Beiträge von wasserzeichen

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    ...mal wieder bezeichnend:Immer wenn grössere Bewegungen am laufen sind,dann geht kitco nicht! X(



    Hier noch die godmode-Einschätzung von gestern:



    24.05. 20:54
    SILBER "humpelt" ...
    (©GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de)
    SILBER: 5,98 $


    Aktueller Tageschart (log) seit dem 12.11.2003 (1 Kerze = 1 Tag).


    Der in der vergangenen Woche begonnene charttechnisch regelkonforme Ausbruch aus der mehrwöchigen bullishen Keilformation setzt sich heute fort, allerdings nach wie vor mit geringem Momentum. Der Anstieg insofern lediglich ein "Humpeln", was angesichts der Prügel der Vorwochen nicht sehr überraschend ist. Mit 5,98 $ steht SILBER unweit der ersten Zielmarke von 6,1372 $. Diese 6,1372 $ Marke stellt die eigentliche Schaltstelle dar. Ein Anstieg darüber ist bullish und spricht für Folge-Anstiege zu den benannten Kurszielen, ein mehrfaches Abprallen erhöht die Wahrscheinlicheit, daß SILBER noch nicht auskorrigiert hat und neue Tiefs erreichen kann. Es gilt zu beachten, daß jetzt beim ersten Erreichen der 6,1372 $ Marke ein Abpraller "normal" und "wahrscheinlich" sein wird. Wichtig ist, daß anschließend eine erneute Attacke auf die 6,1372 $ gestartet wird.
    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.godmode-charts.de/c…subcortical/O2/tgo223.gif]

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Zitat


    Es ist wohl auch höchste Zeit, dass Greenspan und Konsorten das Zinsgefüge an die wirtschaftliche Realität anpasst. Zweimal in Folge gab es erfreuliche Arbeitsmarktdaten (die US-Wirtschaft hat sowohl im März als auch im April über Erwarten reichlich Arbeitsplätze geschaffen), und die Inflationszahlen zeigen ebenfalls nach oben.


    Tja,da wird in einem - bis dahin ganz guten - Artikel schnell wieder eines der Mainstream-Lala-
    Blödel-argumente eingebaut und schon ist der eigentliche Ansatz wie weggeblasen!
    256000 neu geschaffene Stellen bei wieder ansteigenden Erstanträgen?Langsam kann man den Hirnwäsche-Humbug nicht mehr mit anschauen!Da ist unser Niquet-berndie in seiner kindlichen
    Naivität und dem daraus resultierenden Dummgewäsch fast schon sowas wie eine leichte Erheiterung......und jetzt noch einen Bundespräsidenten aus der Rohstoffdiebe und Gelddrucker-
    gilde.......


    Gute N8 armes Michel-Land!

  • ............Diskussionen zu Gold und Silber und Co...

    Zitat


    @ Karl wie du schon festgestellt hast, irgendwie fällt bei näheren betrachten auf, das die Notenbanken einiger Länder dazu gedrängt werden Ihr Gold zu Verkaufen... Da es nicht weniger wird, ist doch die Frage - Wo wandert es hin? Nun die Amis jedenfalls geben nichts her von Ihrem Schatz! Ich kann es einfach nicht glauben, sollte es Greenspann und Co tatsächlich gelingen, Ihre enormen Schulden mit Hilfe des Goldes ab zu bauen?
    Ja, die Möglichkeit besteht ernsthaf in der tat, na was dann passiert, darüber ist in vielen Beiträgen hier im Board schon spekuliert wurden...


    Ja,genau über diesen Punkt hab ich (und viele andere) hier ja auch schon was geschrieben und ich
    muss gestehen,die Logik hinter dieser These ist so bestechend einfach....es würde einen schon fast wundern,wenn die Truppe hinter Greenspan und Konsorten nicht genau an diesem Plan
    arbeitet!
    (Vielleicht gibt's ja mal irgendwie die Chance,die Entwicklung der US-Goldreserven in letzter Zeit
    auszukundschaften!Das wäre sehr,sehr interessant!Womöglich liegt das ganze Schwitzer und Ukrainer und Engländer-Gold schon längst im Keller der FED.... 8o)

  • ............Diskussionen zu Gold und Silber und Co...

