Wird langsam ziemlich lästig, daß die Thread-Aktualisierungen nicht richtig funktionieren
Beiträge von Ulfur
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There is a current shortage of refined nickel of about 100,000t tons per annum. Despite new production expected over the next few years from Ravensthorpe, Voisey's Bay, Goro and a variety of brownfield expansions, Steve Barrett, the President of the Nickel Institute, in a recent presentation at the Nickel Conference in Perth, indicated that the production shortfall would not only continue, but actually increase, through 2010. The main drivers on the demand side being increased stainless steel capacity installed in China and Korea.
What is the nickel price outlook in these circumstances? Barring a world depression, it seems that nickel will continue to rise in price, possibly for a decade. I have a target price of US$25 per lb during the next year or two, compared with the current price of around $15 per lb.
This forecast price (or even the current price) will do wonders for the earnings of a number of small Australian nickel producers. One of these is Mincor (MCR on the ASX), which is the stock that I have chosen to highlight. Here are a few salient facts about Mincor:
Mincor details.
Issued capital - 195m shares.
Share price (30 Oct 2006) was A$1.80, hence a market capitalisation of A$350m
No debt. Cash on hand at 30 Sept 2006 was A$69m.
Enterprise value thus A$350m-A$69m cash = A$271m.
Mine life is expected to be 7 years but new discoveries seem certain to extend this.
Strong geological exploration team. Many new exploration prospects.
Some hedging (approx 30%) in place to December 2007, but minimal thereafter.
Target production is 15,000 tons nickel in concentrate per annum, (30m lbs).
Payable nickel is 65% of nickel in concentrate, i.e. about 9,750 tons (19.5m lbs).
By-product revenue (copper and cobalt) is running at about A$18m per annum.The following analysis shows the gearing related to higher nickel prices. Profit estimates are done at nickel prices of US$15 lb (current price); US$10 lb (a 33% reduction) and US$25 lb, which is my expectation for the nickel price in the next year or so:
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field110206/4.gif]
NB: These figures include corporate overheads but exclude exploration expenses and amortization/depreciation charges.
The point of this exercise is to show that these shares are discounting a return to a nickel price of US$10 per lb. There is no public enthusiasm in the MCR share price, all the blue sky is still available. MCR is not trading at a "bubble" valuation and there is spectacular upside in the stock if my US$25 lb forecast for the nickel price eventuates. In fact, MCR could earn the entire current Enterprise Value of the company in one year with nickel at US$25 per lb.
Aus:
Base Metals - A Gold Alternative?
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field110206.html -
DRDGOLD jettisons Wellesley-Wood
Drdgold wirft MWW über Bord
Allan Seccombe
Posted: Thu, 02 Nov 2006[miningmx.com] -- CONTROVERSIAL DRDGOLD CEO Mark Wellesley-Wood said his board has asked him to step down from his position once his contract expires at the end of the year.
“It was my board’s thinking more than my thinking,” [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000285.gif] Wellesley-Wood told Miningmx in an interview.
“The board decided it was the right time for the group to look at a successor,”[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000285.gif] he said. “There was no dissatisfaction expressed by the board at all.”
“My contract is up at the end of the year and the board have asked me to stay on long enough for a successor to be appointed,” he said.
DRDGOLD's JSE-traded shares were down 1.5% at R9.60 by late afternoon South African time.
South Africa’s fourth-largest gold producer had a credibility problem when the Kebble family was involved on the board and Wellesley-Wood, aged 55, has failed to change that much with the company’s emphasis on continued issuing of shares to raise cash.
“I don’t know if there is the potential to fix the credibility of DRDGOLD. If the board effectively asked him to go they clearly want to make some changes,” an analyst said.
“The issuing of shares is certainly a problem I have with the company. It is just not sustainable. That’s why I don’t like it. It would be better if they showed more effort in actually fixing the company,” the analyst said.
Wellesley-Wood, who joined the DRDGOLD board in 2000, is a qualified mining engineer and was a merchant banker before joining the company.
The turning point probably came when DRDGOLD failed in October to roll over a $66m convertible bond. It now has to raise debt of $35m and tap the company’s coffers for the balance to repay the note to the tune of $69.63m this month.
“This was probably the last straw. The proceeds from that bond were supposed to have been spent on a whole lot of projects, but it wasn’t. It was basically spent in running the company,” a second analyst said.
"Once they repay that $66m, they are going to have serious negative cash again. They're on a helluva tight wicket,"[höllisch schmalen Weg ] he said.
