bognair
(Anmerkung: Such grade krampfhaft,finde aber nix...)
Hattest recht ,das mit dem USD 90 wird nix! 
Freu,freu
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.tfc-charts2.w2d.com/charts/US64.GIF]
Beiträge von wasserzeichen
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Hast Du zufällig derzeit irgendeine Mine/Explorer zur Hand,die sowohl charttechnisch als auch fundamental in nächster Zeit nach Frontalausbruch aussieht?
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Gold: It Takes Capital, Sweat, Know-how, Risk and Luck
By Richard Russell, Printer Friendly Version
For The Gold Report
April, 2004. .. I just read an interview in Smart Money magazine with fabled pioneer international investor, Sir John Templeton. Here is some of the conversation —
R. Russell — Do you think there is a real estate bubble in the U.S.?
Sir John Templeton — Yes. Real estate is very different from the stock market because it’s so local and separate in terms of type. But in many locations and many types of real estate, prices are dangerously high right now. And in real estate it’s easier to say what’s dangerously high. You must look at what it costs to rebuild. Right here in the Bahamas, I have recently seen people pay four or five times for a house in terms of what it would cost to rebuilt.
R. Russell — Where do you think the U.S. dollar will go from here?
Sir John Templeton — The chances of the U.S. dollar going down in relation to the euro are no more than 50/50. The euro has already gone up 47 percent in the last two years. But the yen is up only 25 percent. Japan has put hundreds of billions of dollars into buying American money. The quantities are so great that can’t continue much longer. Japanese money is likely to go up in the future.
R. Russell — What do you see as the biggest threat to economic recovery in the U.S.?
Sir John Templeton — We don’t need an economic recovery because we’re already operating at a very high level. The greatest threat to maintaining the level of economic activity is debt. There’s never been a time when people worldwide, and especially in America, had such a high proportion of debt. I think 20 percent of people who have mortgages on their homes are likely to lose them in foreclosures. When a home goes bankrupt, it’s sold at auction. That pushes the price down and affects the prices of other homes.
R. Russell — Does the U.S. government’s debt level worry you?
Sir John Templeton — Oh yes. There has never been any government anywhere in the world that has such a big deficit in the federal budget, and there has never been a nation in history that has such an adverse balance of trade. However, if you look at these debts and balance of trade as a percentage of gross national produce, they’re bad, but not unprecedented.
R. Russell — What does that mean for investors?
Sir John Templeton — It’s one more reason why this is a dangerous time to own stocks.
Russell comment — There it is, comments from perhaps the greatest international investor of all time.
Interesting, Russell, but what’s new? You want something new, here it is. Gold is now (finally) moving up against all the main currencies. You want proof? I include below charts of the gold in terms of the euro and the second chart is gold in terms of the yen.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/GoldReport/russell1chart.gif]
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/GoldReport/russell2chart.gif]What does it mean? It means that if you’re a European or if you’re Japanese or Asian, gold is an appreciating asset. And slowly, very slowly, the idea may be dawning in your tired brain that gold (true intrinsic money) is worth a damn sight more than the paper your central bank is grinding out at will. Let me put it this way — it takes a mere decision from a central bank to create billion dollars more of paper. But it takes capital, sweat, know-how, risk and often pure luck to produce anything like a billion dollars worth of gold.
Gold has been treated as money for 5,000 years. Gold is the first metal mentioned in the Bible. On August 15, 1971, President Nixon closed the U.S.’s gold window, which meant that the U.S. would no longer honor its commitment to transfer its gold to its foreign central bank creditors. From that point on, the world was on a paper-money system. The world, from that point on, would operate on the basis of an ever-increasing ocean of irredeemable paper.
(3/30/04)
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Visit Streetwise-The GOLD Report - http://www.theaureport.com – a unique, free site featuring summaries of articles from major publications, specific recommendations from top worldwide analysts and portfolio managers covering gold stocks, and a directory, with samples, of precious metals newsletters.
To subscribe, please complete our online form, or send an email with the word 'Subscribe' in the subject field to subscriptions@theaureport.com.
