Beiträge von Ulfur

    WESTERN AREAS
    South Deep’s gold production could be halved for a year
    Posted: Wed, 10 May 2006


    Early repair estimate says mine could be out for twelve months, while alternate shaft can only haul half the tonnage. Costs will balloon
    ....
    Effect on the hedge


    The lower production also means that Western Areas will probably be delivering its entire portion of production from the mine into its hedge book 8o over the period of shaft repair.


    At the release of its annual report last month, Western Areas said that in 2006 gold production delivered into the hedge would be about 53% of total production compared to 70.7% the year before.


    Because of Thursday’s accident the company may even have to borrow gold to service the hedge if it cannot fill the quota. Marcus says JV partner Barrick could even assist.


    The board was given permission at the meeting to issue 10% of the company’s shares for cash, which is now needed more than ever to keep Western Areas solvent.
    http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/306713.htm


    Wenn man die gesamte Produktion ins Hedgebuch liefern muß, nützen 700 Dollar die Unze auch nichts. :D


    Auch ohne Harry geht der Trouble bei WAR weiter.

    Godmode Trader "Der Wert des ETFs wird nach Angaben von Barclays durch die physische Hinterlegung von derzeit 100 Millionen Unzen Silber gestützt."


    So´n Quatsch. Es sind gerade mal 44 mio Unzen im ETF.


    Profile as of 05/05/2006


    Total Net Assets $619,011,263


    Ounces of Silver
    in Trust 43,997,858


    Shares Outstanding 4,400,000


    Tonnes of Silver
    in Trust 1,368.5



    NAV per SLV in Silver 99.989%
    http://www.ishares.com

    CRU - Dagens anbefaling fra Orion
    Crew (15,00), som vil bli blant de 20 største produsentene
    av gull i 2008, fremstår fortsatt som et av de mest
    interessante casene på børsen. Når produksjonen tar
    seg opp i 2007 og 2008 skyter inntjeningen i været. I
    våre estimater ligger vi inne med EPS for 2007 og
    2008 på henholdsvis 3,30 og 3,77. På dagens kurs tilsvarer
    dette P/E på 4,5 for 2007 fallende til 4,0 for
    2008. Sammenlignet med peers indikerer dette en attraktiv
    oppside i papiret. Vi opererer for øyeblikket med
    et 6-måneders kursmål på 25 kroner.



    .. Verglichen mit Peers zeigt das ein attraktives Aufwärtspotential des Papiers an.
    Wir operieren für den Moment mit einem 6-Monatskursziel von 25 Kronen. =)

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.minesite.com/assets/minesitelogowhite.gif]
    Minews Story
    Date: May 04, 2006


    Crew Gold Corporation Moves Steadily Towards Mid-Tier Status

    By Jack Hammer


    Crew Gold Corporation is listed in Oslo and Toronto; has assets in Guinea, Greenland, Norway, South Africa and the Philippines; and is run out of Weybridge in the UK. Chief executive Jan Vestrum isn’t bothered by all that geographical diversity, though. On the contrary it’s central to the Crew strategy. What’s more he’s just poached [abwerben] someone from Newmont to do all the travelling between projects on his behalf, so the three airline gold cards he holds in his wallet may now have to be stood down. Mr Vestrum’s arguments in favour of the geographical diversity are sensible, although out of step with prevailing orthodoxy on the London markets.


    In expounding[erklären] Crew’s strategy Mr Vestrum begins by stating that, “very few mining companies can prove that they get any synergies out of being focussed in one geographical area”. There are some obvious counter-arguments to that statement, but the key to his thinking is that he doesn’t want Crew to be exposed to only one kind of political risk, arguing instead that, “as a mining company the quality of the project is key”. This is a classic dilemma for a small mining company, indeed for any investor looking to balance risk and reward, but Mr Vestrum’s decision to go for diversity may also go some way to explaining why he won’t contemplate a UK listing either, since the City has in recent years favoured clear focus over diversification.


    One obvious example of a company roughly handled by London because of its tendency to diversity is Cambridge Mineral Resources, which with assets in Columbia, Peru, Spain and Bulgaria, constantly struggles to justify the combination. Likewise when Mexican silver miner Minco bought an asset in Siberia, eyebrows were raised, heads scratched, and shares sold. Caledonia Mining is another company that finds its geographical diversity a hard sell, and even Algy Cluff worries that the phrase “Pan African” on the cover of his annual report is too general and not specific enough to his west African area of focus.


