Beiträge von Ulfur

Vorstellung eines kanadischen Kupferexplorers ( soll keine Empfehlung darstellen)

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.corrienteresources.de/public/data/div/logo1.gif]

Corriente Resources

Entwickelt den sog. Corriente Kupfer Gürtel in Ecuador. Arbeitet mit BHB Billiton zusammen, von denen die Gebiete stammen, da sie für BHB nicht groß, bzw reichhaltig genug sind.

Die drei Hauptprojekte sind:

Mirador 200 Mill t Erzressourcen mit 0,73% Kupfer und 0,25% Gold
San Carlos 200 Mill t mit 0,85% Ku
Panantza 150 Mill t mit 0,82% Ku und 0,1% Gold

zusammen etwa 560 Mio t inferred resources mit 0,81% Kupfer

Das fortgeschrittenste Projekt ist Mirador. Es gab eine erste Scoping Studie auf der Grundlage eines Abbaus von 50.000 t pro Tag. Vermutlich waren die Kapitalkosten zu hoch, so daß 2003 eine zweite Studie auf der Grundlage von 20.000 t/Tag erarbeitet wurde. Als Vorteile des geringeren Zuschnitts wurde genannt: geringe ökologische Auswirkungen, höhere Minenlebensdauer, geringeres Transportvolumen zum Hafen und mehr potientielle Partner für ein Projekt mit deutlich geringeren Kapitalkosten.

Dieses kleinere Projekt umfaßt nur den nördlichen Teil von Mirador mit 94 Mill t bei 0,78% Ku und 0,22% Go, Minenlebensdauer 13 Jahre. Vordurchführbarkeitsstudie wurde begonnen und vor dem Abschluß gleich die bankfähige Durchführbarkeitsstudie veranlaßt. Das Ergebnis war für Juli 2004 geplant, so daß jederzeit die Resultate zu erwarten sind(kann natürlich auch wider Erwarten negativ ausfallen).

Gesonderte Ergebnisse der Vormachbarkeitsstudie sind mir nicht bekannt, nach der Scoping Studie hat das Projekt einen Barwert von 222 Mill US-Dollar bei einem Kupferpreis von 0,90 $/lb. ( Eine Veränderung des Kupferpreises um 10 Cent scheint den Barwert um ca. 69 Mill. USD zu verändern. )

Einnahmen aus Mirador sollen helfen, die restlichen Vorkommen weiter zu entwickeln.

Bei ca 49Mio Aktien (verwässert) und einem Kurs von 3,50 Can-$ beträgt die Marktkapitalisierung ca 130 Millionen US-Dollar.

Nach der Scoping Studie wären Kapitalkosten von 145 Mio USD nötig, Angeblich sollen 2/3 durch Kredit und 1/3 durch Eigenkapital aufgebracht werden.

Die Bilanz sieht ordentlich aus, keine Schulden.

Verkürzt ( 31.03.04) in Can-Dollar

Liquide Mittel 21,3 Mio

Explorationsgrundstücke 18,3 Mio

Sonstiges xx
Summe Assets 40,0 Mio

Verbindlichkeiten 0,4 Mio
Aktionärskapital 39,6 Mio
Summe Schulden und Eigenkapital 40,0 Mio
Verlust im Quartal 370.000.

Englische Webseite: http://www.corriente.com

Die deutsche Promotion wird von Axino durchgeführt, es gibt eine deutsche Seite:
http://www.corriente-resources.de.
Hier ist der Promotionbericht von börsextra lesenswert:
pdf – Datei ca 500 kb.
http://www.corrienteresources.…ta/documents/BX200104.pdf

Auflage US-Adler wird Dir hier geholfen:

http://www.usmint.gov/mint_pro…fm?action=sales&year=2004

Wir wollen nicht vergessen, daß im Prinzip in Deutschland alles ärger ist:

Mittwoch 4. August 2004, 18:49 Uhr

Post-Pensionen kosten Bund 574 Milliarden Euro bis 2090

München (AP) Für die Pensionen ehemaliger Postbeamte und ihrer Hinterbliebenen muss der Bund offenbar bis 2090 insgesamt 574 Milliarden Euro aufwenden. Dies geht aus der Antwort des Bundesfinanzministeriums an eine FDP-Anfrage hervor, von der die «Süddeutsche Zeitung» in ihrer Donnerstagausgabe berichtet. Auf den heutigen Tag heruntergerechnet müsste der Staat demnach eine Summe von 150 Milliarden Euro aufwenden. Mit den erwarteten Zinsen könne man in den nächsten 85 Jahren sämtliche Pensionen bezahlen, schreibt das Blatt.

In der Rechnung enthalten sind demnach auch rund 18 Milliarden Euro, die durch den Verkauf von von Aktion der Post-Unternehmen zu erzielen sind.
http://de.news.yahoo.com/040804/12/45ex1.html

Also, wenn die Pensionen abgezinst werden und der Erlös durch die noch in staatlicher Hand befindlichen Aktien gegengerechnet wird , belaufen sich die Schulden auf 150 Mrd. Euro.

Volksvermögen wurde privatisiert, Gewinne streichen sich die Aktionäre von Post/Telekom ein, der Steuerzahler hat für die Kosten aufzukommen.

Der Kursanstieg nach der Rückgabe der Mindorolizenz ist leider wieder vollständig abgebaut worden, der Kurs ist von über 8 norwegische Kronen (NOK) auf 6 NOK zurückgegangen.

Gleichwohl hat sich die Aktie seit Jahresanfang im Vergleich zu anderen Gold-/Silberaktien gut gehalten, eine der wenigen Aktien, die im Plus sind. In der Halbjahresübersicht von mineweb konnte Crew einen 5. Platz erreichen (zur Zeit auf Rang 6 von über 80 Gold-/Silberminen).

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/cm_pics/sections/1327-3112-0-0_188007.gif]

Entwicklungen:

- Die Durchführbarkeitsstudie für das Seqiprojekt ist positiv verlaufen und der Partner Minelco hat grünes Licht für den Bau der Mine gegeben, die im 2. Halbjahr 2005 in Betrieb gehen soll.

-Crew hat sich in vielen Ländern ein Magnesiumverfahren patentieren lassen, wodurch sich das bisher als Abfallprodukt anfallende Magnesium beim acid leaching von Nickellateriten gewonnen werden kann. Crew hofft damit die Profitabilität von Mindoro zu steigern und will das Patent auch an Dritte lizensieren. Wie Crew zu diesem Verfahren gekommen ist, ist mir unbekannt.