Streetwise - The GOLD Report is Copyright © 2004 by Streetwise Inc. All rights are
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@Thai
Das mit GoSa als (auf einmal!!) nennen wir's mal "Minenpusher"-man möge mir verzeihen-
kann natürlich auch einen anderen Grund haben:Evtl. wollen die Die Leute jetzt mit aller Gewalt davon abhalten,physisches Material einzusammeln und ihr Geld lieber in zigverschiedene Producer und Explorer zu stecken,was dann für eine Art Verwässerungseffekt sorgt....nach dem Motto:
"Wenn wir's schon nicht schaffen,die Leute von einem Goldinvestabzuhalten,dann müssen wir wenigstens dafür sorgen,das die alle im Papiergold-Segment bleiben"Naja,ist jetzt vielleicht alles ein bisschen zu weit hergeholt,oder?
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" The unemployment rate —- measured through a different survey of households - inched up to 5.7 percent from 5.6 percent in February"
Ja wie denn nu?
Nächste Woche ,wenn die Banken ihre Aktien abverkauft haben,kommt dann die "Korrektur" der heutigen Zahlen und dann gehts ab!
(Würd mich nicht wundern,wenn der S+P heut noch ins minus läuft....)Deine schönen "Keicharts" sagen doch schon wieder Alles!
Schönes Wochenende....
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Hat mal jemand die detaillierten Arbeitsmarktdaten da?Im kitco-Forum schreibt einer das die neuen jobs komplett im Dienstleistungsbereich entstanden sein sollen!Wenn das stimmt,dann is scho vorbei mit "positiv"!
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IS SILVER BEING MANIPULATED?
By Doug Hornig Printer Friendly Version
from Casey Research, LLC.
March 26, 2004http://www.internationalspeculator.com
Ted Butler is a man on a mission, and since that mission concerns an anomaly in a market that is of interest to many of our readers, we decided to investigate.
Butler is an independent commodities analyst with thirty years’ experience. For the past two decades, his particular focus has been the market in silver. He believes there is something very fishy, and perhaps illegal, going on.
We caught up with Ted at his office at Butler Research and asked him to explain the situation as he sees it. “It’s complicated,” he says. “But simply put, a huge anomaly has developed over at least the past fifteen years in the short market in silver.”
Our investment-oriented readers will probably understand short selling as it pertains to the stock market, where it is used to profit from a security’s declining share price. To conduct such a transaction, you arrange for your broker to borrow shares of stock from someone who actually owns them, then you sell them to someone else. You pocket the proceeds. Later, after the stock’s price drops to your satisfaction, you “buy back” the security, and the difference between your original sell price and the current buy price represents your profit.
With commodities, Butler says, the rules are different. Long and short contracts, of which there is always an equal amount, are written whenever someone feels like it. There does not have to be any underlying physical stock to back them up. They represent the mechanism by which actual metal changes hands, but this is in only a tiny percentage of cases. With the vast majority of contracts, only the paper is traded, with the participants making or losing money depending on the rise and fall in commodity price.
What this is supposed to do is help stabilize prices and, with most metals, it’s working as it should. Not so with silver.
“Silver has been operating at a structural deficit for fifteen years,” Butler says, “meaning that every year we consume more than is produced, thereby drawing down existing stocks. When that happens, it’s incredibly bullish, isn’t it? Demand exceeds supply, the price goes up. That’s the way capitalism works. Yet silver hasn’t moved.”
True. After a brief spike in 1987, silver has remained locked in a very tight trading range between $4 and $7. Most years, in fact, it never made it past $5.
Butler contends that the primary reason for this counterintuitive situation is the gigantic short position in silver. “It’s grown to absurd proportions,” he says. “What you have is an open interest in silver that far exceeds the supply of the underlying item. This has never happened with any other commodity. It’s off the charts.”
We asked him how far off the charts, and whether he could back up his allegations. “Sure,” he says. “I get my information from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a Congressional committee charged with oversight of this market. While the CFTC, due to antiquated commodities laws, is forbidden from identifying particular traders, they do put out a quarterly Commitments of Traders (COT) report. And the January COT report is very revealing. While there may be thousands of investors with long positions, the short sellers are few in number, and they have huge positions. We’re talking about less than 20 major players. In fact, according to the COT, a mere eight traders have a net short position of 325 million ounces of silver. That’s eight times annual US production and more than twice the 125 million ounces of known reserves! In other words, if these people were called upon to deliver the metal their contracts represent, they couldn’t possibly do it. It’s fraud. A derivatives market must, by definition, be derived from something, and this one isn’t.”
Butler doesn’t know who’s doing this short selling, but he’s read the annual reports of all the major U.S. and Canadian producers, and he knows they’re not forward selling production. Instead, he thinks it’s a handful of large bullion banks. He mentions AIG, HSBC and others.
