitimate explanation for a net short position, of anything, greater than what exists in the real world. And this epic short position didn't materialize as a result of the recent increase in price, as it was just about as obscenely large $3 lower. It can't be covered to the upside without destroying the wolf pack. For that reason alone, the manipulation couldn't be more obvious.
You've read, many times, where I highlight how unprecedented the COMEX silver short position is compared to world production and total known inventories. It doesn't matter if I'm talking of total gross or net position, held by all the commercials or just the concentrated largest traders, it's always bigger than known bullion inventories, currently no more than 150 million ounces. But even that vastly understates the real short story. That's because the commercials don't control anywhere near that total 150 million ounces. They'd be lucky if they controlled 10 or 20 million ounces of that total. There's a verified and documented net short commercial position of nearly 500 million ounces and they have less than 2% to 4% in real silver backing. Their short position may be 50 times larger than what they really own. No wonder they stick together. If one breaks rank and covers to the upside, they all will perish.
There has never been, in all of financial history, such a case as we have in silver, where the public has been so favorably aligned against the insiders. The public holds a long position that they can not be collectively shaken out from. The insiders hold a short position that they can't collectively deliver against in a thousand years. All the insider shorts can do is to stall and try to shake as many longs from the tree as possible. The short insiders must resort to spreading false private stories of fading silver demand, while the true stories of delayed delivery, whether on the COMEX or by the Central Fund of Canada are open to all. (In another recent public offering, the Fund has committed to buy another 5 to 6 million ounces of real silver, even though they haven't received the last million or so ounces from their previous stock offering, 4 months ago. They've been told it may take 3 to 6 months for the new silver to be delivered. Does that sound like fading silver demand to you?)
Think I'm overstating the cohesive and predatory pack behavior of the commercial silver shorts? Play a little mind game with me. Imagine, if you would, that the tables were reversed. Instead of the dealers being massively short silver, imagine that they were massively long. I know it is hard to realistically picture anyone else going short to the extent necessary to enable the dealer silver wolf pack to be massively long, but just imagine it did. Knowing what you know about the real silver fundamentals and the deficit and evaporating inventories, etc., and you added that the silver wolf pack was long and not short - what price would you put on silver, when the wolf pack longs put it to the hapless shorts? $100? $500? $1000?
But the commercials have a record net short position, and not a record net long position, so you must behave accordingly. The wolf pack is always on the prowl for unsuspecting and innocent victims. Don't expect help from the regulatory authorities, as they are a big part of the problem. Don't expect the miners to fight back. You must arm and defend yourself. How? Easy. Rely on your common sense. Hold only fully paid-for positions. Don't hold leveraged positions that you will be forced to jettison and lose in a sharp sell off. Prepare and steel yourself for the coming volatility. Let's face it, you or I can't control the volatility. All we can control is our reaction to it. Focus on the long term. If the pack succeeds in engineering one more manipulative sell off, put it to your advantage by being prepared to buy, both financially and emotionally.
Even when the COTs stink, like now, you must hold a full core position because, in the long run, we will go shockingly higher, probably without notice, as the fundamentals play out. The bad news is that any sell off, if it comes, is likely to appear disorderly and designed to frighten those unprepared out of positions. The good news is that any sell off should end dollars higher than the average prices of recent years. Now is the time to harden your resolve about silver and prepare for whatever the increasingly desperate shorts throw your way.
-- Posted 31 March, 2004
[Blockierte Grafik: http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/investr.gif]
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://csl.finanznachrichten.d…boerse-nachrichten-s1.gif]
http://www.finanznachrichten.d…04-03/artikel-3220282.asp
Mittwoch, 31. März 2004
Vista Gold Corp. Announces Year-End Financial Results and Recent Developments
DENVER, March 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Vista Gold Corp. Toronto announced today its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2003, as filed on March 30, 2004 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in the Corporation''s Annual Report on Form 10-K. For the year ended December 31, 2003, Vista reported a consolidated net loss of US $2.7 million or $0.22 per share compared to the 2002 consolidated net loss of US $2.8 million or US $0.41 per share.
weiter....
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://csl.finanznachrichten.d…boerse-nachrichten-s1.gif]
http://www.finanznachrichten.d…04-03/artikel-3222187.asp
Mittwoch, 31. März 2004
Gold- und Ölpreis zieht an
Der Goldpreis ist in der Nacht vom Freitag gestiegen. Auch der Preis für Öl der Sorte Light Crude (leichtes US-Öl), Heating Oil und für die führende Nordseesorte Brent Crude zog an.
Ursache für den Ölpreisanstieg sind schwindende Hoffnungen auf eine Entspannung beim Ölpreis. Gestern hat sich der saudi-arabische Ölminister nochmals gegen eine Erhöhung der Ölförderquoten ausgesprochen. Die derzeit hohen Preise gingen nicht auf Angebot und Nachfrage zurück sondern würden von Spekulanten verursacht. Auch der libysche Ölminister Fathi bin Shatwan will die geplante Kürzung durchsetzen.Heute treffen sich die OPEC-Vertreter in Wien, um die im Februar beschlossene Fördermengendrosselung auf 23,5 Million Barrel ab 01. April abzusegnen. Venezuela tritt öffentlich für eine Kürzung ein, wogegen Nigeria nicht kürzen will. Eine Kürzung würde voraussichtlich dazu führen, dass sich die Benzinpreise, die in den USA ohnehin schon auf Rekordhöhe liegen, weiter verteuern. Dies würde im bevorstehenden Präsidentschaftswahlkampf die Chancen von George W. Bush auf eine Wiederwahl schmälern. Jedoch ist die Quotendisziplin derzeit sehr schlecht. Nur Venezuela und Indonesien, die gar nicht mehr produzieren können, halten die aktuellen Quoten ein. Zudem haben die OPEC-Staaten mit wenigen Ausnahmen bisher keine Maßnahmen eingeleitet, um die angekündigte Drosselung auch tatsächlich umzusetzen.
Zudem kam es in einer US-Raffinerie des BP-Konzerns zu einer Explosion, die ein Großfeuer auslöste. Das Feuer brach am Dienstag um etwa 18.30 Uhr Ortszeit (02.30 Uhr MESZ am Mittwoch) in einer Anlage zur Benzinherstellung aus. Die Raffinerie in Texas-City, etwa 50 Kilometer südlich der Stadt Houston im Bundesstaat Texas, ist mit einer Kapazität von 447.000 Barrel pro Tag die weltweit zwölftgrößte Raffinerieanlage.