Heute trifft das zweite Schiff ein, um ca. 35.000 t Erz von Nalunaq zur Goldgewinnung nach Spanien zu schippern. Reichlich spät, ich habe leisen Zweifel, ob das Produktionsziel von 120.000 Unzen in diesem Jahr erreicht werden kann. Das Management will allerdings die Arbeiten vorantreiben, um die Pläne einzuhalten.

Das Bild zeigt die MV Federal Franklin, anscheinend vor Grönland, auf der Anfahrt zur Nalunaq-Goldmine

Aus faz.net:
Rohstoffe
Ölpreis und Ölaktien korrelieren deutlich
http://www.faz.net/s/Rub3B5979…Tpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html

Die These vertritt auch Jochen Steffens von investorverlag.de, daß die strategischen Ölreserven zur Ölpreissenkung für die Präsidentenwahl genutzt werden sollen.

Dann müsste aber bald begonnen werden, da ansonsten durch die jetzt hohen Ölpreise neg. Auswirkungen auf die amerikanischen Wirtschaft zu befürchten sind. Schlechte Wirtschaftsdaten befährden die Wiederwahl Bush´.

Jochen Steffens 29.06.04:
Aber sie kennen meine Theorie zur wahlkamptaktischen Beeinflussung des Ölpreises. Und bereits jetzt hat die US-Regierung die Käufe zum Aufbau der strategischen Ölreserven nahezu eingestellt. Auch die Vorverlegung der Machtübergabe an den Irakkrieg hat den Ölpreis weiter sinken lassen. Offenbar startet das Projekt "billiges Öl" bereits etwas früher ...

Die Ölindustrie in Amerika steht eher hinter Bush und hofft sicherlich auf einen Wahlsieg der jetzigen US-Regierung. Und ich schätze, dass auch die US-Ölindustrie im August den Ölpreis weiter nach unten "bewegen" wird. Denn die Förderquoten der Opec sind auf Anschlag, wenn die Ölnachfrage in den USA nun plötzlich drastisch sinken würde, käme es zu einer Ölschwemme, die sofort den Ölpreis weiter in die Knie drücken würde. Es wäre eine recht "preiswerte" Wahlkampfhilfe – einfach nichts zu kaufen.

Nach neuesten Untersuchungen, werden viele Amerikaner ihre Wahlentscheidung von der Wirtschaftslage abhängig machen – dabei zählt, wie sich die Wirtschaft in den letzten drei Monaten vor der Wahl verhält.
...
Wenn ich US-Präsident wäre und die amerikanische Ölindustrie hinter mir hätte, ich wüsste was ich in den USA vor der Wahl machen würde ... Die Ölpreise nach unten treiben, was würden Sie tun?
...
Das sind, wie gesagt, alles Thesen und ich warte auf weitere Anzeichen, die diese Thesen untermauern.

Noch ein Artikel aus der FTD:

ftd.de, Di, 3.8.2004, 8:24, aktualisiert: Di, 3.8.2004, 18:53
Dax & Stoxx-Schlussbericht: Anleger blenden steigenden Ölpreis aus
Von Joachim Dreykluft und Meike Schreiber, Frankfurt

Trotz hohem Ölpreis und Terrorwarnungen haben sich Europas Börsen im Plus gehalten. Händler klagten jedoch über die sommerlich niedrigen Umsätze.
...
Angesichts jüngster Terrorwarnungen und dem immer weiter steigenden Ölpreis hielten sich die Aktienmärkte vergleichsweise stabil. Im Handel herrschte bei niedrigen Umsätzen jedoch sommerliche Lethargie. "Man hat den Eindruck, es ist Börse und keiner geht hin", sagte ein Händler. Stefan Müller von Sal Oppenheim sagte: "Die Märkte sind abgestumpft. Der Ölpreis steigt und steigt und an der Börse interessiert es keinen".

Händler warnt vor bösem Erwachen

Sein Kollege Oliver Opgen-Rhein von HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt sagte mit Blick auf die Entwicklung des Rohstoffpreises: "Das könnte noch mal ein böses Erwachen geben für die Industrie". Im Moment sei der Markt jedoch "emotionslos" und auch "charttechnisch im luftleeren Raum". Bereits seit Anfang des Jahres dümpelt der Markt seitwärts; Börsianer sind jedoch ratlos, welcher Impuls die Indizes aus ihrer Handelsspanne reißen könnte, sei es nach oben oder nach unten.

Der hohe Ölpreis half allenfalls Aktien von Ölunternehmen weiter auf die Sprünge. Mit einem Plus von 2,6 Prozent waren Shell die stärksten Aktien im Stoxx 50; British Petroleum legten 1,7 Prozent zu und Total verteuerten sich um 1,8 Prozent.
http://www.ftd.de/bm/ma/1091258303733.html?nv=hpm

Hier noch mal die OPEC-Aussage nach der Financial Times Deutschland:

Aus der FTD vom 4.8.2004
Ölmarkt: Opec-Aussagen treiben Preise stetig in die Höhe
Von Tobias Bayer, New York

Die Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (Opec) hat die Ölpreishausse weiter angefacht. Ihr Präsident räumte eine gewisse Ohnmacht des Kartells ein.

In New York kletterte der Preis für ein Barrel Rohöl der US-Ölsorte West Texas Intermediate (WTI) zur Lieferung im September zwischenzeitlich auf 44,24 $ pro Barrel (ein Barrel entspricht 159 Liter). Das ist der höchste Stand seit Einführung der Terminkontrakte im Jahr 1983. Im Tagesverlauf fielen die Notierungen jedoch wieder zurück. Gegen 20 Uhr MESZ lag WTI-Rohöl um 33 Cent über Vortagesniveau bei 44,15 $. In London notierte Nordseeöl der Sorte Brent zur Lieferung im September 68 Cent höher bei 40,65 $ pro Barrel.

Opec-Präsident Purnomo Yusgiantoro hatte am Dienstag in Jakarta eine gewisse Ohnmacht des Kartells angesichts der Preisentwicklung eingeräumt. "Wenn die Preise weiter im Aufwind sind, was kann die Opec schon tun?", sagte Purnomo. Dies verdeutlicht, dass die Opec nur noch wenig freie Kapazitäten hat, um Förderausfälle in Russland, Venezuela oder Nigeria kompensieren zu können. Saudi-Arabiens Ölminister Ali al-Naimi hatte schon am Montag zu verstehen gegeben, dass eine weitere Fördererhöhung Zeit brauche.

