Beiträge von wasserzeichen

416$ ist mein Tip....langsam kommt wieder Momentum in den Markt und die Fundamentalien werden immer besser für Gold.
Andererseits gibt es natürlich einige charttechnischen Hürden zu überwinden und die cabals werden jede kleine Chance zum draufhauen nutzen.Let's see....

Hm,bislang keine Knüppelei!Gold bei 402 und Silber bei 6,19!

Nächste cabal-shortattacke vermute ich bei ca. 6,30!Let's see.....

Naja,ganz so ohne weiteres wird sich nach einer handfesten Krise kein "Neues" Fiat-money System installieren lassen!Deswegen denke ich:Man wird wärend einer langen,vielleicht sogar sehr langen Krise genügend Zeit haben,sein physisches Material in
(heute schon interessante,bis dahin vielleicht sogar sehr interessante!!) Werte tauschen zu können! (Süsswasserquelle,Landwirtschaftl.Nutzfläche,Waldgebiete etc.)

Klappt schon meistens über ebay....
Hab gerade einige 2Unzen-Kookaburras über einen ebay-Münzhändler für 17,50 das Stck.
erhalten,kann mich garnicht satt sehen an den Dingern!

@Goldbugs

Sehr interessanter Artikel.....ob der Euro aber tatsächlich das "Zeug" zur neuen Fiat-money
Reservewährung hat,bleibt sehr zweifelhaft!Ich glaub kaum,das die Völker dieser Welt ein zweites mal in so kurzer Zeit Lust haben,ihre realen Werte in bunte Papierzettelchen anzulegen.....

Hier noch was zum Silber:

I'm insanely bullish on silver
Jason Hommel
June 18, 2004

I just returned from speaking in Vancouver on June 13-14, 2004 at the World Gold, PGM & Diamond Investment Conference. Since I gave several speeches on silver, I've become more bullish on silver. Why? Several reasons. Normally, I write once a week, which gives me time to think slower.

But in preparing for my speeches, I was forced to evaluate all the bullish reasons for silver together, all at once. And while speaking, I was forced to think faster.

After speaking, many people had questions on one specific area of the silver market, which I was usually able to answer, because I've been reading and writing about silver now for years.

In general, the people who came to me with questions were already bullish on silver, since they went to attend a mining show, and since they came to see me speak on silver. And yet, it seemed to me that they just wanted me to look them in the eye, and really say how bullish on silver I really was. They were looking for confirmation. In other words, they asked very general questions like "How high do you think silver will really go," and "How soon," and then they might ask, "Do you really think so?" even after I answered such questions. Each time, I had to re-think everything, and re-present everything, and re-summarize everything.

When writing, I don't like to repeat myself. When speaking, and answering people's questions, I was forced to repeat myself, over and over.

Furthermore, the feedback I received from people was instant. When speaking, I have the chance to see the facial expressions change as I present each bullish argument. However, when I write on the web, I present many arguments at once in a single essay, and so I don't necessarily know which arguments resonate the strongest with the readers, and convince them the most.

So, here are the two most bullish factors affecting silver.

1. The world has nearly run out of silver.

2. The nations of the world have printed up nearly unlimited amounts of unbacked paper money.

Put together, these two factors have never occurred before in the history of mankind.

True, the world was once using silver as money in many nations at once. But back then, in the late 1800's, the world had 5-10 billion ounces of silver to use as money. Today, we have much, much less, because most of the silver that has ever been mined in the world has been consumed by industry, and we may be down to about only one billion ounces or less.

True, there have been hyper-inflations as paper money has been printed to excess. But at those times, it was usually in one nation at a time, and there was still plenty of silver (and gold) to be used as money.

Today, no nation is using silver as money. And today, the world is almost out of silver. These factors create this once-in-history opportunity.

Silver today may be the best investment opportunity in the history of mankind.

One of the arguments that seemed to resonate the most with listeners was that at one time in history, a day's wage was a silver dime, or a silver quarter, or up to one or two silver dollars for miners, who were among the highest paid professionals in the world.

This fact alone presents the case: "A day's wage used to be a silver dime, or quarter." When I said that, faces lit up in recognition of the bullish case for silver. The reason why this argument is the best is that it shows how undervalued silver is, without putting a dollar amount on the change in value that will take place.

What's more, I can say with confidence that a day's wage will probably be less than a silver dime, since today, the world has consumed most of the world's silver. Thus, a silver dime may become a week's wage, or even a month, I don't know!

But let's value that in terms of dollars. Today, a day's wage is up to $100 to $200 for skilled labor, let's say $150. At $6/oz., that's 25 ounces of silver. A silver dime contains .0715 of an ounce of silver. 25 / .0715 = 350. I'm saying that if the world has a similar amount of silver as it did in the past, silver could rise by a factor of 350 times higher price than at $6/oz. However, since silver is more scarce today than in the past, and since we have many industrial uses that are consuming silver that we did not have in the late 1800's, then I'm way more bullish than that.

So, How High?

I'm saying I'm way more bullish on silver than saying it can go 350 x $6, or $2100/oz. I believe the price of silver will far exceed that due to the exhausted supplies, and the unrelenting massive industrial demand.