Wellesley-Wood has courted shareholder wrath with not only the high levels of shares issued, but the fact that the company's gold production profile has dropped by more than half since 2000, and its reserves and resources are down by nearly half in that period. He is also one of the highest earners in the local gold mining industry. [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000023.gif]
Wellesley-Wood's remuneration package doubled in the 2006 financial year to R10m from the previous year. By comparison, Bobby Godsell, head of AngloGold Ashanti took home R9.4m in wages and bonuses excluding share options in 2005. [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000023.gif]
"He's been sucking the company dry for years, getting a huge package, bonus schemes and all kinds of things. He's a very convincing guy," the second analyst said.
"They've been financing the company out of share issues, paying for operational costs out of that. How on earth could they do that?" he said.
Wellesley-Wood conceded the point on the share issue. DRDGOLD's shares in issue has ballooned by 164% since 2000 to 324 million.
"You're right. DRD has issued, sometimes, far too many shares in the past," he said.The role of the CEO of DRDGOLD had changed, with the group developing two independently managed business units in South Africa and Australia.
“It’s not the role it used to be and probably requires somebody with different vision to take the group forward to the next stage,” Wellesley-Wood said. “It’s time to look for new blood.”
http://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/370595.htm -
CLIVE ROFFEY: That wouldn’t surprise me, because the data is indicating a catapult - in other words a very strong movement - and that’s also being reflected in a lot of the shares, particularly Durban Deep which is now starting to break out of something like a 12-year trend. If that breaks that indicates we are going to see a very powerful move.
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=25362 -
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YYYEEEEEE-HAWWWWWWWWW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[Blockierte Grafik: http://pro.imagehost.biz/ims/pictes/341897.gif]
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Cash Cost
Porgera 401$
Tokuluma 835$
Vatukuola 642$Südseedurchschnitt 562$
SA-Durchschnitt 503$
DRD 526$
Aber auch Blyvoors Untertage-Cashkosten von 627 $ können sich sehen lassen.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.iexplore.com/images…uth_pacific/fiji/fiji.jpg]
Südseeträume im Spiegel eines Analysten
“They are not saying very much. My view is that things are probably worse than one thinks rather than better,” the analyst said.
aus:
DRDGOLD delivers quarterly shocker
http://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/367681.htm -
Gratulation MWW, Droopy hat´s wieder mal geschafft!
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.miningweekly.co.za/dynamicimage/12628.png]
UPDATE 1-
DRDGOLD's headline loss widens in Q1, costs up
Thu Nov 2, 2006 1:35 AM ET(Adds details, share price)
JOHANNESBURG, Nov 2 (Reuters) - South Africa's DRDGOLD <DRDJ.J> posted a deeper headline loss per share in its fiscal first quarter on Thursday as costs surged.
DRDGOLD, South Africa's fourth largest gold producer, said its headline loss per share from continuing operations was 20.6 South African cents, which compared with a loss of 7.8 cents in the previous quarter.
DRDGOLD said gold production for the three months to end September rose 14 percent to 150,197 ounces while a weak rand also helped revenue grow by 22 percent to 642.1 million rand ($86.80 million).
But these improvements were wiped out by a 44 percent surge in cash operating costs. On a unit basis, cash operating costs jumped 26 percent to 121,185 rand per kg and in dollar terms, rose 14 percent to $526 per ounce.
DRDGOLD -- which has operations in South Africa, Papua New Guinea and Fiji -- said output in South Africa rose 1 percent to 91,339 ounces while production overseas soared 41 percent to 58,858 ounces.
The firm spun off the Australasian assets into a separate vehicle, Emperor Mines Ltd (EMP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research), listed on the Australian stock exchange, of which DRDGOLD owns 79 percent.
DRD shares, which have risen 5 percent this year, closed up 0.5 percent at 9.75 rand on Friday in Johannesburg and finished 3.88 percent higher at $1.34 in New York (DROOY.O: Quote, Profile, Research).
http://today.reuters.com/news/…RALS-DRDGOLD-UPDATE-1.XML -
Div. Firmenpräsentationen von dem Mining Metals/Oil & Gas Congress Dubai 2006:
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GOLDEN PHOENIX RECEIVES FINAL APPROVAL FOR FULL-SCALE
OPERATIONS AT ASHDOWN MOLYBDENUM MINE
-- FIRST U.S. MOLY MINE ON LINE IN CURRENT BULL MARKET --SPARKS, NV, Nov. 1, 2006 - Golden Phoenix Minerals, Inc. (OTC Bulletin
Board: GPXM - News) today announced that the Bureau of Land
Management (BLM) has approved the Plan of Operations for the Ashdown
molybdenum and gold mine located in Humboldt County, Nevada. ...Approval of the Plan of Operations makes Ashdown the first new U.S.
molybdenum mine to come on line
during the current commodity bull
market. ...Robert Martin, Executive Vice President of Golden Phoenix, commented,
“As moly prices continue to consolidate at historically high levels, our
mining crews are starting to deliver high-grade material to the mill.