Das Beratungshaus Wood Mackenzie schätzt, dass die Opec noch Spielraum für eine Produktionsausweitung um weitere 800.000 Barrel pro Tag hat. Saudi-Arabien fördert zur Zeit 9,5 Millionen Barrel täglich. Experten betonten, Purnomos Offenheit habe den Markt beeindruckt. Zwar sei bekannt gewesen, dass die Opec nicht mehr viele Möglichkeiten habe-. "Dass sie das so unverblümt zugibt, ist allerdings neu", sagte John Kilduff vom Brokerhaus Fimat.

Ich vermute, Ölaktien steigen nicht mit dem Ölpreis, da die meisten Anleger davon ausgehen, daß der Preisanstieg nur vorübergehend sein wird. Eine dauerhafte Verbesserung der Gewinne der Ölfirmen wird nicht erwartet und nicht eingepreist.

Ein paar Sätze aus Jim Puplava: Storm Clouds, Crises and Opportunities in Energy vom 02.02.04:

Still Wrong After Three Years

This is most evident in the field of energy where the fortunetellers have been forecasting lower energy prices for the last three years. As long as I can remember Wall Street analysts have been constantly predicting lower energy prices: lower oil and lower natural gas prices. This year is no different. The Street is still predicting $20-$24 oil. As of today, the price of crude oil is not at $20, but $34.74 a barrel. Natural gas is selling at $5.55 a cubic foot and not $3 a foot contrary to renewed forecasts for lower prices.

The energy markets are a mispriced market dominated by rumors, myths, and false perceptions that persist to this day. Despite the myriad reports and constant influx of data, the analysts and economists still keep getting it wrong. If their forecasts have missed the mark on energy prices they have been equally off the mark on energy profits. This is surprising given the higher prices for oil and natural gas these last three years. The energy sector last year accounted for nearly 60% of the profits in the S&P 500. That trend looks like it will continue as companies ranging from Exxon Mobil, ChevronTexaco and ConocoPhillips to Kerr-McGee reported record profits. In the case of Exxon Mobil, Q4 profits surged 63%. For all of 2003 Exxon Mobil’s profits were a staggering $21.5 billion, the most reported by any U.S. company since 1998. Exxon Mobil’s stock is down this year and is up only 23% over the last 52 weeks. The energy sector which has delivered the bulk of profits within the S&P 500 has enjoyed very little of the gains of last year's stellar market. Energy remains underowned, unloved and misunderstood by most analysts and investors.

The Opportunities in Energy

On the brighter side of things the rising costs of energy will mean it will become more profitable to invest in the energy sector in the years ahead and indeed throughout this decade. Energy companies and companies operating within the energy sector remain one of the market's best kept secrets. The entire sector remains largely ignored by Wall Street and the investment public. Recently Wall Street firms have been busy downgrading the sector predicting lower oil prices and lower stock prices. One analyst thought the sector had gotten ahead of itself. As shown in the table below many of today’s international oil companies and natural gas producers sell at below market multiples, pay above market dividends and remain grossly underowned and undervalued.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/archive/2004/0202.html

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/wilday/wilday080304/6.gif]

We all are aware of oil's upward charge. Oil is now poised to hit 45.50 to 46 before softening a bit. I'm going to stick my nose out as say that we will see 58 by next year based on long term price movements. Time will tell!
Aus:
Follow Up to the Cliffhanger
Ryan Wilday
Aug 3, 2004

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/wilday/wilday080304.html

58 $ im nächsten Jahr? [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseiten-forum.de/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif]

Vermutlich hat der plötzliche Goldpreisanstieg etwas mit der Meldung über die schlechter als erwarteten Verbraucherausgaben im Juni zu tun.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://images.bloomberg.com/nav/bblogo.gif]

U.S. June Consumer Spending Falls 0.7%; Incomes Up

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Spending by U.S. consumers fell in June for the first time in nine months as auto sales declined and income growth slowed, the government reported.

Expenditures on goods and services dropped 0.7 percent during the month after rising 1 percent in May ,the Commerce Department said in Washington. Incomes rose 0.2 percent after rising 0.6 percent. The decline in spending was the first since September 2003 and the largest since September 2001.

The numbers suggest that gasoline prices in excess of $2 a gallon, 30-year mortgage rates higher than 6 percent and the end of tax refunds held down spending. The number of jobs added in June fell to less than half the increase in May, which held back income growth. A rebound in hiring is likely to push up incomes and spending for the rest of 2004, economists said.

``The economy hit a pothole in June,'' said Brian Wesbury, chief economist at Griffin, Kubik, Stephens & Thompson in Chicago. ``The question is whether the economy will rebound. I believe it will, and I don't believe this is the beginning of a major slowdown.''

The larger-than-expected drop in spending pushed up the price of Treasury securities. The 4 3/4 percent note maturing in 2014 gained 1/32, pulling the yield down 1 basis point to 4.44 percent as of 8:33 p.m. in New York. The yield had risen to 4.48 percent earlier in the day.

Incomes

The gain in incomes in June was the smallest since September, when they fell. The government said manufacturing payrolls were unchanged after increasing $5.1 billion in May. Payrolls in services industries fell $3.2 billion after increasing $27.3 billion. All wages and salaries fell $2.7 billion after rising $35 billion.

Economists expected spending to fall 0.1 percent, according to the median of 63 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. They had also expected a 0.3 percent increase in incomes after a 0.6 percent rise.

Inflation Index

The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of inflation tied to the report, increased 0.2 percent in June after rising 0.4 percent in May.

The index increased 2.5 percent from June 2003 after rising the same from May to May. Prices excluding food and energy prices, a less-volatile gauge tracked by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other policy makers, rose 0.1 percent from May to June this year and were up 1.5 percent from June 2003, a sign that inflation has tamed.

Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, rose 0.2 percent after rising 0.5 percent. Wages and salaries were unchanged after rising 0.6 percent.

The personal savings rate was 2 percent in June, compared with 1.2 percent in May. The indicator weighs current income from wages, salaries, businesses and government payments against spending. It doesn't account for borrowed money, income from investments, or withdrawals from prior savings.