So, How Soon?

Given that the world is almost out of above ground refined silver, a permanant major price rise could happen at any time. The two silver surveys estimate there is about 200 million ounces to 600 million ounces of silver in known verifiable locations. At the COMEX, as of close of business: 06/18/2004, there are 45.8 mil oz. registered for delivery, and 71.9 million oz. Eligible. However, the silver in either category may be held by long term investors, who may be reading this very commentary, and who may not sell until much higher prices. Silver is coming to market, uneconomically, through three main sources: 1. As a byproduct of other mining, and 2. as people inherit silver and then sell it for the quick cash, and 3. as governments and bullion banks dump it. These supplies are meeting current demand. Literally, however, at $6/oz., a billion dollars cannot buy silver anymore. By the time a billionaire tried to buy silver bullion with a billion dollars, the price may be pushed up to about $40/oz. At $6/oz, a billion dollars is 167 million ounces. There is just not that much silver for sale at $6/oz. in the world today. If a billionaire was willing to pay any price to obtain "a billion dollars of silver", and if he found out that he could only obtain 25 million ounces, he might bid the price up to $40/oz.! Therefore, a major price rise can happen at any time one very wealthy person decides to buy.

The other reason I'm so much more bullish is that nobody presented any arguments to me that refuted what I was saying. If you go out in public, and say something ridiculous, you expect to be corrected rather quickly. But I wasn't. But two people raised some objections, which I will mention.

The first was "The dollar will never be destroyed, because the U.S. is too big." I will refute this argument by saying that the U.S. is not bigger than the world, just like the Titanic was not bigger than the ocean. The world is bigger. Furthermore, all frauds in the history of the world, and all fraudulent paper money in the history of mankind, all come to an end at some point.

Some investors said, "The dollar may collapse to zero, but not in my lifetime." This is a rather sad commentary on the state of mind of many older investors. They have no trouble investing in fraudulent dollars, thereby helping to support fraud. They may be approaching the end of their lives, but they have no thought of the eternal ramifications that their actions here on earth may have on their soul. If anything, the elder investors should be even more concerned that they are doing the right thing in God's eyes, not only for their own souls, but also for the benefit of those who will come after them. Unfortunately, it seems as if they are only out for the quick buck! The 70 and 80 year olds! Amazing!

Another investor said, "Perhaps people are not investing in silver, because they have heard this silver story for 15 years now, or longer." However, the silver story is changing significantly. There has been an ongoing deficit, and it has reduced above ground silver supplies at about the same rate as the size of the deficit. So, the silver story is changing. The warning is now more clear and urgent than ever before. So, if these investors who have heard the story have not yet moved into silver to protect themselves, they will have absolutely nobody but themselves to blame.

I would also like to address two other arguments that came up at the show.

The first was that India has plenty of silver that they may export, and may cap the silver price. Actually, India is a large importer of silver. Therefore, India is not capping the price, but supporting the price. There is no need to wonder whether India's supplies of silver may cap the price until they become sellers.

Second, it was pointed out that mining exploration is extremely risky. The point was made by several authors that only one in 1000 or one in 3000 exploration projects become mines. That may be true during the past 24 year bear market, but will not likely remain true if we have a bull market that drives the price up significantly. Today, there are virtually no silver mines operating at a profit, and most silver is produced as a byproduct of lead, zinc, copper, and gold mining. The fact that silver mining is an unprofitable business goes to show exactly why silver is too cheap!

As the New York Times, January 11, 1859, page 2 said--- "It is well known that the most colossal fortunes the world ever saw have been based on silver mines..." --quote found by silver researcher, Charles Savoie.

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Paper money fails when paper money is no longer able to buy the things that the holders of the paper money wish to buy. Today, that is happening more and more each day. Supply shortages are evidence of communism, which, it has been proven, does not work. We are seeing supply shortages in uranium, electricity, natural gas, oil, iron, steel, cement, copper, zinc, cobalt, nickel, selenium, and silver. (And I may have left out many other important commodities.) If you have a billion dollars, and you cannot buy a billion dollars of silver or basic commodities, your dollars are no good! Well, actually, a billionaire will always be able to buy a "billion dollars worth" of silver, but just not at today's prices!

Perhaps the reason that it has taken so long for paper money to fail in the U.S.A. is that the very wealthy people have nothing substantial to buy. The U.S. is already industrialized. We already have plenty of mansions, sky scrapers, highways, bridges, and those expensive things. However, in China, they are still industrializing. They are building everything at a rapid pace, and so, the raw materials for building all those things are finally running out.

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Inflation vs. deflation? Low interest rates vs. high interest rates?

I believe whether there is inflation or deflation, the price of gold and silver will go way up from here, and the reason is how much paper money they have created; excessively and fraudulently.

If there is inflation, of course, gold and silver will go up.

If there is deflation, it is usually the result of bankruptcies. If money is being destroyed due to bank failures, it would encourage other depositors to withdraw their money and to buy gold and silver, which do not default.