    ghost_god


    Willkommen an Bord!
    Zum Thema:"Wie hoch ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Goldstandart-revivals"
    Also,derzeit gibt es m.M. nach nur einen "dezenten" Hinweis auf eine Entwicklung in diese Richtung- allerdings nur in den USA : Fast alle Zentralbanken haben oder wollen ihre Goldreserven abgebaut/abbauen.Ob der "sanfte Druck" aus den USA faktisch vorhanden ist,
    lässt sich schwer beantworten!Woher der Wind weht,lässt sich allerdings leicht aus den Gold-
    Artikeln und kommentaren der mainstream-Presse ersehen.(Wertloses Zeug....wirft keine Zinsen ab etc.,etc.)
    Nur eine Zentralbank ( oder soll ich sagen Privat-Zentralbank... ;) ) lässt über ihre Gold-strategie nichts,aber auch garnichts raus : Die FED....
    Warum sich ausgerechnet für die USA eine Rückkehr zum GS rechnen würde,wurde hier und anderswo ja schon zu genüge diskutiert....Komplettentschuldung durch Hyperinflation mit angeschlossener Währungsreform etc.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Könnte die beste Nachricht dieses Wochenendes abgeben:


    News From Senator Harry Reid - Assistant Democratic Leader From Nevada


    Senate Passes Reid, Ensign Measure To End Bias Against Investments In Gold, Silver


    Wednesday, May 12, 2004


    Washington, D.C. – The U.S. Senate has passed legislation by Senators Harry Reid (D-NV) and John Ensign (R-NV) to end unfair tax penalties on investments in precious metals.


    The Fair Treatment for Precious Metals Investors Act is part of a larger tax bill that passed the Senate late last night. It would cut the capital gains tax rate of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium to match the rate for other types of common investments. Precious metals are now classified as “collectibles” and taxed at a maximum rate of 28%, while stocks and bonds are taxed at a maximum rate of 20%. With lower taxes on precious metals, investors will be more likely to put their money into these products, thereby increasing demand and keeping prices high.


    “Many people avoid investment opportunities in precious metals because of the extra tax burden,” said Reid. “Nevadans need diversified portfolios, and yet the government has designed tax laws that make one type of investment more costly than another. This bill will fix the problem. It will help investors, and will be good for Nevada’s mining industry. Nevada is the third largest gold producer in the world, after Australia and South Africa.”


    “This important measure will provide a new level of fairness for our mining industry in Nevada, which is especially important during a time of economic uncertainty,” Ensign said. “This bill is based on the principles of fairness and healthy economic growth. I look forward to seeing it signed into law.”


    The Fair Treatment for Precious Metals Investors Act will reclassify all purchases of gold, silver, and platinum bullion, in coin and bar form. Bullion is produced for investment purposes. The bill will not directly affect prices or tax rates for smaller amounts of precious metals used for commercial purposes – like gold jewelry.


    The measure was included in the FSC/ETI bill, a tax bill that passed the Senate by a vote of 92 to 5. The House of Representatives has not passed it yet.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Nr. 2941


    Krisenstatement von Ted Buttler :




    The Great Mystery


    By: Theodore Butler



    The engineered price smash in gold and silver by the dealer community continued last week, with new lows being set in gold and silver. The bad news is the tremendous damage being suffered by innocent investors because of the obvious collusion and manipulation by the COMEX wolf pack. I know it has been a nightmare, particularly for those on margin. While speculating on margin is always risky, and you have to be prepared for the worst, the fault is not entirely with those who may have gotten in over their heads. This is a clear rig job to the downside, and to see the regulators and industry officials sit by and do nothing to a clear crime in progress is shameful.


    The good news, on the other hand, is that the market structure is improving dramatically, with the dealers covering large quantities of short positions in gold and silver. This is confirmed in the COTs. If there has been any legitimate real world supply/demand explanation, I haven't seen it. There should be no doubt in anyone's mind, that the essence of this historic and vicious sell off in silver has been to allow the dealer wolf pack to cover as many of their shorts as possible.


    It is hard for me to imagine how any reasonable person could doubt what we have just seen, namely the manipulative dealer community working overtime to force liquidation by the tech funds and other leveraged speculators, through collusion and bid-rigging. Since I thought I had explained it so clearly, it was surprising to read the following dispatch from Ross Beaty, CEO of Pan American Silver in reaction to my article last week, "Keeping Up To Date", in which I took the CEO's of four silver companies to task for doing absolutely nothing while silver investors, and shareholders of these companies, were savaged by the COMEX dealer wolf pack. First, the reaction from Mr. Beaty:


    "I have been pilloried by some people (and strongly supported by others) for criticizing Ted Butler and his conspiracy theories on the silver market. Many people have misunderstood my position or have simply refused to look at the facts on the "other side" of the coin.