Adjusted for the increase in prices, spending fell 0.9 percent in June after rising 0.6 percent in May.

Spending on durable goods such as autos, furniture, and other long-lasting items fell 5.8 percent, adjusted for inflation, after rising 3.7 percent.

Autos

.....

July Rebound

A rebound may have occurred in July. J.C. Penney Co., the largest owner of department stores in the U.S. after Sears, Roebuck, & Co., reported yesterday that sales increased last month, helping drive up profits. Sales in July were 8.1 percent higher than a year earlier at stores open at least a year, the Dallas-based company reported.

Federal reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee on July 20 that the surge in energy prices may not hold.

``Those higher prices, by eroding households' disposable income, have accounted for at least some of the observed softness in consumer spending of late, a softness which should prove short- lived,'' Greenspan said.

The economy is expected to grow 4.5 percent this year, the fastest rate since 1999, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg from June 25 to July 6.

Rising Crude Oil

Still, prices of crude oil rose to a record last week on concern that supplies would be inadequate in the face of rising demand.

``There's been a dramatic withdrawal of cash from consumers over the past few months'' because of high energy prices, William Zadrozny, president and chief executive officer of Siemens Financial Services, the Iselin, New Jersey, lending unit of Siemens AG, said in an interview Friday. ``If oil prices get under control, we're going to see a very optimistic outlook going into 2005.''

Economists said more people need to have jobs for consumer spending to improve. July payrolls may have risen to 241,000 from 112,00 in June, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Labor Department reports Friday on payrolls.
Improved Confidence

The prospect of a rebound in job growth has buoyed consumer optimism, which economists said may herald increased spending. U.S. consumer sentiment improved for a second straight month in July, a survey by the University of Michigan found.

``Confidence surveys suggest that the slowdown in consumer spending may prove temporary,'' Bill Dudley, chief U.S. economist at Goldman, Sachs in New York, said.

A Bloomberg survey of economists showed that U.S auto sales probably rebounded in July, as General Motors and Ford Motor Co. offered discounts to clear dealer lots before new models are introduced. Vehicles probably sold at an annual rate of 16.8 million vehicles, according to the median forecast.

....
http://quote.bloomberg.com/app…b9Dty2g&refer=news_index#

Für Freitag werden also die neu geschaffenen Stellen mit 241.000 erwartet. Ist wieder eine Überraschung drin?

Wk III dürfte der dritte Weltkrieg sein.

Ja, ja die Abkürzungen. Nicht immer unmißverständlich.

Wenn btrend vom POS schreibt, lese ich zuerst auch immer Piece of Shit.
(POS haben auch die Merill Lynch Analysten in internen Emails ihre öffentlich empfohlenen Aktien genannt)

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.citywire.co.uk/images/cwfpbw.gif]

14:59 Mon 2 Aug 2004
US Special: is America's cup half full or half empty?

.....

American foreign policy, however, is unlikely to decide the election by itself. The other key issue is the economy. Here the immediate future is clearer: the economy is recovering relatively strongly and will continue to do well this year. Gross domestic product growth was a healthy 4.4% in the first quarter. Forecasters suggest full-year growth for 2004 will come in at a similar level. Corporate profits have risen strongly. Historically low interest rates and massive tax cuts finally did the trick.

The jobs market has roared into life too after a seemingly interminable delay. No less than 1.4 million jobs have been created since non-farm payrolls hit their low in August 2003. Some 947,000 of the increase occurred in March, April and May alone. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5.6% from 6.4% in the summer last year. Wages have begun to tick up.

The figures suggest the US economy is in a reasonable state. ‘We’ve seen employment growth pick up,’ says Gus Faucher, a senior economist at Economy.com. ‘It was the last piece of the puzzle. Assuming it continues to do so, I would agree the US economy is in relatively good shape.’ Sharon Stark, a strategist for Legg Mason Wood Walker, concurs. ‘The US economy does seem to be doing okay. The boost from tax cuts and accommodative Fed policy has been supportive. There has been an encouraging increase in corporate profits. Hopefully business investment will pick up too.’

Yet, despite impressive official figures and the soothing words of economists, recent polls show Americans are gloomier about the economy. How to square their depressed sentiment with the data? One answer is to take a long rather than short view. It shows more jobs have been lost than created since Bush came to power in 2000, despite the recent burst of hiring. Altogether America has lost 1.2 million jobs since that date. The figure is higher if government jobs are excluded.

Republican analysts expect voters’ mood to improve over the rest of the year as more people feel the effects of the healthier economy. The Democrats, on the other hand, concentrate on Bush’s long-term record since he came to office. Last month, for instance, Kerry argued the US economy was ‘not working for the average American’, adding: ‘You put in a week’s work, you ought to be able to take care of your family, you ought to be able to pay your bills.’ In reality, the economy is neither as bad as Democrats would contend nor as good as Bush and his team would argue – another reason to expect a close race for the top job at the White House.

Sadly, neither candidate spends enough time on some of America’s longer-term economic issues, beyond unconvincing soundbites promising to make things better. One problem, for instance, stems from American’s relatively high personal debt levels. They could slow the economy since interest rates are going up. ‘Traditionally people cut down debt levels in a recession, but that didn’t happen last time around,’ Faucher explains. ‘So as rates go up, the lower and middle classes could cut back spending – the lower and middle classes are the ones likely to be most affected. They haven’t repaired balance sheets, rates are going up and tax cuts have run their course.’

Other major concerns include the US’ twin $500 billion (£276 billion) trade and budget deficits, the question as to just how the country can afford to pay for the impending retirement of the baby boomer generation and rapidly spiralling healthcare costs. Over time, resolving all these problems could well lead to slower economic growth. But instead of worrying about how it can afford the future it wants, America leverages to grab all it can now. It is hardly surprising that neither Bush nor Kerry want to engage in a thorough discussion of this thorny problem.

Nor, it seems, is Wall Street overly concerned. Last year’s strong rally has taken stock valuations to levels that look a little pricey. The S&P 500 index, for instance, sits on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 22, compared with a long-term average of 15.5. Since prices have been largely flat this year – the S&P 500 is up around 2% in dollar terms – investors seem comfortable with the overall economic situation. Upbeat investment professionals say the pause in the ‘price’ part of the price-to-earnings ratio actually makes the case for backing the stockmarket more compelling, since the economy is strong with corporate profits growing, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the year.