Richard Russell was recently bullish on silver, and then he backed off. He has written that if there is a deflation, that silver will not perform well, since silver is "demonitized" during a deflation. Richard Russell has said that the high levels of debt are like a short position on the dollar, and that it is dollars (not gold or silver) that will be in strong demand to pay off the debt. Thus, he concludes that people may even sell gold or silver to raise the dollars needed to pay off debt.

Let me refute Richard's argument. I believe that those who are in debt will be more likely to buy silver to pay off their debts! As an example, look at General Motors, (GM). GM has a market cap of $27 Billion dollars, and a P/E ratio of 10. Thus, they earn about $2.7 billion per year. GM has $28 billion in cash, and $297 billion of debt. Thus, it will take GM over 100 years to pay off their debt! If interest rates rise by more than 1% of what they are today, GM is effectively bankrupt. If not for the debt, GM may look like a good company. I imagine the only thing that will save GM from bankruptcy is a massive inflation. Interestingly, GM can cause such an inflation by buying silver, and pushing the price up to about $50/oz., by spending less than a billion dollars. GM has $27 billion on hand, so why not? But GM is not likely going to be able to sell $297 billion dollars worth of gold or silver to pay off their debt.

What is Richard Russell thinking? There is not enough gold or silver at these prices to pay off the dollar denominated debts, not at all. The debt load on society is perhaps $30 to $40 trillion, and there is less than $2 trillion in gold. If anything, people are more likely to take out a second mortgage on their homes, or borrow on their credit cards (strategies I do not recommend), and use the money to invest in silver bullion, not the other way around!

Historically speaking, allowing silver to be used as money is "inflationary" since silver would add to the money supply that consisted otherwise, only of gold. However, today it is different. Today, neither silver nor gold is used as money. Today, a deflation will be caused by bankruptcies, not by reducing silver's role as money. You cannot reduce silver's role as money any further than it already is, since silver it not being used as money anywhere in the world. With no monetary demand for silver, monetary demand can only go up, it cannot go down.

Furthermore, M3 could deflate all the way down to $4.5 trillion from the $ 9 trillion it is today, and the gold price could still skyrocket to $16,000/oz., instead of $35,000/oz. Deflation will not cause the gold price to drop, but rather, it will go up, regardless.

Now, on to interest rates.

If interest rates stay low, such easy money creation by the U.S. Federal reserve will create further inflation, and will cause gold to go up.

If interest rates go up, it will likely be the result of people selling more bonds than the Fed can buy, since the Fed has been buying bonds to keep up the bond market. Thus, if people sell bonds, it will be because they will be looking for another competing asset in which to invest that will provide a return, such as gold and silver.

Therefore, I do not care whether we have more or less inflation from here, I do not care where interest rates go from here.

The point I make is that it is the past inflation and money creation that has already taken place that will eventually catch up to us and will cause gold and silver to go way, way up. This is a much neglected point among market commentators.

How much money is there? How much wealth is there in bonds? These are the two biggest questions, often overlooked.

There is over $9 trillion in M3, money in U.S. banks. If all that money would be backed by the official U.S. gold of 261 million oz., the gold price would be over $35,000/oz.

There is over $20 trillion in bonds. If all that "money" was backed by U.S. gold, the gold price would be over $110,000/oz.

No changes in inflation or deflation, or changes in interest rates, can change those facts.

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The death of paper money!

Modern society today uses paper money, it is said, for "convenience" and by "mutual agreement". This is communism, make no mistake, and it will fail. Some people think that gold and silver have no future, unless everyone were to move to gold and silver all at once, and they do not see that happening, and so they are willing to "follow the crowd" and stay in paper money.

What they do not realize is how much money has been fraudulently created, and how few investors need to buy gold and silver to cause a major change in the prices!

By the time less than 1% of dollar holders sell dollars for gold and silver, the prices will far exceed $1000/oz for gold and $50/oz. for silver! Thus, it will not take a shift of all of society to create major price changes. And by the time silver rises to reach $50/oz. how many more people than 1% of society will want to buy silver? If it's more than 2%, we will have a positive feedback source of escalating monetary demand. And that's exactly how paper currencies fail. When they fail, they fail rather quickly, so that people literally have no escape and no warning, except for the warnings that are being issued now by people like me.

People who think they will be able to "follow the crowd" back into paper money will likely never get the chance, or they will move far too late.

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The big name newsletter writers.

At the gold show in Vancouver, many newsletter writers were very bullish on silver, moreso than gold. David Morgan, of course, is the recognized "silver guru", and there was myself, of course. Two other big names are Doug Casey, who is also bullish on silver. Doug Casey's latest newsletter covers the silver fundamentals. And Bill Murphy is bullish on silver, and has supported Ted Butler's work. Bill Bonner, at the gold show in New York in June 2-3, did not mention silver, but had just issued a silver informational email. Jim Dines is also bullish on silver.

The warnings are going out. Very well respected newsletter writers have investigated the silver situation, and are putting their reputations, and investment portfolios on the line, and into silver. Are you?