Working with Win-Eldrich through our LLC Management Committee, we
are preparing to ramp up the production and sale of moly concentrates as
rapidly as possible.” -
GOLD producer DRDGOLD almost doubled the pay of CEO Mark Wellesley-Wood after he oversaw a fourth consecutive annual loss,
reported Bloomberg News citing information from DRDGOLD's annual report.Wellesley-Wood was paid R10m in salary, contract payments and a performance bonus in the year to June up from R5.15m a year earlier, reported Bloomberg News.
DRDGOLD's stock gained 15% over the past year, the worst performance among the four biggest gold producers traded in Johannesburg, Bloomberg News reported.
http://www.miningmx.com/wts/360062.htm -
Minesite:
Oxus Gold (AIM: OXS) stood out once again this week, and, as has become usual, for all the wrong reasons. The shares crashed 48 per cent to 7.5p after a regional court in Uzbekistan issued a ruling to Amantaytau Goldfields (AGF), Oxus’ 50 per cent owned producing operation in Uzbekistan, demanding the payment of taxes of US$15.3 million, related fines and penalties of US$4.9 million, plus a whopping US$203.6 million in relation to ‘alleged transgressions relating to the operation of AGF’s overseas foreign currency bank account’.Amantaytau is a joint venture with the government of Uzbekistan, which seems to have decided to get rid of Oxus altogether. Although the company is appealing ‘the majority of the ruling’, the net result will likely be the loss of Oxus’ sole remaining asset. Oxus’ subsidiary, Marakand Minerals (AIM: MKD) has seemingly been dispossessed of its Khandiza project in Uzbekistan, and the situation with AGF makes the Khandiza situation look even worse. Accordingly, Marakand shares fell 11 per cent to 4p.
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Crew soll von New Island Resources (NIS) eine Verarbeitungsanlage für das Nalunaqerz gekauft haben. Der Vertrag mit Rio Narcea läuft aus und diese scheinen ihre Mühle schließen zu wollen. Künftig würde das Erz von Grönland also nach Neufundland, Kanada, statt nach Spanien verschifft werden. Crew zahlt mit 3 Mio eigenen Aktien.
Daneben kann Crew einen 60%igen Anteil an dem Glover Island Goldprojekt durch Explorationsaufwendungen von 5 Mio C$ innerhalb von 5 Jahren erwerben.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.newislandresources.com/images/photos/5e.jpg]
Looking north to Lunch Pond (foreground) and Kettle Pond. The Discovery Vein Prospect on hill east of Kettle Pond contains grab samples > 35 g/t gold and channel sample of 10.58 g/t over 3.6 m. Note the Kettle Pond South Zone is located on the south end of Kettle Pond. This zone contains an indicated geological resource of 450,000 tonnes at 2.3 g/t gold.Aus NIS´ Webseite (http://www.newislandresources.com
Glover Island Property
Highlights
- Large property comprising 4069 hectares
- Gold, Buchans style VMS and Platinum Group Metals (PGM)
- 16 kilometer gold mineralized zone
- High tonnage, low grade (2.09/t AU) target with high grade (5.15 g/t AU) shoots
- Numerous quartz veins with bonanza grades (>35 g/t AU)
- Seeking Joint Venture partner to further develop and bring into production -
Straits gesteht ein, daß die Tritton Grube unter gegenwärtigen Bedingungen nicht wirtschaftlich betrieben werden kann und begeht Vertragsbruch. Nun kommt ein Rechtsstreit auf Straits zu. Wenn dieser gewonnen werden sollte, wäre das natürlich super; wenn nicht, sehr übel, dann ist klar, daß Tritton Jahre hinaus Verluste produziert.