Not everyone shares that view however. Take Gordon Grender, manager of the GAM North American Growth fund, who holds a AAA-rating for his top fund management skills. Grender says: ‘The factors that seem to be of most concern to investors at present are the outlook for employment and the oil price. The trends for both are reasonably favourable. The oil price has fallen significantly from its recent high while the economy has continued to add jobs, although we have concerns that investors are becoming too optimistic about recent figures showing strong payroll growth.

'While the headline unemployment rate is 5.6%, the all-inclusive unemployment rate of 9.7% compares with a rate of 10.1% a year ago – a good, but not great, improvement. We remain cautious about the outlook for US stocks in general, owing to what seem to us to be high valuation levels but, as always, we continue to seek reasonably priced investment opportunities.’

Meanwhile Jonathan Asante, the chief economist at Framlington and manager of its International Growth fund, also strikes a note of a caution. He says: ‘We believe that the stockmarket still underestimates the extent of interest rate rises. Our view for some time is that short rates should be around 3% at this stage in the cycle, yet consensus expectations are for just 2.4% by the end of the year and 3.3% by the middle of 2005. Based on our views rising US bond yields will pose a threat to equity indices and will have a particularly negative impact on riskier assets.’

The stockmarket is another issue both Republicans and Democrats say will work in their favour come the election. Again, they can do so because of the contrast between short- and longer-term performance. The S&P 500, for instance, rose 26.4% last year and almost double that from its low point in March 2003. This is good news for supporters of the Grand Old Party. Yet the index’s annual average performance since Bush took office is a fall of around 2%, according to research by US firm Northern Trust Investments. That plays into the Democrat’s hands. Massive numbers of Americans have some of their wealth tied up in the stockmarket. How will its performance affect their thinking at the ballot box? Hard to say – like Iraq and the economy, it’s just too close to call.

* This article first appeared in the July edition of Citywire Funds Insider magazine.
http://www.citywire.co.uk/part…t.asp?section=0&vid=67069

Die tatsächliche Arbeitslosigkeit liegt trotz aller Flexibilität, Deregulierung und kaum vorhandenem Sozialnetz fast bei 10%. Kein erfolgreiches Vorbild. Die bei uns gemeldete 10-11% Arbeitslosigkeit ist allerdings auch nur "Headline" Arbeitslosigkeit. Am Freitag wird´s wieder spannend, wenn die neuesten Headline Unemployment Ziffern gemeldet werden.

Der Begriff "headline" erinnert mich an die headline earnings von Droopy, die, wenn man sich das Zahlenwerk genauer anschaute, sich in Verluste verwandelten.

South Africa could lose top gold ranking
By Barry FitzGerald
Garimpeiro
August 2, 2004

The Springboks' defeat by the Wallabies made the South African miners who stayed on after the Diggers & Dealers bash wish they had not come.

There was a big roll-up of South Africans at last week's Diggers & Dealers bash. They came in numbers to mix the business of the bash with the pleasure of getting to Subiaco Oval for the Tri-Nations Test between the Wallabies and the Springboks on Saturday night.

But at the end of it all, they were wishing they had stayed home. Unlike the Australian mining sector, which is pumped, the South African sector is struggling to come to grips with the surge in the value of the rand. The Springboks' loss to the Wallabies just added to the misery, particularly as the winning try for Australia was scored by a former South African, Clyde Rathbone.

Rugby is not the only thing the South Africans could be losing. There is a real chance Australia could grab its ranking as the world's biggest gold producer. The word from the mournful South African brigade at the Diggers & Dealers bash was that the unthinkable might actually happen.

According to figures from Melbourne-based consultants Surbiton Associates, Australia overtook the US as the world's second-largest gold producer in 2003. At the bash, Surbiton's Sandra Close told Garimpeiro there was now a "fair chance" that the Aussies might knock off the South Africans within the next few years.

You might be asking whether it matters, given that South African companies such as AngloGold and Gold Fields own a big chunk of the Australian industry as a result of a string of takeovers and acquisitions in recent years. It does matter for a number of very good reasons.

Gold is plugged in to the China boom as much as any other metal, so any squeeze on new mine supplies has to have a price impact. But more important would be the effect of sliding South African production on the country's economic and social framework.

Despite the upbeat mood in the Australian gold sector, more exploration is essential, as many new projects are simply recycled old mines.Gold production is a huge employer in South Africa, where the mines are deep and based on labor-intensive mining of narrow reefs. Throw tens of thousands of skilled miners out of work and it won't be long before things get nasty. That's why the world's central banks got together a few years back and signed the Washington accord at the urging of black US senators.

The accord set out a controlled program for the sale of gold by the central banks. Such sales can be a major downer for the gold price because of the huge amount of gold that remains in central bank vaults around the world.

The accord was struck when gold was testing $US250 an ounce and there were fears that if it fell further, the South African economy would be greatly weakened, creating huge social dislocation with implications for the entire African continent.

That the accord worked is reflected in the fact that gold hasn't looked back since.

The same cannot be said for the South African gold sector. Gold production has been trending down since the heady days of 1970 when production peaked at 1000 tonnes. Last year's output was 376 tonnes, from 395 tonnes in 2002.

Close said the the strong rand, a function of South Africa's relatively high interest rates, was causing real grief among the higher-cost South African producers and putting pressure on companies such as Harmony to close some of their operations. In contrast, the near to medium-term outlook in Australia is much brighter. As highlighted at Diggers & Dealers, Australia has large projects such as Telfer and Boddington as well as a number of smaller projects in the pipeline.

Always one to deliver a punch to both sides of politics, Close said that despite the upbeat mood in the Australian gold sector, the industry was still living on borrowed time and more exploration was essential. Many new projects are simply recycled old mines, and new greenfields discoveries have been few and far between.

She said it was hard to imagine South Africa losing the top spot, held for a century, but in the gold industry nothing can be taken for granted.

Close is the Australian industry's resident expert on gold production. She tracked the boom in local output from the meagre 18 tonnes a year of the early '80s through to the 300 tonnes-plus levels of recent years.

Close has put it all down in a useful tome, The Great Gold Renaissance. The Untold Story of The Modern Australian Gold Boom. It was selling well at Diggers & Dealers, which is no surprise given some entrepreneurial promotion. Gold coloured ads for the book were posted just about everywhere in Kalgoorlie, including in the Gents at the Palace Hotel, as well as at the Exchange Hotel across the road.
http://www.theage.com.au/artic…73750.html?oneclick=true#

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Oil May Set New Highs Next Week on Supply Concern (Update1)

July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Oil may rise to a record next week, passing today's high, on concern producers don't have the spare capacity to meet global demand in the event of a cut in Russian shipments, a Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts showed.