For more information, or to sign up for my free weekly silver stock report, please see goldismoney.com

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THE FED AND THE GOLD PRICE

By Kenneth J. Gerbino Printer Friendly Version
June 18, 2004

In the last five months $213 billion new dollars have been added to the U.S money supply (M2). Amazingly, no one in the mainstream financial community questions this.
Looking over some past Federal Reserve archives one finds that $213 billion was all the money in circulation in 1962. Currently it is $6.2 trillion. All the material items of wealth in this country (buildings, roads, cars, aircraft carriers, toasters, TV sets etc.) were created in the 173 years leading up to 1962 with that $213 billion circulating. Have we come close to that real wealth creation in the last five months? This is a huge wake up call that something is not right. This excessive money creation, as history attests, will bring along an enduring inflation created by the same people pledged to control it.

The Fed has never been able to stop inflation. Higher interest rates do not stop inflation. This is a false economic theory. There are no statistics to prove higher rates stop inflation. Stopping inflation means if you have a 3% increase in consumer prices, you will have a 3% decrease soon thereafter. That is stopping inflation. If you have a fever at 103, well above the normal 98.6 and you go to your doctor to stop the fever, you expect him to get you back to 98.6. In the world of economics we have accepted prices to go up and if the prices just stay steady at that new price level we are suppose to be happy. That is the same thing as your doctor telling you, no problem you are steady at 103 have a nice day. Inflation builds on itself month after month year after year. It is like the economy has built up a 150 degrees temperature.

Also, in past inflationary periods the Fed has raised interest rates for years and all during those years the CPI continued to go higher and higher. Higher interest rates not only cannot reverse (stop) inflation they cannot hold it in check. Prices are rising from money that has been in the system and has been churning around from years before. Wall Street professionals who do not understand this concept will be vulnerable to the future changes that will occur as inflation distorts our economy and markets once again and for all the same reasons.

The Fed’s purpose is two-fold, to create money and be the lender of last resort to the government when those multi-billion dollar deficits show up and to be the protector of the U.S. banking system. No one will argue that if the banks go under we are all in a lot of trouble, so the Fed over the decades has enjoyed a reputation that has led the country and the politicians to believe one can print a lot of money forever with manageable consequences. This is true for small-scale stuff, but when you are talking about trillions of dollars it is obvious to some of us that we are now past the point of no return.

The Fed also controls interest rates. In a country that espouses free market economics, this aspect of their daily activities is hard to comprehend. There is nothing more important in a free market economy than to allow money and the cost of money - interest rates - to be left alone and to allow the daily interaction of millions of people and tens of thousands of institutions and millions of transactions to function without interventions and manipulations. The fact that any institution is intervening in any marketplace to the tune of tens of billions of dollars, sometimes on a daily basis, is something to fear.

These activities by the Fed will be the eventual driving force behind excessive inflation, a depreciating currency and a much higher price of gold. The Fed and other foreign central banks are following policies that are contrary to basic economic truths, classical economic thought and just plain common sense.

My late friend, Nobel laureate (economics), F.A. Hayek told me years ago when I visited him in Germany that decades before he had a discussion with the renowned economist John Maynard Keynes, where Keynes told him that he (Keynes) had made a terrible mistake and was prepared to write an important piece to disavow deficit spending and hence paper money creation. But two weeks later Keynes died. World governments have all embraced Keynes’ mixed up theories because it gave them a convenient solution to cover up their economic mismanagement. Because of this, huge debts and huge piles of paper money have been fostered on populations creating what is now an economic tidal wave that is now on the horizon.

As inflation is always the result of excessive expansions of money in a society, we should simply do the math. Huge money increases equal huge producer and consumer price increases eventually. There is no doubt about the money supply increases, so there should be no doubt about a strong and prolonged inflation that has obviously started. This is all bullish for gold. For other articles on gold and the economy please visit the commentary section of our website at http://www.kengerbino.com

Kenneth J. Gerbino

*****

Kenneth J. Gerbino & Company
Investment Management
9595 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 303
Beverly Hills, California 90212
Telephone (310) 550-6304
Fax (310) 550-0814
E-Mail: kjgco@att.net
Website: http://www.kengerbino.com

....da wird doch heute nicht die 6Dollar-rule beim Gold fallen wollen?!

FOKUS 1-Anschläge im Irak und hohe Teuerung belasten Wall Street
[17 Jun 2004 - 19:36]

New York, 17. Jun (Reuters) - Ein überraschend starker Anstieg der US-Erzeugerpreise im Mai hat die Inflation am Donnerstag wieder in den Blick der Investoren an der Wall Street gerückt und damit die Spekulation über deutlich steigende Zinsen genährt. Die führenden Börsenindizes reagierten darauf mit Verlusten.

Börsianern zufolge belasteten zudem die erneuten Anschläge im Irak, die Unterbrechung der Ölexporte des Golflandes und wieder steigende Ölpreise die Stimmung am Markt. Der Technologiebereich leide unter deutlichen Einbußen der Aktien von Cisco Systems <CSCO.O> und Intel <INTC> , sagten Händler.