Das weitere fundamentale sowie das technische Umfeld bleiben bullisch. Preistreiber bleiben neben dem Benzinproblem der USA, den Unruhen in Venezuela und dem rieseigen Ölbedarf asiatischer Wachstumsländer auch die Nahostkrise. Zudem bleibt die Raffinerieauslastung weiterhin schlecht, da sich viele Raffinieren in der Umstellung auf die Sommerproduktion befinden. Da half es nicht viel, dass Russland im Januar 12,4 Prozent mehr Öl exportierte als im Vorjahr.
In Deutschland steigen die Heizölpreise infolge eines deutlichen Anstiegs des Dollarkurses. Hier macht sich zudem ein Versorgungsmangel bemerkbar. Zwar ist die Nachfrage gering, aber die Produzenten und Importeure haben sich scheinbar in Erwartung sinkender Preise nicht mit Ware eingedeckt. Da die Preise jedoch bisher nicht nachgaben wird die Ware nun knapp.
Längerfristig besteht die Möglichkeit steigender Preise, da der Ölbedarf in den kommenden Jahren rasant wachsen wird. Insbesondere China benötigt für sein beeindruckendes Wirtschaftswachstum viel Öl. Zudem wächst im Reich der Mitte der Autoabsatz beträchtlich und dementsprechend auch der Benzinbedarf.
Beim ihrem Treffen am 10. Februar in Agier beschlossen die Ölminister der elf OPEC-Staaten überraschend eine Drosselung der Fördermenge, da sie im Frühjahr einen saisonbedingten Preisverfall befürchten. Infolge der hohen Ölpreise ging man allgemein davon aus, dass die Quoten nicht verändert werden, sondern dass lediglich auf Einhaltung der bestehenden offiziellen Quoten gedrängt wird. Das hieße immerhin eine reale Reduktion der Ölströme um 1,5 bis 1,8 Mio. Barrel pro Tag. Doch die Tagenden gingen weiter. Auf Drängen Saudi Arabiens wurde eine Quotensenkung von 1 Mio. Barrel pro Tag ab dem 01. April beschlossen.
Jedoch sind die Kartellmitglieder mit Blick auf die eigenen Kassen erfahrungsgemäß träge beim Drosseln der Ölhähne. Ob sich die beschlossene Reduktion von insgesamt 2,5 Mio. Barrel durchsetzen lässt, wird von einigen Analysten bereits angezweifelt. Sie sind der Meinung, dass das Kartell nicht in der Lage sein wird, seine Mitglieder an einer Überproduktion zu hindern. Bisher wurde nicht festgestellt, dass der OPEC-Beschlusses umgesetzt wird.
Der Verdacht wächst, dass die OPEC kein Interesse mehr an ihrer Politik der moderaten Ölpreise hat. Der Ölpreis notiert bereits seit über 80 Tagen oberhalb des OPEC-Preiszielbands von 22 bis 28 Dollar, aber der Fördermengenmechanismus, der eine Erhöhung der Förderquote vorsieht wurde nicht in Gang gesetzt. Die OPEC begründet ihre Politik immer wieder mit einem erwarteten Nachfrageeinbruch im zweiten Quartal. Das Kartell will erst bei seiner nächsten Sitzung am 31. März über die weitere Fördermenge entscheiden.
Preisentlastend wirkte bisher, dass die wichtigsten Nicht-OPEC-Länder Russland, Norwegen und Mexiko eine Reduzierung ihrer Liefermengen ablehnen. Zusammen mit den zunehmenden irakischen Exporten könnte die Kürzung der OPEC etwas kompensiert werden. Kürzt das Kartell die Fördermengen um die Preise stabil zu halten, droht ein Verlust von Marktanteilen an Nicht-OPEC- Mitglieder.
Analysten konzentrieren sich jedoch wieder verstärkt auf die Fundamentaldaten. Die Konjunkturdaten der vergangenen Monate zeigten mehrheitlich ein positives Bild,?( zudem wollen Analysten nun nach vorne schauen und hoffen auf eine wirtschaftliche Wende. Grund zum Optimismus sehen sie in den US-Steuersenkungen und im niedrigen Zinsniveau.
Der Kurs des Euro stieg von 1,2172 Dollar am letzten Handelstag auf nun 1,223 Dollar und liegt damit weiter auf hohem Niveau. Mitte Februar erreichte der Euro ein Rekordhoch von 1,2927 Dollar und liegt auch jetzt noch deutlich über seinem Kurs bei der Einführung der Gemeinschaftswährung am 04. Januar 1999 von 1,1886 Dollar. Ein schwächerer Dollar macht das in US-Dollar angeschriebene Gold und Öl für Anleger aus anderen Währungsräumen billiger und damit attraktiver. Allerdings führt er auch dazu, dass die OPEC nichts gegen die hohen Preise unternimmt, da die Einnahmen des Kartells an Wert verlieren.
Feinunze Gold: 422,80 Dollar (+4,60 Dolllar)
Feinunze Silber: 7,775 Dollar (+0,150 Dollar)
Light Crude: 36,25 Dollar (+0,80 Dollar)
Brent Crude: 32,45 Dollar (+0,85 Dollar)
Heating Oil: 0,9024 Dollar (+0,0253 Dollar)
Die unterschiedlichen Preise werden durch die Qualität des Öls gerechtfertigt. Je höherwertiger das Öl ist, um so kostengünstiger ist seine Weiterverarbeitung.
© finanzen.net
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://im.morningstar.com/im/NavBar/MstarLogo2.gif]
http://news.morningstar.com/ne…WJONESDJONLINE000449.html
IAMGOLD Corp., Wheaton River Minerals Agree to Merge
03-31-04 06:10 AM EST
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Canadian mining companies Iamgold Corp. (IAG) and Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. (WHT) plan to merge in a move that would create one of the world's top ten gold producers.The companies said in a press release that each Wheaton River share would be exchanged for 0.55 of an Iamgold share, representing a 22% premium over the five-day average closing price of Wheaton River as of Tuesday. Wheaton River's American Stock Exchange-listed stock closed at $3.14 Tuesday.
Wheaton River shareholders would own 68% of the combined company while Iamgold holders would own 32%.