It has become apparent that under the terms of the existing Copper Concentrate Offtake Agreement with Sempra Metals & Concentrates Corporation (Sempra) that Tritton is unable to economically produce copper concentrate given prevailing market and mining conditions. Continuing to
supply concentrates to Sempra under current contract terms would mean that production would need to be financed at a significant loss.
Under these circumstances, Tritton has taken the position that the Copper
Concentrate Offtake Agreement with Sempra is frustrated by operation of law.
On this basis Tritton will proceed to sell its ongoing copper concentrate
production on market related terms. -
Was der Siebholz für´n Quatsch erzählt hat:
"Die Erzmengen in Titiribi werden bis zu einer Milliarde Tonnen Gestein geschätzt, von denen ca. 220 Mio. Tonnen mit Goldgehalten von 1 Gramm pro Tonne erfasst sein sollen."Statt 1g/t Au sind´s jetzt nur 0,4 g/t, statt 1 Mrd Tonnen nur 0,72 Mrd.
Bestenfalls ein Goldäquivalenz von 1 g/t, das muß aber auch mit sehr hohen Kupferpreisen gerechnet sein.
Bei diesen extrem niedrigen Gehalten von 0,4 g/t Gold und unter 0,2% Ku werden sie ´s wohl ein wenig schwer haben, eine Finanzierung auf den Weg zu bringen.
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Kaum bin ich hier reingerutscht, brechen die Produktionszahlen an fast allen Fronten ein.
Die gute, alte Tritton Mine hat zu Cashkosten von 0,90 USD produziert, sehr schön. Dummerweise ist die ganze Produktion zu 1,05 $ bereits verkauft, so daß die Grube Straits nur rote Zahlen liefern dürfte.
Immerhin wurde quasi die ganze Produktion zur Reduktion der Vorwärtsverkäufe benutzt, aber immer noch sind über 35.000t für 1,05$ abzuliefern. Besserung dann ab 2009. [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000563.gif] -
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Bin auch noch bei IGE dabei.
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IGE (4,75) Update from presentation 23/10 (Buy)
IGE revealed some useful information of the Angolan diamond concessions. Whereas the ratification by Angola’s Ministry of Geology and Mines, already achieved, is legally binding for the alluvial concession, the kimberlite concession demands ratification by the Angolan government office as well. IGE indicated that the ratification should be reached within 2-4 weeks when also more technical and specific information will be exposed.
The major reason for the delay of the first concession was to achieve the status as “approved operator” by Endiama (the state-owned diamond company in Angola). Having successfully achieved this, future negotiations will be much faster. IGE declared that they were already in negotiations of a second concession that could be obtained already in December. Regarding the further two concessions, IGE indicated that the third concession could be obtained by March/April and the final, much more matured, concession should be finalized within the next year.
IGE and Endiama has also formed a strategic relationship were IGE and SGU (the Swedish governmental geological agency) will help Endiama with diamond exploration activities. We believe that the relationship with Endiama could be the start of a long and prosperous co-operation that will generate substantial business opportunities.
Management announced that they had been offered information regarding other minerals, in addition to diamonds, as well by the government. Angola is currently booming, 2005 the GDP increased by 26% mainly due to oil and diamonds exports. However, other minerals have previously been neglected. Given the geology of the country, it is clearly interesting for exploration of other minerals as well. Consequently we are very encouraged by the strategic position IGE now has achieved in Angola.
The drilling results from the exploration programme in Kenya are delayed as the company was forced to change laboratory. Management expected results in November, early December.
Regarding the projects in the Scandinavian portfolio, which definitely shouldn’t be neglected, management was very bullish regarding two particular projects.
Lindbastmora, the zinc project in the mining district of Bergslagen, is currently being drilled and the results announced so far (Q2 report) are very encouraging. IGE has allocated Gunnar Eriksson, former geologist from Boliden for the exploration. Boliden conducted exploration in the area in the 60s but rejected the area due to the low metal prices of the time, thus Mr. Eriksson has an excellent knowledge of the area. Boliden’s Garpenberg mine and Lundin Mining’s zinc mine, two of Sweden’s largest mines are located here.
Finally, IGE’s gold project Bidjovagge in Norway, which already has an indicated resource of ca 126k oz is currently being explored. IGE has a target of defining a resource of minimum 500k oz of gold here. Results from the exploration are expected within this year.
We are very encouraged by IGE’s progress and consequently keep our target of NOK 8,50.
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Schon ist die Pre-Feas. raus und der Kurs springt um 12 % nach oben.
Jetzt sollte Morales nicht querschießen.