Der Dow-Jones-Index <.DJI> der Standardwerte verlor bis zum New Yorker Mittagshandel 0,01 Prozent auf rund 10.379 Punkte. Der breiter gefasste S&P-500-Index <.SPX> gab um 0,12 Prozent auf etwa 1132 Zähler nach. Der Index der Technologiebörse Nasdaq <.IXIC> -Index fiel um 0,61 Prozent auf 1986 Punkte.

Die Erzeugerpreisdaten "haben die Furcht vor höheren Zinsen in den Markt zurückgebracht", sagte Scott Lynch von Credit Suisse First Boston. Kräftig anziehende Lebensmittel- und Energiekosten hatten die an Fabriken, Agrarbetriebe und Raffinerien gezahlten Preise im Mai so stark wie seit einem Jahr nicht mehr anziehen lassen. Die Investoren sähen nun dem Treffen des für die Geldpolitik der US-Notenbank (Fed) verantwortlichen Offenmarktausschusses (FOMC) am 29. und 30. Juni wieder mit größerer Spannung entgegen, sagten Händler. Dabei hatte US-Notenbankchef Alan Greenspan die Märkte erst am Dienstag zwar auf ein allmähliches Ende der Niedrigzinsphase vorbereitet, aber zugleich Spekulationen über eine kräftige Anhebung der Leitzinsen gedämpft. Die lockere Geldpolitik werde in den nächsten Quartalen sehr wahrscheinlich "maßvoll" beendet, hatte er erklärt. Viele Volkswirte rechnen mit einer Erhöhung des als Schlüsselzins der Fed geltenden Zielsatzes für Tagesgeld um 25 Basispunkte. Derzeit liegt der Satz mit 1,00 Prozent auf dem niedrigsten Niveau seit 1958.

Die erneuten Anschläge im Irak und Sorgen um die Ölversorgung der Industrieländer wegen der Unterbrechung der irakischen Ölexporte haben Börsianern zufolge die Ölpreise wieder anziehen lassen und für eine zusätzliche Eintrübung der Stimmung an den Aktienmärkten gesorgt. Für ein Barrel (knapp 159 Liter) der marktführenden Nordsee-Sorte Brent zur Lieferung im August wurden gegen Abend in London mit 35,95 Dollar 75 US-Cent mehr als am Vortag bezahlt. Der Preis für leichtes US-Öl zog um rund einen Dollar auf 38,25 Dollar an.

Die Aktien des weltgrößten Netzwerkherstellers Cisco Systems verloren mehr als zwei Prozent auf 23,37 Dollar. Das Unternehmen hatte zuvor angekündigt, die Übernahme des kleineren Konkurrenten Procket Networks für 89 Millionen Dollar in bar zu planen. Zudem wünsche sich der Konzern eine Partnerschaft mit dem kanadischen Telekom-Ausrüster und Netzwerk-Produzenten Nortel <NT.TO> .

In den Abwärtssog gerieten auch die Papiere des weltgrößten Chipherstellers Intel. Diese fielen um fast 1,7 Prozent auf 27,65 Dollar.

fgc/seh

TABELLE-Zahl der US-Wohnbaubeginne im Mai gesunken
[16 Jun 2004 - 14:37]

Washington, 16. Jun (Reuters) - Das US-Handelsministerium
hat am Mittwoch in Washington folgende Daten für die Entwicklung
der US-Wohnbaubeginne im Mai veröffentlicht:

MAI 2004 APR 2004

Wohnbaubeginne 1,967 Mio 1,981 Mio
(aufs Jahr (rev. v. 1,969)
hochgerechnet)

Veränderung
gegenüber Vormonat - 0,7 vH - 1,0 vH
(rev. v. - 2,1)

ANMERKUNG: Von Reuters befragte Volkswirte hatten im Schnitt
für die Wohnbaubeginne im Berichtsmonat auf das Jahr
hochgerechnet 1,950 Millionen vorausgesagt.
chg/phi

THE GOLD CYCLE OF THE 1970's MAY REASSERT ITSELF

By Dr. Richard S. Appel

June 11, 2004

http://www.financialinsights.org

With each passing day the likelihood increases that gold and the stocks of the companies that explore for it have posted their ultimate low-points for this corrective phase. After earlier briefly exceeding $430 an ounce, gold touched its recent nadir at about $371 on May 7. Similarly, as seen in the action of the HUI, the gold producers as a group struck their low on May 10, at about 164. As most long-term readers know I do not possess a crystal ball. Nor do I have the ability to either read Tarot Cards or discern the future by looking at the stars. However, what I do have is a certain amount of experience, from my decades long participation in the precious metals arena, that I want to share with you.

As do most actively traded items, gold and gold stocks move in a series of defined ebbs and flows. They travel from areas where they are overvalued to zones when they are relatively undervalued. First, I will attempt to describe the market action that occurs within an ongoing Bear or Bull Market, and their causes.