The combined company will have proven and probable reserves of 9 million ounces plus additional measured and indicated resources of 4.4 million ounces and inferred resources of 10.5 million ounces. It would also have "strong operating cash flow and excellent financial flexibility" with $300 million in cash and gold bullion.
Joseph Conway will be president and chief executive of the new company while Ian Telfer will serve as executive co-chairman. William Pugliese will be co- chairman of the board, which will include the eight current Iamgold directors and the eight current Wheaton directors.
The new company's stock will continue to trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the American Stock Exchange. The company will also be renamed.
Both companies' boards have already approved the deal. Iamgold's financial advisers were National Bank Financial Inc. and RBC Capital Markets. Wheaton River's financial advisers were GMP Securities Ltd. and Endeavour Financial Corp.
Shareholders from both companies will vote on the deal in June.
A conference call is scheduled for 11 a.m. EST later Wednesday.
-Freddy Sebastian; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5400
Dow Jones Newswires
03-31-04 0610ET
Copyright (C) 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -
Dein hier geposteter Beitrag von Focus Money trifft voll ins Schwarze!
Zitat"Eine Klage in den USA gegen Notenbankchef Alan Greenspan wegen der Manipulation des Goldpreises wurde jedoch zurückgewiesen."
Dazu sollten die Leser hier noch die mehr als fragwürdige Begründung kennen, mit der die Richter diese Klage von GATA's Reg Howe gegen das Gold Kartell, inklusive FED unter A. Greenspan abgewiesen haben.
Die Richter sprachen GATAS Reg Howe ganz einfach die Klage Berechtigung ab, mit der unglaublichen Begründung, dass Reg Howe nicht direkt Geschädigter sei!
Howe Anklageschrift und ("Skandal") Urteil nachzulesen unter:
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
The DOW (10,381, up 52) and DOG (2000, up
just keep on rolling on. It’s insanity. The dollar closed at 88.78, down .20 and the euro gained .34 to 121.52.March 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is concerned oil prices may decline in the weeks ahead and is cutting output as promised for next month to prevent a drop, said the Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi.
Zitat``More oil now will make a glut in the market and force prices to collapse, something we don't want,'' al-Naimi told reporters in Vienna today. ``Throwing more oil on the market would be destructive for everybody.''
–END-
GATA’s Mike Bolser:
Hi Bill:
The Federal Reserve today added $3.5 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements, an action that caused the repo pool to fall a bit to $31.08 Billion.
With the strong finish yesterday the DOW has made a nice recovery back into the Fed's "appropriate" zone of action, near the linear trend line headed to a new high just in time for the election season.
A thoughtful reader has caused me to re mark the extended trend line as he undertook to use the 2,5 and 8 week moving averages as a proxy for the DOW's 30-day ma. When he did this he came up with a DOW 11,750 breach on October 29th 2004...a bit after my standing forecast but right on the election week.
I think there's room for both these forecasts...I am biased towards Labor Day 2004 as I think the beneficial political digestion of a new DOW high would be ongoing throughout the run-up to the election and this would be a more desirable outcome for the incumbents, so I'm leaning that way for now.
There's money to be made accepting and playing the Fed's interventional maneuvers, especially with the DOW. Calls can be bought, although I do not trade these entities as I wish to stay as free as possible in my interventional analysis. One must always remain cognizant that the rules are ultimately governed by the Fed and they can be changed at any moment so stay flexible and very aware at all times.
The silver default in progress
If one cannot obtain delivery of a commodities contract in a reasonable time is that not a default? Do the same default definitions hold for sovereign debt defaults as for COMEX silver? Can Brazil and Argentina simply say they will deliver to the IMF its loan interest perhaps a few months AFTER the payment date IF things still look good to them?
This is where the LBMA sits today as they still have failed to report the February precious metals volume at this hour (11AM).
http://www.lbma.org.uk/clearing_table.htmIf there has been a huge up spike in silver volume it would constitute the unequivocal marker of a run on the metal and that would undoubtedly spill over to threaten the gold inventories.
What will the Fed's response be? Today no one knows, but if one were prudent he or she would get the metal(s) as soon as possible.
My website has been updated at:
http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis
MikeBut, there is no inflation:
Steelmakers get 5% to 10% price increases from consumer electronics and electrical machinery firms, reports the Nikkei
The paper reports the Japanese steelmakers appear to have won price increases of 5-10% from most major consumer electronics and electrical machinery manufacturers. The steel companies have already gotten a similar price increase from automakers and shipbuilders. –END-"ET Hearing that USDA Prices Received Index hits highest level ever -- milk, cattle, beans and eggs"
Inflation, deflation, inflation, deflation????…
Mark J. Lundeen
mlundeen2@rr.mn.com
30 March 2004A Question of Inflation, Deflation or Newton’s Third Law of Motion?
I keep seeing speculation of what is to come our way after the bubble pops; whether the result will be inflation or deflation, I think it will be both.What I personally think is this. The Criminally Insane Mad Social Scientist (CIMSS) who control our lives from Washington DC have for decades wanted to keep the voters happy so that they, the CIMSS, could satisfy their lust for power over those who "need their help"; people like you and me. To keep us "consumers" happy the CIMSS have created "policies" to artificially deflate the consumer’s daily expenses while artificially inflated the consumer’s assets. This produced an economy where the American consumers felt wealthy and happy with cheap food and energy while creating ever rising "asset" prices in the financial and real estate sectors so that people’s 401K and IRA monthly statements gave a false promise of prosperity for the aging baby boomers. Any resolution to the above scenario would logically demand the opposite effects intended by the CIMSS with their financial engineering via their cheap money and easy credit. Just as with Newton’s third law of motion, I see a future where what was inflated will deflate; what was deflated will inflate.
As I see it, this means that the if the CIMSS engineered our economy to maximize the effective purchasing power of the "consumer’s" pay checks; the unfortunate but necessary resolution of what I have explained above will be to crush what ever purchasing power those "consumer" paychecks will have after the coming bust. I believe what we will see unfold before us will be peoples asset's deflating to near nothing while peoples daily expenses inflate until the average specimen (place your name here) in the CIMSS global experiment bleeds white.
With no hyperbole intended on my part, I hope only in the years to come that when I flick the switch the lights they come on, when I turn on the facet water flows, and I can keep my house's temperature somewhere above freezing. I believe that the 80 pounds of extra body fat I took on after I retired from the navy will one day soon become the envy of the CIMSS test tube where I currently reside in this grand experiment and provide for me substance until agriculture and food distribution can once again be reestablished.