    "My position is simple. I do not NEED to rely on conspiracies to know there is a profoundly bullish outlook for silver. And I can explain the market long/short reality that Ted Butler uses to promote his theories, but without needing to invent manipulations by anyone.


    "For example, there exist now well over 300 million ounces of silver sold forward to bullion banks by base metal mining companies in long-term hedge contracts (going out five years max.). These ounces are the ones the bullion banks use to go short in futures positions against speculative long positions. Banks do this simply to offset their risk on the hedge contracts. But none of those ounces show up in any market statistics - for example, COT reports on COMEX - because they exist in private contracts and will only be delivered by the mining companies when they are mined over the next few years. But the silver certainly exists - it is in the ground until it is mined. In addition to those ounces, there are more than 500 million ounces of identifiable silver bullion inventories that you can touch and feel today, as detailed by GFMS in its annual silver survey. Silver inventories in COMEX, Tokyo, Zurich, other European exchanges and vaults, and in Chinese and Indian government hands. Butler conveniently disregards that because it runs contrary to his theory of conspiracy. He makes extremely selective use of facts to say the least.


    "Please also note that my silver views do NOT extend into the gold arena, where the opportunity for government manipulation is much much greater due to the large holdings of gold by governments and the obvious bias of central bankers to hold gold prices down. In fact, I think a very good case can be made for at least some market manipulation by central bankers in the gold market.


    "For the record, I must also defend our position not to use our cash resources to buy physical silver. We have no surplus cash, and if we did we would give it back to our owners to decide what to do with it (like buy silver!). Our cash is dedicated to build new mines and expand our silver production. Had we bought silver at $8 an ounce we would be looking at a current loss of 25% of the cash deployed to buy silver. Not too clever. We are in business to be a mining company delivering the best possible leverage to silver to our investors, not a seller of dreams - there are plenty of exploration companies that do that. Leverage comes in two ways: asset leverage and income leverage. Mining companies give both to their shareholders. Mining companies build mines and take world prices as they are. Pan American has grown from zero to nearly $1 billion in market value in 10 years, and our production has grown from zero to over 12 million ounces (forecast for 2004) from five mines, while silver prices have hardly risen. That is good wealth creation by any measure and I strongly resent Butler's gratuitous comments to the contrary. Unless you produce you have zero income exposure to rising silver prices in the medium term, due to the normal 3-5 year delay of getting projects into production. Exploration and "resource holders" MAY some day take their properties to production but there are many risks in doing so, and if the properties don't reach production during the bull phase of the market cycle they may never get the exposure to higher silver prices that existing producers now have.


    "I sadly note the tendency of some people to have blind faith in the kind of loose and dubious (but strongly presented) words of people like Ted Butler, and the tendency to rely on utterly specious conspiracy theories to explain facts that can quite easily be explained without resorting to such theories. Silver has been my life for the last 10 years. I have developed good knowledge about silver markets and don't need to invent things to explain what is going on. Here are the facts: there are seriously depleted above-ground silver inventories in the world, great demand fundamentals, and constrained supply. Whenever you get those fundamentals - in any commodity - you usually see dramatic price rises. I believe that will continue for silver in the near future, as we have enjoyed in the last year. Any buying of physical silver by investors will simply hasten this. In that,


    I am absolutely on the same page as Butler.


    "Pan American is in very good shape now. We are very close to achieving our mission of becoming the world's pre-eminent silver mining company, from a standing start just 10 years ago. We now have over 34,000 shareholders owning Pan American and who have benefited as we continue our mission of delivering the best possible leverage to silver prices - in every way. In 2003 we had a "beta" of 6.6 to 1 between our share price and the silver price. In other words, for every dollar the silver price rose, our share price rose $6.60. Those who suggest an investment in physical silver is a better way than buying PAAS to play a rising silver price ignore this fact. I am extremely proud of what we have done in this company, and we are going to continue to do it as aggressively as possible in the future."