“They’ve been manipulating the market for years,” he says, “taking paper profits from small, downward movements in the silver price. But they’re so caught up in the game, they don’t realize they’ve been manipulating the actual price of silver, too. Commodities law specifies that producers/consumers should set price, but the derivatives market is now so much bigger than the physical market that it is doing the job.”
That’s why Butler has been bombarding the CFTC and NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) with letters demanding an investigation. Recently, he’s been joined by an independent group of 3,000 small investors who petitioned Eliot Spitzer, New York’s attorney general, to look into the matter. So far, official response has been tepid.
“Gobbledygook,” Butler says, “that’s what they send me. ‘We find no evidence of manipulation,’ etc. They just don’t want to admit it’s happening. ‘Not on our watch,’ you know what I mean? But it’s going to catch up to them. Stock has been drawn down too much. Last year, there was an 87-million ounce deficit, which is typical. In the near future, supply to meet the actual physical demand won’t be there.”
And what will happen then? “Well, the longs could demand their silver, and the short sellers would have to default, because they can’t get it. Or, if they didn’t want to go to jail, they could buy back their contracts at an inflated price. These are big companies, and they can stand billion dollar losses. Though they don’t want to, of course. No matter what, the price of silver goes up. Either there is massive short covering, or the market reverts to being driven by real, physical supply and demand.”
We noted that silver has definitely been in an uptrend, from $4.50 an ounce last July to a closing around $7.70 as of this writing, and suggested that perhaps the supply deficit was finally being recognized.
Butler concurs. “No one can predict what will happen,” he says, “or when. There could even be a temporary price decline, if the shorts can pull it off. They’ve been raking in billions by doing just that. But eventually the inventory will be gone, and people will demand delivery from stock that’s no longer there. When that happens, the price is really going to spike.”------------------------
Doug Hornig is a regular contributor to Doug Casey’s weekly e-letter, “What We Now Know.” For your free subscription, click here
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Geiler Tag heute!Glückwunsch an den Spielgewinner,hätt ich selber nicht gedacht das heut schon die 8 lacht!
Gruß Wz
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@Thai
Jau,hoffe ich auch!Aber so wie ich die Presse kenne,fangen die das jubilieren erst bei 15-20Dollar die Unze an!
Schönes Wochenende nach Thailand!
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The Silver Lining
Sol Palha
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
--Mahatma GandhiSilver in Argentinean Pesos
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…/images/tacinv032704a.gif]
Botswana Pula
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…/images/tacinv032704b.gif]
British Pound
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…/images/tacinv032704d.gif]
Cayman Island Dollar
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…/images/tacinv032704e.gif]
Costa Rica Colon
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…/images/tacinv032704f.gif]
Czech Koruna
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…/images/tacinv032704h.gif]
Danish Krone
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…/images/tacinv032704h.gif]
Iceland Krona
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…/images/tacinv032704i.gif]
Latvian Lat
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…/images/tacinv032704j.gif]
Lesotho Loti
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…/images/tacinv032704k.gif]
Mozambique Metical
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…/images/tacinv032704m.gif]
Swiss Franc
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…/images/tacinv032704n.gif]
Zambian Kwacha
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…/images/tacinv032704o.gif]
ConclusionI will leave it to my esteemed colleagues to put up some of very thought provoking numbers that will back what the charts are showing above. Unlike Gold, which is still not doing much in multiple currencies, Silver is breaking through all of them, indicating that it is in a true bull market. Its ironical that the poor mans gold is yielding better results than the rich mans gold. Now if that's not contrarian I don't know what is? It looks like being a contrarian in every aspect of your life can be highly rewarding. Silver is going to be the truly wild card play and that is why since the middle of 2003 we became extremely bullish on this Metal and stated that it would out perform Gold. At that point in time we had no Idea that it would blast Gold into the dust so badly. Silver is currently the number one sector and has been so for the last 6 weeks and counting. The super trend has been set in motion and unlike Gold; Silver has reared its head in all almost all the major currencies. This is what is defined as true raging bull and any major pull backs should be seen as a gift from heaven to buy even more of this incredibly useful metal.
We will soon look at the final two other metals, Palladium and Platinum. As always take time to enjoy the Good things in life, for money cannot buy happiness it can only help you find new ways to extend your happiness. So make sure you know how to smile and enjoy the things that have no cost whatsoever attached to them.
A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle.