The history of central banking and the bad money central bankers produce is one of shameful abuse and ultimately horrific consequence to those who live in an economy controlled by these awful people. In the past people were more self reliant as most people, even during our Great Depression, were farmers; this is not so today, at least not in North America. Today we are all so profoundly dependent upon so many people the world over whose names we do not even know but would be cold and hungry if strangers would stop doing what ever it is that they do for themselves, and us. The only link between us all is economic and the blood that flows between them and us is called money. When that money goes bad and pollutes the economy these necessary links between all of us are broken and the extent that we Earthlings need one another will become painfully apparent.
Mark J. LundeenFrom The King Report:
Our friend Jimmy notes that last week China raised bank reserve requirements, the refinancing rate by 63bps and rediscount rate by 27bps to 3.24%. These are serious measures to slow down China’s economy, wanton bank lending and inflation, yet Wall Street and financial media are silent or ignorant. China last week stated its purpose is to reduce China GDP to 7%. Its stated rate of growth, 9% is understated. Morgan analyst Andy Xie believes China GDP has been 15% to 17%. Andy and Morgan analysts Denise Yam and Sharon Lam have penned a provocative piece, "China: The Second Tightening Move". China believes if they do not slow down their economy, resource prices will continue to soar and it will shutdown the world economy…Look at CHN – the stock peaked on the first day of 2004 and fell ~1/3 in January. Perhaps this is why BLS is withholding PPI data until May. http://www.morganstanley.com/G…igests/latest-digest.html
China understands the consequences of the global economy far better than US fed, administration or Congressional officials. What our Fed should be doing (thwarting resource inflation that is jeopardizing the global economy) will be done by the BoC and possibly the BoJ. This is indicative of the shift in global economic power and the criminal incompetence of US officials that are hasting the US’s decline.
The implications of a China slowdown to arrest global commodity inflation are not limited to the numerous wise guys and other paper holders of commodities. Global liquidation of other favored holdings could result. There could also be seemingly contradictory moves – copper and bonds could fall smartly, just as they both rallied the past 4 months. Without the need to recycle intervention proceeds, bonds could be in big trouble. Few Americans understand that the US has become Blanche Dubois (A Streetcar Named Desire) – they depend on the kindness of strangers, namely the BoJ and BoC.
Bonds may be doing the reverse of 1982 - 1984. Bonds rallied sharply in 1982 and peaked in 1983 after Volcker removed the punch bowl. Bonds tanked and rates rose sharply into 1984. Over 80% of the rally was lost. However, Volcker bailed out Continental Bank and the biggest bond bull since the Civil War progressed. Globally, bonds topped in June 2003 and bottomed in November. JGB’s decline commenced on the last day of Feb.; last week global bonds followed. Perhaps the corrective rally is over.
Y.V. Reddy, the head of India’s central bank, has kept the rupee from appreciating, ala China. Analysts now believe Reddy will allow the rupee to rise to thwart inflationary pressures, estimated to be 5%.
-END-
Gold demand news:
Vietnam to consume 62 tonnes of gold likely: WGC
The domestic gold market posts an average growth rate of 5.1%/year, according to Mr. Huynh Trung Khanh, Chief Vietnam Representative of the World Gold Council (WGC). It is expected that Vietnam will consume the combined amount of 62 tonnes of gold this year….
-END-
Speaking of The World Gold Council, there were a number of people jumping up and down about their proposed ETF trading entity, which was supposed to open on the New York Stock Exchange in what seems like eons ago. The World Gold Council can’t seem to do, or get, anything right.
What they got the most wrong is refusing to embrace GATA to take on the enemies of gold. Word to me is the Treasury and Fed are the ones behind the scenes preventing the World Gold Council’s product from coming to fruition. Serves the WGC right for being so lame about doing the right thing. What goes around, comes around.
Derek Van Artsdalen from San Antonio:
Hi Bill,
As a follow-on to Alex W's Cafe article today, here's a chart showing the price of gold in S. African Rand over the past three years.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/DVA033004.jpg]
We can see that the price peaked back in December '01 at just over 3750 Rand per ounce. After trading sideways for about nine months, the price-per-ounce in Rand began a steep downward slope due to the rise of the S. African currency. Notice, though, that despite the Rand's continuing strength, the cost of gold in terms of Rand broke upward out of its downtrend this past December. As often happens after such a breakout, the price broke upward, came back down to retest the trendline and then began pulling away again (see green arrows). This 3-phase phenomenon is fairly common.
As I've pointed out in previous "Midas" contributions, if the new upward trend continues, it will make the S. African mining companies, such as DROOY, GFI, AFKDY and others hugely profitable. This is just one more example of how gold is now breaking out in terms of currencies beyond the U.S. dollar. As the rest of the world begins buying gold along with those seeking protection from the falling greenback, the vastly increased buying pressure should send gold flying across the board. Fiat "money" around the globe is fast losing its appeal—along with its value! What a shame that Joe Sixpack is too busy watching Unreality TV to notice...
Derek
-END-
With silver on a tear, I have received a number of requests about what silver stocks to buy. That is not my role, nor am I the one to go to for advice. However, as I have done for years, I will gladly mention to you what I am doing for my own account. Recently I have added significantly to my number two share holding, SAMEX. While not a silver producer yet, they are smack dab in the middle of silver elephant country.
Life has a funny way of pleasantly surprising you sometimes. The other day while talking to my friend, SAMEX CEO Jeff Dahl, about silver’s bull market and what it may mean to the company, he refreshed me on what many investors/shareholders (including myself) may have forgotten:
*The company’s Eskapa prospect, where they’re exploring for bonanza grade gold/silver ore-bodies, has returned some very, very high silver assays within the prospective mineralized zones. Geologically the property demonstrates similarities to other silver rich mines in the belt. You can read a great summary of the property at their web site. (The "Rosetta Stone")
-*Also of note, Apex Silver Mines recently raised 150 million dollars and apparently plans to spend a good part of that for development of their large silver play, San Cristobal, which lies just 40 kms (25 miles) northeast from Eskapa.
*Another SAMEX prospect, Wara Wara, that I didn’t even know that the company held, has great silver potential. Again, check out the web site map at the Coreshack. The property lies 80 kms east of the world’s largest silver ore-body EVER, "Cerro Rico", the one that helped build the 16th century Spanish empire.