Thirty-five of 53 survey respondents, or 66 percent, predicted the rally in New York crude oil futures will continue next week, the highest bullish percentage in the three months the survey has been conducted. Twelve respondents expected prices to fall and six said they'll be little changed.

Oil futures rose to $43.09 a barrel today, the highest price since the contract began trading in 1983. Prices reached a then- record $43.05 on Wednesday after OAO Yukos Oil Co., Russia's biggest oil exporter, said its shipments may be disrupted by a dispute with the government over tax payments.

``It looks like the crosshairs are zeroing in on $45,'' said Chuck Hackett, a broker and analyst at Access Futures & Options Trading in Woodlake, California. ``Name any oil-producing country and you can associate it with a particular problem that's contributing to higher prices.''

Crude oil for September delivery traded at $43.05 a barrel at 12:18 p.m. Singapore time. All futures have risen 40 percent in the past year.

Cash Crunch

Yukos may halt rail shipments because it couldn't get access to money to pay OAO Russian Railways beyond next week, Chief Executive Steven Theede said earlier this week. Russia's Justice Ministry recalled orders it had sent Yukos production units banning them from selling property while it seeks to collect a $3.4 billion tax bill, Yukos said yesterday. Yukos can also use cash in its accounts to pay suppliers, the Justice Ministry said.

``Fears of supply disruptions, especially the situation involving Yukos, will continue to drive the market,'' said Jason Schenker, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``There have consistently been concerns about supply this year. Now it's Yukos, which produces as much oil as the entire country of Libya.''

Russia has been the world's biggest oil producer so far this year, followed by Saudi Arabia, according to data from the International Energy Agency in Paris.

A week ago, 52 percent of poll respondents predicted rising prices. Crude oil for August delivery rose 2.5 percent to $42.75 on the New York Mercantile Exchange for the week through yesterday.

Norway, Nigeria

In addition to the potential loss of Yukos oil, prices have been bolstered by sabotage of pipelines in Iraq earlier this year and concern that escalating attacks in Saudi Arabia may lead to a disruption in shipments from the world's largest oil-exporting country. An election in Venezuela next month may threaten shipments from the fourth-biggest source of U.S. oil imports.

A weeklong strike by Norwegian oil workers in June forced producers to cut output by more than 10 percent. Norway is the world's third-largest exporter.

Strikes and sabotage have repeatedly disrupted shipments from Nigeria, Africa's largest producer and the fifth-biggest supplier of U.S. oil imports. Nigerian output has been rising and was the highest in at least six years in June, according to Bloomberg data.

Saudi Arabia has led a rise in output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which boosted official production quotas on July 1 and will do so again on Aug. 1. The extra OPEC production has made more oil available for U.S. refiners and helped boost inventories that were at a 28-year low in January.

Inventories

U.S. crude-oil inventories rose 1.2 million barrels to 300.5 million last week, the Energy Department said Wednesday. Imports jumped 14 percent to a record 11.3 million barrels a day. The U.S. consumes about a quarter of the world's oil.

Some analysts said that last week's inventory rise may lead to a decline in prices.

``The crude oil market is carrying both a hefty 42 percent price premium to a year ago and an 8.3 percent year-on-year Energy Department stock surplus,'' said Tim Evans, senior energy analyst for IFR Markets in New York.

Economic growth in Asia, the U.S. and Europe has spurred record demand for petroleum products. Consumption will rise by 2.49 million barrels a day this year, the International Energy Agency said earlier this month. The Paris-based adviser to 26 industrialized countries was founded in 1974 to represent the interests of oil-consuming nations.

Demand

``We had record imports last week and stocks only rose by about a million barrels,'' said Carl Larry, an associate director of energy futures at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. ``That's not a good omen,'' he said, because it suggests demand is surging.

The U.S. last year consumed 20.1 million barrels a day of crude oil, according to BP Plc's Annual Statistical Review of World Energy.

``We're still seeing a lot of energy demand out of China and the U.S. is quite strong too,'' said Ashok Sekar, head of client services at Tricom Futures Services Pty in Queensland, Australia. ``I don't see the market going much below $40.50 or maybe $39.50'' while this demand persists, he said.

U.S. gasoline demand jumped 5.3 percent to 9.3 million barrels a day last week, according to the Energy Department. About 10 percent of the world's oil is used to make gasoline for U.S. consumers.

Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. touched a record $2.064 a gallon in May. The U.S. average was $1.905 as of Monday, according to government data.

Refiners haven't kept up with growing demand for gasoline and other fuels in the U.S. No new refinery has been built in the U.S. since the 1970s. Refineries operated at 97 percent of capacity last week, the highest rate since May 2003.

``Any way you slice it, there are plenty of reasons for oil to move higher,'' Barclays' Larry said ``Demand is high, Iraqi production is down, we're unsure about Russian supplies and Venezuela is close to what should be an exciting election.''

Auch Gold Fields erwägt wegen des starken Rands Produktionseinschränkungen

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Gold Fields may close shafts

By: Gareth Tredway
Posted: '29-JUL-04 17:14' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Gold Fields, the world’s fourth-largest gold producer, said Thursday that if the rand gold price continues to hold at below R80,000/kg, then a new strategy will have to be adopted. A strategy that could involve the closure of loss-making shafts, and retrenchments.

“Twenty-five percent of South African production is at risk,” said Mike Prinsloo, head of the South African operations, at the company’s quarterly results announcement. Using the June quarter’s gold production, that is 175,000 ounces.

Prinsloo says a statutory Section 189 notice has already been despatched at all three South African mines, marking the start of a 60-day review process, after which the company may start cutting jobs.

The areas most at risk, according to Prinsloo, are Beatrix, 2 and 4 shafts, Driefontein’s west section, Kloof’s 8 shaft, and the company’s various waste treatment projects. He says these operations are already losing R8 million to R10 million a month.

Already 2,000 jobs have been relinquished in the last nine months, with 800 going in the June quarter alone. In the previous quarter, gold averaged R83,731/kg. In July, it has averaged 6.5 percent lower, at R78,304/kg.

Weiter...