During a Bear Market, price movements tend to thrust in a declining direction until they reach a condition which is termed, “oversold”. This is the culmination of the build up of panic and fear that engulfs and effuses from the remaining bullish participants, after they suffered from mounting losses. It becomes oversold because the item has declined too far in too short a period of time, and ends in a formation that is called a “temporary bottom”. The Bear Market then relieves the oversold condition by reversing course. It temporarily moves higher in price driven to a large degree by bargain hunters. The market rises until it reaches an area where it has alleviated sufficient pressure to reverse some of the distortions that were created by the earlier excessive downward movement. In essence the market runs out of steam, the short sellers step in, and the primary downtrend reasserts itself. You can picture a Bear Market as a zigzagged line that begins at its highest point, the point where the Bull Market ended, and gradually works its way to lower and lower levels.

A Bull Market loosely travels in the opposite direction to a Bear Market. A primary difference is that Bull Markets typically take longer to unfold than Bear Markets. Thus, Bull Markets tend to have long, shallow advances while Bear Market declines tend to be sharp and comparatively shorter in duration.

Within a Bull Market, first a wave of investor emotion and enthusiasm drives the stock, commodity or whatever to a high level where it too has gotten ahead of itself. This is called a “temporary top”. It has been driven too far to the upside in too short a period, and it becomes what is termed “overbought”. The fundamentals have not adequately expressed themselves to justify the current lofty prices and a secondary correction then sets in. Then, the market falls or drifts downward, until the excitement that had carried it to its recent high is all but forgotten. It is as if the market must first fall back to purge itself of the earlier excessive expression of emotions, before it can attack and surpass its recent temporary top. A Bull Market can be viewed as a zigzagged line which begins at a low level and gradually works to higher and higher price ranges.

There is much confusion by the average part-time investor, which encompasses +99% of all market players, surrounding an accurate explanation of what is a Bull or Bear Market. It is extremely difficult to define these terms! In fact, I believe that this is the reason why their definitions are among the most abused and misunderstood in the field of markets! I have attempted to describe above the fashion in which Bull and Bear Markets unfold as they are developing. They work in a series of pulses that over time carry the markets either to higher and higher levels, in the case of a Bull Market, or to lower and lower ones when the bear is in control.

My concept of a true primary Bull or Bear Market is best expressed by the emotional state of it investors, the values offered by the item involved, and by money flow and trading volume changes. Further, rarely does a true Bull Market last less than a year or two, and they often live far longer. Bear Markets on the other hand typically require between one-third and two-thirds of the timeframe of its earlier Bull Market to complete themselves.

Bull Markets are conceived after a Bear Market has essentially financially decimated the earlier bullish players. Further, the mood surrounding the terminal phase of a Bear Market is so bleak that most of the earlier bulls loathe the day that they ever invested in the market. Additionally, at Bear Market bottoms, trading volumes are far lower than those that accompanied the earlier Bull Market peaks that they followed. They could be as little as 10% to 15% of their former highest volumes. Finally, when the bear has breathed his last, the item in question has been driven to such a depressed level that it offers unquestionable value; they are dirt cheap! Also, their prices have become so depressed and have caused so much pain that most pundits believe that a new Bull Market can never again occur, and that prices will continue far lower. Unfortunately, by this time the earlier bullish investors have either little remaining capital available with which to invest, or they are literally terrified of making purchases for fear of further losses. This was the state of the gold market in February 2001, when gold had posted its double bottom low at $255, and when the HUI in November, 2000, had approached its final bottom near 35.

Conversely, the emotional state of Bull Market participants during its final stage is one of near universal joy, excitement and avarice. Future projections are proffered which state that prices are essentially “going to the moon”. The book stating that the Dow would go to 35,000 is a good example of the mentality held by the bulls during such times. Further, “this time it’s different” or some similar phrase becomes the new bullish mantra.

This mind-set and the sharply rising prices attract an incredible amount of capital which adds fuel the fire. The influx of money moves the general stock price level to such incredible heights that overvaluation is the rule of the day. This is accompanied by swelling trading volume levels. Few care how overpriced are their purchases because they are certain that they will become even more overvalued in the future. Reason is thrown to the wind and the typical mind-set personifies “the greater fool theory”; that some greater fool will step up and buy their stocks at a higher price when they are ready to sell.

The most confusing concept that I believe the overwhelming majority of experts and novices alike have difficulty grasping, is that both Bull and Bear Markets ONLY END FROM EXHAUSTION. They terminate after the last bull in the case of a Bull Market, and the last bear in a Bear Market has been satisfied. The final bulls had invested their remaining capital and the last bears had sold their leftover shares of stock. Whereas immeasurable optimism and excitement attend Bull Market tops, Bear Market lows are permeated by depression, fear and gloom as the last bears panic, and sell their shares for whatever the market will give them.

As you can see, I have digressed from discussing my topic. Further, I oversimplified my descriptions in order to help less sophisticated investors better understand these frequently used phrases. I felt that a better understanding of the concepts of Bull and Bear Markets are lacking by most market players and may help readers in the future. Additionally, this information may prove helpful in perusing the balance of this missive.