--Erin Majors© 2004 Sol Palha
http://www.tacticalinvestor.com
EmailAlan Lunt
Contributor
Tactical InvestorWell!!! What can I say? This is truly a bull market in silver. I had recently done the silver stocks to currency ratios and come to a similar conclusion to Sol. However what interests me more is that it looks like silver may have taken gold's place as a reserve currency. While the Central Banks and the Bullion Banks have been busy busting gold, silver has slowly but surely stolen the march. My gains in gold , up until the past two weeks, were negative in New Zealand dollar terms. But silver has been like a sleeping monolith, quietly stalking then overtaking all currencies. As much as the charts indicate real power up, I do suspect that the opposition is watching it carefully. Whether we get a short squeeze coming into the next contracts delivery I'm not sure. It will depend on the demand for delivery. Remember the shorts have access to huge pools of money, and it is that fiat money they will be trying to guard. They just cannot allow their brand of money to loose the battle to a "commodity". Be ready to man the trenches, the battle is on.
Alan Lunt
© 2004 Alan Lunt
http://www.tacticalinvestor.com -
Interessanter Aspekt aus "Super-Bull" Beitrag von Mr. Puplava :
The other wild card is the derivative position of money center banks both in gold, currencies, and in interest rate swaps and contracts. The current derivative book of money center banks has mushroomed to $67 trillion as of the end of the third quarter of last year.
The gold derivative position of money center banks is currently $85 billion--a figure that hangs over a much smaller physical market. Nobody knows for sure which way these contracts swing. It doesn’t matter whether they are long or short, if prices spike up or down in the opposite direction. When you are this leveraged there can be a major problem. If rates rise or the price of gold goes parabolic like silver has done recently, then “Houston we have a problem.”
This could become a major wild card that could send the price of bullion and bullion shares soaring if or when it erupts. The problem is when you are this leveraged, you are always unprepared for the unexpected. History shows us that the fat tails of the bell shaped curve recently have been reoccurring with greater frequency. It is the fat tails and not the belly of the curve that we should be concerned about.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/Puplava/24March/derivatives2.gif] -
@THAI
Danke für den Tip mit Atlas....Hab mich seither wegen Münzen und Optionsscheinlastigkeit nicht so um die Minen gekümmert,denke aber über eine kleine Position nach.Vielleicht geht zu 0,20
nochmal was....[Blockierte Grafik: http://chart.yahoo.com/c/1y/a/almi.ob.gif]
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bitte selber löschen. gruss bognair
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Das mit dem Dollarhedging war seither eine gute Sache,aber mit dem heutigen Tag bricht evtl.
ein neues Zeitalter in der Edelmetall-Hausse an!Alle Währungen fallen im Vergleich zum Gold u. Silber! -
@Thai
Guter Gedanke!Daran hab ich auch schon gedacht!Vielleicht hat das PPT dewegen zum Handelsschluss grade noch die 10300 im DJI retten können?.....wird spannend morgen!
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Schätze mal,die lassen bei der "Long-Short-Bilanz" einfach die Positionen der Commercials weg,dann mag das wohl hinkommen....
Wenn's einen innerlich nicht doch irgendwie nerven würde,könnte man sich über die seit Monaten
stur im gleichen Tenor gehaltenen "Analysen" bzw. Zeitungsschmierereien ,richtig freuen!Ich seh das wie wohl alle hier:
Solange solche Artikel veröffentlicht werden,gibt es kein besseres Investment als Silber!
Ich denk aber schon,das die Crimex u.Dunstkreis ,bei ca. 7,50 rum noch eine letzte deftige
Shortattacke starten werden.Ob das dann für Zukaufkurse um 6Taler herum reichen wird,muss man sehen,von mir aus.... -
Kleine Silberanalyse aus dem Hause Hugo:
Silver Leading the Way
Daan Joubert for HugoCapital.com and http://www.GOLDSIGNALS.com
Back in early May last year, I did an essay entitled "Will silver lead the way?". I discussed the large Comex open position in silver and speculated that silver would be leading gold in the strong and sustained bull market to come. The reasoning was based on the disparity between the size of the position and the amount of annual production and the fact that demand has exceeded supply for more than a decade.The essay reads ... "This means that if the silver price should show a sustained increase, there will be no slack in production that can be used to cover the short position. Should the shorts be squeezed, the price would skyrocket." It also referred to Ted Butler of http://www.butlerresearch.com and his view that a tenfold jump in the silver price is quite possible. At the time when the essay was written, silver was trading around $4.70, which implies a silver price of as much as $50/oz. Even from today's price of $7.20/oz a move to that level would still be a seven-fold increase.