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Ölpreis steigt auf Rekordstände

28. Juli 2004 Die Entwicklung des Ölpreises gibt am Mittwoch wieder einmal zu reden. Denn er ist unter anderem auf Grund der Zunahme der Rohölimporte in Amerika bei gleichzeitigem Rückgang der Lagerbestände an Rohöl und Benzin auf neue Rekordstände gestiegen.

Ein Barrel der Nordseesorte Brent zur Lieferung im September verteuerte sich in London an der International Petroleum Exchange um 2,62 Prozent auf 39,55 Dollar. In der Spitze stieg es bis auf 39,60 Dollar. Marktteilnehmer sehen in den am Mittwoch veröffentlichten Daten der amerikanischen Energieagentur EIA die Ursache für den kräftigen Preisanstieg. Der Ölpreis kletterte daraufhin an der Nymex sogar auf ein Allzeithoch von 43,05 Dollar je Barrel West Texas Intermediate Oil.

Steigende Importe - geringe Lagerbestände in Amerika

Der Import von Rohöl nach Amerika erreichte in der vergangenen Woche mit 11,3 Millionen Barrel täglich einen neuen Rekordstand, wie die EIA mitteilte. Dabei nahmen die Einfuhren um mehr als 1,2 Millionen Barrel täglich zu, wobei große Mengen aus Nigeria, Kanada und Mexiko importiert wurden. Nach Daten des American Petroleum Institute (API) verringerten sich die Lagerbestände an Rohöl in der Woche zum 23. Juli um 3,1 auf 298,7 Millionen Barrel. Die Bestände an Benzin schrumpften sogar um 3,3 auf 209,3 Millionen Barrel.

Das ist allerdings längst nicht alles. Denn im Laufe des Tages hatte die chinesische Regierung mitgeteilt, der Ölbedarf des Landes werde im laufenden Jahr im Vergleich mit dem vergangenen Jahr um zwölf Prozent auf 285 Millionen Tonnen zunehmen. In der ersten Hälfte legte die Nachfrage um satte 37 Prozent zu. Das hängt einerseits mit dem starken Wachstum des Landes zusammen. Gleichzeitig wird ein Teil der Bevölkerung immer wohlhabender. Aus diesem Grund steigt nicht nur der Bedarf von Kraftwerken, sondern mit der zunehmenden Verbreitung von Autos nimmt auch die Nachfrage nach Benzin und Diesel rasant zu. Beides zusammen macht die zunehmende Nachfrage deutlich.

Mögliche Friktionen beim Angebot

Gleichzeitig dürfte zumindest spekulativ auch ein Sondereffekt eine Rolle spielen. Denn Gerichtsvollzieher haben dem angeschlagenen russischen Ölkonzern Yukos den weiteren Verkauf von Öl untersagt. Die Gerichtsvollzieher hätten Yukos angewiesen, über seine vier Fördergesellschaften kein Eigentum mehr zu veräußern, erklärte das russische Justizministerium am Mittwoch in Moskau. Yukos-Chef Steven Theede sagte, er gehe von einem Mißverständnis aus, weil ein Verkaufsstopp auch für die Gerichtsvollzieher keinen Sinn mache. Rußland fordert von Yukos Steuernachzahlungen von mehreren Milliarden Dollar.

Unklar blieb zunächst, ob Yukos wegen des Verbotes die Lieferung sofort einstellen muß oder lediglich keine neuen Lieferverträge eingehen darf. Käme der Verkauf zum Erliegen, dürfte Yukos schnell zusammenbrechen. Der Konzern fördert pro Tag 1,7 Millionen Barrel Öl und damit mehr als der Opec-Staat Libyen. Etwa 20 Prozent des russischen Erdöls wird von Yukos bereitgestellt. Rußland selbst ist nach stetigem Wachstum in den vergangenen fünf Jahren nach Saudi-Arabien der zweitgrößte Erdöl-Exporteur. Yukos-Aktien verloren nach der Nachricht bis zu 20 Prozent auf den niedrigsten Stand seit Mai des Jahres 2001, so daß der Handel der Papiere in Moskau für eine Stunde ausgesetzt wurde.

Ölpreis im Aufwärtstrend

Sollte die Erdöl-Förderung in Rußland wegen der Yukos-Krise hinter den Prognosen zurück bleiben, wird nach Einschätzung von Analysten der Druck auf die übrigen Erdöl-Produzenten zu einer höheren Förderung steigen. Die Organisation Erdöl exportierender Staaten (Opec) hatte die tägliche Fördermenge bereits auf 25,5 Millionen Barrel erhöht und damit den höchsten Stand seit 1979 erreicht.

Insgesamt wird einerseits die Dynamik in der Nachfrage nach dem „Schmiermittel der internationalen Wirtschaft“ deutlich. Auf der anderen die Friktionen, die die Steigerung des langfristig sowieso endlichen Angebots kurzfristig verhindern. Sollte der Ölpreis weiter steigen - der Trend zeigt entgegen vieler Prognosen weiterhin nach oben - wäre das schlecht für die konjunkturelle Entwicklung und damit indirekt für die Börsen. Über möglicherweise induzierte Preissteigerungen auch für die Rentenmärkte. Vor allem in jenen Ländern, die besonders stark von Ölimporten abhängig sind. Das dürfte unter anderem erklären, wieso die Wall Street am Mittwoch wieder nachgibt. Vor allem aber auch, wieso der Yen gegen den Dollar in die Defensive gerät. Denn Japan hängt stark am Öl.
http://www.faz.net/s/RubBB54EA…Tpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html

Habe gerade gesehen, daß die eingeführte Kreditkartengebühr keine aktuelle Entwicklung ist, sondern anscheinend schon in96/97 eingeführt wurde. Die Quelle gab darauf keinen Hinweis.

Der Yahoo Artikel meinte, daß mehrere Kreditkartenanbieter folgen würde, aber das ist wohl doch noch nicht gekommen.

Es ist aber ein schönes Beispiel für die Förderung des Schuldenmachens. Kunden, die regelmäßig ihre Schulden zahlen, sind weniger gern gesehen. Man verdient an den Kunden, die ihre alten Verbindlichkeiten nur auf Raten abtragen. Dabei müssen doch schon die Händler einen Teil des Umsatzes an die Kreditkartenfirmen zahlen.

Die Besitzer einer GE Rewards MasterCard haben eine Gebühr von 25$ zu zahlen, wenn sie ihre Kreditkartenschulden pünktlich zahlen.