We have all suffered from the present price reversals in gold and gold shares. This commentary can also be extended to include silver and silver stocks. The secondary correction began several months ago when gold had briefly traveled above $430 an ounce and the HUI had approached 260. At these levels gold had so extended itself that it was trading well over 10% above its 200 day moving average, and the HUI had traveled a huge 25% above its similar average. The junior companies on the other hand had posted their peaks between the end of November 2003, and February 2004, and had been bid to levels that approached their deemed values if they had discovered what they had hoped to find.
In effect, all of these markets had become overpriced. The stage was surely set for a correction. Yet, all but the most hardened traders were too excited, emotionally involved, or were too busy counting their profits to recognize that fact.

This period of overvaluation and extreme optimism gave birth to the present reversal. This is different than the beginning of a Bear Market. It is true that the markets had become overvalued and investor excitement and sentiment had reached peaks. However, when the final days of the precious metals Bull Market arrives, the lofty levels of enthusiasm, greed, trading volumes and over-valuations will pale those that occurred earlier this year.

To date, the correction has taken prices to ranges where they again offer good value. Further, the excitement and elation that attended the gold market earlier this year has been replaced by fear, doubts, confusion and depression. All but the “strongest hands” have jettisoned their market positions. Additionally, just as the stage was set for a correction when investor excitement caused investors to battle one another to purchase more and more gold or gold shares, today few desire to be involved in their purchase. This is the reason for the reduced trading volumes in all of these markets.

During its great Bull Market that began in 1972, and ended in early 1980, an annual trading pattern appeared that tended to repeat itself throughout its duration. In this era gold and the gold stocks often crested during February or March. From that peak they tended to decline into the summer months and often bottomed in July or August. After those lows, they rose sharply into the October to mid-November period, only to again enter a corrective phase which lasted several weeks. The markets then ascended until a temporary peak was struck early in the new year. This cycle was not perfectly adhered to but segments of it did appear during the majority of years in that timeframe.

The most rapidly rising period was typically from the summer lows until the mid-late autumn highs. This corresponded with the time of greatest seasonal demand which was created by the need for gold by the jewelry trade, as they geared up for the approaching Christmas Season. The surge in gold and gold shares that occurred during the early part of the year appeared to coincide with the Indian wedding season. It is customary in India for a bride’s family to give the newlyweds presents in the form of gold, and the annual amount of the noble metal taken from the market for this purpose is quite substantial. It followed that after the periods of demand generated by the jewelry trade and the Indian wedding seasons was filled, prices typically fell off. I would not be surprised if a similar trading pattern will tend to repeat itself as the present secular gold Bull Market unfolds. In any event, it is something to watch for and be prepared.

Given the above, I am becoming increasingly convinced that gold, silver and the majority of major gold and silver stocks have or will shortly post their lows for this correction. This does not mean that we will soon be rewarded with sharply higher prices! I would not be surprised if further base building occurs before gold and the primary gold producers again advance and exceed their recent highs.

The junior gold and silver shares are a different story. Their annual price patterns differ in a few ways from those of the major golds and gold itself. They tend to mirror gold’s price movement early in the year and into the summer. However, they normally languish during the summer months and may not perform well even if gold moves higher at times. This is likely due to the fact that many of the players take turns vacationing during this period. Additionally, historically it is a time when little good exploration news enters the market to excite it. This will occur later during the late summer or autumn months when field results begin to flow. Further, when gold consolidates in price, as I believe it is in the process of doing, the juniors tend to drift lower. I feel that many of these companies may have posted their lows. Yet, barring an important rise in gold and silver or a major discovery, if history is to repeat, this is the fashion in which I expect them to trade in the near term.

Musing on other junior cycles, the best annual buying opportunity for these small companies often occurs during the first or second week of December, after they have sold off from the highs of a month or two earlier. Also, the junior sector is often severely affected by tax-loss selling. This begins during the mid-end of October and extends well into November and often into December. They tend to be worse during down market years.

The annual gold cycle of the 1970's occurred within the context of its great secular Bull Market. However, while it did not unfold in a textbook fashion in each year, it did generally follow the price pattern that I have described. I believe that we may be presented with a similar pattern in a number of future years, or at minimum experience annual tops and bottoms which roughly conform to this sequence, as gold’s present Bull Market matures.

------------------------

Hm,habe erst gestern bei ebay 30 Madison-Mint-1ozBarren für 210€ ersteigert (incl. Versand!)
Mal sehen ob das klappt!(Wäre pro unze exakt 7€...)

Zitat

Das Weltwährungssystem der Zukunft, so die Prophezeiung der Autoren, wird durch Gold und andere Rohstoffe gedeckt sein. Eine Rückkehr zum Goldstandard? Nicht gerade ein origineller Traum, der hier geträumt wird - auch der Goldstandard kann kein stabiles Geld garantieren, wie die Geschichte lehrt.

Bei aller ,vielleicht berechtigten Kritik an Leuschel u. Friend:
Das da oben ist mal wieder der übliche Argumentationshumbug der Presseheinis!
Der Goldstandart war in der Vergangenheit immer nur dann kein Garant für stabile Verhältnisse,wenn an seiner Existenz herumgesägt wurde,oder nach erfolgreicher Abschaffung....