A good return on what surely has to be a near certainty, unless something very strange happens. Even if the price only makes it halfway to the $50 level.
In May a year ago, gold was trading at $342. It had just started a recover again after the February sell-off when the price was bashed down from near $390 down to below $320. Silver also suffered in February, falling from over $4.90 to $4.41. However, its decline of just over 10% was proportionately much less than the 17% fall in the gold price. The gold recovery, from a deeper over-sold position, was doing better than silver and it was a bit of a "stick neck out" to express the view that silver would really lead the way higher.
Subsequent to that essay, events favoured gold as the leader. At first gold slipped a little, moving back to $340 by mid-July, but then there was a well-sustained rising trend that took the gold price to over $425 early in January.
Between May and July 2003 silver at first fell back to $4.48 -- then it too started a rising trend. However, the trend was very choppy; while the general move was higher, there were severe corrections or pull-backs that must have created much nervous tension for the silver bulls of the time. Despite this disorderly advance, silver managed to gain 20% by mid November from its post-May low, compared to the 25% improvement in the gold price over much the same period.
When gold reached $425 early this year, many expected it to rise and test resistance around the $440 level; at that time few people would have bet on silver as the real leader of the two metals. Nor was it expected to catch attention with a steep and near-explosive rise in the price. This good move in gold also brought me to consider a new essay to say that the first one on silver in May last year had been proven incorrect.
Yet it did not take long for the gold price to come under pressure and finally nose-dive to below $400 late in February. Since then it has failed to make a definitive break back into $400 territory. However, during this time when gold peaked and fell back below $400, the price of silver left the $5.20 level of November last year way behind, to gain almost 40% and reach its new highs of last week around $7.20. With these developments it turns out that silver has now finally grabbed the initiative and is leading the charge out of the tight stranglehold in which these two metals have been constrained for the past decade. Gold is sure to follow once silver has ignited wider interest in the precious metals.
As increasing global tensions and growing distrust in the US economic recovery cause more investors to start thinking seriously about the safe havens of last resort - precious metals, gold and silver - "real" money.
So much for the "Gold is dead" slogans since the 90's. So much for the demonetisation of gold -- and by implication silver as well.
Two questions
As always in the markets the two questions to which investors would most like accurate answers are, "When?" and "How far?"
Let us see what kind of answer can in fact be obtained from technical analysis. There is a widespread belief that TA cannot work for gold or silver because these markets are being manipulated to a degree that makes analysis inaccurate, even invalid. This view may well be correct for some approaches to technical analysis, but pattern analysis by Chart Symmetry has had remarkably powerful results.
Chart patterns have their origin in the complexity of markets. Research has shown that large adaptive systems - called complex systems - display emergent symmetry. Some features of the system repeat. A market is a large adaptive system and just like so many other complex systems, is based on a few simple rules. Underlying the complexity of markets is the decision process of buying and selling by a large number of market partcipants and their perceptions and expectations.
People who manipulate the market are a part of this complex system; they too have to decide when to buy or when to sell, even if their purpose is manipulation; their decisions are made in the light of what is happening in the market, their interpretation of this and what they anticipate to happen in the future - just like any other market player. They focus strongly on certain levels that they intend to defend, but so do other market players who have decided on stop loss or profit- taking levels.
Extensive and massive manipulation can steer or influence the market. Just as a large new buyer who enters a market has an effect on price behaviour, with no intention of manipulation. It simply happens that way. However, the manipulation is part of the complex system and the system adjusts to it -- and in the process, patterns develop differently from what they would have done were there no manipulation. But patterns still develop.
The heavily manipulated gold market of the past few years still develops and displays well-known patterns such as channels and triangles and megaphones, on small and large scales. Without manipulation, the patterns would have been very different, but there are patterns -- and they can be used to help us find answers to "When?" and "How far?"
How far?
Long term spot silver charts have some answers. Parallel lines genrazated from patterns indicate where the price could find significant resistance.
The monthly chart of the silver price below, does not show the very high price spike in 1980, when the Hunt brothers took on the global silver market. That spike went to over $39 on the monthly close, before the Hunts were finally squeezed for margin and had to capitulate.
This reduced scale chart shows two sets of parallel lines. In both cases a single line was generated as the master line. Lines marked M and M1, and the other lines of the set were drawn as parallels to these master lines. The values next to the lines are what the lines will be at the end of March.