    Crew is slightly different though. In spite of Mr Vestrum’s slightly eccentric argument that the company’s diverse portfolio of assets can be efficiently co-ordinated with effective IT, it’s perhaps unfair to lump the company in with the likes of Cambridge and Minco, both of which are smaller companies. Indeed Crew is in some ways diametrically opposed to Cambridge, which seems to want to operate lots of little mines. Mr Vestrum says that after Crew goes through its 600,000 ounce per annum target in 2007 he wants to take the company up to the million ounce mark. “But not with ten 100,000 ounce mines, with bigger ones”. So far that kind of plan looks realistic, especially if the fair wind of the strong gold price prevails.


    The current production profile is based on Crew’s three key assets, the Lefa gold mine in Guinea, which should produce 350,000 ounces per year by 2008, the Apex project in the Philippines, which should produce 200,000, and the Nanaluq project in Greenland, which should produce around 100,000. By that stage the company hopes to have just under 3.5 million ounces in reserves, with another 9 million in the measured and indicated resource categories, and to be producing at cash costs of just US$222 per ounce. If it can achieve all that then the Norwegian investors who’ve recently been building stakes should be very happy indeed. =)


    There’s some work to be done, though. Cash costs for 2005 were US$391/oz, but with the Guinea operations acquired with another Norwegian company, Guinor Gold, now under its belt Crew is a different beast. Cash costs there had run at around US$500/oz, but a new 6.5-7 million tonnes per year carbon- in- leach plant due for commissioning in the fourth quarter of this year will get costs down to around US$220/oz. Meanwhile other moves are afoot. Mr Vestrum hints that more deals may be done in the Philippines, and plans to spin off the company’s base metals assets on the Canadian markets continue to progress. In recent months Crew’s share price has risen by over C$1 to C$2.70. Much of that rise may be due to the strong gold price, but as Crew moves steadily towards mid-tier status it may well consolidate those gains.
    http://www.minesite.com/storyFull5.php?storySeq=3487

    BHP says copper demand will likely surpass mine supply by 2008


    By Jon Nones
    04 May 2006 at 01:51 PM

    BHP Billiton said today that copper from mines is unlikely to catch up with surging demand by the start of 2008, a longer period than most analysts are predicting.


    "The major independent analysts forecast that the market will move back into surplus later in 2006 or in 2007," said John Crofts, BHP's base metals marketing director.


    "Even a surplus in 2007 looks more doubtful as disruptions to production can still continue to restrict," he said. "This is consistent with BHP Billiton's assessment of the market."

    Polyus Gold goes public


    Polyus Gold will go public. Trading in Polyus shares could be launched on Thursday, May 4. The new company will apply for listing on Russian stock exchanges in May and to issue Level 1 ADRs in May-June, 2006.


    According to NorNickel's management, shares in Polyus Gold, the newly established company to which Norilsk Nickel has assigned all its gold mining assets, could be purchased and sold, as well as freely alienated and assigned starting Thursday, May 4, 2006.


    Polyus Gold intends to apply for a listing on 1-2 Russian stock exchanges in May as part of its unbundling from NorNickel, and to issue Level 1 ADRs in May-June. Shares in this new company were distributed among NorNickel's owners listed on the shareholder register as of January 1, 2006 based on 1:1 distribution ratio.


    Given rising gold demand (gold prices hit their 25-year high on May 3 on the back of geopolitical instability around Iran which was behind the rise in gold demand on the part of market participants), we believe that stocks of this gold mining company will hold strong investment appeal.


    At present, we are in the process of revising our target price of Polyus shares due to changes in forecast gold prices. Our old price was $44 per share. :)
    http://www.fin-rus.com

    Es wäre wohl keine große Überraschung, wenn Simmers dort Erfolg hat, wo DRD versagt hat. Aber warten wir die Simmerszahlen ab, dann läßt sich die Entwicklung besser sehen.


    Leider hat Simmers die BEE-Parasiten am Hals. Gut möglich, daß die bisherigen Direktoren unterliegen und Vulisango das Ruder übernimmt. Da würde auch ich Abstand halten.


    Aberdeen werde ich mal anschauen, danke.


    ------------


    Heute wieder das übliche Tradingmuster:


    Goldpreis: UP!
    Droopy: DOWN!

    Die zweiwöchige Handelsaussetzung seit dem 17.März dauert nun doch schon über 14 Tage. Aber Hoffnung besteht:


    Croesus mending the hedges to get back some glitter


    SHARES in embattled gold miner Croesus Mining could resume trading as early as next week after a late agreement between the Kalgoorlie icon and its two key hedging banks.


    Croesus chairman Michael Kiernan said the company had reached in-principle agreement with Macquarie Bank and Mitsui Precious Metals for a long-term restructure of its onerous hedging commitments, ensuring the miner's survival.


    The two banks last month gave Croesus until April 28 to thrash out a restructure and revival plan, after major production shortfalls and cost blow-outs at its Norseman mines threatened to send it to the wall.


    Mr Kiernan said the matter had gone "to the wire" before both groups agreed to roll-out contracts covering 240,000 ounces of gold on Friday.