Gold-999

Sehr interessantes Thema!Hab mich gerade mit der "Mini-Anlagen"homepage beschäftigt!
(Konnte blos noch nicht rausfinden welches equipment speziell für Silber gedacht ist)

Für die Beschaffung von -sagen wir mal-"Bruchsilber" hätte ich evtl. eine geniale Quelle,muss
ich aber erst noch abchecken,bevor ich hier was blödes poste....

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/SI.png]

@Goldbugs

Damit die Arbeit nicht wieder an Dir hängen bleibt:

Letzte Meldungen
TABELLE-US-Einfuhrpreise im Mai zum Vormonat stark gestiegen
[10 Jun 2004 - 14:36]

Washington, 10. Jun (Reuters) - Die Einfuhrpreise in den USA
sind im Mai zum Vormonat wie erwartet gestiegen. Das
US-Arbeitsministerium veröffentlichte am Donnerstag in
Washington folgende Daten:

MAI 2004 APR 2004
Einfuhrpreise
Veränderung gg. Vormonat + 1,6 vH + 0,2 vH

Ausfuhrpreise
Veränderung gg. Vormonat + 0,3 vH + 0,7 vH
(rev. v. + 0,6)

ANMERKUNG: Von Reuters befragte Analysten hatten bei den
Einfuhrpreisen mit einem Anstieg um 0,8 Prozent gerechnet.
kes/phi

TABELLE-Zahl der US-Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe gestiegen
[10 Jun 2004 - 14:34]

Washington, 10. Jun (Reuters) - Das US-Arbeitsministerium
hat am Donnerstag in Washington folgende Daten zur Entwicklung
der Zahl der Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe in der Woche zum
5. Juni veröffentlicht:

WOCHE ZUM WOCHE ZUM
05. JUN 29. MAI
2004 2004

ERSTANTRÄGE 352.000 340.000
(rev. v. 339.000)

VIER-WOCHEN-
DURCHSCHNITT 346.000 341.250
(rev. v. 341.000)

ANMERKUNG: Von Reuters befragte Volkswirte hatten für die
Berichtswoche im Schnitt mit 335.000 Erstanträgen auf
Arbeitslosenhilfe gerechnet.
kes/phi

Silberhandelsverbot?
Ui,das wär geil!Aber bitte mit 1Tag vorher Ankündigung,das ich bei 20$ meine Calls noch verkaufen und in Barren tauschen kann!

Mein Tipp ist ebenfalls richtig wiedergegeben.....

yoyo

Da sind wir wieder beim komplexesten aller Themen!
Es ist natürlich schon so: Wenn das PPT mal wieder an einem Handelstag ein paar Milliarden frischgedruckte Dollars in den zu stützenden Aktienmarkt schiebt,dann steigt zwar die Geldmenge weiter an,die Inflation aber zunächst nicht,da ja das "injizierte" Geld bei irgendwelchen Kartellmitgliedern in Form von Aktien oder Future-Longpositionen festhängt.Oder seh ich das falsch?

Anders sieht die Sache beim Thema "wachsende Staatsverschuldung in den gealterten und damit nur noch aus Versprechungen bestehenden Demokratien" aus:
Hier fliesst alles frischgedrucktes und niemals erwirtschaftetes Geld ja über steuervergünstigungen,Subventionen etc. ungehindert an Kommunen , Parteien,Beamte ohne aber
je die Taschen des kleinen Mannes zu erreichen.Trotzdem(oder gerade deswegen) seh ich auch
hier keinen direkten Zusammenhang zwischen steigender Geldmenge und steigenden Preisen.

Ich denke,die Entwicklung der Realinflation ist doch sehr stark als "Fieberthermometer" im Verhältnis "Machthaber/Staatskoloss" und dem eigentlichen "Volk" zu betrachten!Je mehr
den kleinen Leuten/Geschäftsleuten das Leben vom Staat schwergemacht wird,umso höher ist doch die Bereitschaft,den sinkenden Lebensstandart über eine sich dann später selbsternährende Preissteigerungsspirale zu kompensieren,was dann endlich dazu führt,dass der Staat um die absolute Katastrophe (vermeintlich) zu verhindern,immer grössere Mengen Fiat money direkt unter's Volk(über die banken) zu verteilen,statt nur die Finanzmärkte
damit zu manipulieren/stützen!

Lange Rede kurzer Sinn:
Selbst wenn die weltweit vorhandene Papiergeldmenge irgendwann mal 1Trilliarde Dollar
überschritten hat,wird das lediglich ein Zeichen für den katastrophalen Zustand der
USA und ihrer Vasallenstaaten sein.Aus diesem Zustand wird höchstwarscheinlich
dann die Inflation im Geldbeutel der "Kleinen Leute" ebenso in den Himmel wachsen,wie die
Papiergeldmenge....

Mal sehen wie die COT-Zahlen nächste Woche ausschauen.....

Hier die "alten" vom 25.05.:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/SI.png]

So!Geld ist raus!

@Goldbugs

Schick gleich die mail mit meinem Tip!

Viel Glück,allerseits!

Bin natürlich auch wieder dabei!Tip folgt die nächsten Tage,muss vorher den Kaffeesatz noch mit dem SILBERlöffel umrühren! :))