The silver price is already over $7.00. Presuming that the price will not fall back to the end of February level to return below resistance - now becoming support - at $6.70 or $6.62, we should experience a significant break higher at the end of March. That should open up prospects for a fairly rapid move up to $8.65, say by the end of May.
After that there is resistance at $10.72 and at $13.15, both at month- end values.
Of course this is the top side of this analysis, because the parallels to lines M and M1 can be extended to the top of the 1980 spike. That would deliver two much higher values for the tops of the respective channels. For M1, defining the steep bear channel, the top of the channel system lies at $31/oz. For the set defined by line M, which has a slight rising trend, the top of the shallow bull channel lies at $41.
It would therefore appear that the silver price has a very good chance to increase to about $13/oz, at least, even though this might take quite a long time. This analysis focuses on price levels, not the time frame to reach them.
Beyond that, there is some indication that the price could reach as high as $30-40/oz and still remain in long- term channel patterns.
When?
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/images/joubert031704.gif]
A bear squeeze price jump may be indicated on a break of a key acceleration level. Have a look at the daily silver chart below.The master line is indicated as line M, with line P parallel to M. The gradient of channel A-B is derived from the gradient of line M, in terms of the principles of Chart Symmetry. This channel has held steady to contain the rising trend in silver since the low at $4.83 early in October last year. In principle, the price can reach any price level as long as it remains within this channel - without a price squeeze. That would be a scenario of merely an extension of a trend that has been constant for the past 6 months.
Evidence of a developing bear squeeze has to be in the form a break higher from channel A-B, to reveal an acceleration in the rate of increase in the price. Line A has a value equal to $7.47 for Monday, 15th
March, and it increases in value at close to 2 cents/day, or 10 cents per week.
In other words, the price of silver has to exceed $7.57 on March 22nd and exceed $7.67 on March 29th to signal the commencement of a bear squeeze. Anything below these levels and other intermediate values that can be calculated pro rata, would merely be the result of the ruling trend in channel A-B.
It should be noted that the analysis also provides for key support levels if the ruling trend is to remain intact. Line B has a value of $6.60 on Monday, 15th March. It increases at 2 cents/day or 10 cents/week, which implies the price of silver should not fall below $6.70 by March 22nd or below $6.80 by March 29th, and so on. If this should happen, the channel will be penetrated to the lower side and silver would either turn bearish or extend the bull trend at a shallower gradient that that of channel A-B.
Conclusion
This essay provides some values on which to base decisions related to the When? and How far? of what seems to be a probable coming bear squeeze in silver. The answer to the When? question is answered by using a well-defined and quite accurate 6 month bull channel. This is a chart formation that has developed and is holding intact so far, despite the intervention.
So far, silver is leading the way. Of course, Gold could explode first, dragging silver along and triggering the bear squeeze, but for now, the play is to buy silver.
15 March 2004
© March 2004 Daan Joubert
All rights reserved to author, http://www.GOLDSignals.com and http://www.HugoCapital.com -
Mal sehen ob das noch was wird mit dem Schlusskurs über 7,15 beim Silber...
Hier noch was einfaches aus der Themenecke "Handelssignale" :[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/images/schmidt031204c.gif]
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Ich denke,jetzt kommt die Zeit in der die EZB vergeblich versuchen wird,den Euro durch alle wichtigen supports zu jagen.Man sieht ja,zuwas das beim Yen geführt hat,nämlich blos zu einer Zeitverzögerung des Dollarverfalls!Fundamental wird die Katastrophe dadurch nurnoch grösser,denn die Taler-Devisenreserven der EZB (die eh schon viel zu hoch sind) werden dadurch noch grösser-sackt an Gold u.vor allem Silber ein,was ihr finden könnt!
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@Thai
Momentan gibt es weder Zertis noch OS auf Rhodium.Was aber auf jeden Fall jemand machen sollte,ist eine Anfragebei ABN-Amro!(ich nicht,dennen bin ich glaub schon genug auf die Nerven gegangen...)Die melden sich recht schnell und scheinen die Spezialwünsche der Kunden auch halbwegs ernst zu nehmen.
vielleicht liegt es aber auch nur an der Marktenge bei Rhodium....
Rhodiumminen bzw. Aktiengesellsch. hab ich gestern versucht zu finden,war aber leider zwecklos....mal abgesehen von einem Querverweis auf Stillwater,die ja im Palladiumgeschäft gut dabei sind,ob aber eine Rhodiumpreisexplosion sich positiv auf Stillwater auswirkt ist mehr als fragwürdig..Hoffe geholfen zu haben....