*Finally, the SAMEX’s Los Zorros district is less than 15 kms south of the largest silver deposit (over 100 million ozs, now mined out) ever found in Chile. Talk about location, location, location.
Although SAMEX’s focus is not exclusively silver but more, "go big or go home" for gold, silver and copper, when it comes to exploration, you’re more likely to find elephants close to where elephants have been found before!
SAMEX closed at 85.5 cents US, up 3.5 cents on the day. It traded as high as $1.30 earlier this year when gold was only $4 higher than it is now!
Chuck checks in and focuses on the gold shares:
You can discount yesterday through tomorrow (end of the quarter) and the first five days of April (reinvestment time). All in all, it inevitably favors the stock market at this phase. It has been rare that we have seen any real weakness during this time in many years.
Contrarily, since most advisors still remain cautious towards the gold shares, normally these days are muted for gold. This time appears to be an exception. Some advisors have mentioned a possible head and shoulders on the gold shares. I do not see that. Rather I think that we have absorbed many attempts, some on near panic. to sell off the shares. Remember how hard Newmont was hit from 50 to 40 and we are back at 47 with few publicly advising purchase. That is the way it should be. Furthermore, the small exploratory companies barely trade and even on a good day for gold such as today, many are even off slightly. There is no expectation of a break out in gold and yet, we are only $10 off the high even while some are expecting a return to under $400.
Given the growing bold terrorist attacks in almost every part of the world, the obvious attempts by the monetary authorities to keep the ship from sinking and the relative strength of gold against the Euro, the evidence is very supportive of a strong move up, not down. Unfortunately, many who still believe that gold is in a great secular bull market, are out of the market, believing that they will know the exact moment to get back in. History reveals that they will miss out because markets do what they have to do to prevent most of the public from benefiting.
At this time, the shares appear to be following the metals lead although at the bottom, they led the metal. It keeps us from figuring it all out. Many are going to have to buy the shares in a panic.
Zitat"Look, he is coming with the clouds, and every eye will see him, even those who pierced him; and all the peoples of the earth will mourn because of him. So shall it be! Amen" Revelation 1:7
Chuck ikiecohen@msn.comAfter Chuck sent me his thoughts, the gold shares were trampled. The XAU closed at 104.57, up 1.16, while the HUI fell from 237.45 to finish at 234.57, up only 2.78.
Chuck again:
One day, and probably sooner than later, the shorts and short-term traders will have it handed to them. You explain to me why the shares would sell off on this close. Why not the Dow? There are obviously end of quarter cross currents at this time. The important listed stocks are creeping up and they will lead the gold market.
I think that what I find interesting is that one day the metal acts well and the shares lag, and everyone becomes cautious on the shares, and then the metal like yesterday and two Fridays ago sells off, and the shares turn strong. Throw in the relative strength of the dollar, and everyone's gold doctrine is turned upside down. One other observation is the relative lack of volatility in the metal. When there has been a drop, it's been quick and then quickly it recovers. Haven't seen that much. It definitely appears that the buyers are all around. We'll get them.If the Dow had done what the XAU and HUI just did in the last 15 minutes, it would have dropped over 100 points. It is just amazing how nervous and short sighted the gold people remain. Taking their profits. Someone must have put out a sell at 3:30." Chuck
That late "sell" would have followed Prudential’s gold share sell in the AM. Then again, maybe it was an increasingly desperate Gold Cartel selling the shares to prepare for one of their pattened onslaughts tomorrow?
The HUI is in the process of completing its massive rounded bottom pattern.
HUI:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8
Let the Wall Streeters, who know almost absolutely nothing about what really is going on in gold and silver, sell out in the days and weeks ahead before the historic gold/silver share move swings into high gear. Been this way most of the way up. Why should it be much different now?
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
The John Brimelow Report
Are Indians there?
Tuesday, March 30, 2004
Indian Banks were closed today for a Hindu holiday. This is unfortunate for the nerves of gold’s friends. The combination of a sharply higher rupee, and a weaker world gold price might well have put the Indian market into demonstrable import mode this morning – it was close yesterday afternoon with world gold at $420.50. Proof that the key underpinning buyer is ready to participate at these levels would be an important new analytical ingredient.
TOCOM, once again, was not interested. The prospects for a firmer yen, and the turbulence in the TOCOM platinum futures market (down almost the limit) quite overshadowed gold. Volume did rise 15%, but only to the equivalent of 17,592 Comex lots; open interest fell another 1,802 Comex equivalent. World gold went out $2.25 above NY. The active contract closed up 2 yen.
In NY yesterday, the gold price was capped all day, well past the option expiry, and then attacked savagely towards to close. Estimated volume jumped 30,000 contracts (38%) in the last half hour, including only 2,861 of the day’s 15,497 switches.
ScotiaMocatta notes:
Zitat"late in the day… New York dealers sold the market aggressively. Gold slipped below 419.00 where resting stop loss orders were triggered, forcing the price to the session low of 416.25/416.75. Physical demand then came into the market providing support, however, the price could only rally to 416.70/417.20 by the close."
Particularly bearing in mind the recovery this morning, the failure to knock the gold price down more with an effort of this size must be disappointing to the Bears. If indeed India is active below $420, and some of yesterday’s selling was shorting, which seems likely) the Bears may be vulnerable.
JB
John sent us a note later on the open interest increase:
(Considerable shorting obviously occurred)
Only 15,497 switches
The effort to break gold down yesterday was quite a bit larger than appeared.
Therefore its defeat is that much more important.
Especially considering the stronger rupee, which is insulating the Indian importer, an attempt on the 2004 high must be deemed plausible.JB
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
March 30 - Gold $421.40 up $4 - Silver $7.75 up 15 cents
Gold Bulls: In Your Face Goldman Sachs / Silver Makes New 15-Year High Close
ZitatThe most urgent necessity in human life is to be able to face life victoriously. For many are living mentally, physically, morally and spiritually defeated... F.A. Wickett
GO GATA!!!
Both gold and silver came in better than their pre-opening Comex calls. This was almost unheard of in years past. Usually both would open lower than expected and always sold off right away. Lately, we have begun to see surprise, even higher openings than what was called for. This is a good sign. Buyers are willing to be aggressive to get on board, or add to positions, and they don’t want to pussyfoot around.