Paying Off Your Credit Card Balance Each Month May Actually Cost You

If you are one of the 36% of all cardholders who pay off your entire balance on time each month to avoid finance charges, you may soon be penalized. For Instance GE Rewards MasterCard holders who pay off their balances each month are charged an annual $25 penalty fee. Industry analysts predict that more credit card issuers will follow GE's lead.

Why are credit card companies doing this? Because 75% of their revenues come from finance charges, and conscientious users who pay their balances in full each month are in effect using the cards for free. This can be extremely unprofitable for credit card companies.
Aus:
http://loan.yahoo.com/c/cards6.html

Das Schuldenmachen wird dadurch noch attraktiver gemacht.

pflichtmologe
Keine Berichte mehr ? Zeit abgelaufen?

Danke für das Reinstellen der LMC-Berichte

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Die großen Goldgesellschaften erweitern ihre Reserven eher durch Aufkäufe als durch eigene Goldfunde, wie dieser Bericht wieder zeigt.:

When dealing overtakes digging
Matt Chambers Bloomberg News
Monday, July 26, 2004

Newcrest, Oxiana May Be Targets as Gold Output Drops (Update2)

July 26 (Bloomberg) -- Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia's biggest gold producer, and Oxiana Ltd. may get takeover offers as gold companies worldwide combine to shore up reserves.

``We've had an increase in approaches by the investment banking community in the last few months,'' Owen Hegarty, 54, chief executive officer of Melbourne-based Oxiana, Australia's second-largest gold miner by market value, said in an interview. ``That makes me think there is more consolidation to come.''

Money spent or bid on mergers and acquisitions in the gold industry rose 70 percent to $7.3 billion this year from a year earlier, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Global spending on metals exploration slumped to a 10-year low in 2002, increasing the appeal of acquisitions as a means to expand.

Newmont Mining Corp. and Barrick Gold Corp., the world's No. 1 and No. 3 gold producers, are among potential buyers, said Gary Armor, a fund manager at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney.

``In order to keep growing they need to make acquisitions, just because they can't find enough gold in the ground,'' said Armor, who helps manage A$4 billion ($2.85 billion), including Newcrest stocks. ``I'd expect consolidation to continue.''

Acquisitions may be discussed when Newmont, Newcrest and other miners meet investors and analysts at the annual Diggers and Dealers conference in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia, starting today. The conference ends Wednesday.

Gold Production

Newcrest, which has a market value of A$4.7 billion, isn't planning any acquisitions, said Peter Reeve, general manager for corporate affairs. He declined to comment on speculation that Newcrest may receive an offer.

World gold production rose 0.5 percent in 2003 and may fall 0.3 percent this year, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics estimated in a March report. Gold for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.70 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $392.20 at 1:42 p.m. Sydney time.

Denver-based Newmont more than tripled its cash holdings to $1.3 billion in 2003. To maintain gold reserves, Newmont needs to replace production of more than 7.2 million ounces a year by exploration or acquisition, company figures show.

Toronto-based Barrick plans to spend $2 billion on four gold mines in South America and to boost production by 2 million ounces a year to 7 million by 2007. Barrick needs to replace 5.5 million ounces a year.

The company rejected a Mongolian project on July 13 because it said the deposit didn't contain enough gold.

Reserves

Newcrest, based in Melbourne, has gold reserves of 28 million ounces, the company said in May. It may double production in the next three months through its A$1.2 billion Telfer mine in Western Australia.

``Newcrest will become more takeover-prospective when Telfer starts production,'' said Misha Collins, who helps manage A$8 billion at Sydney-based BT Financial Group, including Newcrest stock.

Newcrest's Ridgeway mine in New South Wales state has the world's second-lowest production costs, according to World Gold magazine, published by the London-based World Gold Council.

Newcrest's earnings will triple next fiscal year to A$337 million, JP Morgan Chase & Co. estimated in a May 13 report.

Oxiana, valued at A$962 million, is also an attractive acquisition, AMP's Armor said. Earnings may more than triple to A$70 million next fiscal year, according to Shaun Giacomo, a Sydney-based analyst at UBS AG, Europe's biggest bank.

Stocks Soar

Still, rising stock prices may deter potential buyers. Newcrest shares have gained 79 percent in the past year and Oxiana's are up 39 percent.

A potential bidder for Newcrest could pay as much as A$26.50 a share, Melbourne-based Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty. said in a report last month. That's 86 percent above Friday's closing price and would value the company at A$8.7 billion.

``At A$26, you are starting to draw pretty significant amounts of money,'' Giacomo said. ``Newcrest looks attractive because of cash flow, which means ability to retire debt.''

Gold Fields Ltd., the world's fourth-biggest gold miner wants to buy assets that owners are willing to sell and won't bid for Newcrest, Craig Nelson, the Johannesburg-based miner's executive vice president for exploration said.

``Newcrest don't have a for-sale sign on the door so that would be an unfriendly acquisition -- it's not something Gold Fields does,'' Nelson said in an interview at the Diggers and Dealers conference. `` Hostile acquisitions tend to be value- destructive for the acquirer.''

AngloGold

The gold industry's biggest transaction this year is Johannesburg-based AngloGold Ltd.'s $1.5 billion acquisition of Ashanti Goldfields Co., in Accra, Ghana. The takeover, completed in April, made the renamed AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. the world's second-largest gold producer, overtaking Barrick.

``Bigger is ultimately going to be better,'' said John Dow, 58, managing director of Newmont's Australian unit. ``The industry is still quite fragmented and the recent AngloGold Ashanti merger is part of its consolidation.''

In May, separate bids were made for Vancouver-based Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. and Toronto-based Iamgold Corp. The two companies had planned a C$2.8 billion ($2.1 million) merger to create Canada's fourth-biggest gold producer.

As many as seven mining companies have expressed an interest in buying Iamgold, Joseph Conway, the company's chief executive said on July 14.

Vancouver-based Placer Dome Inc., the world's fifth-biggest gold producer, may attract bids after it said last month that exploration drilling may increase reserves at its 5.2 million ounce Cortez Hill deposit in Nevada.

``Newcrest and Placer Dome are the most prospective international candidates for a takeover from the likes of Newmont, Barrick or AngloGold,'' said BT Financial's Collins.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/app…xM1lWZeM&refer=australia#

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