    Ross Beaty


    In addition to this letter, Mr. Beaty sent further e-mails, in which he made clear that his main gripe was that of a personal nature with me, labeling me as "nuts" and that I write "drivel." There were many other personal attacks and insults about me issued by Mr. Beaty this week, but I'm going to resist the temptation of replying in kind. I feel the silver investing community would be better served by level and factual analysis of what Mr. Beaty had to say. It is obvious to me that Beaty lashed out in anger, but that doesn't mean we can't analyze what he said unemotionally.


    First, he states that 300 million ounces of silver were forward sold by base metal by product miners. Here I believe that he is absolutely correct. Mr. Beaty, by virtue of his position in the industry (including his past presidency of the Silver Institute), would be privy to this information. But what he doesn't say is that these forward sales involved the leasing of 300 million ounces from central banks and the dumping of that physical silver on the market. All forward sales involve the leasing and sale (dumping) on the open market. A greater artificial and manipulative price depressant is hard to imagine. In fact, Beaty's 300 million ounce figure reinforces my speculation that there may be more than 1 billion ounces of silver involved in forward selling/leasing. I had assumed the miners had only forward sold 100 million ounces, and the fabricators, users and refiners had borrowed and consumed (same as sold) the vast bulk of the total amount. Knowing that the miners have sold 300 million ounces, confirms the tremendous quantity of physical silver dumped on the market. No wonder the price has been so depressed for so many years.


    What Mr. Beaty also doesn't say is that this silver can never be returned to the lenders. How can it be? We are in a deficit as it is in silver, so how can 300 million ounces be taken from production, denied to industrial consumers and returned to the lenders? Mr. Beaty, unintentionally to be sure, confirms the fraud of forward selling/leasing of silver unless he can provide a credible explanation of how the 300 million ounces can returned to the lenders.


    Mr. Beaty really misses the point when he describes the bullion banks (a cute term for the dealer wolf pack) of having to sell short to hedge this 300 million ounce forward sale. The 300 million ounce forward sale is a pure short sale as it is. How is an additional short sale a hedge for an existing short sale? It isn’t. The only way to hedge a short sale is with a purchase, not another short sale. In this case Beaty's own words prove there’s a manipulation. And even if the wolf pack can come up with some confusing and intentionally misleading justification why they all go short and cover at the same time, that's not hedging. That's still manipulation. The only question is why is he defending the dealer wolf pack over silver investors and his own shareholders.


    Second, Mr. Beaty claims there is 500 million ounces in identifiable world silver bullion inventories. I say 150 million ounces. He says you can "touch and feel" this silver. That's preposterous. Beaty should know that identifiable means you can point it out and verify it to anyone who asks. Just because one service, GFMS, says it exists doesn't qualify it as identifiable. COMEX silver is identifiable and no one questions that. The stuff that GFMS says exists in European dealer inventories (some 300 million ounces), everyone questions. This is a simple matter to resolve. All Beaty, has to provide is backup to his statement. If he does, I'll admit he's correct. Just none of this "GFMS says it's there" nonsense. I've raised this point before publicly with Beaty and he never answers. Maybe he will this time.


    Finally, Beaty plays fast and loose with my writing. Pan American has more cash than ever in it's history, some $100 million. I never said they should buy silver at $8, I said to withhold one quarters' production, to fight back against the manipulative shorts, and not just sit there and take the price punishment willingly. This would only require roughly 10% of their cash. The 10% wouldn't disappear, it would be held in silver. He talks of his company's $1 billion market cap, strangely ignoring the 40%, or $400 million beating that shareholders have just experienced at the hands of the dealer wolf pack's bashing of silver. Mr. Beaty, your company's market cap is now $600 million, not $1 billion, courtesy of the dealer crooks. Why are you defending them?


    Don't misunderstand me, I'm not knocking Pan American. I'm questioning Ross Beaty's representation of the facts and the message he's sending out on silver. He seems to think that investors have bulled the stock because of earnings. That's nonsense. Pan American hasn't reported an annual profit in its ten year existence. (Hopefully, quarterly earnings will be positive, when reported May 11.) The reason it hasn't reported a profit is because silver prices have been depressed. The stock market performance of Pan American mirrors the stock market performance of all silver companies, no better or worse. Investors have bought these silver companies, producers and non-producers alike, because of an expected rise in the price of silver. Silver is a commodity and Pan American is a commodity producer. Its fortunes are tied to the price of the commodity it produces. It is not a high-tech company with a proprietary product. If silver goes up, or investors expect silver to go up, Pan American and all other silver companies should go up. If the price of the commodity it produces is artificially depressed, it's CEO should be screaming his head off. Why isn't he?