After the sparkling openings, gold and silver ran up to make their highs for the day. As is almost always the case with gold, it almost reached its $6 rule limits early on and then the gain was halted dead in its tracks by the bullion dealers. Morgan Stanley was the halter, followed later on by AIG and Republic Bank. Goldman Sachs, ironically enough, was an early buyer, most likely for a client.
The gold open interest rose 3099 contracts on the break yesterday to 294,074. We are now approaching its recent/multi-year highs. Clearly, as brought to your attention these past weeks, some very powerful buying forces have entered the fray to take on The Gold Cartel. This big money (including the Chinese and Saudis) knows what the gold game has been all about and still is not afraid to challenge the United States and the rest of the cabal. A number of these entities want physical gold, not dollars. This sort of buying is creating a gradual structural change in the gold market like we have already seen in silver. These buyers do not care what the dollar does, etc. They see the big picture and will buy regardless of the action of the dollar. They see that a powerful United States is AFRAID to even publish our real inflation numbers. They see our National Security Advisor, Condoleezza Rice, is afraid to testify under oath before Congress. They see our deficits growing with no end in sight. They know the Iraq quagmire is just that and going to stay that way, or get worse, in the months and years to come. They realize the United States has grown to become nothing more than a spin machine, hiding one financial/economic/political horror after another. This can only lead to tremendous financial unrest in the months and years to come.
On top of that many of them must know what GATA knows, which is half the central bank gold is no longer there. The central banks have only 16,000 tonnes of gold left, versus the usually reported 32,000 tonnes of reserves with around 5,000 tonnes of those reserves generally acknowledged to be lent out. The missing gold (11,000 tonnes) is what has been used by western central bankers and the bullion banks in the cabal to artificially suppress the price and deceive the world.
As there is a continuing 1500+ tonne annual supply/demand deficit, it is only a matter of time before The Gold Cartel hits the wall like they have in silver, and the price of gold SOARS. Therefore, BIG MONEY wants in NOW!
For Goldman Sachs to unload so much gold two days in a row and have gold storm right back at them is most unusual. The gold bulls are saying, "in your face Goldman Sachs, we don’t care what you sell, we will take it, we are going after you, or whomever you are selling for."
April Gold:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/44
The silver volume today was very light. The market just drifted higher on lack of selling. THIS IS VERY CONSTRUCTIVE as it tells us as there just isn’t much silver around to sell. Silver has become a physical market in which the silver price managers are not only going to play less and less a pivotal role. Eventually, they are going to get slaughtered. Couldn’t happen to a nicer group of guys.
Silver closed in new 15-year high ground with little fanfare.
The complacency among the major silver shorts and locals on Comex is astounding. There is almost no fear of silver taking off in some sort of panic fashion. The major shorts and other Comex players say there is no problem finding silver, one which could cause financial stress in the weeks and months to come. This is in direct contrast to what I have been hearing from overseas for weeks/months. My guess is silver has been so dead for so many years, these significant shorts cannot conceive of any kind of dramatic squeeze occurring.
It is also my opinion they have been lulled to sleep. There has been just enough silver around to meet the latest requirements of the buyers who want the physical. However, from here on it is my belief the "S" is going to hit the fan. The ongoing demand for physical silver is not going to abate. The proverbial "Tipping Point" is going to kick in. One day in the weeks to come a short is not going to be able to secure the silver he needs to satisfy the buyer. When that happens, off silver soars. When silver takes out $8, the volatility is going to be a sight to behold.
One more thing. The volume on Comex is drying up because the physical sellers aren’t going to the Comex like they used to. My thinking is it is because some of the new buyers are contracting ahead directly with the producers for silver. With buyers and price assured, there is less reason to hedge. Perhaps, many of the silver shorts haven’t woken up to what is happening yet? They could be in for a big shock!
May silver:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/54
The silver open interest fell 2159 contracts to 118,426. To date the silver open interest pattern is a classically bullish one. On up days, it expands and on down days, it contracts.
Received my delivery on the March contract on the last day possible. I will keep the 5,000 ounces in a Comex warehouse and use 70% of the value of the contract for trading margin purposes.
Silver is on its way to $10 per ounce for starters. The superlative gold action over the past couple of weeks suggests it won’t be long before gold takes out its 15-year highs too above $430.
-
Ja der Malik
Schätze seine Meinung und seine Analysen zum Wirtschaftsgeschehen sehr. Er hat sehr, sehr vieles im Vornherein richtig kommen sehen, und seine Meinung gegen viel Anfeindungen der etablierten Wirtschaftswelt dargelegt und vertreten.
Hingegen bei seiner Einschätzung zum Goldgeschehn liegt er seit ca. 330.- Dollar pro Unze Gold, nachweislich falsch.
Dass er auch heute noch zu glauben scheint Gold sei zu teuer, entäuscht umso mehr.
Gruss
Thaiguru
-
@Wolf2001
Verstehe Deinen Zorn nur zu gut
Möchte mich trotzdem dem Rat von Hallo anschliessen, nach vorne zu blicken, und das erlebte "Negative" als eine Art von Lebenserfahrung abzulegen, auch wenn es Dir nach Deiner Erfahrung bei W:O sicher nicht leicht fallen kann. Die meisten Leser hier und dort wissen jedoch schon um die Zustände bei W:O. Darum wird schlussendlich ein Board wie dieses hier nur profitieren können. Du bist ja jetzt auch hier, und nicht mehr bei W:O. Viele interssierte Leser werden Dich und Deine Meinung nun hier in diesem Board suchen, und Dich hoffentlich hier auch finden, und Deine Ansichten und Erfahrungen zum Gold, und Silber Geschehen hier erfahren können
Wir Gold und Silber Bugs haben alle allen Grund uns zu freuen.
Das Cabal hingegen hat riesige Probleme.
Lass uns zusammen den Gold, und Silber Preis Manipulateuren noch einige weitere Steine in den Weg legen!