    "There was a fair bit of huffing and puffing and I didn't think it was going to go anywhere, but there was an 11th-hour breakthrough and we've now got an agreement to reconstruct that hedge delivery schedule," he said.


    Mr Kiernan said the final details were expected be agreed over the next two weeks, and Croesus' hedging commitments were likely to be extended over two years.


    Once those details were agreed, the stock — which was suspended at 27.5¢ on March 16 — should be able to resume trading soon after.


    Mr Kiernan said Croesus workers had already responded well to the company's problems, resulting in a major lift in productivity that had cut operating costs at Norseman.


    But there was still some way to go before the company hit the production and cost targets laid out in its restructure plan, devised in partnership with turnaround advisers Pitcher Partners.


    "The boys on site are doing their job, and without the hedge, this thing would be making in the order of $18 million to $20 million a year once we get the costs down to where want them," he said.


    The new mine plan aims for production of more than 8000 ounces a month from the Bullen and Harlequin mines, of which roughly half could be sold on the booming spot market.


    Previously, Croesus had been required to deliver about 10,000 ounces a month into hedging contracts struck below $A600 an ounce.


    Mr Kiernan has already brought in a number of former allies from Consolidated Minerals to guide Croesus in its recovery, including finance director David Macoboy, new Croesus chief Allan Quadrio and operations supervisor Barry Cahill.


    Croesus is also contemplating a potential $15-25 million capital raising later this year. :rolleyes:
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/…/05/01/1146335670524.html

    SA miners to report highest gold price ever


    JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- South Africa’s gold miners will probably have achieved their highest quarterly gold price ever in the three months to March, when the companies start to report those numbers at the end of April.


    ...


    In a nutshell, shareholders and, of course, management are sitting a lot prettier than they were a year ago, when prices were much, much lower.
    ...


    Some of South Africa’s largest gold mines have experienced South African cash costs increases of 30% and higher since the first quarter of 2002.


    An extreme example is the first quarter results put out on Friday by DRDGold, South Africa’s fourth largest gold producer. The company’s South African costs have ballooned over the last few years. On Friday an average cost figure of R103,519/kg was released for the first quarter, 6% higher than the previous quarter. Its Blyvooruitzicht mine produced at R109,914/kg in the quarter, compared to a year ago when cash costs were R81,606/kg. That is an increase of 35% in 12 months and perhaps underscores top management’s lack of focus on the company’s South African operations..


    Not surprising again that DRDGold shares, at R9.35 are way off their sale price of R41.21 each in a capital raising performed in May 2002.
    Aus
    http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/280122.htm



    Oder wie Hamilton es vor Jahren noch sah:


    “Durban is a world-class, lightly-hedged, highly-leveraged major gold mining company that is strategically positioned to reap legendary gains in a major new bull market in gold.”

    Auf gute Zahlen muß man bei Silly Sally weiter warten.


    Die Tonnage bleibt unter den geplanten Werten. Die vorzeitige Beendigung der Tagebauphase hinterläßt Spuren. Im Jahresbericht 05 wurde noch von einer Nickelausbeute von 11250 t im Geschäftsjahr 05/06 ausgegangen, das hatte der Halbjahresbericht schon auf 10400 t reduziert.


    Die Oktoberanalyse von Hartleys erwartete einen Jahresgewinn von über 30 Mio A$ , Sally spricht nun von wenigsten 15 Mio (bei 6,85 $/lb Ni) . Das wären 9,1 Cent pro Aktie, eine bescheidene Steigerung zum Vorjahr mit 7,8 Cent.


    Bei Lanfranchi sind die totalen Cash Cost weiterhin über dem Nickelpreis.

    Der Streettrack Gold ETF wird an der Berliner Börse gehandelt (neben Frankfurt und München)
    (US8633071043 / A0DNJ8 )


    Vermutlich wird über kurz oder lang auch der Silber ETF dort gelistet.

    Mahendra: Schwamm drüber!


    Wednesday, April 26, 2006:


    Today I don’t want to dwell on what has happened to me in the last three months, as this kind of period comes in every one’s lifetime; and it came to me after a 24 year astrological career. One thing that has nevertheless been deep in my heart was a long term positive outlook and energy on metals, which is why I kept mentioning that. Anyway, let us start a new beginning with another chapter.



    Als Bonus gibt´s den neuen Newsletter rechtzeitig zu Wochenbeginn,
    jedoch:
    Sunday, April 30, 2006
    As you know, it hasn’t been all well in regard to short-term predictions :rolleyes:, therefore don’t trade on my advice until you see me coming right. Remember that even after the darkest of nights, light always follows at dawn, which is what I am awaiting. Indeed, the new dawn could hopefully begin from this week.