    This is the great mystery for me. Especially considering that Beaty allows for the strong possibility that gold is manipulated, but he insists silver is not. Someone should tell him that it is the same dealers who manipulate both. You know, I wasn't always attacked by Pan American. In fact, they requested, and I agreed, that they print a quote from one of my articles for the inside cover of their annual report in 1999. No compensation was offered, none asked for, and none received. I was glad to have them spread the silver message. This recent attack on me has come in a moment of anger by Mr. Beaty.


    However, I'm sure all would agree that the Chairman's letter to shareholders in an annual report would qualify as a sober and careful message. With that in mind, here is what Ross Beaty had to say in his annual letter to his shareholders, dated March 10, 2001,


    "I admit to being perplexed by today's low silver prices. They defy the current solid fundamentals of silver demand and supply. Silver demand in 2000 was strong, especially in the photographic and industrial sectors. Silver supply from mines and scrap sources was constrained. More than 1.5 billion ounces of silver inventories have been consumed since 1990, and the deficit for 2000 is estimated at more than 100 million ounces. Silver investment demand has declined markedly, however, and speculative short selling has increased."


    Aside from sounding like one of my articles when it comes to the fundamentals, he can't explain the conundrum of low prices in a commodity deficit. No one can. And he admits to being perplexed about it. That's because he is thinking in free market terms. There is no free market explanation possible to the question of low prices in a commodity deficit. There’s only a manipulative explanation. Which I have provided continuously. Beaty is not providing a legitimate alternative explanation, he is just rejecting the obvious explanation, because he's plain old stubborn. He has made his mind up that manipulation can't possibly exist (probably because he doesn’t like me or my criticism of him when he was president of the Silver Institute), and has closed himself to even considering it. His shareholders and silver investors are much worse off because of his recalcitrance.


    I made my suggestion about the miners withholding production, or buying silver, precisely because the miners had sold so much stock and had raised so much money from the public, that this was the first time they could do it. Up until this past year, they would not have been able to do it, as they didn't have the funds. They are stronger now and can do it. But, the truth be told, it's not just about them withholding production. It's about trying to do something constructive, anything to break the hold of the manipulation and the dealers wolf pack. It's about fighting back against the manipulators. But mine management just doesn't seem to have the guts to speak up. Unfortunately, I was very correct in the past, when I wrote articles entitled, "The Silver Producers Are The Problem" They still are.


    But all is not lost. This reaction from Ross Beaty could serve as a lightening rod for the fight against the silver manipulation. By allowing his animosity towards me to cloud his judgment, he insults those who have studied the issue closely and have attempted to do something about it, by dismissing it out of hand. He overlooks the 3400 investors who have signed the silver petition to Eliot Spitzer and the many hundreds who have written to the CFTC.


    This movement to ending the silver manipulation is coming from the bottom up. It is not coming from the top down. Because leadership from the regulators, exchange and industry has done nothing but obstruct the fight against the manipulation, there will be great embarrassment, loss of reputation, and liability (civil and criminal) when this thing is finally exposed. Mr. Beaty has picked the exact time of the worst sell off, in decades, to aid and abet the enemies of silver investors and shareholders.


    There is no way that anything will change if the producers and resource companies continue to behave as they have, namely, looking the other way while the wolf pack manipulates the market. All the articles in the world by me won't change a thing. I can point out, in the clearest terms possible, just how this silver scam works. I can complain, over and over, to every official I can think of. But that, obviously, hasn't been enough to end this scam.


    The only thing that can possibly alter mine management behavior is action by the real owners of the companies, the shareholders. Let's face it - I've been doing the dirty work and heavy lifting to expose and terminate the silver manipulation. The miners should be thanking me. Instead, Beaty attacks me, although he doesn't have a clue as to explaining silver’s price behavior. This is baffling.


    Whether you believe management is doing the right thing, or the wrong thing, in their approach to this manipulation issue, you must communicate your feelings to them as owners. You own these companies and they will be influenced by your opinion. But only if you make it known, and make it known now. We all know the regulators, exchange officials and silver company management have failed to lift a finger to end this silver manipulation. They have fought every attempt to end it. That's wrong and something shareholders should not stand for. Let mine management know where you stand on this issue today.