Gruss und Danke
ThaiGuru
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/fi/main4.gif]
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/040330/almi.ob10ksb.html
Form 10KSB for ATLAS MINING CO
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
30-Mar-2004
Annual Report
ITEM 6. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OR PLAN OF OPERATIONS
Our discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based upon our financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States. The preparation of these financial statements requires us to make estimates and judgments that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses. On an on-going basis, we evaluate our estimates based on historical experience and various other assumptions that are believed to be reasonable under the circumstances, the results of which form the basis for making judgments about the carrying values of assets and liabilities that are not readily apparent from other sources. Actual results may differ from these estimates under different assumptions or conditions.We are a natural resources company engaged in the acquisition and exploration of our resource properties in the states of Idaho and Utah. We also provide contract mining services and specialized civil construction services for mine operators, exploration companies and the construction and natural resource industries through our trade name "Atlas Fausett Contracting."
Currently, our primary source of revenue is generated by our Atlas Fausett Contracting operations. However, we also have exploration targets and timber.
CONTRACT MINING
Our contract mining normally generates 80% of our revenues. This may decrease as we are able to increase operations on our owned properties, and we will adjust our resources accordingly. At this time, we anticipate that our contracting will generate no less than approximately 50% of our revenues.
PROPERTY EXPLORATION
We are currently considered an exploration company. Our efforts in exploration are dependent upon the available funds we can raise to pursue our exploration efforts. During 2003 we had exploration expenses amounting to $51,140. We have no assurances that our exploration will result in proving any commercially viable deposits. We realize that additional steps will need to be taken to move from an exploration stage to a development or productions stage.
The majority of our exploration has been at the Dragon Mine in Juab County, Utah. We have furnished samples of the halloysite clay extracted from this property to potential buyers and distributors. The preliminary results of these samples have been favorable, although we have not yet received any firm commitments; we have received non binding letters of intent from potential buyers. It is our intent to move into the development and productions stage of this property.
TIMBER
We will continue to harvest timber on our property. Timber harvesting will be dependent upon lumber prices and weather.
FISCAL YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2003 COMPARED TO FISCAL YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2002.
Our operations for the period ended December 31, 2003, and the period ended December 31, 2002 consisted mostly of our contracting work, logging income and some exploration activities.
REVENUES
Our total revenues for the period ending December 31, 2003 were $304,851, compared to $403,586 for the period ending December 31, 2002, resulting in a 24% decrease from the same period the previous fiscal year. The reason for this is due to fewer revenues received in 2003 from logging activities. Our contract mining revenue for the period ending December 31, 2003 was $298,707 compared to $284,196 for the period ended December 31, 2002, or an increase of 5%. Our timber revenue for the period ending December 31, 2003 was $3,955, compared to $116,048 for the same period ended December 31, 2002, which is a 97% decrease from 2002 to 2003. We logged less in 2003 because the lumber mills were paying less for logs during part of the year, and the high fire danger limited our activities in the forest.
GROSS PROFIT
Our Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2003 was $(30,253) compared to $103,356 for the year ended December 31, 2002. This is a 129% decrease from the previous year. The main reason for this was the lack of timber revenues ($112,093 less) in 2003, compared to 2002, and some higher direct expenses in 2003 compared to 2002.
GENERAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENDITURES
Our general and administrative expenditures for the period ending December 31, 2003 were $1,255,182, which is A 63% increase from the same period the previous fiscal year. The reason for this is attributable to additional costs in 2003 not incurred in 2002 of $466,737 in professional and fees, and $156,681 in advertising expenses. In 2003 we finalized our payments to the SEC attorneys for the completed registration statements.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
We had no capital expenditures for the period ending December 31, 2003 and December 31, 2002.
INTEREST PAYMENTS
Our interest payments for the period ending December 31, 2003 were $91,337, which is a 55% decrease from the same period the previous fiscal year. The reason for this is due to regulatory closure and subsequent bankruptcy of American Mortgage, our major creditor, resulting in our suspension of payments pending settlement of the debts.
EXPLORATION EXPENDITURES
Our exploration expenses for the period ending December 31, 2003 was $51,140 compared to $48,280 for the previous fiscal year, which is a 6% increase from the same period the previous fiscal year. These expenses were incurred at the Dragon Mine, in Juab County, Utah, where we completed a small diamond drilling program in 2003.
NET PROFIT (LOSS)
Our net losses for the period ending December 31, 2003, ($1,382,038), is a 94% increase over the same period the previous fiscal year. The reason for this is attributed to less revenue in 2003 than in 2002 ($98,735 less), and additional general and administrative expenses in 2003 ($483,349 more).
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
To date our activities have been financed primarily through the sale of equity securities, borrowings, and revenues from Atlas Fausett Contracting and logging operations. We intend to continue pursuing contracting work and to log our timber properties to help pay for our operations. In 2003 and 2002 the contracting work accounted for about 98% and 70% of the total revenues respectively. We have also borrowed from various sources to finance our activities. Our current debt structure is explained below.
We have a note payable to William Jacobson, an officer and director, which is payable on demand and bearing no interest. The proceeds of this obligation were used for general working capital. The current amount due as of December 31, 2003 is $70,829. We have an unsecured line of credit with Textron Financial at an interest rate of prime plus 6%. The balance of the line of credit at December 31, 2003 and 2002 was $23,094 and $28,024, respectively. The funds were used for general working capital. Accounts payable due as of December 31, 2003 were $214,855 and are the result of daily operations and taxes owed.
We have a note payable to Moss Adams, LLP, an accounting firm, for $53,250 due in monthly payments of $1,000 with a balloon payment due at maturity. The note matured on August 16, 2002. We have negotiated the terms of repayment, and can pay this debt for approximately 50% of the value. The note was for accounting services provided to us in 1999 and 2000. As of December 31, 2003 our current balance, including interest is $70,734. We have notes in the amount $552,300 payable to American National Mortgage due in monthly installments for interest and fees of $18,743.79, maturing on May 31, 2003, and secured by property in northern Idaho. American Mortgage has filed bankruptcy, and we are negotiating a settlement on this debt. We also have a note payable to CLS Mortgage Company, due in monthly installments of $1,614, including interest at 16%. The note has a current balance of $119,236, and is due in August 2005, secured by the proceeds of our logging activities and collateralized by land and a building on our property in northern Idaho.
Our principal sources of cash flow are from our timber properties, which averaged $330 per month in fiscal year 2003 and $9,600 per month in 2002, and our contract mining, which averaged $24,892 per month in fiscal year 2003 and $23,680 in 2002. In addition, we also rely on our credit facilities and any public or private equity issuances we may conduct in the future.
Cash flow from financing activities for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2003 was $593,498 compared to $593,992 for the same period in 2002, a difference of $494.
The Company realized a use of funds of ($45,431) from investing activities for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2003, compared to ($31,307) for the same period in 2002, a difference of $14,124. The main difference attributed to the sale of investments during 2003 of $10,503 compared to $1.538 for the same period ended December 31, 2002.
Cash flow from operating activities for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2003, was ($546,589) compared to ($557,439) for the same period in 2002, a difference of $10,850. The Company had greater operating losses in 2003 because of the lack of revenues and accumulated more costs in the company's efforts to complete SEC filings.
As of April 1, 2003, we rent office space at 630 E. Mullan Avenue in Osburn, Idaho for $300 per month, on a month-to-month basis from the Mcgillvray Environmental.
If we do not reduce any of this debt from proceeds of our offering, if we do not renegotiate any of this debt or if repayment is demanded, we would be obligated to pay an average of $80,256 per month or $963,080 for the next fiscal year.
In anticipation of the cash needs for the upcoming year, we have completed an SB-2 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This filing was first approved in July 2002, revised and approved again in February 2003. Under the revised application, the company was able to sell up to 10,000,000 shares of common stock at a price of $0.10 per share. These shares have been sold and the company carries a subscription receivable as of December 31, 2003 for uncollected proceeds of $524,700.
During 2003 the company entered into an agreement with a group to acquire $2 million in financing through a restricted common stock sale and a convertible note. The group has funded $250,000, however, it did not complete its commitment. The company issued 2.5 million shares of restricted stock on March 31, 2003.
We will need to obtain additional funding to pursue our business strategy during the next fiscal year. At the present time, we anticipate seeking additional funding through additional private placements, joint venture agreements, production financing, and/or pre-sale loans, although we have no plans to conduct any of these activities at this time. Our inability to raise additional capital to fund operations through the remainder of this year and through the next fiscal year could have a detrimental effect on our ability to pursue our business plan, and possibly our ability to continue as a going concern.
In anticipation of the above funding sources, we have attempted to satisfy our debts through a negotiated settlement, and/or ask for extended terms until we can become more profitable. We cannot assure you that any of these events will occur or, if they do occur, when they will occur.
weiter....
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/images/logo_article.gif]
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/03/31/048.html
Wednesday, Mar. 31, 2004. Page 7
Britain's Highland Is Hunting for More Far East Gold Mines
Reuters Highland Gold Mining wants to buy gold assets in the Far East and possibly Kazakhstan as part of its expansion in one of the world's biggest undeveloped gold fields, its head said on Tuesday.
Peter Daresbury, executive chairman of London-listed Highland, said he hoped to announce more details later this year.
Zitat"We are looking at the whole of Russia and the former [Soviet] countries," he said. "We have the best contacts in the Far East in Russia. That's probably where we'll be prioritizing."
Highland, whose share price has risen by a third in the past year, has spearheaded a fresh wave of Western investment in Russian gold after the political and economic chaos of the post-Soviet years squeezed out many foreign firms.Daresbury said Highland was considering opportunities in gold-rich Central Asian states, including Kazakhstan. "We've certainly highlighted opportunities in that and are making progress towards that." He would not elaborate.
Highland's biggest project in Russia, Mnogovershinnoye, is expected to produce about six tons of gold this year. Highland has said start of production at the Darasun mine would boost total gold output to 7.2 tons this year.
Industry sources in Kazakhstan have said the management of the huge Vasilkovskoye mine in the north of the Central Asian state was in talks with an undisclosed British company on a possible sale of certain assets.
Highland's Novoshirokinskoye mine is expected to open in 2005. The giant Maiskoye deposit is due to launch production in 2006 and contribute another 5.6 tons to total output.
Highland's shareholders include Canada's Barrick Gold Corp and Britain's Fleming Family Fund & Partners. Mnogovershinnoye previously belonged to billionaire Roman Abramovich. The head of Highland's Russian operations, Ivan Koulakov, is a former member of the board of directors of Sibneft, an oil company backed by Abramovich.
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://ad22.vhb.de/hbi/images/logo.gif]
Deutsche Konjunktur hängt durch
30. März 2004, 16:30
Bisher fehlte es nur an Schwung, aber jetzt steht sogar die Aufwärtsbewegung in Frage. Der Handelsblatt-Frühindikator ist im April gesunken. Er signalisiert damit das vorläufige Ende aller Hoffnungen auf eine baldige Konjunkturerholung in Deutschland.
weiter...
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.welt.de/tplpix/welt/chl_kpf_1.jpg]
IWF warnt vor Spekulationsblase am Anleihemarkt
Trotz möglicher EZB-Zinssenkung droht ein Ausverkauf - Inflation wird zum Dreh- und Angelpunkt
mehr...
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.reuters.de/images/reuters.gif]
Eichel äußert sich vorsichtiger zu deutscher Konjunktur
Dienstag 30 März, 2004 16:56 CET
[Blockierte Grafik: http://wwwi.reuters.com/images…54_RTRDEOP_1_PICTURE0.jpg]
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif]
http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?t…id=4938526&action=article
Breaking news
2004-03-30 20:11 GMT:
Gold futures end higher after touching 11-week highSAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Gold futures traded as high as $424.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, their highest intraday level in 11 weeks with weakness in the dollar and terrorist fears providing support. The April gold contract, however, closed at $421.70 an ounce, up $4.60 for the session, but 50 cents below Friday's closing level. This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see: http://www.cbsmarketwatch.com
-
FIRST SILVER (Toronto:FSR.TO)
Mein kleiner Silber Favorit FSR, bereitet mir immer mehr Freude!
Heute wiederum ein neues 52 Wochen Hoch mit 2.64 Dollar erreicht!
Der Chart heute:
http://ichart.yahoo.com/b?s=FSR.TO
6 Monate-Chart:
[Blockierte Grafik: http://chart.yahoo.com/c/6m/f/fsr.to.gif]
-
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold…3/images/russelheader.gif]
My suggestion - move into cash and hold gold. What kind of cash? Dollars, euros, yen. Maybe just dollars if you are an American. Gold? Two-thirds in the metal and one third in the stocks. What gold stocks? Newmont, GSS, PDG, WHT. That in a few sentences is my best advice. Please do it.
Richard Russell
Editor-in-chief - DOW THEORY LETTERS
http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/dtlol.nsfMarch 31, 2004
weiter...