    -- Posted 13 May, 2004



    [B][COLOR=darkblue][SIZE=16]

  • Ex WO Board

    Welcome,allerseits!


    Bis auf ein paar technische Geschichten die nur mässig laufen,(html-Verlinkung) ist das hier,
    vorallem vom Niveau her, eine feine Sache!
    Werde mal versuchen Mystifikator hier noch an Bord zu holen.....


    Gruß Wz

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Monetary Policy And Gold
    Heinrich Leopold
    The recent correction in the commodity markets has raised an essential question: Is the current cycle for commodities at its end or will the trend go on for some time ?


    To answer this question it is important to understand the major drivers for investments. In my previous articles the main conclusion has been that monetary aggregates - as shown in the next graphs - are the main drivers for economic activity. Thus, these aggregates are also the drivers for profits and higher stock prices as more money is the fuel for any economy.


    Monetary aggregates are also the main drivers for commodities and - as shown in this article - also the cause for any movements in gold.


    There has been an unprecedent increase of M3 money supply over the latest decade. This has made many analysts to believe that M3 growth will eventually lead to a higher gold price and higher inflation. Nevertheless, the following chart shows no positive correlation between M3 money supply and the gold price. In the contrary, there exists a strong inverse correlation. M3 growth leads to a lower gold price and is therefore deflationary and not inflationary. This has been once again proven by the steady rise of gold exactly when M3 growth declined (please read my previous articles).
    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/images/leopold051004a.gif]


    On the other side, there is a strong positive correlation between gold and M1 growth. M1 represents cash or cash deposits and can be therefore seen as the real indicator for more money in the economic system. M1 is a very strong leading indicator for a rise in the gold price. The peaks in M1 just happened one or two years before the peak in the gold price, which in turn has been leading other commodities as well as interest rates.
    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/images/leopold051004b.gif]
    As the distinction between M1 (=cash) and M3 (=long term commitments or paper assets ) is very important to understand, it is interesting to see the interaction of M1 and M3 as a basis for a monetary policy.


    As shown in the third chart, high M3 growth is consistent with an asset bubble as it happened from 1980 to around 1992 (Reagonomics). As asset bubbles slow down economic activity, the US Central Bank had to step in and print more cash (=M1) in order to compensate for slower M3 money supply. Over the eighties and beginning nineties the US FED has done so by increasing M1 supply substantially. This process represents the monetizing of the previous asset bubble, which Central Banks do not like to do as this is followed by a period of high inflation and slow growth.


    As it can be seen in the last chart in 1994 a new asset bubble started to emerge and the US FED could slow down printing cash. So, basically the FED has been extremely restrictive during the nineties. There is no way to blame the US for printing cash in the nineties. The high growth of M3 kept the US economy going - virtually inflation free. Nevertheless, the asset bubble started to deflate in 2001 and the FED had to step in and increase M1 money supply once again. This is the major reason for the latest move of gold and also for other commodities.


    The chart reveals also other interesting details. In 2004 interest rates are nearly in the same constellation as in 1994. So, many analyst expect an immediate interest rate hike just like it has been in 1994. Nevertheless, the monetary environment today is completely different than in 1994. In 1994 we have been basically at the beginning of a new asset bubble and at the end of an huge monetizing period. Today, the latest asset bubble has barely started to deflate and we are still at the beginning of the monetization period of this asset bubble. Despite many press comments about higher short interests, it is very unlikely that we see a sustained rise of FED Funds over the next years. Higher long term interest rates triggered by inflation fears will even further depress M3 monetary growth. This will for sure slow down the US economy and force the FED to open the monetization gap (difference between M1 and M3 growth) even further. Higher M1 growth will very likely lead to much higher gold and commodity prices over the course of the year after the current correction is completed.
    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/images/leopold051004c.gif]
    It is now very interesting to see the further monetary picture to develop. As it takes usually very long for an asset bubble to deflate (Japan !!), it is likely that the current environment for low FED Funds persists much longer as many observers can think of. Should the FED raise interest rates anyway, the situation would become actually much worse as then long term interests rise higher and depress M3 growth even more. The following economic slowdown would then require a much higher monetary easing in the next years.


    I look forward to receiving your comments.


    Regards


    Heinrich Leopold
    hgleopold@yahoo.com


    Certain statements included herein may constitute "forward-looking statements" with the meaning of certain securities legislative measures. Such forward-looking statements involve known and un